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nailbone 27263 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-30-06, 10:05 AM (EST) "Larry's Predictor" Last year, Larry from "Gay Idol Journal" recognized a pattern in the bottom 3 that might be used for predicting who might go each week. As I recall, it proverd to be pretty accurate, so I thought I might dredge it up again, and sure enough, the pattern holds for this season, too. The theory goes: In any given week, the bottom three can be predicted by looking at the bottom three from two weeks prior. Two members of the bottom three will be the two people who were in the bottom three two weeks prior (but weren't booted.) One of those two people will be booted. The other person in the bottom three will be someone who has never been in the bottom three previously. Week 1: Lisa Ace Melissa - gone Week 2: Lisa Bucky Kevin - gone Week 3 (when the pattern can start): Ace Katharine Lisa - gone As you can see, two of them (Ace and Lisa) were in the Bottom 3 two weeks ago, and one of them (Lisa) was booted. And the third person (Kat) was not in the bottom three previously. So, carrying that forward to next week, Bucky should be in the Bottom 3. A deviation from the pattern was only one of the Bottom 3 from last week still remains. I guess we'll see how this plays out. Sig by Arkie!! Holey carp! My blog! MySpace! Official OT Tassel Adjuster o-   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Larry's Predictor Glow 03-30-06 1    RE: Larry's Predictor nailbone 03-30-06 2  RE: Larry's Predictor zazzy 03-30-06 3    RE: Larry's Predictor FFantasyFX 03-30-06 4  RE: Larry's Predictor nailbone 04-05-06 5    RE: Larry's Predictor priestdi 04-05-06 6        RE: Larry's Predictor selah 04-05-06 7            RE: Larry's Predictor priestdi 04-05-06 8  Final Nine Update FFantasyFX 04-06-06 9    RE: Final Nine Update Glow 04-06-06 10    RE: Final Nine Update nailbone 04-06-06 11        RE: Final Nine Update FFantasyFX 04-07-06 12            RE: Final Nine Update TODDLJ 04-07-06 13                RE: Final Nine Update TODDLJ 04-12-06 14                    RE: Final Nine Update dragonflies 04-12-06 15                    RE: Final Nine Update Tahj 04-13-06 16                        RE: Final Nine Update TODDLJ 04-13-06 17                            RE: Final Nine Update nailbone 04-13-06 18                            RE: Final Nine Update FFantasyFX 04-14-06 19                            RE: Final Nine Update Devious Weasel 04-20-06 20  RE: Larry's Predictor TODDLJ 04-23-06 21    RE: Larry's Predictor jazzyjeff 04-24-06 22

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Glow 14353 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-30-06, 11:02 AM (EST) 1. "RE: Larry's Predictor" *squinty eyes*   Top

nailbone 27263 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-30-06, 12:12 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Larry's Predictor" Hey, I ain't happy with that prediction either. I'm just sayin' that's what the pattern is. FTR, I predict that the others will be Ace and Elliot, and Ace will be gone. Sig by Arkie!! Holey carp! My blog! MySpace! Official OT Tassel Adjuster o-   Top

zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 03-30-06, 12:53 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Larry's Predictor" Glad you resurrected this. I was wondering who went when. I wanted to add the detail of who was bottom two: F12: Bottom three: Ace, Melissa, Lisa Bottom two: Melissa, Lisa (Ace = safe) Boot: Melissa F11: Bottom three: Kevin, Lisa, Bucky Bottom two: Kevin, Bucky (Lisa = safe) Boot: Kevin F10: Bottom three: Ace, Katherine, Lisa Bottom two: Katherine, Lisa (Ace = safe) Boot: Lisa Could there be a new pattern emerging--Lisa safe at F11--clearly bottom three but not bottom two danger spot...only to be booted next show. So could Ace who was bottom three this week but safe from bottom two get the boot...particularly with the country theme for the week?   Top

FFantasyFX 1028 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 03-30-06, 11:03 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Larry's Predictor" Well, I think one of the hypotheses behind the theory is that fans of a particular performer will see them in danger one week, vote like crazy the next, and then when they ultimately prove to be safe that week - the fans relax and let the performer slip back into the bottom three the next week. Larry's theory worked really, really well during American Idol 3, although I remember quite a few kinks being thrown into the system during last season. So far, the only anomaly has been Lisa, but I would propose that her fanbase was so weak that even when energized they could only keep her out of the bottom two in week two, rather than all the way out of the bottom three. Given that, I would be surprised to see Ace in the bottom three next week unless he completely bombs. He is, however, the prime candidate for elimination two weeks from now. Bucky will almost certainly be in the bottom three this week, although the theme may save him from elimination. My main question is who are the two surprise candidates who join him? Paris? Elliot? Mandisa? Kellie?   Top

