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Since you're asking for a scenario where Jeff would get booted over Kim...
What if Kim rallies, a la Angie in E2? Angie was in the crosshairs in E1, and the primary focus was her poor IC performance. So what did she do? She went out and proved herself in the very next challenge.
What if Kim does the same? She knows she was a target for at least half the tribe in E2, and likely would've been booted had Ashlee not given up. She has to know her every move is being scrutinized.
Likewise, the promos for E2 put Angie in a very vulnerable light. She was quoted saying something to the effect of "I'm on the chopping block". This week, we have James talking about Kim's only use being her sexuality. It very well could be another typical MB red herring. James's comment, like Angie's in E2, is likely post-TC (but pre-RC) day-after kind of stuff. He's probably disappointed in Ashlee and disappointed that Kim's still around. Maybe she pulls it together.
Besides, if Jeff out-and-out quits on a challenge, it won't sit well with this group, especially if they think he's dogging it. They very easily could turn on him, especially if he goes Osten and starts whining about his plight. Would you want to keep around a guy whose morale is dead? Morgan kept Osten around, much to their own detriment.
I'm still on the fence, myself, as to who's going in E3. Both Kim and Jeff have too high a visibility for my liking. I'm just offering a scenario where the tribe votes Jeff out before Kim.
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -