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"The Betrayal in Episode 9?"
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Mumbo Jumbo 270 desperate attention whore postings
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12-06-01, 09:04 PM (EST)
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"The Betrayal in Episode 9?"
LAST EDITED ON 12-06-01 AT 09:09 PM (EST)

Posting this before episode 8 airs on the west coast but I may have had a brainstorm. Don't read it if you don't want to know...................

The betrayal next week is Brandon who switches back to vote with the Samburu. Kim Pee is obviously the devastated one over Brandon's betrayal in the vote this week. I think the devil dogs of guilt work over Brandon in the next three days and he agrees to vote back with the original Samburus. As long as Lex does not win immunity, they can target him and win the tiebreaker with his massive number of previous votes. Remember no one knows about Silas' vote for Frank so finding a Samburu target will be strictly guessing for the old Boran.

Brandon would still be guaranteed a top four finish, it depends on how susceptible he is to his friends, the ones he does everything with. Brandon definitely did not think long term. If he sticks with Boran and makes it to the final two, he will have zero votes from his old tribe and probably none from Boran who will also resent him for going to the end. They all need to think about retaining jury votes now.

Lex is stupid and doesn't deserve to win.

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9? Sam Buru 12-06-01 1
   RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9? coolbeans56 12-06-01 3
   RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9? SurvivorBlows 12-06-01 4
       RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9? bergdogg 12-06-01 6
           RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9? I_AM_HE 12-06-01 8
           RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9? SurvivorBlows 12-07-01 13
               RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9? alleyb 12-07-01 23
       RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9? mookiemeister 12-07-01 10
           RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9? SurvivorBlows 12-07-01 14
               RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9? alleyb 12-07-01 25
           RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9? SurvivorBlows 12-07-01 16
               RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9? mockingbird 12-07-01 17
                   RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9? fyrenice 12-07-01 20
               RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9? zzz 12-07-01 29
           RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9? Afreaqua 12-07-01 27
       RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9? Afreaqua 12-07-01 26
 Do not read if you don't want an Ea... NorthOfBoston 12-06-01 2
   RE: Do not read if you don't want a... Lockescythe 12-06-01 5
   RE: Do not read if you don't want a... ADKer 12-06-01 7
       RE: Do not read if you don't want a... managerr 12-07-01 9
           RE: Do not read if you don't want a... katem 12-07-01 11
               RE: Do not read if you don't want a... mookiemeister 12-07-01 15
           RE: Do not read if you don't want a... Seyz 12-07-01 18
   RE: Do not read if you don't want a... mookiemeister 12-07-01 12
       RE: Do not read if you don't want a... Yazimodo 12-07-01 19
           RE: Do not read if you don't want a... Naked 12-07-01 21
               RE: Do not read if you don't want a... Yazimodo 12-07-01 22
   RE: Do not read if you don't want a... Afreaqua 12-07-01 28
 RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9? jayseae 12-07-01 24
 RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9? SurvivorGuy 12-07-01 30

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Sam Buru 40 desperate attention whore postings
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12-06-01, 09:48 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9?"
You are forgetting that Tom has three votes. It doesn't matter, Tom or Lex will lose in a tiebreaker. The only votes are the two against Frank. Old Samburu is playing with a pat hand, they can't lose if Brandon switches back. Both Lex and Tom cannot win immunity!

If Brandon would have voted against Lex, their hand would not be perfect. They are definately smart enough to figure this out, Brandon could say that was his plan all along.

Brandon has total control of the game at this point. OB offers fifth place best, OS can do better.

Now lets sit back and see how MB can edit this situation.

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coolbeans56 33 desperate attention whore postings
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12-06-01, 10:12 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9?"
Now, I can see Brandon desperately winning the Reward Challenge next week, takes Lil'Kim and tell her that he is back with them.


Here is what I see.


Brandon sucessfully made sure that only BORAN got votes.

Lex SAID, that BRANDON told him that Kelly was a free Agent...

so they lined up...

Kappa Kelly is gone... Biggest theat, because T, and Lil'kim liked her

Lex has 6 votes
Tom has 3 Votes
Frank has 1 Unknown vote

No matter who wins Immunity... A Boran is gone... unless Sambohoo screws up.

