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"Relationships After Episode 7"
Seyz 198 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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11-23-01, 00:59 AM (EST)
 
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"Relationships After Episode 7" |
Some unexpected things happened this episode. I didn't think that the Borans would be so quick to kick off one of their own.
It could have implications down the line...There are some interesting relationships going on ... esp.. after the preview.. it's hard to say whether people will continue to vote according to tribal lines. I have to applaud Clarence though. He's the first survivor to make a switch in tribal voting when it matters!! And it would've worked too, if Clarence and Theresa had contacted the Ex-Samburus to vote off Lex. Apparently, communication was off b/w the Samburus this episode.. however.. from the previews.. it's obvious that the Samburus finally get their act together. (FINALLY!)Theresa-
lol.. when Theresa won immunity.. all I could think of was.. uh-oh.. all the predictions on the board were wrong.. I guess we all assumed that there would be no merge or that Theresa would not win individual immunity. Anywayz, Theresa is mega-impressive!! She (unlike Jeff) won one of the most important ICs. Relationship-wise, Theresa sticks back with Brandon and Kim
(as shown in the preview). She's one smart cookie, because she finally realizes that the Borans are sticking together.. This also means that an alliance with MamaKIm is relatively unlikely.
I think Theresa,Kim and Brandon are now going to stick together 'til the end. I think they're closer than we originally thought. If Theresa can get MamaKim into their alliance.. (I think there IS a chance), then the Ex-Samburus may actually pull an upset. Also.. I don't think Theresa will like Lex very much, after next weeks episode when he tries to scope out who voted for him. She'll probably target Lex during TC. Also.. we never thought Theresa was a leader.. but she is.. she seems to be the one that reunites the Ex-Samburus. I think she's even smarter, stronger and likeable than MamaKim. Brandon and Kim-
Brandon and Kim.. may be saved!!! I think they'll still stick together 'til the end.. (They were still sitting next to each other in the preview). From the preview.. it's 100% positive that they'll reunite with Frank and Theresa. They obviously need a sway vote to kick off Lex.. If Theresa can't get MamaKim, then Brandon and Kim MAY have a chance with Kelly. Kelly seems to HATE Lex. Also Tom seems to be really anti-Brandon.. may be a problem for Brandon later. Kelly-
Where do Kelly's loyalties lie?? She's still the major swing vote person. Will her hatred for Lex be enough to switch over to the Samburus to FINALLY break up the LETM alliance. Also with Clarence gone, Kelly has GOT to know that she needs to get in an alliance fast.. I just hope by now that she realizes that she isn't as close to Lex and Tom as she thinks. Tom and Lex-
Tom and Lex seem to have the closer alliance in the Borans. Ethan seems like a third wheel, and Kelly is probably not in the alliance (even though she might think she is.) However, LEx seems to be the new "bad guy". He has votes against him.. and Theresa will probably want to target him. Frank-
He'll stick with Theresa.. he seems like a man of his word. I can't see him betraying Theresa and running to the Borans. The Ex-Samburus will finally stick together. Theresa will be the bridge that gaps the older and younger generation. Ethan and MamaKim-
Oohh.. I think MamaKim has just lost all leverage, since Frank and Theresa appear to NOT be on her side at all!! In fact, since THeresa voted for Lex this week.. it seems like MamaKim doesn't have much of an option besides sticking with the LET alliance.. or she could defect.. but will Theresa be able to convince her to? And it seems like Tom and Lex are close, while Ethan is the outside.. Overall:
The Ex-Samburus can pull it off if they pull one person from the Borans over; Kelly (GenXers convince), Tom (Theresa convince), or MamaKim (Theresa and Frank convince).
The most likely choice of course is Kelly.. since she already hates Lex.. and she gets along with Brandon and Kim. Seyz
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Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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11-23-01, 01:57 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Relationships After Episode 7" |
You got it, Seyz. Terrific analysis, all very possible speculation.
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King William 38 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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11-23-01, 03:54 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Relationships After Episode 7" |
First of all the CB vote was no surprise, all the people who liked him also said "to big of a threat." Game over.
>Theresa-
>lol.. when Theresa won immunity.. all I could think of was..
