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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-24-01, 10:01 PM (EST) "For the non-believers: Why the Colbster is definitely gone!" I haven's spent much time on the spoiler board lately, only because as far as I am concerned (and until Burn-it proves otherwise) this show has been over for a couple weeks already. But, just for the hell of it, let me explain my reasoning for the Colbster definitely getting the boot this week. I am going to highlight the main points cause I just learned how to do that and I think its really cool. Precedent and Pattern First of all, and this is the most important point...it is 100% certain that an Ogakor is the bootee this week....all we have to do is look at the solid patter that has developed. Everytime Ogalliance has gotten a two person advantage over Kucha, they have eliminated one of their own....and always, the person eliminated was left in the dark at the previous backstabbing by Ogakor (Lamber didn't know about Scerri and now the Colbster didn't know about Lamber). There is no reason to believe that this pattern won't continue...even misdirectional editing can NOT hide this obvious and telling pattern. Spoiler evidence supporting Lislis staying: The Jury Pic I think we can all agree that based on the timing of its release, the jury photo is a red herring. Well, in order for a red herring to work, it must be given a chance to deceive and distract us from the obvious...I believe that Burn-it is using the jury pic to distract us from the obvious voting pattern discussed above....therefore the jury photo is supposed to make us think Lislis goes next, but we know from the established pattern that that simply will not happen. If you believe that the jury pic is a red herring (and you most definitely should) then you HAVE to believe that Lislis is safe this week....that way the red herring is given a chance to deceive the public into thinking Lislis is gone. Tina in charge! Let us not forget the one fact that we have proven to be completely true throughout this game: Benedict Tina is the smartest person in this game and is in control of the ogalliance. You can not argue with BT's track record in this game....she has had a hand in the removal of NINE fellow contestants...plus, she has done this without receiving a vote herself...that is simply put, the most remarkable event(s) to occur in this season of Survivor. So, now that we know that BT is in charge of who goes next (as she has been throughout this whole game) we only need to figure out what she must be thinking right about now to know who the next bootee is.... We have heard Coblster talking about how KKK is the ideal final-2 opponent....you can bet your bottom dollar that if Colster realizes that, BT realizes it as well. She has to know that in a final three IC with KKK and Colbster, she MUST win the IC to make it to the final 2! She has to believe that if KKK wins the IC he would rather go up against Colby than Tina (nobody in Ogalliance has bonded as well with Kucha as Tina) and of course if Colby wins, he would pick KKK. So, knowing how smart BT is, do you really think she would let herself get into a situation where she HAS to beat Colby and KKK in an IC!!??? That would be suicide based on what we have seen Colby do in challenges. Now, let's look at how the scenario changes if lislis is in the final 3 w/ Tina and anyone else: Colby wins IC: takes Tina into final 2 Tina wins IC: takes Colby into final 2 Lislis wins IC: takes Colby into final 2 KKK wins IC: takes Tina into Final 2 A much better scenario for Tina than the one with KKK and the Colbster by her side in the final 3. Plus, take a look at Lislis.....her goddamn hair is falling out, she can barely stand up in the morning...do you really think anyone is worried about her winning the final 3 IC which will most likely be some sort of endurance test (48 hours in a bamboo coffin We all know the risk involved in bringing lislis into the final 3, that being she is one IC away from a sure $1,000,000! But, that is a risk BT is going to have to take...because, even though she knows she can beat BOTH colby and KKK in the final 2, a hell of a lot of good that's gonna do her if she can't win that last IC....therefore, she HAS to take the chance of bringing lislis along in order to assure her a spot in the final 2. Both scenarios are risky, but the one with Lislis in the final 3 gives BT her best chance at the final 2, and that is what the game is all about at this point...getting to that last TC and having your case heard in front of the jury. evidence that Colby goes 1. the vegas spoiler "We had to stay at a ranch" We all know what that means, and although you can discredit this spoiler just like any of the rest...it still is speculative evidence that can't be ignored...and must be added to the case against the Colbster. 2. Story arc/ character editing Let's look at the remaining four contestants from this perspective.... Tina: edited as the most brilliant strategist in the game...her story is definitely not over....MB has been setting us up for a big "backstabbing" and you know she is gonna be at the middle of it. KKK: edited as the favorite opponent for teh final 2....that suggests that someone is gonna get their wish and bring him into the final 2...also, he has been edited as the hardest worker remaining around the campsite (always seen fetching wood, cooking, fishing, getting the rice, etc.) Lislis: edited to be Rodg's #####..."I will never write his name" Well guess what, you didn't and now you can leave..the show doesn't need you anymore. Has suffered her way to the final 4...is this really the way MB wants to bring one of the finalists into the final 2?? I don't think so...she is just not a strong enough character for teh final two. Colby: Plenty of screen time last week..plus, the omniscient quote that he must continue to win IC's to be secure...does that mean that the first one he loses, he is gone. Plus, NOT shown as a hard worker...NOT shown as a brilliant strategist (notice tight face shots during Lamber double cross) In summary, as long as the Colbster doesn't win the IC, he is gone, plain and simple...he is too dangerous an IC threat for Tian to allow him into the final 3...BT already has two spots in the final three reserved for herself and her final two opponent, KKK...that only leaves one spot available, and because of what we knowa bout spoilers and Tina's ability to play the game...she will make the smart strategic move and bring weak non-IC-threat Lislis into the final three with her. So, feel free to stick with my PTTE of A/R/C/E/K/T cause I haven's seen anything to convince me differently. Bye bye Cowboy!   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: For the non-believers: Why the... sleeeve 04-24-01 1    RE: For the non-believers: Why the... shakes the clown 04-24-01 2    RE: For the non-believers: Why the... munson 04-24-01 5    RE: For the non-believers: Why the... thecrock 04-25-01 29  RE: For the non-believers: Why the... true 04-24-01 3    RE: For the non-believers: Why the... shakes the clown 04-24-01 4        RE: For the non-believers: Why the... true 04-24-01 6        For the Heathens: Why the CLOWN's ... desert_rhino 04-25-01 26        RE: For the non-believers: Why the... Loree 04-25-01 35            MB trying to even the scorecard? Play2Survive 04-25-01 45  RE: For the non-believers: Why the... Play2Survive 04-24-01 7    here ya go P2S shakes the clown 04-24-01 10        RE: here ya go P2S Play2Survive 04-25-01 11  Call Me Stoopid IslandFever 04-24-01 8    hey stoopid... shakes the clown 04-24-01 9        Stoopid Reply II IslandFever 04-25-01 12            RE: Stoopid Reply II shakes the clown 04-25-01 13                IGNORE POSTS 14-25 FOR SPOILER DISC... Play2Survive 04-25-01 27        RE: hey stoopid... LIZZLOVER 04-25-01 14            hey fanboy... shakes the clown 04-25-01 15                RE: hey fanboy... LIZZLOVER 04-25-01 16                    lizzstalker.. shakes the clown 04-25-01 17                        RE: lizzstalker.. sleeeve 04-25-01 18                    one more thing loser shakes the clown 04-25-01 19                        RE: one more thing loser LIZZLOVER 04-25-01 20                            RE: one more thing loser and other ... insomekneeak 04-25-01 21                                RE: one more thing loser and other ... Silvergirl 04-25-01 23                                    RE: one more thing loser and other ... insomekneeak 04-25-01 33                                        Did not mean to "dis" this thread Silvergirl 04-25-01 40                            RE: one more thing loser VampKira 04-25-01 22                                lizzlover... shut up please PepeLePew13 04-25-01 24                                    OK LIZZLOVER 04-25-01 25                        RE: one more thing loser Play2Survive 04-25-01 28                RE: hey Shakes... George Tirebiter 04-25-01 48  RE: For the non-believers: Why the... nailbone 04-25-01 30    Tina's thoughts, take II bondt007 04-25-01 31        RE: Tina's thoughts, take II Play2Survive 04-25-01 34  RE: For the non-believers: Why the... gemstone 04-25-01 32  I'm a believer! bebekid 04-25-01 36  RE: For the non-believers: Why the... Conspiracy Jim 04-25-01 37    Excellent analysis, CJ flying squirrel 04-25-01 38    RE: For the non-believers: Why the... Doglip 04-25-01 43        RE: For the non-believers: Why the... basiclady 04-25-01 49    reply to CJ shakes the clown 04-25-01 47  You probably won't believe it, but.... nailbone 04-25-01 39    RE: You probably won't believe it, ... shakes the clown 04-25-01 41        RE: You probably won't believe it, ... nailbone 04-25-01 42        RE: You probably won't believe it, ... Conspiracy Jim 04-25-01 44            Sorry CJ, but..... shakes the clown 04-25-01 46    RE: You probably won't believe it, ... nailbone 04-26-01 53  RE: For the believers: Why Keith m... sleeeve 04-25-01 50    you're better when you're drunk Sle... shakes the clown 04-25-01 51        you're better when you're sober, cl... sleeeve 04-25-01 52  HEY SHAKES!!! Conspiracy Jim 04-26-01 54    RE: HEY SHAKES!!! shakes the clown 04-26-01 55    one more thing CJ shakes the clown 04-26-01 56        RE: one more thing CJ Conspiracy Jim 04-26-01 57  I'm a believer with you Shakes DivaByTheSea 04-26-01 58  I'm Riding This One All the Way In! IceCat 04-26-01 59  Definately Colby in my opinion MC_Hampster 04-26-01 60  Bump volmel 04-26-01 61    RE: Bump shakes the clown 04-26-01 62        RE: Bump volmel 04-26-01 63        Not losing AyatollahKhomeini 04-26-01 64        RE: Bump volmel 04-26-01 65            DIE COLBY Elisabeth Rules 04-26-01 66        OMGlick... Love Cruise Spoiler! IceCat 04-26-01 67            RE: OMGlick... Love Cruise Spoiler! shakes the clown 04-26-01 68            Chaos? LIZZLOVER 04-26-01 69                RE: Chaos? Play2Survive 04-26-01 70                    RE: Chaos? LIZZLOVER 04-26-01 71

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sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-24-01, 10:17 PM (EST) 1. "RE: For the non-believers: Why the Colbster is definitely gone!" >I haven's spent much time on >the spoiler board lately, only >because as far as I >am concerned (and until Burn-it >proves otherwise) this show has >been over for a couple >weeks already. Hold on there, shakes... I thought it was over in mid-December... On another note, I think that a logical argument can also be made for Keith to go next... We have seen Tina and Colby comment that they want someone sitting beside them on the jury that they will respect winning the money... Tina made the good guys comment early on, and Colby made the comment last week. That's two out of four, and all that's all that they need... Keith has the most past votes... Vegas spoiler still fits as long as Colby goes right after Keith, and the jury pick will still be a red herring. And if you wanna talk story arc, KKK's is stale... how many times are we gonna see that he is an arrogant S.O.B.??? And Keith still fits the "precident"... it's time for an Ogie to go.   Top

shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-24-01, 10:37 PM (EST) 2. "RE: For the non-believers: Why the Colbster is definitely gone!" >We have seen Tina and Colby >comment that they want someone >sitting beside them on the >jury that they will respect >winning the money... Tina made >the good guys comment early >on, and Colby made the >comment last week. ...yes, but that was for the benefit of last week's misdirectional campaign...we still saw the Colbster come to his senses and stick with the pattern. Also, the Good guy comment was geared towards the removal of Scerri...we haven't seen ANY comments such as that out of Tina's or KKK's mouth since E#9. Keith has the most >past votes... ....that only matters in tie-breaker...BT is too smart to allow this vote to be tied...she will once again USE Lislis and her vote to tip the balance 3-1 in favor of the Colbster...plus, with a Coblster loss in an IC, watch how quickly the vultures decend upon him...they're not gonna let this chance go by to get rid of the biggest physical threat. > >Vegas spoiler still fits as long >as Colby goes right after >Keith, and the jury pick >will still be a red >herring. ...I disagree....I thought that the person who is the last bootee would only have one day at the ranch before the final TC....one day is not a long enough time IMO for the quote "We had to stay at a ranch" > >And if you wanna talk story >arc, KKK's is stale... how >many times are we gonna >see that he is an >arrogant S.O.B.??? ...no, because we have seen a new story angle develop for KKK, as the arrogant asshole that everyone wants to take into teh final two....he is the big prize right now, and the rest of them are gonna fight over him...that is his story and it won't end until the final TC when he either loses as expected, or pulls a huge ironic upset. > >And Keith still fits the "precident"... >it's time for an Ogie >to go. ...no argument there.   Top

munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 04-24-01, 10:52 PM (EST) 5. "RE: For the non-believers: Why the Colbster is definitely gone!" >We have seen Tina and Colby >comment that they want someone >sitting beside them on the >jury that they will respect >winning the money... Tina made >the good guys comment early >on, Except, sleeeve, I think she was referring to herself when she made it and I think she does see Keith as one of the good guys, too. He's the anti-Jerri. and Colby made the >comment last week. That's >two out of four, and >all that's all that they >need... Keith has the most >past votes... but if Colby wanted Keith out, he had his opportunity to do it last week. I know it would have been suicidal but I find it hard to believe that Colby, who cannot stop himself from trying to win any type of challenge or argument because he is so ultra-competitve, would do anything that would jeopardize his shot at winning this late in the game. He knows his best shot is against Keith so Keith goes nowhere if Colby can help it. That statement seemed like a public relations move to improve the image...ya know, sure I'm competitive, but I'm a good sport, too folks! Of course, it's not impossible for Keith to go next. I just don't believe it's very likely. I'm with ya, shakes. C/E/K/T   Top

thecrock 14 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 04-25-01, 10:00 AM (EST) 29. "RE: For the non-believers: Why the Colbster is definitely gone!" "Vegas spoiler still fits as long as Colby goes right after Keith, and the jury pick will still be a red herring." Nope the final three is the final episode (that is until the lockbox is opened) the TC is held after the winner selects their competition. If the Vegas spoiler hold true (and it will) then it's gotta be this episode.   Top

true 9689 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-24-01, 10:38 PM (EST) 3. "RE: For the non-believers: Why the Colbster is definitely gone!" LAST EDITED ON 04-24-01 AT 10:44 PM (EST) > >There is no reason to believe >that this pattern won't continue...even >misdirectional editing can NOT hide >this obvious and telling pattern. > You have a valid point here. > > Spoiler evidence supporting Lislis staying: > The Jury Pic > >If you believe that the jury >pic is a red herring >(and you most definitely should) >then you HAVE to believe >that Lislis is safe this >week....that way the red herring >is given a chance to >deceive the public into thinking >Lislis is gone. > I'm with you here. >Tina in charge! > >Let us not forget the one >fact that we have proven >to be completely true throughout >this game: Benedict Tina >is the smartest person in >this game and is in >control of the ogalliance. >You can not argue with >BT's track record in this >game....she has had a hand >in the removal of >NINE fellow contestants...plus, she has >done this without receiving a >vote herself...that is simply put, >the most remarkable event(s) to >occur in this season of >Survivor. True enough, You've got Tinas strategy down cold. >> : > > evidence that Colby goes > > >1. the vegas spoiler > > >"We had to stay at a >ranch" Didn't I just read your thread cautioning everyone not to believe outcast interviews? > > I usually find myself agreeing with most of what you say. This all seems very reasonable, but almost too obvious. Do you think Colby is too stupid to see any of this coming? Don't you think he will make an attempt to allign with Liz to save them both? If they were smart, (and thats a big if!) they would target Keith this week and hope to survive to final 3 where it is anybodys game. As far as editing characters goes, in S1 I sure didn't see anything along the way that pointed to dull Kelly being in the final 2. Who knows what these idiots will do, it could come down to something as stupid as "pick a number between 1 and 10" edited because that scary rotating clown followed me. oops.   Top

shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-24-01, 10:51 PM (EST) 4. "RE: For the non-believers: Why the Colbster is definitely gone!" >Didn't I just read your thread >cautioning everyone not to believe >outcast interviews? ...yes, but the Vegas spoiler was NOT from an interview, it was a run-in between Bitchell, Nick the Colbster and a few girls...one of the girls called the quote into the radio station, along with sending the pic...granted, that initself takes away some of the believability of the spoiler, given the second hand nature of the source. It's funny cause I KNEW that someone was gonna bring this up..I even thought of re-editing to make note of the non-interview status of this ommision...my bad. This all seems >very reasonable, but almost too >obvious. ...Occams Razor (sp?) If we've learned one thing about this show is that the 9 out of 10 times, the obvious DOES happen.....it is only when we fall for the mis-direction and faulty spoilers that we have been steered away from what has been a VERY predictable season.... Just look at the stats....how many bootees has webby gotten right in a row...and Eliiipsis, and a good percentage of the people on this board as well.....this show IS obvious. Do you think >Colby is too stupid to >see any of this coming? ...without a doubt! just like Lamber and Scerri were too sutpid to see it coming....because obviously BT is a brilliant sweet talker (that is why she has ZERO previous votes despite backstabbing everyone in the game) > Don't you think he >will make an attempt to >allign with Liz to save >them both? ....NO way....Lislis will already be alligned with Bt and KKK to get rid of the Colbster...think about it from Lislis perspective...if she can get into the final three she is ONE IC away from the $1,000,000 so she is definitely going to want to get rid of the biggest IC threat at this point...therefore, given a choice to get rid of KKK or Colby, she will definitely choose to get rid of IC King the Colbster. If they >were smart, (and thats a >big if!) they would >target Keith this week and >hope to survive to final >3 where it is anybodys >game. ...not at all, the smart move is to eliminate the toughest IC threat and give yourself the best chance of winning the crucial fianl three IC. therefore, teh smart move is to dump Colby. > Who knows what these >idiots will do, it could >come down to something as >stupid as "pick a number >between 1 and 10" ...that is why the ONLY part of my PTTE that I am not 100% sure of is the final two....we have NO idea what the jury is thinking right now...they don't have the benefit of seeing the episodes so they might be more in the dark than we are about certain things...or they might know more than we do which could have the same unpredictable effect on the final vote.   Top

true 9689 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-24-01, 11:15 PM (EST) 6. "RE: For the non-believers: Why the Colbster is definitely gone!" >...yes, but the Vegas spoiler was >NOT from an interview, it >was a run-in between Bitchell, >Nick the Colbster and a >few girls...one of the girls >called the quote into the >radio station, along with sending >the pic...granted, that initself takes >away some of the believability >of the spoiler, given the >second hand nature of the >source. > >It's funny cause I KNEW that >someone was gonna bring this >up..I even thought of re-editing >to make note of the >non-interview status of this ommision...my >bad. Sorry, I just couldn't resist. I don't give this spoiler a whole lot of weight though. > > > > >...that is why the ONLY part >of my PTTE that I >am not 100% sure of >is the final two....we have >NO idea what the jury >is thinking right now...they don't >have the benefit of seeing >the episodes so they might >be more in the dark >than we are about certain > things...or they might know >more than we do which >could have the same unpredictable >effect on the final vote. > I agree here- In this weeks TV Guide in the Gervase guest close-up commentary he gives a little insight into how the jury members might be thinking. "If you're on the jury, you don't really care who wins the game because you're no longer in it." "But you have to vote for someone, so you look for reasons to do so. Does someone have kids? A mortgage? Tuition payments? At this point in the game, having financial obligations is an advantage. And players drop hints as to why they need the money all the time. Another thing they drop around this time is their guard. They become more open and honest. People start confessing things because they are so tired of lying, and they don't want all of America to think badly of them." Now Gervase is no brain surgeon, but when I first read this I was a bit surprised by the reasons for voting (or lack of) I didn't give the comments much attention until Rodger brought up Liz's money needs last week. Hummmm I can't argue with any of your reasoning. All valid points.   Top

desert_rhino 10087 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-25-01, 09:45 AM (EST) 26. "For the Heathens: Why the CLOWN's a riot!" LAST EDITED ON 04-25-01 AT 09:49 AM (EST) >...Occams Razor (sp?) This comes from the work of the medieval scholar and monk, William of Ockham, and should therefore be, "Ockham's Razor." The most common spelling in use, however, appears to be "Occam's Razor," as incorrect as it may be... YMMV, caveat emptor, and all those disclaimers... -- JV BTW, nice thread, you sad, pathetic, lonely clown. {grin} Edited to lay off poor L(J?)izzlover, though I still have my doubts... Icarus steps out for a cuppa joe.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-25-01, 04:27 PM (EST) 35. "RE: For the non-believers: Why the Colbster is definitely gone!" I do believe Colby goes this week and Elisabeth goes next. But when it gets down to Tina and Keith I don't think Tina wins. She is betraying alot of people to get to that final. They didn't see it coming. But they have alot of time at the ranch to think about it. And Mike did say that he never really spent time with Keith but he heard good things about him from the other Survivors. Why would he hear good things if everyone on the jury hated Keith and wanted to vote against him? I think Keith could win this.   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-25-01, 05:58 PM (EST) 45. "MB trying to even the scorecard?" Good point Loree. About 3 weeks ago I decided Tina was my winner, but since then I'm wavering. There is a growing sentiment that she might be considered a cut-throat backstabber (which in principal bugs the piss out of me, because this is a game after all). My thought is this: MB has known that Tina and Keith are the final two. We know his proclivity for using creative editing to alter a players image when necessary, only to bring it back again. It would look to most, going into the voting, like a landslide victory. So why not do what he can leading up to the final episode to give Tina some bad press. I come back to the fact that every week someone has to go .... and the point of the game is to last the longest. Inherent to the rules of the game is an occassional knife in the back. If Tina played the game the best, I believe she will be rewarded the mil.   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-24-01, 11:24 PM (EST) 7. "RE: For the non-believers: Why the Colbster is definitely gone!" Shakes, I'm with you every step of the way. It seemed to clear to me immediately after last week's episode that Colby was done. Nothing presented this week has changed this thinking. You brought it all together beautifully. When watching last week, I kept wondering why Colby was made the narrator of E12. He seemed to have about 75% of the individual interviews and provided most of the exposition. You summed up the reasoning for this in the character editing. Colby's story is done. With only one episode left, MB is finally spared the necessity of setting up a Colby IC victory. However Shakes, there's one thing you brought up but did not fully explain, leaving a looming, irritating, nagging question I'd love to have answered: How do you use bold type in a post?   Top

shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-24-01, 11:36 PM (EST) 10. "here ya go P2S" >However Shakes, there's one thing you >brought up but did not >fully explain, leaving a looming, >irritating, nagging question I'd love >to have answered: How >do you use bold type >in a post? You need to visit the manual... http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID6/336.shtml   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-25-01, 00:01 AM (EST) 11. "RE: here ya go P2S" Kewl - thanks Shakes!!!   Top

IslandFever 205 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-24-01, 11:32 PM (EST) 8. "Call Me Stoopid" But I think Elisabeth is next. And I think Tina wins. I woke up this morning to Colby's face on the front page of my local paper. They were stating how he has the best odds to win. Which of course tells us that he doesn't. But if he is being pushed, it would make more sense for him to go to the final three. Elisabeth is way too big of a jury threat due to the disgruntled Ogies. Especially Jerri.   Top

shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-24-01, 11:35 PM (EST) 9. "hey stoopid..." . Elisabeth >is way too big of >a jury threat due to >the disgruntled Ogies. ...please take the time to reread my original post in my thread...I explained quite clearly why Lislis will be allowed into the final 3. >   Top

IslandFever 205 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-25-01, 01:10 AM (EST) 12. "Stoopid Reply II" OK, I reread your post Shakes, but I'm still not convinced. How do we know Colby's IC streak comes to an end? I agree that the final challenge will most likely test endurance and not strength per se. And we remember Tina and Keith's track record on this type of challenge. I can't believe they will risk alienating another Ogie jury member by voting off Colby. I do think once Colby is voted off he will tell Jerri that it was Keith's idea to vote her off. Your reasoning makes sense but the IC always throws in an element of chance. Kelly last time and Colby this time. And the 3 PTTE left outnumber you 2-1. And by the way, where is the EZ board?   Top

shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-25-01, 01:31 AM (EST) 13. "RE: Stoopid Reply II" >How do we know Colby's >IC streak comes to an >end? ....we don't know for sure, but based on the Vegas spoiler, the storyline editing, and the face time in last episode, I'd bet the house that it does. And we remember >Tina and Keith's track record >on this type of challenge. >I can't believe they will >risk alienating another Ogie jury >member by voting off Colby. ...why does it matter in a Tina vs Keith final two...they're gonna have to vote for someone. Your reasoning makes sense >but the IC always throws >in an element of chance. ...you're right, but just like we were able to use the above elements I mentioned to figure out that Nick was definitely going to win the IC in E#9, we can use the same tools to figure out that the Colbster's streak comes to an end this week. And the 3 >PTTE left outnumber you 2-1. ....I've always felt more comfortable when I am in the minority...and being a confident person, you could tell me that I was outnumbered 100-1 and it wouldn't sway my opinion. Besides, you'll see that after this episode, I'll be the only one alive in the PTTE.   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-25-01, 09:54 AM (EST) 27. "IGNORE POSTS 14-25 FOR SPOILER DISCUSSION ONLY" Hi. For anyone that missed the fireworks last night (I went to bed before they began and woke up to them) .... this worthwhile thread was interrupted by a ridiculous argument which had nothing to do with Colby and everything to do with wounded pride. But.... This is a good discussion .....please feel to pick up where we left off by ignorning posts 14-25 and anything added to those threads.   Top

LIZZLOVER 235 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-25-01, 01:43 AM (EST) 14. "RE: hey stoopid..." LAST EDITED ON 04-25-01 AT 02:25 AM (EST) LAST EDITED ON 04-25-01 AT 02:00 AM (EST) HEY STOOPID, Since you ADMITTED to being an infilTRAITOR of our beloved board, I vowed never to respond to one of your "stoopid" posts, but since you are actually on the spoiler board, I felt you were fair game. Isn't what you wrote just SPECULATION from a lonely clown sitting at home in Chicago? Where is the evidence? Do you have a source? Do you have a link? I didn't think so, otherwise you would have shared with all of us. We KNOW you aren't JESUS, so what is it?? Surely you have something to back your ASSUMPTIONS up or you wouldn't have posted it on the spoiler board (because we all know how you hate it when people do that)! Surely you're not basing your beliefs on simple patterns at this point in the game. Have you ever heard of somthing called "Chaos"?? If not, let me refresh you. It means "the fact that complex and unpredictable results can and wlll occur in systems that are sensitive to their initial conditions". So, unless you have something to back up your statement..perhaps you should call it "Why I Think Colby Will Be Gone This Week". Liz Just Is Edit: We can ALL pretty much guess that the Colbster is gone this week if we put faith in the spoilers (jesus,kangaroodan) and just a LITTLE bit of common sense. I would have expected something a little more out of the Clown! Tell us something we haven't known for A LONG TIME basher boy!!   Top

shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-25-01, 02:19 AM (EST) 15. "hey fanboy..." >Since you ADMITTED to being an >infilTRAITOR of our beloved board, >I vowed never to respond >to one of your "stoopid" >posts, but since you are >actually on the spoiler board, >I felt you were fair >game. ....do you have a point here?? So, you "Vowed" never to respond to me again....and yet, here we are. > >Isn't what you wrote just SPECULATION >from a lonely clown sitting >at home in Chicago? Where >is the evidence? Do you >have a source? Do you >have a link Surely you have something >to back your ASSUMPTIONS up >or you wouldn't have posted >it on the spoiler board >(because we all know how >you hate it when people >do that)! are you really this fucking retarded??? If your;e gonna try and bait me into a fight, at least make sense while doing it. Isn't it bad enough I whipped your ass on that pathetic fanboy thread you posted on the basher board, now you want to look like an idiot in this place as well? If you are so stupid that you can't tell the difference between posting "Colby gets booted" and posting "Colby gets booted and here's a detailed explanation why" then I'm sure as hell not gonna waste my time explaining it to you. Unless your argument is that informed speculation is not welcome on this board...that would make you even more "special" than in scenario #1. Did you even read my post??? Or what about the many favorable responses it received as well as the continuing discussion it has evoked??? Go see the basher's board if you want to see the theory running around the board as to why you've started this pathetic anti-shakes campaign....a lot of people on this board have this crazy notion that fanboy might be a little jealous of a certain media whore....with baseless and unwarrented attacks such as this, its hard to argue with the theory. How many times do I gotta tell you...just leave an address and I'll gladly send you the glossy 8x10 autographed (stamped or course) photo.   Top

LIZZLOVER 235 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-25-01, 02:42 AM (EST) 16. "RE: hey fanboy..." LAST EDITED ON 04-25-01 AT 02:45 AM (EST) I bring up valid points that you seem to edit out every time Media Whore!! You seem to be very much like MB himself in your editing. You whipped no such ass (except in your own twisted mind). There were as many people that agreed with me as you. Where was the SPOILER value in that post? It was speculation, pure and simple. It was your belief, made up in your own twisted mind. You don't anwser questions, you simply twist them back at me. I asked questions. You responded to NONE of them. You have flamed people that had better points than yours. I just asked for a validtion of your ASSUMPTION. You turned it into a "I"m better than you are" thread. I ASK again, like anyone else on the SPOILER board would, where is the PROOF?? Should I post links of some of your comments to make my point or what? Liz Just Is   Top

shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-25-01, 02:58 AM (EST) 17. "lizzstalker.." >I bring up valid points that >you seem to edit out >every time Media Whore!! ...what "valid" points were those.....the one where you said I wan't Jesus...or the one where you explained "Chaos" theory? Or maybe it was the one where you called me a sad, lonely clown <gets up to make sure blinds are closed> You whipped no >such ass (except in your >own twisted mind). There were >as many people that agreed >with me as you. ..really, name one? >Where was the SPOILER value in >that post? It was speculation, >pure and simple. ...do you even realize how stupid you sound? Take a look around the board....now run off and flame everyone who has posted informed and well thought out speculation....are you really that much of a moron that you don't even know what this board is about....or are you that blinded by jealousy that you just want an excuse to make a feeble attempt at flaming me. It >was your belief, made up >in our own twisted mind. >You don't anwser questions, you >simply twist them back at >me. ...why do you keep throwing around the term "twisted mind" lije its a bad thing? I asked questions. You >responded to NONE of them. ...I responded to everything you said..you're just too fucking stupid to realize it. >You have flamed people that >had better points than yours. ....name one time, that's all I ask for, one time and I'll make it easy on you....I challenge you to name ONE time that I flamed anyone on this board who had a valid point. Ya know, weren't you here the last time some idiot tried to make a stand against me regarding the flaming.....it didn't end well for him either. >I just asked for a >validtion of your ASSUMPTION. ....you are retarded....what part of my origianl post didn't you understand....what the hell do you think this board is about.... a parade of Unclecameramen? >You turned it into a >"I"m better than you are" >thread. ...no, that's your jealousy talking again. My favorite part of the basher thread where I kicked your ass Kucha style, was how you kept refering to how you could care less about me being famous and a celebrity and all that crap...well, the funny part was that I NEVER brought any of that shit up in any of my posts...that was all YOU...which means that it must've been on your mind when you were posting...just get over it already. Should I post >links of some of your >comments to make my point >or what? ...yes, I insist! I've had enough of your baseless and nonsensical allegations...it's time you put up or shut up. I produced a link in the basher thread to successfully make an ass out of you regarding the Bitchell visit to Tenn, here is your golden opportunity to return the favor. >Liz Just Is ...being stalked by Corky from "Life Goes On"   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-25-01, 03:09 AM (EST) 18. "RE: lizzstalker.." >now run >off and flame everyone who >has posted informed and well >thought out speculation.... No, please don't!!!... my ass will be so charred that I won't be able to sit for weeks! Oh wait, you said "well thought out"... phew... I'm safe... Advice to Lizz: You picked the WRONG post to flame... shakes makes valid points while tying them into real spoilers (el rancho pic, the story arc, the vegas spoiler, the tribal structure, etc.)... that is exactly what the spoiler board is for!... if you don't agree with his analysis (and I don't... see above), then say so, explain why, and allow others to join in the conversation... we will ALL get much farther if we work together to spoil the show... perhaps shakes was a little arrogant in his title of this thread... he could have called it "speculation about why Colby is next"... but it's no worse than many other thread names... and what is important is that he gave it a title to describe its content... exactly the way that threads should be named.   Top

shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-25-01, 03:10 AM (EST) 19. "one more thing loser" ...BTW, how funny is it that you get satisfaction out of giving my posts a low rating....hooray for small victories! Do you think I care about that shit?? And more importantly, do you really think people are gonna avoid one of my threads because some two year old gave it a 1. To show how truly stupid that is, I'm not gonna bother trying to boost the rating...I could care less and until a week ago, I didn't even know what that number stood for....and I've never rated one of my own posts or someone elses and yet, all my posts have 10's next to them...I guess it is safe to say the SB community has a different opinion than yours. All you're doing is making yourself look bad...but you're doing it well.   Top

LIZZLOVER 235 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-25-01, 03:37 AM (EST) 20. "RE: one more thing loser" what the ##### are talking about, and I've never "rated" a post of mine, so get off it. I WILL repsond to your post tomorrow with ANSWERS (which you don't do SPINELESS or Mitchell, whoever u are) Hey, I adimit I don't like you. You came here as an imposter to eventually promote your worthless show. I am honest, but I NEVER started an anti FUCKS THE FREAK thread. If I did, post it you ##### liar. I hate you because of your alterior motive. You blew it with me at that point. And I'm just a piece of ##### in our mind, so what's it to you? Post a thread where I said I was envious or jealous of you. I am not your friend in California who thinks you are a piece of ##### as well.. I'm just a Survivor fan who thinks you are piece of ##### (because of your motive). You are the one who admitted that! Liz Just Is   Top

insomekneeak 2 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 04-25-01, 04:19 AM (EST) 21. "RE: one more thing loser and other pointless tirades" LIz n ShAkes.... And who exactly cares? Shakes the anti-christ? (shooing small pets and children away from demon clown) or shakes the deceiving media whore? (come on, you are hooked on survivor, you have to like the train wreck effect of a media whore) Shakes spun up an entertaining hypothesis... and we all got to follow it... which was fun. Then the virtual peeing on each other in public begins and ya gotta ask.......and exactly who cares? Gotta wonder how serious impinging someone's character over Survivor is gonna cripple them for life. And how many posts do I have to wade through before it returns to something relevant. Insomekneeak Sleep is for sissys and I used up my first post on this.(growlin) ps.. Shakes.. Just figuring out the rating system? Thats a spooky little confession when you think that your whole premise is based on your deductive reasoning   Top

Silvergirl 41 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 04-25-01, 05:01 AM (EST) 23. "RE: one more thing loser and other pointless tirades" Hi, just wanted to welcome you to the board Insomekneeak. Other threads don't have as many "pointless tirades", so you will probably be happier reading another thread. I know I will be. I don't like to take sides in a feud, but I know that Shakes does write good episode summaries. I can forgive him for being a contestant on "Love Cruise". And you are right = who really cares? I can't sleep either, so this board gives me something to read late at night. From one milk spokesperson to another.   Top

insomekneeak 2 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 04-25-01, 11:25 AM (EST) 33. "RE: one more thing loser and other pointless tirades" Thanks for the welcome. "Regarding so you will probably be happier reading another thread. I know I will be." This started out as an excellent thread with good debate.   Top

Silvergirl 41 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 04-25-01, 05:05 PM (EST) 40. "Did not mean to "dis" this thread" Sorry, Insomekneeak, I did not mean that the whole thread was a waste of time, apparently it has stopped being about the Clown/Lizfan feud by now. My thoughts are that Colby will not win IC this week and since he is the strongest contender against Tina, he will be booted off next. My guess for IC winner is Liz, because she is slated to be booted off without it.   Top

VampKira 4433 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 04-25-01, 04:21 AM (EST) 22. "RE: one more thing loser" LAST EDITED ON 04-25-01 AT 04:43 AM (EST) LAST EDITED ON 04-25-01 AT 04:22 AM (EST) Lizzlover.. I want to be diplomatic here.. But I find it diffucult. it does seem to me that you have a problem with Shakes status on this board.. We have all come to know and love the Clown, and respect his intelligence and anaylsis.. He has not flamed unless necessary.. and if you have been a TRUE part of OUR community..RE:>>>>Since you ADMITTED to being an infilTRAITOR of our beloved board <<<<( and by OUR I mean us ALL) You would know this, and you would also know that AK would step in if he felt the need to soften Shakes blows.... However, Do not claim to speak for us all. You cannot align youself with the majority of this board if you blatently attack someone with such filth!! Just ask AllHeil what happens when undeserved hatred happens... Until now, I thought you were a welcome addition to this board, .. Now.. I'm not so sure.... EDIT: War! What is it good for? Absolutely Nothin!!! Webby lock this??? EDIT 2: Ok.. I don't want to see this locked.. Shakes put alot of effort into this post, as did some others.. I just would like the flaming to end here, and continue with the spoiling... Sound good? w.l.s.f.c. One fish. Two fish. Lum fish. Hue fish.(and a shout out to Sat!) "I'm gonna take a bath so the whole tent doesn't smell like ass at the end of the night" - The late, and often absent, Nick Brown   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-25-01, 06:48 AM (EST) 24. "lizzlover... shut up please" LAST EDITED ON 04-25-01 AT 07:02 AM (EST) lizzlover, you picked the WRONG thread to do a little clown bashing, and now I cannot respect anything you say from this point on because you clearly need a rabies shot. Like him or hate him... Shakes did make an excellent analysis of why Colby goes this week and I'm now leaning more toward Colby going instead of Keith this week. I had been arguing elsewhere that I thought that Keith would go and Colby would finish 2nd, but the reasoning with Colby's 75% narrative in the last show and other points brought up makes it more plausible that Colby's IC run finally comes to an end. You don't have to agree with his points or other people's points, but to spew out mouth-foaming crap intended to attack someone's character after a well-written, well-analyzed thread has been started only serves to expose your small-mindedness. I'm not supporting anyone in particular... I just take offense in turning a SPOILER/SPECULATION board into a WWF trash-talking board when someone starts a very good thread. So please... zip it, unless you've got a well-thought out explanation on why Colby stays (like a couple others did in reasoning why Keith or Liz would go instead, at which point shakes tried putting down a rebuttal. Maybe he's being a little direct... but that's shakes) Edited to add: I never lurk in the Bashers or Fanatics boards so I'm not about to wade over there to see what people have been battling over... but I just stick to what I see here, and all I see is someone trying to pick a fight after a good thread has been started. That leaves a very bad impression on this particular lurker. "I tell ya... something stinks here" Edited to add... "and it's not me!"   Top

LIZZLOVER 235 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-25-01, 09:20 AM (EST) 25. "OK" I'm sorry that I attacked Shakes. Shakes, for what it's worth..I apologize to you, and everyone that had to read my BS last night. I got out of control and I will try to make sure it never happens again. I had no right to bash your post, because it actually was well thought out. I just had a problem with the "you thought it would be fun to infiltrate a board" quote that you used last week. It's not right to drag EVERYONE that reads this board into it, and I'm sorry for showing my ass/stupidity in a public forum. Liz Just Is   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-25-01, 09:58 AM (EST) 28. "RE: one more thing loser" I pretty much leave the flaming to you and others, but twice in all my time here have I felt the need to flame: one was skierdude, who I suspect holds the lead in flames, and the other was guess who..... we need not take this exchange to heart.   Top

George Tirebiter 2982 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 04-25-01, 08:15 PM (EST) 48. "RE: hey Shakes..." So your trip to the OT was just a dalliance? Gotta say, we missed you there today! Just when some pathetic loozer took over your. . . um BA's. . . no, Typoman's milk thread and held it hostage, I found myself wishing my favorite evil flamer would come to the rescue. It was refreshing to come here and observe your fine work firsthand, but would you mind spreading it around a little? And just to keep from making this thread all dirty with my ramblings, I will add that I like your original handiwork here; I've had good luck playing my hunches (after reading through everyone's hard work here. . .), and this gives me the biggest one for the week. (Hunch, that is. Black gold, Texas tea. No--that's another ramble. . .) I really don't see Colby escaping again, this week. Time to head back to the loving arms of his. . . gang. (?) your punch-drunk admirer from the OT, GT   Top

nailbone 27263 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-25-01, 10:27 AM (EST) 30. "RE: For the non-believers: Why the Colbster is definitely gone!" "1. the vegas spoiler "We had to stay at a ranch" We all know what that means, and although you can discredit this spoiler just like any of the rest...it still is speculative evidence that can't be ignored...and must be added to the case against the Colbster. " But as I understand it, ALL contestants spent time at the ranch to be 'de-briefed', etc. So this doesn't do much to confirm that Colby goes.....(grasping at straws cuz I have Colby making at least the final 3). The road goes on forever and the party never ends - Robert Earl Keen   Top

bondt007 3413 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-25-01, 10:59 AM (EST) 31. "Tina's thoughts, take II" What a fun little war on this thread! I'll bet if SB took all of these posts and wrote a book... big bucks! Anyway, Colby (and to a much lesser degree, depending on the IC, Keith) should go next. There isn't much to add here, you all have done all of the leg work to confirm my thoughts. However, Shakes has brought up the risks of NOT booting Liz. I think it's about the most dangerous thing Tina could do to herself. In fact, it is so risky, you might almost think that Tina doesn't much care about the $1M for herself, rather, she what's to make sure whoever get's it is someone she would vote for herself. What if the IC next week is some memory game, or low-grade physical challenge. Liz has not been skunked during the RC's and IC's... she has almost won several of them. Tina has to know this. She gives that "I'm gonna faint" look, and heck, maybe she is, but check her out when she is playing the games. Second wind! Tina just might wait and see who wins the IC (hey, maybe it's her... talk about complete control) and then think "who, besides myself, would I WANT to win, if not me? Instead of my previous thought "who would I look best against, so that I WILL win".   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-25-01, 12:25 PM (EST) 34. "RE: Tina's thoughts, take II" Considering how long it took Tina to give up the IC when Keith was in trouble, I doubt that she would think this way. She has to know at this point that she is in an excellent position to take the money. She wants to win......and the best way to do this is to forfit Colby this week. As Shakes explains, this is smarter than Liz. While most agree that no one beats Liz in Final 2, getting rid of her now narrows Tina's chances of getting there to 1 in 3 (and less when you consider that third is based on her chances at beating both Colby and Keith in a final two). No, she's already planning her words to the jury (which I'm planning out in my head as well - hehe) - and no matter who she's against she will explain that she came to play the game and did what she had to do to win. She needs to get there though, and therefore Liz must stay.   Top

gemstone 70 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 04-25-01, 11:04 AM (EST) 32. "RE: For the non-believers: Why the Colbster is definitely gone!" >Everytime Ogalliance has gotten a two person advantage over Kucha, they have eliminated one of their own....and always, the person eliminated was left in the dark at the previous backstabbing by Ogakor (Lamber didn't know about Scerri and now the Colbster didn't know about Lamber).< Can I point out another part of the pattern is that another Ogakor member is also in the dark about the boot of a fellow Ogakor member. Amber was in the dark for Jerri and Colby was in the dark for Amber (apparently anyways). So does this mean Keith is in the dark about the Colby boot if you believe Tina is the mastermind or Tina in the dark if Keith is the mastermind? It can be done easily although I think it would be easier for Tina to convince Liz than Keith. They do not need 3 votes to boot Colby. Liz and Tina\Keith vote Colby. Keith\Tina and Colby follow the "batting order" and vote Liz. Colby loses in the revote.   Top

bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 04-25-01, 04:28 PM (EST) 36. "I'm a believer!" Shakes, you are the best! And I agree with your PTTE! A few points: You say Lis would take Colby (or even Keith) over Tina on the off chance she were to win final IC. I think it could be possible that Lis would take Tina. I think Lis is enough of a sportsman to realize that Tina has played the game very well (if not the best) and that Tina deserves a higher place than C or K. If the unthinkable were to happen, and Colby were to win another IC, I think Tina will boot Keith. For the reasons you stated, she cannot afford to have both of them in the final IC. Sure she wants to get rid of Colby, but if she has to, she will take Keith out to ensure final 2.   Top

Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 04-25-01, 04:31 PM (EST) 37. "RE: For the non-believers: Why the Colbster is definitely gone!" Shakes, Shakes (my head is now going back in forth to indicate disagreeance), look, not that I actually don't think that Colby goes this week but to claim that it is 100% definite unless he wins immunity is just wrong. The only person who is essentially 100% safe this week is Tina. As long as she sticks with Keith, and he sticks with her (we have seen nothing pointing at them breaking up) then the worst that could happen to her is a tie versus someone with more previous votes. So she is safe. Keith is in actually the worst spot this week, barring immunity. 1. He has the most previous votes against him. 2. He has gotten on two of the three remaining Survivor's nerves. I will agree that his saving grace is that all three of the other remaining four would love to be against him in the final 2 council though this is probably more of an issue for Tina and Colby. you stated the following... <<First of all, and this is the most important point...it is 100% certain that an Ogakor is the bootee this week....all we have to do is look at the solid patter that has developed. Everytime Ogalliance has gotten a two person advantage over Kucha, they have eliminated one of their own....and always, the person eliminated was left in the dark at the previous backstabbing by Ogakor (Lamber didn't know about Scerri and now the Colbster didn't know about Lamber). There is no reason to believe that this pattern won't continue...even misdirectional editing can NOT hide this obvious and telling pattern. ---------------------------------------------------- I agree with this assessment unless one thing happens... ***Colby wins immunity again** but wait, he has won the last 3, there's no way he'll win again... Didn't we say that last week? look if he wins immunity then he would not vote out Keith as he would want to be against him in the final 2, correct? He would also not vote off Tina for the reasons listed above (no way for her to go). So, if Colby wins immunity then an Ogakor WILL NOT GO!!! NEXT you state... >>I think we can all agree that based on the timing of its release, the jury photo is a red herring. Well, in order for a red herring to work, it must be given a chance to deceive and distract us from the obvious...I believe that Burn-it is using the jury pic to distract us from the obvious voting pattern discussed above....therefore the jury photo is supposed to make us think Lislis goes next, but we know from the established pattern that that simply will not happen. If you believe that the jury pic is a red herring (and you most definitely should) then you HAVE to believe that Lislis is safe this week....that way the red herring is given a chance to deceive the public into thinking Lislis is gone. ------------------------------------------------------ Again, I believe that the picture is a red herring but you state that due to the timing it must be. Ummmm, isn't the whole Jesus thing coming out at the same time? Also the Eliipsis board prediction came out at the same time (final 4 predictions that is). Up until now both sources gave us their weekly and all of a sudden they provide the final 2 shows in order. If the jury picture is a red herring for these reasons then can't both the Jesus and Brain Trust also be Red Herrings? And in both cases, didn't they pick Colby to go this week??? Then you said... >>So, now that we know that BT is in charge of who goes next (as she has been throughout this whole game) we only need to figure out what she must be thinking right about now to know who the next bootee is.... --------------------------------------------- I agree that up to this point she has had most of the control but certain weeks the control could have shifted to another person. An example is two weeks ago. Amber could have swapped over and joined up with Kucha to vote of Keith. Then last week they could have voted off Tina. Tina could have lost control that week but probably lied to Lamber keeping her in line. Now Colby and Liz have been around long enough to see what Tina is doing first hand and on more than one occasion. Wouldn't you agree that if Colby does not win immunity then he has much to fear? How could you not, especially since you wrote this thread based on COLBY DEFINITELY GOES. Now if Colby is at all worried and, he nor Keith win immunity then only two scenerios could play out. 1. If Tina won immunity then Colby might be stupid enough o believe that Tina and Keith won't backstab him. With all that he has said to the camera, do you believe that he wouldn't be worried at all? If Tina won immunity and I was Colby then I would be forced into a position where I would try to allign with Liz (as she and Roger tried to allign with him last week) and vote off Keith. It would be the only safe thing to do. 2. If Liz won immunity then same scenerio but even worse. As you would then be forced into voting off Keith as voting for Tina makes no difference due to the tie breaker rule. You would again try to get Liz to vote off Keith. Now Liz seems like the type of person who isn't strategizing in the way the others are. What I mean by that is that she is just trying to stay around while the others are thinking of who they want in the final 2 with them. It is possible that she might change this week but possibly not. Some have said that she would definitely vote off Colby as he is the biggest physical threat. Actually Keith should have won the past two immunty challenges. Everyone knows this including Liz. She has every reason to vote off Keith as she does Colby and since she seems a ligitimately nice person she may rather stick out the next week with Colby than with Keith. So, what I am getting at here is that we can not predict for sure if Liz would want to vote for Keith or for Colby. If Colby realized the possible backstab by T and K he may approach Liz and make a deal. "You and me to the end baby". Ditch Keith this week and then Tina next (at least Liz might believe that). Colby would be in the best position if Keith goes this week. 1. Colby wins final immunity he likely picks Tina. 2. Tina wins she likely picks Colby. 3. For Keith to go, Liz and Colby would have to form an alliance this week. If so and then Liz won the final immunity (sure that would happen) then she would likely stick to her alliance and take Colby to the finals. Colby should realize all of this this week and play accordingly. You also said the following... >>In summary, as long as the Colbster doesn't win the IC, he is gone, plain and simple...he is too dangerous an IC threat for Tian to allow him into the final 3...BT already has two spots in the final three reserved for herself and her final two opponent, KKK...that only leaves one spot available, and because of what we know about spoilers and Tina's ability to play the game...she will make the smart strategic move and bring weak non-IC-threat Lislis into the final three with her. -------------------------------------------------------- Again this is not totally true. If Colby does not win IC AND KEITH does not win IC then Colby would have to realize that he is in trouble. He approaches Liz who would also be worried. They have both seen Tina's handywork first hand and as such would likely allign and vote off Keith. It comes down to the following... - Colby wins immunity, Colby has the power, votes off Liz. - Liz win immunity, Liz has the power, Colby must allign with Liz who is trustworthy, they likely vote off Keith. - Tina wins immunty, Liz has the power, Colby must allign with Liz and Liz would have to be worried, they vote off Keith. - Keith wins immunty, straight out... COLBY IS SCREWED!!! Conspiracy Jim "Ya, sure we went to the moon"?!!!   Top

flying squirrel 290 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-25-01, 04:46 PM (EST) 38. "Excellent analysis, CJ" I completely agree with your conclusions. The only way Colby is booted this week is if Keith wins immunity. I still see Lis going this week, but I wish I'd read this argument before I voted. BTW, I don't think Ellipsiiis released final four picks, just Jesus and Billy Bob.   Top

