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"Episode 1: Character Development, plus predictions...."
LoudmouthLee 294 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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10-11-01, 11:06 PM (EST)
 
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"Episode 1: Character Development, plus predictions...." |
Well, for a very eventful 1st episode... here's some characted development things to think about... As was shown on the previews and the first 5 minutes, Ethan (who recieved a LOT of airtime) made his comment about the map problem with Diane. Ethan as well had the first altercation with Clarence in regards to the cherries. Tom and Ethan were also shown "bonding" and flailing around in the nasty water supply. Seemed to be the beginning of a kinship there... For the other tribe, it seemed to be "Frank versus the world"... Frank is a freedom fighter, an extremist in every was, shape and form. He seemed to have rubbed certain people the wrong way. A few predictions from me... At this point in time, from what I have seen, I would predict that FRANK, who recieved the most airtime from the S tribe, will be the next one out. As well, from what I've gathered, just after the first EP, I would venture an educated guess that ETHAN will indeed be one of your final four participants. (holy prediction, batman)... I also see Clarence taking a rather early exit, however, that seems rather obvious. Please comment, add what you will, and if you guys want, I will post one of these every week. Don't forget, it's a TV show  -LML
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-12-01, 01:32 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Episode 1: Character Development, plus predictions...." |
I don't think we can say Ethan is a Final Four survivor yet, but I think he certainly looks like he'll make the merge. Personally, I didn't really think he got THAT much airtime. Remeber all of Greg's airtime in S1 and where he finished.But hey, if we're going to start looking 2-3 months ahead, then I'll say that my gut reaction on the merged tribe (assuming a 5/5 split) is: BORAN: Jessie, Ethan, Lex, Kelly, Tom
SAMBURU: Kim P, Carl, Silas, Brandon, Linda ...Clarence doesn't really seem to understand the game, and Kim J. was nowhere. On Samburu, The Pagongers seem to be hitting it off, so I think Kim P., Silas, Lindsey and Brandon will cover each other's backs although I can't see all four of them making it to the merge. Linda seems to have a clue that you have to bite your tongue in at least the beginning of the game, plus she looks quite bright.
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weltek 16936 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-12-01, 09:19 AM (EST)
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2. "more on character development" |
Things that stick in my mind from the last episode:I agree about Ethan. I think he'll go far, but hope he's got a plan because the nice athletic guy will eventually be seen as a threat. And wow did he get his as* kicked by that challenge. Poor guy. Lex has me puzzled. I couldn't guage tribe members reactions to him. I think he'll be an instigator and therefore hang on for awhile until people catch on to his game. Big Tom...I think once it gets down to merger time, his muscles won't be needed anymore & his "goat farm speak" will get on everyones nerves fast. Jessie...I think she's keeping her mouth shut just enough and will make the merger. Teresa...same as Jesse. Clarence is going in a few episodes. He isn't charismatic and already messed up. Once they feel they can toss him, they will. Lindsey...she may be getting set up for early removal. With all the pre-show rumors, her loud mouth, and face time. I think we may see her exit in a few shows. Silas has me confused. Brandon will stick around for a long time. The girls like him and the guys may see him as an easy one to beat after the merge.
I dont' think it's necessarily true, but I can see the macho guys thinking that. Frank...hm. Michael was kind of that way last season (not quite as bad) and lasted awhile. May have been a contender for winning. So I think Frank's longevity could surprise us. Can't say that anyone else stuck in my mind much.
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ItzLisa 3350 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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10-12-01, 01:41 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Episode 1: Character Development, plus predictions...." |
>BORAN: Jessie, Ethan, Lex, Kelly, Tom
>SAMBURU: Kim P, Carl, Silas, Brandon, Linda Yeah, this seems like a fairly reasonable guesstimate, Webby. I know it's still early, but based on last night... ****************************************
  
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HomeBrewer 104 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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10-12-01, 01:45 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Episode 1: Character Development, plus predictions...." |
I also think Clarence will stay a while. I did not hear much from the women in the tribe. We all know Tom's opinion, but he is a Redneck (Takes one to know one). If you think there is not any racial tension there, you are gravely mistaken. Ethan also said he was pissed off, but realized the need to keep him around. Clarence made a mistake, granted, but it won't get him booted for the next few weeks. Back to the women. They were not as vocal as the guys (Tom, Ethan, Lex) Did they "feel" for Diane, and thus also Clarence's situation. Diane out right lied about her involvement. You could see it in her eyes. Every one of the women voted for Diane, but we were not really shown why. We were not shown the final outcome of the argument. Obviously Clarence convinced someone that he was not such a bad person. The big question is who goes next? I say it is a Samburan. The preview focused on Silas, so he is safe, but someone from his tribe is likely. Lindsey? Brandon?
“Always remember that I have taken more out of alcohol than alcohol has taken out of me.” -Winston Churchill
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-12-01, 10:03 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Episode 1: Character Development, plus predictions...." |
Strangely, I think that I agree with you. Even though Clarence has done an incredible job of making himself the ass of this game, as long as their are team physical challenges it would be crazy for them to get rid of this guy, and I definitely think they learned from the second Survivor and the Kel mistake. He should last at least a couple more weeks even if they do lose immunity. But, if it comes to alliances or the merger, this guy has set himself up as an immediate target. He does nothing(so far) to make himself appealing to the group, and appears to be on virtually everyone's bad side. I think the only reason Tom voted for the guy is because he did not learn from the Kel mistake, and just plain did not like Clarence. At this point I look for Clarence to make it to just before the merger, and at that point he will have to help the team win immunity. If they lose the last immunity challenge pre-merger, I don't see any reason why they would keep him on at this point. Though it is possible he will get somewhat savvy in the next couple of episodes, the odds seem pretty low.
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LoudmouthLee 294 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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10-15-01, 01:42 PM (EST)
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23. "The Kel Factor versus the Colby Factor (What about Clarence?)" |
(Also posting this on its own thread, so it can get more views)To me... this is the most interesting rub here... Kel was axed due to the facade of the Beef Jerky. He was "strong like bull" however, once it came to food... his strength was not an issue... Was it tribal suicide? Obviously not... With Tina AND Colby AND Keith making it to the final three... Maybe that's just guff on my part.. The Colby factor is based on his ability to win IMMUNITY over and over again, being the most adapt to his surroundings, fit as a fiddle and the such. Is it a possibility that he would have been voted off if he would have lost a challenge? Tine would have dug that knife STRAIGHT into his back. Why does this matter? Clarence could very well be in both positions. These people did see what happened in Survivor 2. (or were they there before the run ended?).. However... thinking about it... Kel was fit, and got axed for the beef jerky... Colby was let "stay around" and continually won every single immunity challenge sans Nick. (Was it... 5 in a row?) Will they let Clarence do the same thing? I don't think it's tribal suicide. Please respond and post... I love these types of conversations -LML
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-17-01, 11:51 AM (EST)
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45. "RE: The Kel Factor versus the Colby Factor (What about Clarence?)" |
LML, that is a great point. If these people are thinking about their own future, then it is likely that they will think of last season and Colby's incredible rum, and go ahead and get rid of Clarence, who they appear to dislike anyway. However, on the flip side of that, if they do get rid of him, it makes it far less likely that they will be able to win any of the physical team immunity challenges, and that by getting rid of him they are in turn decreasing their own odds of survival post merger. They need to keep him around, just so they have a shot of having an even number of people when the tribes do merge. The way I see, the Colby run would never have happened if Michael had not fallen into the fire. Kucha was on such a run at the time, and they were still strong and more than capable of winning nearly any of the challenges at that point, that it is likely that if Michael would not have fallen into the fire that Kucha would have had a tribal advantage post merger. If that were the case, the odds are very good that Colby would have been gone in the first tribal council post merger. If I were Clarences team, I would consider that. He is needed just so they can get into the merger without having a 1 or 2 man disadvantage to the other tribe. I personally would rather take my chances on a one on one basis(post merger) than to have to go into the merger and know for a fact that I will be picked off one by one.
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Nitemare 3 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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10-16-01, 11:52 AM (EST)
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32. "RE: Tom's vote" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-16-01 AT 12:03 PM (EST)IMO Tom's vote alienates himself form the rest. He knows it too. I keep hearing racial tension, while this MAY be true, I do not see the evidence everyone else does. I feel their opinions are being made on stereotypes. With that being said I would not be surprised if they were right. Tom sees Clarence as a threat in every way shape and form. Each Tribe needs only one big man, and when it comes down to it, it's between them. Clarence has youth on his side. Casting a vote for Clarence is a smart and stupid move at the same time. Smart = come merger if they are both around he can "leak" the vote a la Kimmie to toss Clarence if they go in 5-5. As well he can further his case as the big man they want around. The fact he used C.B. leads me to believe he WANTED Clarence to know it was him, he wants to create conflict. He has to play up his farming experience like Keith did his cooking. Stupid = He's banking on Clarence being dumb. If Clarence has half a brain he will bend over and take it up the ass, sacrificing his food, his water and his sleep for the team. This can gain him favour once again, especially if he excels in the challenges, and Tom continues complaining. His youth and the fact that most young people are appaulled to racism may work in his favour. I agree he won't make it when it matters, but expect him to stick around until the merger. As for Tom, Alienation is not good, ask Frank as he gets the boot this week. As for the Colby Factor, expect Silas to take that role.
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-17-01, 11:58 AM (EST)
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46. "RE: Episode 1: Character Development, plus predictions...." |
Bebo, here is my only problem with that. I consider what happened in the last season of survivor, and how Jeff was voted off(he and Colby tied and Colby did not have other votes against him). The way I see it, if Tom is stacking votes against Clarence, then he is doing so without thinking of these types of consequences(which is highly possible since I do not think that Tom is the brightest bulb in the box). It is likely that if Clarence makes it to the merger that the other tribe will focus on him first since he appears to be the strongest, and in the event of a tie, that one vote may get Clarence out of the game. Post merger, that is not what Tom would want. So though you may be right, and it may be that Tom is stacking the votes against Clarence, IMO that would be a very dumb move on his part if he is actually thinking ahead to the merger.
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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10-18-01, 11:21 AM (EST)
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53. "RE: Episode 1: Character Development, plus predictions...." |
I will definitely agree with you that I do not think that Boran wants to keep Clarence around until the merger. Howerver, and this is pure speculation on my part, I do think that they are going to want to keep him around until just before the merger, simply for his athletic ability. The key to this game in the past two seasons has been trying to come up with an advantage going into the merger, and then form an alliance beyond that to make it to the finals. Before they are able to get an advantage, they are going to have to win a few challenges, and more imporatantly win immunity. I think it will be fairly easy for Clarence to get one or two people to realize this, just by himself performing well at the challenges and showing that he is not a weak link, at least in that regard. So basically, I doubt that Clarence will be the next one voted out of the Boran tribe. After that, I would tend to agree that it is likely that they will get rid of him. But for the next time that Boran loses immunity(which I don't think will be this week), I think it is likely that the Boran tribe will vote out the weekest of their tribe mates. Again pure speculation, and they most certainly do not like Clarence right now, but for now I think he may be too valuable.
