Ok, a lot has happened, and now that we have all had a little more info and some time to digest some of the stuff it's time to look at each player left in the game... what alliances they have... what strategies they might employee, and then take a step back look at it again... twist it from side to side... and finally start to see some sense to the whole thing.

NewBoran

Ethan - He was in a power position in OldBoran. Based on what has been shown both on the air and in the insider clips, his strongest alliances are with Tom and Lex who now are part of the Samburu tribe. With them gone he now takes on the role of the leader of "OldBoran". Having lost (thrown) the last IC, and having in the process gained a numerical advantage on the displaced Samburu's (Disambu's), OldBoran is now in the driver seat if they loose another IC and are forced to go to TC before the merge. This is both good and bad for Ethan, as the leader he can control the outcome or become a target of friendly fire from the two people he would/should trust the least of the OldBorans (ie MamaKim and Clarence). He is certainly vulnerable this week if NewBoran makes another visit to TC, but will be more vulnerable if the merge is delayed and they don't go this week. In fact if the merge is delayed until E9 (which IMO is last possible date it could be) he is very likely to be ousted. Now if he survives the next couple weeks, and Tom and Lex also survive he is in a great position to coast into the final 4 with his original alliance partners. Plus, he certainly appears to have the physical and mental ability to pull an immunity run if he has to.

MamaKim - Her stock has gone way up recently. The failures of past challenges are now several days behind her, and she is a member of OldBoran. At this point she is in more control of her fate than at any time in the game, and she appears to be smart enough to know it. She also appears to have bonded fairly well with Frank and Linda, and being an older member in that alliance is not a liability like it was in the OldBoran power structure. She also should have the visibility to know that once the merge happens she will be given a little breather room as a "weak" individual immunity threat, but without an alliance to carry her to the end what is the use? Frank and Teresa have to be mighty tempting especially to the outsider looking in, MamaKim. If she sees this and they loose an IC before the merge, look for Ethan to get his walking papers. Under no circumstance do I see her going before the merge.

Clarence - His is a case of good news-bad news-worse news. On the positive side, as a member of the OldBoran's and with the threat of a "late" merge he is likely safe this week should the NewBoran's wind up loosing the IC again. Unfortunately for him that is about the last of the positive news. Once the merge happens his prior votes and his strength are against him. Add to that the Disambu's do not appear to be bonding with him per se, and his days in Africa appear to be numbered. Things can change of course, but my feeling is he makes it to the merge and not much further.

Theresa - She appears to be well liked, and she has been given new life in the game with the switch. She also has a strong and committed alliance with Frank, that is likely to carry her far if they can somehow convert a OldBoran or two to the cause. Unfortunately for her, she is also a friend of Diane's, which does not bode well. If Boran looses the IC this week she's a much better than 50-50 chance of getting the boot from the new tribe.

Frank - No one was more positively impacted from the switch as him. He was gone the next time OldSambu went to TC, and there is little doubt of that. He now has a second chance, and it will be interesting to see if he can use that to his advantage and extend his stay in Africa. He has a strong alliance with Theresa, and that is not likely to broken by him anytime soon. In the short run (ie until the merge) he is safer than Theresa due to his strength and general usefulness, and it would be hard to see him removed from the game before the merge.

Boot likeliness if Boran looses one more IC before the merge:

E6 - Theresa 75%, Ethan 25%,

E7 (no merge)- Theresa 50%, Ethan 50%

E8 (no merge)- Ethan 50%, Clarence 25%, Theresa 25%

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NewSamburu

Lindsey - What once looked like a surefire strategy has now gone down in flames. The alliance she and Silas ran is now gone, though she will not know until the next challenge that Silas is no more. She certainly looks like the most likely candidate this week, and there are so many rumors of her pre-merge demise that it will be hard to pick against her if Samburu does go down this week. That being said not everything is doom and gloom for her. KimP and Brandon appear to be doing their best to "protect" her, and unless she just goes off the deep end (which is certainly possible) there will likely be another tie TC vote when (and if) Samburu goes again. That vote is likely to cost her due to her previous votes, but there is a better than zero chance that the Disbores will pick Brandon instead. If she can somehow sway say Kelly to the Sambu way, then there is an outside chance a reformed MallRat alliance can go the distance, but it aint looking good right now.

LittleKim - What does anyone see in her? I mean geesh all I have see is her whine and cry, and yet some people are convinced she is this very strategic player. I must have missed it is all, and until they get to the water challenge where she can run around in her skimpy swimsuit I will pass on noticing her. Let's see, she cast her lot with the now defunct MallRat alliance. This will cost her dearly. Even if she defects as some have suggested she is no better than 4th on the Disboran sub-alliance. Her only saving grace is perhaps she is weak enough to “not be a threat”, while having enough negatives to be drug along for a guaranteed win in a final match-up.

Brandon - See LilKim above. Appears to be the brains in what is left of the MallRat alliance. Could work on Kelly if they have enough time before they go to TC. Much better approach than going into TC with your best hope as a 3-3 tie and hope that that they pick you and you beat them at trivial pursuit. The other option is to defect, but that strategy is very limited in it's long-term viability. If you can't pick off one of the Disborans pre-merge how far can you really expect to go? Might have higher negatives than LilKim for a final 2 match-up, but he is not likely to be kept around that long.

Kelly - Kelly is the key to the game if the MallRats hope to regain power. It certainly appears unlikely that she will defect though unless Tom or Lex really screw up (and are caught whispering?). This however is her opportunity. She is obviously an outsider to the "power" alliance that controlled the OldBoran's. Her main alliance was with Clarence and MamaKim, and it is likely one or both will be forced to form a new alliance just to make it to the merge. Not to mention Clarence is too vulnerable with his prior votes to be of much use in an 3 person alliance. Some people seem to think there is an unshown alliance with her and say Ethan, but I don't see it. If you couple her insider clip chat with Clarence and the comments by Ethan, Lex, and Tom it is hard to justify an alliance of any significance that she is a part of with any one of them. About the best thing going for her is she is kinda cute, and has been portrayed as less whiney and more useful than any of the MallRats. In a show devoid of likable characters, she may be the only one left.

Tom - Big southern dummy? or strategy playa? Hard to say actually, but he appears to be in a fairly strong alliance with Ethan and Lex. The three are likely to wreak havok on the game if they all make it to the merge and play their cards right, but honestly it looks a little too obvious at this point for that to play out exactly as it would look. Personally I look for LET to go down the drain before the merge as one or more of it's members are strategically voted off. Tom though will be the last as he is the least likely to pull an IC winning string together.

Lex - See Tom. His alliance with Tom is strong. His alliance with Kelly is weak, but holding. As long as they can hold onto Kelly's vote he should be able to make the merge. If he is caught whispering disparaging remarks to Tom about the 4 "women" though look for him to sign his own walking papers, and go to meet Silas on looser island (they have to meet so they can not hit it off right?). Add to that the fact he is the defacto leader of the Disboran alliance (which can't be lost on the MallRats), the fact that they may still believe that the merge is in E7, and the fact leaders and strong players are always targets when you no longer need the "group" win strategy... Lex becomes a likely target whether Kelly has switched or not. Regardless, the remaining Mallies certainly would want to target either Tom or Lex, and not Kelly as they must see her as a potential recuit now that Silas is gone. All that being said I am fairly convinced that by the time NewSambu goes to TC they will have figured out that Lindsey is the one with votes, and unless Kelly has been swayed Lindsey is toast!

Boot likeliness if Samburu looses one more IC before the merge:

E6 - Lindsey 75% , Lex 15%, Tom 5%, Brandon 5%

E7 (no merge)- Lindsey 75% , Lex 25%

E8 (no merge)- Lindsey 50% , Lex 50%

In the end, my gut feel says its Lindsey, Ethan, or Lex this week. Primarily because I dont see how a Theresa boot will make for an "intense" TC. Too bad my gut feel has been SO wrong this season The only thing I'm fairly sure of is someone will be betrayed at TC this week. The question is who? Since Lindsey is too obvious, and Boran looks to win the IC this week... right now I'm going to have to lean towards... Lex this week, Ethan next week (although Theresa might fit better with the spoilers), and Lindsey as the first jury member after the E8 merge.

-ICB

Final four: Frank, Brandon, MamaKim, and Kelly (no order)

You says, "Cowboy... why not?"
I says, "Yeah, why not!"