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"The Path To Victory: Spoilers & Analysis"
SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-03-01, 06:40 PM (EST)
 
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"The Path To Victory: Spoilers & Analysis" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-03-01 AT 06:43 PM (EST)I figured that due to the heavy content of this post, I'd make a new thread rather than try to append it to one of the already-large composite threads going around. Please give your comments on the following analysis. Basically, I try to chart each player's path to victory, or what I would do if I were in each player's place. The scale used is EXCELLENT, GOOD, FAIR, POOR, NONE. Spoilers mentioned are non-inclusive, in other words, there may be more that I left out. The first thing I realized is that we're really starting to get low in numbers. There are seven people left. Once it's down to the Final Three, the Final Immunity Challenge (FIC) will pretty much determine things. So we're dealing with a right small window already. Amber - if she has the brains to realize it, she's in control of her destiny.
Spoilers - nobody (esp. Jerri) talking to/with/about her, Source Code Theory, Aboriginal Pictures, "all Female finale".
a) vote with the Ogakor one more time to eliminate Nick (an IC threat). If Nick has immunity, vote with the Ogies to oust Rodger or Lis.
b) vote with the GAA or the Kucha to eliminate Colby.
c) Then she must decide who to take into the Final Three. Her best bets are probably Keith and Tina, so she votes with them to boot Lis and Rodger. I don't think she'd beat Tina, but by winning FIC, she can place herself against Keith.
Winning chances - EXCELLENT. Colby - has a big hurdle coming up, but if he gets by it, he might be okay.
Spoilers - Nick's buddy, recent photo and audio, weight loss.
a) Vote off Nick next. SHOULD vote off Lis!
b) Vote off Kuchas. Means convincing Amber not to turn at this point!!!
c) Vote with Amber to vote off Keith or Tina. Probably Tina is best, but may have to be Keith due to tiebreakers. Yes, Colby has more votes NOW, but maybe not then.
d) Win Final Immunity, go against Keith in Final Two.
Winning chances - POOR Keith - has a tough road to the Final Two.
Spoilers - Aboriginal pictures, book release.
a) vote off Nick.
b) Vote to get Colby out.
c) Now Keith has a tough choice: Get Lis booted? or TINA? A final Four of Amber, Keith, Rodger and Lis has been discussed, but Keith has votes and Amber is Jerri's buddy. But with Tina it's also bad? Rodger, Amber, Tina, and Keith. Both Tina and Rodger have good reasons to keep Keith to the Final Three. But if Keith does not get voted off in the Final Four, he still has a tough choice against any of the others in Final Jury. He makes the Final Four, but no further.
As I see it now - KEITH CANNOT WIN. Winning chances - NONE. Tina - would appear to be in total control at this time BUT would be very susceptible to defections or timely immunities. She also needs to keep Colby broken to her fist. BUT she can go into final jury against almost anyone.
Spoilers - hungry going home, "all female finale"
So she:
1) votes Nick off (IC threat)
2) waxes Colby (IC threat)
3) Must keep Amber with her and vote off Lis or Rodger (keeping them separated. In truth, it'd be better to vote for Lis, but I'm thinking Lis wins an IC or two around here).
4) Lis or Rodger, whichever is left, burn. If that person wins IC, burn Keith.
5) Win Final Immunity, go against Amber or Keith. A K/T final leaves Jerri with an unhappy choice and is likely Tina's best shot.
Winning chances - GOOD to EXCELLENT.
Lis - if the spoiler is right, she's going to win those badly needed ICs.
Spoilers - "kicks butt in challenges", Source Code Theory, "all Female finale", possible picture evidence, not talked too much to/about, tells her friends not to watch.
1) Can do nothing as Nick is busted. God help Lis if Nick wins immunity! Then she needs to get Amber and/or Tina to help her out and do away with Rodger.
2) Happily join the team that ousts Colby. See No. 1 above if Colby wins IC.
3) Now she needs to get Amber to her side (which may be good for Amber also). Winning some ICs here help her tremendously. If Amber does NOT defect, then unfortunately, Rodger is going to go, especially if Lis wins IC. That may be best for Lis's winning chances although she'll not likely ever cast a vote for Rodger. If Amber defects, then Lis has a clear path to victory, voting off Keith and Tina. Else, she'll still need an IC OR a defection to get Keith out. Then the Final IC determines it all.
Winning chances - GOOD.
Nick - I will be blunt. Nick must win immunity every time OR Kucha must regain control, and Nick will still need to win ICs.
Spoilers - recent Colby's buddy information, illness information, Jerri's buddy.
1) Win IC, hope that they vote Colby off. If they don't, Nick must literally win every Immunity to the last. But who can he go up against and win? Only Keith and MAYBE Amber, as far as I can see.
2) If they DO vote Colby off, then what can he still do? If it's an all Kucha final, does anyone besides VampKira think Nick can win against either Rodger or Lis? I thought not. The only other scenario is for Nick to try to have Keith be available in Final Four as the last Ogie. But Keith is the one who has to go in a 3-3 tie, since he is the only one with votes. So he needs to swing Amber over (seeing that convincing Tina is unlikely) and vote off Tina, but THEN needs to get a fellow Kucha waxed (if Amber goes he still has the Lis/Rodger team to beat). THAT infers a betrayal, and unless he wins IC, the three left will gang up and oust him. So as I said, he needs to win virtually every IC to have a chance. Ergo...
As I see it now - NICK CANNOT WIN. Winning chances - NONE. Rodger - He has his chances, albeit slim ones.
Spoilers - "rained all the time" commentary, one spoiler, from some board or newspaper, predicted Rodger to win, he and Lis are closer in real life than the show comment by another contestant, Jaguar spoiler, weight loss.
1) Like Nick, he must hope that he or Nick wins immunity and that somebody decides to wax Colby immediately.
2) Vote with all the Kuchas for Keith (has votes in 3-3 tiebreak). Would Nick agree? We've shown why he shouldn't, but maybe Amber would (Jerri's revenge!) so he needs to get her on his side.
3) Vote off Tina, then Amber. Yes, he really should see to it that Lis gets waxed, but is there anyone out there that thinks he'll do that to Lis? I thought not.
4) If he and Lis were to make some pact that the IC winner will vote off the loser so that the winner has the best shot at the $1million, I could see that. Otherwise, Lis and Rodger must realise that they'll HAVE TO VOTE THE OTHER OFF and go up against Nick in the Final Two (in which they'll win). If Nick wins Final IC, I think he takes Rodger with him, but Rodger wins.
So if Rodger gets to Final Three (and I don't see him doing it without other Kuchas there), then he or Lis wins.
Winning chances - POOR to FAIR. Okay, that's it. By the way, I'm holding with my PTTE:
Alicia => Jerri => Nick => Colby => Rodger => Keith => Tina => Amber => Lis.
I do not believe Nick will win immunity, but if he does, I think RODGER goes in his place, then Colby then Nick and on to the Final Four. Tina will save Lis for her (Tina's) own reasons. If (after Nick is gone) Colby wins immunity, Rodger then Colby. If Colby wins IC again, Keith then Colby, etc. Edited for spelling, grammar, and clarification. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged Save the drama for yo mama, and POST!
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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04-03-01, 07:13 PM (EST)
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1. "Superman, We need an official "PPTE" Voting Thread !" |
Dawg, I'm with you for most of it but I have Tina and Keith flipped in my "PTTE"; that is "Picks to the End",right?That brings me to the point of my post: We need to have Superman start the "Official" "PPTE" thread. We all have got the uncontrolable urge to go there, so we should all take our best shot on the "Official" thread. Then we can go back to it later and see who has "bragging rights"! Keep it clean and simple...7 names in boot order, to the end. Then after each remaining show we can list who's still in the running: Who's "PTTE" is still in tact! What does everyone think? Lay our cards on the table?
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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-03-01, 07:26 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Superman, We need an official "PPTE" Voting Thread !" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-03-01 AT 07:28 PM (EST)Yes... and the 'keep it simple and neat' format is a must! Maybe even as simple as the leters and slashes notation as the title of the post: N/R/L/A/C/T/K Everyone would, of course, be starting with IC in the week in which the post occured. I am assuming that Superman would be starting a new thread each week this on a weekly basis, just like the vote thread. eg: PPTE - Starting EP10 That way you could compare and contrast at a glance. That way people could comment inside their post to their hearts content but the heart of the matter is displayed right in the title. One would hope that the thread would be mercilessly purged of any posts with verbiage in the title!  IceCat
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-03-01, 08:28 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Superman, We need an official "PPTE" Voting Thread !" |
Well folks, I posted my PTTE (it's "Prediction"-To-The-End, btw) before Alicia was waxed, and I'm sticking to it (for now).If y'all want to start a thread of PTTEs, be my guest, but I hope they won't be like voting where you don't reply. Part of the reason I posted this in a new thread was a) to get replies and b) to avoid some of the threads with 55 messages (and therefore mine would be adding to the clutter or get lost in said clutter). *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged "If I were perfect, I'd run for God." -- Corporal Maxwell Q. Klinger, 4077th MASH
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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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04-03-01, 10:35 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Superman, We need an official "PPTE" Voting Thread !" |
The problem with this is when Nick doesn't go this week, there won't be a single person left in the PPTE! 
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bondt007 3413 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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04-04-01, 03:45 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Superman, We need an official "PPTE" Voting Thread !" |
Opps... sorry wrong thread.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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04-03-01, 08:00 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: The Path To Victory: Spoilers & Analysis" |
SurvivinDawg I agree with most of what you stated. But I do think Keith can win it. I definitely think he will be in the final 3. Rodger will go before Keith. I don't really believe the Red Herring Code spoiler. And we know Keith can win IC. I think Nick, Colby and Rodger go in that order. Then Keith is left alone with the females to battle for the IC. He has a good chance at them. Plus Tina might be content to keep him around thinking he is less liked than her. She would rather be up against Keith than Liz in the final.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-03-01, 09:59 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: The Path To Victory: Spoilers & Analysis" |
Bebo I think most people now assume that the Kuchas know Keith has at least one vote. He stayed on that post a long time and then asked Tina to get down and said he needed the Immunity. So it should be obvious to Kucha that Keith had vote(s) and Tina didn't. But I doubt that anyone has actually told them how many votes. Unless an Ogakor member wants to let it slip to hurt Keith in the future.
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-04-01, 11:16 AM (EST)
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12. "Didn't miss, just forgot" |
Sorry! Had a brain fade yesterday afternoon because I hadn't had enough Doritos.
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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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04-03-01, 09:36 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: The Path To Victory: Spoilers & Analysis" |
Dawg-Nice summary... I don't agree with it all, but well thought out! Let's see... I don't buy Amber having a good chance at the money... a good chance at the final 2.. YES... the money... nope. At least right now she's got that Jerri stink to her which is a negative to most people who would be jury dutying. Remember all you need is 4 votes from the jury...
A/T final T (L,R,C,K)
A/K final K (T,C,R,L)
A/C final C (T,K,J,Al)
A/N final N (Al,L,R,C)
A/R final R (Al,L,N,K)
A/L final... A (K,T,C,J) or L (Al,L,N,J) I agree Colby's chance is slim... but I think he would do well in any inter-ogre final 2 matchup and might not do badly with a kucha... assuming Amber forgives him... which would have to happen in order for him to make it final 2 anyway. I think Keith probably wins against Amber and no one else. Nick could win if kucha somehow takes control (ie Colby/Amber gone in ep10), and then he could make final 3 without continuous IC wins. Tina actually has problems winning, against anyone but Keith or Amber... and I'm kinda iffy on Amber!
T/K final T (L,R,Am,J)
T/C final C (J,Am,Al,N)
T/A final T (L,R,C,K)
T/N final N (J,R,L,Al)
T/R final R (J,L,Al,N)
T/L final L (J,R,Al,N) Lis probably wins against anyone... except maybe Rodger
L/R final L (C,N,Al) R (T,K) Am & J ? ... hum... that's my thoughts on your's... I'll try and put one of my own together so you can dissect it
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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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04-04-01, 09:51 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: The Path To Victory: Spoilers & Analysis" |
SD-Good post, and I think the time is to right to begin formulating our ideas based on spoilers and basic analysis of players at this point in the game. The PTTE is fun, and your choices are impressive. I'm with you through most of it. The problem I have is once in the final four. The spoilers pretty much disolve at the point, because so many of them (like weight and ranch friends, etc.) are time related and become meaningless at that point. Immunity becomes everything. The next three to go will be Nick, Colby and Rodger in that order. I'm very comfortable with those choices. Then taking it into final two scenarios (my little black book is reduced to six possibilities) the vote prediction is precarious because we don't know the events surrounding 5 out of 7 jury members boots. So I've resisted thinking that far in advance. There are a few matchups that SEEM obvious now - Liz beats Keith, Tina beats Keith, Liz beats Amber - but my other three are almost impossible to predict: Keith/Amber, Tina/Amber, Tina/Liz. So to add to the mix - while qualifying that this is more speculative than I am comfortable with - here's my PTTE. If someone starts it is a new thread, I'll post there. Nick->Colby->Rodger->Liz->Tina->Keith->Amber alternate (Liz wins immunity toward the end) Nick->Colby->Rodger->Amber->Tina->Keith->Liz
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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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04-04-01, 01:45 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: The Path To Victory: Spoilers & Analysis" |
Wow Loree.......our theories are very close (the way I see it the vote is split 3/3 with Nick being deciding vote) AND we're neck and neck in the whore score as well!
