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"Kucha still might have a chance..."
shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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03-29-01, 11:24 PM (EST)
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"Kucha still might have a chance..." |
Let's say BT and KKK get greedy here and try and play both sides of the fence. They reconcile with Lamber and the Colbster and reform the new and improved Ogafour in an effort to eliminate the remaining Kuchathree.At the same time, BT and KKK side up to KJ and Lizliz and start the Good-Guy-Alliance (GGA) They let lizliz and KJ know that once the ogafour get rid of Nick, the GGA will spring into action and get rid of the Colbster and Lamber. Well, here's the problem....what if Nick wins Immunity again. BT and KKK get greedy and decide to stick with the GGA, but they're worried about leaving 3 Kucha around in case of a double cross..., but they're greedy so they go for it anyway. they tell Colbster and Laber that they will agree to vote off Lizliz, but they tell Lizliz and KJ that they will vote for Colby instead, giving Colby a 5-2 loss to Lizliz and preserving the GGA. This would also give KKK and BT some insurance from a Kucha revival cause Lizliz would be the leading vote carrier with 5 opposed to KKK's 3, therefore they could suppress a Kucha coup (unless Lizliz wins IC) and roll into final 3 with lamber. BUT, KJ and Lizliz realize this as well and they vote off Lamber instead. The vote goes Lamber=3 votes, Colbster= 2 votes and Lizliz = 2 votes........Lamber is gone. Now we move into the next episode with a 3-3 tribe tie and the advantage in Kucha's favor cause The Colbster now would have 7 previous votes as opposed to Lizliz's 5, the deciding two coming from BT and KKK. Unless Colbster wins IC, he gets taken out and then Kucha picks off Ogawhroe and enters the final 3.
The more I think about it the more I realize that KKK and BT better slap Lamber in line and stick with the ogafour from here on out....besides, why would they want to go into the final four with Rodger and Lizlliz as opposed to lamber and Colbster...that makes NO SENSE.
besides, BT even acknolegded that she was ready to dump Rodger or Lizliz and even told Lizliz as much.
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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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03-30-01, 01:12 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Long Live the MIGHTY KUCHA" |
unbelievable... Tina/Keith took a HUGE step towards taking themselves out of any chance to win. The balance of power has shifted in favor on the Kucha (specifically Liz/Roger). We now stand with the following alliances:A) Keith/Tina ---- probably vote together B) Liz/Roger/Nick- probably vote together C) Colby/Amber --- swing votes unpredictable Keith and Tina have to hold BOTH Colby and Amber to retain the voting majority. If they lose just one of them, they're done. In an earlier episode Keith said he didn't care anymore if he won the money or not. He just wanted to make sure Jerri didn't win. It doesn't take any imagination at all to think Amber could take a similar attitude if she feels (with cause) she and Jerrie were knifed in the back. I could easily Amber switching and voting with Kucha just out of spite, if her and Jerri were anywhere near as tight as they showed. Maybe Keith and Tina can keep Amber on the "team", but they will certainly have their work cut out for them getting Amber to trust them again. Keith and Tina only had to put up with Jerri 6 more days, voting off 2 more Kucha before teaming up with the last remaining Kucha (who ever it might have been) and THEN VOTING OFF JERRI who would have a mountain of votes against her making whatever Colby did irrelevant. Keith/Tina/Kucha could have picked off Amber and Colby at their leisure assuring Keith/Tina made the final 3. Who Wins immunity will always throw an element of doubt in any strategy, but I think Keith and Tina have very likely taken themselves out of the big money. Maybe Keith/Tina could team with Liz/Roger, but why would Liz/Roger trust them? Liz/Roger are MUCH BETTER OFF sticking with Nick and using either Amber or Colby to gain the voting edge. Liz/Roger make it to the final 2 voting off Keith/Tina/Colby/Amber/Nick in order. This isn't a prediction. It's an examination of who's in the drivers seat now, and it seems to me it's Liz/Roger. I know Alicia is reported to have said things get interesting, and I think it was Probst that said alliances didn't mean as much in Survivor II as it did Survivor I, and now I guess I know what they were talking about. What makes this all the more amazing is how well Tina/Kieth (especially Tina) has played this game so well, just to go and screw things up now. It should make the next couple weeks interesting, but I could well be the last time a tribe breaks voting lines untill ALL of the other tribes gone.
