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Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-27-01, 11:52 AM (EST) "WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT GETS THE BOOT!!!" I started a thread last week regarding Tina and the possibility that she may still be part of the "Jerri's Kids" alliance. Here is a link for those who have missed it... http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/1041.shtml In it I discussed the possibility that Tina has been playing "double agent" along with Colby, as strategy to keep kieth in line. This got me thinking... I have explained in detail why Tina and Kieth or Amber and Jerri would not opt to join with Kucha this week. I explained that if indeed Colby was with Tina and Kieth and they joined up with Kucha this week to oust Jerri that in the end it takes control away from them and essentially gives it to Amber. From that point Amber could swap over and join up with Kucha, is she so desired, and either way would likely be guaranteed final 4. I surmised that Tina, Kieth and/or Colby, would not let control get away from them... So that would mean that no one from Ogakor would join up with the remaining Kucha this week. But... I didn't think until recently about the possibility of Ogakor voting off Ogakor. Hold on a sec, i'm getting ahead of myself... Once again, in my Tina the double agent thread I gave what I feel to be a good amount of evidence pointing towards her still being part of the original "Jerri's Kids" alliance, which then consisted of Jerri, Colby, Amber, Tina and Mitchell. They had to sacrifice Mitchell due to the need for Kieth's strength, but at the same time the could not afford to have Kieth jump ship and join up with Kucha. How to keep him aligned with Ogakor until he was no longer needed?... Have Tina befriend him and use the Mitchell vote off as the way to gain his trust. Have Colby "join" in and that would lead him to believe that he will be part of the final 3. If you thought that you were assured final 3, would you Benedict on your alliance? NO!!!!! So neither has/will Kieth. Now as of tonight Ogakor for the first time no longer needs Kieth. Let me explain... First the CBS preview reads... Next Week on SURVIVOR: THE AUSTRALIAN OUTBACK * A shocking twist will have people talking the next day. What will it be? * While others insist on choosing partners from a hat, Jerri insist that Colby be her partner--period--because "this is not a fair game." Will she get her wish? * Which two tribe members will get a day of great food and snorkeling, and which one will ultimately show up the other? So the last two are explicitely regarding the Reward challenge. I started to think about what the first one meant. So, I don't think that MB will straight out "lie" to the Regular viewing audience (we are not part of THAT audience). Mind you he WILL lie to us by providing incorrect pics, etc. Things that regular viewers will not look for. The "shocking twist that will have people talking the next day" is what concerns me. The "PEOPLE" are likely the viewing audience. Now if any one of the Kucha were to be voted off, no one would talk about it as it is expected. Same would go for if Jerri got the boot. Many people would be happy, but not suprised. Now if Kieth got the boot... Well you could see how people's jaws would be hitting the ground and the number one point of conversation at the water fountain would be just that. Now this week Ogakor has 5, while Kucha has 3. We can assume that Kucha will all vote for the same person, probably Jerri. Now I believe that Colby/Tina will tell Kieth that they are voting for Liz or Roger or possibly Nick. We will see the voting and MB WILL show us Kieth's vote of Liz. Then when it comes time for Jeffy to read the votes it would probably go something like this... Jerri... Jerri... Liz... At this point Liz would be shitting knowing that she's gone. Jerri... Kieth... Everyone of the viewing audience, Kucha and Kieth would be saying "what the #####!!!" Kieth... Kieth... and the 9th person voted out is... KIETH!!!!! So, you can see that at this point Jerri, Colby, Tina and Amber (which we know for sure were part of the same alliance at the beginning) would be assured (barring the last Kucha winning immunity) Final 4. Their plan would have worked perfectly. Now it is likely that Colby would not want to do this this week but if Jerri got Colby alone for a night... Well, she would be in a position (possibly multiple positions) to talk him into anything. She would explain how he has won the last two immunity challenges and that he is a threat. Why not get rid of him? Now I may be wrong but logically this makes sense, if you really think about it. We saw Tina state regarding voting Marilyn off... "It has nothing to do with you Mad Dog and everything to do with a promise I made". If she backstabbed Mad Dog then why would she not do the same to Kieth? Sure she may not like Jerri but she may know that Jerri's plan will get her to the finals. And when it comes down to it... "Money talks and Kieth will walk". Conspiracy Jim "Ya, sure we went to the moon"!!!   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT... ElmersGlue 03-27-01 1    RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT... ItzLisa 03-27-01 4  RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT... Bungler 03-27-01 2    RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT... Conspiracy Jim 03-27-01 5        RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT... Bungler 03-28-01 21    RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT... SurvivinDawg 03-27-01 16  Life begins at 40 LowRent 03-27-01 3    RE: Life begins at 40 Conspiracy Jim 03-27-01 6        RE: Life begins at 40 Goblin 03-27-01 7            RE: Life begins at 40 Conspiracy Jim 03-27-01 9                RE: Life begins at 40 Goblin 03-27-01 11            RE: Life begins at 40 GG 03-27-01 10  RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT... annadad2 03-27-01 8    RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT... Conspiracy Jim 03-27-01 12        Just can't buy it weltek 03-27-01 13            Nope AyatollahKhomeini 03-27-01 20        RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT... annadad2 03-28-01 22    RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT... 5Foot3 03-27-01 15  One Question..... MDSkinner 03-27-01 14    RE: One Question..... missalex 03-27-01 17        RE: One Question..... Beth57 03-27-01 18  RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT... SurvivinDawg 03-27-01 19  RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT... e4c5 03-28-01 23    RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT... SurvivinDawg 03-28-01 24        RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT... e4c5 03-28-01 25

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ElmersGlue 57 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 03-27-01, 12:24 PM (EST) 1. "RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT GETS THE BOOT!!!" hmmm - and it would give his one week to do the typical television show interviews which would then make him free for the April 6th cookbook/benefit party in Detroit... you have me thinking! There is an article here http://observer-eccentric.com/taste/index.html which basically says 2 things. First - Keiths total weight loss was 27lbs. Does he look to be there yet? Second - The release of this cookbook was originally scheduled to be in Octobor, but was delayed due to Survivor. Now if they had to reschedule it - wouldn't it make sense to reschedule it to coincide with Keith's boot? When has Mark Burnett EVER allowed a non-booted contestant to attend such a public event?   Top

ItzLisa 3350 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 03-27-01, 02:19 PM (EST) 4. "RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT GETS THE BOOT!!!" >hmmm - and it would give his one week to do the typical television show interviews which would then make him free for the April 6th cookbook/benefit party in Detroit... *** Yes, but this was the same scenario weeks ago when we were all speculating that due to the release of his cookbook, he was probably getting voted off that week. And we all saw that was false. I doubt if his April 6th benefit thing has anything to do with it, really. ************************************** What if the Hokey Pokey really IS what it's all about???   Top

Bungler 497 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 03-27-01, 02:01 PM (EST) 2. "RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT GETS THE BOOT!!!" The only problem with your vote scenario is that is implies a possible tie between Keith and Jerri, and in that case Jerri would lose. We have Keith with 3 total votes against him: Mitchell, Jerri and Amber from week 4, and this tally goes up to 5 if Jerri and Amber's revotes count as well. Then we have Jerri with 6 total votes against her: Kel (Week 2), Maralyn (Week 3), then Alicia, Nick, Elisabeth & Rodger (Week 8). This doesn't disprove any of your Tina theory, or that Keith will be the ultimate bootee in Week 9, just that your vote scenario doesn't play out quite right. Also, in the case of ties, I wonder if votes keep accumulating? What I mean is, if Lis votes for Jerri in weeks 8 + 9, does that equal two votes, or just the one since it's an individual. Same thing with revotes (like Keith's 3 vs. 5 tally in Week 4 that I mentioned above). Nobody here is likely to know the answer to that one, but I'd be curious to know how MB is toting up these votes.   Top

Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-27-01, 02:37 PM (EST) 5. "RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT GETS THE BOOT!!!" You are not doing your math correctly. You are correct regarding the tie breaker votes but you didn't pay enough attention to my speculated votes... It went like this... Jerri... = 1 (from Liz) Jerri... = 2 (from Nick) Liz... = 1 (from Kieth-this could be Roger or Nick) Jerri... = 3 (from Roger) Kieth... = 1 (from Jerri) Kieth... = 2 (from Amber) Kieth... = 3 (from colby) and the 9th person voted out is... Kieth... = 4 (from Tina, yes Tina!!!) That is not a tie and that is the reason why Jerri may just want this week to oust Kieth. Kieth would get 4, while Jerri 3. The only way this is a problem is if Kieth finds out before hand and joins up with Kucha. For that to happen he would have to believe that both Colby and Tina are going to screw him over. We have seen in the past how good Tina is at lying to her "friends" faces, so why should we think that he would distrust her. Kieth = 4 Jerri = 3 Liz or Roger or Nick = 1 In fact you know that while the votes are being cast MB will show us at least one of the Jerri votes and Kieth's Liz/Nick/Roger vote so that the general viewing audience, and even most of us here on the boards, would just assume that the Kucha that Kieth votes for is gone. Then when Jeffy shows us the votes as soon as we see Kieth we all freak out, and thus talk about it the next day. Conspiracy Jim "Ya, sure we went to the moon"!!!   Top

Bungler 497 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 03-28-01, 09:49 AM (EST) 21. "RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT GETS THE BOOT!!!" Oops. Sorry, Jim, my bad. Of course, I don't want Keith to go, so I want you to be wrong. ;o)   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-27-01, 06:45 PM (EST) 16. "RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT GETS THE BOOT!!!" I'll be corrected fer sure if I am wrong, but I don't think the re-votes count, just the original ones. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

LowRent 49 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 03-27-01, 02:04 PM (EST) 3. "Life begins at 40" Interesting theory, I just have one problem with it---Tina.!. Why would Tina boot her closest ally at this point of the game? Tina has already saved Keith's ass twice (Mitchell vote & pole-standing IC) It would be foolish for her to get rid of the one individual who: 1) owes her TWO favors 2) has the most in common with her. (AGE) Keith and Tina are both 40--Tina has already expressed her fear of the younger people uniting against the older. (Remember Jerri's canoe-stealing incident) Voting off Keith would just tip the scales in favor of the twenty-somethings. For these reasons, I just can't imagine Tina voting against Keith in the next 2 or 3 episodes. She's too clever. As for the "promise made early in the game", This was broken around E4, so all bets are off.   Top

Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-27-01, 02:52 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Life begins at 40" LAST EDITED ON 03-27-01 AT 02:57 PM (EST) You are believing everything that MB is showing you. Sure it "looks" as though Kieth and Tina are best buddies but what if Tina's playing the game. I already gave NUMEROUS reasons why she would pretend to align with Kieth. He was the odd man out and as such was a problematic factor. OK, here are some other points... 1. You say she broke the alliance when she ousted Mitchell. A) Isn't it just possible that having lost three immunities in a row, they knew that they needed Kieth's strength to even have a chance at making the merger with an even amount of people? If that was the case then one of the "Jerri's Kids Alliance" members had to be sacriiced. Now Mitchell himself said "Vote for me, i'm weak and not as good as Kieth". Why would he do that? Sure he may have said that he was suprised that he saw his name on a vote from Colby but couldn't he be lying? 2. If it was a plan to vote off Mitchell then why didn't Jerri and Amber vote for him as well? A) It made the whole "Tina and Colby breaking the alliance and joining with Kieth" idea much more believeable. If you were Kieth and all of a sudden everyone votes off Mitchell instead of you then you know somethings up. But, if Colby and Tina explain to you that they want to save you because we "need" you to make the merger and then Jerri and Amber vote for you, then you might just fall for it. 3. You state that Kieth is her closest ally. A) Just because that is what we are being shown does not mean that it is true. I believe that I have given enough reason to believe that it is possible that Tina is "playing" Kieth, as is Colby. 4. He owes her two favors. A) What does she care about favors when she is guaranteed final 4. In fact wouldn't it be nice to be able to count on one of those favors if you made the final 2? Besides, if you were Kieth and the final 2 were Tina and Jerri, who would you vote for? Not to mention how "unhappy" Tina was with giving Kieth the win during the "Standing on Poles" challenge. I believe that the reason why she gave it to him was that it benefited her true alliance in that Kieth could not be voted off and thus the odds of Ogakor taking the majority greatly improved. the fact that it made Kieth trust her all the more was a nice side effect. 5. They are the closest in age. A) Who gives a damn about age when you are trying to win a million bucks. She is probably hoping to make the final 4 and then get rid of Colby (since he is the strongest) or Amber (she is the sweetest) first making it to the final 3. She has probably been told that this is the case by either Jerri or both Jerri and Colby. From there she has a decent chance of winning the final immunity and thus being against Jerri in the finals, thus an autowin for a million bucks. Now is the reason why you can't imagine Tina doing this because logically it makes NO sense or because what you have been shown makes it appear as thouh it makes no sense? Conspiracy Jim "Ya, sure we went to the moon"!!!   Top

Goblin 24 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 03-27-01, 03:13 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Life begins at 40" CJ, I read your earlier thread about Tina still being part of Jerri's Kids and one poster brought up the "Hyena's in the Dark" scene with Colby, Jerri and Amber. How do you explain that scene in line with your theory that Tina is still part of the Jerri's Kids alliance?   Top

Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-27-01, 04:06 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Life begins at 40" This one is actually very easy to explain... Amber and Jerri just got back from eating an amazing dinner. It's human nature that while you are away, especially since the two that were away were the "dynamic duo", that the others would talk about you. This caused obvious tension when they got back. Lets face it, the others were jelous, even if they didn't show it out right and talked a good game with "dinner was actually very good", etc. Jerri and Amber felt like outsiders for a while so this made them nervous. Jerri and Amber, the moment that they saw Colby alone, wanted to confirm that everything is still according to plan. If you remember, the show was focusing on their conversation and then went away... Why? Because, MB didn't want us to hear/see what they were talking abaout. If the final show ended with Tina/Kieth and Colby ousting Jerri and Amber, would they show this to us now? Of course not, they want (which makes for great TV) us to be suprised. That's why we're here, to screw that up!!! If you remember, when they pan'd back to Colby, Jerri and Amber, they were hugging as if Colby had just confirmed that everything is OK. Then we saw an alone shot of Colby of him saying "I had to lie but I don't mind it since it was Jerri"!!! Now why would he say this?... Because he was asked to or maybe because Kieth was within ear shot. We learned from season one that the show has the challengers essentially "LIE" to us to tell a good story. Rich did it in season one. Why should we believe that this would not happen again this season? Conspiracy Jim "Ya, sure we went to the moon"!!!   Top

Goblin 24 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 03-27-01, 04:33 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Life begins at 40" What we did hear Jerri say was "how about if you lead Keith AND TINA to believe that it will be you three in the final three" and Colby says, "Oh, they already think that." Why would she include Tina in that? I agree MB likes to make things seem as if they're talking about one thing when it's really something else, but this seemed pretty straighforward. From MB's point of view I think he was indeed trying to make us believe that Colby is going to turn on Jerri and Amber and go with Keith and Tina when, in fact, he ends up staying with Jerri and Amber.   Top

GG 142 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-27-01, 04:29 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Life begins at 40" CJ, I like your rationale alot. Indeed, the fact Keith owes Tina two favours is irrelevant. Well not entirely - if anything it would make Tina's sell that much easier and convincing. Keith has no reason to doubt her after all. The only slight query I have is the timing. If Ogakor picked off the remaining Kuchas (one of them winning IC excepted), wouldn't your thinking still hold true? If and when there is an all Ogakor final five, the Tina/Colby/Jerri alliance can boot Keith then. Come to think of it, it could be carried out in any of the next 3 or 4 episodes. Nevertheless, you seem to be intimating that Tina is the brains behind all this. I agree. In fact, she appears to be the most two-faced of them all so far. Everyone she's befriended thus far has got the boot. In which case Elisabeth's head is on the chopper block already. One more thought. What if it's the other way round and Keith betrays Tina? That would be shocking for sure. He could defect to Kucha and it would be 4 vs 4 again. Tina's brigade vote for Keith but Keith and his new cohorts vote either Jerri or Colby. Both have more previous votes. Kucha (plus Keith) are suddenly in charge again.   Top