Doglip 5 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 04-25-01, 05:33 PM (EST) 43. "RE: For the non-believers: Why the Colbster is definitely gone!" >It comes down to the following... >- Colby wins immunity, Colby has the power, votes off Liz. >- Liz win immunity, Liz has the power, Colby must allign with >Liz who is trustworthy, they likely vote off Keith. >- Tina wins immunty, Liz has the power, Colby must allign with >Liz and Liz would have to be worried, they vote off Keith. >- Keith wins immunty, straight out... COLBY IS SCREWED!!! Conspiracy Jim... You state that if Liz wins immunity Colby will Align with Liz to vote off Keith....I dont think this is so... Liz will not vote against BT/KKK who have brought her this far....Liz will vote against Colby...After all...she will be in the final three...and wont want an IC threat like Colby around. As far as the "you and me till the end baby" I dont think even Liz is that stupid. She knows she needs to win Final IC to get to F2. Doglip   Top

basiclady 6 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 04-25-01, 08:21 PM (EST) 49. "RE: For the non-believers: Why the Colbster is definitely gone!" i'm leaning towards a colby/liz alliance and keith or tina booted. isn't one of the teasers-betrayal? tina has protected lis and saved her last week, so a betrayal by lis and she & colby vote together. just a thought-you all are waaaay smarter than me and much more eloquent.   Top

shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-25-01, 08:13 PM (EST) 47. "reply to CJ" >look, not that I actually don't >think that Colby goes this >week but to claim that >it is 100% definite unless >he wins immunity is just >wrong. ....I agree...just going for the big headline, but I also wanted to stress the fact that I believe that he CAN'T win the IC this week...and therefore, I am 100% sure he is gone...but, I'm not dumb enough to believe taht I can't be wrong. >Keith is in actually the worst >spot this week, barring immunity. ...this is where we disagree. > > >1. He has the most >previous votes against him. ...that has no bearing in a 3-1 vote, which is what I anticipate. >2. He has gotten on >two of the three remaining >Survivor's nerves. ...all the more reason to want to bring him into the final three. > >I agree with this assessment unless >one thing happens... > >***Colby wins immunity again** > >but wait, he has won the >last 3, there's no way >he'll win again... > >Didn't we say that last week? ...I never said that last week...but, I'm willing to say it this week...based on the evidence I site in my original post (editing, storyline, face time in E#12, jury photo red herring, and Vegas spolier), I am arguing that Colby CAN'T > >Again, I believe that the picture >is a red herring but >you state that due to >the timing it must be. > Ummmm, isn't the whole >Jesus thing coming out at >the same time? Also >the Eliipsis board prediction came >out at the same time >(final 4 predictions that is). > Up until now both >sources gave us their weekly >and all of a sudden >they provide the final 2 >shows in order. If >the jury picture is a >red herring for these reasons >then can't both the Jesus >and Brain Trust also be >Red Herrings? And in >both cases, didn't they pick >Colby to go this week??? ...I don't believe for a minute that Jesus or the Brain Trust are red herrings....and I don't belive that Jesus has an inside source.....IMO, the brain trust and Jesus are just spoiler/speculators just like us. The jury pic, on the other hand, IS a red herring...and that is as good as evidence as we can get that Lislis is safe this week. > >I agree that up to this >point she has had most >of the control but certain >weeks the control could have >shifted to another person. >An example is two weeks >ago. Amber could have >swapped over and joined up >with Kucha to vote of >Keith. Then last week >they could have voted off >Tina. ...how does this in anyway discredit my assertion that BT is in charge? In the immortal words of the soon to be departed Cowboy, "If if's and but's were candy and nuts, we'd all have a merry Christmas." Tina could have >lost control that week but >probably lied to Lamber keeping >her in line. ....thank you for reasserting my point that BT is clearly in charge of this game...she recognized the risk, and eliminated it by lying to Lamber and keeping her close to the vest. > >1. If Tina won immunity >then Colby might be stupid >enough o believe that Tina >and Keith won't backstab him. ....yes he will, jut like Lamber and Scerri before him. > If Tina won immunity >and I was Colby then >I would be forced into >a position where I would >try to allign with Liz >(as she and Roger tried >to allign with him last >week) and vote off Keith. ...big problem...Lislis will already be alligned with KKK and BT to get rid of IC threat Colby.....why would she allign with Colby given that choice...she knows she HAS to win final 3 IC in order to go to the final 2, so of course she is gonna get rid of the biggest threat left in the game. >2. If Liz won immunity >then same scenerio but even >worse. As you would >then be forced into voting >off Keith as voting for >Tina makes no difference due >to the tie breaker rule. > You would again try >to get Liz to vote >off Keith. ...see above, she'll already be alligned with BT and KKK to get rid of Colby. Now Liz >seems like the type of >person who isn't strategizing in >the way the others are. ....Alicia seems to think otherwise. Actually Keith should >have won the past two >immunty challenges. Everyone knows >this including Liz. ...I doubt it...all they know is that KKK has a propensity for screwing up IC's and if you remember correctly, he had a lot of trouble with the rope maze...let's not forget Colby's RC record as well. She >has every reason to vote >off Keith as she does >Colby and since she seems >a ligitimately nice person she >may rather stick out the >next week with Colby than >with Keith. ....now you're begging. > >So, what I am getting at >here is that we can >not predict for sure if >Liz would want to vote >for Keith or for Colby. ....it has nothing to do with Lislis and everything to do with Tina...that is the point youi are missing. Tina needs to go into that final three with KKK (final 2 opponent) and Lislis(weak at IC)....also, who does Lislis listen to the most of the remaining players....Tina....Tinal will USE Lislis just like she has done in the past...besides, she has already shown Lislis that she can be trusteed to keep her word. > If Colby realized the >possible backstab by T and >K he may approach Liz >and make a deal. >"You and me to the >end baby". Ditch Keith >this week and then Tina >next (at least Liz might >believe that). Colby would >be in the best position >if Keith goes this week. ....it'll be too late...cause she'll already be alligned with BT and KKK. >Colby should realize all of this >this week and play accordingly. ...you don't understand, it won't matter what Colby does this week cause of the BT/KKK/Lislis alliance that willform. >- Liz win immunity, Liz >has the power, Colby must >allign with Liz who is >trustworthy, they likely vote off >Keith. ...will never happen! >- Tina wins immunty, Liz >has the power, Colby must >allign with Liz and Liz >would have to be worried, >they vote off Keith. ...once again, won't happen.   Top

nailbone 27263 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-25-01, 05:03 PM (EST) 39. "You probably won't believe it, but...." ....but I'm gonna toss it out here cuz it's too good to pass by. A member of the EZ board called "supercrapmonkey" supposedly met Colby at a Jazz/Mavs game in Salt Lake City and spoke to him a couple of times, then carried on quite a lengthy, beer-induced conversation last night. Among other items brought out are that he DOES NOT get booted this week, and that Tina is definitely more openly bossy and manipulative than she's being portrayed. This sounds rather fishy at first glance, but Monkey's proven to be pretty reliable, and managed to convince everyone that he is and has done what he says. Take it with whatever grain you wish, but I hope it proves true Thursday night. The road goes on forever and the party never ends - Robert Earl Keen   Top

shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-25-01, 05:21 PM (EST) 41. "RE: You probably won't believe it, but...." LAST EDITED ON 04-25-01 AT 05:29 PM (EST) Among other items >brought out are that he >DOES NOT get booted this >week, ....I do believe that supercrap had a conversation with teh Colbster...i read his earlier posts this week about running into him and it sounded quite believable to me....BUT, do you really believe that colby would reveal that he doesn't get the boot this week (granted I haven't read the thread yet, so I don't know the details).....let's not forget what we learned from Varner.....DON'T BELIEVE A WORD THESE MEDIA WHORES SAY! I don't care how much he's had to drink...that doesn't mean he;s gonna spill the beans on the $5 million question....he's not that stupid, especially after learning his lesson with his screw up in Vegas. Sounds to me like Colby might be toying with the spoilers on this one...make up for his Vegas fvck up....plus, did monkey reveal that he was a poster on SS.com....if so, that would be more reason for the Colbster to plant a red herring. and that Tina is >definitely more openly bossy and >manipulative than she's being portrayed. ....hear me out for a second on this one......didn's Burn-it say that we will like the winner this year? IF so, then that might be why he has gone out of his way to NOT show the bossy and manipulative side of Tina...instead we have seen the nice side...is this Burn-it's way of shaping the editing so we will like the winner (Tina) unlike last year when he showed us all of Dique's plotting and scheming. I don't have time to address CJ's post right now, but I will as soon as I get home from work...I have an answer to everything he brings up...so don't jump off the bandwagon just yet....and besides, it doens't exactly make me feel bad that CJ is opposed to my theory given his far from spectacular track record this season in terms of predicitions, especially since the merge. Sorry CJ, ya know I love ya but I had to bring that up...okay, maybe I didn't, but what can I say, I'm very protective of my theory   Top

nailbone 27263 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-25-01, 05:27 PM (EST) 42. "RE: You probably won't believe it, but...." > >I don't care how much he's >had to drink...that doesn't mean >he;s gonna spill the beans >on the $5 million question....he's >not that stupid. > I wonder if, since he didn't really reveal more than who doesn't get tossed this week, he didn't worry about that point. >Sounds to me like Colby might >be toying with the spoilers >on this one...plus, did monkey >reveal that he was a >poster on SS.com....if so, that >would be more reason for >the Colbster to plant a >red herring. > Didn't appear that way. He did, at the end, mention that he was gonna post it on the internet, but said Colby laughed and said nobody would believe it anyway. > > >....hear me out for a second >on this one......didn's Burn-it say >that we will like the >winner this year? IF >so, then that might be >why he has gone out >of his way to NOT >show the bossy and manipulative >side of Tina...instead we have >seen the nice side...is this >Burn-it's way of shaping the >editing so we will like >the winner (Tina) unlike last >year when he showed us >all of Dique's plotting and >scheming. > > True..... > and >besides, it doens't exactly make >me feel bad that CJ >is opposed to my theory >given his far from spectacular >track record this season in >terms of predicitions, especially since >the merge. Sorry CJ, ya >know I love ya but >I had to bring that >up...okay, maybe I didn't, but >what can I say, I'm >very protective of my theory > > Brrrr..... And I'm bringing this in cuz I want Colby to go to at least the Final 3, and this will debunk your theory that he doesn't. > > The road goes on forever and the party never ends - Robert Earl Keen   Top

Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 04-25-01, 05:46 PM (EST) 44. "RE: You probably won't believe it, but...." Shakesy, Escuse me but I have had a great season this year I thank you!!! Lets look at all that I have done. I picked correctly in weeks one and two (so did everyone with a normal brain). Week three I convinced through photographic evidence that Kucha won immunity. The board did not pick the correct bootee but prior to my analysis we were all leaning towards an Ogakor win (mostly due to the Roger stumble (remember)!!!. I was the one who proved the Michael going due to burning his hands and backed up my theory with photographic and other evidence. I correctly picked Alicia, Nick, Amber (though I did give reasons why it could have been Keith), and last week Roger. I take offense at what you say regarding my track record thus far, but I love you too!!! CJ   Top

shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-25-01, 07:31 PM (EST) 46. "Sorry CJ, but....." ...my smear campaign against you does not have time to be bogged down with simple things such as the truth. Actually, I was referring to the waivering you did post-merger...first, you posted that we should not fall for the spoilers and that Ogakor was going to pick off Kucha one by one....then you changed your tune and started claiming Keith would go just about every week....it just seemed like you've been all over the board since the merge....I am in no way doubting your impressive performance, pre-merge. Sorry for the confusion............and your poor predictions oh I just couldn't resist. Now, I have to work on answering your origianl post!   Top

nailbone 27263 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-26-01, 09:48 AM (EST) 53. "RE: You probably won't believe it, but...." BTW, the guy who posted this admitted last nite that he made it all up. My apologies for adding to the hoax. I am....THEWEAKESTLINK!!! The road goes on forever and the party never ends - Robert Earl Keen   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-25-01, 08:59 PM (EST) 50. "RE: For the believers: Why Keith might go" Last night, I made an incoherent argument against Shakes' comments that Colby was gone this week. Tonight, after sleeping for more than four hours, I will try to make that argument more logical and coherent... The absolute best thing that could happen to Tina right now is a Keith ouster, coupled with a Colby immunity... don't jump on the Colby bandwagon just yet! Okay, first of all, from the previews we have seen that this week's immunity challenge appears to be a very difficult obstacle course... personally, I have a feeling that this is selective editing, and that tomorrow morning, on the Early Show, we will see that the obstacle course is a reward challenge, and Paired Off may even make its appearance as the IC... I think that it would be an unfair advantage to have a physical RC at this point in the game... However, if the obstacle course is, indeed, the IC, Colby will win. He is far more physical that the others, and is also well fed. I have a difficult time believeing that anyone else could beat him... however, this is not the point of my post... the point is: Tina should be rooting for Colby to win immunity. Since it does not appear that Tina will be booted this week, that means that, from her perspective, she will be up against either Colby and Keith, Colby and Lizzy, or Keith and Lizzy. If she is in the final three in either situation with Keith, she or Keith will need to win immunity in order for her to advance, but if she's up against Colby and Lizzy, it is likely that either of them would take her to the final two (Colby because he will have a better chance to win, Lizzy because she will respect Tina more than Colby), therefore Tina would not need to worry about the final IC in order to make it to the jury. Tina will beat Colby. It appears that, despite Tina's constant desire to place a knife in people's backs, she has been able to do so with a smile on her face, and there don't seem to be a lot of grudges. Alicia respects Tina's game. Jerri seems to blame Keith for her ouster, and Colby for his betrayal, more than Tina. Nick is buddies with Colby, but respects Tina. Who knows where his vote will fall. Amber had her nose so far up Jerri's butt, that she didn't even notice that she wasn't in the alliance... she'll probably vote for the stud, but you never know. Rodger respects Tina and is her friend. Keith will vote for his alliance member, Tina, as long as his ouster isn't at her hands. Lizzy will vote for her mommy. A final thought... the only reason Jerri, Amber, and Keith lasted as long as they did is that Tina stepped down at the appropriate time in the IC, so long ago... bet on her to play that trump card at the jury. Tina will not beat Lizzy... Go see my rampant speculation thread... I'm not gonna spell out all of these. Thus, if Keith is ousted as a direct result of Lizzy and Colby, Tina will win in 2 out of 3 situations, and will still get the runner up prize in the third (if Lizzy wins and takes her to the final two)... If anyone else is ousted, she will win in 2 out of 3 situations (same odds), but in the third case she will finish in third place... Thus, she does not decrease her odds at winning, but also hedges her bets, essentially guaranteeing herself a spot on the jury. The only danger with this strategy is that she cannot have a hand in Keith's ouster at all... doing so would turn him against her, and give Colby the money... she must find a way to get rid of him, and the only way for her to do that is for Colby to win immunity. If Colby wins immunity, Tina and Keith will target Lizzy by default. Expect Tina to talk to Lizzy and apoligize, explaining that it's just a part of the game, as she has done all along. This apology, coupled with Colby's immunity and Lizzy's vote last week for Keith will assure that Lizzy will vote for Keith at TC. Then, expect Tina to make her move on the way to TC... remember, Tina has engineered tie votes before... we know that she was directly responsible for Mitchell's ouster... thus don't be surprised if she engineers one final tie. All she has to do is say, "Hey Colby... Keith and I appreciate that you're voting with our alliance tonight. Keith was worried, because Lizzy is voting for him tonight, but I assured him that you'd vote with us. You've really helped the two of us get this far."... or something equally as conniving... watch how fast Colby will realize that he's the next to go, and vote for Keith. Thus, Keith is ejected in a tie, and Tina gets her wish... all without the danger of a Colby/Lizzy alliance... now there are seemingly three free agents, and Tina will have an easy time allying with Colby to go to the final two... and if Lizzy wins immunity, she'll take Tina who has always been open and honest, and has truly played a better game. Now, with all of this said and done, we need to ask how likely it is that Colby wins immunity. As I said at the beginning, I don't see anyone else winning if the obstacle course is the IC... I urge everyone not to vote until after the Early Show has aired... Colby isn't the shoe-in that shakes is trying to convince everyone that he is.   Top

shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-25-01, 10:05 PM (EST) 51. "you're better when you're drunk Sleeeeve" >Okay, first of all, from the >previews we have seen that >this week's immunity challenge appears >to be a very difficult >obstacle course... personally, I have >a feeling that this is >selective editing, and that tomorrow >morning, on the Early Show, >we will see that the >obstacle course is a reward >challenge, and Paired Off may >even make its appearance as >the IC... ...I agree with you on that one....I'm expecting a paired off IC with Steve Irwin making aguest appearance and instructing the Survivors in the proper way to handle the animals. And who is favored in a mental challenge? Well, we've only had one mental challenge since the merge and KKK won it...granted that was more luck than anything else, but he DID win it. And just ask Conspiracy Jim who gets tossed if KKK wins an IC. if she's up against >Colby and Lizzy, it is >likely that either of them >would take her to the >final two ....no way! Lislis would take Colby into the final 2 with her cause that will be her best chance of winning in her opinion. All she needs is ONE vote from Ogakor to win the million (3 kucha votes)and although she has no first hand knowledge of Lamber and Scerri's anger towards Tina, she does have first hand knowlegde of Keith and Colby's dislike for each other....she might put 2 and 2 together and think she could get KKK's vote vs Colby. (Lizzy because she >will respect Tina more than >Colby), therefore Tina would not >need to worry about the >final IC in order to >make it to the jury ...cmon Sleeve, you're way too intelligent to make a retarded argument like that! I just have one word to say to you.... $1,000,000.00 that is the only thing that will be on Lislis mind if she won that final IC, and what would be the best way to get it. Respect will have nothing to do with it....and it shouldn't. >I urge everyone not to vote >until after the Early Show >has aired... Colby isn't the >shoe-in that shakes is trying >to convince everyone that he >is. ....my logic still stands: 1. Tina runs this game 2. the smartest thing for Tina to do is get rid of Colby 3. therefore, Colby goes 4. Satisfies jury pic red herring and vegas spoiler   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-25-01, 10:27 PM (EST) 52. "you're better when you're sober, clown..." >she >does have first hand knowlegde >of Keith and Colby's dislike >for each other....she might put >2 and 2 together and >think she could get KKK's >vote vs Colby. Or she might be concerned that voting out Tina will cost her BOTH Tina's and KKK's vote... then she has to rely on either a vote from Amber or Jerri, and she saw how in "love" (or should I say lust) with Colby they were... in her mind, this is suicide... But if she's against Tina, she might be able to get Colby, Amber, or Jerri, because she knows that Tina engineered all of their votes, and she only needs one, as you put it! >(Lizzy because she >>will respect Tina more than >>Colby), therefore Tina would not >>need to worry about the >>final IC in order to >>make it to the jury > > >...cmon Sleeve, you're way too intelligent >to make a retarded argument >like that! I just >have one word to say >to you.... $1,000,000.00 that >is the only thing that >will be on Lislis mind >if she won that final >IC, and what would be >the best way to get >it. Respect will have >nothing to do with it....and >it shouldn't. Fine, then defer to my above comments, Tina makes as much, if not more sense than Colby for a final two opponent... I also think that after the kindness that Tina has shown to the Kucha while eliminating them, Lizzy will have a hard time justifying her removal from the game... >>I urge everyone not to vote >>until after the Early Show >>has aired... Colby isn't the >>shoe-in that shakes is trying >>to convince everyone that he >>is. > > >....my logic still stands: > >1. Tina runs this game And in my scenario, she does too, but Colby wins immunity in my scenario, so she has to find a different way to run it. >2. the smartest thing for >Tina to do is get >rid of Colby >3. therefore, Colby goes But what if he wins immunity clown... all I'm saying is wait to vote until after the early show... if they show Paired Off as the IC, or if they give me any reason to believe that Colby does not win IC, I'll be right there voting for Colby with everyone else. As I said in my rampant strategy speculation, I think that he DOES make the most sense, but if you're gonna post that he's the only one that makes sense, expect the devil's advocate in me to come out and make sure all sides of the issue are debated. >4. Satisfies jury pic red herring >and vegas spoiler So does mine, with Lizzy winning final IC and taking Tina to the finals. > > With a spinning head like that, I'd think that you could see all sides of the issue.   Top

Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 04-26-01, 10:13 AM (EST) 54. "HEY SHAKES!!!" Shakes, I am so glad that I decided to go off on you yesturday instead of this morning. Now I took a quick read and I have people backing me up left and right. Though I never like to use the following sources as spoiler info, in this case since they agree with me and disagree with you I am going to note them... 1. Rich Hatch states 100% for sure that LizLiz is gone. For that to happen I would say that COlby wins IC (LOOK FOR THIS TO HAPPEN). 2. Brain Trust states LizLiz also. Boy, looking good here. 3. Boston Herald states Keith. So... In either case I am going to come out good... Here we go, since this week has really been your views against my views I have decided to throw the gauntlet down... I propose that if Colby goes tonight, that I will write and post a Shakes is a God, how could I have doubted him thread but... If Colby loses and either LizLiz goes or Keith goes, then you would have to do the same for me. Now, will you pick up the gauntlet?!!!??? Still lovin ya! Conspiracy Jim   Top

shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-26-01, 11:29 AM (EST) 55. "RE: HEY SHAKES!!!" >1. Rich Hatch states 100% >for sure that LizLiz is >gone. For that to >happen I would say that >COlby wins IC (LOOK FOR >THIS TO HAPPEN). ...all that means is Lislis is safe since Rich is a complete moron and has never been right.....what kind of ass would say that someone was 100% for sure the bootee > >2. Brain Trust states LizLiz >also. ....actually, they said that they were leaning towards Lislis...my bet is that they end up copying the Boston Herald and going with Keith. >3. Boston Herald states Keith. ....now, you got me....got to admit that I shuddered briefly when I read that this morning....DAMN! > >Here we go, since this week >has really been your views >against my views I have >decided to throw the gauntlet >down... ...does the winner get $500,000 like in Boot Camp? > >I propose that if Colby goes >tonight, that I will write >and post a Shakes is >a God, how could I >have doubted him thread but... ....I can't believe I haven't posted that thread already. > > >If Colby loses and either LizLiz >goes or Keith goes, >then you would have to >do the same for me. ...of course I willl...I was already formualting my apology in my head as soon as I read the Boston Herald pick. Hell, I'll even come over and wash your car. > > >Now, will you pick up the >gauntlet?!!!??? ....gauntlet accepted. I'm not afraid to be wrong...if that was the case I wouldn't go out on the limbs I regularly do on this board. > >Still lovin ya! > >Conspiracy Jim ...right back at ya CJ! Go Colby! And take your stupid fur hat with you!   Top

shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-26-01, 11:37 AM (EST) 56. "one more thing CJ" If I am not mistaken, didn't you base your "colby is safe" analysis on the belief that the "Ultimate challenge" was was the Immunity and not the reward and would therefore favor the Colbster, who would therefore win Immunity. IF that is the case, you may very well arrive at the right conclusion, but you cant dispute the fact that you used faulty logic to get there....and in my opinion, that is the same thing as getting it wrong....just ask all the people who correctly guessed Scerri in E#9, but did so with completely incorrect logic.   Top

Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 04-26-01, 12:21 PM (EST) 57. "RE: one more thing CJ" Actually when I first started this "IT MIGHT NOT BE COLBY" battle I logically assumed that the "ultimate challenge" was reward. I came to that conclusion because MB usually doesn't show us IC until Thursday morning, if at all. Someone responded and informed me that in the preview the challenge was described as "the ultimate immunity challenge". That made me second guess myself. My logic on it not being COlby all comes down to who wins IC. As I have pointed out the following scenerios should play out based on who wins IC... 1. Colby wins IC, Colby has power to boot either Keith or Liz, he wants Keith in the final 2 against him, Liz goes. (The above is the likely scenerio for tonight) 2. Liz wins immunity, Liz has the power, Colby knows that T and K will likely vote for him, he must turn to Liz and convince her to oust Keith. I think he could convince her. Keith goes though it could be Colby (Liz has the choice). 3. Tina wins immunity, Liz and COlby share the power, Colby would have to be worried about the backstab. He would have to either believe Benedict Tina or join up with Liz. He would choose the latter and likely Liz would do so. Keith goes though it could be Colby (Liz decides once again). 4. Keith wins immunity --- COLBY IS SCREWED. Now either way, if the IC is paired up or "the ultimate challenge" then Keith is at a disadvantage. He has showed his knack for loosing immunty when he should win it and will likely do the same tonight. Colby will likely win tonight but even if it turns out that one of the gals wins, then either way Keith has a better than 50% chance of going. Sure it might be Colby but he is the one who has been eating and protein not only makes you physically the strongest but also effects your mentality. He has won the past two food eating rewards and if food is part of the "ULTIMATE CHALLENGE" reward (and it likely will be) then I expect him to win that one also. More food for him. He is then refreshed, fed, maybe showered, etc. I am sticking to my thought that each of the remaining four has a family member in California waiting to be flown out. The tooth paste and brush, mirror, etc, will come as care packages (just like last year). As soon as Colby (I mean someone) wins the "ULTIMATE CHALLENGE" then that person's family member (who has already been packed, debriefed, and is at the airport ready to go in MB's private jet) departs. 24 hours later guess what... A helo comes flying down and Colby's mommy gets off. We know it ain't Tina's husband or Liz' mom, as their reations are not that of seeing a loved one after a month. Colby's reaction is not shown... Or it could just be the Croc Hunter to guest host "paired up". Either way, Colby stays, wins next weeks IC and has a good shot at the money. Much better than the 100% chance of getting the boot as you said! Conspiracy Jim "Riddle me this, Batman"!!!   Top

DivaByTheSea 175 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 04-26-01, 01:02 PM (EST) 58. "I'm a believer with you Shakes" I thought that it was Colby's time to go last week, so my PTTE got fouled up. BUT, I think that it's just a matter of Rodger and Colby switching boots in my mind. He's a definite goner. Tina knows that he will want Keith to the end. I'm in the 'biz' and I watch for editing, storylines, etc. and it's Tina story now. Keith and Colby and Liz and Rodger were backstory. Colby, Lis, Keith, and TINA that's the order **** Remember, the mighty oak was once just a crazy little nut that held its ground. ****   Top

IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-26-01, 06:19 PM (EST) 59. "I'm Riding This One All the Way In!" LAST EDITED ON 04-26-01 AT 06:23 PM (EST) I'm sticking to my guns... Braintrust and Boston Herald bedamned! A summary of predictions! The multi-challenge depicted in the previews is the RC not the IC... The visitor on board the helicopter will be a family member... judging by the reaction of Liz it's her ailing Mom... they took pains to introduce that story element last week prior to Rodger's departure. The IC will be 'Paired Off' where the mirrors, brush, and toothbrush appear as ancilliary prizes. Liz wins this decidedly non-physical challenge as well. Colby gets the boot at TC... I will now sit here in the middle of the floor sticking my fingers in my ears and yelling 'La-La-La I'm not Listening La-La-La' IceCat La-La-La-La-La-La-La   Top

MC_Hampster 105 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 04-26-01, 06:29 PM (EST) 60. "Definately Colby in my opinion" I'm sticking with Colby also. I think one of the biggest spoilers that is nearly always good to go by is how the previous show was edited. We can talk for days about who's friends with who (the fact that Amber and Jerri didn't SEEM to be like good friends threw Amber's boot off for a lot of you!) and who made trips where and who spent this much or that much time at the ranch. When it comes down to real spoiling, I think out biggest hint is the previous episode. And has mentioned before by many, this definately points towards Colby going tonight!   Top

volmel 362 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 04-26-01, 09:27 PM (EST) 61. "Bump" Just a nice friendly bump for this thread. Wouldn't want it to slip to the second page. This is Big Orange and Tina Wesson country.   Top

shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-26-01, 09:41 PM (EST) 62. "RE: Bump" ....thanks Mel...might as well take this opportunity to congragualte you on calling the C/T alliance. ...at least I know how to lose with class, unlike some other media whores (Scerri)   Top

volmel 362 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 04-26-01, 09:44 PM (EST) 63. "RE: Bump" Oh what do I know. I picked Keith to go tonight... This is Big Orange and Tina Wesson country.   Top

AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 04-26-01, 09:49 PM (EST) 64. "Not losing" >...at least I know how to lose with class, unlike some other media whores (Scerri) Nahh, this isn't losing, shakes. This is using your abilities to make the best prediction you can, and then clutching the arms of your chair as it does or doesn't come true. In other words, this is FUN! Of course, you could be talking about LC ... but I don't think so ...   Top

volmel 362 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 04-26-01, 10:04 PM (EST) 65. "RE: Bump" LAST EDITED ON 04-27-01 AT 02:05 AM (EST) I only have one request of you. When you write this week's summary, you point out how Colby's mother, Gay, wears eye makeup like Tammy Faye. (having a Mary Kay moment) This is Big Orange and Tina Wesson country.   Top

Elisabeth Rules 39 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 04-26-01, 10:13 PM (EST) 66. "DIE COLBY" ##### YOU COLBY! DIE! GO TO HELL! sorry...DAMN IT ELISABETH, ALL YOU HAD TO DO WAS WIN IMMUNITY!!!!   Top

IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-26-01, 10:23 PM (EST) 67. "OMGlick... Love Cruise Spoiler!" > "...at least I know how to lose with class, unlike some > other media whores (Scerri)" Shakes the Clown The statement is made within the context of being a 'media whore' as opposed to a 'desperate attention whore'. This is bigger than the Rodger past tense slip-up on Rosie! ... and so it begins... IceCat   Top

shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-26-01, 10:31 PM (EST) 68. "RE: OMGlick... Love Cruise Spoiler!" ...of course it might be possible tha I am referring to the loss I suffered, oh I don't know, TONIGHT.... Believe me, if/when I go down in LC, I'm going out Soozin style...there will be no class involved cause if there's one thing us seasoned media whores know its that "class" and "ratings" go together about as well as Kimmi and a Fish Fry. But, then again.....the over/under in Vegas (my friends) before I left for the filming was three hours after castoff. "I wil do anything to protect the integrity of my show." -Mark Burn-it (my hero)   Top

LIZZLOVER 235 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-26-01, 10:32 PM (EST) 69. "Chaos?" LAST EDITED ON 04-26-01 AT 10:40 PM (EST) "the fact that complex and UNPREDICTABLE (edit: unless you're Eliipsiis) results can AND WILL occur in systems that are sensitive to their initial conditions" Of course, I REALLY do wish you had been right tonight! Lizz Just Is(n't a player a player anymore, simply a Juror)   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-26-01, 10:59 PM (EST) 70. "RE: Chaos?" Okay, just want to say a few things: godddaaaam immunity! I will say that this time around Colby won the thing fair and square. The reward win was questionable but at least he got that conjugal visit with mom where she got to take pictures of him showering. Finally, to make myself feel better, I still believe that we (those of us that thought Colby was gone) were right in our thinking. Immunity got in our way, but at least the logic was there. But yes, we did chose the wrong spoilers to believe. All right. I'm starting to get over it. LizzJustWas   Top

LIZZLOVER 235 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-26-01, 11:20 PM (EST) 71. "RE: Chaos?" You are correct P2S. You were absolutely right, because I think Colby would have been booted, if not for the IC. But since Immunity is a part of the game, and has to be accounted for, no one can be declared a Deinitie Goner. It was good Speculation/Theory on Shakes' part and made a lot of sense (not to mention..fit in well with the Jesus hoax). There are a lot of good theories out there, and all but 18 of us here, got burnt tonight. I picked Keith, so I am one of them. And just so you know...the LizJustWas..was a good one! I wondered how long it would take to see that one. Apparently, not too long!! Lizz Still Is(n't a player, simply a JUROR)   Top

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