Hi Im fairly new at this but Im throwing my 2 cents, or maybe its a quarter by the size of it, in for you to pick apart. Let me know what you think.

I posted this analysis on another board before the most recent episode Im repeating it here to show what I was thinking.

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Lets assume (and I know what that makes me) that Rupe's alliance will hold together a bit longer and take a look at what that means to each of the other players knowing that if they can sew up 2 votes come TC they can pretty much dicatate the rest of the game.

First off
Jon- His whole aim now it to avoid Rupert getting more votes but every one he approaches has no reason to trust him farther than they can throw him, well maybe not that far. The two players he is most likely to be able to manipulate would be Lil and Burton. Lil because she hasnt a clue how to play and Burton because Burt knows he needs JFP (or Lil) to be sitting opposite him at the F2. If Jon can get a step ahead of Burton get him to reveal info JFP may last a little while longer.
(breaking Ruperts alliance is a must)

Ryno - You need to get on board with Rupe or your toast. You may last the next TC by joining the outsiders but your next after that.
(Joining Ruperts alliance is a must)

Tijuana - If she is to show any player skills it will be to convince Burton that she has no tie to morgan and will aid him in breaking ruperts alliance down the road just not now. This buys her some much needed food and time. She since she is not an immediate threat can work with the other Girls to ensure that Rupert stays in check. It would be best if Sandra brings her over but she needs to distance herself from Jon and Ryno.
(joining ruperts alliance is a good choice as long as Burton is staying in the game otherwise she is in a world of hurt. Burton is her ticket to breaking Rupes alliance down the line.)

Darrah - Follow T's lead dont poke your head up.
(same as T)

Burton - Now we come to the man with all the power right now. The smart thing to do right now would be to keep JFP on an Island you can say anything you want to the man right now and get away with it not to mention he can be your gopher. (You know small rat like rodent)
If he stays close to Rupe he may be able to get the girls to turn on rupe at a critical juncture. He may have an ace in the hole in Lil and be able to dump her if immunity doesnt come up. Being an outcast most anyone on the island left would like to have him be their final 2.
(Let Jon make the waves get the female (morgan if not drake) support while staying loyal to rupert and above all else win immunity)

Lil - If you ever learned to play this game you need 2 things. JFP to be you F2 and a friggin miracle.
(not a chance unless she wins IC and or just comes along for the ride playing on the outcast factor wont be her decision or actions that get her there)

So where does that leave us.
3 Hungry Morgans willing to help Rupert.
Burton and Lil biding their time.
Rupert gets his 2 votes.

Now lets look at the other three and lets figure out if they are smart or stupid by lining up thier best plays.

Rupert. - Get the votes without Burton. The minute he doesnt have the sword get his butt off. JFP would be the guy Id like to go up against at the end but you have to keep him off balance. Taking Lil into the F2 can also be an option.

Sandra - Stay the course and bring the women over really get Lil fixed in the group. Use her anti morgan feelings to ditch the morgan women once the male threats have been neutralized. Stay amicable to Burton unless you know he is gone it might be Rupert that has to leave if he wins IC but keep the chow comming for as long as you can.

Christa - Make friends with the morgan women and Lil you will need to win a crucial late immunity to break sandras hold on the alliance and you will need to ensure Rupert stays put. Your head will role right after Ruperts.

So really the only thing stopping Ruperts alliance is the alliance itself. From the previews we get the Idea that Christa is thinking Rupert has to go. (Probably more hype than reality) But if they break it up or fail to bring over 2 morgans they will be the ones out in the cold.

Its crunch time for some and the next boot can really tell you alot about whos playing smart. It will tell alot about which side of the fence the votes land on.

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Lets look at each of the players in Recap.

Jon - actually laid low I've had my hunches that this may be Jon's strategy all along make everyone think your an ass so they will take you to F2 for the sure win but fly low once Jury selection starts.

Burton - It was most likely in your hands I think you shot yourself in the foot. You most likely had Jon Lil Ryno and possibly D or T locked up to break Ruperts alliance and you wiffed. For all your talk you to Jon and Lil you didnt come through in the clutch.

Ryno - Sorry man you made the wrong move by going to Burton but who could have guessed.

Rupert - I thought you were trying to throw the reward but at last minute decided to win it just to give it away. That IC challenge was something really wierd. No one wanted to touch you Id be worried now.

Sandra - You go. Im sure you were instrumental in getting the Morgan girls on board.

Christa - A bit much harping on the laziness aspect of the Morgans. You still need them to go a bit further. Your name keeps popping up in votes.
If Rupe wins IC you are the member of your Triumbirate they will turn on.

Tijuana - Looks like you just missed an opportunity to go a bit further in the game. A little more adapting to the new dynamics could smooth things over.

Darrah - Following the strong lead. Now may be the time to make the jump to the outcast if Burton wins IC. Making the break from T now would be good but be sure to be on the right side.

Lil - Your in deep trouble now. As Mr. Miagi(sp) from the Karate Kid II said about walking down the road. "Choose one side or the other walk down middle get squished like grape." Previews tend to be misleading but may not in your case.

So there you have it.
Burton Ryno and even Lil all making mistakes this week. Opportunities dont present themselves too frequently. Still not too late but is going to become increasingly difficult.

Sandra and the Morgan women were the clear winners this week.