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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-25-01, 04:07 PM (EST) "Official SurvivorBlows.com Week 3 Predictions" LAST EDITED ON 10-25-01 AT 04:08 PM (EST) ============================================= NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE THREAD WHERE THE MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS VOTE FOR THEIR 'OFFICIAL' PICK. THAT THREAD IS HERE ============================================= Ok, what can we say -- this week is very difficult (again -- come on Burnett, throw the viewers some bones before they desert you.) We all know what happens this week -- Boran gets visited by lions, Brandon cooks some food for the Mallrats while the Older Folks Alliance (OFA to you and me) goes for water. Silas continues to struggle with whether he should join the Mallrats or the OFA. Lindsey starts feeling severe pain due to dehydration. The tribes roll around some big-ass paper-mache-like "dung balls," and then later (in the scariest Survivor scene since the Dicque's birthday episode) Boran strips damn near naked and we get another great look at Tom (parent's please put the kiddies to bed early.) Anyways, if Samburu loses we have little doubt that Brandon goes. The question is whether Samburu loses. In SurvivorBlows.com's official opinion, the vidcap evidence this week is highly inconclusive. Because of that, we've decided to put greater stock in the Ep4 and Ep5 TV listing descriptions that we do have access to: Episode 4: "A member of the Samburu tribe cracks under pressure as the generation gap continues to split loyalties among the young and old. Meanwhile 2 members of Boran tribe who are especially nervous about being the next to be voted out of the tribe make separate attempts to stay in the game. A trip to the watering hole becomes a dangerous stand-off with an animal known to be one of the deadliest in the area." Episode 5: "You've seen the show And think you know the game But this being Survivor Things aren't always the same So tune in to see Who's the one they dismiss This is definitely the episode You don't want to miss" Looking at Ep4's description, we find it EXTREMELY interesting. First off, the description says BORAN is the tribe of the "two nervous survivors." All the viewers know Lex, Ethan, and Tom are all in an alliance and therefore have little reason to likely worry during the next several days (unless Clarence, Kim, and Kelly were to team up at an Ep3 TC and vote one of Lex, Tom, or Ethan off, in which case the remaining two would certainly be nervous.) The viewers KNOW Clarence, Kelly, and Kim already were nervous in the days leading up to the LAST COUNCIL and there is no reason to believe they would be less nervous this time. Therefore the following question emerges -- why would ONLY TWO Boran's be nervous in Ep4? If Boran didn't go to council in Ep3, then no matter which way you look at it, THREE Boran's should be nervous in Ep 4 -- either Tom, Lex, and Ethan are worried about the case of Clarence defecting to Kim and Kelly (although the men shouldn't worry too much since Clarence would likely lose a tiebreaker) or Clarence, Kim, or Kelly all continuing to worry about the next vote (just as they have been starting since Ep 2.) The only way we can see ONLY TWO Boran's not being nervous is if one of Clarence, Kim, or Kelly is GONE by Ep 4. Yes, we understand the agrument that all six might still be there and Clarence is just arrogantly convinced that he'll remain, but we're not buying it. Let's look at another of the above words: "separate attempts." If Kim and Kelly were both still in the Boran tribe (along with Clarence) at the time of Ep 4, we believe they would *NOT* be making separate attempts -- we think they would be JOINTLY trying to convince Ethan/Tom/Lex to vote out Clarence at the next vote. The only way we see only two Boran's being nervous and those two Boran's making separate attempts is if they are Kelly and Clarence (meaning a Kim boot in Ep 3,) Kim and Clarence (meaning a Kelly boot in Ep 3,) or Kim and Kelly (meaning a Clarence boot in Ep 3.) The bottom line is that based on the Ep 4 description, we can't foresee a logical situation in which that description would be valid and Boran could still have SIX tribe members. Granted, the description could be a complete red herring, but you have to choose to believe something, and we're going to choose to believe that the description is valid. Therefore, the list comes down to Clarence, Kim, or Kelly going in Episode #3. At this point and time we are still believers of the theory that the men are going to desperately keep Clarence around for another vote (unless of course the lack of protein causes his body to begin to completely crumble,) hoping against hope that his strength will help them finally win a IC challenge. As such, either Kelly or MamaKim's head will be on the block -- and due to her perceived lack of strength, as well as what we see as Kelly's friendliness with other other Borans -- MamaKim will be sent packing. For our alternate pick this week, we're going to operate under the assumption that all the above is COMPLETELY WRONG and therefore pick BRANDON as our alternate selection As far as the Reward Challenge, we agree with IceCat and others that this will be a subjective challenge and that Boran will win. Maybe the reward is some livestock and that's what brings the lions close to camp (and if so, maybe it forces them to eat it all quickly and therefore be VERY STRONG for the Ep4 challenge, but we're getting ahead of myself... ) Anyways, that's it for this week -- to recap: RC Winner: Boran IC Winner: Samburu Bootee Pick: MamaKim Alternate Bootee Pick: Brandon -SB   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Official SurvivorBlows.com Week... Outfrontgirl 10-25-01 1    RE: Official SurvivorBlows.com Week... SurvivorBlows 10-25-01 2        RE: Official SurvivorBlows.com Week... Outfrontgirl 10-25-01 3            RE: Official SurvivorBlows.com Week... NightScribe 10-25-01 4            RE: Official SurvivorBlows.com Week... SurvivorBlows 10-25-01 6  RE: Official SurvivorBlows.com Week... Dalton 10-25-01 5  Hindsight Is 20-20 red 10-26-01 7    RE: Hindsight Is 20-20 SurvivorBlows 10-26-01 8    RE: Hindsight Is 20-20 Outfrontgirl 10-26-01 9