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7o62x39 9 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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10-16-01, 02:18 PM (EST)
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35. "MB's Interest in Body Types / Evolution" |
Great point on Clarence's physiology, SB.I believe that deep within the mind of Mark Burnett is a Nihilistic Darwinist who dreams at night about a post-apocalyptic world where the most adaptable men, like he sees himself, get all the women. One aspect of this is Mark's interest in body types and how evolution has advantaged the body typologies we see around us today. Why aren't humans 250 pounds, 7 feet tall, with 150 IQs, all heterosexual etc... that is stonger, smarter, more reproductive ... Mitchell was cast I believe as much due to Mark's interest in exploring why the world isn't peopled by 7 foot humans as what else he added to the mix. 7 foot humans have no endurance. Great take on Clarence. His artificial body will be shown as weak not strong when fueled by a 300 calorie carbo diet instead of 3,000 calories of protein. Cheers
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-16-01, 08:46 PM (EST)
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41. "RE: MB's Interest in Body Types / Evolution" |
Very smart observation about Clarence. He is going to need alot to eat to maintain. And that could cause more problems with the tribe. Remember on BB2 how Hardy was obsessed with his body and eating. He was always eating and going protein crazy. If Clarence has little to eat he may end up being more of a problem to his team than a help. Right now they kept him because they need his strength. But if his strength isn't available it will be easy for Tom to suggest booting Clarence.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-18-01, 04:00 AM (EST)
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49. "RE: Episode 1: Character Development, plus predictions...." |
When I was trying to figure out why Clarence would be so stupid as to blatantly take extra food, I thought about the body-building mentality: these guys are obsessed with taking in and bulking up. Probably no one ever tells Clarence to tighten the old belt and he came mentally unprepared for that necessity. I wonder if he had some unspoken assumption that the strong man of the team should get extra. Percentage-wise, that is not wrong: it takes much more food to keep his body at status quo than, say, Kelly. Sure, he now knows how it really plays out--that everyone shares alike. His situation reminds me of Gervase who knew he had to win challenges to stay in and was getting too weak on the diet. He went the route of conserving energy between challenges, but we can see that is NOT going to work for Clarence because he's not charming anyone and he has to redeem himself somehow. As I was saying above, I think he has probably never had to adapt to going on subsistence rations. Beyond the fact that his body is dependent on high intake, he has not developed the right mentality to deal with deprivation, and it will evolve as SB suggests... Personally, I see Ethan as the Colby challenge-buster of S3, not Silas or Clarence--despite the carnage at the first IC. I think Ethan is a diehard competitor at the gut level, and that Silas puts more energy into working and people and analyzing the game, although of course it's very early to make a judgment.
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-18-01, 10:02 AM (EST)
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51. "RE: Episode 1: Character Development, plus predictions...." |
>Probably no one ever tells Clarence to tighten the old
>belt and he came mentally unprepared for that necessity.
>
>I wonder if he had some unspoken assumption that the strong
>man of the team should get extra. Percentage-wise, that
>is not wrong: it takes much more food to keep his body
>at status quo than, say, Kelly. Sure, he now knows
>how it really plays out--that everyone shares alike. You make good points here. However, he's no psych major as we're seeing already, nor does he have much common sense in not cluing in the others on his intentions.
>Personally, I see Ethan as the Colby challenge-buster of S3,
>not Silas or Clarence--despite the carnage at the first IC.
>I think Ethan is a diehard competitor at the gut
>level, and that Silas puts more energy into working and
>people and analyzing the game, although of course it's very
>early to make a judgment.
I agree, I think these two are the best bets to do an IC run along with perhaps Frank, although you'd never know it from Ethan's Olympic-quality dirt-eating performance... his endurance as a soccer player may be overrated because he's a goaltender and they don't run continuously like the other guys do on the field (anyone, correct me if i'm wrong on this point) and he sure didn't look all that physically strong with the carriage. 
"What's wrong with her?"
"Oh, it's gonna blow up, dude... in 5 minutes, dude. It's gonna hit the (bleep) ceiling."
"It is?"
"Oh yeah." (maniacal laughter)
Anthony (talking to Adrian) on LC, Oct. 9/01
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Mumbo Jumbo 270 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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10-12-01, 05:46 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Episode 1: Character Development, plus predictions...." |
>I find it very
>interesting that MB did not
>show us any clips of
>the bean incident. Did Diane
>ask for food or did
>he push it on her?
>We don't know and right
>now it is just his
>word against hers. Watching the show, I did not believe Dianne probably because of the smug smirk on her face when Clarence was getting berated. However, I have attached a clip of the CBS.com summary which makes me think that she was telling the truth. From CBS SURVIVOR AFRICA has arrived, and Diane Ogden, a 42-year-old United States Postal Carrier from Lincoln, Nebraska, became the first person voted out of the Boran tribe. Diane, who struggled during and after the extremely physical Immunity Challenge, was persuaded by her fellow tribe member Clarence Black to eat a can of beans while the others were away from camp gathering water. Note the key word here, persuaded (can't change the font). As to Clarence staying, he will be gone premerger. They're keeping him to win the team immunity challenges, but will boot him before the merger to keep him from getting any extra money and keep a Colby immunity run from happening. They will not forget (I wouldn't). Plus the immunity challenges alternate between physical, not physical. That means that boot could be done after challenge five or six without hurting the team as five is likely to be physical with six more mental. Unless he displays a lot more charisma and charm that seen so far, he has got a Nicole-like redemption to pull off and Nicole didn't swipe food.
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allaboutme 13 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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10-12-01, 12:58 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Episode 1: Character Development, plus predictions...." |
Has anyone watched the RealPlayer "extra footage" to see what they showed re: Clarence and the beans? I have a feeling MB is setting us up to think Clarence is gone. Remember Keith early on? He got a few tribal council votes and made it to the final four. They'll keep him for a while for his strength, and if he can make a few friends, he could be there a while.
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Mitrelleum 257 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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10-12-01, 06:58 PM (EST)
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10. "Poor Clarence..." |
Ok, so Clarence may have sealed his fate by being "food untrustworthy". It started out with him eating two cherries. What in God's name made him think he could just take two? Well, that made Ethan suspicious, and after speculating that Clarence might open more food while they were gone, they were right. Stupid, Clarence!
So he made a mistake, and was overbearingly berated for it. He only apologized like a million times, and they just kept ragging on him! I was like "Oh will you all just shut up already! He's sorry for crying out loud!" And I'm sure Diane never once said, "Hey Clarence, don't open that." Just the fact that she ate with him makes her guilty as well. Alas, she is gone. I don't like Tom. Even though it didn't work, voting for Clarence was just plain dumb.
