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sisyphus 321 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 11-07-03, 12:52 PM (EST) "Tribe dynamics and...." After watching last nights show I realized something....If you look at how both tribes dealt with the returnee you will realize that regardless of the merge the drake alliance will remain strong...that is christa, rupert sandra and burton...The Drakes, although not liking or looking forward to the return of an outcast and more so the return of burton, who is a strong player, dealt pretty well with the situation, rupert cleared the air by explaining why he "voted" the way he did even thoogh he was not there....the others pretty much did not make a big issue of his return, they just said what they had to say...he was offered food and made to feel generally welcome..... On the morgan side, the resentment was very tangible and was not helped by the fact that lillian was still p.oed at andrew...she came back and it was as if the tribe had been in a time warp...nothing had changed....the only one that was even remotely friendly was tijuana.... The merge...did anyone notice after the immunity challenge the morgans sitting together still being morgan, still pathetic and then andrew goes over to confront lil about sticking with the morgans....then he has the gall to ask her to get back to him ...now I that her reply was most telling..... Lill will vote with burton and burton will for now go with the Drake alliance...which spells doom for the remaining morgans unless of course they can win an immunity....or betray each other and curry favour with the other side...I see tijuana and darrah possible doing this.... wha do ou guys think....   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Tribe dynamics and.... Splotchie 11-07-03 1  RE: Tribe dynamics and.... Fast Eddie 11-07-03 2    RE: Tribe dynamics and.... sisyphus 11-07-03 3        RE: Tribe dynamics and.... Fast Eddie 11-07-03 5            RE: Tribe dynamics and.... I_AM_HE 11-08-03 10  RE: Tribe dynamics and.... beckyjac 11-07-03 4    RE: Tribe dynamics and.... Blow by Blow 11-07-03 6        RE: Tribe dynamics and.... Nash 11-07-03 7            RE: Tribe dynamics and.... Chrissy gal 11-08-03 8                RE: Tribe dynamics and.... Nash 11-08-03 11  RE: Tribe dynamics and.... caychris 11-08-03 9    RE: Tribe dynamics and.... sisyphus 11-08-03 12    RE: Tribe dynamics and.... bubbastan 11-10-03 13        RE: Tribe dynamics and.... caychris 11-10-03 14

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Splotchie 1 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 11-07-03, 02:41 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Tribe dynamics and...." I agree that last night it was clear that Drake was as usual the stronger and smarter tribe in their handling of the returning member. I'm also quite glad to see Andrew go. I have never understood the loyalty he had within his tribe or within the forum communities. He always struck me as ineffective and strangely arrogant given how ineffective he was. His treatment of Lil upon her return is testament not only to his arrogance, but his ineffectiveness. Why would he expect her to vote with the old tribe when she had been treated so badly, even to the point of telling her of his resentment of her immunity at that point. Voting her out in the first thing is one thing, telling her you would do it again if you could is quite another. What gall he showed in confronting her to ask if she was going to stick with them once they merged. I was very proud of how she dealt with that. She could have dropped her eyes and mumbled some meaningless approval of his plan, but she looked him in the eye and gave him back his own comment. Nice! I am more in awe of Rupert than ever (although his manipulation of Savage during his looting trip was amazing). Rupert handled Burton absolutely perfectly. Not that I don't think he was completely sincere in everything he said, but some might have just let it go since he wasn't involved in the vote against Burton. Instead, he explained his agreement with the vote in a way that left Burton in the chastised position. Rupert not only explained his own feelings, but left little doubt of why the voting tribemembers voted as they did. Burton knowing that what Rupert said was true is now completely humbled and ready to fight for Drake instead of with them. I think any thoughts of the "revenge of the outcasts" is completely gone from his mind. Still, he is a strong member and may ultimately be Rupert's downfall now that physical immunity is no longer a sure thing for Rup.   Top

Fast Eddie 625 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 11-07-03, 03:19 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Tribe dynamics and...." LAST EDITED ON 11-07-03 AT 03:24 PM (EST) The situations were practically opposites. Lil got booted because even a beginner cub scout would have been more useful. The Morgans knew that it was the right thing to do and had no regrets. Her return was a liability. Burton was ousted out of respect and fear of his strength and abilities. The Drakes realized they had made a mistake in taking Burton out too early and it had cost them dearly. His return was an asset for them. Given human nature, it's hard to imagine how all the people involved could have reacted differently. Still, even though bringing people back was absurd and has destroyed what little integrity the game had left, you have to carry on, just like when the ref or ump makes a bad call. I don't know what Savage could have said when Lil was so fixated on something so minor, but since it was clear that everyone would continue to vote along ex-tribal lines, he needed to try harder. Perhaps he should have pursued a different line: go to Rupert and use his existing good relationship to try to get in with the Drakes. Hammer home the point that the tribes no longer exist and it's now an individual game so ex-tribal loyalties make no sense. I wouldn't hire this lawyer to plead my case in court.   Top

