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mindysue 39 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 11-23-01, 08:53 AM (EST) "next to go?" On S1 and S2, the first two people voted out of the tribe were the strongest male and the strongest female. S1 it was Gretchen and then Greg. S2 it was Jeff and then Alicia. If we follow the same logic. Last night Clarence, the strongest male, was voted out, so next must be the strongest female. Is there a strong female? Who is it? Clearly Gretchen and Alicia were a threat, but does anyone think there is a threatening female? Maybe Kim P (Little Kim)?   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: next to go? esquire 11-23-01 1    RE: next to go? Rose Red 11-23-01 2  RE: next to go? gemstone 11-25-01 3  RE: next to go? zzz 11-26-01 4    RE: next to go? MDSkinner 11-26-01 5        RE: next to go? zzz 11-26-01 6            RE: next to go? Rose Red 11-26-01 7                RE: next to go? zzz 11-26-01 8

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esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 11-23-01, 09:42 AM (EST) 1. "RE: next to go?" There are no real strong females in this group like Gretchen or Alicia. None of the woman in S3 have Alicia's stregnth or Gretchen's soul. At best, they are all in little 2-person alliances and looked down upon by the men.   Top

Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 11-23-01, 03:28 PM (EST) 2. "RE: next to go?" Teresa has certainly emerged as the strongest woman. But if Lex tries to target HER next week, the OTHER women on the show might rise to her defense. Or at least I hope they would.   Top

gemstone 70 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 11-25-01, 12:50 PM (EST) 3. "RE: next to go?" Ethan stated Kim P was strong in the Insider clips. He noticed this in a very short time.   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 11-26-01, 09:54 AM (EST) 4. "RE: next to go?" While looking at S1 and S2 may be instructive in determining who goes next, I think if we examine S3 we get a better idea. Let us look at all the candidates. Someone from old Boran--The first question I ask myself is if there is any good evidence that someone from old Boran will vote with old Samburu and get rid of a member of old Boran. I find no evidence of this. Kelly voted with Lex and Tom when she could have become part of a four person alliance with Lindsey, Brandon and KimP that would have had a pretty good chance of going far (assuming they could get a fifth member post-merge). KimJ sent signals to Kelly about Lindsey's prior votes to help Kelly whittle down old Samburu--not the actions of someone that feels threatened by Lex or Tom. Ethan is the one person that seems to get along with everyone in old Boran and perhaps is really in the catbird seat. Lex sees himself as the leader of old Boran calling all the shots. Tom sees himself as "co-leader" evidenced by him going with Lex to tell Clarence he was to be voted out. No--there may be a 3-person suballiance we don't know about--but now would NOT be the time to move. I see no evidence of any of the old Boran realigning with old Samburu, and taking out a member of old Boran will have to wait until there are much fewer old Samburu left. Thus--assuming old Boran will stick together, who will their target be? There are 3 reasons people get voted out post-merge (1) the biggest threat (e.g., Alicia or Greg), (2) the least liked (e.g., Jerri) or (3) it is just time (e.g., Liz). It is too early in the game for 3 to come into play. I think the members of old Boran are too savy to be swept by sentiment to allow 2 to come into play--Tom's words about Brandon notwithstanding (I think he was just saying that to make himself look good--he wants the threats out as much as anyone). They took out Clarence even though he had been a loyal member of old Boran because he was not part of the alliance and way a potential threat. Sentiment is playing no part in old Boran's decision making process. So at this point, I think old Boran will vote out the biggest threat that does not have immunity. Of course, we cannot know at this point who will have immunity so that can always change the plan. Let me look at the candidates in detail now. Frank--He would be my first target if he does not get immunity. He is clearly the strongest of old Samburu. The fact that he has made himself an outsider is really not the point. While he has not always performed that well in challenges in the past--he seems to have the potential. Brute strength always has to be a concern. Teresa--She showed herself to be a very tough competitor. Winning immunity in E7 may have been a strategic mistake. She may have placed a bullseye by showing how much determination and stamina she really has. Of course, if Lex finds out she voted against him then she is really in trouble. I would put Teresa as the next most likely to be voted out. KimP--She has been observed as being athletic. As Kelly showed in S1, athleticism can win a lot of ICs even without brute strength. This potential makes her the next most likely target. Brandon--He seems pretty safe right now. He has shown little strength or athletic ability. He seems unlikely to evoke sympathy down the road with respect to an old Boran that might start getting a case of the "guilts" (like Kelly did in S1--in my opinion that mistake probably cost her $900,000 assuming a deadlock tie-break in the final 4 would have eliminated Rich and Kelly would have brought Sue to the finals). It would be foolish for old Boran to take him out at this point, and I think they are being too meticulous to make that mistake.   Top

MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 11-26-01, 10:04 AM (EST) 5. "RE: next to go?" I agree with this assesment almost completely. The only two that I may switch around right now are Frank and Teresa. I think that they are without question the two most likely targets, because of the fact that they are the two biggest threats with immunity(probably both the mental and the physical ones). At this stage, however, I do think that it is likely that Teresa may be a bigger target than even Frank. Frank does have the brute strength, and that is always something to be afraid of, but I think that Teresa's incredible show of endurance might make her a bigger threat. I am certain that the Boran's do not see Frank as another Colby, but I think that they may see Teresa as another Kelly(from S1) who also went on a solid immunity run at the end of the first Survivor. For that reason I could see Teresa very likely being the target at this next immunity challenge. The whole vote for Lex may add to that, but I think it was her show of endurance that may do her in.   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 11-26-01, 10:42 AM (EST) 6. "RE: next to go?" MD-- You make an excellent point, and it is one I tried to outline above. Frank v. Teresa really is a choice of strength v. endurance (and determination). I admit that I am not sure which asset old Boran will target. Immunity may make their choice for them (finding out what the IC is for E8 may help in this analysis). At this point, however, I would be surprised if someone other than Frank or Teresa is booted E8.   Top

Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 11-26-01, 11:40 AM (EST) 7. "RE: next to go?" Agreed.They can't BOTH win immunity. And the Borings are sticking togehter like African corn meal mush. However, EPMB DOES seem to be protecting Frank.   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 11-26-01, 11:58 AM (EST) 8. "RE: next to go?" >Agreed.They can't BOTH win immunity. And >the Borings are sticking togehter >like African corn meal mush. >However, EPMB DOES seem to >be protecting Frank. The only thing MB can do to try to protect Frank would be to pick an IC that favors him. I am not sure what that could be. They already did archery, and Ethan ended up better than Frank in that anyway. My opinion at this point (subject to change of course) is that if Frank does not go this week, he will go the next time he does not win immunity, and there is little MB can do to prevent it.   Top

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