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FWIW, When the question is phrased "the first match between whoever and whoeverelse" the first thing I thought of was the 2 of 3 scenario. First, that is more of a combat type situation (We've been trying to read in the War theme. right?) and Second, that would allow a reasonable scenario for Koror to win IC even though the most of the matches we are shown seem to show Ulong winning. Ibe and BJ seem to win their matches, but it's well within reason that they just win one match and that Tom and gregg come back to win two (Note the wound on Tom, He looks to me like he was a tough opponent).
I'll admit that the time factor weighs against this, even with stingy editing, that's at least 14 (probably 15-16) matches they have to fit in.
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -