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"Log Rolling/Balancing Theory... Last Chance"
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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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03-29-01, 08:10 AM (EST)
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"Log Rolling/Balancing Theory... Last Chance"
Log Rolling/Balancing Theory

At the risk of starting a duplicate thread I feel it's absolutely important to get this info out of the depths of various other posts and get it out in front before tonight's episode. I'm hoping that the combined intellectual mass of the SB board can squeeze out some additional spoiler nectar from this theory.

IMHO... This is the most prior knowledge we have had about the of RC and IC since EP7. If you read my posts carefully, you'll see that my claims are based upon close analysis and not speculation. Please take the time to review all of the links posted here and, if you have a video tape of the EP9 preview, please watch it in slow motion. I have some questions at the bottom of this post that I would dearly love to have everyone answer.

We have 12 hours until the start of the episode...
We have spoilers to flush out...
We have excellent intelligence including close up video and aerial reconnisance photos...

Sorry, that last part was a little too 'BootCamp'

Here's the rest of the 'Mission Briefing':

Background:

Shortly after EP8.5 and based upon a very indepth analysis of the preview video for EP9 I determined that the IC for EP9 would be very likely be log rolling or something similar to log rolling:

Preview Video Log Rolling Analysis Posts

pics:

http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/1031.shtml#2

http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=1031&forum=DCForumID2&omm=19

http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=1031&forum=DCForumID2&omm=22

http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=1031&forum=DCForumID2&omm=54


Kirin made the following post where he/she made the link between the log rolling/balancing idea and this aerial photo of a challenge area:

http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/1075.shtml#4

My analysis of this pic is here:

http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/1075.shtml#6


Tasks:

IMHO... This is the most prior knowledge we have ever had about the of RC and IC since EP7. If you read my posts carefully, you see that my claims are based upon close analysis and not speculation. I think that, on this last day before the episode, it behooves us to focus on this info and perhaps try to analyze the head and shoulder shots of the contestants during the log rolling/balancing competition. They are the last 8 pics in AyaK's post:

http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/1031.shtml#2

Questions we should look at today:

If we take into consideration that the most logical way to perform a head to head elimination competition (like log rolling) is in elimination-tournament fashion. Starting with a round of 8 contestants (4 matches), then 4 contestants (2 matches), then the final 2 contestant match.

Can we infer anything from the facial expressions?
Roger, Colby, Keith, and Amber have BIG smiles.
Jerri, Nick, and Liz have Determined/Concerned looks.
Tina looks like she is responding to a taunt. (a 'I know you are but whut am I' type look)

Can we infer anything from the side of the log that each person is shown on?
Jerri, Roger, Tina, Nick, and Amber are shown on the left side of the head-to-head arrangement.
Liz Colby and Keith are shown on the right side.

Can we infer anything from whether or not people's hair is wet?
(not hoping for much here - they could be wet from swiming out to the towers)
Roger, Keith, Colby, Nick, and Liz dry.
Jerri, Tina, and Amber wet.

Lets give an all out push to get as much out of this info as we can! We should at least be able to narrow down who get immunity to 4 choices... maybe even two people if we get some last minute info.


Thank's folks,

IceCat

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Log Rolling/Balancing Theory...... Tyler_Durden 03-29-01 1
 JustD's idea AyatollahKhomeini 03-29-01 2
   RE: JustD's idea samiam 03-29-01 6
 RE: Log Rolling/Balancing Theory...... ana128 03-29-01 3
   RE: Log Rolling/Balancing Theory...... samiam 03-29-01 4
 RE: Log Rolling/Balancing Theory...... 40thandUp 03-29-01 5

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Tyler_Durden 17 desperate attention whore postings
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03-29-01, 10:23 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Log Rolling/Balancing Theory... Last Chance"
You know I'm with ya on this one IceCat

It almost looks like 2 huge rolling pins end to end in the old spoiler pic rehashed by Kirin. Good job!
As for narrowing it down, wouldn't the people with wet hair be in round 2/final already.