He just couldn't let up, and I'm not black or anything but I wouldn't doubt for a second that Tom's decision to vote for C.B. may have been subconciously prejudiced.
Anyway, according to the previews for next week, the Boran guys seem to bond a little better, so Clarence just may be safe for a while. As for Samburu. Ooh, looks like Silas is stirring up trouble. Silas is showing talking to Lindsey about taking her all the way. Did he say that to everyone? If he didn't, I predict Lindsey will go next just so the rest of Samburu can screw up his plan. I would get rid of Lindsey before Silas, not to mention she was getting on some peoples nerves for being a sarcastic loudmouth, and disrespecting "Mother Africa"
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-12-01, 07:48 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Poor Clarence..." |
I think part of Tom's voting could be a rivalry thing with Clarence too. Tom maybe wants to think of himself as the big strong guy of the team. If he can throw a few extra votes at Clarence it might get rid of him in a tie in the future. Then the team would need Tom more. I notice it was Tom who brought up the fact at the water hole that Clarence can't be trusted. He was already trying to turn the team against Clarence. I do think Tom wants to be the biggest and strongest on the team. Clarence makes Tom look weaker.
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nofinishline 2 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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10-12-01, 09:22 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Poor Clarence..." |
I agree with those of you who think that Clarence is going to be around for a while longer. Just to reiterate what someone else said, the tribe is too smart at this point to cut off their noses to spite thier faces, and rationalize (and rightly so, IMO) that they will need his strength to make it through the more physical immunity challenges.Ethan sure does have a LOT of "issues"...in fact, I think that he used that exact term a few times last night. I feel that his physical strength will wane very soon, as he is very lean and his caloric intake will be dramatically reduced. This also tends to make people exceptionally cranky. I think he's gonna get on people's nerves fairly quickly. The older Kim is flying under the radar and I'm curious to see how her character develops. She sure is in great shape for someone 20 years younger than her. I bet she's gonna be a tough bird, and may make it quite a long way. Tom is quickly working my last nerve. There are speculations flying that he makes it to the final four, based on his dramatic weight loss, but I'd want to boot his butt-crack outta there ASAP. I agree with those here who feel he's a racist. And that drawaaaaallllllllll.......give my ears a friggin' break, please! Now, having said that, what I love about Survivor is how the editing helps me to turn my feelings toward people around eventually. It happened last time with Tina...hated her by episode 2 and loved her in the end. Lindsey....she's my home girl! Ya'll are probably correct in your assumptions that she'll get ousted sooner than later, but I sure am liking her a lot. She's just got that "do or die" attitude that I find so compelling. As for the others...I'm still waiting to catch a glimpse of who I perceive them to be....I have to root for Lex, though, since he lives less than 20 miles from me and has a great rep in our area. You go, boyfriend!! There....my first post...whew! nfl
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African Rose 4 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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10-12-01, 10:10 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Poor Clarence..." |
It is interesting how everyone gets different things out of these
episodes. I feel that Tom, who is obviously fat and out of shape, was trying his best to turn everyone against Clarence so that he (Tom) does not get voted off for not being a physical asset. I believe that he did this because he could see that Ethan was annoyed by Clarence's behavior and was trying to take advantage of it. I don't think that Tom feels secure in the tribe prior to the merger. And, yes, I agree that Tom is probably a racist, and wouldn't be surprised if he is accused of this at some point in the show. I don't believe that Ethan and Tom voted the same in the tribal council, so I don't think there is an alliance there. Ethan is voting with the group and with his head, and Tom went against the group. So, either 1) he was not included in voting discussions with the other members or 2) he was included, but went against them anyway. Either way, it's not a good thing for Tom. I see a big split in this group at some point with Tom and Clarence and possibly hints of racism being the central focus. Clarence would have to be the one to win because of his strength and asset to the group prior to the merger--I mean the guy is amazingly big and strong. They would have to be idiots to vote him off (remember how Ogakor suffered the consequences of voting off Kel prior ot merger).
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7o62x39 9 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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10-15-01, 03:56 PM (EST)
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24. "Clarence is a Short Timer & an Asshole" |
I think we need to be confident enough in ourselves to say:1 Clarence is an asshole 2 Clarence is a bully 3 Clarence has very bad social skills 4 Clarence has trouble telling the truth 5 The tribe rightfully does not trust this asshole, the only people that will link up with him are those desperates who are on their own last gasp. (The fact that mamakim was probably his greatest apologist suggests to me her weak place in the Boran social order). 6 Even the lame ass crew at BB hated this guy Just because Clarence is an African-American 1 Stating the obvious doesn't make me a racist nor does it make Tom or Ethan racists. In my opinion, being afraid/too guilt ridden to call an asshole African-American an asshole is problematic. 2 Clarence will be on a quick ticket back to working/mentoring children (oh great). He won't be the next Boran to go - that'll be most likely mamakim or maybe Kelly or J Cho. But he will be the third Boran to go. Count on it. Cheers
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AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings
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10-12-01, 10:12 PM (EST)
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16. "But of course!" |
LML, the variety of responses and thoughts indicate a HIGH degree of interest -- especially since this was just the first show! Go for it.
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mockingbird 61 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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10-13-01, 04:13 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Episode 1: Character Development, plus predictions...." |
I think the Boran tribe should be very happy with the position Clarence and Diane put them into. If they're smart, they'll realize they now have a very strong person to take with them to the end of the game who cannot win the game(no one will vote for him now if he's final two). A smart tribe-member should befriend him and carry him all the way to the end-a perfect scapegoat! I have a feeling that person could be 'Mama Kim'. She seems very clever. Why not carry him post-merger? He's strong, he'd probably be happy to have a new forgiving 'friend', he could win individual immunities, etc...I would jump at the chance.