nailbone 27263 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-05-06, 05:07 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Larry's Predictor" Flingin' this back up towards the top to see how it plays out tonight... Sig by Arkie!! Holey carp! My blog! MySpace! Official OT Tassel Adjuster o-   Top

priestdi 378 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 04-05-06, 07:21 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Larry's Predictor" I have a feeling it's going to somebody random this time. not according to any rules. we need SOMETHING interesting to happen, the singing sure hasn't been.   Top

selah 94 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 04-05-06, 07:50 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Larry's Predictor" interesting topic.. I was trying to remember when La Toya (season 3) and Constantine (season 4) were booted as surprise, I thought it was further into the competition.   Top

priestdi 378 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 04-05-06, 07:59 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Larry's Predictor" La Toya made it to the final 4 Constantine just to the final 6. (probably the vote for the worst crowd caused that, scotty went out the next week)   Top

FFantasyFX 1028 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 04-06-06, 00:33 AM (EST) 9. "Final Nine Update" Well, the system hit its second kink this week, although it still worked reasonably well. The main problem is that Bucky was slated for the bottom three tonight, indeed, was probably the favorite to go, but he dodged the process entirely. It's possible that Bucky was buoyed by the fact that the theme was based on his genre of choice, as well as the fact that he sung in the final position on the show, which has been known to do wonders for contestants in the past (indeed, many but not all of the irregularities in season four could be explained by the fact that the contestant got that coveted position in a week they were scheduled to be in the bottom three). I'm interested to see how things work out next week, when Ace, Katharine, and one new individual are slated for the bottom three. Current results and predicted results printed below: F12: Bottom three: Ace, Melissa, Lisa Bottom two: Melissa, Lisa (Ace = safe) Boot: Melissa F11: Bottom three: Kevin, Lisa, Bucky Bottom two: Kevin, Bucky (Lisa = safe) Boot: Kevin F10: Bottom three: Ace, Katherine, Lisa Bottom two: Katherine, Lisa (Ace = safe) Boot: Lisa F9: Bottom three: Mandisa, Elliot, Paris Bottom two: Mandisa, Elliot (Paris = safe) Boot: Mandisa F8 Prediction: Bottom three: Ace, Katharine, and one of (Kellie, Chris, and Taylor) Primary boot choice: Ace; Secondary boot choice: Katharine *I wouldn't be surprised to see Bucky in the bottom three and perhaps even eliminated, since he missed the reaper last week* F7 Prediction: Bottom three: Bucky, Elliot, Paris Primary boot choice: Bucky; Secondary boot choice: Elliot   Top

Glow 14353 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-06-06, 08:36 AM (EST) 10. "RE: Final Nine Update" hmmm. Wonder who will get the pimp spot for Queen week. I can't imagine it would be Ace but it will be interesting to find out. This is only my opinion, of course but I do think Bucky and Ace did well this week. Two of the bottom three were spot on. I don't see Taylor being in the bottom three any time soon. an arkie work of art   Top

nailbone 27263 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-06-06, 09:46 AM (EST) 11. "RE: Final Nine Update" Well, the system hit its second kink this week, although it still worked reasonably well. It didn't work at all. First, the first kink affected it in that both of the people one of which should have been in this Bottom 3 with Bucky were voted off already. Then this week, NONE of the bottom 3 had been there before. It'll be interesting to see if the pattern picks back up next week. Sig by Arkie!! Holey carp! My blog! MySpace! Official OT Tassel Adjuster o-   Top

FFantasyFX 1028 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 04-07-06, 00:55 AM (EST) 12. "RE: Final Nine Update" LAST EDITED ON 04-07-06 AT 01:05 AM (EST) Heh . . . if you thought the system didn't work at all, I fear to hear what you would have said if Katharine and/or Ace would have landed in the bottom three this week. I think the system is just as interesting in who it tells us is safe every week as well as who it says is in danger. I'm not trying to minimize the anomalies presented by Lisa and Bucky because they are definite flaws, but there are some possible extenuating circumstances that explain why the pattern was disrupted. But I agree, the true test is going to come in the next two weeks. Unless they are the final singers for the night, Ace and Katharine should be in the bottom three next week. I'd venture that one of Bucky, Taylor, Kellie, or Chris ends up joining them.   Top

TODDLJ 421 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 04-07-06, 02:18 AM (EST) 13. "RE: Final Nine Update" LAST EDITED ON 04-07-06 AT 02:26 AM (EST) Thanks for drudging this up! I do think that this week's bottom three will include: Ace (saved last week, bottom three the week before, and two weeks before that) OR (less likely) Katherine (saved last week, bottom three the week before) Bucky (who was destined to go this week and saved by the pimp spot) And a third person who has never been bottom 3 (one of Kellie, Chris or Taylor.) (I think in the middle of last season, I added the addendum that anyone who sings last will become an exception... and not be eliminated despite their appearance in bottom 3 in previous weeks. This would apply to Bucky last week... that tables his spot in the bottom 3 to this week.)   Top