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-25-01, 05:10 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Official SurvivorBlows.com Week 3 Predictions" I am really in agreement with your argument, Webby, and appreciate that you assembled it so logically. To add a little more potential evidence: 1) The IC vidcaps may well be deceptive, but I see a disorganized Boran on their mat and a tight machine on Samburu's. I see MamaKim rolled over by the ball--symbolic perhaps of her fate. I feel sure Boran would look very happy and group hug after a victory at this point. One person (Kelly) hugging another woman whose expression looks utterly out of it in the prior frame (Kim) looks like the stronger woman embracing the sure bootee and trying to comfort her. Kelly looks strong, probably knows SHE doesn't have to worry because SHE didn't blow this challenge. 2) I love Krautboy's reading of the Young and the Untrusted as Kelly and Clarence. I had assumed the Mall Samburus were untrusted, but in fact TRUST was the theme word of Ep. 1 where Clarence broke trust, and so 4 should be the Ep where that comes back to haunt him. 3) I noted a funny thing in the MB teleconference highlights. "Kim...... fun, enjoyed working with her, lot of fun in casting and on show" This may mean nothing, but there's no surname initial and no mention of another Kim in the higlights. I'm quite aware they're only excerpts, but my thought is that Kim Powers (the fun one) may be THE Kim on Mark's mind by the end of the show, becuase Kim J. faded early on. 4) I do have a diverging idea about Lindsey's crash. I think it may happen AFTER the TC, despite the editing of the preview, which makes sense if she was already pushing herself. We may be shown it early on in the preview to fool people into thinking Lindsey is weak in the IC. She is not chosen to sit out, either because it was nothing or because it hasn't happened yet. Well, if she had been lying on the ground moaning I would have her sit out if I were running Samburu. You don't risk cramps during the challenge. Further, Frank and Linda respond callously when she's hurting. If pre-TC, they ought to be concerned out of self-interest, so I think it's after she has helped them win and she has some time before they will need her to compete again. Lastly as to the OFA, very funny. Started me thinking of acronyms and I came up with GAGA--Geezers' Alliance Goes Africa. (or Apeshit) Ya, I know they're far from geezers, but if I'm going to make age jokes I might as well be over the top. Don't think it won't happen just because it hasn't happened yet   Top

SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-25-01, 05:31 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Official SurvivorBlows.com Week 3 Predictions" Good analysis OFG, my only suggestion is that you read the posting about ETOnline.com -- apparently they are saying the dung ball challenge is the RC and it's for 100 gallons of fresh water. ...assuming Boran wins this (based on your thoughts, maybe they don't) there's a school of thought (started by a MamaKim comment in Ep2) that Clarence is still around because he can help carry the water all the way back to camp. That same school of thought would make one believe that if there is no longer was need to get water for a few days (maybe a week?), then Clarence will suddenly become expendable and maybe go this week if Boran loses the IC. Personally, I'm not buying into that idea that much -- my thought is that given the environment, etc., 100 gallons of water isn't that much when you still have another 10 days or so to go until you merge. And other than one comment from MamaKim, there's been no evidence that Lex/Tom/Ethan are keeping Clarence for his water carrying ability moreso than his challenge strength. -SB   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-25-01, 06:06 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Official SurvivorBlows.com Week 3 Predictions" Thank you webby, read the ET. Jeez, dammit all, does that mean we haven't been shown any clips from IC? Could that chicken walk scene really be IC--seems absurd. How reliable is ETOnline? 100%? Could they have mixed up the challenges? Winning water would definitely explain why Boran strips--some extra drinking water, they can wash with (I hope) the camp-boiled water. I already thought Boran won IC, but from an SOS type challenge. As to Clarence--I think there's no way Boran will cut him loose if they lose IC again. Of course they want him for the challenges. Water-carrying is an additional, not primary, benefit in keeping him. I am eager to know if you are revising your prediction based on this ET thing. This week is driving me nuts...   Top

NightScribe 761 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-25-01, 06:39 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Official SurvivorBlows.com Week 3 Predictions" The implications of winning 100 gallons of water would be, to say the least, astronomical. Think about it -- ten days until the merge (whichever tribe wins it will want to use the water before the merge so as not to share) 100 gallons divided by ten days is ten gallons per day. That's over a gallon a day per person (almoist two for Boran). Probably enough to keep them hydrated and in good health. p.s. I like the acronym OFA, but someone on the vote thread called them the "tribal elders" which I like better -- what do you think? Fighting illiteracy by day and writer's block by night   Top

SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-25-01, 07:27 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Official SurvivorBlows.com Week 3 Predictions" >I am eager to know if you are revising your prediction >based on this ET thing. This week is driving >me nuts... I'm not revising anything -- the actual challenge was not really relevant to the pick. The only place it might become relevant is if, due to the 100 gallons of water that they have acquired, Boran decides to hurry up the process and boot Clarence a little earlier. But like you mentioned, I still believe the "having him for challenges" reason is th eprimary reason for keeping him around -- not because he can haul water. ...the only way I see Clarence going today is if his body is already showing a lot of stress from the lack of protein (which might happen.) -SB   Top

Dalton 1271 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 10-25-01, 06:54 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Official SurvivorBlows.com Week 3 Predictions" I just viewed the E! show on Survivor 3 --- see full explanation I posted in that thread. And, take a look at the "voting thread"! Guess who snuck in at vote #86 and voted for Brandon?? Clue: He has a pointy head and red nose!! LOL. Dalton   Top

red 140 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-26-01, 01:36 AM (EST) 7. "Hindsight Is 20-20" Two Questions: Outfrontgirl: You picked Boran to win RC which you thought would be an SOS sort of thing. Where'd you get the SOS from? Simply because they've done it in the past? Pretty damn good guess. If you had any insight, that would be useful. Why'd everyone pick Brandon? I've been reading rumors on other sites that Brandon' homosexuality is supposed to become an issue later in the game. Well, just at some point in the game. Since it hasn't happened yet, I'd have eliminated him from the vote. Granted, I have no bragging rights since I thought Boran would go again. But as far as spoiling goes, these two things stick in my head. Oh, and I'm so glad Boran stripped. It really helped them win immunity.   Top

SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-26-01, 02:01 AM (EST) 8. "RE: Hindsight Is 20-20" My guess is the SOS thing was for the same reason I persoannly had -- it was what was done in Survivor I. As far as "why Brandon" it seemed clear from the first two episodes and the Insider clips that he was not well liked by Frank and Carl (the two how were perceived to be the "leaders" of the OFA.) Compound that with the TV guide description that someone basically steals some food and cooks for his friends while the rest were at the water hole -- a description that most agreed to be Brandon -- and it seemed quite clear Brandon would be the target of the OFA. ...of course, no one counted on the OFA never learning of Brandon's transgression. -SB   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-26-01, 02:25 AM (EST) 9. "RE: Hindsight Is 20-20" red, I can't take credit where none is due. The SOS was ID'd by someone (I should remember, sorry, but you can check) on Bungler's Vidcap thread. I remembered it from S1 and bought the theory. I also agreed with IceCat's argument that it would be RC, not IC. His reasoning was good, but I am starting to despair when it comes to using reason with this game. As for Brandon, my alternate too, it was between him and Lindsey. I thought the same as SB, and also bought into the "red herring" theory regarding Lindsey--too much focus on her in the previews meant she was not the bootee. Well, she wasn't, but she WAS indeed the OFA pick... Should have gone with the 'Kimmi is too obvious, can't be Kimmi, fooled you, it was Kimmi' lesson from last season. We all spoiled the tiebreaker too, except we thought it was in Ep.5. Back to the spoiling board...   Top

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