>uh-oh.. all the predictions on the board were wrong.. I
>guess we all assumed that there would be no merge
>or that Theresa would not win individual immunity. Anywayz, >Theresa is mega-impressive!!
Agreed. >She's one smart cookie, because she
>finally realizes that the Borans
>are sticking together.. Disagree. If she had a brain cell in that pretty, little, mile high club, ass of hers she wouldn't have screwed tonight up. They had CB. She could have brought Brandi and Lil kim and Frank together. Next week: Too little too late. Bye bye T, better go on an immunity run now, cause your butt is gone. >Brandon and Kim- Samboohoo came together just in time to get cooked.
>Kelly-
>Where do Kelly's loyalties lie?? She's
>still the major swing vote person. Will her hatred for
>Lex be enough to switch over to the Samburus to
>FINALLY break up the LETM alliance. Also with Clarence gone,
>Kelly has GOT to know that she needs to get
>in an alliance fast.. I just hope by now that
>she realizes that she isn't as close to Lex and
>Tom as she thinks.
Kelly's loyalty is only to herself. She is the single most likely person to betray anyone on the show. But why do it now?
She is an outsider for samburus and it would lose her every jury vote on her own tribe. She's banking on Lex pissing off Ethan and MK enough to get rid of him. And that gets her to the final 4.
>Tom and Lex-
>Tom and Lex seem to have the closer alliance in the
>Borans. Ethan seems like a third wheel, and Kelly is
>probably not in the alliance (even though she might think
>she is.) However, LEx seems to be the new "bad
>guy". He has votes against him.. and Theresa will probably
>want to target him.
Yeah, Lex is the new "Keith". Cocky. Just cocky enough to get him to the finals as a bad guy. $100,000 aint so bad, and he could even win. Tom and Lex are in trouble in the Boran alliance because they've both got votes. >Frank- See Brandi and Lil Kim. >Ethan Swing vote in the Boran 5. Will he bank on winning the last immunity against Lex or on winning the votes? It's yours to lose soccer boy. > MamaKim- Hold on! Ethan could still give you a mil! >Overall:
>The Ex-Samburus can pull it off if they pull one person
>from the Borans over; No way. Boran is more likely to stick together now than ever. The only question is whether Lex, Tom, or Kelly is a bigger target at the 5 person stage. B5 alliance won tonight. Period. Next week, Teresa: Too much face time tonight and she's emerged as an IC and a leadership threat. Alternate is T wins IC, Frank (too strong). But then again I haven't gotten a vote right since Diane. King William
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-23-01, 01:16 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Relationships After Episode 7" |
>
>>She's one smart cookie, because she
>>finally realizes that the Borans are sticking together..
>
>Disagree. If she had a brain cell in that pretty,
>little, mile high club, ass of hers she wouldn't have
>screwed tonight up.
>
>They had CB. She could have brought Brandi and Lil
>kim and Frank together. Next week: Too little too
>late. Bye bye T, better go on an immunity
>run now, cause your butt is gone. Actually, this is wrong. Even if she'd gotten Clarence, Brandi, LittleKim, Frank, Clarence, and herself to all target the same person, they'd still have lost -- everyone else was targeting Clarence and Clarence had the most previous votes of anyone left in the game and therefore would lose on any 5-5 deadlocked vote. There was no feasible way to save Clarence, his previous votes did him in.
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-23-01, 01:44 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Relationships After Episode 7" |
That's true, but I think that's asking wayyy to much.1) the immunity challenge was a total surprise, they didn't even know they were a merged tribe until it happened, it looks like merged tribe strategy was the furthest thing from anyone in new Boran's mind (although the former Boran in Samburu were talking about it.) 2) until his back was to the wall, Clarence had still supported his tribe, for better or worse. Therefore I don't think Teresa could responsibly have been expected to have trusted anything that he promised, look back at the whole Silas/Clarence alliance thing -- then Clarence proceeded to dump on Silas just like everyone else. 3) during the IC, the rest of the tribe was sitting 15 feet away, it seemed next to impossible to strategize with eveyone else so close. I think the only reason Clarence honored the rock/paper/scissors result was because it was caught out in the open -- to have refused to honor it would have made him look even WORSE to the tribe. -SB
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-23-01, 08:35 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Relationships After Episode 7" |
>Kelly seems to HATE Lex. Also Tom
>seems to be really anti-Brandon..