But that doesn;t mean Brandon is gone no matter what.

Hypothetically...

Lex wins immunity.... Tom goes (Or vice versa, but this works better)

Moma Kim, and Ethan hold fast.

Samburo has a 4-3 advantage

Following week, Tom goes

Samburo has 4-2 advantage

Brandon THEN switches to Moma Kim and Ethan, because his head is on the plate. 3-3 tie, no prior votes, Brandon has a good chance to win the trivia... unless the pick Frank... then he is guarenteed third...

just a thought..coolbeans56

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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
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12-06-01, 10:18 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9?"
LAST EDITED ON 12-06-01 AT 10:19 PM (EST)

>If Brandon would have voted against Lex, their hand would not
>be perfect. They are definately smart enough to figure
>this out, Brandon could say that was his plan all
>along.

It would be better than perfect. There would be THREE core Borans left (Tom, Ethan, MamaKim.) They'd have a fourth Boran with them (Kelly.)

Kelly would have 4 previous votes, Tom would have 3.

Kelly wouldn't have ANY CHANCE to defect back because even if she did so and created a 4-4 tie, Frank's two votes would still be less than those of either Tom or Kelly herself (who they could target in fear should Tom have won immunity.)

The bottom line is Brandon's decision makes NO STRATEGIC SENSE. He could have accomplished the same thing or something even better without throwing everything into disarray. Whatever happens now, no one will fully trust him again.

-SB

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bergdogg 380 desperate attention whore postings
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12-06-01, 11:03 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9?"
>The bottom line is Brandon's decision
>makes NO STRATEGIC SENSE.
>He could have accomplished the
>same thing or something even
>better without throwing everything into
>disarray. Whatever happens now,
>no one will fully trust
>him again.

WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?!?!?!?!?!

I think Brandon knew EXACTLY what he was doing. He and Kim P are together till the end (That whole Gen-X thing). Brandon did this to even things up at 4-4. Do you actually believe that this wasn't all part of the plan???

THINK ABOUT THIS NOW:

Brandon, Kim P, and Teresa are sitting discussing the upcoming tribal counsil vote. We hear the line: "If we are going to make a stand, we will have to do this at this tribal counsil." So the three make a devious plan. I am sure that Brandi and KimPee know that Teresa was "the snake". So, BRANDON, considered weak and easily despensible by the Borans, would be the perfect person to "TURN" on the Samboohoo's. Lex is thinking, "He is weak enough to get rid of after we kill of the rest of the Samburu's, and if I can get him to my side, I can get rid of that snake." At this point, Lex was pointed out by Brandon to "THE SNAKE", who happens to be his Boran tribe member. Lex's ego gets the best of him, and he believes that he must get rid of her NOW. So, T-Bird, KimPee, and Brandi's plan worked out perfectly tonight. They were able to take advantage of Kelly's anger towards Lex. They found out how Kelly REALLY felt about Lex while he was away, and put it all together. So, Brandi is a double agent, and will follow the plans of the Boran all the way up to the vote, where THE TRUTH is revealed."

This all came to me when Brandon said, "This is my ticket to the final four." Sure, Lex could have told him he is garanteed the final four if he votes this way, but what makes more sense. Vote with them, with the full knowledge of his Samboohoo buddies. They vote with Kelly to pound on the votes toward Lex, as insurance.

It makes more sense for Brandi to stay with a GARANTEED FINAL FOUR than with an ALMOST GaRANTEED ONE. Brandi looks over at Samboohoo and see three others. He looks at Boring and see 4 others. The #'s fit to stay with the tribe that got him to paydirt. He is garanteed the final four with Samburu (barring immunity).

I have the belief that Brandi, KimPee, Teresa, and either Frank or KimJ is your final four. I think that Lex has screwed himself tonight. He let his ego get the best of him. He just couldn't wait to get rid of the baggage for three more days. This show me that he also didn't trust his Boran members enough. He may have thought that if he didn't throw off Kelly now, he would get voted out next week ala Jerri. I doubt it, and now think he has screwed himself over.

Brandi could not have done something that would be this monumentally stupid unless he has some monumentally engenious plan to go with it. I think he does have a plan, and it hopefully will be proven next week.

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I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings
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12-06-01, 11:24 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9?"
yep, Brandon finally showed he has a brain
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
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12-07-01, 00:46 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9?"
berg, you just aren't getting my point... even if Brandon's plan works... why do it??? What did it get you that the much simplier "vote for Lex tonight" plan wouldn't have gotten?

Either way Lex is gone. If he'd voted for Lex tonight he'd have been in a poistion to take out TOM or ETHAN next week -- both of whom are much bigger threats than KELLY.

I think the folks who think this is all an act by the Samburus are reading WAAAYYYYY too much into this -- but if it's true I think the awards shows should change their rules and start allowing reality TV show players to be nominated for the "best actor" and "best actress" categories -- because it would have been one hell of a performance.

Yes, Brandon made the comment to Lex that Kelly was saying she was a "free agent" to Teresa (a scene we never saw to know whether it was true) but I think its a stretch. If Brandon was really a double agent and Teresa and LittleKim knew of it, I doubt we'd have seen that scene of them talking about the vote while standing at the water tank.

The "this is all a super secret plot by the Samburus" is a nice idea, but I think it is extremely doubtful.

-SB

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alleyb 98 desperate attention whore postings
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12-07-01, 07:14 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9?"
Personal opinion: Brandon is sitting pretty as long as he appeases the remaining Samburus. Brandon chose to go for the person who was the least risk for any real long-term remifacations in Boran (which translates to potential jury votes and also translates to more short-term safety in the coming Eps). He has now proven something to the main Boran alliance, something he wouldn't have proven to them had he gone against them. Now, if he does go ahead and screw Lex & Co., he has proven that he is a worthy winner by outsmarting them all. If he hadn't, he would be seen as a person who just went along with the old Samburus, not something that gains any respect in the final votes. He now has to successfully walk a line between the two disparate sides of the remaining survivors...but his best move will be to rejoin with the old Samburus to prove that his vote for Kelly was a respectable choice. Otherwise...he'll just have to settle for fifth in the old Boran tribe, something I am sure he had no intention of doing by voting with Lex et al in Ep. 8.
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mookiemeister 284 desperate attention whore postings
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12-07-01, 00:35 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9?"

>
>The bottom line is Brandon's decision
>makes NO STRATEGIC SENSE.
>He could have accomplished the
>same thing or something even
>better without throwing everything into
>disarray. Whatever happens now,
>no one will fully trust
>him again.
>
>-SB

Actually, Brandon is extremely smart in doing what he did this episode by convincing Lex that Kelly is a 'free agent'. This cause Old-Boran to fracture. And now with 4 Old Boran and 4 Old Samburu and 2 Old Boran (Tom and Lex) with more votes than any Old Samburu, a Boran is definitely gone next week! His voting for either Kelly or Lex is not the most important part of his game play. It's his telling to Lex that Kelly is a 'free agent' that is his 'power play of the week'!

Put yourself in Brandon's shoe and see if it make any sense. He could vote with Old Samburu based on what Kim P told him that Kelly may defect. But he has no way to be sure that Kelly is telling Kim P the truth! But he did talk with Lex about Kelly being a 'free agent'. And he probably noticed Lex being very angry about it. So he knows Lex will definitely vote for Kelly. So if you are Brandon with these information, wouldn't you have voted for Kelly too? It doesn't matter to him which Boran got kicked out as long as one got kicked out this week and there are 4 Boran and 4 Samburu left (with 2 Borans with a bunch of votes).

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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
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12-07-01, 00:49 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9?"
If the purpose is to "breakup" the Borans I'd agrue that booting LEX would have done that even more effectively. Lex's ouster would have removed Lex from the game and left THREE Borans who would clearly be fractured from Kelly.

Instead after tonight we know have FOUR Borans, with no clear fracture at this point.

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alleyb 98 desperate attention whore postings
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12-07-01, 07:42 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9?"
Yes, but would that have done Brandon any good personally in his standings in the game? He is now in a great position to gain respect from both sides of the tribe looking toward the end. If he had gone along with the Samburus, he just would have shown himself to be voting along tribal lines. By voting with Boran, he has proven something to them. He is his own player, something that will gain respect in the final voting (and I'm sure he is looking ahead to that).

Sure, Brandon had a chance to break up the strength of the Boran alliance directly. BUT now he has gone along with them, yet still broken their power. Now he has total control in the next vote, and will still be able to break up their strength, yet has a unique position where he is in the driver's seat. They now NEED his vote, and still hope they have it. He has to know, even before the Ep. 8 TC, that going into Ep. 9—where there will be even numbers in the TC voting—he can get rid of either Lex or Tom at will (depending on Immunity). Sure he doesn't like Frank, but Frank will go along with whatever gets him further in the game, which will be a great help to Brandon in the next few weeks.

Ultimately Brandon has put himself in a better position by temporarily aligning with Boran. Otherwise he would have a hard time getting respect in the final vote.

Let's see...if he had gone along with Samburu...Lex would be gone, and Boran would be really shaken up, with all of them trying to get votes against Brandon in the short-term for lying to them. With an unloyal Frank, this would be a very feasable task. His biggest task now is to convince Samburu that he did what was right for all of them by voting for Kelly, something that obviously creates big suspicion against him in the short-term. If he can reassure Samburu that he is now in a power position as a double agent, he can create a real power base without alerting Boran to it. Brilliant.

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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
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12-07-01, 00:59 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9?"
>Put yourself in Brandon's shoe and
>see if it make any
>sense. He could vote
>with Old Samburu based on
>what Kim P told him
>that Kelly may defect.
>But he has no way
>to be sure that Kelly
>is telling Kim P the
>truth! But he did talk with Lex about Kelly
>being a 'free agent'. And he probably noticed Lex
>being very angry about it. So he knows Lex
>will definitely vote for Kelly. So if you are
>Brandon with these information, wouldn't
>you have voted for Kelly too? It doesn't matter
>to him which Boran got kicked out as long as
>one got kicked out this week and there are 4
>Boran and 4 Samburu left (with 2 Borans with a
>bunch of votes).

The only way EITHER scenario works for him is if he believes Lex and crew are targetting Kelly. And if he believed that, then he's FOOLISH to not take out the leader of the opposition (and one of their strongest members) when he had the chance.

Next week he'd still have 4 Boran and 4 Samburu -- with 2 Boarns (Kelly and Tom) still with a bunch of votes. Except instead he'd also have chopped off the leadership head of the Borans, clearly have one of the other Boran on the Samburu team, and not have created any internal tribal trauma in the process.

I'm sorry, but there's no way you can convince me that this was the smart vote. If he TRULY BELIEVED Lex and crew were after Kelly then he also had to TRULY BELIEVE Kelly would vote with Samburu. If he had any doubts that KELLY was not Boran's target then he should have cast a vote for Lex and kept his fingers crossed. In no scenario is this the smart move -- you don't trade a defecting 125 pound girl for a "enemy" strong guy when at this point in the game STRENGTH is a major advantage. If nothing else he know he had a free shot at the clear Boran leader THIS week. Next week, maybe not. You don't pass on a bird in the hand for the chance of getting the same bird back in the bush again.

-SB

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mockingbird 61 desperate attention whore postings
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12-07-01, 02:00 AM (EST)
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17. "RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9?"
On Survivor Insider Brandon's comments while writing down Kelly's name were a little longer and gave a clearer picture to his reasoning-he said that this way he get's rid of a Boran member, making the teams even(it's clear he did not think of Kelly as an ally..mentioned something about how she tried to get rid of him in the past..trust, etc.) then said that next tribal council Samburu's could vote for one of the Boran's who has previous votes. So, whether or not all of the Samburu's knew of the plan, Brandon certainly had thought it out. He said so. Perhaps it was smart to just keep quiet about it. Kelly was a clean slate, Lex now has more votes. This stops an even tie-breaker in the future where a test might have to be given(Carl and Lindsay). He simply did not know what Kelly would have done had she been permitted to stay. It appears to be a good move on his part...planting that little seed of doubt.
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fyrenice 91 desperate attention whore postings
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12-07-01, 02:42 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9?"
LAST EDITED ON 12-07-01 AT 02:43 AM (EST)