Regarding Samburu, I have no idea what's going to happen, but I'm keeping my eye on Kim P. The way she encourages people(to Silas when he dropped the fire sticks)is fantastic. She seemed to
have a little bond with everyone but Frank. Great 1st show!
MOCKINGBIRD
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-14-01, 01:37 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Episode 1: Character Development, plus predictions...." |
>Should I do this thread week
>in and out? You guys
>interested in it? Yep, I'd definitely like to see this type of thing become a regular feature. Great idea, LML! Nice to see you back here, I've heard your name mentioned before and I can see why others would be talking about you! I'm with most of you in that I think Clarence has a real shot at going until maybe Ep.6 and they all would be nuts to let him go further than that if they want to win the game -- he has a real ability to go on a run winning challenges, although the jury is still out on his mental ability. He showed poor judgment and while he did display class in not running from his mistake and being upfront, he needs to show more in order to have a chance at winning some mental reward/immunity challenges. He could, however, surprise if MB chooses not to show his intelligence on camera until later. As for Big Tom... I'm still trying to get a handle on this guy. Did he think that it was safe to assume that Diane was getting the boot and they wouldn't need his vote so he could tack on an extra vote against Clarence for any future tiebreaks? Or was he a total redneck as he's been edited to seem like with an inability to hide his contempt for Clarence? Right now, I'm not so confident anymore of my earlier prediction that he goes really far in the game. My feeling at the moment is that he's going to go before the merger or very shortly after. Why? Jessie, Kelly, MamaKim (despite her move to dump water on the first day), Ethan and Lex all appear to be on more solid footing than Tom in terms of editing in the first ep. That leaves Tom, Clarence and the dearly-departed Diane as the three Borons out assuming MB pulls the strings to ensure a 5-5 merger. The other person that could get the boot pre-merger instead of Tom is Ethan for all the face-time he's gotten, but IMO he's stronger athletically and mentally so he stays. Of course, future shows can be edited to change my feeling on all this.
"What's wrong with her?"
"Oh, it's gonna blow up, dude... in 5 minutes, dude. It's gonna hit the (bleep) ceiling."
"It is?"
"Oh yeah." (maniacal laughter)
Anthony (talking to Adrian) on LC, Oct. 9/01
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toddnick 17 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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10-14-01, 07:38 PM (EST)
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20. "Who Makes The Jury" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-14-01 AT 07:48 PM (EST)The previews suggest that Moron divides by sex and therefore Kumbaya will divide by age. This seems to mesh with the tribe dynamics. Kumbaya Tribe Silas is in "position A" on the Kumbaya tribe and he knows it. His strength and likeabilty make him the "untouchable" tribe member and all alliances therefore want him on their side. The younger group alliance consists of: Brandon/Lindsey/Kim P. with Linda on the outside (she isn't wild about the immaturity of the youngsters but won't be embraced by older alpha males) The older group alliance consists of: Frank/Carl with Teresa on the outside (The older men will look for a female to join-in and Teresa is a more likely choice than Linda, she also is shown bonding with Carl, I think Teresa will also try to play the middle some though) Both need Silas to get them "over the top" The preview made me think that Kumbaya goes to TC next, lots of strategizing for votes. Plus the "who's zooming whom" title refers to Kumbaya's Silas. In addition, no tribe has ever lost the first 2 challenges and Boran has desperation on their side. I think that Silas will play the Colby role of doing whatever he thinks is necessary at any given moment because he knows he is safe. In this case, I think that he will eliminate the "weakest link" that won't totally piss anyone off. Linda seems to me to be the logical choice (Teresa would be second choice). He has the excuse to Younger Alliance that at this stage Linda makes more sense than Frank/Carl in the same way that Diane made more sense than Clarence. Moron Tribe I think that Lex/Ethan are a close bond, and I think that they are also close to Tom and didn't see any of his comments/actions as negative. Rather it seemed to me that Tom spoke the words that Lex/Ethan were thinking, both were quite pissed at Clarence, particularly Ethan. I can see these three keeping Clarence around for strength until he is no longer needed. I suspect that Jessie (possibly Kelly) will be the next to go for Moron.
Insider Clips
Here are my impressions after watching the Insider clips: 1. Tom - His stock went up. He is respected and liked by the tribe. Kelly and Kim J. discuss him and you see him leading the work activities and joking with the tribe. Will be considered a "good guy" from here forward. 2. Jessie - Stock went down. She is referred to by Clarence as weak, she loses their firestick, she tries to write her vote with cap on marker, no sign of "bonding" with the group. 3. Kelly - Stock went up some. Seen working hard and bonding with Kim J. and Tom. 4. Clarence - This guy is trouble. After watching the "extended version" of the Lexture and his accusations against Jessie of losing firestick, I'm not liking Clarence. I'm convinced that he hatched the bean-eating scheme and expected Diane to back up his alibi if he was to be caught. 5. Teresa - Stock went up. She is the mother-figure of the group. Bonds well with her tribemates, is always positive and disarming. 6. Linda - Stock went down. She is invisible, never seen working or bonding with tribe. I think she fits in less than Frank. 7. Carl - Stock went up. He is seen organizing things and Kim P. comments that they love his stories. 8. Lindsey - Stock went up. I like Lindsey, she is funny and resourceful and gets along well with everyone. 9. Silas/Kim P/Brandon - Ho Hum. Get along great together. Locks to make the jury. 10. Frank - Best survival skills of the group, but a rugged individualist, not a "team" guy. Will be kept for a while for challenges, but will not make jury.
Finally the Jury (final 9):
Tom
Ethan
Lex
MamaKim
Silas
Brandon
Kim P
Carl
Teresa (Lindsey will get sick and leave E6 or E7)
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-15-01, 07:01 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: Who Makes The Jury" |
>Insider Clips
>
>Here are my impressions after watching the Insider clips:
>
>1. Tom - His stock went up. He is respected and
>liked by the tribe. Kelly and Kim J. discuss him
>and you see him leading the work activities and joking
>with the tribe. Will be considered a "good guy" from
>here forward. Yes... the clip with Kelly and Kim P. -- as well as "the shakes" clip seem to show Tom as being well liked. Although I'll confess, I hadn't really noticed in the premiere exactly how distinctly this guy speaks, wow, this really is the rural south. >2. Jessie - Stock went down. She is referred to by
>Clarence as weak, she loses their firestick, she tries to
>write her vote with cap on marker, no sign of
>"bonding" with the group. Not only is she put down by Clarence, but Tom, in "the shake" clip also seems to notice how weak and tired she is -- it's Day 1 and he's calling her "our other girl" when talking to Kelly (I guess he was still having problems with names at that point.) He also talks about wanting to take her down to the river tomorrow and along with Ethan give her a bath -- what??? >3. Kelly - Stock went up some. Seen working hard and
>bonding with Kim J. and Tom. I agree, personally I may have underestimated her a bit... she might be a player after all. It will be interesting to see if she starts with the mindgames soon... >4. Clarence - This guy is trouble. After watching the "extended
>version" of the Lexture and his accusations against Jessie of
>losing firestick, I'm not liking Clarence. I'm convinced that he
>hatched the bean-eating scheme and expected Diane to back up
>his alibi if he was to be caught. I agree, also, for all folks saying the "women didn't mind," Kim J. also challenges him repeatedly about the can of food, so at least one of the women appears to mind. >5. Teresa - Stock went up. She is the mother-figure of
>the group. Bonds well with her tribemates, is always positive
>and disarming. She seems to be bonding well with the the young'ins -- Kim P., Lindsey, and Brandon. After watching the clips, at this point I'd say she doing a much better job of bonding than Linda. >6. Linda - Stock went down. She is invisible, never seen
>working or bonding with tribe. I think she fits in
>less than Frank. I have to agree. I posted at the very top of the thread that I thought she was smart, seemed to be biting her tongue, and would probably make the merge. I'm going to take that back now -- now that I've watched the other 47 minutes of footage, it appears to be not so much that she's biting her tongue, but that she's never around. Not a good thing. >7. Carl - Stock went up. He is seen organizing things
>and Kim P. comments that they love his stories. Someone else also voiced support for his stories. Definitely seems to be taking the "camp organizer" role that Frank seems to want so much. >8. Lindsey - Stock went up. I like Lindsey, she is
>funny and resourceful and gets along well with everyone. I agree... this might be another case where my first impression was wrong. She's not exactly coming across as the ditzy blond walking around Portland with cornrows. >9. Silas/Kim P/Brandon - Ho Hum. Get along great together. Locks to make the jury. Well, if Boran had a majority at merge, I think Silas would be their first target, so he might not be a jury lock. I'd throw Lindsey in there as well -- to me, the strongest bond looks to be with Kim, Lindsey and Brandon -- Silas seems friendly, but not as commited to them as they are to him. >10. Frank - Best survival skills of the group, but a
>rugged individualist, not a "team" guy. Will be kept for
>a while for challenges, but will not make jury. I agree, with Carl and Lindsey's climb in "popularity," I'd say Linda and Frank are the most at danger to go right now. After that the next vote might be tough -- you'd have Mom, Dad, and the 4 kids left to pick among themselves. >(Lindsey will get sick and leave E6 or E7) I'm not sure I believe the Lindsey thing yet, I want to see some signs... we'll see...
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Throcky 3 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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10-14-01, 07:49 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Episode 1: Character Development, plus predictions...." |
This is my first post, so be gentle, everyone!
I think that Jessie could possibly go the Ramona route...she seems ill, tired, and lethargic. She might go next week. Although there's a pattern of woman/man going...which that would break.I also see that Clarence COULD go if they are as dumb as they seem. Kel was a fine athlete and his mythical "beef jerky" was enough to deep-six him in episode two of S2. I don't see Frank bonding with anyone over on Subaru (weak joke) but I did notice Carl doing a fair amount of hugging...could be her will go far. Kim is bright---generally, I think that the Samburus seem a lot "smarter" than the Borons....and that's important.
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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings
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10-15-01, 02:55 AM (EST)
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22. "RE: Early alliance?" |
Sambura:One of the previews for Episode 2 looked to me to show Carl in deep conversation with Frank while Linda "stood guard" to make sure no one walked up and surprised them. I would suspect they were talking about an alliance (The question then is will Frank try to go it alone or make the smart move and join up). He's also shown talking to Silas about an alliance, but Silas is trying to play is a little too cleaver and try to straddle 2 alliances. Theresa knows seems to know what Silas is up to so I doubt he will be able to pull it off. I'm pretty sure I remember Les Moonves commenting on changes in Survivor that will be apparent in the first couple of weeks that would be very exciting. There was speculation that this could mean a 3 team post merge arrangement, but it could also be a hint at the first TC double vote tie... If I remember correctly this calls for an on the spot immunity challenge between team members. I would speculate that things could break down to an alliance of: Carl/Frank/Linda/Theresa (older)
vs
Silas/Brandon/Lindsey/Kim (younger) Frank will probably be the target of the younger alliance, and I would expect him to beat whoever he's matched up against, putting Carl and his alliance in the drivers seat.
Boran:
I guess it depends how much "work" Tom does on his farm, is he just "playing farmer" or he working an active productive farm?
