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GG 142 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 04-20-01, 05:49 PM (EST) "MB Has Slipped Up!?!" Below, verbatim, is the last two paragraphs of the episode 12 summary from the CBS site: <<<Meanwhile, Tina asked Rodger whether he or Elisabeth should go, if it came down to a choice between the two. Rodger determined, "Elisabeth needs the money more than I do, with her mother being sick and all....I should go before she does". He also acknowledged about his dear friend, "I think about Elisabeth as much as I do about other members in my family. I have basically watched out for her like a father would have." And so in the end, it did come down to Colby's vote, which he cast for Rodger, who graciously accepted the tribe's verdict as tears streamed from Elisabeth's eyes, leaving Colby Donaldson, Keith Famie, Elisabeth Filarski and Tina Wesson as the final four survivors.>>> The revealing aspect here is the assertion that Rodger's boot came down to Colby's vote, not Keith's and/or Tina's. Why though? Let's examine this further: We're being told that Tina was going to vote for ROdger as a result of their discussion (paragraph 1). Fair enough. But if Colby's vote was the tie-breaker, what does that suggest about Keith's vote not factoring in here? There is no reference in the episode of his input or way of thinking. Yet MB is effectively saying that him going along with Tina is a given. Yes, it is an easy assumption to make, not least because of the Ogies sticking together and one we've all speculated about it for weeks now anyway. But the fact we do know (or think we know), does not preclude the possibility, however remote, of it not being the case. It is one thing to say that Colby decided in the end to vote along old tribal lines despite him not being directly repsonsible for Amber's ousting. It is quite another though to categorically state that it was his vote which sealed Rodger's fate. So what we have is an unwitting admission that a mini-alliance exists between Keith and Tina. Hardly surprising but that's not the point. What is, is confirmation, de facto, that Colby has become an independent. Of course, MB may simply be linking Colby having wavered after his spat with Keith and therefore, could have voted for him instead. But it only reinforces him being on his own and consider also that Keith talked about the rice incident possibly hurting him. Regardless, it doesn't change the fact that Keith still had to align with Tina first for Colby to have the casting vote. Put another way, if Colby was involved in the decision process as part of the Ogathree, then his vote is no more or less crucial than that of the other two. Yet, his vote has been singled out. MB is telling us that Colby is on his own, not a maybe, not a likely, but DEFINITELY. No one's going to persuade me that MB won't cling to even the most tenuous thread rather than concede anything, even the most obvious - K/T alliance included. That would fly in the face of all his character traits. So he slipped up. How terrible! <emphasise on sarcasm> To my mind, this is a spoiler as to what happens next. And that is either Colby or Keith goes. 1) Colby will gun for Keith. He's already stated that his game with him is over. The reason he didn't vote for him instead of Rodger though is simple. He needed leverage in a final four and Keith provides it. Accumulated votes would see Colby gone in a 2-2 scenario against anyone else if Keith had been booted previously. Rodger and Liz would have seen to that if he failed to win IC. 2) Even if he wasn't certain, Colby would have been fairly confident of Rodger and Liz's vote for Keith, ensuring his past total would be surpassed. 3) Now, we're all assuming that taking Keith into the final two gives the other survivors the best shot at the million dollars. Clearly, Tina has aligned herself accordingly and so we can be say with some confidence that she will not vote for him in the next TC. That means, either Lis or Colby would go. It also means that Tina needs to get the one she's prepared to spare on her side because it otherwise puts Keith in jeopardy... (see 5)) 4)...Liz and Colby could conceivably gang up on Keith. True, you would have to believe that Colby really meant that his game with Keith is over and that Lis and Tina are much more deserving of the money. Likewise Liz who's comments at TC were about Keith's arrogance etc. They appeared genuine enough to override the apparent logic of taking him in a final two. Her character suggests it and I believe that she believes, she would, out of a sense of integrity, take her chances with Tina and Colby. From Colby's perspective, he would also have a better chance of making the last two, if only because it breaks up Tina and Keith. In a final three, Colby would have to win IC. If not, either Tina or Keith will get rid of him. But with Lis around, the dyanamic is very different. Tina winning IC would in all likelihood see him through because Lis would be harder to beat. Liz might think that way about Tina, though admittedly, it's close. Still, in this scenario, he's got a probable 2 in 3 chance, whereas with Keith and Tina he's got none unless he wins IC. 5) Apply the phrasing from the summary and add our knowledge that there will be a betrayal, the only thing that fits is Tina voting for Colby (in tandem with Keith). To be absolutely certain, she could either lie to Colby that they get rid of Liz or alternatively, convince Lis that Colby is the bigger threat over Keith. Notice that all the above scenarios point to Keith or Colby being the most vulnerable. Lis is far from safe too but the evidence for her going is in comaprative terms, not as compelling. I keep coming back to Colby for this. If he votes for her, he puts himself up against Keith and Tina in the final three. Barring a IC success, that's the end of the road for him. But with Lis, it gives him a shot of having her side with him over Tina, as would be true the other way round. Bottom line? Does Colby gamble that he will (MUST) win IC in a final three and therefore take Keith with him, making him overwhelming favorite with the jury? Or is the lure of a better chance to reach the last two but with a more difficult opponent to beat there more attractive (if Keith goes)? I'll leave you with one more thing to consider. Going head-to-head with Keith in the final two is prima facie, a sound strategy, the logic being the jury will vote for you over a less likeable/more hated opponent. But in doing so, the jury might be intrepret that as being presumptuous - it becomes about the other's failings over your own contribution. You're telling the jury not that 'I deserve it' but rather, 'the other doesn't'. Leaves room for retribution. Could backfire. So why not dab in reverse psychology and take a more worthy opponent instead of Keith. Some jury members might score you brownie points for that. I'll admit that it's unlikely but it appeals on some moral level.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    Colby was the swing vote AyatollahKhomeini 04-20-01 1    It was on the Early Show that Rodge... anotherkim 04-20-01 3        RE: It was on the Early Show that R... Conspiracy Jim 04-23-01 15    RE: Colby was the swing vote BaquaR13 04-21-01 11  RE: MB Has Slipped Up!?! kirin 04-20-01 2  That's how the show was edited sleeeve 04-20-01 4  It's still not clear cut though.. GG 04-20-01 5    RE: It's still not clear cut though... Loree 04-20-01 6        RE: It's still not clear cut though... munson 04-20-01 7    RE: It's still not clear cut though... kirin 04-20-01 8  RE: MB Has Slipped Up!?! RudyRules 04-20-01 9    RE: MB Has Slipped Up!?! Ptaz 04-21-01 10        RE: MB Has Slipped Up!?! RudyRules 04-21-01 13  Colby Dilemma IslandFever 04-21-01 12    It's been this way for a while Minstrel 04-22-01 14

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 04-20-01, 06:00 PM (EST) 1. "Colby was the swing vote" I can't give you a source on this right now, but I read today in some thread or another that Rodger said (maybe on the Early Show?) that he went to Colby and told Colby that he and Elisabeth were going to vote for Keith -- Colby could do whatever he wanted. Ultimately, then, it did come down to Colby's vote ... and he sided with his fellow Ogakor members. So Rodger knew (from his chat with Tina?) how she and Keith were voting.   Top

anotherkim 14420 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-20-01, 07:19 PM (EST) 3. "It was on the Early Show that Rodger said he tried to get Colby to switch sides,so to speak.....M" and I think MB simply tried to play up the whole Colby versus Keith thing to keep people in suspense. Based on the way the show played out, Colby did cast the deciding vote since he was the only one who had considered changing sides. Colby has to keep winning immunity or he is a goner, IMHO. Keith and Tina are safe til the end as long as they can boot Colby and Elisabeth.   Top

Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 04-23-01, 12:29 PM (EST) 15. "RE: It was on the Early Show that Rodger said he tried to get Colby to switch sides,so to speak.....M" I disagree about Colby having to win immunity. If Keith does not win immunity then he is the most easily removed survivor left. Since we know that Liz and Roger told Colby last week that they were voting for Keith and that he could do what he wants then why should we believe that this week will be any different. If Keith does not win immunity then Liz may very well inform Colby that her intentions are to vote for Keith and that he can do what he wants. Now we know that Colby would like to win the million dollars and he knows that it is auto-win versus Keith in the final 2, so he may not wish to remove Keith. But, if Colby does not win immunity then he may very well realize that Tina and Keith may decide to get rid of him, that being the logic then he may very well decide to go along with Liz and oust Keith. It makes sense. This is of course barring two things... 1. Keith does not win immunity. If he does then Colby will hope to stay with Tina and Keith and remove Liz. 2. Colby does not win immunity again. If he has no threat of getting the boot then he will likely stay aligned with Tina and Keith and hope to win the final immunity. Again this is due to wanting to be in the final 2 with Keith as that is an auto-win for him, and we know that he knows it. So, your logic in that he must win immunity is flawed because as long as Keith does not win immunity then it is very possible that Keith goes. Conspiracy Jim "Ya, sure we went to the moon"?!!!   Top

BaquaR13 1336 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 04-21-01, 02:00 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Colby was the swing vote" It was the early show Ak. I beleive that is why his vote was made into such a big deal. Rodger said that he, "went to Colby in a last effort, and told him that he isnt ready to leave yet, and that he and Elisabeth were probably going to be voting for Keith."   Top

kirin 30 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 04-20-01, 06:22 PM (EST) 2. "RE: MB Has Slipped Up!?!" >And so in the end, it did come down to Colby's vote, which he cast for Rodger, who graciously accepted the tribe's verdict as tears streamed from Elisabeth's eyes, leaving Colby Donaldson, Keith Famie, Elisabeth Filarski and Tina Wesson as the final four survivors.>>> I don't want to sound like I am shooting down any theories, but thought I should bring up the fact that Colby's vote (distinctive block lettering) was the last one read at that TC. Could it be that is what is being referred to here? It sounds like a transcript of the episode to me. Hmm...I guess I am shooting down this theory aren't I? Kirin   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-20-01, 07:38 PM (EST) 4. "That's how the show was edited" I have extensive journalistic training in my background, and let me assure you that these articles were written by someone with journalistic experience. They follow every single rule of journalism to the "T"... as if someone was copying the style directly out of a journalism text book. The summaries always follow how the episode is edited to play out... Colby, on his way to TC, said he wasn't sure yet which way he was gonna vote... in other words, he was the swing vote... It has been my opinion, from reading the summaries that MB has hired a journalist to watch the episode and write the summary for him... that way, the summary will exactly fit the story of the show, and nothing extra will be given away... granted this is purely speculation, but it would be a smart thing for him to do, and the style of writing is so strikingly like that of a reporter that I cannot believe that it was written by a screen writer or the webmasters... Sorry to shoot down your theory...   Top

GG 142 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 04-20-01, 08:39 PM (EST) 5. "It's still not clear cut though.." Ayak, that's fair enough. I'm still not sure though if that changes my take on this. Even allowing for the likelihood Rodger was coached on what he could/could not say, MB couldn't know for sure he WOULD mention this aspect in dispatches. Remember, the summary was voted before KJ's appearance on the Early Show. Also, if it's true that Rodger informed Colby about his and Liz's vote for Keith, it surely only lends weight to my arguement? That Tina and Keith are an alliance and was recognised accordingly by the two Kuchas who went to him independently. In any case, why wasn't this shown? I mean, Rodger and Liz voting for Keith was utterly predictable anyway. I guess what I'm trying to articulate is that Colby's vote for Rodger was made not out of loyalty to his Ogakor tribe mates, but because his own situation demanded it (the reasons for which I have outlined in the initial post). I may be gullible about this but I'm willing to take Colby's assertion at face value: that his game with Keith is over. By extension, this also means that he isn't going to allow him to have an influence on his fate by association with Tina - it should be obvious by now that Tina's plan is to take Keith into the last two. I think Liz knows it too. So if those two vote to oust Keith, they can ensure a more level playing field for themselves. It wouldn't be if Tina and Keith are together. Kirin/Sleeve, if it was just a transcript, it still doesn't fully explain the emphasis or for that matter, the need to. What we're being told IMHO is that a)Keith and Tina vote as one, so to speak and b)Colby's thinking process was separate/different even if it reached the same outcome. There is no need for MB to reinforce that observation and make it more obvious. Wouldn't it be in his interests to let us believe that Colby was sticking to old tribal lines and leave it at that. Why alert us to the possibility that it could be otherwise. If the transcript had simply stated Colby staying true to Ogakor, I wouldn't have given it a second thought. Colby said he wasn't sure which way he was going to side. I accept that it therefore makes him the swing vote...of sorts. But we weren't shown to a certainty that Keith and Tina were going to vote for Rodger either. Just because Rodger made his plea to Tina didn't mean that she would agree. According to the transcript, Tina posed the question to Rodger as a 'what if' scenario. That's different from saying, sorry KJ, it has to be you or Liz. If you recall, Tina tried that approach with Liz a few episodes back, telling her that the sensible thing would be for Ogakor to vote for her or Rodger. In the event, Jerri got the boot instead. So Tina and Keith's vote for Rodger wasn't a gimme. You'll have to convince me in this context why their bloc vote was any less decisive than Colby's. By all means shoot my theory, but you'll understand that I've got to give it some mileage ain't throwing in the towel that quickly!!!! And even if you disagree with the first part, I would like to hear people's thoughts on my subsequent speculation in the thread i.e. what happens next episode in terms of Keith and Colby being the in the most danger.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-20-01, 09:18 PM (EST) 6. "RE: It's still not clear cut though.." MB always wants us to doubt how everyone will really vote. Keith and Colby had the fight. The audience is going to wonder if they will vote against each other. Colby wins immunity so Keith can't vote against him. But Colby can still vote against Keith. Will he? Oh the suspense... Then Colby sticks with the Ogakor alliance and votes out Rodger. I think the safest person now is Keith. Everyone wants to be in the final 2 with him. Colby and Tina will vote against each other before they vote out Keith. They need Keith so they can have someone to beat in that final vote.   Top

munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 04-20-01, 10:23 PM (EST) 7. "RE: It's still not clear cut though.." >I think the safest person now >is Keith. Everyone wants >to be in the final >2 with him. Colby >and Tina will vote against >each other before they vote >out Keith. They need >Keith so they can have >someone to beat in that >final vote. I agree, Loree, that Keith, as well as Tina, seem a pretty safe bet for the final 3. And Liz is only in danger if Colby wins immunity. Again. But he won't. Enough is Enough.   Top

kirin 30 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 04-20-01, 11:15 PM (EST) 8. "RE: It's still not clear cut though.." GG, I think there was some definite strategizing going on Colby's part. He was smart to do so, no matter how much we (or at least me!) love Rodger, and he's smart to be worried. The only part of your theory I was shooting down was that MB somehow screwed up. It was obvious that Colby was going to be the swing vote. Like every other episode, the suspense was drawn out as long as possible, and therefore it only made sense for his vote to be shown last. And since it was shown last, it was mentioned as the "tiebreaker" that made Liz cry. No great slip up that I see. Kirin   Top

RudyRules 8360 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-20-01, 11:50 PM (EST) 9. "RE: MB Has Slipped Up!?!" I believe that Colby made the smart move, he needs Keith around for the final 2. Lis and Tina both would most likely beat either Keith or Colby in the final 2. Where does that leave us: 1. Keith and Colby vote against Lis (or Tina if Lis has immunity), they need to take each other to the final 2 to have a good shot at winning. Neither of them can beat Lis in a final 2 pairing and either one would probably lose to Tina in the finals. 2. Lis votes against Colby (or Keith if Colby has immunity). Lis should want a match up against one of the two men, she DEFINITELY beats them in a one on one match up but Tina has an outside shot against her. 3. Tina is in an interesting position: She SHOULD team up with Lis and vote out either Colby or Keith, then she and the remaining Kucha vote out Lis in the next round (unless Lis gets immunity - unlikely) because NO ONE wants to go up against Lis in the final 2. Tina then gets into the finals where she can prevail against Keith and probably against Colby. Her other option is to stay with the alliance and vote off Lis and pray that she gets immunity in the final 3 match up - otherwise she's gone. That's the way I see it anyway.   Top

Ptaz 29 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 04-21-01, 12:20 PM (EST) 10. "RE: MB Has Slipped Up!?!" I think just to hedge her bets, Tina is going to attempt to lead Liz to believe that the two of them should team up and get rid of Colby. Then when Colby's gone, if Liz doesn't win immunity, Tina will pick Keith for F2 and Liz will be screwed.   Top

RudyRules 8360 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-21-01, 08:54 PM (EST) 13. "RE: MB Has Slipped Up!?!" Ptaz, That is EXACTLY what Tina SHOULD do, whether she will or not remains to be seen.   Top

IslandFever 205 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-21-01, 06:44 PM (EST) 12. "Colby Dilemma" Colby said during the last show, do I want end with someone I can beat (Keith) in the end or do I want to end up with someone who I would feel good about them winning the money (Rodger). In the end he went with the hopes of ending up with Keith. Taking Keith to the jury would almost be as good as Jerri. But I don't think he will make it to the jury.   Top

Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 04-22-01, 10:55 AM (EST) 14. "It's been this way for a while" Really, it has been this way for a while. Ogakor agreed from day one about the merger voting. Then add the Kimmi E2 tattletale on Jeff. That set up Alicia's fall and a two person advantage. Since then, we have seen it alternate from up two to up one to up two and so on. Kucha could not be allowed back in the game even up. We know Rodger was given two votes but there was a choice in E12 between Rodger and Elisabeth. Tina carried the information to Keith and Kucha had to hit Colby because of his overwhelming strength in challenges which now, averages over a challenge win in every episode. Colby knew he was the target, at least from Kucha and whether K/T went to Colby or not with their vote intention really wouldn't matter to me if I were Colby except that as Colby, I need to know which Kucha to vote for. However, Colby said the "batting order thing" and probalby would have guessed Rodger anyway. The key is that I don't think the Ogakors believe they can count on the jury to vote tribal lines. At least Nick seems firm against Keith, and Jerri seems to not want to vote for Keith or maybe even Tina. So one concept that may be working to Colby's favor is that he is counting on portraying the Outplay portion as the strongest aspect if he makes the final two, which I don't think happens anyway. I think there's enough storyline that we get a final 3 all Ogakor, not to mention Ranch pics floating around that seem to validate Elisabeth is the next to go. I then see Keith or maybe Tina winning immunity and Colby getting axed.   Top

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