>may be a problem for Brandon later.
>
>Kelly-
>Where do Kelly's loyalties lie?? She's still the major swing
>vote person. Will her hatred for Lex be enough to switch
>over to the Samburus to FINALLY break up the LETM
>alliance. Also with Clarence gone, Kelly has GOT to know
>that she needs to get in an alliance fast.. I
>just hope by now that she realizes that she isn't
>as close to Lex and Tom as she thinks. I really don't know... I'm sure Kelly merely isn't crazy about Lex but I think "HATE Lex" is too strong of a label. She's smart enough to distinguish between "not liking" someone and allying with him to further herself in the game. She may very well try to ally herself up with Brandon and Kim P, but she will need more than that to stay in the game. She also thinks that Frank is a psycho from what she's heard, so will she give Frank a chance? If she doesn't let herself get close enough to really see what Frank is like, then we might not see her ally herself with the former Samburus at all -- will stick with LETmK instead to keep the majority. I'm also wondering about Tom's feelings for Brandon. Is he going to let it cloud his thinking for the best strategy for the game? Is he going to hit on Lex to try to get Brandon voted out in the next episode? The recap show may tell us a LOT more, plus any new previews that come up in the next week or so. Hmmmmmm. 
"Damn you, Carl, for leaving me here with a bunch of misfits."
Frank Garrison, Nov. 1/01
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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11-23-01, 04:21 PM (EST)
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10. "Agree with your disagree" |
Ogachu, I agree that Tom asking both Lex and Ethan seperately who they were gonna "hatchet" (and the fact that MB showed us this) is telling. More telling were the looks Ethan and Lex gave Tom in response to the question. Maybe I'm reading too much into it. Maybe they just couldn't understand what the hell he was saying.  Early in the episode, Tom, Lex and Kelly discussed their lock on the final four. Question is, who was the implied fourth member? If it is indeed Ethan, where does that leave MamaKim? My best guess is that both Kelly and Lex are playing all sides of multiple alliances. Many posts mention a MamaKim/Ethan alliance but I don't remember any explicit strategy discussion from Kim. The closest she came was the conversation with Kelly after both were eliminated from the IC and Kelly tagged Frank as Pres of the He-Man Women Haters Club. Can the reunited by necessity Samburu be a threat to the Boran5? Sure, but any scenario that has a Boran jumping to the new Sam4 is a longshot, IMO. At this point, I believe that Lex, Ethan, Tom, Kelly and Kim each feels they have a good shot at the F2, possibly thru multiple sub-alliances. That said, I'm hoping that Kelly takes a stab at ousting Lex next week. Unfortunately, Kelly is too smart and strategic to not realize that Lex would make an outstanding F2 partner.
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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-23-01, 04:21 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Relationships After Episode 7" |
The most important relationships have got to be Kelly's and KimJ's relationships to their old Boran tribe. If those relationships holds, then old Samburu will be picked off 1 by 1. I think we will know the answer to this by the end of E8 at TC (counting recap as E7.5).In order to try to decide whether Kelly and/or KimJ will switch to align with the old Samburu people, I think end-game strategy comes in. Brandon and KimP are obviously tightly aligned and Frank and Teresa are obviously tightly aligned. I guess that joining that group may be a ride to at least the final three. For example, if Kelly joins the other 4 to vote out Lex, Ethan, Tom and KimJ, she could decide at the final 5 which pair to align with and that would probably get her to the final 3. The same analysis holds for KimJ. The problem is getting into the finals. Assuming the pairs are really loyal, you must win the final immunity to get into the finals. Whether that risk is better than staying with old Boran depends on what Kelly and KimJ think their suballiance position in old Boran happens to be. As far as Kelly goes, we have reason to believe that she may think she has a final 2 sub-alliance going with Ethan and/or KimJ and maybe even Lex. She has to be realist enough, however, to know that if she has multiple deals going, other poeple probably do as well. Without knowing her end-game strategy, it is hard to tell. But Kelly has had the opportunity to switch before and declined to do it. That makes me think she will stick with her tribe. KimJ is a real mystery. As far as I know, we have no real concrete insight into her suballiances. If she is confident with her suballiances, and I believe is, she will not switch sides. So my best prediction at this point is that old Samburu is doomed. I think that if there is a defection, however, it will be Kelly. One thing I think we can be pretty confident about, after the next REAL episode (recaps not included), we will have a VERY good idea of who the final 5 will be. To me, the obvious targets are Frank and Lex (barring immunity). If I am right, and one of them goes down in a 5-4 vote, the other people on the losing side of that vote will be the next three gone (barring immunity runs).