annadad2 17 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 03-27-01, 03:52 PM (EST) 8. "RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT GETS THE BOOT!!!" LAST EDITED ON 03-27-01 AT 04:39 PM (EST) LAST EDITED ON 03-27-01 AT 04:35 PM (EST) Sorry to rain on your flag of Texas CJ but there is a hole in your very interesting "Tina as double agent/original Jerri's Kid" theory resulting in Keith getting booted in a "shocking twist" this week. As I understand your theory, Tina is one of the original Jerri's Kids and still is. She dupes Keith into thinking that her and Colby are allied with him when they boot off Mitchell so that he stays with them come the merger as opposed to bolting to the Kuchas. The reality though, under your theory, is that Tina, Colby, Dimber and Jerri are the real alliance and, fearing Keith's two in a row win streak in ICs, this alliance votes him off this week. A couple problems I see are: The Mitchell boot was in Ep 4, well before the merger, your theory includes Tina and Colby joining Keith in a fake alliance so that Keith doesn't "jump ship and join up with Kucha". Were they really worried about this in Ep. 4 already? The merger was a long way away at that point and who could possibly know what the post merger situation was going to be. Remember that Mitchell was definitely part of the Jerri alliance, maybe even Jerri's first member. We know this from Mitchell's recent speech. For Jerri, Tina, Dimber and Colby to come up with an elaborate ruse to vote off Mitchell and fool Keith into thinking he was in an alliance with Tina/Colby so that 3-4 TCs later he wouldn't join the Kuchas is a little much. Why not just simply vote Mitchell off 5-1, everyone voting for Mitchell except for Mitchell himself? Why was it necessary for Dimber and Jerri to vote for Keith? The vote was 3-3 and Mitchell lost the tiebreaker. From his recent speech, we know how it went down: Tina came up to him and suggested that they vote off Amber because they needed Keith for the ICs which they were losing left and right. Mitchell tells us he hooked up with Jerri in an alliance the first day and that before they voted Kel off, the alliance included Amber, Colby and Tina. We know for a fact that Tina was a Jerri's kid. Still, there she was trying to get rid of a fellow "kid" to save Keith and hopefully stop the IC losing streak. Mitchell refused to betray Dimber but Tina persisted, "how about Jerri?" she suggested. Here was one of Jerri's kids, ready to sacrifice the founder of the alliance already. No dice, Mitchell wouldn't bite. She then went and talked to Colby. Logically, wouldn't she have used the same stratagem with Colby? Amber is the weakest link in the ICs and they are getting killed in the ICs so Tina would make the same suggestion to Colby as she did to Mitchell: lets keep Keith and dump weak link Dimber. Dimber, as we all know, is still here which means that Colby refused Tina's idea. Tina then would have suggested Jerri as the target, again Colby must have refused because she is still there. Next, Tina says hey, why not Mitchell? The rest is history. Maybe Tina changed tactics and went up to Colby and started with Mitchell right away. Some could argue that Mitchell was weaker than Amber and Jerri in ICs but if that is true, why did Tina start with Mitchell? Tina was only doing this to improve tribe strength for ICs, therefore she must have thought that Dimber and Jerri in that order were the weakest tribe members so she starts talking with Mitchell first and suggests first Amber and then Jerri as the evening's bootee. Tina's loyalty to the Jerri's Kids alliance died in Ep 4. Mitchell's recent speech confirms that. She turned on not one, not two but three of the alliance members: Amber, Jerri and Mitchell. The third one was the charm. If the real alliance is Colby, Tina, Jerri and Amber and they are going to oust Keith this week, where was Tina in the midnight three way plot conversation between Colby, Amber and Jerri in the last episode? Why was Jerri asking Colby to fool Keith AND Tina into thinking he was allied with the TWO of them if, in fact, Tina is in the alliance with Colby, Amber and Jerri? What would be the purpose of fooling Tina? I think the real scenario is simple and direct. Jerri forms an alliance with Mitchell and Amber and they add Colby and Tina. Jerri's Kids is born. Colby tries to get into a sub-alliance with Jerri and Amber (in Ep 4, while pig hunting, Colby expressly renews this offer and Jerri ignores him). They put him off because they are already in a sub-alliance with Mitchell. Then the losing streak hits. Tina is smart and realizes that she is an outsider in the 5 person alliance. She also knows that 5 people is an unwieldy alliance that must turn on itself even before the final 4 or even sooner depending on the vagaries of IC outcomes. Tina knows that down the road, when the alliance must end, she will be the first casualty. She also knows, as does everyone, that if the Ogies don't start winning ICs, they are history. Desperate to avoid that fate, she tries to talk Mitchell into ousting Amber or Jerri and keeping the stronger Keith. He refuses so she goes to Colby with the same ideas, he also refuses so she adds another name: Mitchell. Colby agrees and Mitchell is history. The Jerri's Kids alliance is toast. Query: What are the odds that Colby doesn't tell Amber and Jerri how the whole Mitchell ousting went down including Tina's first choices of Amber and Jerri? Answer: next to nil. As long as Tina and Keith are on one side and Amber and Jerri on the other, Colby can keep being the powerful and pivotal swing vote he so likes to be. You know Jerri and Amber "dragged" it out of him. That means that Jerri and Amber know that Tina is not their ally and never will be. They would be morons to trust her again. Even if your theory is correct, timing wise, why would they want to get rid of Keith now? He won one IC because Tina gave it to him and the other was luck. Why the rush to get him off now? I absolutely agree with you that Jerri is proably here until Ep. 11 but I think your Keith idea is the result of trying too hard to figure out what the "shocking twist" could be. Logic has proved to be the best spoiler along with statements from the bootees. That "twist" could be anything: Roger and Lis have a fight. An unlikely person wins immunity, Roger? Amber and Jerri have a fight. Keith and Tina have a fight. Animals eat their rice. A romance develops. A storm comes. An expected storm doesn't come. Etc. All these could happen and still have no effect on the tribal voting patterns we have seen without fail so far.   Top

Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-27-01, 04:39 PM (EST) 12. "RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT GETS THE BOOT!!!" LAST EDITED ON 03-27-01 AT 04:49 PM (EST) LAST EDITED ON 03-27-01 AT 04:46 PM (EST) WOW!!! OK, here we go... One at a time... The Mitchell boot was in Ep 4, well before the merger, your theory includes Tina and Colby joining Keith in a fake alliance so that Keith doesn't "jump ship and join up with Kucha". Were they really worried about this in Ep. 4 already? The merger was a long way away at that point and who could possibly know what the post merger situation was going to be. Remember that Mitchell was definitely part of the Jerri alliance, maybe even Jerri's first member. We know this from Mitchell's recent speech. For Jerri, Tina, Dimber and Colby to come up with an elaborate ruse to vote off Mitchell and fool Keith into thinking he was in an alliance with Tina/Colby so that 3-4 TCs later he wouldn't join the Kuchas is a little much. Why not just simply vote Mitchell off 5-1, everyone voting for Mitchell except for Mitchell himself? Why was it necessary for Dimber and Jerri to vote for Keith? Answer: Well, I already explained this one in detail. We know for a FACT that they were thinking about making it to merger with at least an even amount of members. At this point Kieth was the sole non-Jerri's Kids tribesman. Colby knew, and likely recommended, that they needed to keep Kieth because his strength would be needed to make it to merger even at best. That meant that they had to win the next two IC's. Now, for this to work Jerri's Kids would first, have to oust one of their own and second, ensure that Kieth would not join up with the other team at the wrong time. Having Jerri, Mitchell and Amber vote for Kieth and have Colby and Tina "allign" with Kieth thus the vote off would be a tie thus resulting in Mitchell going. We even know from Mitchell that this was Tina and Colby's idea. Of course Kieth would believe it, after all, didn't Jerri and Amber vote for him? If Jerri and Amber had voted for Mitchell then Kieth would have known that it was a plan. Of course Jerri and Amber wouldn't vote for Mitchell, that would just be giving away their plans. ------------------------------------------------------------- Tina came up to him and suggested that they vote off Amber because they needed Keith for the ICs which they were losing left and right. Mitchell tells us he hooked up with Jerri in an alliance the first day and that before they voted Kel off, the alliance included Amber, Colby and Tina. We know for a fact that Tina was a Jerri's kid. Still, there she was trying to get rid of a fellow "kid" to save Keith and hopefully stop the IC losing streak. Mitchell refused to betray Dimber but Tina persisted, "how about Jerri?" she suggested. Here was one of Jerri's kids, ready to sacrifice the founder of the alliance already. No dice, Mitchell wouldn't bite. She then went and talked to Colby. Answer: So you believe everything that the ex-Survivors say? Don't be so gullible. Hey, did you know that gullible is not in the dictionary? -------------------------------------------------------------- If the real alliance is Colby, Tina, Jerri and Amber and they are going to oust Keith tonight, where was Tina in the midnight three way plot conversation between Colby, Amber and Jerri in the last episode? Answer: Now how would it look to Kieth if Tina, Colby, Amber and Jerri snuck off and had a quiet conversation. Wouldn't he suspect something. This way Tina stays with him and makes him feel as though Colby is playing Jerri and Amber. -------------------------------------------------------------- Why was Jerri asking Colby to fool Keith AND Tina into thinking he was allied with the TWO of them if, in fact, Tina is in the alliance with Colby, Amber and Jerri? What would be the purpose of fooling Tina? Answer: Actually we never heard her say that. Colby "explained" that to us when he was filmed in the one on one video, but we know from past experience that we can not always trust what is being said during the one on one's. --------------------------------------------------------------- That means that Jerri and Amber know that Tina is not their ally and never will be. They would be morons to trust her again. Answer: Once again, this is only if you believe everything you hear or read from the ex-Survivors. --------------------------------------------------------------- Even if your theory is correct, timing wise, why would they want to get rid of Keith now? He won one IC because Tina gave it to him and the other was luck. Why the rush to get him off now? Answer: Actually numerous reasons. First he is one of the strongest people left. Second only to Colby. He is educated and thus intelligent. This makes him a continued immunity threat. Second, this is the first time that they can get rid of him and still maintain an advantage over Kucha. If they get rid of Kieth this week then it is still 4-3 Ogakor's favor. From there they can just pick off Kucha one at a time and hope that the last Kucha doesn't win the EP 12 immunity. Third, Jerri doesn't like Kieth so why would she want to keep him around. She may also fear that the remaining Kucha might just talk Kieth and someone else (Tina), into joining up with them. Getting rid of him now breaks up any chance of that happening. Besides after returning fro dinner the other night Jerri and Amber are probably nervous of this happening. Also, when it comes down to it, Kieth is the bigger threat as compared to each of the remaining Kucha. ---------------------------------------------------------------- I absolutely agree with you that Jerri is proably here until Ep. 11 but I think your Keith idea is the result of trying too hard to figure out what the "shocking twist" could be. Logic has proved to be the best spoiler along with statements from the bootees. That "twist" could be anything: Answer: Well, I can't deny that the "shocking twist that will have people talking" does definitely sway me towards this being a possibility. When it comes down to it, i'm not sure if I fully believe that this is the case, I gues that I just wouldn't be suprised at this point if it's true. We will know for sure in two days. I bet IF Kieth does get the boot you will agree with my logic then? Besides, the CBS site's previews have never lied. Sure they are misleading, but they have never been wrong. For us to "be talking in the morning" about the person who got the boot, it would mean that it would have to be someone other than... Liz, Roger, Nik or Jerri. These are all expecte by the "normal" viewing audience. Even we all expect it to be one of the Kucharians. The only way that it would be a suprise would be for it to be either... Colby, Amber or Kieth. Now my Kieth scenerio makes the most sense but Colby could possibly be the one. How cool would that be? Jerri gets him alone, seduces him, then goes Black Widow on him. I don't think it will happen, at least not yet. For Colby to get the boot it would mean that either Kieth is alligned with Jerri's Kids (I can't see that) or one of the Kucha (hmmm?). Maybe this is how Liz makes it to the final 4. Gotta admit I would shite if it is Colby this week. Now the Twist that will have people talking in the morning would have to be something major. I fully, as do some, expect Colby and Jerri to hook up after winning the Reward Challenge - so this wouldn't be a suprise. We know that a rain storm is going to wash away their camp - no suprise. Now Kieth getting voted off... A BIG F#@$ING SUPRISE, if it happens. Only time (2 days, 2 hours, 19 minutes and 21 seconds to be exact) will tell. Conspiracy Jim "Ya, sure we went to the moon"!!!   Top