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-04-01, 02:40 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: The Path To Victory: Spoilers & Analysis" |
P2S - I believe it would be a very tight vote. But I am leaning towards Keith because he has been out and in the public and hanging around with ex-Survivors. Amber seems to be hiding and pouting. Amber is almost Kelly-like in her behavior. And I think she will step on alot of toes getting to that final 2. Keith already seems friendly with Rodger and Liz. But until we know who & how they get to that final it is hard to know who they will upset bad enough to lose the vote. Keith and Tina still seem friends (along with Rodger) so I don't think he upset her that bad. Jerri could sway Alicia. Jeff did mention that Keith's cooking manners may upset Alicia. But also Alicia was making fun of Amber while Amber/Jerri ate their reward dinner. So I don't think they were great friends. Nick and Colby could really go either way. But we do seem to be on the same track. Now will we be surprised or will it play out like we think?
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bondt007 3413 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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04-04-01, 02:50 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: The Path To Victory: Spoilers & Analysis" |
It's hard to imagine that Tina and Amber are not in the drivers seat right now. Liz, Nick and Rog are only trying like the dickens to get past each TC. That's it. They "hardly" have anything to say about "who's next" (however, cutos to Liz for doing everything in her power to sway the vote, which is more than what can be said about the other 2 Kucha). However, who looks GOOD next to who, for the final two? They tossed Jerri, so forget that one. Of the remaining 7, who is the "Kelly", the outcast?
I would not want Rog, Liz or Tina sitting next to me. Nick will pass out if he does not get tossed out soon. However, after E9 (Jerri), we need to be careful about being too logical. I think Tina mother-hens Amber and Nick is gone in E10, like everyone else. So, what is Amber and Tinas next move?
I'd look at Liz and say "yikes", she could take the millon easy! I will assume when they realize this, Liz will score one or two IC victories, in E11 and maybe E12. As soon as she doesnt, she is gone. Mean time, The other 2 in play, Colby and Rog, will go in E11, E12 or E13. Which means:E10 - Nick
E11, E12, E13 - Colby, Rog or Elisabeth (I'm not sold on the order here....yet) That leaves Tina, Amber and Keith. Tina is in control.
Depending on IC, either Keith or Amber are gone. I'm not sure yet who Tina matches up better with yet, time will tell. Nice work again, Dawg. You too, Ice...
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-04-01, 04:47 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: The Path To Victory: Spoilers & Analysis" |
I agree that really good work's being done here--sure impresses me, and I think a vote thread should be separate; votes are fun but dialogues bring out the truth, IMHO.A few things to add:
Kucha's knowledge of Keith's votes:
Kucha gets it if Amber defects, because she's gotta have Keith as No.1 on her hit list right now, same as he ever was among her fellow Ogies. It would be smartest of her to defect after Nick goes, because there would be a sure Final 3 for her if R/L/A voted against C/K/T due to Colby's votes. If she waits though, that episode (11) might find Tina (and Keith) courting L/R too, and Lis likes Tina better than Lamber I think. I can't see Colby making it past that vote. If anyone's smart, they'll move against Nick and Rodger on the non-tiebreak TC's and go after Colby/Keith/Lis in Ep. 11 and 13.
If Colby in 11, whoever doesn't win immunity in 13.
IC's definitely the wild card. Does anyone know if J.P. said Lis kicked butt in IC's specifically? Could have been a combo of RC and IC. Also, it's not out of the realm that Rodger wins a mental RC. I remember Rudy winning one. Why do we assume Rodger can't slip by when it's his turn to go? Finally, if Amber wins, that will not make me happy with the outcome (Burnett spoiler). Her personality sucks, especially in comparison with Lis, and she's done nothing to deserve winning. She's no Colleen, and I see no reason to give her a respect vote either. She has to do something really sharp and smart to get people to forgive her Jerri-kissing, and I see little promise. If I were voting, and Lis or Rodger weren't an option, I'd vote Keith for his integrity and because Jerri hates him. To date, Keith has played well by working hard, voting his conscience, and competing strenuously and successfully in challenges. He may be arrogant about cooking, but he's played it straight. Tina is two-faced; she's like Kelly and Sue combined because she turns on people and she's ruthless; if I were on that jury I'd be so over Tina as maternal figure by the time it got to the end. I'd give her some Duhritoes as parting gifts and say Bye. Again, thanks for excellent reasoning, everyone.
I feel like Amber's moves in next 2 episodes could send things in different directions, so I'm not committing til I hear more from her.
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bondt007 3413 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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04-04-01, 05:08 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: The Path To Victory: Spoilers & Analysis" |
I would absolutly agree that if Tima makes it to the final two, like I predict, almost anyone has a better chance of winning (beating Tina), except maybe for Amber. Your right, I'd vote for a "dirty" gamer than someone who has (so far) done nothing at all. Keith, Rog, Liz... they all beat Tina.
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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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04-04-01, 05:39 PM (EST)
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20. "Odd New Theory Of Mine" |
I have an odd theory... it's probably not right.. but it was kinda fun Let’s see, first off lets address the spoilers... I don't buy the html spoiler... nor the Boston paper... Ted has nothing that is remotely interesting to add to this... the Vegas spoiler has potential, but ... the aboriginal pics could have some merit... the field guide might be useful... Tina phone home is definite... the weight loss may not have played out (Tina and Lis left)... the People mag "Tina hungry" thing is overrated... MD's friends has one to go (Rodger)... contestants fall for each other (who cares!)… Keith’s charity event is good for this week... the "Lis kicks butt" are completely unsupported... ryanbbb is already proved wrong (on details)... face-time has not been a reliable detector between weeks (just in the given episode)... MB is a liar, so don't believe a word he says... Gretchen's Rodger thing is wishful thinking... Jerri's Tina comments are taken out of context if they exist at all... the Jerri /Amber split? will probably not be cleared up until the end (if it even exists)… Okay so what happens… Colby is suspicious that Keith is working out some deal that doesn't include him. He evaluates his options and works on Amber... explaining that there was nothing he could do to save Jerri so he went along so they would trust him... Amber's ticked at him but decides she's as much of a target as Colby...plus he’s so darn cute… so they form a plan to make a new alliance. Colby then approaches Nick and tells him that he and Amber were aligned with Jerri and now she's gone they don't think they can win... he goes on to tell him he thinks Keith and Tina are working some deal with Lis and Rodger to get rid of him and Amber after they vote off Nick this week. Nick is skeptical... but listens... Colby goes on to say he should try and talk Rodger or Lis into voting for either Tina or Keith and see their reaction, and finally uses his trump card in pointing out that even if Nick and the rest of the kucha were able to take control of the voting... he (Nick) was the odd man out, and the best he could hope for was 3rd place. The next day Colby, Amber, and Nick meet to discuss things... Nick who is not so skeptical anymore, agrees to join the alliance and a plan is put into place where Nick works on Lis and Rodger (to push for Keith votes), Amber works on Tina (to ensure a Nick vote), and Colby works Keith (to ensure Nick vote).... later that day Keith wins IC...confusing what Nick will do... at TC no ones votes are shown and Jeffy starts reading the them... Colby... Nick... Colby... Nick... Lis... Lis... Mr. Wizard then points out 2 for Colby... 2 for Nick... 2 for Lis... the final vote will decide who leaves... (pan to contestants squirming) Jeffy then takes the opportunity to make some inane comment and maybe even ask a question to someone... at which time Keith, Colby, Nick, and Rodger all threaten to beat the crap out of him if doesn't read the last fricken name!!! and the final vote is... LIS! With Lis gone and C/A/N in place Rodger, Keith and Tina appear to join forces 3-3. IC will determine who goes and who stays... Colby appears to have to win IC... but doesn't... and at TC in a real shocker Keith is ousted (4-2)! Now the real alliance of C/A/N/T is identified but in a twist they choose to oust one of their own (kinda) in Nick... leaving final 4 of Colby, Tina, Amber, and Rodger. Rodger is ousted next in a really boring episode... where it's framed like there might be a crack that would remove Colby, after he wins RC and get a night in a hotel somewhere... and comes back clean shaven!!! In the final episode the contestants all have to repel down a cliff in a rite of passage to an endurance IC that Colby winds up winning! He then chooses to go against Amber... and Colby wins the million on a 4-3 (N-Al-T-JERRI) vote. To review...