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drich61 558 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-23-01, 04:40 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Relationships After Episode 7" |
I agree zzz, the next real episode is the one that will tell us whom is in control. It is probably the last episode that will really have us guessing as to what will happen. That is why the two week wait, with the recap episode now.
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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11-23-01, 05:17 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Relationships After Episode 7" |
>To me, the obvious targets
>are Frank and Lex (barring
>immunity). If I am
>right, and one of them
>goes down in a 5-4
>vote, the other people on
>the losing side of that
>vote will be the next
>three gone (barring immunity runs).
zzz, I want to say I enjoy reading your posts, especially this one, because I agree with just about everything in it!
One possible, although not very likely, scenario includes Kelly joining the reformed Sam4 to oust Lex by a 5-4 vote. This is a little more likely if the Boran target Frank. Kelly then rejoins her Boran tribemates to oust Frank (5 previous votes of which at least 4 are known)in E9 thereby eliminating her top two irritants. This is likely only if Kelly has a sub-alliance with Ethan/MamaKim and isn't scared off by the fact that she'd have two guaranteed votes against from the jury. In fact, anyone on Boran could use this strategy to eliminate an ally who is too big of a threat later. For example, Lex votes with the Sam 4 to oust Ethan while the rest of Boran vote for Frank. Then Frank goes in E9. Of course, anyone employing this strategy would be screwed if Frank wins immunity in E9.
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vulcan 56 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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11-23-01, 08:20 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Relationships After Episode 7" |
i say lex makes it to the final 2 with the goat farmer the more survivor changes the more it stays the same the next booted member will be frank teresa if frank wins immunity brandon and kim pose little or no threat to anyone. but lex does make a cool villan anyone who could influence the tribe that much definately is a force clarence shouldve won immunity then jumped ship but he was still thinking along the lines of the good ole boran alliance. with 9 remaining we finally get to see who r the real players and who r just hanging along 4 the ride.
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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-24-01, 12:16 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Relationships After Episode 7" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-24-01 AT 12:31 PM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 11-24-01 AT 12:30 PM (EST) red-- I think you miss my point. What I am saying is that if any of the members of old Samburu has a chance to make it to the final 3, we will know it in E8. Unless old Samburu can get someone to switch sides now, it is over for them. If an old Boran goes in E8, then someone switched sides, and I believe it would be a permanent realignment (although I do not think this will happen). More likely an old Samburu will go in E8, and that means to me that no old Samburu will make it to the final 3. There is still a possibility that 1 or 2 old Samburu will last longer than 1 or 2 old Boran, but that will be it. In E8, we will know whether any old Samburu has a chance to win. If an old Samburu goes E8, however, Lex will NOT go E9 because that might tip off Tom that he is on the outs in the old Boran alliance. Tom could still go with the remaining 3 Samburu to oust Kelly, KimJ and Ethan. Unless they could be sure that Tom would be as dumb as Amber, they could not take this risk.