weltek 16936 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-27-01, 05:09 PM (EST) 13. "Just can't buy it" I agree that it could be a possible scenario that Keith gets booted, but I think the whole theory is too far fetched. None of your theory seems to have any real evidence. It just seems like this takes too much imagination for it to really happen on the show. I thought the person who argued all points of your theory did a very good job and your comebacks were not real convincing. What reason do the ex survivors have to lie? Discrediting themselves isn't going to do much for any future careers. I'm sure they feel no obligation to lie to the public. Twist words to keep people wondering? Yes, I'm sure they do that. I just don't think we have to read this much into things to see what will happen. Some very plausible theories have come about Amber going and being the big surprise. I mean absolutely no disrespect to you CJ. I respect all of your theories, but I believe your best theories are based on solid evidence, this one just happens to be mostly pure imagination/speculation. The only way I see Keith going is if Jerri and Amber approach the Kuchas. I don't think it would be a Tina 007 maneuver that would oust him.   Top

AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 03-27-01, 09:11 PM (EST) 20. "Nope" Sorry, CJ, but I'm with annadad2 and weltek on this one, even though (as I have expressed before) I don't think Tina believes she has an alliance with Keith. I think the real alliance is between Colby and Tina, as expressed in Mitchell's comments (more on that in a moment). I think Colby and Tina decided they needed Keith for team ICs and kept him around. I agree that they don't need him now for that reason. But they do need to maintain an OGAKOR MAJORITY. And, after all, which of the Ogakors is the LEAST likely to defect to Kucha on his own? Under no circumstances do I believe that the "hidden" alliance (Colby and Tina) involves Jerri and Amber. Tina would have merited the Oscar the other night if she was actually allied with Jerri and just feigning her anger and disgust about Jerri. Last point: I do think people landed on the moon, and I also think that Mitchell's comments were genuine. I would use "gullible" (it's in my dictionary, defined as "easily deceived or duped") to describe people who believe that each of the ex-survivors will lie as nicely as MB would like them to do. Mitchell isn't the sharpest crayon in the box, and I think any attempt by him to concoct an elaborate MB-style hoax in his speech (even with MB's help) would fail in the grand manner. And, while the survivors are perfectly capable of lying to the camera, these guys learned the "Richard Hatch" rule -- telling the camera the truth is the best way to get on TV; MB will just selectively edit the truth to get whatever effect he wants. Ultimately, Occam's Razor comes into play here: we can either believe that the survivors themselves (not just MB) are involved in an intricate plot of deception, or we can simply believe that most of what we've heard is true. The simplest solution is the latter. Only in the intricately complicated solution is Keith in danger from Ogakor. Therefore, Occam's Razor says Keith is not in danger from Ogakor.   Top

annadad2 17 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 03-28-01, 04:19 PM (EST) 22. "RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT GETS THE BOOT!!!" LAST EDITED ON 03-28-01 AT 04:45 PM (EST) CJ-Sorry if anything I posted made it sound as if I thought your Keith idea was ridiculous. Actually, I obviously found it very interesting. Reasonable minds can clearly disagree over the plausibility of the idea however. Just in case the horse isn't quite dead yet, I do have some comments to your response for the purpose of further demonstrating my apparent gullibility. > >Answer: So you believe everything >that the ex-Survivors say? >Don't be so gullible. >Hey, did you know that >gullible is not in the >dictionary? > Isn't part of your theory based on Keith getting voted out being the "shocking twist" referred to in the highlights? Why is that more trustworthy than the chats of ex-survivors? Didn't Debb's chat about who she was friends with prove to be right on the money as the most accurate spoiler so far? I think Mad Dog's list of her friends ended up being pretty accurate as well. If we discount everything every survivor says either on the show or after they are booted then aren't all of our theories based pretty much on nothing more than our imaginations? I just think that so far, ex-survivor chats have been full of reliable spoilers which is why every time one of them says anything, we are picking it apart on this board almost immediately. > > >Why was Jerri asking Colby to >fool Keith AND Tina into >thinking he was allied with >the TWO of them if, >in fact, Tina is in >the alliance with Colby, Amber >and Jerri? What would be >the purpose of fooling Tina? > > >Answer: Actually we never heard >her say that. Colby >"explained" that to us when >he was filmed in the >one on one video, but >we know from past experience >that we can not always >trust what is being said >during the one on one's. > Yeah, we did. Amber came walking up to them and Jerri told her that she was explaining to Colby how she thought it was a good idea for him to let Keith and Tina believe that he was allied with them. Then she told Amber that Colby told her something that she wasn't aware of. Colby then explained how he has already lulled them into thinking that he was with them to the final three. Jerri then said something like "See? I didn't know that, why didn't you tell us" In the one on one he said that he lied to Jerri and he didn't have a choice and further, lying to anyone bothered him but because it was Jerri, it didn't. If Tina is a still a Jerri's kid and that evil alliance is still in effect, why were three kids talking about fooling Tina when Tina is one of them and part of the ruse to begin with? ---------- >--------------------------------------------------------------- > >Even if your theory is correct, >timing wise, why would they >want to get rid of >Keith now? He won one >IC because Tina gave it >to him and the other >was luck. Why the rush >to get him off now? > > >Answer: Actually numerous reasons. >First he is one of >the strongest people left. >Second only to Colby. Why not an elaborate scheme to fool Colby into thinking he is the all powerful swing vote in the fab five only to cut him down when the timing is right? If you are going to scheme, why not go after the strongest instead of the second strongest? Besides, post-merger immunity challenges tend to rely on skills other than brute strength (balance and endurance-standing on post)(luck and half a brain-making squares challenge). >He is educated and thus >intelligent. This makes him >a continued immunity threat. Nick is much smarter, ditto Lis. Is Keith so much smarter that he must go now rather than later? >Second, this is the first >time that they can get >rid of him and still >maintain an advantage over Kucha. > If they get rid >of Kieth this week then >it is still 4-3 Ogakor's >favor. From there they >can just pick off Kucha >one at a time and >hope that the last Kucha >doesn't win the EP 12 >immunity. Yes, this is the first time they can vote him out and keep a majority but they could vote him out next time or the time after and that would still be true, why does he have to go now? >Third, Jerri doesn't >like Kieth so why would >she want to keep him >around. With a million bucks on the line, likes and dislikes don't matter. Why would she want him around? Jerri must think there is someone she can win a jury vote against despite her having ticked off just about everyone in both tribes. If you were Jerri, who would you want to go up against in the final vote? The cranky chef would be an excellent choice. >She may also >fear that the remaining Kucha >might just talk Kieth and >someone else (Tina), into joining >up with them. Getting >rid of him now breaks >up any chance of that >happening. But in your theory, Tina is with Colby, Amber and Jerri, now you have Jerri worried that Tina will not only defect to Keith but then the both of them defect over to Kucha all so they could end up part of the final 5 that they are already guaranteed if they just keep voting on tribal lines. The kicker is that getting rid of Keith now doesn't break "up any chance of that happening". If they vote Keith out in Ep 9, the vote tally is 4 Ogies to 3 Kucha. If Tina defects to Kucha, she forces a tie vote, 4-4 and Jerri has 6 prior votes. If Jerri is worried that Tina will defect as you say, voting out Keith won't help. >> I bet IF Kieth >does get the boot you >will agree with my logic >then? Not only will I agree but I will claim it was really my theory all along. Hey, I'm flexible, so kill me. >Now the Twist that will have >people talking in the morning >would have to be something >major. I fully, as >do some, expect Colby and >Jerri to hook up after >winning the Reward Challenge - >so this wouldn't be a >suprise. We know that >a rain storm is going >to wash away their camp >- no suprise. Now >Kieth getting voted off... Don't be too sure about the rain storm, didn't they have us convinced that one of the tribes had to move their camp because of a forest fire? Never happened. Still, it was the subject of a lot of speculation on the boards. Remember the CBS preview about a conflict that makes Tina call for a timeout or something like that? Yeah it was true but it was not a big deal. Even so, that preview fueled all sorts of speculation about what would really happen and what the effect might be on voting and all. Keith getting voted off would be a surprise but so would a lot of things. Any Ogie getting voted off would be a surprise. The Episode itself could completely convince us that Jerri is finally history and then bang, another Kucha falls anyway, sound familiar? Gotta go, horse finally dead.   Top