L-K-N-R-T-A-C Finally, in a LIVE shocker on the hour-long wrap-up show... Colby proposes to Amber (sex video had wrong partner) on national TV... before Amber can answer, Jerri throws her chair at them and Amber and Jerri get into a "cat fight" the likes not seen since Dynasty left the air... and of course FOX sues over infringement to intellectual rights to "Who Wants to Marry a Millionaire" and “When Animals Attack” ... it could ALL happen... well, most of it... maybe... -ICB
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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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04-04-01, 11:21 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: The Path To Victory: Spoilers & Analysis" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-04-01 AT 11:33 PM (EST)SDawg, great spoiler summary and analysis! I don't get to spend a lot of time on the boards but your posts are a must read in my book whenever I log on. This past weekend I started a thread that argued that the source code spoiler was, in fact, a red herring. In light of several of the new spoilers, including Jerri's friends, the Vegas picture and Rodger and Tina attending Keith's book launch, I'm now starting to believe that the source code spoiler is the real deal. The two remaining players with the least publicity and fewest references from the others are Amber and Liz. Suppose MB wants to ensure that none of the Survivors knows the result of the final vote until the live show, especially the two finalists. He wants an unrehearsed reaction from them when the winner is announced. How does he do this? Forbid the two finalists from any contact with the jury, or maybe all 14, until the live show airs. Instruct the others that they cannot discuss the finalists, except in general terms, and should try to avoid mentioning them at all so they give no indication, even subtle, as to how they voted. All under the threat of violating the confidentiality agreement. If this is true:
Mad Dog can't mention Liz or Amber.
Amber cannot attend the NYC premiere party.
Amber not on Jerri's list of friends or mentioned in her interviews. Everyone still in the game has/will have contact with or has been discussed by the others except Liz/Amber:
Colby and Nick in Vegas.
Rodger/Tina attend Keith's party.
Jerri's thoughts on Tina/Keith/Colby Of course this is speculation but several posters believe it will come down to the Amber/Liz final. I'm ready to be counted amongst that group. In fact, I agree with SDawg all the way: N/C/R/K/T/A/L But I don't think Amber needs to defect to the Kucha's for this to happen. K/T will see Amber as their best bet in front of the jury, and, like the Jerri vote, after finding out that L/R will vote IC threat Colby in E11, they take this opportunity to boot him as self-preservation, not part of a new GGA alliance. Altho for this to happen, Liz will need to pull a Kelly and kick butt in the IC's. I'm predicting 3 in a row, taking Amber to the final. Or maybe that whole source code thing is a red herring after all... Edited to add: The true teat of the Gag Order Theory will be when Rodger is booted. If Rodger does not mention or discuss Liz, can we doubt the gags are on tight and the only reason Liz/Amber were allowed to return to their loved ones is because MB couldn't find a way to legally lock them up?!!
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-05-01, 00:47 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: The Path To Victory: Spoilers & Analysis" |
Correct me if I'm wrong. But didn't I hear/read somewhere that Rodger and his wife went up to visit Liz? I think she has had some contact with the others and she has been mentioned by some of them.
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-05-01, 05:41 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: The Path To Victory: Spoilers & Analysis" |
Good post, munson, and your kind remarks are appreciated. The only thing I disagree with is Amber being disallowed to attend the NYC premiere party. I don't think MB would (if he even could) disallow something like that. It also makes no real sense to disallow it, as being part of a group of five survivors at a premiere party isn't going to give very much away. Outfrontgirl, Hatch asked just generally who Jerri liked and disliked, but I agree that any decent interviewer/reporter is going to say "What about Amber? Y'all looked pretty tight there in the outback, slapping the bongo drum and talking about chocolate sex!" etc. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged "If I were perfect, I'd run for God." -- Corporal Maxwell Q. Klinger, 4077th MASH
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