sisyphus 321 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 11-07-03, 03:33 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Tribe dynamics and...." >The situations were practically opposites. >Lil got booted because even >a beginner cub scout would >have been more useful. I don't really agree, even though she was inept at fishing she did do alot of fetching and carrying of wood, starting fire and cooking, and getting water, jobs she landed right back doing. i was painfully obvious that the morgan tribe members were lazy and had no discernable abilities at sustaining themselves. Andrew as a leader was a total failure in this regard, since apart from his and ryan's attempt to find a food source there were no major attempts at fishing or doing much else.... I do agree with you however that lil was too fixated on that small slight seeing that this is the game of survivor....there is not much else that andrew could have said to change her mind... on another note...rupert clearly eavesdropped on that conversation...and now has a much clearer undersatanding of lil's position with her former team mates and I am sure he will use that to his alliances benefit...   Top

Fast Eddie 625 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 11-07-03, 04:32 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Tribe dynamics and...." >I don't really agree, even though >she was inept at fishing >she did do alot of >fetching and carrying of wood, >starting fire and cooking, While she fetched wood, I seem to recall a scene where she failed miserably at actually starting a fire. The point is, Morgan got rid of her because they felt she was the weakest; Drake dumped Burton because they felt he was the strongest.   Top

I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-08-03, 03:34 AM (EST) 10. "RE: Tribe dynamics and...." the weakest after 3 straight TCs, you forget. and the one not in the majority alliance. they didn't WANT to vote lillian out, they had to, both andrew and tijuana really fretted over it.   Top

beckyjac 27 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 11-07-03, 04:10 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Tribe dynamics and...." Mark my words, Burton will turn on Lil and vote her out - she is much more a Morgan than a Outcast - Drake is in a solid alliance and I think Burton completely understands why he was booted and is not holding a grudge - Yea!!!! for Rupert _ I will be sooooo sad if he gets booted, I would be sooooo glad if Jon was gone!!   Top

Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 11-07-03, 05:12 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Tribe dynamics and...." Your wishes will be granted within three episodes. Jon and Rupert will both be gone. However, Burton will not turn on Lill. Thus it is written, thus it shall be, or until I'm proven wrong. -P   Top

Nash 437 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 11-07-03, 09:43 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Tribe dynamics and...." I tend to agree. I think the times are turning for Rupert and he may actually be ousted before Jon. Jon is not a threat. he is hated. A jury would prefer ANYONE to Jon. A jury however would pick Rupert and for that matter Burton from a final 2. This is how I'd like to see it. Final 4 Sandra, Rupert, Jon and Christa. Rupert wins immunity, Christa's voted out. Next Challenge Rupert wins immunity picks Jon for Final 2, Rupert wins. This is how it will go... Final 4 Sandra, Darrah, Lil and either Burton and/or Rupert. Male wins immunity, Darrah goes, Sandra wins immunity picks Lil on notion that jury will not allow Lil to win. Sandra wins.   Top

Chrissy gal 1413 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 11-08-03, 02:15 AM (EST) 8. "RE: Tribe dynamics and...." Nash, I'm really hoping that you are posting this as Speculation on your part and not based on Spoiling information. Chrissy gal "Never underestimate the potential psychosis of a reality show contestant." managerr   Top

Nash 437 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 11-08-03, 08:09 AM (EST) 11. "RE: Tribe dynamics and...." deiniely not spoiling because I have absolutely no idea how it is going to go.   Top

caychris 16 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 11-08-03, 03:08 AM (EST) 9. "RE: Tribe dynamics and...." I think what is being overlooked here is the possibility for Sandra to easily create a female stealth alliance within the group. Lets look at this fairly straight forward. Drake could vote as a block and oust Morgan in order however when they are down to 6 (5 after Lil, a non Drake,is booted) what to do then. Burton Jon and Lil know that prior to this happening they need friends in Morgan or they must break Rupes alliance or else it will be Sandra Rupert Christa plain and simple and praying for immunity down the line. So the Tribe voting block is gone as of next episode or the one following for sure. Sandra to date has played very smart she has strong allies and can with a bit of work can bring together a female alliance without dumping her current one. The morgan girls should already be aware of the advantage of having Rupert as a friend and it would be the perfect time for Sandra to cross the line and bring the 2 Morgan women over to Rupe. She can befriend Lil and cite that if it becomes neccissary to vote a woman off that her earlier cooperation would allow her to pick which of the 2 Morgan women go. The dynamic has the advantage of making immunity fairly irrelevent for quite a while as the women pick to keep the most convienient man all the while maintaining superior numbers. The real kicker here is that Jon Ryno Burton and even the 2 morgan girls should not have much reason to be vindictive on the jury toward the woman at the end. Perfect opportunity for Sandra. Thats my thinking.   Top

