LAST EDITED ON 04-28-09 AT 07:12 AM (EST)

GREAT observations and thoughts everyone...here is my take...

Previously on Survivor: At newly merged, Forza, Coach and Tyson put together an alliance, and they targeted one of their own. While Sierra and Brendan tried to pull in the Jalapao 3, setting the stage for a show down between Brendan and Coach. "When it comes head to head, we'll see who really was the chosen one", and the old Jalopao tribe found themselves in an unlikely position. JT said to Stephen, "Would you say that we're in control of this game right now?" and Stephen replied, "yes, I'd definately say that we are in control of this game right now." At the IC, Tyson won his 2nd immunity in a row, and at TC, Brendan thought his plan was in the bag, and didn't play his idol. The old Jalapao tribe sided with Coach's alliance, first member of the jury was Brendan, leaving Sierra in an alliance of one, 8 are left, who will be voted out tonight?

Forza, Night 24:
Coach: "How awesome was that?",
Erinn: "Awesome!",
Tyson: "Sierra, you've got to admit...",
Sierra: "Yeah, you guys are...",
Tyson: "Pretty bad #####!"
Sierra: "Obviously, I know I'm the next to go,(Stephen and JT are shown, as though her selection as the boot is dependent on them), let's just try and make these next couple days congenial, I guess, whatever..."
Sierra in Confessional: "Last night was probably the worst night I've had out here, and right now I'm just tried and kinda hurt and I just wanna disappear..."
Sierra: "Can I please have a conversation with you?" Coach agrees...
Confessional Sierra: "I don't think I'm a bed person for writing Coach's name down, although it was a very hard choice to make...
To Coach: "I've never planned on ever voting for you and I'm being 100% honest with you..."
Coach: Every decision you've made is bad, yu could have written down anybody elses name in this game that doesn't have the character that I have...Everybody out here has lied except or me..."
Sierra: "You're right..."
Coach in confessional: "I knew that Sierra would want to assuage her guilt, massage it, make herself feel rationalized and justified inside, that's what we do when we make poor decisions in life..."
Coach to Sierra: "But, you have to realize something, in war...in love and war, it's kill or be killed, so you pitted yourself against me, and Brendan pitted himself against me, who deserves to go next?"

The introductory scene is all about Sierra back peddling and making the appeal to the self proclaimed leader, Coach...the stage is set for the entire episode and Sierra is starring in the featured role as prime boot candidate, which we now know is classic misdirection...

Cut to Survivor theme...

Forza, Day 25: Hawk flying overhead, with a native music playing, as they zoom in on Coach in the water during morning meditation...

Coach in confessional: "I came down to the water this morning to celebrate the victory over Brendan. Throughout the entrie meditation there was this feeling of peace, that just kinda settled over me and permeated my every fiber. For me to pit myself against somebody who is younger than me, that is faster than me, and may be stronger than me, although I bench press 300# and we were talking 3 days ago and he was like, really? Because, he doesn't do that...

...to defeat a worthy opponent like that, at this stage of the game, the peice de resistance, the dragon slayer has vanquished the dragon once and for all....as he screams on the rock, "OVER!" "The battle has already been won, victory is mine!" Cut to Tai chi and zoom out...

Coach is seen basking in his victory...I can't help but wonder how he will react if he fails at some point...

Sierra says to the tribe: "Well, it just all started with the way I started off with a rocky start and I latched onto someone else, I guess I was blinded, so I'm not gonna even say that I was'nt...

JT Confessional: "Tribal Council went has planned, Brendan didn't have a clue what was coming. Sierra was really shocked. Stephen and I could have decided who went home last night and we decided. We went with the warrier alliance, with the way things are going, we are happy to have Sierra go next..."

I am concerned that JT may not win, as we see that he continues to be the narrator of events...

Then Sierra talks to Debbie and she notes: "But, he was holding what I thought was the most powerful thing in this game! He was holding the idol, so, therefore...
Tyson interrupts: "The most powerful thing is FRIENDS!"
(yes, Tyson, it is, and do you know who your friends are?)
Sierra then appeals to Tyson. She first apologizes for her bad choices, but he notes that she did go "on a massacre" against Coach, and he likes to see her scramble and mope, and it's funny...he notes that trust is the most important thing here(classic foreshadowing!), he notes that she wasn't smart enough to be the mastermind...he ends the conversation with: "I'm gonna be straight up, 100% honest with you right now, You are probably gonna be the next to go and you are not gonna be able to change that." This was followed by percussion that sounds like a rattle snake...I think, okay, a snake is going to thwart this plan and it squarely places Tyson as the one to be bitten...