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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03-30-01, 01:25 AM (EST)
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4. "flaw in your analysis" |
>We now stand with the >following alliances: > >A) Keith/Tina ---- probably vote together > >B) Liz/Roger/Nick- probably vote together >C) Colby/Amber --- swing votes unpredictable > >....here's where your wrong....Colby voted along with KKK and BT, so there is still an ogawhore alliance......it won't be hard to whip amber into shape and make her realize that an alliance of 4 is much better and safer than one of 5,, they HAD to get rid of Scerri....... BT and KKK are still in charge, if they are worried about teaming with lamber and Colby they could always turn to Roger and Lizliz....
Lamber's an idiot, she's not going to be able to see the possibility of a sub-alliance with Nick in the Kucha final four, therefore, she will assume that a move to Kucha is worth no better than 4th....therefore she'll stay with Oga and work on Colby for a sub-alliance. I do think BT and KKK made one mistake tonight, they should've had Colby vote with Scerri and lamber, that way it will be easy to use Colby as a "mediator" in bringing Lamber back into the Ogafour.
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Ogaalltheway 16 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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03-30-01, 11:06 AM (EST)
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18. "Surviving Episode 10" |
I was leaning towards Nick going next eppy, but I wouldn't be shocked if my fave cowboy got the boot. I would bet money that the survivors must give up the immunity challenge in order to get more food. Either that, or pick a player to not compete in the immunity challenge. That said....I think that K/T/C will vote together (for Nick) I think that L/R/N will vote together (for Colby) I think that Amber will throw a vote to someone who doesn't have one already cast against them (either Tina or more likely Rodger) or vote for Keith (to build up those important previously cast votes). In a 3-3 tie, Colby goes based on previous votes cast. Either that, or Amber feels betrayed by Colby more then T/K, because Colby promised that it would be C/J/A in final three. Therefore, Amber doesn't join Kucha alliance, but figures they will vote for the Colbster, so she throws her vote to him as well. Chances for survival next eppy (from worst to best) Colby Nick Liz Rodger Keith Amber Tina
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md23rewls 23 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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03-30-01, 02:14 PM (EST)
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26. "Kucha now has an advantage" |
They have a three person alliance. C/K/T/A would have an advantage but now Amber is going to be acting on her own. She might even think that she will go next, after her best friend Scerri. She will not be able to trust Colby, Keith or Tina. Then again, she knows that either alliance she chooses, the best place she can get is 4th. So she either goes with C/K/T, who lied to her face, or Kucha. My bet is she will side with neither and vote randomly, which'll give Kucha the advantage because of the previous votes cast for Keith and Colby. She might even vote against Tina, which'll give Kucha an advantage there as well. Jerri has spoken very hostily towards Tina in her interviews, and Amber might feel the same way. Colby's head is on the chopping block now.
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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03-30-01, 04:13 PM (EST)
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30. "Lamber NOT barred from final 2" |
>. > Then again, she knows >that either alliance she chooses, >the best place she can >get is 4th. ....not true at all. Just like KKK and BT were able to figure out that the Colbster was gonna screw them over in the final 5, the Colbster will be able to figure out that KKK and BT will screw him over in the final 3.....the Colbster has to know that BT and KKK have what appears to be a final 2 pact, besides, why would BT and KKK WANT Colbster in the final 3 since he would only be ONE IC victory away from the final 2...and he would be the favorite in any physical IC and you know the last IC will be physical.
Since the Colbster knows this, his best bet is to get to the final four with OGafour, and then allign with Lamber to get rid of KKK and BT....therefore, Lamber definitely has a shot at the final 2. IF she were to join up with Kucha, she would once again be in line for a final 2 appearance......NIck would know that Lizliz and KJ have a final 2 pact and he would have to allign with Lamber....Lizliz is the leading vote getter at this point amongst the four of them, so Lamber would have a VERY GOOD shot at the final 2.
Either way, Lamber is still a good bet for the final 2, provided she can make it to the final 4.
