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"Whoa! Susan Hawk on Ep 6--sheds light on twist?"
Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-01-01, 05:48 PM (EST)
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"Whoa! Susan Hawk on Ep 6--sheds light on twist?" |
OMG! Check this out.Text of latest TV guide online: Survivor: Africa I'd Never Do It to You 60 min. By Susan Hawk Let the mind games begin. Days 16, 17 and 18 should be unlike anything we've seen before on Survivor. The game needed a good twist and it looks like it has gotten one. The show was becoming just too predictable. In the first two editions, the players from the individual tribes still stuck together after the merger. Executive producer Mark Burnett couldn't let the stronger tribe just picked off the members of the weaker one again. The game had to be shaken up. Now we'll see just how strong alliances are. Can they hold together if their members are split apart? Normally, this is the time when you vote out someone who is physically threatening to you in individual challenges. But now that circumstances have changed, the weaker players will again be the targets. I still like the Boran folks. I hope they stick together. They've recovered from their boneheaded beginning when they stupidly poured out their water supply on the way to their campsite. Losing two of their players early was actually a blessing in disguise because it helped them to bond, while the Samburu group disintegrated into the Hatfields and the McCoys. This is the first time we've really seen a tribe divide itself so early in the game. And that's going to hurt the tribe's juvies down the road. They had better be careful and not imitate Lindsey, who pretends to be a badass. (She's not that tough.) If they do, they will likely find themselves in trouble with the other players. People just won't stand for that kind of posturing. ------------------------------- Link: http://www.tvguide.com/listings/closerlook.asp?I=-60922&Q=3269134 Looks like he divides up the allies! Does her ref mean Lindsey's still in the game? What other spoilers are in this? Don't think it won't happen just because it hasn't happened yet
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-01-01, 06:13 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Whoa! Susan Hawk on Ep 6--sheds light on twist?" |
Hmmm, maybe I did over-react if she's only speculating about the twist, but she sure sounds like she has a very specific idea of the dynamics change.Re her knowledge: her reviews have had the same TITLE as the CBS episode title, so she must have that much. It may be they gave her info on the rule change so that her speculation would go along the same lines as the audience that has seen Ep. 5. If there is a big shift she would be totally in left field talking about going into the merge etc., so they may have needed to inform her. I agree she is supposed to speculate on Ep 6, but she may have info on what happened in 4 and 5 by the time she writes this. I don't know. I haven't followed the TVGuide history closely.
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samiam 5976 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-01-01, 10:04 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Whoa! Susan Hawk on Ep 6--sheds light on twist?" |
IF there is something to this, this is the part we need to focus on: "Now we'll see just how strong alliances are. Can they hold together if their members are split apart? Normally, this is the time when you vote out someone who is physically threatening to you in individual challenges. But now that circumstances have changed, the weaker players will again be the targets."Normally, in ep 6, you DO want to vote off somebody who is an individual immunity challenge threat. How would they change it so that it is the weaker, and not the stronger members that get voted off? Maybe...instead of MERGING or splitting into three tribes...what would happen if MB did something next week, as they're 6 and 6...swap three members of one tribe with three members of the other, and continue tribe vs. tribe challenges for a few more shows? "If you don't stand for something, you'll fall for anything."
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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-01-01, 10:41 PM (EST)
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7. "MB's Balancing Act..." |
LAST EDITED ON 11-01-01 AT 10:45 PM (EST)I am thinking that MB would have to be extremely careful about giving any sort of ammo to the Stacey legal team... During the time of filming for EP5, MB would have been looking for some means of fixing the voting target situation for both teams... Teresa/Frank on the Samburu side... MamaKim/Kelly on the Boran side. I am beginning to think that a solution that MB's legal counsel may have found palettable at the time would be to simply have an early merge. Merge at 12 instead of 10. The reason given would ostensibly be for health and safety reasons due to the Samburu water situation that received a great deal of coverage today. The real reason would, of course, be to shake up the very predicatble voting dynamics that have appeared. I have asked for a legal opinion from the board's legal minds as to what they think MB's lawyers would be be telling MB about his options as he filmed EP5. This is key, in my opinion. MB's and CBS's lawyers would have to OK nay rule changes or risk really screwing things up on the Stacey Stillman lawsuit front. Edited to Add: - swapping tribe members would be a complete departure from the rules... - splitting into 3 tribes would be a complete departure as well... - merging early would be less of a departure and more of a 'rescheduling'. Couched in the terms of a health and safety issue, this might fly. IMHO - but I'm no lawyer!
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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-01-01, 11:28 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: MB's Balancing Act..." |
At first I thought merging early was the answer too, but it defies the "will alliances stick together if they are split up" question.It's sure going to be interesting. Part of the decision may be based on Samburu's inability to get water. Without pots to boil water, they are just screwed.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-02-01, 00:32 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: Whoa! Susan Hawk on Ep 6--sheds light on twist?" |
As I said above, I do think Susan was given information about the rule twist so she could write a piece that had some relevance to the actual game in ep 6... In other Survivors it wasn't necessary to clue her in; this time it was.I think it's pretty clear that what happens isn't an early merge in terms of a merged tribe. I define a merged tribe as having one name and individual immunity challenges. Clearly Susan is saying the individual challenges will not start in Ep 7 as usual, and so the weak members of a team are still vulnerable. (Terrible news for Kim J if she's on an IC losing team.) 1) You can possibly have a merged campsite without a merged tribe. 2) To shake up existing alliances, you must have existing allies competing on opposite teams. That means a swap of some sort for challenge purposes. 3) Question is, do the swapped go to the other camp, or do they pool their food and water resources in one camp but swap tribe members? 4) Important thing is to have whichever "tribe" goes to TC consist of (probably 3) new members. Question is will the old allies be physically separated on a daily basis as well as in challenges? NOBODY in the preview looks happy when they get the mail. As to the legal question, I feel a little redeemed in my earlier opinions by AyaK's legal opinion. I have been saying since this debate arose that Burnett would have planned the twist before this edition started and NOT changed it on the fly and opened himself up to more allegations of tampering to achieve certain results. If he set it up beforehand then he had no way of knowing what would be the dynamic in Ep 5 when the twist came into play. All he knew was that it would make the game unpredictable again, which is exactly what all the CBS quotes said (and now Sue). Shake it up so it won't be a snooze repetition of the majority tribe Pagonging the minority. *and this is why I picked this sig line for this season* Don't think it won't happen just because it hasn't happened yet
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-02-01, 03:40 AM (EST)
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11. "Ep5 CBS preview text" |
CBS has their preview up on their site now. The video is basically same as this, except for a girl (probably KimP saying OMG<click>). That and they tell you to catch the first 15 minutes at least three times. I wonder if they will substitute this change for the RC or work it into the RC, as there can hardly be time for both. Text: ------------------------------ A SURVIVOR first! Every friendship and every alliance will be shattered. The Survivors thought they knew the game, but the game is about to change…forever! Don't miss the first 15 minutes of the all-new SURVIVOR AFRICA next Thursday!
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Slymmer 61 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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11-02-01, 04:17 AM (EST)
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12. "Lets Twist Again Like we did last summer........ twist?" |
Okay lets take what we got to go on here folks. Every friend, Every alliance is about to be shattered....... Obvious Split not merger, The only thing I could see the merger doing is watching Clarence attempt to join the MallRats and see Frank make a bee line for Tom, thats about it. That would not be a shake that could Shatter EVERY Friend nor EVERY Alliance. Don't miss the first 15 min. ........ Obviously this is going to happen early in the show! I see the only question being is how are these new tribes if they are even that. Imagine if the tribes do not actually trade members but just send folks cross court to live with the joneses... hmmm naw too boring yet. Okay, okay how are these new tribes going to be made??? RC becomes Treasure hunt of luck each player gets there own piece of the puzzle pulled out of a Water buffalos Hide at random the end of the puzzle relocates them at their new home? (Flash back, 100 gallons fresh water enough to ensure each remaining member of the tribe has a gallon of water a day until the merege..... Did anyone figure out the math on that hint???) Anyways moving on, here is the games, how will they be realligned, who will end up on each side, and how will it effect the rest of the game until THE MERGE????hmmmmmmmm I Dunno, I am actually still waitting to watch Episode 4 (have not finished dowloading it yet.) Can I guess more once I have watched??? _____________________________________________________ If Life is but a Dream, what happens when we wake up?
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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-02-01, 09:03 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: Lets Twist Again Like we did last summer........ twist?" |
You make an excellent point about Jeff "leading them astray." Assuming there will not be an ordinary merge after the 6th boot (which is looking more and more likely), Jeff has either intentionally or unintentionally misled them. Last night at TC, he specificially refered to the shape Samburu would be in if they went into the merge even at 5 a piece with Boran but divided as a tribe. If the tribes are going to be reshuffled, split into three tribes, merged early or any other combination we have not contemplated, his statement at TC becomes irrelevant. Thus, either Jeff did not know at the time of last night's TC that the rules would change (i.e., MB only told him the next morning), Jeff knew about the rule change and lied to the members of Samburu OR there is no real rule change and we are all going to be yelling at MB next week for faking us out.This, of course, would also explain the "enough water until the merge" comment. For what ever reason, Jeff is acting as though the rules will not change. Thus, if the rules do change, his commment about the water would be just another lie (or unintentional mistatement).
