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"Strategies Going Into W6"
dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-12-01, 10:17 AM (EST)
 
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"Strategies Going Into W6" |
The reshuffling of the tribes certainly has shaken up the traditional Survivor scheme of things, and with the merge point in question the game continues. So, let's evaluate the strategies we see going.GXA3: Brandon, Lindsey and Kim P. continued to hang together as a unit, though there are some obvious cracks in their alliance. I expect Silas vote-off (they will find out about it at RC) to hit them like an A-bomb. Lindsey: She has no workable strategy that I can determine other than relying on GXA. Silas out of the game may actually shock her into a better plan, it couldn't possibly shock her into a worse one. She is the most vulnerable in her tribe because of past votes, but the merge point in doubt works in her favor if she can only see it properly. Brandon: Has his head in the game but not being a valuable player to the tribe may hurt him now that the merge point is in doubt, he will probably recognize that and may bolt from GXA first to make amends with former Boran. Difficult play for him, though, as his friends will notice he's not with them for the first time ever, but he would have to risk it. Kim P.: She's holding back, probably allowing Lindsey to cut her own throat while Brandon, whose lead she isn't following, tries to draw former Boran votes. Smart, but if she's hoping something to develop later in the game in her favor she has to really start paying attention. Kelly: Stuck with the GXA and 2/3 of LET, she too should be looking down the road to moving into a power group at the merge. Relatively safe for the moment since GXA may see her as a potential ally and in any case probably won't make the mistake of thinking she might be carrying votes. Lex/Tom: Sticking together, probably hoping to get back together with Ethan at the merge. Frank/Teresa: Sticking together for the moment, merge in doubt working for them as they try to develop new alliance in New Boran. Kim J.: Has the pivotal power position in New Boran, which is good since she's the most at risk player because of the merge in delay. Illness is her greatest enemy at this point in the game. Clarence: Being strong works to his advantage tremendously with the merge in delay, though his untrustworthy factor (from early in the game) could come back to haunt him. He's wisely laid back since the first week and gone with the flow, though, so if followers are valued by Kim J., who needs at least one very strong ally anyway, he may be in the surprisingly best position on the board this week. Ethan: As the sole member of LET in New Boran he is definitely at risk if Kim J. decides she cannot allow him to reunite with his alliance, as she surely is hoping to reunite with Kelly and must be hoping Kelly doesn't shift into being the fourth in LET. His likability and athletic abilities are his strong suit now and he is playing them well, though he's developing a paranoid outlook (paranoid is good in the game but not if you allow it to control you, you have to control it). Well, that's how I see things right now, I'll be interested in any additional or contrary concepts anyone may have. "If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few miserable individuals might linger, but even these in a year or two would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-12-01, 11:08 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Strategies Going Into W6" |
The only thing that I have to add to this, is that I am not so sure that the merge is "delayed". That is what MB wants us to believe, so he had Jiffy make his quick little comment, but that does not mean that the merge is definitely delayed, just that it may be delayed(to be honest, I will be dissappointed if it is not, but thats just me).So with that being said, I am not sure that Clarence is still in the clear. His strength helps him tremendously if the merge is delayed, but we do not know this for sure, unless I have missed some substantial evidence over the past couple of days.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-13-01, 01:08 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Strategies Going Into W6" |
I agree, the merger may go ahead in episode 7 as usual, but it is actually that the concept that the merge has been delayed which has been introduced to New Boran (and may well spread to New Samburu) to which I am refering. From the promo material it seems that Ethan will play this up which works to his advantage as he is valuable athletically in the challenges (as is Clarence) thus shifting the focus, if New Boran has to go to TC again, onto weaker players (as it worked in Old Boran against Diane and Jessie who were ill and thus, nothing personal, considered weak).
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Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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11-12-01, 11:15 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Strategies Going Into W6" |
Kim J.: Has the pivotal power
>position in New Boran, which
>is good since she's the
>most at risk player because
>of the merge in delay.
> Illness is her greatest
>enemy at this point in
>the game.
>
I agree with all of your well-thought out insights, but you're reading Kim J.-From-Oyster-Bay totally wrong. She's DEVOTED to Ethan, and knows from her idol, Tina Wesson, that she's got a Colby-like good thing going with mop-topped lad. She has no use for Clarence, BTW. And said so in the last episode. She's also working like crazy on developing an alliance with Teresa. But the paranoid hockey player is running this group. And with that mind ***k Jeffy threw at him at the end of the last TC, wherein he thinks the merge is WAY off, AND not reading those last two votes, may have throw him into a tizzy. It's also interesting to point out how many PARANOID-looking vid caps have come up this week on trailers. Ethan in the dark, looking paranoid. Ethan in the daylight, looking paranoid. Ethan looking at the chickens, looking paranoid.I feel for him. I just hope he doesn't do something stupid - like beting the ***t out of Jeff Probst.- Or asserting his vegetarianism at this, a very WRONG moment. No, Mamakim is his life-line to sanity and PROBITY(sorry for the pun) right now. However, he's not gonna listen to her about her new friend Teresa. If Ethan's smart enough, and he DID go to Vassar, for ****s sake, he'll not blow the great advantage he really does have here. Except for Clarence, it's all smooth sailing for him right to the cool million and I do not see him handing it over to Kim at the end, however. A La Colby. No, he'd take someone with him who is not liked as much as Kim could be, and that's Frank. He sees Frank, rightly, as a Keith. EVERYONE would win sitting next to him. And, also, remember Jiffy Fop did the realllllly evil thing to him of not reading those last two votes, which Ethan thinks MIGHT both be for him. Poor Ethan. Kim J. is the only one he can really trust right now. I'm starting to like Teresa, however, and hope she makes it to the merge. "Will there be a feast tonight?" Let's hope so and stay tuned.
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Afreaqua 181 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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11-12-01, 03:34 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Strategies Going Into W6" |
I keep hearing that Ethan is paranoid....I don't get that impression at all. What makes people think that (I'm curious)
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NightScribe 761 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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11-12-01, 04:37 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Strategies Going Into W6" |
This is a great thread, and so, despite the fact that I am supposed to be working, I'd like to respond.I do not believe that Ethan is paranoid at all. I think he is pretending to be paranoid, and MB is editing him as though he is paranoid. The first impression I ever got of Ethan was that he is passive/aggressive. I know passive aggressive -- make someone else out to be the bad guy, and you're in the clear, right? If Ethan keeps yammerin' on about how he thinks others are conspiring against him, or who's going to vote against him, he avoids any discussion of who he is conspiring against or voting against.
Ethan is soooo smart people -- not dumb as made out to be. He knows he's a valuable member of the tribe both athletically and ethically, but he's not playing up on it (taking over, becoming a leader, instigator, or initiator). He's just along for the ride, helping out the team. He's excellent at this because of his years playing soccer, I would argue. In my mind, Ethan wins the most successful UTR survivor. He's liked, he contributes, and there are other threats around (like Clarence). There is no good reason to vote him out, and his alliance within Boran is strong. Even if he branches off with L/T or MK/K near the end of the game, he's got a strong alliance either way. He's really paved the way for himself IMO. I'll say it again on the record: Ethan knows exactly what he's doing, playing the game superbly, and will make it to the final four. In terms of your analysis of Mamma Kim, I couldn't agree more. Folks were saying before the show started that she would be a goner, and they've been saying it ever since. I have argued since then that Kim would be a contender, and she has proven me right. I think she'll go far, and that if a "weakling" should be voted off in Boran, it won't be her -- it's gonna be T-bird. MK's alliance are too strong at this point. I also think she'll be a final four contender. The only thing that may foul her up is the fact that she's too cool and that's a threat (like booting Elisabeth rather than Keith). Lindsey is toast -- her only hope was the GXA, and the GXA lost their power with Silas. Brandi and Kim P. will scramble (and get as far away from their GXA beginnings as possible) but it will be too late for them to reallign with anyone else. The GXA are the most expendable, and nobody likes them. I think they'll get picked off. Clarence -- the first time he loses IC after the merge, I bet he's booted. Too big of an immunity threat. Frank and TBird ride the Boran alliance until it's their turn to go. Final four -- Lex/Ethan/Tom/Mamma Kim
Psssst... I was never here
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katem 3315 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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11-12-01, 06:00 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Strategies Going Into W6" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-12-01 AT 06:02 PM (EST)<it's all smooth sailing for him right to the cool million and I <do not see him handing it over to Kim at the end, however. <A La Colby. No, he'd take someone with him who is not <liked as much as Kim could be, and that's Frank. He sees <Frank, rightly, as a Keith. EVERYONE would win sitting next <to him. I have read stuff like this in other threads in the forum, and I have to say that I do not agree with it. Frank is well liked by the rest of the contestants, EXCEPT the GXA. He was to military for their tastes, and he was right to be that way, they were totally lazy. Keith, on S2, was egotistical and arrogant, he did not think of the consequences of his actions, he was not malicious like Jerri, he just played the game poorly. Frank, on the other hand is very concious of what he does and says, Ethan even said he liked Frank in the last episode.
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Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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11-13-01, 01:32 AM (EST)
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10. "ETHAN AS HAMLET" |
No, sire, he's not mad, he's just feigning madness.
No, sir, Ethan's not paranoid. He's just playing paranoid, and yes, you guys are all right on,he's doing it brilliantly. You know, he's such a good actor, really, he had me, a film and theater critic, totally fooled, but you all showed me the error of my ways and yes, he's PLAYING PARANOID. Bravo, Ethan! Score another goal (I don't know the hockey terminology) on your way to the winner's chair. It seems this entire BOARD is voting for you tonight. If you're reading this, Mazel Tov, bubbela! The million is yours to lose. Ethan's set it up every which way but lose with EVERYBODY. Mamakim, Clarence, Frank, Teresa, Lex, Tom and probably Kelly, too. Is that a majority or what? Will he give it all away at the end like Colby did? Or will he be voted off by his jealous teammates, post-merge. Hmmmmmm....The only one that's physically stronger than him is Clarence, so if CB goes...On the "Clairance" thread elsewhere on this board, there are pix of CB back home in Michigan, I think. He's body language doesn't say "winner" to me. What does everyone else think?
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-13-01, 01:23 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: Strategies Going Into W6" |
Well, first of all, let me say that Ethan seems like a very likable guy in many ways. From his own statements, though, (the two people he was closest to in Old Boran) Lex and Tom were his alliance. Kim J. may like him a lot, but she is savvy enough to play New Boran into breaking up the LET alliance if she decides she needs to do that, and since Lex and Tom are in New Samburu that would mean getting rid of Ethan. This is a fact which I am certain is not lost on either Kim J. or Ethan, and I expect Ethan will be at the forefront of playing "merge in delay" uncertainty to his own advantage if he can.As for the observations of Ethan's paranoia, I recognize that this may be how the show has been editted, but it also has to do with how he elects to phrase himself, refering to Clarence as his greatest threat and so on, plus he also had to deal with Silas in episode 5 who kept trying to play him. Paranoia is a natural aspect of the game, so I am not criticising him for it, but I do have to wonder when it will reach the point where it begins to control him. It does seem to me from episode 5 that he remained in control of himself, but without a clearly inept player like Silas in the forefront it may become a factor that overrules good judgment somewhere along the way.
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