Now, I find it fun to come here once in a while, but I am not a religious "user" mainly because my job keeps me too busy to really dig deep into all the (quality) material that gets posted.

None the less, I thought it might be interesting to post my own thoughts on how this game is going. I like to look at the bigger picture. Not what is necessarily going on in the show, but more from a "what keeps MB in a job with a winning baby in his pocket" point of view. I think that can be a telling as the show events themselves:

Assumptions:
1a. MB is a bit of a control freak and narcicist....he probably resists the thought that he is not in control of all aspects of the game (essentially placing himself in a "God"-like role)

1b. While Survivor is a reality show, untethered reality TV is not conducive to true entertainment short of head-to-head brute conflict (sports). This is largely because people are not nearly as interesting (as necessary for TV) in real life ("coping" is a large portion of true survivor-like life, and "coping" isn't terribly interesting to watch).

1c. Leading from 1a. MB wants a successful TV show that remains the gold-standard of reality TV, drawing in men and women to watch it. I think most people will agree with such statements as; "If you want something done right, you have to do it yourself", "only you can ensure your own success", "lucky people make their own luck" etc etc.

1d. Leading from 1b and 1c. The survivor contestants can't be relied upon to make the show a success. MB has to remove the impact of their individual behaviours as far out of the equation of the show as possible. However, MB also needs to make the show seem as least "scripted" as possible.

1e. Leading from 1d, restating 1a. Thus, MB needs to control every other variable possible to keep individual behaviour as small of a ripple as possible. He chooses who plays the game, he chooses which tribe they are on, he chooses what interaction they have with the environment (food, shelter, location), he chooses what/when challenges are and the rewards they bring.

I am sure you will not conflict with that much. But how does he implement that power. Well, I think some examples are in order.

A. I don't know which episode it was, but when they shuffled tribes and only Amber was reassigned....that wreaked of "set-up". Sure, with a sufficiently small sample size, such a fluky outcome is possible, but when it only affected a romancing couple it seems to be awefully "goal-specific". MB has got to realize that a developing romance on a competitive game show like this is equivalent of ratings suicide after a few episodes of scandal. Further, it is almost an implied attempt to break one of the two commandments "thou shalt not conspire to share the money". Knowing he couldn't control their behaviours without exposing the show as being controlled (not necessarily "rigged") he had to spacially break them up. The shuffle trick could have been accomplished by almost any amateur magician with a tophat and some coloured tissues.

B. Until they get their "tree-mail" or whatever, contestants don't know what challenge is comming next. That gives MB full opportunity to go to his bag of tricks and decide which challenge to pull out next. In order to shake up a stagnating alliance structure, he might pull out a challenge the favours a player of specific mental/physical type thus ensuring they continue despite what the alliance would dictate. He has all these people profiled to-the-hilt and he knows which challenges favour all the different types (through previous series experience and plain old reasoning). So this episode, a challenge appears that, from a mechanical/physiological point of view, would fully favour a person of slight build.....SA just so happens to be the best example of that on the show (good young heart and blood vessels, low progression of atherosclerosis, light, non-bulky arm, non-bulky shoulders to allow easy full abduction of the arm......I knew Shii was going to win this challenge hands down without going to the spoilers). Actually Rupert should be given kudos for lasting so long as I figured his arm should drop soon after Tom's, the extra muscle on a big arm seldom fully compensates, endurance wise, for the extra weight it carries.

2. So, besides filming everyone and then creating the story after the show has been taped (by the way, how do they do it so that none of the cameramen are ever seen???), MB is also trying to manipulate the game while it is unfolding. Afterall, he can only create an interesting story if interesting events actually occured so that he can use them.

From a logic point of view, no one will care to watch a re-union where the choices are either Amber or Rob, since they are couple, and thus represent no real choice. MB has declared with the tribe-shuffle that he doesn't think the R-A romance (AKA super-alliance) is a good ratings tool anymore. Yet, after the game was actually finished, the romance remained in the show and didn't hit the cutting room floor. If we assume that MB is not a complete dolt, and we assume that he refuses to not "get his own way" and fully intends to have a hit show, I think that Rob and Amber can't get to the final two without "splitting up" on the show. Thus, Rob or Amber get voted off, or they break up. Now a break-up would be good ratings material, so the general public would probably soon be getting hints about it to intrigue us to all watch. Since that hasn't occured yet, I would believe Rob or Amber to get chopped.

But that is just my thoughts.....

If you have your own thought experiments that might prove spoiler-worthy, please post.

Thanks

Cyanide