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AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-02-01, 10:26 AM (EST)
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15. "Disagree" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-02-01 AT 10:27 AM (EST)My apologies for neglecting this thread. zzz, the problem is that if Jeff is INTENTIONALLY misleading the tribes about the time of merge, then MB is open to charges of tampering similar to the Stacey lawsuit. As I've talked about before, the Swedish version of "Survivor", entitled "Expedition Robinson" (as in Robinson Crusoe), has employed (at least for a while) a swap of one player from each tribe in the 5th episode. The dynamics are fascinating: do you swap your weakest player, increasing the chance that the rest of the tribe will win the remaining challenges? Will this player remain "loyal" to the original alliances? Or will he or she become part of a new alliance? I believe that MB had planned this change in advance. I also suspect that, before doing it, he talked about it in general terms with some of his former players ... which is why Susan Hawk finds herself in possession of a real spoiler for the first time. I find Occam's Razor to be STRONGLY applicable here: when two different theories lead to the same result, the simpler one is probably right. One theory is that MB changes the game by introducing a change already part of its Swedish counterpart: a change that MB and his partners in Castaway Productions have done before and understand. Other competing theories are that Susan is off-base (despite the confirmation in the preview), that the swap is done in some other fashion (such as by not having the tribes select the person to be traded or by swapping more people, even though MB would NOT know how such a change would impact game dynamics), or that the merge is somehow different (leading to the possibility of a "game tampering" lawsuit due to Jeffy's 'intentionally misleading' comments). The simplest theory is the first one: the "Expedition Robinson" one-player swap will be made. Of course, something else is POSSIBLE ... but Occam's Razor holds up pretty well when dealing with Mark Burnett, as we learned in last year's E6 (Mike's burned hands).
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-02-01, 12:56 PM (EST)
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19. "Thing about this..." |
I'm with AK, I think the "tribe member swap" thing is the most likely thing to happen. It's been done before (on the Swedish show,) and seems to have worked in the past.But, here's what we know and something to think about: 1) The Ep 5 preview says "It" happens in the first fifteen minutes (meaning Day 13.) 2) Susan quote #1: "Days 16, 17 and 18 should be unlike anything we've seen before on Survivor. The game needed a good twist and it looks like it has gotten one. The show was becoming just too predictable. In the first two editions, the players from the individual tribes still stuck together after the merger." 3) Susan quote #2: "The game had to be shaken up. Now we'll see just how strong alliances are. Can they hold together if their members are split apart? Normally, this is the time when you vote out someone who is physically threatening to you in individual challenges. But now that circumstances have changed, the weaker players will again be the targets." ...if the swap happens in Day 13, then why are Days 16, 17 and 18 -- and not Days 13-15 -- the days that Susan is talking about? -SB
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-02-01, 03:03 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: Thing about this..." |
I agree the GXA will not send one of their own to Boran. They are smart enough to have already been thinking about the previous votes tiebreaker. Therefore they should realize that if they send one of the GXA to Boran, and then the Boran that comes to Samburu joins with Teresa and Frank and targets Silas or Lindsey, then the GXA loses any tiebreaker and is broken and done (unless maybe Boran sends Clarence, who has 4 votes of his own.) -SB PS ...don't be so quick to say that there is no question of MamaKim's loyalty. She knows she's an outsider in the Boran core alliance. She's at best the fourth member of the L/E/T core (and maybe not even that.) She was going to be gone this week if they lost. Yes, due to her weakness she might not be a target when immunity shifts to individual challenges, but she still should be shopping around for a better deal.
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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-02-01, 01:06 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Disagree" |
While I generally agree with your post, there is one point I am having a problem with. I agree that the most likely result is the swapping of 1, 2 or 3 players. You say only 1 swap--fine, maybe you are correct but that would not "destroy all friendships and alliances" as the promo promises. My point, however, is that if you are correct that it is a switch of 1 person from each tribe--Jeff was misleading the players. He told Boran--you will have water until the merge. Well--if I am switched to Samburu, I was part of that reward and now I don't have the water. Jeff lied to me. Even more to the point, Jeff made a comment last night at TC that if they go to the merge with 4 strong and 1 weak with the other tribe 5 united, the tribe is in touble. If the next day they switch a tribe member with Boran, that comment was very misleading.
