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sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-20-01, 11:05 PM (EST) "Rampant Strategy Speculation" All right... here goes the patented sleeeve speculation... (Brought to you by the people who thought there was a Colby/Tina alliance and who thought that Colby was gonna decide his own fate.) At this point in the game, I think that it is clear that all of the contestants are thinking about the end game... they are so close to the million dollars that they can taste it (and it tastes a lot like paper, which is a great change from rice!)... I think that, by taking a backward look, we may be able to figure out what the contestants will try to do next round. First, the final jury votes: In the top row of this table, I have listed the jury members in the order they were voted off. In the first column, is a listing of all possible final-two combinations... then, below each jury member is the person that they would vote for (IMO) in each final two combination... the winner in each case is listed in the last column... Final 2 | Jury=> A J N A R L K C T Winner Liz/Keith L L L L L - - L K Liz (6-1) Liz/Colby L L L C L - C - L Liz (5-2) Liz/Tina L L L L L - T L - Liz (6-1) Keith/Colby C C C C C C - - K Colby (6-1) Keith/Tina T T T T T T - T - Tina (7-0) Colby/Tina C C ? C T T T - - ? (3-3) Okay, we can see from this that, IMO Liz will win, regardless of her opponent, but only if she can actually make it to the final two... the other contestants will want to prevent this. Either Colby or Tina can beat Keith, and between the two of them, it will be a toss-up. If Keith makes it to the final two, I don't see him winning... his chances are about as good as, oh I don't know... that Dicque guy, last season... (okay... obviously these are my opinions, and I thought Rich could not beat anyone last year, but this is how I see the final vote going at this point...) With all of this said, Tina and Colby should try to face Keith in the final round, or face each other as a second choice. Lizzy's only hope is to survive to the final two, which will likely be a difficult task. Keith really doesn't have any options, but will try his best anyway. Now, let's make some assumptions and see where they lead us. If Colby is voted out next week... And Keith wins Immunity, he'll take Tina to the finals. Tina will take Keith. Liz will take Keith (or maybe Tina). If Keith is voted out next week... And Colby wins Immunity, he'll take Tina to the finals. Tina will take Colby. Liz will take Tina (or maybe Colby). If Tina is voted out next week... And Keith wins Immunity, he'll take Colby to the finals. Colby will take Keith. Liz will take Keith (or maybe Colby). If Liz is voted out next week... And Keith wins Immunity, he'll take Tina to the finals. Tina will take Keith. Colby will take Keith. So what should everyone's strategy be, next week, to put themselves in the best position to win??? Tina might vote for Keith to guarantee herself a spot in the final two, regardless of who wins immunity, but this would leave her in a risky run against Colby in the finals (or even worse, Liz)... Instead, if she votes for either Colby or Liz, that person just needs to NOT win immunity. Since we know from past experience that Colby is a huge challenge risk, it's better for her to get rid of him... Her second choice would be to vote for Keith, since either a Colby or a Tina win would put her in the finals, and Elizabeth should be easy to beat. If Tina can't dump Colby, she will get rid of Keith and take a risk with the jury vs. Colby. Keith really has no options to win, but he can increase his odds if Liz is voted out. However, I think that out of respect for Tina, and out of fear of retaliation from Colby, he will vote however Tina tells him to. Thus, his first choice will be for Colby, but his second choice will be for Liz... he will never turn on Tina (even though she might turn on him). Colby does not want to vote for Liz, because doing so would knock him out of competition, unless he is able to pull off an improbable immunity win in the final round. He will have the best chance to win if he faces Keith in the finals, but I think that last week's comments about Keith will come into play, and he will decide that Keith is done. Thus, I think his first choice will be to vote for Keith, but his second choice will be Tina. Liz can only win at this point if she wins the final immunity. In order to do this, she needs to vote off the strongest. Both Keith and Colby are strong, and are proven challenge winners, but Colby is on a winning streak, and she will want to end that to help herself. Thus, her first choice is Colby, but her second choice is Keith. Summary for Next Week T votes C (alt. K) K votes C (alt. L) C votes K (alt. T) L votes C (alt. K) Thus, if everyone plays to their best strategy, Colby is out (unless he wins immunity in which case Keith goes)... but that's a big if... judging by what we've seen of these contestants, strategy is not their forte... so who knows what might happen... Okay... who thinks I'm on crack?... flame away! (BTW: Today is 4/20... It's NOT crack...)   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation RudyRules 04-20-01 1    RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation sleeeve 04-21-01 3        RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation RudyRules 04-21-01 11            RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation Loree 04-22-01 15  WOW!! munson 04-21-01 2    RE: WOW!! Thinking 04-21-01 5  RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation Loree 04-21-01 4  RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation SurvivinDawg 04-21-01 6    RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation sleeeve 04-21-01 9        RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation volmel 04-24-01 23  RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation YellowOrb 04-21-01 7    RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation VampKira 04-21-01 8  IMO ALL Ogas on the jury SHOULD vot... bebekid 04-21-01 10  RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation true 04-21-01 12  Why would Jerri vote for Colby over... anotherkim 04-22-01 13    RE: Why would Jerri vote for Colby ... Mumbo Jumbo 04-22-01 14        RE: Why would Jerri vote for Colby ... Outfrontgirl 04-23-01 16  RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation MDSkinner 04-23-01 17    RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation Outfrontgirl 04-23-01 18        RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation Bebo 04-23-01 19        RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation MDSkinner 04-23-01 20            RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation Outfrontgirl 04-23-01 21                RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation MDSkinner 04-24-01 24    RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation sleeeve 04-23-01 22

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RudyRules 8360 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-20-01, 11:59 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation" Well maybe you're on something, I'm not sure what I just posted the following in another thread but I think this is the way it should go if everyone follows their best strategy: Colby needs Keith around for the final 2. Lis would beat either Keith or Colby in the final 2. Tina would PROBABLY beat either of them as well. Where does that leave us: 1. Keith and Colby vote against Lis (or Tina if Lis has immunity), they need to take each other to the final 2 to have a good shot at winning. Neither of them can beat Lis in a final 2 pairing and either one would probably lose to Tina in the finals. So they vote out Tina after dispatching Lis. 2. Lis votes against Colby (or Keith if Colby has immunity). Lis should want a match up against one of the two men, she DEFINITELY beats them in a one on one match up but Tina has an outside shot against her. 3. Tina is in an interesting position: She SHOULD team up with Lis and vote out either Colby or Keith, then she and the remaining Kucha vote out Lis in the next round (unless Lis gets immunity - unlikely) because NO ONE wants to go up against Lis in the final 2. Tina then gets into the finals where she can prevail against Keith and probably against Colby. Her other option is to stay with the alliance and vote off Lis and pray that she gets immunity in the final 3 match up - otherwise she's gone. That's the way I see it anyway.   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-21-01, 00:34 AM (EST) 3. "RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation" >Her other option >is to stay with the >alliance and vote off Lis >and pray that she gets >immunity in the final 3 >match up - otherwise she's >gone. > >That's the way I see it >anyway. This is precisely why Tina and Colby WILL NOT vote for Liz this episode... a vote for Liz is a vote for death... If Tina can knock out Colby, she will get to the finals unless Liz wins immunity in the final round... If she votes out Liz, she will win, unless Colby wins immunity in the final round. Which is more likely??? Little Lizzy winning immunity or Colby, the man who won't stop winning immunity???... Even if Keith is voted out, Tina makes the finals, unless Lizzy wins immunity (and even then, she might...) Now, let's look at Colby... If he boots Keith, he makes it, unless Lizzy wins IC (and even then he might)... If he boots Tina, he makes finals under same conditions, but will lose regard with the jury... If he boots Lizzy the ONLY way he can make the finals is if he wins IC... otherwise, Tina and Keith will take each other to the finals. Thus, neither of these people wants to boot Lizzy, now... much better to boot the biggest threat... Keith is along for the ride... no matter what Tina says.   Top

RudyRules 8360 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-21-01, 09:07 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation" "This is precisely why Tina and Colby WILL NOT vote for Liz this episode... a vote for Liz is a vote for death..." I respectfully disagree with regard to Colby. He needs to take Keith to the finals to ensure a win. If it's Tina against Colby, I beleive Colby only has about a 20% chance. Colby should vote against Lis this week, then take his chances to make the finals by winning yet another IC. Once again, either Keith or Colby will go this week if Tina uses correct strategy and votes with Lis against the man who doesn't get immunity. The result: 2 votes Lis, 2 votes either Colby or Keith, either of which lose due to previous votes against them.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-22-01, 12:50 PM (EST) 15. "RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation" I believe Keith is safe this week. It will be either Colby or Liz getting the boot. If one wins the IC the other is gone.   Top

munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 04-21-01, 00:13 AM (EST) 2. "WOW!!" Don't know what else to say, sleeeve. This is a phenomenal analysis of the end game scenarios! One thought...Should Colby win immunity in E13, I think Liz should go, not Keith. As you pointed out, while Colby is the biggest immunity threat and should be gone at the first opportunity, Liz is the bigger threat to win the whole game. Liz in the final three is one short, lucky IC victory away from a million $. It doesn't appear that Keith has much of a chance against anyone in a Final 2 scenario, so why would Tina vote for Keith under any circumstance? Scenario: Liz wins IC in E13: K/T/L vote Colby. Colby wins IC: C/K/T vote Liz. Tina wins IC: K/T/L vote Colby. Keith wins IC: K/T/L vote Colby. Of course, Colby's game with Keith could be over so an immune Colby might vote with Liz against Keith but I don't think it will happen. Colby came to win and if he realizes his best chance at victory is against Keith, then it's bye bye Bessie. In any event, whether it ends up with either Colby or Liz with K/T in the Final 3, it's really a 2-on-1 challenge at that point and I'd take my chances with Liz. One last point... While it may be obvious to the viewing audience that Keith has very little chance of winning this thing, it's hard to tell what he believes at this point. Keith could believe that he'd have the Kucha vote against Colby and along with Tina's vote, that would be more than enough to do it? We know that Alicia and Jerri became friends so he probably won't get a vote from Alicia, but Keith doesn't know that. He probably doesn't realize that Nick thinks he's arrogant for not bringing his backpack to TC. I just don't think that Keith thinks he doesn't have a shot. Not that this matters, really as a T/L decision to vote Colby is all that's necessary because he'll lose the tiebreaker after a deadlocked re-vote. But thought I'd bring it up anyway....   Top

Thinking 104 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 04-21-01, 01:56 AM (EST) 5. "RE: WOW!!" >While it may be obvious to >the viewing audience that Keith >has very little chance of >winning this thing, it's hard >to tell what he believes >at this point. Keith >could believe that he'd have >the Kucha vote against Colby >and along with Tina's vote, >that would be more than >enough to do it? >We know that Alicia and >Jerri became friends so he >probably won't get a vote >from Alicia, but Keith doesn't >know that. He probably >doesn't realize that Nick thinks >he's arrogant for not bringing >his backpack to TC. >I just don't think that >Keith thinks he doesn't have >a shot. Excellent point. We also don't really know what the participants will vote. If people who are kicked off trace the root of their booting to the real master-mind--TINA--maybe she won't get as many votes in her favor as people are thinking. I don't think Jerri's too happy about her, for one thing. And Amber can't feel good that "mom" dumped her, either. Rodger liked Tina, but he and Keith spent a lot of hours working in the camp together. And Alicia--I don't care how much time she spends shopping with Jerri. That's a strong woman who's going to make up her OWN mind, and not go along with another's opinion just 'cuz. She's NOT another Lamber (who WILL vote however Jerri does). As for Keith--he hasn't betrayed anyone now sitting on the jury. Not a one. Sure, he's a dufus sometimes, but being a dufus doesn't carry the same bad karma as being a Benedict Arnold/Tina. I tell you, after Dique actually WON S1, I'm afraid to try to predict how people will vote. I still can't believe how Sean OR Greg voted! In the Outback, fire is life...and third-degree burns.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-21-01, 01:01 AM (EST) 4. "RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation" I believe Nick would vote for Colby over Tina. I notice you left that one ?. Nick was buddies with Colby and they went to Vegas together. We never saw Nick around Tina and Tina complained about Nick not fishing. He probably picked up on that. Colby never complained about him.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-21-01, 09:41 AM (EST) 6. "RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation" Excellent post, sleeeve! Especially that outstanding table you created! A distinct touch! However, two things I did not see in your analysis: Jerri's revenge. MB saying that we will like the winner. The Survivor We Love To Hate gave us tremendous spoiler information in her exit interviews. Amongst her cackles of glee came forth the information that she got back at somebody. I therefore have surmised these things: 1) I do not believe it will be Keith v. Tina in the Final Two. 2) Who do we love the most? Lis! *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged "I've never been bored a day in my life. Only boring people get bored." -- Jerri Manthey   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-21-01, 03:08 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation" >However, two things I did not >see in your analysis: >Jerri's revenge. MB saying >that we will like the >winner. It's there... notice that in the jury votes, she gets back at someone from her team each time... I was analyzing every possible combination, not necessarily saying which was most likely to happen... just trying to discern what the PLAYER'S strategy was. >1) I do not believe it >will be Keith v. Tina >in the Final Two. Neither do I... this seems too perfect... I think that either Colby or Keith will go next week (as noted at the end, depending on immunity). Then, look for Lizzy to throw a wrench into the works... I'm thinking she might pull off a final IC victory, taking her to the final two (and the win!)   Top

volmel 362 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 04-24-01, 11:46 AM (EST) 23. "RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation" > Then, look for Lizzy >to throw a wrench into >the works... I'm thinking she >might pull off a final >IC victory, taking her to >the final two (and the >win!) Rodger appeared this morning on the Rosie show. Something that was said that was interesting: Said "if she had won she WAS going to help out some" with family medical bills. Now that "was" could mean that Liz does not win, using the past tense. Rosie then asked what was up with the medical bills for Elizabeth. It seemed that he was hesitant to go into this too much, but then said that it was a problem in Elizabeth's family. This is when he said that Elizabeth had told him that if she had won she would have used some of the money to help with the bills. Again, past tense "if she had won". (Thanks for my sister-in-law for watching and reporting this to me) This is Big Orange and Tina Wesson country.   Top

YellowOrb 10 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 04-21-01, 11:26 AM (EST) 7. "RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation" Excellent chart sleeeve. I've been doing the same thing - working backwards. My chart also shows that Lis beats anybody, Colby beats anybody but Lis, but I'm not so sure about a Keith/Tina match-up. Oh, and my chart is color-coded for the final two pairs, but I think that's a chick thing.... I don't know how to upload a chart, so I'll link here: http://funcharts.homestead.com/files/survivorfinal2.html   Top

VampKira 4433 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 04-21-01, 11:46 AM (EST) 8. "RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation" Wow Sleeeve.. All this and a tech teacher too! *smile* You made me feel alot better about picking Liz to win it all.. But the Keith thing still bothers me. As has been said, Jerri looked sooo happy in her interview with Bryant.. I'll never forget this... BG:"Yeah? Paybacks are a......." Scerri: "yes" with her signature grin. then adds "paybacks, exactly." I had just assumed (haha) that it was directed at Keith.. although, It could as easily be Tina.. Even if she hated Keith more than Tina, women sometimes have this "thing" about other women..and in MY experience, A woman usually relishes sticking it to another female that she thinks "screwed" her in some way.. See what I am dealing with here?? LOL. If it is Liz and ? in the final two, you gotta go for Liz.. but if it is K&T...well...Which is the lesser of two evils in Jerri's book?? w.l.s.f.c One fish. Two fish. Lum fish. Hue fish. "I'm gonna take a bath so the whole tent doesn't smell like ass at the end of the night" - The late, and often absent, Nick Brown   Top

bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 04-21-01, 04:00 PM (EST) 10. "IMO ALL Ogas on the jury SHOULD vote for Tina" I know, this statement is too simple. So much comes into play for the final vote. I just hope the former Ogas that sit on that jury remember what Tina did for them in getting off the pole and giving Keith immunity. They would have been down 5 to 4 and would have been picked off one by one. Those Kuchas were bonded together much tighter than the Ogas. Keith would have been the first to go, then Jerri. They might would have booted Colby next, but Jerri would not have been far behind. Rodger and Lis might have brought Tina along farther than any other Oga, but she would have gotten 6th place at best. Tina single-handedly brought at least Colby and Keith (if not all of them) as far as they have gotten with her action of getting off that pole. Will they show her their gratitiude in the final vote? We shall see.   Top

true 9689 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-21-01, 10:54 PM (EST) 12. "RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation" What if... Colby loses IC next week, and realizes he's done. He can't break up K/T, so he approaches Liz. Colby tells Liz something like "hey, I like you, Keith's an @ss, and if I go now, you are surely next" It could be possible that Colby and Liz make a deal to stick together and vote out Keith in a tie break, against T/K votes for Colby. Then it's C/L against Tina. I think it's Liz's best option, and Colby's too if he wants to guarantee final 2. If Keith wins IC. I think Colby is done. For some reason, I want to start spoiling the spoilers. It all just seems to obvious.   Top

anotherkim 14420 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-22-01, 00:47 AM (EST) 13. "Why would Jerri vote for Colby over Tina???/" I am just adding this in here since the thought probably isn't worthy of a new thread, but I can't see why everyone assumes Jerri's comments about paybacks are directed at tina. Colby screwed Jerri over at least twice and she had the hots for him to boot. 1. he one-upped her with the coral 2. he led her to believe that they were an alliance along with Amber. I bet once she saw his comments about her and the way MB edited the reef trip she was humilitated beyond belief. She all but said she wanted to do him on national TV and then finds out he was trashing her? Her payback comment could be a precurser to her voting against him even if he is faced with Tina. She knows she voted against him already and knows that in the end the joke is on him. She had to be hurt big time by him booting her-she just had to be. I can't think of any reason in the world she would vote for him. She and Tina went after Kel and she also repsects people palying the game. She thought she and Colby were playing it together and he betrayed her--big time. Also, I would think that the others realize that Tina is playing the game well. Liz could beat Tina, but it would be close. I think she would win out over Keith or Colby. Tina versus Keith --7-0 as stated above--why would anyone vote for Keith? Tina versus Colby I can see why Nick would chose him, but that is it. Alicia and Jerri have bonded--I bet they vote the same. Amber might vote for Colby if there is no Jerri influence. Tina versus Liz Colby and Keith vote for Tina, the rest go Liz I think immunity is crucial this week to Colby and Elisabeth and I think that Colby is the he that the CBS teaser refers to. he has to know he is too much of a threat to get by without immunity. Colby can't afford to go to the final two with Liz--if he forms a pact with her then he is screwed. No way Tina and Keith would vote for him the final, nor would Jerri. His best bet is to win immunity the next two rounds and face off against Tina or keith, although I still think Tina could beat him.   Top

Mumbo Jumbo 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-22-01, 11:07 AM (EST) 14. "RE: Why would Jerri vote for Colby over Tina???/" In Jerri's post-boot interviews, I was very surprised at how little she ranted about Colby. She was, of course, very upset about the way he trashed her to the cameras but a lot calmer than I expected. I definitely think she blames Tina for Mitchell's and her boot with Keith a close second. Before she watched the show (which is after she's already cast her jury vote), Jerri seemed clueless about how Colby despised her. She thought her ouster was strategic. I suspect Nick and Alicia have told her some of the things said behind her back, but these came almost exclusively from Tina and Keith. Colby only trashed her to Tina, Keith, and the cameras. Jerri seems to have a soft spot for Colby (or maybe a hot, burning spot)even though she knows he screwed her over. To me, Colby's got Jerri's, Amber's, Nick's and Alicia's jury vote over everybody but Lis. Nick and Alicia have more in common with the young, athletic Colby than either Tina or Keith. Having said all this, Colby is on the jury after this episode unless he wins immunity or cuts the deal with Lis to vote off Keith. Plus the deal is useless if Keith wins immunity which is very likely if Colby doesn't. To get around taking Lis with him to the final two after promising her that he would, Colby would have to pull a Richard and lose immunity in the last round assuming that either Tina or Lis would prefer to go to jury with him rather than each other. He's smart enough to know that but can he keep up the Kelly and win immunity again.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-23-01, 04:26 AM (EST) 16. "RE: Why would Jerri vote for Colby over Tina???/" Thank you, Sleeeve--great job. Mumbo Jumbo, I absolutely agree with your very well articulated post. Jerri's payback will not be against Colby, and Colby is toast if Keith wins immunity next time, thus precluding Colby and Lis from taking out Keith, which could happen. I agree with those above who say that Lis should not be the target this week, and that they do discount her ability to win IC in the final round and so are willing to risk her making the F3. My post below is copied from the Colby/Amber thread because it probably should have gone here. (Apologies for repetition.) As everyone's aware, the upcoming vote is last chance to get a tie and boot one of the strongest males due to their former votes. I think Tina will make sure that happens. With Lis' vote alone, Tina could oust either Colby or Keith, whichever one loses immunity. If Colby wins immunity in the Final 3, she knows he's going to pick Keith to go up against, just as she hopes to do. Therefore I think Colby is Tina's choice to go, regardless of any prior alliance they may have formed. So, back to the tiebreaker--if it came down to 2-2 Keith vs. Colby, Keith would go. Therefore, if Colby goes it's probably not because Lis wins immunity; it's because Keith wins immunity. If Lis wins immunity, she will be the swing vote to either oust Keith with Colby or to join with Keith and Tina against C. (It seems to me she would vote against Keith as she has before, but maybe not.) So, in the end, whether or not the game plan that Colby discused--having an all Ogie F3--comes to pass depends, I think, on Tina, and how worried she is that she can't win the final immunity against the two IC champs, and whether she feels safe with the likelihood that she can't control whether she's in the F2. My guess is that she makes sure one of the men gets taken out. By the way, I'm sure it's been noted but I haven't seen mentioned that ALL of the IC's since the merge have been won by men. Burnett just has to throw one in that favors a woman before the end, and I'm surprised he hasn't before this, but I doubt the players are counting on that at this point. I imagine they all think Colby and Keith remain the biggest threats for IC. Lastly, I've been tending to the line of thought Vampkira expressed about Jerri and jury v. Tina. The very fact that Tina played so ruthlessly and has skated through without even a vote to date may backfire on her with the jury. Once booted, the jury members have the perspective to see how she manipulated them and got her way (and backstabbed, etc.) I think it's possible that Jerri would vote for Keith if necessary to punish Tina. Jerri says that she and Keith are simply incompatible personalities. She doesn't seem to hold that against him. Every time she discusses Tina she gets tense or emotional, and MB shows a reaction shot from her to each of Tina's comments at TC, but not to Keith's blathering. If Tina betrays Colby next time, then Colby could finally end up voting against Tina. Tina's a rat and a snake. Keith's just arrogant. So was Richard. In the end, that's not the worst sin, IMHO, but betrayal, that really gets the revenge juices pumping!   Top

MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 04-23-01, 03:03 PM (EST) 17. "RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation" I agree with just about everything you have to say other than your summary. >>Summary for Next Week >>T votes C (alt. K) >>K votes C (alt. L) >>C votes K (alt. T) >>L votes C (alt. K) The way I see it this is completely barring all immunity, and this is the way I see it and why I see it this way. Tina - I agree her first option is Colby, but I do not think that her alternate is Keith. I think her first alternate is Liz. I think everyone knows that Keith is the best person to have in the final 2, particularly Tina. I think she will do what she can to get him there with her. For Keith, I completely agree with your analysis. These seem like his most likely choices. For Colby, I agree that his first vote is probably for Keith, though at this point I am not so sure that he still wants Liz around either. You do not even have her as his second choice and I am not sure why. At this point I believe that they all know that Liz is the most dangerous person to be against in the final two, and I think that Colby wants to win. Tina would definitely not be his second choice, especially when it seems likely that no one else will vote for her. I think Primary is Keith but secondary would have to be Liz in this case. For Liz, I believe that her primary would be Keith and Secondary would be Colby. I say this because of her past voting patterns and more particularly because of Rodger's comment about wanting to see someone other than Keith win(you know that Liz and Rodger discussed that one beforehand). For that reason I think Liz still guns for Keith, but would probably like to see Colby gone as well. The only member of the tribe that I see as completely safe this week is Tina. I doubt that she gets a single vote at this point. She has put herself inthe perfect position to make the final three, since she has no previous votes, leaving her completely unvelnerable in a tie situation. I completely agree with your Final Jury votes analysis at this point, and for this reason I think that Liz is the most dangerous member and I believe that the tribe sees this. Also for that reason I believe that she is everyone's either primary or secondary choice to vote off this week.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-23-01, 04:25 PM (EST) 18. "RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation" LAST EDITED ON 04-23-01 AT 04:50 PM (EST) I agree with you, MD Skinner, that Tina's 2nd choice this week would be Lis, after Colby, to preserve Keith. Of course, one cannot bar all immunity from speculation, as someone will get it and that will define everyone's options. For example, if 1) Colby gets immunity, then Tina and Keith will no doubt vote for Lis, but that won't help them unless they can get Colby's vote for her. Colby wants to be in Final 2 with Keith to win, but I'm sure he would also feel more confident that he would make it past Final 3 if Keith were gone. C has to be worried that Tina will get him out at the Final Three. Clearly, Colby wants to face the jury with Keith, so Colby must hope to take out Tina if K/T/C get to Final 3 and he'll expect her to do the same to him, depending on who wins immunity. It's possible that if Keith won immunity in F3 he'd pick Tina over Colby, out of loyalty and because of past friction; therefore Colby's risk in keeping Keith around becomes higher and higher. If Colby wins another immunity, he should go to Lis and vote with her against Keith, who will lose the tie-breaker. 2) Keith wins immunity: he and Tina can and probably will boot Colby no matter whom Lis and Colby vote for, although they could target Lis. 3) Lis wins immunity: she and Colby can boot Keith, and Colby would be an idiot not to propose that strategy. Tina and Keith will want to boot Colby, but they must have Lis' vote. At this point, none of them could promise her anything except that she would make it to F3, which she would already have from winning IC, so Lis would be free to vote conscience. She will win against anyone with the jury, so she doesn't need to keep Keith, and would probably want to stop him right there while she has the chance. 4) Tina wins immunity: she still needs to ensure that Lis and Colby don't ally against Keith. She must secure either Lis' vote against Colby or Colby's against Lis. I would imagine Tina can get either one, but I think she would opt to boot Colby, knowing that if he wins immunity next time she'll be out. The two big factors next week are clearly 1)immunity, and 2)whether Lis and Colby unite against Keith. Because of the spoilers and the odds that this IC will finally give someone else a shot, I think Colby loses IC and he's out. Then it's either Tina/Lis or Tina/Keith for F2. In first case, everyone agrees Lis wins, which would fulfill MB's prediction that we like the outcome, and Jerri gets payback against Tina. The problem is, the above scenario doesn't truly constitute a fulfillment of Jerri's spoilers that she gets to exercise power. Even though Jerri's capacity for self-delusion seems immeasurable, how could anyone feel very powerful after lobbying against either Tina or Keith, if Lis is a candidate? Jerri would be merely preaching to the converted. Jerri's sense of power ought to come from a sense that she wielded influence in a tight race--a Richard/Kelly kind of contest, a Tina/Keith contest. Because everyone's already annoyed with Keith for his arrogance, Jerri would still have no reason to feel that she accomplished anything much by ranking on Keith. Her issues with Keith are the same as everyone else's at this point; she just discovered them on Day 1, whereas others took longer to get there. IMO, Jerri would feel challenged and therefore powerful only by trying to orchestrate teaching Tina a lesson: making all nice on the surface while manipulating and betraying alliances doesn't pay off in the end. Jerri would be busy telling the Kucha's about the Mitchell betrayal, about Mad Dog, then pointing to Amber and Colby, saying to R and L: "you think she's so nice, but look how she treated her own teammates and friends." That might resonate with the Kuchas, who stuck by their friends. Needless to say, just because Jerri tries doesn't mean she succeeds. I can see people voting the opposite from Jerri as they did from Susan--although we should keep in mind that everyone seems to like Jerri once she's out of the camp. At any rate, there's no evidence that Jerri knows the outcome, because the jury are almost certainly forbidden by MB to discuss their votes with each other once they were cast, and anyone could have changed their vote from any initial decision they announce to other jury members prior to the actual vote. I admit to hoping that Tina doesn't win and that her little foolproof strategy gets spoiled in the end, but I do believe the evidence suggests that Jerri goes after Tina. Although the more obvious scenario remains that Tina wins--Lis having gotten booted at 3rd place--I'm perversely betting on Keith. (Edited to remove some of the hanging chads. I should preview.)   Top

Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-23-01, 05:14 PM (EST) 19. "RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation" >because the jury are almost >certainly forbidden by MB to >discuss their votes with each >other once they were cast, >and anyone could have changed >their vote from any initial >decision they announce to other >jury members prior to the >actual vote. Jeff confirmed this in a radio interview -- their contracts are set up so that they could be sued if they discussed their votes afterwards. The final episode is supposed to be the first time any of them know the winner.   Top

MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 04-23-01, 05:48 PM (EST) 20. "RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation" >>The two big factors next week are clearly 1)immunity, and 2) >>whether Lis and Colby unite against Keith. I agree with virtually everything that you say other than number two right here. I think that the second biggest factor is whether or not Colby wants to win the game or get second place in the game. I think we all agree that Colby is the swing vote at this point, in almost every scenario other than Keith winning immunity. But I also believe that Colby knows for a fact that he would lose in the final two against Liz, and probably would not feel all that great about going into the final two against Tina. Colby also knows that if he can some how make it work so that he and Keith are in the final two, that he has a very real shot at winning the million. So with that being said, does Colby want to play for second place and vote Keith off, or does he want to go fro broke and keep Keith in at all costs. We saw some of his thought process last episode when he discussed whether or not he would like to see the "deserving" people go further or whether he would like to see those that he has a better chance against go further. Well, last week he chose the latter. What will he do this week? Well I have no idea, but I believe that Colby is one of those people who sees second place as merely the first loser. And I would bet he does not want to be the loser in any way. So with that being said, I think that it is highly possible(not probably, mind you, but at least possible) that he will do whatever he can to keep Keith in the game. And quite frankly it may get him voted off.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-23-01, 06:50 PM (EST) 21. "RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation" Yes, MD, I do pretty much agree with that. Colby plays to win, although he also shows that he cares about the money, and second place is probably enough more money than 3rd to make a difference to a young auto customizer from Texas. If Lis won immunity, though, Colby would have no choice but to try to take Keith out. As many have analyzed, Tina's virtually invulnerable this round. It is possible though that Colby's conflict between good guys/bad guys could combine with this: you can't get to the Final 2 unless you're in good shape to control your fate at the Final 3 stage. Lis staying instead of Keith gives Colby much more control over that outcome. As I said above, he then becomes Tina's first choice for Final 2. It's not clear to me that Colby thinks he has no shot against Tina; it's just that he would obviously prefer Keith. Colby can argue to the jury that he's more honest and straightforward, and since the jury has been fed, they will have gotten over the envy about reward meals and possibly be ready to respect a great competitor who won so many challenges. It's all moot though, if Keith wins immunity, or if Colby loses immunity and Tina gets Lis to vote with her rather than for the player Lis thinks is too arrogant. Colby will be off to bond with Nick at the ranch.   Top

MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 04-24-01, 12:20 PM (EST) 24. "RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation" >>and second place is probably enough more money than 3rd to >>make a difference to a young auto customizer from Texas. I am pretty sure that second place money is quite a bit better than third place, you are definitely right about that. but I am not so sure that this is going to make a huge difference to Colby at this point. I think that virtually all of the survivors are thinking of the million right now, and particularly Colby. He is giving it his all on every challenge and in every aspect of the game right now, and I do not believe that he is doing that in order to get as far in the game as he can. I believe he is doing that because he wants to win this thing. I know that he feels Keith is without a doubt his best shot at a win, and I think we can all agree on that, and quite frankly at this point I do not think that he will target Keith, though I could be horribly wrong. I think Colby would see that if he leaves Liz in the game at this point, then it is possible that she could win the last immunity challenge, and if so he has zero chance of winning it all. I think Tina and Keith bot see Colby as the huge threat because he is winning every challenge, but would also love to get Liz out now, since she will beat either of them in the final. And right now I am starting to belileve that even Liz will want to vote Colby out as soon as possible, because even she must be tired of him winning all of these immunities. If you think about it, she may have voted for him any of the past 3 weeks, but he never gave her that option. >>It is possible though that Colby's conflict between good >>guys/bad guys could combine with this: you can't get to the >>Final 2 unless you're in good shape to control your fate at >>the Final 3 stage. Lis staying instead of Keith gives Colby >>much more control over that outcome. I agree, and this may be a deciding factor in his decision, but I have to say that even if Colby has a good opportunity of controlling his second place finish, I think it is as likely if not more likely that Colby would rather have slightly less control(keeping Keith who is a slight threat) and still have a chance at winning, than for him to have total control of what he may see as guaranteed 2nd place. >>As I said above, he then >>becomes Tina's first choice for Final 2. It's not clear to me >>that Colby thinks he has no shot against Tina; it's just that >>he would obviously prefer Keith. Again you are right about this, and I am sure that he probably sees it that he at least has a shot against Tina. but Colby believes that he CAN win against Keith. I think he knows that and I think that he will gear himself towards that. >>Colby can argue to the jury >>that he's more honest and straightforward, and since the jury >>has been fed, they will have gotten over the envy about reward >>meals and possibly be ready to respect a great competitor who >>won so many challenges. They may do that, you never really know. I certainly never would have guessed that Rich would win last year, but they voted for who had played the game the best, and that was definitely Rich.   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-23-01, 08:53 PM (EST) 22. "RE: Rampant Strategy Speculation" >I agree with just about everything >you have to say other >than your summary. Thank you for your comments, principal... I'm not even sure I agree that the summary will play out the way I describe... Your primary disagreement appears to be that Lizzy should be a target for all of the Ogakor... if not as their primary choice, than at least as their alternate... Unfortunately, this is not statistically correct... Check out my post, here, that explains why mathematically it would be a poor decision for Tina or Colby to target Lizzy, even as a second option: http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=1350&forum=DCForumID2&omm=3 I also reiterate my closing in the original post: ====================== Thus, if everyone plays to their best strategy, Colby is out (unless he wins immunity in which case Keith goes)... but that's a big if... judging by what we've seen of these contestants, strategy is not their forte... so who knows what might happen... ====================== These people have shown little skill at manipulating the odds in their favor... I think that Tina is by far the smartest person in the game, so if anyone can figure out what gives them the best odds to win, it's her... but who knows where we'll end up at the end of this week... we have a lot of speculation, but relatively few true spoilers to build on this week... it's gonna be interesting to see what happens as Thursday nears...   Top

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