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coolbeans56 33 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 12-09-01, 03:02 AM (EST) "Ethan, Immunity, and Possible Defection" This is my first offical post I have started... so here I go.. I think that Ethan will not win the next immunity to try and save one of his Boran buddies who has votes. Since, this is an even number TC, then he will be safe. Then he can go on a Immunity Run. If I were ANYONE on Samburo, I would be looking at the 5 person TC. If Ethan (or whoever on Boran who is left) wins immunity, then Samburo will have to canabalize. Teresa and Frank will go Brandon Brandon and Li'l Kim will go Frank The Boran will decide who will move on. If the Boran is Tom... then Brandon is gone (Based on comments made int he past, and friendship with Frank and his lust for Teresa) If the Boran is Lex... Look for a toss up (It would be known next episode if he has felt burned by brandon, or if he gets duped into Brandon's scheme completely.. or he just gets desperate.) If the Boran is Ethan... Look for another Toss up (He said he likes frank, but who knows what is going on... he may be pissed at Brandon's spin on the 'Kappa Kelly Catastrophe') IF the Boran is Mama Kim... Seeya Brandon (Based on Mama kim love for Teresa because of 'the switch') Samburo may have numbers... but Boran has the Athlete who could take immunity all the way and mess up a lot of alliances a lot sooner than expected. The 'Kappa Kelly Catasrophy' (Which I have penned last episode's main event due to the massive ramifications for the game of Survivor III) ranks as one of the most potentially significant turns in the American Survivor History. Not since Survivor I's Kelly went on her fabled immunity run when on the balance beam with Colleen has an event changed the game. my two cents... and please respond!!! coolbenas56   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Ethan, Immunity, and Possible D... zzz 12-09-01 1    RE: Ethan, Immunity, and Possible D... tribephyl 12-09-01 2        RE: Ethan, Immunity, and Possible D... gemstone 12-09-01 3            RE: Ethan, Immunity, and Possible D... katem 12-09-01 4                RE: Ethan, Immunity, and Possible D... gemstone 12-09-01 5                RE: Ethan, Immunity, and Possible D... drich61 12-09-01 6        RE: Ethan, Immunity, and Possible D... zzz 12-09-01 7

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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-09-01, 03:02 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Ethan, Immunity, and Possible Defection" I am not sure why so many people seem to think that at the final five, the vote will be 3-2. I think there is a very good possibility that the old Samburu will enter into a final four pact and keep it. If that is the case, the final five vote will be 4-1 to vote off the remaining Boran. People counter this by saying that whoever has the most votes will never agree to this because at final four time, he or she is automatically gone. I say, maybe not. Let us assume that at final five time, Frank has the most votes and Brandon the second most votes. Frank has made a final four promise and feels bound to keep it. Is he being suicidal? NO--he is just banking that he can get immunity at final four time. Why would he do this if he could get rid of Brandon at the final five time? Well--even if he could get the last Boran to agree to do this (no guarantee), he has no guarantee at final four time that Boran won't turn around and vote him out. Frank believes in honor and would likely keep a final four pledge. So Frank knows that he has to win the immunity at final four to stay in the game if he goes this route. If he win immunity, Brandon has the next most votes under my assumption (this assumes Boran starts voting for him after they see he switched back to Samburu) and would be eliminated in a 2-2 vote against Teresa. No matter what Frank does, he takes some risk. I think this is a risk he would be willing to take. If Brandon has the most votes and Frank the second most, the analysis is similar with Brandon needed to win immunity. However, if at final five time Frank has the most votes and Teresa has the second most--then betrayal at final five time might be in order.   Top

tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-09-01, 04:35 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Ethan, Immunity, and Possible Defection" >I am not sure why so >many people seem to think >that at the final five, >the vote will be 3-2. > I think there is >a very good possibility that >the old Samburu will enter >into a final four pact >and keep it. If >that is the case, the >final five vote will be >4-1 to vote off the >remaining Boran. Why so many of us are considering a 3-2 split is because there is a likelyhood that the final remaining Boran will win the IC therefore making it impossible to vote him/her off...leaving the "4 tight Samburu" to indeed start cannablizing.It still could turn into a 4-1 vote but then one of the "Tight 4" would have backstabbed their ally. So most likely it will turn out 3-2. Specially with Frank and Teresa so tight and on the other side we have Brandon and Kim P.(also somewhat tight) This leaves 2 votes for Brandon from T and F and 2 votes for Frank from B and KP and then 1 vote from whomever the Last Boran is for either Frank or Brandon depending on who he/she thinks he/she can't win over jury members from. Make Sense now?   Top

gemstone 70 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 12-09-01, 04:47 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Ethan, Immunity, and Possible Defection" LAST EDITED ON 12-09-01 AT 04:48 PM (EST) The Boran would have the choice of who goes in this case. They would probably choose the partner of one they think they may partner up with in the F4 if possible. They will try not to boot off someone that has more votes than themselves to protect them selves in the F4 if they do manage to partner up with someone. They will try to vote off someone they are least likely to beat in the F2. They may even choose who they think is their biggest IC threat in future ICs. F\T\B\Kp may have little say about who goes in the F5 if the last Boran wins IC.   Top

katem 3315 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 12-09-01, 04:54 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Ethan, Immunity, and Possible Defection" See Gemstone, I think you and Tribe are assuming that the last Boran will win immunity, but in all reality the only possible Boran that could do that is Ethan, and the only way for Ethan to make it there, he will have to win every single immunity challenge, beginning in the episode after this next one. I believe that if Ethan does not do this he will be nuked, and the last Boran will be Mama Kim, and I do not see her as much of a threat for absolutely anything. I agree with ZZZ that Frank will honor a pact with Brandon, KimP and T.   Top

gemstone 70 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 12-09-01, 05:15 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Ethan, Immunity, and Possible Defection" No, I am not assuming that. I was answering the previous post who assumed the targets would be Brandon and Frank. I said they may not be the targets if the last Boran didn't want them to be the target. If the last Boran was Lex, I don't think he would want to be against Teresa but would want to be against Brandon but he would have to weight this against his chances of winning the F4 IC against F\B\Kp or who he may be able to partner up with in the F4 agianst the other pair where votes may matter.   Top

drich61 558 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-09-01, 06:58 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Ethan, Immunity, and Possible Defection" >I agree with ZZZ that Frank >will honor a pact with >Brandon, KimP and T. I to agree if a final 4 pact is made, but I don't see him doing it or even Teresa for that matter. I think they will go along with Brandon and KimP this time and the next show, then they will want to be for themselves. We will just have to watch what the exact wording will be between these 4. Remember Frank and Teresa have also been part of new Boran along with KimJ and Ethan, and they felt much more comfortable with these two than with Brandon and KimP. This is why I feel Tom goes this next week, then Samburu targets Lex. But Brandon goes to Lex telling him the other 3 are voting for him. Brandon will vote for Frank, so if Lex wants to stay alive he and the other 2 must also vote Frank.   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-09-01, 09:23 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Ethan, Immunity, and Possible Defection" tribephyl-- Katem has already made my point, I think, but to clarify what I think is that Brandon's plan is to make a final four pact with Teresa, Frank and KimP. If Brandon does do this, I think there is a good chance that the other three will honor it. If they do, Ethan is gone the first time he loses immunity (other than next vote that has to be Lex or Tom because of the tie break issue). I doubt Ethan would still be there and there is no reason to assume the last Boran would win immunity at final five time. It is possible, but a 4-1 chance against it. Thus, I think Brandon's plan is to have him, KimP, Frank and Teresa vote off the remaining Boran at final five vote in a 4-1 vote. This plan may not work for a variety of reasons, but I think that is what Brandon is thinking at this point, and I think he has good reason to believe it is a plan that would work.   Top

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