Cut to Challenge:
Jiffy: "Divided into 2 teams of 4, on my go, 2 race to collect large puzzle boards, and bring back...next 2 go, have them all arrange in their slots then flip and rotate the boards so all holes line up, revealing 7 vowels. Then take those vowels with the 7 consonants and arrange to form a 4 word phrase. Winning team will be treated to local entertainment and local food.(we see Debbie, Erinn, and Sierra).
You'll be treated to Brazilian Martial Arts(see Taj and Coach is really excited), Dance, and music, and feast, winning team will send another to EI(see Deb, Erinn, Sierra, Taj)
Red team: JT, Deb, Erinn, Tyson
Black team: Coach, Stephen, Sierra, Taj
The race starts and Taj notes: "Damn, JT is so fast"
"Careful Taj, it'll snap your neck"
Ends and Debbie and Tyson hug, JT notes that Stephen's gotta go to EI...this challenge showed me that Debbie was better at puzzles than Erinn...which I will store for a rainy day...

JT in confessional: "Brendan's gone, the idol's out of play, thought there's another idol placed, Stephen's gotta go to ensure that Sierra doesn't get the idol if there is one placed out..."
Jiffy notes: "Coach you continue to lose out on these nice rewards, all that life experience, not helping you out here."
Coach: "No, I didn't line up boards like this out in the Amazon" ...a smile from Sierra and a salute from Coach...and I think that despite all of Coach's life experiences, they will not help him to win this game...as Jiffy has just noted

Cut to the reward...Erinn and Debbie were the two who tell us about it and I agree, Debbie had the connection to the Brazilian natives, while Erinn really did not...with her recap of how they ate, then danced, then she regurgitated...

Cut to Stephen on exile where he finds clue number 7 and dismisses that there is a new idol...now, Jiffy noted in his preview that the person sent to EI in this episode would have a life changing as well as game changing experience..??? So, I am led to believe that perhaps another idol has indeed been placed in the tree mail, but we aren't shown it...will it be shown later, or is Jiffy full of BS?

Forza, Day 26: Sierra is talking to Deb and Erinn and Coach are in the background, Erinn buts in to their conversation, "That's the choice you made", then later asks, "who's the other liars?", "I just want to know who you are talking about, if there are liars amongst us, I'd like to know who they are?" and Sierra: "Well, you'd be the last person that I'd tell..."
Erinn: "Oh...so, it's like that!," Erinn looks smug, amused, and arrogant to me.
Erinn: "Well, you are saying the same thing over and over and over again, and like I think we are just done here today." Sierra gets up to leave and tells them to eat without her...Erinn says, "OK".

Erinn ends the scene with a confessional: "As much as Sierra annoys me to death, and I think that she's so dumb she's right, everything she said is totally true! Once Sierra is no longer with us, the game will change! I am the one who is going to turn it all on it's head, GUILTY as charged!" (So, this tells me that Erinn has plans to align with the Jalapao 3, and turn on Coach and Tyson as soon as Sierra is gone...she does have a plan and a strategy, but will she really have an alliance that has her back, or will she be just a pawn to be used by others? I also can't dismiss that she, too, is starting to sound a little arrogant here.)

Forza, Day 27, we see a striking snake...Sierra goes and tries to appeal to Coach...where she asks him, "how do you save the kind enemy", and he notes that this is killing him to have this kid asking me to throw her a bone because she's going through so much trials, it breaks his heart...Sierra ends the scene with a glimmer of hope, but feels immunity is her only chance of pulling through this.

Cut to the IC:
AS the rain begins...Coach yells to Stephen, Stephen: "Hello, oh I missed you guys(as ERINN is seen). Taj and Tyson high five him. "I missed the body warmth(see Erinn, says, "get in here"), then he goes right over to his best buddy, JT, he hugs JT and squeezes in right between JT and Coach...
Jiffy: "ready to get to todays challenge (Taj seen)
Jiffy: "Tyson, take back the necklace, (JT seen, as though JT is the one that covets the necklace the most?)...Tyson is shivering.
"Tyson has had this both times it's been up for grabs, will he get it a third time? (Yes, that is the question of the hour!), we see them ALL shivering.
Jiffy: "Survivor version of shuffle board, person whose puck ends up closest to the center will win imunity and a guarenteed(Taj and Tyson seen) 1 in 7 shot at winning the million(Stephen shown) dollars(at the end of the statement, ERINN shown!)...Wow...this makes me think that either Stephen or Erinn will win the million dollars???!!!)
Jiffy: Losers go to TC where somebody will be voted out of this game. (Shot of all of them freezing). There is a twist. If you feel so confident that you don't need immunity, you can skip the challenge and instead you can eat...See Stephen and he says, "Oh God, thank you". "You each are gonna get a rock, if you want to play, show me the rock, if you want to eat, show me an empty hand."