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msurvivor 1 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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11-24-01, 01:10 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: Relationships After Episode 7" |
After Episode 7, the following situations could play out:1)the alliance of Lex,Tom,Ethan,MamaKim, and Kelly will vote off Brandon, Frank, Theresa, and KimP. If the relationship of Lex and Ethan is still strong, then the following will be voted off Kelly, Tom, and then MamaKim if Lex wins immunity leaving Lex and Ethan as your final two. If Ethan wins, then Lex is voted off. There's a chance that Tom may make the final two but I doubt it. He's just a pawn being used by Lex to get where he wants to go and Lex likes Ethan more. 2)the alliance of Lex, Tom, Ethan, MamaKim, and Kelly will vote off samburu. Ethan, MamaKim, and Kelly vote off Lex and then Tom, becuase Ethan is close with MamaKim and MamaKim is close to Kelly. Ethan wins immunity and votes off Kelly or MamaKim wins immunity and votes off Kelly or Kelly wins immunity and votes off Ethan. 3)Kelly, Brandi, KimP, Theresa, Frank, MamaKim, and Ethan vote off Lex becuase it so appearant that Lex is such a jerk and then Tom. Kelly, MamaKim, Ethan, Brandi, and Kim P. vote off Frank becuase he's so disliked by the younger crowd and has become distant with the other tribe members. From here, it could get nasty. Kelly, MamaKim, Ethan, vote off Brandi, KimP, and then Theresa and then the end could be like situation 2 OR Kelly, Brandi, KimP, and Theresa vote off Ethan becuase he's too strong and a big favorite if he reaches the final two. Kelly, Brandi, and KimP, vote off MamaKim and Theresa becuase they might become the next Tina and win the millon dollars. Kelly wins immunity and votes off KimP. KimP wins immunity and votes of Kelly. Brandi wins immunity and votes of Kelly. All this plays out if Kelly deciedes to back stab her ex-boran mates in a big way. In past episodes, Kelly has ALWAYS gone with the flow voting with the original borans and I don't see her changing much from this strategy. Overall: I see a final two of either Ethan and Lex or Ethan and MamaKim or Kelly and MamaKim or Kelly and Brandi or Brandi and KimP. I definately feel that Ethan, Kelly, and MamaKim are in it for the long hall. After Episode 7, my player rankings are as follows: 1)Ethan - ability to get along with everyone, his strong relationship with MamaKim, and his athleticism will get him far (ala Colby).
2)MamaKim - ability to get along with everyone including those from the ex-samburu and her strong relationship with Ethan will also get her far (ala Tina)
3)Kelly - somewhat favorable relationship with Kim, ability to pretend to be on the side of Lex and Tom, and friendly relationship with Brandon and KimP. should get her at least through the next five episodes.
4)Lex - did merger weaken his relationship with Ethan? will his cockiness prove unfavorable with is ex-boran mates? I guess were going to find out sooner than later.
5)Tom - he just goes with the flow on the coat tails of Lex.
6)KimP. - laying low under the radar will only get you so far.
7)Theresa - likable but the favorites dont see her going far with them.
8)Frank - is becoming distant to the rest of the tribe, and deep down he is not liked by Kelly, KimP., and Brandi. Theresa is his only person he could trust.
9)Brandi - not liked by Lex and Tom; Ethan, MamaKim, Theresa, and Frank really don't have a care for him; his only true allies are Kelly and KimP. On a final note, I don't think Kelly has the ability to betray her ex-boran mates for the long haul. She has always gone with the flow dispite her reservations of Lex and I think Kelly's inability to form a insurmountable bond with anyone will hurt her as the game goes on.
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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-24-01, 12:44 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Relationships After Episode 7" |
I also welcome you.I think your first 2 scenarios are rather plausible, but your 3d scenario is pretty far fetched. It requires the making of a new and rather large alliance with a variety of shifting alliances along the way. In my opinion, that will NOT happen. The "evil Lex" persona is probably MB editing to throw us off. What might happen, however, is that 1 (or 2) old Boran knows she is on the outs with the rest of old Boran--for example Kelly--for purposes of this example I will assume it is Kelly. Kelly then switches PERMANENTLY to old Samburu to eliminate the rest of old Boran. She then sides with one of the 2 factions, probably the GXA to get rid of the other 2 old Samburu and ends up in the final 3 (although she would probably have to win the final challenge to get into the finals). Actually, I don't think this scenario will happen. But I think it is more likely than your scenario 3. I think we can already pretty much figure out that the final 3 will be old Boran. We just don't know the suballiances (and MB will do his best to keep these from us as long as possible) to know which 3. If an old Boran goes in E8, however, I believe it would signal a permanent realignment and the rest of old Boran would be doomed. More likely, old Samburu is doomed. The one thing that does seem clear is that if old Boran stick together, Ethan is in great shape to get to the final 3 (and probably the finals).
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
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