I feel that it is about a forgone conclusion by now that Debb will get sent packing in episode 1. The fact that 14 of the 16 contestants are seen taking part in the "Water Torture" challenge that was reported to be on day 7 with only Debb and Kel missing leads us to believe that both Debb and Kel are gone by episode 3, it does make sense. Likely we sleuths here at the message boards were given these first two by Burnett as an attempt to lure us in. Anyway, the fact that Kel is seen in the "Mad Cow" challenge which is believed to be in episode 2 does point to Debb being gone by then. The thing that we really need to look at now is whether or not Kel is second to go. There is only limited info to go on and most of it does point at Kel being booted in EP2 but some do lead to questions regarding this assumption. First we need to be sure that someone will be kicked off in episode 1. TV Guide reported that episode one will have a combination reward/immunity challenge which consists of a multi-terrain race, so that lends credibility to someone (Debb) getting the boot in EP 1 (my guess is that "multi-terrain" means land & water - like jumping off of a cliff?). The below pick also proves this.

It is a copy of a fax of the Day 15 Call Sheet. Assuming that this is not a fake (and assuming something like that with Burnett may be a mistake) we can be sure that SOMEONE WILL get booted in episode 1. My reasoning is that towards the bottom of the Call Sheet you can see that 12 PA's are needed to run through the challenge called "The Maze". The time of this is 1300-1400 (1 to 2 o'clock for those non-military types). You can also see at the middle of the Call Sheet that the tribes will depart their respective camps at 1630 (4:30 PM). That points to the challenge being at 5-ish with someone getting kicked off that evening at council (Day 15 means that we are day 3 of episode 5). Now this is how I concluded that someone WILL get booted in episode 1...

If there are 12 PA's (Photo Assistants?) needed for the run through then that means that 4 people are gone from the original 16. If this is episode 5 then one must have been booted in the four previous weeks. The only way that this does not work out is if the teams are uneven and someone sits out - which would be unlikely plus why would they need all 14 PA's for the run through?. So... It can be assumed that someone will get gone in episode 1.

Next we have this photo of Kel with a knife. A knife is not something that would be just given to the tribes. Likely it is from a challenge. That begs the question that if Kel does get the boot in episode 2 then does this come from the combo challenge in episode 1 or from the reward challenge in episode 2... who knows? There is one challenge titled "Treasure Hunt" that would likely give these types of treasures.

Here we have the tribe walking on a cliff. You can see Kel as the forth from left. My belief is that this picture is from either episode 1's "Multi-Terrain Race" or from a rumored challenge titled "Blind Leading the Blind" (you can make out Tina to the right and it looks like she may (or may not) have a blindfold on). One MAJOR point of interest here is Kel's ear. You can make out that it is bright red as though it is sunburned. His shoulder also looks as though it may have started to peal, which leads me to this major piece of evidence...

You can see here that Kel was a butthead and forgot the spf50. His whole upper body is pealing (could Kel be the one rumored to get "sick" in the first episode? Take it from someone who has had sun poisoning - it sucks!!!). His left shoulder seems to be worse off as compared to the rest of his pealing self, just like in the walking on the cliff pic.

Now you can see in this group photo, which must have been on either day 1 or 2, that Kel is not pealing or even sunburned - though his right arm does seem to be getting toasty. Now here is the one thing that makes me currently worried with the Kel second scenerio...

You can easily see Kel watching as Kimmi beats his ass by chowing down on some cow guts. The question is does he look sunburned? Assuming that the "Cow eating" challenge is in episode 2 then it comes down to this...
If he is sunburned in the above pic then he is fair game in regards to our pic for getting ousted but if not then he must be around a bit longer enabling him to get sunburned at a later date. Also think about this, if the "cow eating" challenge IS on day 6 (the 2nd Tribal Council Day) then he would have to be pealing as bad as he is in the "Kel Pealing" picture above for it to be possible for him to be the one voted off. I look at the "cow eating" pic and I think I make out that his nose is red but again red does not equate to pealing. The real issue is his shoulder. In the "Kel Pealing" pic his shoulder is bad. In the "Cow Eating" pic his shoulder is seen but the lighting is too bright making it so I can't see the shoulder well enough. Could anyone check and see if they have a better picture of Kel at the "Cow Eating" challenge and post it here. Also using his sunburn as a spoiler source we should be able to watch episode 1 and figure out a time table for when he should be pealing (does he get burned in episode 1 or not).

So, it comes down to this...

If Kel gets sunburned in episode 1 then he is still the likely candidate for getting the boot BUT...

If he does NOT get sunburned in episode 1 then guess what boys and girls, it takes longer than three days to get burned and to start pealing as bad as he does so...

that would mean he sticks it out a bit longer.

Again if anyone could check their pics and see if they have a better one or we will just have to wait and watch episode 1. I have to say thanx to Kel for getting sunburned giving us this spoiler clue and I also want to say...

Hi Mr. Burnett, i'm a big fan!!!

Conspiracy Jim