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-02-01, 01:21 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Disagree" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-02-01 AT 01:21 PM (EST)>say only 1 swap--fine, maybe you are >correct but that would not "destroy all >friendships and alliances" as the promo promises Actually, swap Tom for Lindsey and I think this happens. ...if Tom joins the OFA, then then Samburu is back to a 3/3 split with Silas having 3 previous votes. If Samburu loses again, then Silas could be gone in a tiebreaker. ...if Lindsey joins with Kelly and MamaKim, then Boran is split 3/3 (Lex/Ethan/Clarence versus Lindsey/MamaKim/Kelly) If Boran loses again, Clarence could be booted in the tiebreaker and the Boran sub-alliance is over. With just one switch things can become undone very quickly. Don't read TOO much into the promo -- obviously there is NO WAY they can destroy EVERY FRIENDSHIP, a lot of this is just marketing department spin. -SB
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Nitemare 3 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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11-02-01, 10:55 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: Lets Twist Again Like we did last summer........ twist?" |
jeff knew, look at his last commentI don't have the exact quote, but first he chastizes them for going into a merge weak (and you know they tailor IC to encourage a 5-5 split with the merge, I still have my mike from S2 theories that he was paid to burn his hands). The he brings back up silas' comment about this game always changes, and foreshadows that Silas was correct in that assumption. Boran = strong, Samburu = screwed. As much as the game should dictate a "too bad" approach, that is not good tv and MB won't let them die of thirst. Look @ the pity rice from S2, for a flag...anyday of the week. Samburu is toast...Water is completely necessary. Look for an early merge of resourses, but not of tribal lines(livng as one group, but still samburu and boran)
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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-02-01, 11:27 AM (EST)
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17. "Off the wall idea" |
What if the twist is that the Survivors on each tribe get to watch the confessionals made by their tribemates. There tends to be a lot of bashing in them and MB can show them clips that would make them distrust their friends. Brandon even talked kinda bad about Lindsey in one of his confessionals last night and it would devastate her to see that.Break down trust. That way you split people up without physically splitting them up. Another option is the have the guys live together and the girls live together situation like they did pre-merge in S2. This would be a good opportunity for the "Brandon's homosexuality" issue to come up. I like the "trade one member" idea as well, but wouldn't that person become the obvious target of the other team if they lost an IC?
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juan 4 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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11-02-01, 03:42 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: Off the wall idea" |
havent gotten through all the posts, so dont yell if this has been stated elsewhere. what if the two tribes have to pick say 3 people to go to the other tribe, thus your swap, but with more people. this would create a situation where the newly swapped players wouldnt be easy targets, because each tribe would be equally represented (thus potential for ties, explaining all the fuss of pointing out before last show that lindsay has four votes). this would force any alliances to lose members, and force members within alliances to vote someone out and possibly to their demise. if friendships and alliances are really broken, they have to be forced to turn on each other.
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Dalton 1271 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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11-02-01, 01:12 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Two Theories...and some thoughts...." |
Last night during the Samburu Tribal Council Brandy Boy was bragging that the GXA was FOUR strong and would stay that way.Host Jeff said: "Yes, but what if Samburu goes into the Merge four-alliance with one more person not so "IN"...and BORAN comes into the Merge with a strong FIVE person alliance? Won't you be at a disadvantage then?" This CLEARLY indicates MB intends to boot in E-5; boot in E-6 and MERGE in E-7 with TEN people as usual. Theories about the "TWIST": 1.) In S-1 MB had tropical storms that swept through the tribes. In S-2 MB had the river flood and wash out a campsite. In S-3 all MB has is "wild animals" to work with. I noticed the episodes started off with "nice" animals like Giraffes. Then in each proceeding episode the animals got more threatening (i.e. the lions roaming around in E-3 and the encounter with the Cape Buffalo in E-4). Also, MB threw in quite a few extra clips of baboons, zebra herds and elephants during E-4. So, what if the "Twist" is a herd of elephants or whatever stampede one of the camps; thereby causing chaos and threatening friendships and survival? (JOKE: Say Frank saves Lindsey from charging elephants and she changes into his dedicated follower!) 2.) The fact that MB has used "swap a tribe mate" for his European versions lends credibility to it having been included in the rules for S-3 (even if the viewers had no idea). But if you really want a "Twist" --- instead of Samburu and Boran picking the person THEY want to be given to the other tribe. Turn that on it's head and have Samburu pick the Boran member they want to join them and have Boran pick the Samburu member that they want!!! That way the Tribes would have NO CONTROL over which person goes or stays because the other tribe would be doing the choosing. OK, that's it; any responses? Dalton
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George Tirebiter 2982 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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11-02-01, 02:44 PM (EST)
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27. "Yeah, what she said!" |
> the Tribes would have NO CONTROL over which person goes or stays because (Hearkens back to our old S1 days, doesn't it? After your awesome call last night, I am firmly on the Dalton bandwagon--and don't forget to incapacitate me if I show signs of thinking for myself too much. . .)>the other tribe would be doing the choosing. When I first read AyaK's post (on another thread) last night, I totally rejected the idea of only swapping ONE player--but after pondering awhile, it occurred to me that the manner they chose who to switch could make that more of an impact--especially if they had no control over who it was they would lose. Figured MB didn't dare PICK who was switched (even though he originally selected the tribal split) because someone would cry foul, so it would have to be done either by the teams picking who they got or lost--or perhaps a competition to determine where people wind up. First thing I noticed at the preview last night was that the tree mail announcing the shake-up was NOT well-received, which I figured meant they knew they were being split up or something completely out of their control. I DEFINITELY do not buy that this is an early merge, for whatever that's worth. GT (ohhh, lookee! my 2000th DAW!)