TODDLJ 421 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 04-12-06, 02:11 PM (EST) 14. "RE: Final Nine Update" Just bumping this to remind you guys of the prediction made by this system tonight: Bottom three should include: 1. Ace and/or Katherine: Bottom 3 two weeks ago, 'saved' last week by vote spike. 2. Bucky: Due last week but saved by 'pimp spot.' Now overdue for boot. 3. A third person who hasn't been in the bottom 3 (Kellie, Chris or Taylor) TOTALLY SAFE ARE: Elliott and Paris, due to 'vote spike' from their bottom 3 status last week (and Paris' 'pimp spot' status.) My prediction: Ace, Bucky, Chris. Boot: Ace.   Top

dragonflies 8051 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-12-06, 03:30 PM (EST) 15. "RE: Final Nine Update" My prediction: Ace, Bucky, Chris. Boot: Ace. ABC. (hey, will next week be a Jackson 5 week? giggle) Sigs by Cyg Sorry, I'm in a giggling mood today   Top

Tahj 4136 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 04-13-06, 02:48 PM (EST) 16. "RE: Final Nine Update" Alert! Alert! System failure!! Moves courtesy of Syren   Top

TODDLJ 421 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 04-13-06, 05:10 PM (EST) 17. "RE: Final Nine Update" Agreed. Imperfect at best. It's good for predicting trends... but not for actually prediction specific people. On the plus side... The system did pick Ace and Bucky in the bottom 3. Paris was totally safe. And Bucky went as scheduled, with the one-week delay due to his pimp spot. On the negative side... It didn't see Elliott's immediate return to the bottom 3 coming. (My guess is his fanbase isn't big enough to save him even during as vote spike. That's a sure sign of doom for him as that's what happened to Lisa as well.) So, this weeks picks are as follows: BOOTPICK: Elliott (bottom 3 two weeks ago, last week's 'vote spike' didn't save him) BOTTOM 2: Paris (bottom 3 two weeks ago) The other person in the bottom 3 could be any of the remaining contestants except the person who gets the pimp spot. (Katherine has been in the bottom 3 before, but since that was more than 2 weeks ago, she starts from scratch, on equal footing with Kellie, Taylor and Chris) Totally safe: Ace (In this case it seems like the system will be wrong again, because Ace's fan base seems unlikely to save him even with a vote spike.)   Top

nailbone 27263 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-13-06, 05:41 PM (EST) 18. "RE: Final Nine Update" Wonder if the surprise 3rd will be Chris, based on his low DialIdol placing this week, and the possibly catastrophic song choices available. Sig by Arkie!! Holey carp! My blog! MySpace! Official OT Tassel Adjuster o-   Top

FFantasyFX 1028 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 04-14-06, 00:05 AM (EST) 19. "RE: Final Nine Update" Heh . . . instinctively I would agree with you about Ace's chances next week, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say he actually makes a good song choice, sings it well, and escapes the wrath of the bottom three . . . besides, Ace is the ONLY one whose bottom three placement has been perfectly predicted by your system, Larry; we can't lose him to the dark side as well!   Top

Devious Weasel 18756 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-20-06, 10:28 AM (EST) 20. "RE: Final Nine Update" Two out of three, and your caveat about Ace was right as well.   Top

TODDLJ 421 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 04-23-06, 06:35 PM (EST) 21. "RE: Larry's Predictor" LAST EDITED ON 04-23-06 AT 06:35 PM (EST) Reminder for this week... The chart predicts: Bottom 3: 100% Elliott (who was bottom three two weeks ago and safe last week.) I don't see any way he can keep out of the bottom three this week. Bootpick. Two of: Kellie, Taylor and Katherine will make up the rest of the bottom 3... so that means likely one of the bottom 3 will be someone who hasn't been there yet. Likely: Katherine, who has been there before, and Kellie, who may get a delayed vote-dive from her weak performance last week. Safe: 100% Safe: Chris will get a vote-spike from last week's bottom three appearance. Likely also safe: Paris will get a vote spike from last week's bottom 3 appearance   Top

jazzyjeff 10 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 04-24-06, 08:47 AM (EST) 22. "RE: Larry's Predictor" Wow. I wonder how accurate this will be going forward. With less and less contestants to choose, I think that people will start to just vote for their favorite one or two to make sure they don't get voted off. I think Chris will be safe for a long while. His fans will not let it happen to him again.   Top

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