The other thread was getting long, so I'm starting a new one.Here's the link, for reference:
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID44/1276.shtml
Basically, there is a guideline which helps to determine who may be going home and who may be in the bottom 3. It seems that votes go in alternating-week patterns, with people rallying behind thir favorites one week, then taking the next week off when their favorite seems safe.
Here's the rule:
Part 1: In any given week, the bottom three can be predicted by looking at the bottom three from two weeks prior.
Part 2: Two members of the bottom three will be the two people who were in the bottom three two weeks prior (but weren't booted.) Part 2-A: One of those two people will be booted.
Part 3: The other person in the bottom three will be someone who has never been in the bottom three previously. Part 3A: Or someone who was in the bottom 3 previously, but not in the prior two weeks.
This rule can't predict the first two weeks, because it's based on patterns, but since week three, this rule predicted the boots of Jessica, Nadia and Anwar. That's 3 out of 5 boots that have followed this rule.
Here's the specifics of how it's done so far:
WEEK ONE
Lindsay (Booted)
Mikalah
Jessica
----------
WEEK TWO
Mikalah (Booted)
Nadia
Anthony
One right:
Jessica was safe as predicted.
One wrong:
Mikalah should have been safe, but was not.
----------
WEEK THREE
Jessica (Booted)
Anwar
Nadia
Two Right:
Jessica was booted, as predicted
Anthony was safe, as predicted
One Wrong:
Nadia should have been safe, but was not
----------
WEEK FOUR
Nikko (Booted)
Scott
Vonzell
Two wrong:
Anthony and Nadia should have both been in the bottom three... yet both were safe.
One Right:
Anwar was safe, as predicted.
----------
WEEK FIVE
Nadia (Booted)
Bo
Scott
Two Right:
Nadia Booted, as predicted
Vonzell safe, as predicted
Two Wrong:
Scott in the bottom 3, not safe.
Anwar not in the bottom 3.
----------
WEEK SIX
Anwar (Booted)
Scott
Anthony
Three right:
Anwar and Scott were both predicted in the bottom 3 (see Part 2)
Anwar was booted as predicted (see Part 2A)
Anthony was predicted for the bottom 3 as well (see part 3A)
----------
WEEK SEVEN
Constantine (Booted)
Anthony
Vonzell
Two right:
Constantine was eligable for the bottom three under Part 3.
Vonzell was eligable for the bottom 3 under Part 3A.
Three wrong:
Anthony should have been safe under Part 2.
Scott or Bo should have been booted under Part 2A.
----------
WEEK EIGHT
NOTE: At this point I believe they will no loger have a bottom 3 and will only show a bottom 2.
The chart predicts:
Scott and Anthony will be in the bottom two (Part 2), and one of them will be booted (Part 2A).
If there is a bottom 3:
In the bottom 3 will be Carrie (per Part 3) or Bo (per Part 3A). Vonzell is safe (per Part 3A.)
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