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MakeItStop 1098 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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11-02-01, 01:24 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Whoa! Susan Hawk on Ep 6--sheds light on twist?" |
I agree that a swap of players is the most likely twist and that it was planned in advance. A swap of one person doesn't seem like enough to break all alliances. I'm wondering if we are going to have some type of Red Rover game ...
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-02-01, 03:47 PM (EST)
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32. "1 person swap/Ep 6 competitions" |
Note: I "posted" this an hour ago and then came back and went where the hell did that post go? Forgot to fill in the Subject field. Since then there have been some similar replies but I'm just reposting it as is. ----------------------- I certainly find AyaK's Occam's Razor argument compelling. I wish I had seen the Swedish version and watched it play out.A one player swap could be pretty interesting at this point in that tribes are still looking to win challenges, so they would be tempted to swap out their weakest competitor. With alliances already formed, however, that least athletic person may be at the core of an alliance. Also, the person is ousted in a sense but not booted, and can either turn on their former tribe for switching them or act as a mole. Dalton, I think your animal stampede is interesting in concept but not practical. It's a game preserve, and Burnett had to sign assurances up the wazoo with the Kenyans to leave the animals undisturbed as much as possible. As to the other tribe picking who they want, that would be one way to go, but wouldn't account for the wording of the Ep 5 preview: so tune in to see, who's the one they dismiss Dismiss indicates there's a decision to let someone go, not to choose someone to come over... If this preview's accurate we have the answer in the wording that it's a one-person swap. SB, you asked-- ...if the swap happens in Day 13, then why are Days 16, 17 and 18 -- and not Days 13-15 -- the days that Susan is talking about? Very good question. Susan is writing about Episode 6 and the twist is Episode 5, so my take is she's considering the effect of what came down, and that it or a second twist will change the traditional thinking about the Ep 6 boot. I still see only one way to read her words: they will have team challenges on into Ep7 or beyond. That certainly is one way to stop a majority alliance from picking off the minority, since they cannot control every boot in the middle of the game.
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littlesplitty 24 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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11-02-01, 04:03 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: 1 person swap/Ep 6 competitions" |
I would just like to put my two cents in and say that if you like the idea of the simplicity theory of Occam's Razor, then read the poem for what it's worth. "Dismiss" could simply mean booted. It may be quite interesting to see who the tribes would vote off in the case of an IC loss since the group dynamics would be completely different if a one man switch occurs. The mallbrats wouldn't have the vote in the bag anymore, and the one the tribe dismisses may be a big upset for them. On the other hand, for Boron the dismiss may be difficult because they would have to decide whether or not to cannibalize one of their own or to take out the new guy. I think the one man switch fits, with the tribes choosing who comes over, even considering the word "dismissed". <>< Splitt
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-02-01, 04:30 PM (EST)
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34. "Switchee strategy" |
Assuming that a 1-person switch occurs...Does anyone know enough about the European version(s) to know if that person gets any sort of immunity consideration from that first TC? If the switchee plays it right, it's actually a position of great power because the switchee has the ultimate bargaining chip -- the voting history of the other tribe. If I were the person switched, I would promise my new tribemates the complete voting history of my original tribe...after the merge takes place. As for who gets switched, if the tribes choose which one they wanted to dismiss, I think that it would be Theresa and MamaKim. The Mallrats know they would still have a 4-2 advantage, so they would keep Frank for challenge strength, as well as the hope of making him squirm about being outnumbered. The Boron have already come to terms with letting MamaKim go, and she has been a liability in challenges, so they would be willing to cut her loose. It would be so fun to see Theresa seal the doom of Lindsay and Silas by telling the Boran about their previous votes.
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