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"Has a team ever finished 1st on 3 consecutive legs?"
FFantasyFX 1028 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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08-11-04, 11:33 PM (EST)
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1. "Short Answer, Long Answer, and Historical Comparison" |
Short Answer: No.But it wouldn't be quite as much fun if we left it at that, would it. I thought it might be interesting to compare Colin & Christie's early performance to that of past TAR racers. To recap, C/C have finished 7th, 6th, 1st, 2nd, 1st, and 1st on each respective leg of the race so far. This puts them in line to break several records, including total number of first place finishes (Current Record: 4) and consecutive first place finishes (Current Record: 2). I'm breaking down the analysis of the top teams based on series. TAR Classic Rob & Brennan lead the way here. While several teams mustered three first place finishes, they were the only team to reach four. Except for the fourth leg (6th place), they also never finished below 4th place. Frank & Margarita also did very well. Three first place finishes, and they never finished below fourth place, except for the fifth leg (5th place). Joe & Bill never finished below 4th place the entire race, but only had one first place finish to their credit. Both Rob & Brennan and Frank & Margarita had two first place finishes in a row. Amazing Race 2 Only Oswald & Danny and Tara & Will managed two consecutive first place finishes. While several teams stepped in with three total first place rankings, no team matched Rob & Brennan's four. Tara & Will were also surprisingly the most consistent racers. Throughout the entire race, they never finished lower than fifth place. Final note: Much to my surprise, Chris & Alex (the eventual winners) were saved by two non-elimination rounds. I had forgotten this tidbit of information, and I think this plus their average ranking puts them a notch or two (or five) below Rob & Brennan. Amazing Race 3 Derek & Drew, Teri & Ian, and Ken & Gerard all got consecutive first place finishes. Derek & Drew also matched Rob & Brennan's record of four overall first place finishes. Interestingly, Flo & Zach were potentially the most consistent team in the race. They never finished below 5th place. However, they also were saved by two non-elimination rounds. Finally, Jon Vito & Jill are vastly overrated in my opinion. In the ten legs in which they competed, they only finished in the top four three times (a 4th, a 3rd, and a 1st when they used the Fast Forward during a surprise non-elimination leg). I suppose there is something to be said for consistently scraping by, but I don't see how they can be considered one of the best teams of all time. Amazing Race 4 Surprisingly, David & Jeff also managed to notch four first place finishes. They also are the only team to double the feat of finishing first in two consecutive legs. Reichen and Chip were the most consistently good team. Except for the first leg (9th place), they never finished below 5th in any subsequent leg. In fact, Christie and Colin can take heart in the fact that all the top teams had rough starts in this particular edition. Besides the eventual winners, Jon & Al only mustered 7-6-6 in the first three legs, David and Jeff were an abysmal 10-5-7-6-6 in the first five legs (which further illustrates their dominance in the later legs), and Kelly and Jon managed 6-3-8-7 in the first four legs. Implications? Given their competition and the number of legs remaining, I think Colin and Christie have a great shot at breaking the total first place finish record and outside chance of obliterating it. Next week, they'll try and become the first team to finish first on three consecutive legs. I'm not a fan of Colin, but I think one has to admit that he's running circles around his opponents right now. Based on other factors (editing), I don't think C/C will end up winning, but out of all the teams that remain, I would be most shocked if C/C are not in the final three.
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buscemi 414 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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08-12-04, 09:35 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Short Answer, Long Answer, and Historical Comparison" |
Great work. Thanks for all the helpful information.
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FFantasyFX 1028 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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08-12-04, 08:35 PM (EST)
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8. "Discussion, More Stats" |
Easy question first: Indeed, Teri & Ian never finished last during the entire race, even counting the non-elimination rounds. This really isn't too remarkable of a feat though. Obviously, only two teams can accomplish this in any given season (the champions and the runner-ups). Of the eight teams who had a chance of reaching this benchmark, five have done so: Rob & Brennan, Frank & Margarita, Tara & Will, Teri & Ian, and Reichen & Chip. Chris & Alex, Flo & Zack, and Kelly & Jon all finished in last place on one or more of the non-elimination legs. Harder Query: This required some more research. I initially agreed with your assessment that Colin & Christie have an advantage in the first place race due to the lack of Fast Forwards. The stats really don't back this up though. Their performance these last four weeks has been pretty amazing. There has usually been one bunching point per leg, but C/C have managed to outduel the other teams and find a way to come out on top consistently. Had Christie not been stumped by the caviar challenge, C/C would have four first place finishes in a row and counting. I was piqued by your query on how the standings would change if you eliminated Fast Forward usage from consideration. Below are the results I came up with. Amazingly, there wasn't too much radical difference. A first place stolen from one team was made up when that team used the Fast Forward themselves. When the Fast Forward was not used/not effective, the 1st place team got credit. If the Fast Forward team came in 1st place, as they usually do (see Joe & Bill, Dennis & Andrew and Monica & Sheree for exceptions), the win was awarded to the 2nd place team. TAR Classic: Bill & Joe: 4 Rob & Brennan: 3 Frank & Margarita: 3 Drew & Kevin: 2 TAR Classic probably represents the biggest flip flop in the standings. Bill & Joe consistently finished second to Fast Forward winners in the early going. This is probably what made them so feared. The irony of course is that their own Fast Forward was eventually their undoing. Anyway, they rocket up to the exclusive 4-win club in this case, while Rob & Brennan fall to three. Amazing Race 2: Chris & Alex: 4 Tara & Will: 3 Oswald & Danny: 2 Blake & Paige: 2 Gary & Dave: 1 Mary & Peach: 1 People kept on swapping first place finishes in this edition thanks to discounting the Fast Forward. Really, not too much change, except for the fact that Chris & Alex ended up with four wins using this method. Amazing Race 3: Derek & Drew: 4 Ken & Gerard: 3 Flo & Zack: 3 Teri & Ian: 2 Aaron & Arianne: 1 Really, much the same here. Lost first places were made up by coming in second to a Fast Forward team on another leg. Amazing Race 4: David & Jeff: 4 Jon & Al: 3.5 Reichen & Chip: 2 Monica & Sheree: 1 Kelly & Jon: 1 Millie & Chuck: .83 Steve & Josh: .33 Amanda & Chris: .33 I forgot that this was the Feel Good Race. If you stepped on the mat with two other reams, I awarded you .33 credits. If you stepped on the mat with one other team, you got .5 credits. None of David & Jeff's wins came from using the Fast Forward; indeed, they didn't use it throughout the entire race. Remarkable consistency all around, except in the case of the Guidos. So, even not counting the effect of the Fast Forward, no one has broken the four first place win plateau. Of course, Colin & Christie are set back as well under this method, since they only have two "true" first place finishes.
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