sisyphus 321 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 11-08-03, 05:05 PM (EST) 12. "RE: Tribe dynamics and...." okay, you all have valid points. I will give my speculation and this has no spoiler value whatsoever...just how i would like things to go Right now even though there is a merged tribe it is still basically drake and morgan, so with the core and strongest alliance being rupert, christa, sandra, burton and "lil" so that is 5 out of 9 a majority.....Jon know that he is on the chopping block unless he win immunity so he will try to get the remaining morgan into some kind of alliance his only chance...if this is the case, jon, not seen as a treat will make ryan a firmer target for expulsionsince he did do well in last challenge plus he is from morgan and the plan I think is get rid of the morgans..for now anyway... After ryan goes that leaves tijuana, darrah and Jon shaking their boots...well they don't have any ..but shaking nonetheless...the girls will scramble to make alliances with the girls...it is critical that one of the girls win immunity, which i think darrah will...at this time then i thik one of the guys..burton,Jon,rupert will go....my choice will be burton..... with burton gone lil is in the wind...but not seen as a threat..another person..probably christa wins inmmunity and lil or tijuana is gone........ will be back later   Top

bubbastan 625 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 11-10-03, 06:59 PM (EST) 13. "RE: Tribe dynamics and...." Caychris, I think that what you've stated here has a lot of merit. Here's how I see the core alliances as of last week's show: Rupert, Christa, Sandra + Burton(with Burton having the weakest connection to the rest of the original Drakes) Ryan O, Darrah, Tijuana - Strong Morgan ties but in minority number-wise Wild Cards: Lillian - last week's voting alliance was temporary, and would not consider her even close to being a member of the Drake alliance. She's really a free-agent at this point, which she'll recognize if she's smart. Jon - Not trusted by Drakes and not liked by Morgans; Jonny will have to do some scrambling and will at best end up in alliance of convenience. The biggest threats to go on immunity ho' run are obviously Burton and Rupert, which would seem to be a good thing for the Drakes; however, there is still that problem of wild-cards Lillian and Jon, who if the wind blows them in the Morgan direction, could upset the Drake applecart. Who's smart enough to see a clear way around this dilema? Sandra, in my opinion, has the smarts to realize that aside from any old tribal alliances, the women are the true clear majority here. I'm looking for Sandra to chat up the Drake women, including Lillian, to form the oft speculated but never really produced alliance of women. I could see the following playing out: Ryan O goes this week if he fails to win IC. Lillian votes with the Drake block to keep up appearances and if so, it won't matter what Jon, Darrah, Ti and Ryan do, Ryan is toast. Following week look for a strong Drake Man to go. Probably Rupert, but Burton is not out of the realm of possibility. At this point, the women are in the driver's seat, with the women picking off the remaining males and finally eachother depending upon who wins immunity. That's the way I see things playing out right now, but who knows? It's been an interesting year so far, so there may be some more twists down the road.   Top

caychris 16 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 11-10-03, 10:52 PM (EST) 14. "RE: Tribe dynamics and...." In thinking about it Rupert is the only one I think would fear the women getting together. I think you may see alot of shifting going on and Sandra pitch an alliance to D&T telling them nothing has to be decided right now as Ryno and Jon are the most likely on the block but she can pitch the merits of keeping Rupert or Burton. In one of the clips we see 4 women together and again Lil on her own. If I were Burton Id stick with Rupe and get him to vote Lil off. He can keep his word by not voting for her if he can manuver the rest of the vote around. I think Jon will shoot himself in the foot again by calling for Rupes head too early. Ryno is almost certainly toast unless Ryno can expose Jon to Rupert. The tribal lines dont make sense to anyone but Rupert and possibly the 2 drake girls. However Rupert if he is smart will try to bring Lil into the fold in full. There is no animosity there and Lil is looking for a friend. To this point she can either accept Burtons word or not. She doesnt know he didnt vote for her to go back in. She has not been able to demonstrate to this point that she grasps the dynamics of her situation. The classic bit with Rupe behind Savages back shows Rupe knows how to manipulate Lil. There are alot of "ifs" about how things will play out but the surest way for T&D to stay in the game is to do nothing at this point and watch for how the Lil wind is blowing. T&D have to know Ryno is a lost cause. The real question in all of this is does Burton trust Jon. One more thing either of the Drake women jumping off the Rupert train at this point have to know they are commiting suicide in the comming week or so. I will be very suprised if we see a Morgan/Drake split on votes again.   Top

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