I'm with SB all the way. The point everyone is not getting is it did not give Samburu any advantage. It just hurt Brandon. Frank already doesn't trust him, and I bet Teresa has a lot of doubts also. It still would have been 4/4. Tom has votes. Kelly may have been for real which would have helped him and Kim if Teresa and Frank turn on him. They would still have two former Boran with votes. The only difference would have been one was a possible alliance. If Kelly was lying, what did it matter. It only mattered if Lex was lying. Brandon should have stopped after giving the information and appearing to defect. At TC, he should have voted with his alliance. He would have gained a possible alliance, got rid of the Boran leader, and got rid of a strong challenger.
Fyre

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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
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12-07-01, 09:38 AM (EST)
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29. "RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9?"
Here is why I think Brandon may have made the right choice and why he did not want to tell the other old Samburu. If he voted out Kelly, he would be in a five person alliance because Kelly would be welcomed with open arms. Given the tension between Brandon and Frank, Kelly would become the swing vote that Brandon thought he would be on the losing end of. He could not consult with old Samburu because they would not have agreed with him on taking out Kelly. Teresa and Frank had very good reason to want Kelly in the alliance--to out vote KimP and Brandon at the end. Brandon HAD to force the situation and hope that old Samburu would forgive him and take him back. Otherwise he was virtually guaranteed 5th place when Kelly, Frank and Teresa took him out. With Tom's and Lex's prior votes, old Samburu is guaranteed the advantage next vote.

A five person alliance is inherently unstable because there is an inherent imbalance of power. Someone who sees they are either in the 2 person suballiance outnumber by the other 3 person suballiance has reason to defect. Even worse--someone who sees themselves clearly as the fifth person (as Kelly did) MUST defect eventually (Lex was an idiot to let Kelly know this--but he has bigger problems I will discuss elsewhere).

So Brandon took a risk--but it was a smart and calculated risk. We will find out next time if it worked.

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Afreaqua 181 desperate attention whore postings
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12-07-01, 08:53 AM (EST)
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27. "RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9?"
>>Actually, Brandon is extremely smart in doing what he did this episode by convincing Lex that Kelly is a 'free agent'. <<

That part of it was smart....voting Kelly off over Lex was dumb....maybe he has a crush on Lex??

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Afreaqua 181 desperate attention whore postings
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12-07-01, 08:48 AM (EST)
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26. "RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9?"
>>The bottom line is Brandon's decision makes NO STRATEGIC SENSE. He could have accomplished the same thing or something even better without throwing everything into disarray. Whatever happens now, no one will fully trust him again.<<

I agree. Brandon MAY be the next to go if he doesn't win immunity. Tom never really liked him and he's pi**ed off the Samboohoos big time. He's a fifth wheel in his new "alliance". He is not trustworthy which is obvious to all (unlike Theresa who's vote against Lex, who she didn't know from Adam was due to a promise she had made...I hope he never finds out about it). I don't think it would be a big deal for the remaining Borans to sacrifice Brandon at all. While I don't like Brandon, he is one of the more interesting characters left.

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NorthOfBoston 158 desperate attention whore postings
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12-06-01, 10:11 PM (EST)
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2. "Do not read if you don't want an East Coast spoiler"
Yes I think that scenario is a definite possibility seeing that Brandon does seem to have all the power at this point.

My prediction for the FINAL FOUR!

Ethan (he'll stay around just because he's got charisma)
Kim Pee (under the radar extraordinaire)
Kim J (echo)
Brandon (the power man)

ps: I hope you are reading this RoseRed, because I know you were laughing just as hard as I was when Ethan picked Lex to go on the trip. . . YEAH RIGHT he wanted to choose the one who came in second: WE know what what really going on in that truck! In Lex's own words, "a real ball-buster!"

pps: I am quite devastated that my main girl Kelly is out of play. Lex is without a doubt the next to go.

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Lockescythe 52 desperate attention whore postings
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12-06-01, 10:50 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Do not read if you don't want an East Coast spoiler"
Im not gonna say much but I believe that was the best episode ever. Period.