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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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04-02-01, 00:49 AM (EST)
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36. "RE: flaw in your analysis" |
Colby had to vote for Jerri. He had now way to know for sure what the Kuchas were voting. Sure they say they are going to vote Jerri, but they mave have voted for him. He did the right thing. If he voted for Liz with J/A, there could have been a tie between him and Liz which he would have lost. In case of the tie, he HAD to vote Jerri, since she would have lost out to him if Kucha voted Colby
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-02-01, 01:34 AM (EST)
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39. "RE: flaw in your analysis" |
the actual mistakes they made: 1. they targeted lislis instead of kyjoe; didn't they see rudy win an immunity in S1, not all the challenges are athletic; 2. instead of switching their votes to lislis the three could have switched to kyjoe, creating a tie; at least that way if they still were getting rid of jerki they would be pilling votes on kyjoe to carry instead of just lislis.
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frogspit 95 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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03-30-01, 01:16 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Long Live the MIGHTY KUCHA" |
I agree, IC, and also voted for Elisabeth to go for the same reason. It looks to me like the Ogawhores just signed their own death warrant! They have just taken a HUGE gamble that their backstabbing of Jerri while leaving Amber left hanging out to dry isn't going to force Amber to join the Kuchas. What would stop her from joining them over the backstabbers? Kucha wants blood now and are going to do everything to persuade Amber to join them. My guess is she will since she knows she cannot trust -any- of the Ogawhores now. It looks to me like Ogawhore screwed up big time and Kucha is going to rise again with the help of Amber. The -new- Kucha Four is going to be organized and it's not Nick's head on the chopping block, but COLBY's! LOL. Go Kucha!
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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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04-02-01, 00:57 AM (EST)
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37. "RE: Long Live the MIGHTY KUCHA" |
What we seem to be missing is that by switching sides, Amber is guaranteeing C/K/and T not to vote for her in the final jury and she would also be there with a Kucha which would give her NO shot of winning. By sticking with Ogie, she has a much better chance since K and C both have votes and she has none. Moving over to Kucha is suicide. She must KNOW that K/T/C will not vote her next or they will be out themselves. She gets to go from lapdog to leader, and call the shots now. The Ogies had no beef against Amber, only Jerri which was clearly and publicly shown.
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-30-01, 07:36 AM (EST)
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9. "SD and Clown agreeing??? Yes!" |
Yes, that's right, I am in agreement with shakestheclown on several of the issues he points out, to wit:The Colbster, despite the Coral Maneuver, is going to go soon. My way of thinking is that Nick goes next (barring immunity, then it's Rodger, so sorry), then on the next vote the Colbster gets to sing the praises of Texas back at the ranch. I am fully cognizant of the GGA alliance, and believe it will come into play... but not at the ultimate expense of the Ogie alliance. Even K/T know that the Kuchas remember the skin dripping off Mike's fingers. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
"If I were perfect, I'd run for God." -- Corporal Maxwell Q. Klinger, 4077th MASH
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RASH 19 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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03-30-01, 08:42 AM (EST)
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10. "AMBER" |
WHAT I TOOK FROM LAST NIGHT WAS THE SHOT OF AMBER AFTER JERRI WAS VOTED OFF. WHAT I SAW WAS AN "OH, SH*T AM I NEXT LOOK." I THINK WE ARE GOING TO SEE A NEW AMBER. SHE DOESN'T HAVE JERRI TO GUIDE HER AND I CAN SEE HER HOOKING UP WITH LIZ, RODGER, TINA AND KEITH AS A NEW ALLIANCE. THEY ARE GOING TO TAKE OUT THE PHYSICALLY STRONG STARTING WITH NICK AND THEN COLBY.
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aymelek 1220 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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03-30-01, 08:52 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Kucha still might have a chance..." |
The previews from last night's episode are all you need really to figure out what's probably going to happen next. I don't remember the EXACT quote, but the decision they made was supposed to 'cost them dearly.' I take that to mean that, in voting out Jerri, Ogakore just royally screwed themselves. That alliance won't stick together & Colby's outta there.
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guppy 3 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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03-30-01, 09:37 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: Kucha still might have a chance..." |
>I >don't remember the EXACT quote, >but the decision they made >was supposed to 'cost them >dearly.' I take that to >mean that, in voting out >Jerri, Ogakore just royally screwed >themselves. That alliance won't stick >together & Colby's outta there. I think you're a little confused. First of all, the big decision concerned FOOD (they showed clips of them complaining about being hungry, and their supply of rice running out), not necessarily how their vote went at the last TC. I'm not sure what they would have to give up in order to get more rice. Maybe they won't have a bonus challenge next episode for one member to be rewarded; maybe they sacrifice that opportunity as a group in order for all of them to get rice. I doubt they would kick someone out for food...that would be an ultimate sacrifice. Anyone else have a clue what they would have to give up??
