For the first post-merge boot, people are going to be playing their cards very closely. That's why we've had things go along tribal lines (S1, S2) and "obvious agreed-upon" targets (Clarence, Rob). The dominant alliance - or any alliance that thinks it could end up the dominant alliance - is going to want to target someone with as little manipulation as possible, to avoid showing their strategy too early. So, who would be the easiest to target?

Individual IC threats - Alex, Dave, and Matthew are the more dominant men, Deena the biggest threat among the women.

Gender - The men could go after any woman to keep the numerical advantage, so Deena, Jenna, Heidi, and Christy end up on the list here.

Now, looking at each of them one by one, what risk is there to targeting each?

Alex: Alex did not vote with the rest of NewJ, so there's no alliances there at risk. Christy has no loyalties to him, since they've never been in a tribe together. Dave, Roger, and Butch were expecting Alex to be part of their all-male final 6. However, the men have a 5-4 numerical advantage, and once they hear of Alex's targeting of Matthew at the last TC, they won't trust him to vote with them all the way through. They would also recognize the logic of getting rid of an IC threat. He is at HIGH risk of being targeted.

Christy: Loosest ties to the rest of the women, so could be possible to convince the women to vote against her. Alex, Matthew, and Rob have never been in a tribe with her, so they have no loyalty to her. Dave would have targeted her last ep if Tambaqui went to TC. However, Roger and Butch would want her to stay. There are a lot of riskier individual IC threats, but she did show a lot of determination during the last RC. Risk of being targeted: MEDIUM to HIGH.

Dave: Rob has expressed displeasure at Dave's shipping him off to NewJ, so he may be willing to cast his vote now for Dave. Jenna and Deena would be willing to target a male IC threat. However, it's doubtful that Roger and Butch would be easy to convince, since he has always been a part of their tribe and has voted with them every time after TC1. Christy may also be difficult to convince, since that would put her at a numerical advantage both gender-wise and switched-tribe wise. Heidi has a loose alliance with Dave and could also be difficult. Risk of being targeted: MEDIUM.

Matthew: Alex already has targeted him. Christy and Heidi have no loyalty to him, so they could be convinced. However, the only reason that Dave, Roger, or Butch would target Matthew before Alex is if Alex is immune - Matthew has not betrayed them. New J has already resisted Alex's targeting of Matthew once. Risk: MEDIUM to LOW.

Deena: Neither Heidi nor Jenna would target Deena. Rob would be trying to hide his alliance with her and would try to present an obvious target as protection. Since one is available (Alex), I put her at LOW risk of being targeted.

Jenna: See above. Since Rob knows Deena would not vote for Jenna, he won't target her either. LOW risk.

Heidi: Would not be targeted by Jenna or Deena. Rob would not target out of loyalty to alliance to Deena. Dave, Butch, and Roger would try and target a woman from New J before turning on a member of their switched tribe, since they have no loyalties to Deena or Jenna.

Why didn't I put Roger on the list? Because at this point being disliked is not a negative. For contestants looking at the end game, he could be worth keeping around, since it could be quite advantageous to go against him in the final 2. There are stronger men who are greater IC risks that would be much bigger targets at this point.

So, I think Alex and Christy are at the greatest risk. But since our merged tribe will only have a day or two at most to strategize on who to get rid of, and people will want to show as little about their alliances as possible, the easiest target would be Alex. He's an immunity threat, and his only remaining alliance - to the three always-Tambaqui men - can easily be severed by telling them about his targeting of Matthew.

A Bebodacious American