All Im going to say is ethan screams amber.

But then again he thinks tina is hot so he has no judgement at all in game or in women.

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ADKer 143 desperate attention whore postings
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12-06-01, 11:17 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Do not read if you don't want an East Coast spoiler"
Ethan could make it to the final by winning every immunity challenge. He is a superior athlete and won a more intellectual challenge tonite. Ethan my control the game by winning the challenges. Teresa is the most interesting character I have seen on survivor and poor Lex is a dink.
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managerr 1959 desperate attention whore postings
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12-07-01, 00:25 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: Do not read if you don't want an East Coast spoiler"
Things to consider:

- Brandon has shown he is willing to be the goat. He was willing to do it for Lindsey--why not the rest of old Samburu?

- Teresa said that she did not trust Kelly after Kim told her of the plan. (Keep in mind that she might have wanted Kelly as an ally because she was a potential mall rat in the making)

- No confessional time in the previews. Showing the clip of Kim P yelling out Brandon was good--but why no clip saying how "betrayed" she felt?

- The episode the following week is called "We Are Family"--this to me implies some sort of Samburu reunification.

- I do think it's very possible that this was some sort of elaborate scheme set up by Samburu. Kim P wins the Emmy for "Best Performance in a Dramatic Series" and someone from Samburu is a million dollars richer.

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katem 3315 desperate attention whore postings
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12-07-01, 00:41 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Do not read if you don't want an East Coast spoiler"
LAST EDITED ON 12-07-01 AT 00:43 AM (EST)

At first glance it seemed that Brandon had thrown it all away, but the more I think about it, and having had time to digest him saying "this is my ticket to the final four", I believe that he has a plan to go to the end with Kim P, T, and one wild card, who at this point I think it is Ethan (after he wins 10,000 immunity challenges.)

Brandon has turned out to be the real brain on this season's Survivor. As someone else on this thread said, hopefully he will be prove it next week.

I also do not think that he believes he has any chance to win the game, but he wants to get as far as possible. I think this opens the game for Kim P as your survivor winner, barring Ethan taking all the immunity challenges, which he might just do.

Lex has completely fallen apart. What happened here? At first it seemed he had it all to win this thing and then poof it is all gone.

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mookiemeister 284 desperate attention whore postings
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12-07-01, 00:51 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: Do not read if you don't want an East Coast spoiler"
>
>Lex has completely fallen apart. What
>happened here? At first it
>seemed he had it all
>to win this thing and
>then poof it is all
>gone.

I think Lex was too paranoid about being the next person to get voted out. So he got people to vote out his old Boran tribemate instead. Little did he know that he had just sealed his fate as the next person to get voted out since he now have more votes than any Old Samburus! He may have delayed in getting voted out by only 1 episode by betraying one of the old Borans.

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Seyz 198 desperate attention whore postings
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12-07-01, 02:19 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: Do not read if you don't want an East Coast spoiler"
I totally agree. Kimp wins best actress next week when she tries to convince MamaKim that she was betrayed. Once you have a plan.. you have to play it out to the end.

Best Actress: KimP
Best Actor: Brandon

Final 2: KimP and Brandon

She may have a been overdramatic though with the gun signs and facial expressions, but ah.. what the hell.. best actress.

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mookiemeister 284 desperate attention whore postings
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12-07-01, 00:42 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: Do not read if you don't want an East Coast spoiler"

>
>pps: I am quite devastated that
>my main girl Kelly is
>out of play. Lex
>is without a doubt the
>next to go.

Lex will be gone next week if he didn't win IC. If he did, Tom is gone. Mark my words!

I'm pretty upset Kelly got kicked out this week. Kelly is one of my favorites too (along with Ethan). I was a bit surprised that Kelly didn't do better in the mental IC this week. I thought she's much smarter than her quick exit in the IC. But I guess she's probably better at analyzing data than memorizing data.

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Yazimodo 32 desperate attention whore postings
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12-07-01, 02:40 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: Do not read if you don't want an East Coast spoiler"
> Lex will be gone next week if he didn't win IC. If he did, Tom
> is gone. Mark my words!