As far as the game dynamics go, it's obviously a whole new ball game. I think Amber is the only swing vote here, not Colby. She alone decides how the rest of the game is played out. If she were smart, she'd go over to Kucha, who would welcome her with open arms. They desparately need her to overthrow K/C/T (first Colby, then Keith, then Tina, in order of threat..) Why wouldn't Amber go? Her best friend in game just got booted by her own tribe-mates. They didn't even hesitate or wait until they had a greater majority over the Kuchas to vote Jerri out; that shows how much they disliked her and how willing they are to weaken their hold on the game to rid of an annoyance. Amber must realize that she means nothing to her former tribe-mates; yeah, she would make the final four voting along tribal lines, but that would be a best-case scenario. Her best chance would be to go to Kucha, where she would have a MUCH better chance of winning immunity against Nick, Elisabeth, and Rodger.
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AresMars 283 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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03-30-01, 09:31 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: Kucha still might have a chance..." |
Kucha does have a chance but as everyone has noted it all depends on Lamber now. The Colby has some serious fence mending to do but he will do it. Lamber is going to face with a choice between joining the Kucha’s in a new alliance or sticking with the Ogawhoreless. Is it the devil you know? Or the Devil you don’t know? If, a big if, Colby can convince Lamber that last nights moves where necessary and assures her that by sticking together from here on out the Ogawhoreless will make it to the final 4 then we will see Nick, Liz, and Rodger gone over the next few episodes. Lamber was such a puppy dog to Scerri that she must now be in a state of shock. Colby will take advantage of this and begin working on her immediately, probably on the way back from TC. Colby has been in charge of the voting for his tribe since at least Bitchell’s booting and may be even before.
There are two types of people, predators and prey, and the sound you hear is the sharpening of my claws.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-30-01, 04:03 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Kucha in control" |
I agree Liz & Rodger would not vote off Nick. Nick seemed to feel so guilty around them when he won immunity. It was like he knew winning had put one of them on the chopping block. Plus we see next week that it is Nick holding Liz when she is moaning about being so hungry. They have bonded over the Mike accident. They wouldn't vote each other until it was just the 3 of them.
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landruajm 6040 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-30-01, 11:18 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: Liz and immunity" |
Rice for no IC is a great idea. Good one.I find myself agreeing with the notion that it all revolves around LameBore. I get off the bus, however, when we start trying to apply logic to figuring out what she's going to do. This is a person who was the wicked witch's little dog even when the tornado started to blow (sorry, mixed metaphors, sort of). We're inferring that loyalty is the most important thing in her little world. This isn't a bad inference, necessarily. But we're also piling on the inference that she's calculating (i.e, it's easier for her in a final four with L/R/N than K/C/T). I'm not convinced she's shown any evidence of the sort of electrical activity in her brain that lends itself to calculation. It's easy for me to believe that she wants to be Lis's new best friend--because she seems to like having a best friend. It's also easy for me to believe that she will forgive the Colbster ANYTHING. Sorry, I'm more thinking out loud here than advancing any firm theory. Go Lis, of course (for reasons that are best described in the Ep 8 summary on SurvivorSucks--and for want of any sensible reasons).
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tari32 38 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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04-02-01, 00:26 AM (EST)
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35. "RE: Liz and immunity" |
I know this is a JP quote, but does anyone remember the exact words? Many are waiting for Liz to dominate the rest of the challenges but I would love to read Jeffie's exact words. Think about it, the common quote is "Liz kicked butt in the challenges". One word change and the sentence is, "Liz kicked butt with the challenges".(Of surviving?) One letter and the sentence is "Liz kicked butt in the challenge". Yep, bad grammar but Liz survived the "shocking" challenge of Jerri's boot, maybe that is all this quote means. Anyway, any help to find Jeff's exact words would be appreciated...
