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Seyz 198 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 11-16-01, 01:14 AM (EST) "Relationships After Episode 6" I think Episode 6 clears up so relationship issues that we haven't be as clear about before. KimP and Brandon- After showing the ethical morals of KimP and Brandon, I think we can be 100% sure that KimP and Brandon are going to stay together 'til the end no matter what happens. All this speculation about KimP betraying Brandon won't occur. This episode clearly shows that KimP would rather play moral than dirty and she's clearly EXTREMELY tight with Brandon. After they won the reward challenge, who did she jump on to? Brandon. Who did she stay up talking to at night? Brandon. Who is she unwilling to betray because she knows that person would never betray her? Brandon. Therefore, it's pretty obvious that Brandon and KimP are sticking together to the end. And for all we know.. they might be able to.. as 2 people.. they are no longer a threat... It doesn't make sense for anyone to try to break them up yet...After this episode.. I'm kinda hoping that they'll be able to last longer in the game. It makes the game more interesting to know that these 2 are so tight. Kelly- Any doubts about Kelly sticking with the Borans are gone now. She seems to be sticking to the Ex-Borans.. no matter what her situation is. I no longer see her joining Brandon or Kim. Personally, I think that's kinda stupid.. because if she doesn't break up the LETK alliance soon.. she won't ever have the chance to again. Ex-Borans- Ex-Borans are ALL sticking together , including Clarence who seems to have redeemed himself.. Everyone's joking with him now.. as if he's everyone's buddy. It seems like Kelly, Ethan, MamaKim, Lex, Tom and Clarence aren't defecting anytime soon. I wouldn't be surprised if they're the last 6 standing. Theresa and Frank- I think bells should be ringing in their heads now. It should be extremely clear that the Ex-borans are picking off the Ex-Sambaru's one by one. They should be realizing that they're in immediate danger. I don't think MamaKim EVER had the intention of joining up with Theresa and Frank. If either Theresa or Frank goes next.. you can bet that whoever's left will probably realize that something's not wrong and he/She will probably join back with Brandon and Kim.. but.. too late.. too slow... game over. MamaKim- Last chance to break up the LET alliance.. will she? Doesn't seem like she will.. Perhaps not smart enough? Perhaps she has a secret alliance Ethan? Who knows? Conclusion- Everyone one of the Ex-Sambarus Brandon,Kim,Theresa and Frank seem to be in danger of being voted off. ... so Ex-Borans Final 6??? maybe.... But somehow I get the feeling that after this episode MB will start to favor Brandon and Kim.. Remember he doesn't like the show being too predictable.. and right now it seems like Kim and Brandon are sure goners.. MB would probably try to "save" them somehow.. otherwise.. it's starting to get too predictable again. Seyz   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Relationships After Episode 6 Rose Red 11-16-01 1  More insight into original Boran sleeeve 11-16-01 2    RE: More insight into original Bora... Rose Red 11-16-01 3        RE: More insight into original Bora... King William 11-16-01 4  Kelly is the key speedster22 11-16-01 5    RE: Kelly is the key Superman 11-16-01 6    RE: Kelly is the key PepeLePew13 11-16-01 7        RE: Kelly is the key Ogachu 11-16-01 8            RE: Kelly is the key red 11-16-01 21    RE: Kelly is the key wendyp 11-16-01 20  RE: Relationships After Episode 6 zzz 11-16-01 9  RE: Relationships After Episode 6 Wicked 11-16-01 10    RE: Relationships After Episode 6 justconnect 11-16-01 26        Two Person Alliances Rose Red 11-17-01 28  RE: Relationships After Episode 6 esquire 11-16-01 11  RE: Relationships After Episode 6 Stairway2Dayton 11-16-01 12    RE: Relationships After Episode 6 tackysue 11-16-01 13        RE: Relationships After Episode 6 Rose Red 11-16-01 14            RE: Relationships After Episode 6 zzz 11-16-01 15  One thought AyaK 11-16-01 16  RE: Relationships After Episode 6 Mumbo Jumbo 11-16-01 17    RE: Relationships After Episode 6 zzz 11-16-01 18        RE: Relationships After Episode 6 MDSkinner 11-16-01 19            RE: Relationships After Episode 6 Mumbo Jumbo 11-16-01 23  RE: Relationships After Episode 6 ChipK2 11-16-01 22    RE: Relationships After Episode 6 Loree 11-17-01 30  RE: Relationships After Episode 6 Outfrontgirl 11-16-01 24    RE: Relationships After Episode 6 Naked 11-19-01 31  Conspiracy Theories talljenna 11-16-01 25    RE: Conspiracy Theories I_AM_HE 11-17-01 27        RE: Conspiracy Theories gemstone 11-17-01 29

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Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 11-16-01, 01:35 AM (EST) 1. "RE: Relationships After Episode 6" Excellent anaylsis. I am surprised to agree with you that I now like Brandon and Kim Pee. The Boron now have more members that the AFL-CIO. I'm a sucker for underdogs. Brandon and Kim Pee won't win, but they could go farther than anyone expects them to. They are not physical threats. Clarence, however, is. Ba Bye Clarence. You had the tell-tale beaucoup face-time tonight and Teresa, the next on Diane's list, did not.   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 11-16-01, 02:11 AM (EST) 2. "More insight into original Boran" Recall from the Insider Clips: Lex and Ethan are two peas in a pod... they do everything together... Tom is the third one in this three-person alliance. Kelly and Clarence are allied... they both have some dislike for Lex's condescending attitude... they felt that they also had Mama Kim's vote, but that was when Mama Kim was the obvious target... now that she's safe, it could be a new ball game. I think that Tom feels safe in his alliance... however, Mama may not... and Teresa and Frank will be waiting in the wings to capitalize on that. With a 6-4 advantage, and Samburu strongly divided, it might be wise to begin to cannibalize Boran right away (instead of voting off a Samburu as strategy would traditionally dictate)... think of the Jerri and Amber boots... you vote off those in your tribe that are not in your alliance when you have the chance, before they have a chance to jump ship. If people get wind of this, there's a possibility for Mama Kim to defect to the remnants of the OFA and for Kelly and/or Clarence to defect to the remnants of the GXA. If Clarence is voted out next (strong possibility, IMO... especially with the chicken face time), and Mama and Kelly defect as above, that could lead to three warring alliances of three... and then it becomes an issue of which alliances team up in any individual episode to make their votes (or we could have the first ever three-way tie!) It should be noted that (as of now) Clarence, Frank, and Tom are the only ones with previous votes to their name... if Kelly, Brandon and Kim teamed up, they would be the only alliance without any previous votes... but they would also be the most likely targets of both of the other alliances. You never know what might be up my sleeeve...   Top

Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 11-16-01, 02:32 AM (EST) 3. "RE: More insight into original Boran" I think Mamakim's loyalties are to the first three guys who saved her thonged butt- Ethan, Lex and Tom, in that order. She also likes Kelly. Ethan's running this show, until they all decide that he's too much of a threat and vote him out. But if he keeps winning the immunities a la Colby, the Sambooboos are going, going, gone, and Ethan and Mamakim might align with Frank and Teresa. They have no one else. Mamakim might turn on Ethan, but I just think she's too ethical a woman, and beside she sees Ethan as her horse to ride to the winner's circle a la Tina and Colby. Ethan, however, who seems to prefer men over women, may not feel this way. That's why he likes Frank and wants to keep him around until the final two. MB seems to be thinking along these lines in terms of sparing Frank with the Twist and then his speciality, archery, which he lost. Everyone on this show ends up NOT acing their specialites. Keith, a chef, could not could rice, in S2. Tom, a goat herder, that couldn't win a goat-herding challenge, and now Frank, an avid bow hunter, did not ONCE hit his target. If it wasn't for Ethan they all would've lost the IC and they knew it. Did you see how Clarence picked up Ethan after the archery win and threw him around like a little mop-topped Raggedy Andy doll? I thought it was hilarious. And also very telling about their relationship. Clarence is trying to embrace Ethan. Also, Clarence went out of his way to work with the other new Borons in terms of team work, re: the chickens. He didn't just go out and kill them, he consulted with the others every step of the way, which I think is his new M.O. He's a team player now. But he's a physical threat to Ethan in the upcoming individual IC, and Ethan may want him gone NOW.   Top

King William 38 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 11-16-01, 03:57 AM (EST) 4. "RE: More insight into original Boran" Did anyone else notice that Mama gave the "L 4" sign to Kelly? Maybe she tried to give it to everyone and Kelly's the only one with half a clue, but... or maybe she sent it to her ally, I don't know, potential insight there. Lex and Tom and Ethan, maybe Frank. MamaKim and Kelly, (maybe Frank) maybe Brandon and LilKim (no votes!) Clarence gone w/o immunity. 8 to 1, whatever, soon. T-bird gone. I like it, best mexican stand off yet, because things could change any minute every ep. King William   Top

speedster22 11 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 11-16-01, 06:46 AM (EST) 5. "Kelly is the key" Hey y'all, I CANNOT believe I'm ACTUALLY writing a message on here! I've been lurking on the survivor sucks and survivor blows boards since the first survivor... anywho, here's my little analysis of relationships on the show. I think that before you do ANY kind of analysis on the show, you have to first think about WHAT is being shown and WHAT ISN'T being shown. For example, the fact that we weren't sure that kim would totally be loyal to brandon until today is because burnett wanted us to wonder is kim could actually betray brandon. That's why kim really hasn't been shown on TV showing her cards (how she feels about the situation and what she wants to do about it). Normally she has just offered comments on group dynamics or repeated what brandon or lindsey has said. As for the show as a whole... there are relationships that are being shown on the show and there are relationships that exist that AREN'T being shown on the show. And it is probably within ONE of the relationships that AREN'T being shown where we will find our final two. Now I'm just going to go through my take on different relationships on the show and then I'm going to explain why I think KELLY IS THE KEY!! Just keep in mind I have no life (hence why I'm writing this in 4 in the morning) and I subscribed to survivor insider (which I think has herrings and real clues)... KIMP and BRANDON... they are definitely tight. And honestly... lindsey being voted out is the BEST thing that could have happened to them. I think even Silas being voted out was the BEST thing to happen to them. Even if they merged 5-5 and no swap happened, guaranteed theresa or frank would have betrayed them and they all would have been gone. Plus, it was lindsey and silas that were mean to frank and theresa. After the merge happens, if all 4 samburus remain, then I think theresa and frank will think differently on them because both lindsey and silas aren't with them. Now, they both can work on Kelly and maybe lex and try to get them to side with them (which I don't know if that's going to happen). My theory on what'll happen to them is that I think at least one of them will make it to final four BUT I don't see them going anywhere together. Their alliance is revealed and there is NO way any of the other survivors will let them stay together up till final four. Frank and Theresa... this is also a very tight alliance and I don't think they would ever vote for each other. But again, another alliance that has been shown on TV and so I don't think they both have a shot at final four. Maybe one of them... but definitely NOT both. For the same reasons as I mentioned above for kim and brandon. Because silas and lindsey are gone, there is a SLIM chance that samburu might reunite if it gets down to 4 sam and 4 boran... but I have a feeling that boran will never let it get to that point. They are also really tight with kim, which I think may have some bearing on what happens. Ethan, kim, kelly, lex... Now this is where is gets complicated ... and ALOT of my analysis of boran I'm deducting from Kelly's interviews on SURVIVOR INSIDER. She is one smart cookie!! And I think she has an incredible pulse on the various alliances and her own position within these alliances. It just makes sense! Now I debated putting tom in there too, but from what kelly said, I think tom is on the outside looking in. There is the possibility that there is the whole LET alliance, but I will get to that. So from kelly's interview, she made it VERY clear that ETHAN and CLARENCE just DON'T get along, which means any alliance with clarence just wouldn't work. And I think we can all agree that clarence is basically just recapping what STUPID ABC Dr. Sean did on survivor one. He's basically being used by the boran team to ensure they have control. That leaves these four... which I'm going to analyse right now. Ethan and Lex... I think that this is a tight alliance, not from what has been shown on the show, but from the fact that it really HASN'T been highlighted on the show. When they had the swap, ethan mentioned that he'd have to start over in making allies because of the swap and I think it's because he was tight with either just lex or with lex AND tom. Just because I think that lex and ethan think more about the game (tom seems to do a lot of joking around and he admitted himself that he is very happy go lucky) and I think that they were aligned together and THEN they were with Tom. BUT with the whole merger happening, I think it has made ethan paranoid (not that he wasn't to begin with)... but because tom and lex are MUCH closer now, I don't know if ethan will trust that lex and him are an alliance any longer.... *Just a side note... this is why the whole three player SWAP was AWESOME because if really DID change up the game and has made everyone's alliances MUCH more complex!!! ALL of boran's alliances are much more difficult to read. WOOHOO!* kim and kelly... I think that before the swap, kelly and kim were together more out of necessity that anything. That on SURVIVOR INSIDER kelly was talking about how when there were the orginal 6 boran that possibly her, kim and clarence could form an alliance. It was because she KNEW that ethan and lex were really tight and she probably thought that tom was right in there was well. So kelly and kim had an alliance out of necessity. Now this is why the whole swap has changed the dynamics SO much. Kelly ended up with the Genxers and kim ended up with the OFA!!! Now for kelly and kim, it makes their decisions MUCH tougher... do they stick with the orginial boran and know that they most likely won't be winning any ICs when it comes down to the final five (kim, kelly, tom, lex, ethan) and they know LET will most likely stick together, meaning a 3-2 vote. And I think Kelly is COMPLETELY aware of this fact. As is kim. Now this is why I think KELLY IS THE KEY. I think that Kelly is super smart and she is totally thinking ahead. That's why during her SURVIVOR INSIDER interview she said that she'd glad she got to meet the genxers because she could relate to them more and she could possibly join them... at the same time... she KNOWS that if it looks like she is being disloyal to her orginial group that she will most likely be the first one voted off out of the orginal group. From all of her interviews (and on INSIDER she seems to have atleast one indepth interview about her strategy for every episode) I have a feeling that she is going to try desperately to play both sides. She KNOWS that ethan and lex and tom are WAY stronger that her and she has no chance with ICs against them, which is one reason why she would side with kimp and brandon. Now think about mamakim. SHE knows that she has NO CHANCE with ICs against LET so her best shot is with frank and theresa there... but both kelly and mamakim KNOW that if it comes down to final 3 and then they will get voted out cause kimp and brandon would vote together and theresa and frank would vote together. SO.... BOTH of them are going to be aiming to keeping ONE of their TWO samburu members so that they would make be able to pair up with them. And I think both of them know that last chance effort, if they both don't work out, they'll atleast have each other. One last thing (really, it's the LAST)... I really do think that kelly really has a good view on whatz going on. The only question is WHY would burnett show this? That is the only reason why I'm not sure if kelly would get as far as she could. Would burnett really show the eventual winner's strategy so openly?? Either way, she still knows whatz going on with ALL of the alliances so until she get's booted, I'm hoping for more interviews from her. If I go with my theory of the alliance that isn't shown will win this, I think that at the very least mamakim has a good shot at getting to final 2. We shall see. So I'm going to end with that. I'm going to add a new post for my thoughts on group dynamics cause this post is WAAAAY to long (sorry). I hope that this isn't all just BS to you guys and it helps in helping to spoil future episodes. Anyway, I have a midterm in a few hours so I think I better do some last minute cramming (I've been on my break!)... Speedie   Top

Superman 3157 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 11-16-01, 06:51 AM (EST) 6. "RE: Kelly is the key" Welcome aboard, speedie.   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-16-01, 07:28 AM (EST) 7. "RE: Kelly is the key" LAST EDITED ON 11-16-01 AT 07:34 AM (EST) Welcome speedster... do post more often! You know, I think your post is the proverbial steamer -- the more you hold it in, the more of an 'explosion' of information spews out... so drop in and post once in a while to share your thoughts. You present some good, valid points in your post -- indeed we have seen in the past that a hidden alliance amongst the obvious alliances was the one that got Colby and Tina to the final two. Your post is a good reminder that we need to keep our eyes open and our minds open to the fact that we can't take current alliances for granted to stay together. I agree, the two biggest wild cards in Africa right now are Kelly and MamaKim. Which way either of them goes will do so much to potentially turn the camps upside down. A third wild card is when will the merge actually happen so we know how much strategizing the two tribes have within each other before merging - if it's in the next episode, maybe Kelly doesn't have as much time to work on KimP and Brandon to join with her secretly, for example, without having some extra prying eyes to be aware of what they're doing. "Damn you, Carl, for leaving me here with a bunch of misfits." Frank Garrison, Nov. 1/01   Top

Ogachu 58 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 11-16-01, 09:18 AM (EST) 8. "RE: Kelly is the key" A while back there was a thread discussing CBS' behind the scenes coverage right before the first show. There was a comment made by the reporter that (and I'm paraphrasing) "the person who wins the million may not be the one with the best alliance, but the one who stays on top of things." That comment stuck with me and it may not prove true. But who are the ones who are really staying on top of things??? Just a thought. "Your big country ass is climbing a palm tree in the middle of Africa, you realize that, don’t you?" -- Clarence / S3   Top

red 140 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 11-16-01, 03:20 PM (EST) 21. "RE: Kelly is the key" As for your reporter's quote, whether its accurate or not, it sounds like Frank to me.   Top

wendyp 2081 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 11-16-01, 03:06 PM (EST) 20. "RE: Kelly is the key" Everyone is focusing on Frank/Teresa and KimP/Brandon being in trouble. I wonder if we are missing something here. I remember the comment about Silas walking ahead of F/T during part of the walk. There is also the comment that Lindsey and Silas were the ones that were mean and rude to the OFA. What if there is an alliance with F/T/K/B and F/T are seeing who they can recruit from Boran. Remember they were quick to give everyone's voting record and how they are not alligned with the rest of the group. This was the same time that Brandon was critizing Lindsey, almost as if they had a secret alliance with F/T? Could F/T recruit either Clarence or Kim and vote down the men in Boran? Clarence would assume he can win immunity and stick with the Samburu in hopes his old tribe would give him the million. I know this is way out there. But we were shown alot of disagreements and not getting along. Wouldn't that be a great twist that the 4 Samburu pull off taking down the strong Boran after they were down and sure to be extinct? Something to think about.   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 11-16-01, 09:48 AM (EST) 9. "RE: Relationships After Episode 6" Here is my take on the relationships. Frank/Teresa and KimP/Brandon--These pairs are obvious. The only question is whether either pair will get any new partners. I think the answer if fairly obvious and the answer is NO. Let's go down the potential list of partners. Frank/Teresa--KimJ or Clarence. If KimJ wanted to align with F\T, she NEVER would have given hand signals to her old Boran buddies about Lindsey having votes (the "L" signal). She would have wanted to weaken the other major alliance (LET) and to do that would mean hoping the GXAers get one of them. The reason she helped LET is because she is alligned with them (I will get to that more later). Clarence will not join with them because then he would be completely isolated in an alliance of three that was going nowhere with no hope of getting more partners. KimP/Brandon--Kelly. For some reason, some people still have doubts about Kelly switching sides. If she were going to join the GXA, she would have had to do it in E6. It is too late now because they lost Lindsey. She would have sided with them and know of Lex or Tom and try to hook up with more partners at the merge. Why kick off a potential alliance partner if you have any thought about joining her group later? It make NO sense. The only possible thought I have is that she is aligned with Clarence and did not want a five person alliance (B\L\K\K\C) in which 3 were subaligned against her. The only problem with that is that a 4 person alliance of B\K\K\C is too small to win if everyone else teamed up against them. So as much as MB might try to hide it, the Samburu tribe is going extinct rather quickly. LET and KimJ. I have a very strong feeling these four are aligned. As I have stated elsewhere, Ethan's conversation with KimJ in E4 in which they acknowledge she would go if they lost that IC is proof Ethan and KimJ are aligned. I will not go into all the details (I have done that elsewhere) but Ethan never would have told her that her head was on the chopping block if they were not aligned (it would have just been a necessity to give Boran a chance to survive with 2 more ICs to go before the merge). I am not sure exactly what the suballiances are (probably LT and EK), but I am pretty sure the four of them are aligned. If KimJ were not aligned with this group, there is just no way she would have given her old Boran tribemates the hand signals of "L" stands for Lindsey has votes. She would have wanted to diminish LET's strength, not increase it. Clarence and Kelly. These two are the biggest mystery to me--especially Kelly. I think that Clarence is very loosely aligned with the rest of Boran and just hopes to make it to the merge where he hopes to pull a Colby/Kelly and never lose an IC once he is at risk. I think he pretty much knows that this strategy is his best chance, but realizes sticking with Boran is the only way he will even get that chance. The biggest question to me is with whom Kelly is aligned. People keep pointing to the Survivor Insider clip of Kelly and Clarence to prove they have an alliance. I have not seen it, but I have read a transcript (thank you Sleeeve). I am not convinced it should be trusted at face value. I think there is a good chance Kelly lied to Clarence. I see two possibilities. 1--Kelly was being honest with Clarence. This would somewhat support my theory that KimJ is aligned with LET (although not necessarily publicly). Otherwise, Kelly would have said that they would have no problem getting KimJ on board to vote against Lex. KimJ would have done anything at that point to save herself if she were unaligned, but her alliance with Ethan made her agree to go peacefully (I assume her vote would have been for Clarence). I am not sure where a Kelly\Clarence alliance would go. If there really were a Kelly\Clarence alliance, I would think that Kelly would have gone over to the GXA in E6. This leads me to the conclusion she was lying to Clarence--so. 2--Kelly was lying to Clarence. Why would she do that? To keep him on board after the merge. Kelly's job may have been to give Clarence the belief he had a friend to keep him from jumping ship if he made it to the merge. I have to admit, however, that Kelly is the hardest one for me to figure out, and I am not certain what her game plan is at this point.   Top

Wicked 9 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 11-16-01, 10:01 AM (EST) 10. "RE: Relationships After Episode 6" I have to admit a grudging admiration for Brandon, who tried to step in and take the bullet for his alliance mates. That does take a certain amount of guts. I would also note that there was a major hole in Brandon's strategy -- the assumption that the tribal counsel immunity challenge would be another quiz. I was hoping to see the look on Brandon's face when -- facing off against Big Tom -- they put a stick on his shoulders, and started adding water sacks. I would also agree with the post that Kelly is key, although I disagree with some of the details of her analysis. What the 3/3 trade did, was put a real doubt into the post merger politics. Everybody now has a decent amount of insight into the politics of the other camp, which makes the possibility of post-merger cross-tribe alliances much more likely. The way I see it, the post merger group is split 3/2/2/2/1 Lex, Ethan and Tom are tight. MamaKim and Kelley are allied by necessity. Frank and Theresa are tight. Brandon and LilKim are tight. Nobody will touch Clarence with a ten foot pole. Nobody trusts him, and everybody is afraid he will go on a Kelly/Colby immunity run. Obviously, the key lies with Kelly/Kim. They have two options: Keep up with the Boran alliance, in which case L/E/T should be your final three. Ally with one of the Samboro groups, in which case, the final four could consist of K/K/ plus their handpicked Samboro. Wicked   Top

justconnect 9 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 11-16-01, 11:06 PM (EST) 26. "RE: Relationships After Episode 6" Just a small observation, of neglible spoiler value, but interesting perhaps -- there are a lot of fairly obvious 'pairs' this season, lots of two-person mini-alliances. Wonder if that came out of the necessity of posting two-person watches each night?   Top

Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 11-17-01, 01:23 AM (EST) 28. "Two Person Alliances" Yes, you're right. There seem to be MANY two person alliances going this year. And it's all because of the Colby/Tina example in S2.   Top

esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 11-16-01, 10:24 AM (EST) 11. "RE: Relationships After Episode 6" This is really a starnge thought, however.... Both the Frank/Teresa alliance and the Brandon/Kim alliance must realize how vulnerable they are. Only the old S tribe is getting voted off and the old Borans are sticking together like glue. The only way they can have any hope for success is for the old Borans to let them in to their alliance (somethink I think is unlikely) or if out of necessity they form a new alliance together and try and get a disgruntled old Boran (Clarence) to join them. Although I don't think I've seen any evidence of this, it seems like the likely way for F/T and B/K to go forward.   Top

Stairway2Dayton 104 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 11-16-01, 10:25 AM (EST) 12. "RE: Relationships After Episode 6" At this point the players are thinking about who they want in the final four. The final members will definitely come down to the winner of the IC, plus either a weaker player or a disliked player. Personnally, I'd want Brandon with me all the way. He's both weaker and disliked, and so far isn't trying to make any new friends. If the final four is the obvious LETmK, think about how that could play out. Suppose that Ethan wins immunity. Neither Tom nor Lex can vote for Ethan, and they won't vote for mKim because she is the least threatening as far as future immunity challanges go. So, in this scenario Lex and Tom will each vote for the other. Both mKim and Ethan would rather go against Tom in the next challenge, so Lex is out. Now it's ETmK. The final IC is usually cerebral, a how-well-do-you-know-the-losers quiz. Tom can barely remember everyone's first name, so he's lost. I see Ethan winning the IC, he's quiet and observant. I wouldn't want to go against either Tom or mKim in the final two. Hopefully he learned from Colby and will choose Tom. Tom is a fun guy, but I think the majority of the people on the jury will have grown tired of the good 'ole boy routine by then. Of course, if Lex won immunity instead of Ethan, he'd be in the winner's seat. It's all what-if's right now, but the point I'm trying to make is that the strong old Borans need at least one old Samburu to go to the end with them. S2D   Top

tackysue 31 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 11-16-01, 10:50 AM (EST) 13. "RE: Relationships After Episode 6" Long time lurker, first time poster. Well, I kinda disagree. I just don't think any of the Borons would want to take a Samburu with them to the end. In doing so, they would have to break the tribal aliance and thus mark themselves as a traitor. The Borons seem to value loyalty and would rather see an enemy win than a traitor.   Top

Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 11-16-01, 11:36 AM (EST) 14. "RE: Relationships After Episode 6" Welcome, Speedster! Your analysis of Kelly was insightful and fresh. You sound like you're her age. And have the perspective that some of us, er, more mature posters might not have. No, the Borons are all VERY loyal to each other. Kim Jay's flashed "L" says it all. However, the may never merge. We're all assuming a merge. But what if there isn't one? Kingpin Ethan said, the news about the postponed "merge" was driving him "insane." That's because he's such a major strategizer. He even put his glasses on to think about it some more last night. It's "Should I keep and trust Clarence, my only real threat, physically, come the merge? Or do I bust up the Samboobob Two -Frank and Teresa first - because if we don't merge, and we let Clarence go, they could vote against Kim and I 2 vs. 2. It's too risky. And Frank is the one with the vote. So that makes Teresa more of a threat, because she's likable and voteless. I may never see Lex and Tom again. We may never merge. Can I trust Clarence?" Just some random thoughts from the Ethan Zone. The alliance we're NOT being shown, I think, is the Clarence-Ethan one. The three remaining Borons HAD to bond more deeply than before as did the three over at Sambooboo. The merge should've happened last night. And it didn't. At the end of the episode. Tom's "I feel like I'm waiting for a bus that doesn't come" means it's not happening as scheduled. I can't believe that it's going to be AFTER the recrap, er, recap. It seems to me that the public, like the contestants, are gettin' antzy for a change. Could MB be so self-destructive to let this winning formula be tinkered with too much? Also, note how all the CBS descriptions point to Boron this time and virtually none to Sambooboo. That indicates to be ANOTHER Boron TC is coming. And the sick man that gets surrounded by elephants may be Clarence. The wild animals are all over at Boron, where the land is very flat and open. Maybe Clarence gets sick. Isn't there some spoiler floating around about Clarence getting sick? Lindsey certainly didn't, despite all the rumors and spoilers... Ethan, should the Boron go to tribal council again, may want to get rid of Clarence, but if the merge is in doubt, he may go against Teresa, and then be very sorry in the individual ICs that he didn't get rid of the super-strong Clarence when he could have. Also, all of CBS's promo clues seem to focus once again on Clarence. As did a large part of the show last night...Either Clarence is now the star of the show, or he's leaving.   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 11-16-01, 11:50 AM (EST) 15. "RE: Relationships After Episode 6" Rose-- Just a small correction. The merge is NEVER shown at the end of E6. It always happens sometime in the first half of E7. In S1, E7 was the episode where Jenna and Sean had their island heat moment and chose the new tribal name, banner, etc., and they had the first individual competitions and vote. In S2, E7 was the episode where they had "boy/girls night out" and they all went to a new camp location, and they had the first individual competitions and vote. So if there is a traditional merge, it could still be shown right on normal schedule some time in the first half of the next episode. So the Tom quote about the bus means NOTHING. He is stating this while they are waiting for tree mail. He knows there might not be a merge on schedule. But he is stating this at a point in time right before a normal merge would happen. So it is NO idication of whether a merge occurs in E7. At the point Tom is making the comments, he has exactly the same information we have right now--that the merge might or might not be delayed and he will have to wait to find out. He is just complaining about the waiting.   Top

AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-16-01, 01:33 PM (EST) 16. "One thought" First, welcome to all the new posters in this thread. Here's a different question: if you were a two-person alliance, who would you want to take with you to the final four? We found out that Tina and Colby didn't want to take Keith to the final three, but they were too afraid of losing the million to Lis, and Rodger (whom I think they would have taken instead) gallantly fell on his sword in favor of Lis. I guarantee that each of the groups remaining can answer this question -- but that MB hasn't given us enough info to do it. I also don't think that we've seen everything that Kelly is involved in, and I think Kelly may be more connected to Lex and Ethan than anyone has let on. I think MB deliberately gave us that "Insider" clip of Kelly criticizing Ethan (regarding a possible "relationship" between him and Jessie) in E2, so that we'd believe that she was an outsider within Boran ...   Top

Mumbo Jumbo 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 11-16-01, 02:12 PM (EST) 17. "RE: Relationships After Episode 6" A couple of things that I have thought about. Everyone keeps talking about Kelly/Kim doing a breakaway from Boran and picking up a couple of the Samburus. This could happen eventually but it would not be smart to make a move this early. She should wait until only one or two of the Samburus were left and they had few other options for alliances. There should be no unaffiliated people left because then the LET group could pick them up or use them against you. Also, ideally, you would probably want to be a majority in the group. Waiting until there was one Samburu left with five Boran (total six in tribe) would work very well if the samburu had no prior votes against them. Kelly and Mama Kim could pick up Kim then target Tom at TC knowing he has prior votes. Kim would not really be able to betray them because Ke/MK would be the majority and by switching to L/E, Kim P. could still do no better than third without winning immunity which is the same position she has in their group.   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 11-16-01, 02:34 PM (EST) 18. "RE: Relationships After Episode 6" Mumbo-- You make a very intersting point. If you are in a 5 person alliance--and I think that LETKK is a five person alliance--you have a big incentive to betray the alliance if you know you are the 2 that 3 will dump. For example, if Jerri had know that Colby would side against her and Amber, Jerri would have had incentive to betray her "alliance." The trick to keeping a five person alliance together is to make each person think they will make it to the final 3. This, of course, requires lying on one person's part (in S2 that was Colby, which was the reason he lost--the black widow (Jerri) destroyed him). So if we are correct that LETKK is a five person alliance, and if you are correct that KK KNOW that they will be the fifth and fourth players left in the game, they WILL betray LET. I just don't think it will play out that way. I am not convinced that LET is the core of the alliance with KK on the fringe as you seem to assume. I am not sure of all of the dynamics among the old Boran players and that is because MB has hidden this information from us. If he did not hide it from us, we would know the whole story now.   Top

MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 11-16-01, 02:47 PM (EST) 19. "RE: Relationships After Episode 6" zzz- I just want to add to this. I agree with your assessment here, and I am not so sure that KK would be on the "outside" of a 5 person alliance. As you mention, in order for that 5 person alliance to work, one person needs to lie, and I think that Ethan is in a prime position to do that very thing. He is the only one that really seems to be in the middle, and I think that the splitting of the tribes may have really brought that to light. There was a time when I would have said that LET would take it to the final three, but because Ethan has spent some more time with MamaKim he may very well be shifting toward that side of things, and if I were Tom and Lex I would most certainly be concerned about that. Ethan may very well be in the Colby position in this round of Survivor.   Top

Mumbo Jumbo 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 11-16-01, 06:47 PM (EST) 23. "RE: Relationships After Episode 6" What I was trying to say but maybe failing, was that if Kelly/Mama Kim did a breakaway from Boran it should not happen until after several more boots and only if they were convinced of being in 4th & 5th place. The more players in the game, the more possible scenerios or alliances that could form to counteract a move like this. Relationships have to build over time but a counter alliance would probably appear to be a sudden move. I am not totally convinced that the LET alliance will dominate either. LET has come to respect Mama Kim and Kelly (I do think there is both an alliance and emotional bond between these two) and there are some emotional bonds forming with the ladies. There is not necessarily an alliance at this point between the men and women of Boran. MDS, Ethan does seem to have bonded well with everyone. There doesn't seem to be resentment toward him like Kelly and Clarence felt toward Lex. He seems both competent and liked, kind of a male Gretchen or a younger Rodger. Ethan may have the option at the end to chose between either group. His dilemma may be worse than Colby's because there's no morally right choice (like not letting Jerri win). I suspect if it comes to that, he will try to keep his word.   Top

ChipK2 12 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 11-16-01, 03:52 PM (EST) 22. "RE: Relationships After Episode 6" I like your analysis. A very interesting scenario that I've been considering is: IF Kelly is that sharp about what's going on, she HAS to know that Lex is her worst nightmare. After Ethan, he may be the second focal point in the most dangerous alliance. If there is another Samboro TC and she votes with Brandon and KimP against Lex (3-2!) - think of all the wonderful changes that makes! Since Lex and Ethan are the most dangerous after the merge, 1) The Ethan - Lex - Tom connection is broken (Lex brought Tom in). Where does Ethan go? (see item 2) Also, Lex will NOT be on the jury! 2) If Kelly is tight with mKim then after the merge she and mKim have even MORE control. Ethan really has no option except to stick with mKim and would understand the choice Kelly made (He really seems to make cold clear choices about what is best for him in the game at the time - like Coby did). mKim could easily bring T and Frank in, giving them a 5-4 vote majority at worst. Tom and Clarance on the outs have votes against them and either Brandon or KimP would have votes against them from Tom/Lex. 3) Jury Votes: Kelly can pick up Brandon and KimP jury votes this way. Ethan would respect the move and she'd get his jury vote as long as mKim is not in the final. mKim out means she gets her vote. That's 4 out of 7 for the $$$! So she needs to go in against Frank, Tom or Teresa. If either Bradon or KimP go to the end with her Kelly will for sure pick up Frank's vote and maybe Teresa'sv - Still keeping her majority. Total change to the dynamics! .... If only! .... *grin* Unfortunately, as someone else says, the past pattern shows the contestants NOT taking the critical switch when it could win them the game.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-17-01, 05:01 PM (EST) 30. "RE: Relationships After Episode 6" I believe both Kelly and MamaKim need to get rid of Lex at some point if they want to win this game. He seems to be the one that holds the male-alliance together. Tom really seems on the outside like Clarence. And as Clarence said in a clip from last week Ethan will follow whoever he has to. Ethan is a bit paranoid. Lex is the one in the strong middle position of the male Boran alliance. As Kelly stated Lex is the bossy one.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-16-01, 08:21 PM (EST) 24. "RE: Relationships After Episode 6" LAST EDITED ON 11-16-01 AT 08:48 PM (EST) Insider Clips Six give a new look into Kelly's strategy. Per Kelly's Ep6 Insider interview, 1)she would have been really bummed to see Ethan or Kim get booted. 2) She's allied with Lex, Ethan, and Kim in Boran, forget Clarence. She left Tom out of the alliance. This info fits perfectly with Kim J's early Insider clip on alliances, which showed Tom feeling he was in but he's not really in on the loop with the more cerebral players. I have never bought into LET. I think the core alliance has always been E-L-K-K, with Tom the 5th wheel and the K's in danger from the tribe as a whole due to lesser physical strength. 3)Kelly finds the GenXers a nice change because they are her age and they're pro-girl, unlike Boran. She's still playing them to find out info and to keep them from voting against her. She believes them that Frank's a total jerk. She doesn't want to be perceived as playing all sides after the merge so she has to make her allegiance to Boran clear to them. She also doesn't want to make any enemies, something Lindsey and Brandon might have done well to consider. It appears clear to me that Lex irritates Kelly, but he's a very solid part of the alliance, especially since he and Ethan are best pals. I think Ethan's in the best position because everyone likes him, and second is MamaKim, whom everyone likes. Kelly and Lex each have two allies out of the four, and Tom is mostly useful as a vote. If they can keep 5 Boran strong, then that's enough. I'm not at all convinced that anyone wants to pull another player into the top finishers because they're unpopular. Kelly also sees KimP as a threat (as was Lindsey) beccause she's more athletic. It's pretty obvious to me that with four women left in the game, Kelly would prefer to have the young girl slot to herself instead of feeling like the redundant and less fit young girl. MamaKim is the mother figure, after Teresa goes. Ethan's the son, and Lex is the Dad. There we have a nice nuclear family with 2 kids, a boy and a girl. As to where the Final 2 alliances, we are NOT being given a look into Lex, Ethan, or Kim's head about that. In Kim's early clip, she and Lex were at the core, and Kelly was on the same page, and Ethan was noncommittal and kind of paranoid at that time, as we saw when Lex first approached him. From that point, their closest allegiance has been hidden from us, and we have been led to think that MamaKim is marginal to the group, which I don't at all buy. She appears that way at the challenges. In the Insider Clips of life around the fireside, she's an extremely solid presence and grounds them all. I think Ethan really needs a steady presence, as he freaks out rather easily. Kelly's strategy can be shown us (to a degree) because she's so opportunistic, and we never get a sense she's rock solid loyal to anyone. She's all about getting to #1, and not about making friends in the game. She will do what she can to stay in. She has no settled Final 2 alliance to reveal as yet, IMO, but is constantly reevaluating her options. However, she has a 4-person alliance that looks likely to hold and so there's no reason for her to jump ship and join the marginal majorities. Lindsey on Kelly today in her chat: "shes a sneaky little devil." Kelly in Insider 6: she (Kelly) is keeping her poker face on. ----------------------- Edited to mention that a new Insider clip shows Clarence talking about how much he likes and admires Frank for his honor, values, straightforwardness, love of family, and teaching skills. Unfortunately perhaps for Frank, Clarence also admired Diane (at first), Jessie, and Silas.   Top

Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 11-19-01, 02:19 AM (EST) 31. "RE: Relationships After Episode 6" <<<<MamaKim is the mother figure, after Teresa goes. Ethan's the son, and Lex is the Dad. There we have a nice nuclear family with 2 kids, a boy and a girl.>>>> And won't it be fun to watch them eat each other a la Donner party style at the end ..... Naked   Top

talljenna 35 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 11-16-01, 10:52 PM (EST) 25. "Conspiracy Theories" Something has to shake-up Boran alliances or this game becomes sooo predictable the next 5 weeks. Scenario 1A Boran loses IC. Boran dismisses Teresa or Clarence. Tribes merge and Teresa/Clarence, Frank, Brandon & Kimbit follow leaving the 5 core Boran members. Likely, but boring! Scenario 1B Boran loses IC. Clarence. I think Clarence has somewhat redeemed himself for Beangate. He is a strong guy, and seems to carry his load in Boran. I don't think he is fully trusted by Original Boran, but what about Frank and Teresa? I think F/T like all of their new Tribe. Teresa has been probing Mamakim, and F/T probably realize they have no chance at reviving OFA. Clarence is the Wild Card. I think Frank and Teresa like him! I think Clarence feels the same about them. Would they approach Clarence about joining them? It may be the only chance the three of them have to survive, and makes the remaining GXA the swing votes if they merge with nine. Frank convinces Clarence to vote against Ethan, the biggest threat in Immunity Challenges. Ethan & Mamakim vote against Teresa. Merge at 9--Alliances: Orig Boran- Lex (no votes) Kelly (no votes) Tom (3 votes), Mamakim (no votes) New Boran - Frank (1 vote) Teresa (0-2 votes) Clarence (4-6 votes) GXA - Brandon (0 votes) LilKim (0 votes) All of a sudden the remaining Mallrats are courted by both sides! Assume we have a physical challenge, and Clarence wins--then who becomes targeted? It is a gamble to vote against GXA in case you are being targeted. L/E/K/MK must vote F/T. GXA does the math, and decides their only chance is with F/T/C. Tom or Lex go. Suddenly, all alliances are shattered. Scenario 2A Samburua loses IC Kelly. I think Kelly is pretty sharp. Is she using GXA, or does she really like them? Both! I agree with what somone posted--she has enjoyed being around women her age, and in a less male-dominated environment. She may very well be a secret member of the Boran alliance, but what if she is not? I would think she would want to now steer GXA votes to Lex, even if she remains loyal to Boran. They vote: Brandon gets three votes, Lex gets 2. They merge: Original Boran--Ethan (no votes), Mamakim (no votes), Kelly (no votes), Lex (2 votes), Tom (3 votes), Clarence (4 votes) OFA Frank (1 vote) Teresa (no votes) GXA LilKim (no votes) If Kelly is secretly aligned with Ethan/Lex/Mamakim with Tom and Clarence on the outside, she is in wonderful shape. If she feels vulnerable, she approaches Frank/Teresa/Clarence/LilKim about forming a new alliance. I think F/T would accept one Mallrat! Kelly becomes the favorite to win everything. I spoke about loyalty in a post about GXA, and I also see Original Boran (sans Clarence) as being extremely loyal, but unlike GXA, they are all not necessarily friends. But who is the 3rd, 4th, and 5th wheel? Who will splinter? Will Kelly have a chance with Ethan and Lex? Will Ethan and Lex sacrifice Mamakim first? Interesting, but somehow the outsiders have to factor into this equation. (The producers wanted to save Frank!) Okay, I am reaching--but it could happen! talljenna   Top

I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-17-01, 00:32 AM (EST) 27. "RE: Conspiracy Theories" LAST EDITED ON 11-17-01 AT 00:33 AM (EST) I don't think (or hope) this will happen,but it's fun to specualte: Scenario 3A Boran loses IC They vote out Clarence 4-1 Kelly recruits Brandon/Kim P, Kim J recruits Frank/Teresa...6-3 vote against a member of LET, my guess would probably be Tom if he's really on the outside on the Old Boran alliance Then who knows what happens. Maybe Lex joins the New Mall Rat Alliance, and Ethan splits to the New Old Folk Alliance, and we have two new teams going at it. Maybe they reform with LE, and vote off an OFA or GXA...again, who knows Scenario 3B Boran loses IC They vote out Teresa 3-2 Kelly, Kim J, Frank, Brandon, Lil Kim, and maybe Clarence vote out a member of LET, and the following permutations are as endless as under 3A Scenario 3C Samburu loses IC They vote out Brandon or Kim P (I don't see Kelly alienating herself from Old Boran this quickly if she ever does) Same situation as 3B, except with Teresa instead of Kim/Brandon Things could indeed get complicated, especially if LTK want to vote off Frank because they've bought into GXA's lies, but EKC want to vote off a GXA. Would this cause enough friction in Old Boran to split it? My guess is no, that Lex, Ethan, Tom, Kelly, and Kim J will be the final 5. I don't think next week will tell us much about how the rest of the game will shape up, but Episode 8 certainly will!!   Top

gemstone 70 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 11-17-01, 01:52 PM (EST) 29. "RE: Conspiracy Theories" If Clarence does finally realize he is not part of Old Borans endgame, he sides with F\T to boot Ethan, who Clarence does not like according to Kelly on SI. I'm sure he senses he is not safe and F\T would reinforce this to him. He may just decide if I'm not going anywhere then neither is Ethan. Now the Old Boran are outnumbered 5 (including Clarence)-4. Kelly looks at the two sides and decides she would have a better shot with C\T\Kj\F to actually win in the F2. Clarence and Kelly do not like Lex and Kelly has problems with Tom also. T\Kj are weak so she may beat them in challenges and F\C are not liked. She would want B\Kp on the jury because they will not vote for Frank and maybe even Teresa for giving up Silas. Kj\Ke and Ke\C were already semi-aligned before the switch anyway plus it means Old Boran still outnumber Old Samburu, F\T vs Ke\Kj\C so even more benefit in this alliance. F\T have no reason to go after the Rats because they want to outlast them and they are friendly with Kim J so there really should be trust in this alliance until the F5.   Top

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