Lex doesnt necessarily need to win IC for Tom to go.

What if:

Lex loses IC. He knows he's in danger because of all his votes so he goes back to his litlle pal Brandon and somehow makes a deal for the reformed Samburu to vote for Tom.

Lex *betrays* Tom.

It also emphasizes the discussion he had with Ethan in the first few episodes: "Me and Tom are solid, we swore on our sons we'd never vote against each other".

It strenghtens the role of Lex as the main villain this season.

We saw Tom having infections or something in the preview. Everytime they show someone suffering or having any kind of physical illness or problem, it means they'll get vote or even get voted out. Ramona, Colleen, Nick, Elizabeth, Jessie, Lindsey (Ep4)...
To further prove this point, we recently found out that Lindsey, Clarence and Lex all had dysentary (which made em actually LEAVE camp for a while). They didnt show it cuz the only purpose of showin it is to make us believe that the others might vote for em since theyre sick. Nonetheless, someone leavin camp is unheard of to the viewers, therefore: interestin. Why not show it?

They wouldnt show Tom gettin sick unless he gets votes or others are thinkin of votin him off. It may also be Lex' main argument and excuse for "betrayin" him.

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Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings
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12-07-01, 03:28 AM (EST)
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21. "RE: Do not read if you don't want an East Coast spoiler"
<<<we recently found out that Lindsey, Clarence and Lex all had dysentary (which made em actually LEAVE camp for a while). >>>

This report has been vigorously denied by CBS as being "factually inacurate." I posted this on the dysentary thread with a link to

www.suriv.org

I also posted that I thought that while people were treated for illness, that the people listed where not nesacarily Lindsey\Clarence\Lex. If we see Tom sick in the previews, then maby Tom gets treated. We also have in the spoiler bag a potential for Clarence to be brought up to the jury. Maby Someone gets so sick that they can not serve on the Jury...
Naked

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Yazimodo 32 desperate attention whore postings
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12-07-01, 03:43 AM (EST)
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22. "RE: Do not read if you don't want an East Coast spoiler"
><<<we recently found out that Lindsey, Clarence and Lex all had dysentary (which made em actually LEAVE camp for a while). >>>
>
> This report has been vigorously
>denied by CBS as being
>"factually inacurate." I posted this
>on the dysentary thread with

i didnt know that

>If we see Tom
>sick in the previews, then
>maby Tom gets treated.

Nonetheless, my original point holds.
In every season and every episode so far, the only time we have seen a survivor act "weak", (s)he received votes or was voted off. The only exception to that rule i can think of is if it happened pre-merge and that particular tribe didnt go to tribal council.
It happened twice this season, with KimJ losing the challenge in episode 3 and with the tick in Lindsey's ***. But on both occasions, it was strongly suggested that *if* they were to go to TC, she was gonna get votes from L/T/K.

I'm not sayin Tom is gonna be voted off, just that he'll probably get votes next episode and that Lex will be behind it.

>We
>also have in the spoiler
>bag a potential for Clarence
>to be brought up to
>the jury. Maby Someone gets
>so sick that they can
>not serve on the Jury...

i dont think that's gonna happen but it would be interesting.

the reason i doubt that is that on every interview, Clarence seemed to diss and belittle the whole experience. If he was on the jury, he would be much more careful about sharing what he thinks of Ethan and Lex. Plus, on Letterman, he even said the best part of the trip was all the fun he had after being kicked off and going to jetski or somethin. So...

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Afreaqua 181 desperate attention whore postings
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12-07-01, 08:59 AM (EST)
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28. "RE: Do not read if you don't want an East Coast spoiler"
Brandon HAD power for a very short time, then threw it away when he cast his vote.
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12-07-01, 07:30 AM (EST)
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24. "RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9?"
Sorry, SB (et al), but I have to agree that Brandon made a smart move here. He could not have *known* Kelly's loyalty. He couldn't have felt good about her switching sides to vote with them against Lex. After all, he was switching too (or considering it). Those people who are snakes are generally the most suspicious of other potential snakes.