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Bushwacker 74 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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03-30-01, 12:43 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Scerri and Lamber " |
For the life of me I can't figure out why Jerri would be so upset with Amber, unless Amber & Colby end up with each other.As for a mention earlier of Colby being the new ***** because of the gifts, no way. He didn't need to knock anyone else when he gave his gifts. Granted it made Jerri look bad but not because of what Colby did, it was because of what Jerri didn't do. Amber was shocked that Jerri was ousted which tells me C/K/T didn't speak with her about it. Apparently she's the odd woman out. They can get her back though, she's obviously easy to control and Ogakor should know how to do it. I really don't understand why C/K/T didn't wait for one more vote. It's only 3 more days for crying out loud. They would have been guaranteed a win by waiting 3 more days. This one doesn't make any sense. Sure am glad now that the show will be fun to watch and tough to figure out.
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MadforMadDog 48 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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03-30-01, 01:04 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Scerri and Lamber " |
LAST EDITED ON 03-30-01 AT 01:24 PM (EST)Three days might be like three years with Scerri. I think Colby had enough of Scerri (maybe in the literal sense). He thought it was time to send the bi*ch packing. Colby's voting comments: "Jerri, Jerri, Jerri,.....You're buggin the h*ll out of everyone. That knock that you keep hearing is housekeeping it is time for you to check out" I loved it!!!!! Edited to add Colby's comments
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SherpaDave 8326 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-30-01, 02:00 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Scerri and Lamber " |
It would have only been three more days, assuming Jerri didn't win the next immunity challenge. I don't think Keith wanted to take that chance.
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-30-01, 01:02 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Scerri and Lamber " |
Some spoiler info I read somewhere (probably this board) suggested that Amber was not only not talking with Jerri, but that she was having virtually no communication with ANY OF THE OTHER FIFTEEN CONTESTANTS. This could mean two things, especially if we assume she made the Final Two: 1) She won the whole thing and is lying low so as not to give it away. 2) She LOST the whole thing and hasn't been in a very forgiving mood. In other words, can anyone think of 900,000 reasons for Amber's unfriendliness? *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged "If I were perfect, I'd run for God." -- Corporal Maxwell Q. Klinger, 4077th MASH
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weltek 16936 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-30-01, 01:17 PM (EST)
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24. "Amber not speaking to others" |
If the spoilers that Amber isn't speaking to Jerri, nor any other contestants, what are all the possibilities?1. Amber can't go next week because as soon as she was voted off, she'd cling back on to Jerri and they'd sit and complain about the others together. I think their friendship would be stronger than ever with that case scenario. 2. Amber makes it to final two and Jerri's vote is a swing vote and Jerri votes against Amber. Good support of Liz and Amber being the final two theory. I think that Liz is the only other person that Jerri might favor winning than Amber. Keith, Tina, Colby screwed Jerri. Nick and Roger never interracted much with Jerri, and Jerri DID make the comment about Liz being the sweetest, most likeable person ever. Jerri might decide that's enough reason for Liz to win. 3. Amber sides with Kucha now and they vote off an Ogakor next week. Then in Ep. 12, Kucha and Ogakor "good guy allilance" vote off Amber. Jerri ditches Amber back at the ranch for a friendship with Alicia. Or...Amber votes for Colby or someone to win, ticking Jerri off, causing a rift when they leave Oz. I'm sure there are more possibilities, but these are the ones I thought could be helpful and logical to determine Amber's boot order.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-31-01, 01:21 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: Winner doesn't know it?" |
Whether there is or isn't a lockbox they do get to give their speeches before the vote. So maybe Amber tried playing both tribes against each other and was found out. She could be in the final 2 and have several people angry at her betrayal. It was before the vote that Sue gave her speech to Kelly. Maybe Amber does make enemies. Who knows?
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-30-01, 04:12 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: Scerri and Lamber " |
I noticed that Jerri was saying that she planned to be in the final with Colby. That means somewhere along the line she was planning to drop Amber. Maybe they weren't as close as we thought? Plus if the final came down to Colby and Amber - Jerri just might vote for Colby hoping to yet again win him over. Amber would be upset then. Amber seems to think alot of loyalty. She kept voting against Keith even when Mitchell begged to leave. She always voted with Jerri. So the fact that her team mates voted out Jerri without telling her first has to hurt. They didn't trust her. She is going to be running scared.
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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-31-01, 01:51 PM (EST)
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33. "Shakes... Nice Work on Boot Camp Summary" |
Very cruel... nicely done ;)
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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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04-04-01, 03:13 PM (EST)
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41. "(JUST A PUSH)" |
n/m
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SherpaDave 8326 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-04-01, 03:14 PM (EST)
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42. "bump" |
to move ahead of skierdude's exclamation points from hell
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
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