>This show kicked ass in ratings last year, and CBS and
>MB had no reason to think it wouldn't do just
>as well this year. MB and CBS would not do
>something crazy to the show, like a 3 tribe think,
>or an early merge. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Actually, it didn't do as well in the ratings as CBS had projected.

Big business cares more about hitting projections than doing well. For example, when Intel had a record-breaking sales quarter a few years ago, but didn't hit the projections, and the value of the stock went DOWN. At the same time, Apple had lost millions during the quarter, but lost less than projected, and the stock went UP.

This shows how bean counters think. The ratings, especially after the merge, were lower than projected. One of the main complaints that CBS would have seen was the imminent Pagonging of the Kucha, which made the game very predictable for the last 6 or 7 episodes before the last show. After all, the members of this board managed to pick almost all (if not all) of the bootees (in order) after Jeff was voted off. We even picked the right winner.

In the first season, we actually got to watch the main alliance break up and get to the point where they were going to punish a member by voting her off, only to have her win a series of immunity wins. The second season was more predictable, with no outwardly strong alliances other than Jerry's alliance, which was crushed when Mitchell was voted off.

So, why not change the merge? We have evidence from Les Moonchild that changes would be apparent around merge time. We also have evidence that EPM had originally planned to start filming S4 in Jordan BEFORE the first episode of S3. After September 11th, he had to reschedule and relocate S4 -- they may be waiting to see how well S3 does before putting more money into it. However, the original plan may well have been to make the change to the merge without letting the contestants in either S3 or S4 from knowing about them. All the better to have tribes with deep splits into them right before the surprise!

Changing the merge is one of the best ways to keep the game "fresh" and have people watch it and talk about it at the water cooler. It's the talking around the water cooler that made the first season such an unprecedented hit. There wasn't as much talk about the second season. Again, EPM and CBS could never have known that the ratings this season would be so bad, especially considering the projections.

If there isn't a major change in the merge this season, look forward to it in S4 (if it gets off the ground).