Also remember that we saw lKim pumping the votes with everyone. I like lKim, and think she's got a good shot (especially now). This only cements in my mind that she was in on it with Brandon. She's the one who said "If I change my vote, you'll know". At least twice, that I noticed. And she "knew" that Brandon was good. Do we really think that these GXA buddies would truly betray one another? I have a difficult time seeing it.

I think that Brandon/lKim is being edited as Colby/Tina of SIII. A little more obvious, sure. But after last season, who isn't looking for such a plan to form? Why wouldn't EPM want to lead us down that path? I actually don't think it will end up the way they are leading us, but I can see the editing being done to make us think it'll work out like SII. I think we'll see more next week that wants to lead viewers down this road of thinking.

In any case - for Brandon to seize control, he needs two oBoran members to vote off. That gets oSamburu to 4-2 over oBoran, and then he can take out Frank. If Brandon had voted to target Lex, he might have been more secure in-alliance - but then the only guaranteed target would have been Tom (perhaps Kelly, but that seems way too fast of a switch for Brandon to make). I also think that Kelly would have been a bit of a tougher sell to lKim and Teresa next week. They made a new alliance with her - you think they'd turn around and vote against her so quickly? So now Brandon has three targets, two of which are oBoran.

In no particular order: Lex, Tom, Frank. All have prior votes - though noone may know about Frank's. If Lex has immunity, vote Tom. If Tom does, vote Lex. Next week, vote the other. I don't think either Lex or Tom is likely to see the immunity necklace (is that thing ugly or what?) two weeks in a row. Ethan, perhaps. Not Lex and Tom.

A Boran is gone next week, pretty much guaranteed. The week after is the same. With a 4-3 advantage, and a newly found unity ("We Are Family", anyone?), another oBoran is sure to go. If oSamburu has the chance, they're stupid to not pick Ethan. I like Ethan and think he'll go a long way - perhaps even go on the dreaded immunity run. If they don't get him when they have the chance, then any plan to get oSamburu to the final four will fail.

Now for the disclaimer: I actually think that Frank is being "edited out" of the picture. We haven't seen diddly of him of late. Could be that he's just not that interesting of a character. But I can't help but think he's being moved to the background to detract attention. I can see him with Teresa flipping the tables a little later on to oust Brandon and lKim. But I'm not yet sure how Ethan and mKim fit into things...

I'd like to point out something that everyone seems to be missing. Not sure it's the case, but I'm wondering: Why in the world would anyone vote off Lex? This does take a leap of faith, I'll admit - namely that we won't see the hand-holding crap of two buddies like at the end of SII. But assuming we don't, then the eventual winner is going to want to go up against the worst possible person. Sure, it's probably a bit early, traditionally speaking, to be speaking of the end game. But who in their right mind would not want to go up against Lex when the million is on the line?

Remember, people - they're there to win a million bucks, like everyone else who has played this game (except perhaps Colby). While Lex may be a moron now, I can see it easily turning into a payday of $100K. And if you can't win the million, what's the next best option? Lex may have just guaranteed himself $100K.

Anyway, enough rambling. Feel free to blast away.

Chad.

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SurvivorGuy 24 desperate attention whore postings
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12-07-01, 11:06 AM (EST)
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30. "RE: The Betrayal in Episode 9?"
I've been reading all of the posts, and I agree with much of the logic. There doesn't seem to be much benefit to voting for Kelly as opposed to Lex, but I've thought of one.

If Brandon had voted for Lex this week, he would have been targetted next week, most likely, by the remaining Borans. I think Brandon is trying to stay vote free for as long as possible. By voting for Kelly, he stays in with Boran for at least one more week. He can steer them next week, and then turn on them at the TC. That still puts him in jeopardy after that, but Frank will have a higher vote total of the remaining Samburus, so he'll be safe, probably to the final three. I think Brandon is thinking long term. He's a lot smarter than I'd given him credit for.

Thinking long term, this could fail if Boran targets Brandon exclusively after he turns on them. Frank would have 5 votes (4 from ep 9 + 1 from earlier). Brandon would pick up 3 in ep 10, then 2 in ep 11, and then 1 in ep 12, for a total of 6.

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