JT, Stephen, and Coach choose to eat, Coach whispers to Tyson, "Thanks, man!"

Tyson in confessional: "So Coach is hungry enough to quit a game and eat pizza, (see JT). When do I get to eat my pizza, dude? I've been winning all these challenges, you know they should let me have pizza. They are not worried about sealing the deal to get rid of Sierra."

Then we hear storm and thunder...as we see JT, Stephen, Coach, eat as long as the challenge goes.

The challenge ensues...
Sierra is first, 3 shots, rotate the order. Sierra is short...
Taj goes a little long
Erinn, nobody having much luck yet
Tyson, all Tyson does is block the road for everybody else
2nd round:
Deb with a nice shot
Taj, Tyson gets a bump frm Taj, Tyson is the mark to beat
Erinn, lies inside of Tyson, Erinn is now the closest
Tyson is once again blocks the road
Sierra moves Tyson, and she is into the lead
Taj, nothing but a sand dune
Erinn knocks out Sierra's closest puck
Tyson increases his lead, still the mark to beat
Sierra knocks out Tyson, she is now the mark to beat
I think Tyson was the mark to beat this week, will Sierra become the mark to beat next week?
Coach confessional: "Wen Sierra is doing her little dance, I thought I might have screwed everything up, should I have been out there competing, yeah, I should have been..."
Deb, and she does, Debbie wins the IC, this challenge is over, drop it, Stephen and Debbie hug, "the Middle School Principal has a 1 in 7 shot of winning this game, as for the rest(Erinn shown) of you, after 27 days(Erinn shown), 1 of you, (Taj shown), is going home(Sierra shown) tonight...See Coach patting Sierra's back.
Sierra: "What I needed to do was win that IC and it didn't happen so a small part of me is "maybe that's my fate", but there is a large part of me that is praying for a miracle"

Cut to camp:
Tyson: Debbie, if I'd have known you were gonna win, I would of sat down and eaten a 1/2 a slice of pizza!
JT, the narrator tells us: "I'm excited you won, that could'nt have worked out any better...
Tyson notes to Debbie: "There is nothing awesomer than seeing someone celebrate before the game is over...did you see her dancing around?" I think, touchee, Tyson, you have been gloating and dancing around for weeks now, before the game is over.
Tyson in confessional: "I would have liked to have the IN again, thought I would of been a pretty bad #####, if I'd have won it for a 3rd time, but tonight TC is gonna be awesome, I'm hoping that Sierra will cry alot...

Cut to Erinn, Taj, Stephen in the tent:
Erinn:"I do not want to go to TC in the rain..."
Taj: "Oh God"
Erinn: "You know what we could do tonight? He doesn't have immunity"
Taj: "I know"
Stephen: "I think we might just take out Tyson. We might not get another chance".
Erinn: "That's true"
Stephen: "This is like a golden opportunity knocking, what the hell, I really like him, but, we're playing a freaking game for a million dollars!"
Taj: "Talk to JT, and let me know what you all want to do..."(I feel like Taj should be saying, just get this game over with, and tell me who the winner is at the end of it...she is letting everybody else play the game without her...she seems like she is on auto-pilot riding the strong coat tails of JT and Stephen)
Stephen: "Everyone at camp's just going to hate each other...
Stephen to Erinn: "You are 100% with us, right?"
Erinn: "Absolutely"

Erinn in Confessional: "Tyson is such a physical competitor, he may win every challenge out her, we got lucky today and someone else won, so we have to get rid of Tyson. and, this just might be the chance to do it. It could be Tyson or Sierra tonight."
"This is not an easy decision, but, I know that there is a no way I can win this game by just hanging out and letting other people make my decisions for me."