I'm thinkin' Tina gets Rodger as a partner in RC cuz of Jerri's whining. Tina eventually shows up Jerri by winning IC. She has the wettest hair and still appears to be in the challenge.

Anyway, we'll see 2nite.

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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03-29-01, 11:15 AM (EST)
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2. "JustD's idea"
IceCat, I haven't disregarded JustD's idea here.

http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/1031.shtml#41

Krautboy and I discussed this a little in another thread: the logical first-round pairing would be between RC partners, matching up with the CBS teaser about how one of the RC winners showed up the other. And I like Krautboy's analysis in the thread I referenced about the finalists being the dry ones in the pictures (you can still do tug-of-war if you are sick, whereas log-rolling would be very difficult).

Thoughts?

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samiam 5976 desperate attention whore postings
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03-29-01, 02:40 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: JustD's idea"
A thought in line with this...if your partner in the RC also had to be your partner in the first round of the single-elimination IC, it could be a blessing or a curse. For instance, if you had a rather weak RC partner you could lose the RC, but it would be to your advantage in the IC because they would be easily beaten. However, if you had a stronger person as your RC partner and did well at the RC, you could be doomed in the IC. Which would fit with the teaser of one person shows up the other. Does that make sense? I'm only on about 2 hours' sleep (teething children are hell), so I could think I'm producing Shakespeare only to find I've repeated the phrase "Fish Mouth" 15 times in a row LOL
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ana128 17 desperate attention whore postings
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03-29-01, 11:17 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Log Rolling/Balancing Theory... Last Chance"
I'm w/ ya too, Ice Cat!

I was wondering about the pics of Jerri/Amber falling in the water. After seeing the previews from the Early Show this morning, I don't think they are from the RC. Could be IC?

ana

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samiam 5976 desperate attention whore postings
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03-29-01, 01:05 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Log Rolling/Balancing Theory... Last Chance"
I was thinking the exact same thing...we don't see a section of the RC that has to do with falling in a good deal of water, like the Amber pic does...that may be our only view of the IC from far away. The closeup pics I think are IC as well. Excellent analysis, folks, keep it up!
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40thandUp 43 desperate attention whore postings
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03-29-01, 02:28 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Log Rolling/Balancing Theory... Last Chance"
Two things to discuss - and I was slow on getting the first out as work has gotten in the way of my time to explore what is gonna happen.

1. Yesterday while watching Thursday night shows I had taped on Mar 15 (between the 2 Wed episodes) on Global - there was a quick preview for Survivor. It was a 15 seconds spot. But the point of this was that only Amber, Colby, Keith , Rodger and Liz were shown in that order. There was only the typical music and dialogue. Near the end of the ad a shot appears for a frame of the right side of the 'mystery face' then the next frame is the survivor logo followed again by the face but this time only the quarter around the eye (which was green) and hair (just dark in shot under the headress outline) This second face shot is again just a frame in duration. Watching again these back and forth shots are barely noticable at regular speed - almost subliminal.

Anyone feel that these 5 are just incidental for the add or mean anything? I know they don't match the border theory. The close up of the eye?

I would've capture it but - I do not have the means to do so.

2. Regarding the pairings:

Re the info known on the RC pairings - any think that both challenges could be linked in the teams that are made for the RC? Going with the log-rolling IC...have the 4 teams first work together to stay afloat and be the final team, then that twosome rolls against one another for the Immunity. This forces the tribes to mix and attempt to upset the tribal bonds already established. Jerri wanted the Colby pairing and gets it they win RC but the IC does not go so well for them. Someone discussed Rogers background in logging and may this be an edge for that team. Even Nick could win IC this way.

General rambling to follow...

What really matters is what the IC is and who wins/looses the immunity, and once more MB has given nothing good to go on. I thought he was playing the game with us - if he has been dropping hints - they are way out there.....hmmmm..unless someone has nailed the theory and his goons watching the internet have seen it and he does not want to confirm it so soon.

...

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