5Foot3 81 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 03-27-01, 06:02 PM (EST) 15. "RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT GETS THE BOOT!!!" LAST EDITED ON 03-27-01 AT 06:05 PM (EST) I totally agree with you and Mark Burnett and his "something shocking". It could be anything. Something I am now wondering is if it is Amber that shocks us all. She leaves her tribe and joins forces with Kucha. Why would she do this? On the last real episode we heard Amber say that she didn't like the way she felt when her and Jerri got back from dinner. Maybe she now realizes that Jerri is going to drag her. I honestly believe that Amber is a lot smarter than what most of us give her credit for. She has to be smarter, she just has to be... With the alliances now even at four and four Liz, Rodger, Nick and Amber could vote for Jerri and Ogakor members could do nothing because of that tie breaker rule. I'm new at this so please let me know what you think about this... *Remember that the best things in life come in small packages   Top

MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 03-27-01, 05:47 PM (EST) 14. "One Question....." So when Jerri came back from the boomerang reward challenge, was that all just an act by Colby for the American public, telling Jerri that Keith and Tina still believe that he will be with them to the final two. I think not. Tina and Keith are a group, and it is possible that this could change in the upcoming episodes, but it would not be because Tina was a member of Jerri's kids. She has been with Keith all along, and there was a point when she feared for her own survival(when Mitch got the boot), because of Jerri's kids. She may join Jerri to vote out Keith now, but I highly doubt it. At this point she believes that Colby and Keith are with her to the end. I can not agree with your logic on this one. From what we have seen so far, logically we can not infer what you have stated. We can speculate but I do not feel it is based on fact.   Top

missalex 35 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 03-27-01, 06:51 PM (EST) 17. "RE: One Question....." I pretty much agree with this theory...sounds good. Just to add to this: wasn't it Keith who said something like "we will sacrifice an Ogakor this week," then showing us flashes of some of the Ogawhores? That would be typical Markie Burn-it to show us something that (insert name here) said that we would like, as we all want an Ogawhore gone (i.e. Scerri), THEN HAVING THAT PERSON GET KICKED OFF. Very typical Burn-it...   Top

Beth57 2 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 03-27-01, 08:11 PM (EST) 18. "RE: One Question....." New here. Just wanted to add that in the original article about Keith's Rainbow Connection Charity event in the Detroit FreePress - www.detroitfreepress.com, the article stated that possibly Tina and Roger were going to attend. Later I have heard that they are not. Anyway, if Tina betrays Keith, why would he even want her to attend this function?   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-27-01, 09:10 PM (EST) 19. "RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT GETS THE BOOT!!!" I certainly agree with you on one thing: It most absolutely DEFINITELY will be a "shocking twist" if Keith is voted out next!!! First, CJ, I noticed that some of what you based this on is your "Tina is still part of the Jerricorps" theory, which I absolutely and emphatically disagree with. Second, here are some obstacles for you to hurdle: 1) Remembering that if a Kucha is ousted, your theory is blasted anyway, then we're assuming that an Ogie will definitely fall. Now *WHO* would vote for Keith over Jerri??? a) Rodger? Keith and Rodger have been fishing together. When Keith won his second IC, Rodger slapped him on the back and congratulated him. Sucking up? Maybe, but I don't think so: Rodger is a good and decent person and was likely genuine in his congratulation. b) Lis? Perhaps a review of Ep. 8 is all we need to suggest. c) Nick? Maybe, but he's so low under the radar we have no idea what he'll do. He'll vote as the other Kuchas do (and that is likely for Jerri again). d) Colby? It would be safer for Colby to vote Jerri out. Colby might vote for Keith if he (Colby) knew that Jerri would be gone, in order to give Keith some extra votes for the future. But if Colby is smart, he'll quit playing both sides of Ogakor and choose sides, and that means booting Jerri and giving Amber and Tina pickle tickles e) Tina? First, Tina has stated that she would prefer for the "nice" people to win. Who does she think is a "nice" person when choosing between Keith and Jerri? No contest there. Plus, if Tina voted Keith off, just where does she expect to amass an alliance that will get her to the Final Three? I know, you say she's in the Jerricorps, but I disagree and think if she bombs Keith, her chances of winning are GREATLY reduced. f) Amber? Amber is going to vote the way COLBY wants her to. She might vote for Keith if Jerri is certain to be waxed, but she'll vote however Colby tells her. Notice that I said she would vote with Colby and **NOT** Jerri. g) Jerri? Wouldn't surprise me a bit if she did. 2) The "shocking twist" can be anything, including the below possibilities: a) Tornado. b) Other natural disaster (camp washed away by river) c) Someone twists an ankle or shoulder or is otherwise injured. Remember that Mike's injury was previewed as "When the unthinkable happens at Kucha..." d) Someone gets pickle tickled Okay, just kidding about this one.. UNLESS Jerri catches Colby and Amber and beats up Amber in a jealous rage... e) Rodger wins the reward or immunity challenge. f) Amber wins the reward or immunity challenge. g) Nick says something! Time will tell. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

e4c5 12 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 03-28-01, 04:45 PM (EST) 23. "RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT GETS THE BOOT!!!" As an aside, CJ, your theory here is consistent wiht Keith's absence from the cooking photo. Could be you've stumbled on to something after all.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-28-01, 04:48 PM (EST) 24. "RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT GETS THE BOOT!!!" e4c5, I like your name!!! Those are my first two moves also! *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged "If I were perfect, I'd run for God." -- Corporal Maxwell Q. Klinger, 4077th MASH   Top

e4c5 12 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 03-28-01, 05:02 PM (EST) 25. "RE: WHY IT JUST MIGHT BE KIETH THAT GETS THE BOOT!!!" >e4c5, I like your name!!! >Those are my first two >moves also! Thanks, SD. I wish I knew what came next... (Sorry OT)   Top

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