HUGE, HUGE, HUGE confessional for Erinn...FINALLY, she wakes up and tells us that she needs to start playing this game, much as Bob did when Marcus got the boot. To me, it was indeed Erinn, who gets the credit for suggesting Tyson as the target, and with this confessional, she TELLS us that it was her decision, not Stephen's. She is not going to be Sierra, who is the one that seems to just hang out and let others make decisions for her(Sierra will not win this game and now I think that Erinn will outlast her), nor is she going to be a Taj, that essentially does the same thing...as we just saw. BUT, and there is always a but, this also reminds me of the stellar episode that Brendan had, just prior to his boot episode, remember, he had laid low, Veruca noted his "low key" nature, and everybody was scared as Brendan had not given them any signs that he was with them, then, just as Erinn has not been with anyone but herself the entire game, and now is making decisions, just as Brendan did. Brendan told us that he held the cards, had the idol and wasn't afraid to use it, as michel noted, he was starting to sound arrogant, than BAM, was blindsided. Will Erinn suffer the same fate as Brendan and be blindsided? I think perhaps that will depend on whether or not we see her in the next episode feeling arrogant and too cocky, just as Brendan and Tyson and Coach are all feeling. We'll see, but alas, Erinn is clearly playing the game.

Stephen to Taj: "Do you think Erinn is solid?"
Taj: "I hope so" (as Coach hugs Erinn), then there is a spider seen....I think, hmmmm, is Erinn the spider that will come back and bite all of them?

JT and Stephen...JT: We got to decide what we're doing tonight...Who do you think is going home tonight? (JT is deferring to Stephen, imo...?)
Stephen: "I think it's going to be Tyson, it might be our only chance...
JT: "If we're doing it, that's a big move!"(Tyson seen in the foreground). I hate to make it this early because we are stuck with Sierra."
Stephen: "If we don't take out Tyson now, he could go on a run, and it happens every season someone goes on a run...let's make it you!"
JT: Smiles, "you've got alot of faith in me...are they looking at you?"
Stephen: "Sierra is. No."
JT: Sierra is a lying beyotch and I hate her."
Stephen: "I hate her, too".
JT: "And, I want to get her away from my face, dude."

JT in confessional: If we stick through with this plan that we're talking about, Stephen, myself, Erinn, and Taj, we get rid of Tyson, we could do it without talking to Sierra. We have the numbers, but, it's gonna go against the warrier alliance that Coach has worked so hard to build here, so it's gonna be a tough decision.

Coach to JT: "Recount the plan", JT says, "OK", Coach: "Sierra's going tonight, no brainer", JT: "OK", Of my top priorities at this point is to go to the 5 with the warrier alliance. It would be stupid if we made an alliance, gave it a name, banded the name about, talked about ourselves as warriers, then chickened out at the last second. I know I can trust you, and that's so important to me..."
JT: "You have my word" and we see them shake on it.
Confessional from JT: "It's really gonna crush Coach, if I go through with this move, to get rid of Tyson, it's really gonna crush him. I don't know what I'm gonna do, man!"

This scene shows the drama of the conflicted, JT. But, definately JT does not get the credit for blindsiding Tyson, yet, it appears as if he'll be the one to get the blame from Coach...hmmm?

TC ensues...Brendan was blindsided, Sierra you looked stunned...she was, but "nobody's blindsiding me today"...Tyson is not too concerned that it will be him as he's aligned with the right people...(ha), he loves everyone but Sierra. She points out how really strong Tyson is...Coach wants to go to the end with the worthy warriers, he is a man of his word, and JT can take that to the bank, and Coach can look in JT's eyes and knows he is a man of his word...Vote...

Tyson

And Jiffy notes that it is a battle to the end!

Clearly, this episode set up the boot to be between Sierra and Tyson and Tyson was indeed blindsided, just when he thought the game was his...clearly this episode featured Erinn...from someone who was at the bottom of the Timbira food chain for so long, she has flipped to a group that is receptive to her, and has started making her own decisions...Will it get her to the end, or if she starts owning all of the decisions, will she be blindsided soon? I don't know.

Regarding the other girls...Taj, Sierra, and Debbie...surely one of them will make it to the F3, but I don't give them really any credit for game play. Taj is clearly letting everyone else make all of the decisions, she is just a vote. I think Sierra's story was that she has survived, twice now, the impressions that EVERYBODY had of her, and Debbie, clearly is a tag-a-long as well that now has received a nice little bit on how she misses her kids. I don't see any of them as the winner.

Regarding my choice for winner, JT, he could just be that...my CHOICE for the winner. When is JT going to start winning some challenges, what is he waiting for, is he pulling a "Matty", and not going to win ANY? He does appear to be a narrator...but Stephen, while definitively had a journey spotlight last week, as per Bob and Earl, to me he's just a tool at this point, and at times has appeared to be a conflicted tool, not like a Yul winner at all, nor even a Todd....clearly, these two will make it to the final 4, but it will be interesting to see what happens from there...Stephen reminds us that this is a game for a million dollars...? I kind of think that Erinn is ripe for a near blindside, but I dunno...

The one with the finished story, imo, is indeed Sierra...we'll see!