The distinction is important to the extent that if Tom is running a working farm, then we shouldn't let his size fool us, he will be plenty strong for any physical challenges. It looks to me like the early alliance would be Lex/Ethan/Tom/Momma Kim. This is really kind of a shame since I would like to see Kelly and Jessie hang around for awhile, but Momma Kim's nick name indicates she hangs around longer than they do. Clarence looks to be dead in the water. It's not out of the realm of possibility that he rehabilitates his image, but I believe Tom just drove home what everyone else was thinking. I get the early impression that Tom is a lot like Rudy from SI ie. says what's on his mind, has a very strong sense of right and wrong, and completely trustworthy if he gives his word. In closing I'm going to take a moment to defend Tom from the charges of racism I saw in other posts above, until he gives actual reason to make these charges. Is Tom a redneck? Without question, but redneck DOES NOT equal racism. Tom's anger at Clarence was fully justified. When Clarence first stole the cherries by taking two instead of one, that could have been just a moment of weakness, surrendering to the temptation of the moment. I believe however, when Clarence suggested to Lex that if ya'll don't need me to help with the water, I'll stay here and take care of Diane, he was already planning on sneaking the tribes food. The only reason he apologized was because he got caught, and had no other choices. His attempt to explain that he thought "if I eat some of the beans, then Diane would feel better" is unbelievably lame.
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Mitrelleum 257 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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10-16-01, 03:07 AM (EST)
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30. "RE: Early alliance?" |
I'm starting to agree that perhaps Tom was justified to give Clarence the lashing that he did. However, I still feel uneasy about the race situation and do feel it was a subconcious. Clarence may have been a bad example for Tom. I also do not agree that Tom should have voted for Clarence unless of course it was a strategic vote planned for future use.
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-16-01, 06:41 AM (EST)
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31. "RE: Early alliance?" |
I'm with Mitrelleum that any racism shown by Big Tom to Clarence is more of the subconscious variety than an actual attempt to talk down to an African-American. I don't know what the demographics are of his rural area, but I've heard elsewhere on these boards that he's got a thick southern accent so while Tom may not actually have a problem himself, the culture of the region he grew up in could have a different way of looking at African-Americans than what most people would. I don't know if what Big Tom did was racially motivated or not, but what I do know was that he was a little over the top and didn't need to be so venomous. He ran the risk of exposing himself to the tribe in a negative way - a far greater way to hit the point to Clarence would be to have each of the other tribemates speak up instead of only a couple.
>I would speculate that things could break down
>to an alliance of:
>
>Carl/Frank/Linda/Theresa (older)
> vs
>
>Silas/Brandon/Lindsey/Kim (younger)
>
>Frank will probably be the target of the younger alliance, and
>I would expect him to beat whoever he's matched up
>against, putting Carl and his alliance in the drivers seat.
Hmm this is an interesting speculation. I hadn't thought about the possibility it would go so evenly down tribal sides. This could very well happen, but I wonder if Frank would be able to beat Silas (let's say) in an one-on-one battle? I also believe that someone like Carl -- who has shown in the first ep. a bonding with some of the younger ones like Kim P. who got awfully chummy with his waistline -- probably wouldn't limit himself to just the old fogies in any alliances because what if they got rid of 3 young ones and then found themselves at the merge with a bunch of younger ones from Boran - the older ones would have a tough time with the early physical ICs trying to keep up.
>but Momma Kim's nick name indicates she hangs around longer
>than they do.
I have seen several references to this on other threads, but where does it say that she got the nickname from S3? Did she have this in the past? What if the producers simply gave her the nickname so the crew would have a little easier time following which Kim the producers are talking about? I agree that right now it's very possible that both will be making the merger with the way things are going right now, but I don't see the nicknames as being of spoiler value.
"What's wrong with her?"
"Oh, it's gonna blow up, dude... in 5 minutes, dude. It's gonna hit the (bleep) ceiling."
"It is?"
"Oh yeah." (maniacal laughter)
Anthony (talking to Adrian) on LC, Oct. 9/01
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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10-16-01, 02:16 PM (EST)
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34. "Lindsay Safe in EP2?" |
It has been speculated on some other boards that this picture shows Silas with some growth on his chin. He seems to be a "baby face", in which case this picture may have been taken after EP2.
Silas (with facial hair?) and Lindsay.If this is the case, here is a possible scenario that I posted on another thread... EP2 is all about the dynamics of forming alliances..."zoom or be zoomed". Alliances based on age and generational differences seemed to develop naturally in in the Samburu camp as Brandon, Kim, Lindsey and Silas started to relate. At the same time, Linda seemed a little disgusted with the "youngsters", while there was no doubt where Frank stood. Carl and Frank also seemed to start relating. Teresa, while part of the older group, is seen in several vidcaps with Lindsay. They are also standing next to one another at the Blood Drinking IC, Teresa with her arm around Lindsey. Frank and Carl are shown apparently forming an alliance and recruiting Silas to be part of it. Lindsay is shown walking by as Frank and Silas are discussing their alliance. She confronts Silas, who responds by telling Lindsey to trust him...and if she does, they will go far together. Linda, the neutral observer, is apparently aware of the alliances forming, and remarks that Silas's playing one side against the other, could get him in trouble. Speculation: I would guess that Linda is a silent part of the older alliance with Carl/Frank and therefore fairly calm, not really feeling threatened, as she makes her observations. The strongest bonds that seem to be forming... Carl and Frank (with Linda a silent partner)
Teresa and Lindsey
Lindsey and Silas
Brandon and Kim Carl and Frank try to recruit Silas, who has apparently also makes promises to Lindsay. Lindsay realizes that she needs to go along with Silas and the older alliance so she doesn't become a target. She recruits her older friend Teresa as well, leaving Brandon and Kim hanging out by themselves, thinking they are part of an alliance with Silas and Lindsey, ready to be "zoomed" by them instead. Frank probably makes a case to get rid of Brandon, after a poor performance in both challenges. Kim and Brandon vote for Frank, everyone else for Brandon...and another member is voted out of the Tribe.  Krautboy
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
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10-16-01, 02:38 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: Lindsay Safe in EP2?" |
I'm not sure I'm buying any of this either, but I'd like to point out that that's a pretty non-hairy armpit that Silas is showing off in the above image. Unless he's pulling a BB2 Will and shaving all his body, it would seem to show that this guy doesn't seem to have much hair.The thing I don't understand about the Carl/Frank thing is why Carl would align himself with the person who is probably the most disliked person in the tribe. Sure, that strategy works if you have 1-2 other people ALREADY in your alliance and you are looking to just firm it up, but to START an alliance with the weakest guy wouldn't seem to be too wise. ...I just to get it, Carl seems to be pretty well liked, I'd think he could do better than Frank. -SB
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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings
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10-16-01, 03:11 PM (EST)
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38. "RE: is Lindsey safe & why align with Frank." |
I don't think we can tell anything from the pic above, it looks to me like the "facial hair" is as much a shadow as anything else. If they don't have a razor, then I think this pic was most likely taken withine he first week, certainly within the first 10 days.Why align with Frank? The same reason you align with Rudy... If you form an alliance with him you can pretty much count on him not knifing you in the back. Carl can try to align with Silas, Lindsey, Kim and Brandon but I think he would be foolish to think he could trust them as far as he can throw them. Frank, strikes me as having an ultra strong sense of right and wrong, patriotism and honor. I don't think he would give someone his word and then betray them on national TV knowing his kids, friends, wife... etc would see it. Not even in a game. I may be off base, but I think Carl knows he can count on Frank voting with him to boot people, and that when it comes down to a jury, he would likely beat Frank 7-0.
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weltek 16936 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-17-01, 10:37 AM (EST)
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44. "Frank/Carl alliance justification" |
I think we can look at this a little more simplistic. Frank knows he's got the mental and physical strength to win, but that alliances are important. Maybe Frank approached Carl and the older women of the tribe first, before any of the younger people were able to approach the older ones. Put yourself in Carl's position. It's day one. The yonger people consist of a flaming homosexual (Carl could be old school on that one and not approve at all) and a girl whining about her period. Immediately I would rather be with all the older people than the seemingly high school clique of youngsters. Carl knows that age & experience are on the older folks side, that they just need the ability to dominate physically. Guess what, the older group there DOES have that, as very evident by Frank's display the first day. I think on S3, players got smart and formed alliances right away, and that Carl/Frank are pretty keen to align. Heck, I even think that Carl probably respects Frank's discipline & knowledge and knows it's qualities like his that will give the team a chance at surviving. And maybe Carl sees that Frank ISN'T liked as much, but is needed, therefore making him a good choice to bring along to the end when it comes down to voting for favorites!
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-18-01, 11:06 AM (EST)
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52. "RE: Episode 1: Character Development, plus predictions...." |
Well, sticking in my two cents for this week:The previews lead me to believe that Boran will win immunity this week, because we've seen so much focus on alliance-building within the Samburu tribe. Early players to get the boot in Survivor have fit one of two profiles, weak player (challenge debit) or outsider (doesn't fit in with tribe).
Sonja: weak player.
BB: outsider.
Debb: outsider.
Kel: outsider.
Diane: weak player.
Thus, it seems to me the two who are most at risk among the Samburu are Frank and Linda, the outsider and perhaps the weakest player. Linda has experience in Africa, though, which may play in her favor. The skills which Frank brings to the mix, on the other hand, have basically served their purpose, so even though he may be a plus in challenges his inability to fit in within his tribe is going to cost him. That's the way I read what I've seen about this week's show.  SMILES ARE FREE.
"If the race of man should be left naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few individuals might linger, but in a year would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-18-01, 11:31 AM (EST)
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54. "RE: Episode 1: Character Development, plus predictions...." |
Good reasoning, dabo... I agree that we've got to focus on who are the outcasts or weak players for this week's boot. Frank is a good bet as the 'outsider' but I've got to disagree somewhat on the choice of Linda as the weak one because of her activities (mountain climbing, ice climbing, running 85 miles from Atlanta to Athens, etc.). To me, Brandon is the better bet as the "weak one" because he's a wimp. He needed help to get the gurney up onto his shoulders for the carrying of goods on the first day and, well... just look at his spindly arms!Linda is a bit of an outcast as well as Frank, and while Frank appeared to be a bigger outcast in the first ep., maybe if she got the boot tonight because she's not fitting in strongly with any alliances then we can attach the label of 'outcast' to her. Frank apparently has an alliance in place with Carl, as speculated, so he may be less of an outcast than what we're thinking -- he's going to have to show a lot more teamwork tonight, though, to change our perceptions.
"What's wrong with her?"
"Oh, it's gonna blow up, dude... in 5 minutes, dude. It's gonna hit the (bleep) ceiling."
"It is?"
"Oh yeah." (maniacal laughter)
Anthony (talking to Adrian) on LC, Oct. 9/01
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-18-01, 01:47 PM (EST)
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56. "RE: Episode 1: Character Development, plus predictions...." |
>I tend to think that the start of any alliances would
>have been Carl and Theresa since they both stayed up
>all night guarding the camp the first night. That's a
>lot of one on one bonding. I also think that
>Lindsey is seemingingly close to Teresa as well. >It's hard to tell. One thing I do remember is that
>it was Lindsey, Silas and Kim starting the fire, and
>who did they call for when they started to get
>it going...Frank...even though he seemed
>to make them upset on the trek in...they called for
>Frank in excitement...why not Brandon if he was in their
>little clicque...just some thoughts... These are good observations, cowboyroo... I was just watching the tape of ep.1 earlier with some coworkers at lunchtime and your comments immediately reminded me of what I had just seen on the screen. I'm not sure if that means they have an alliance in the works, but more to do with the fact they recognize the importance of having someone like Frank around with his background rather than to simply dump him because they don't like him. Keith and Rich were never well-liked at any time but they both made it to the final episodes. I didn't realize, though, that Frank and Teresa had teamed up to watch overnight, so that's a good pick-up.
"What's wrong with her?"
"Oh, it's gonna blow up, dude... in 5 minutes, dude. It's gonna hit the (bleep) ceiling."
"It is?"
"Oh yeah." (maniacal laughter)
Anthony (talking to Adrian) on LC, Oct. 9/01
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