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I'll try to sum up my previous thoughts in the 3rd edition of the BL BT BR thread (thanks misto )
Big lie is Osten. Not the swimming (though he is likely faking his swimming inability at least a little), but the quitting. He never wanted to quit. He wanted to remain UTR and being the big brawny guy, you've got a big target on your back. He does what he needs to when he needs to or at least puts in enough effort so he is still "needed" and let's them anticipate when he'll be "full strength" again.
The big lie is linked to the big twist, which is Lill returning to the game (too bad these recent Lil quotes seem to be making fun of us for believing this). She returns and somehow makes it to the final three and wins final three IC. This leads to the big regret.
Lill and Ryan S. seemed (at this point) to be the only ones who really disliked Osten's begging for votes. Lill was angry that Ryan S. was voted out over Osten when Osten said he wanted to go. So Lill decides to take whomever is left (Darrah...oh please let it NOT be Darrah - YUCK) to the F2 over Osten because he wanted to quit and his "heart" wasn't in it. Osten might not know WHY Lill picked the other player over Osten until he saw her ep 2 talks on TV about Osten having no heart and giving up/quitting.
It's probably wrong, but I like it for now
I am really leaning toward the regret being some sort of MORAL regret, but the above three possibilities all fit together nicely.
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -