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ivoryElephant 2257 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model" 04-03-02, 11:09 PM (EST) "analyzing the average place of teams. Don't read before you have seen the show" Since one team will be left out of this analysis don't read it unless you know the outcome of tonights show. After five episodes Rob and Brennan had an average place of 3.4 and only placed 1st one time. The Guidos had an avg of 2.2 after five shows. and Frank/Marg. avged 3.6. Therefore you don't need the best avg after 5 shows to win but you need it to be in the top three. Tara/Wil avg=2.4 Mary/Peach avg= 4.4 Chris/Alex avg=4.6 Danny/Oswald avg=4.6 Gary/dave= 4.8 Blake/Paige= 5.2 It looks like Tara/Will are gonna run away with it but I wouldn't count Mary/Peach out. They made a big mistake in the previous episode when they missed the FF and still got 5th place, and one of them was sick. They have remained pretty consistant. Danny/Oswald have used up there FF and are now on the bubble. they have only finished 1st one time w/out the FF. They are on the verge of elimination Chris and Alex are inconsistant jumping from 6-2-7-7-1. They need the FF to stay in it. Blake and Paige, They are Very consistant and have stayed in the mid to front of the pack except for one episode. There consistancy will pay off. After this analysis I think the final 3 will be Tara/Wil Mary/Peach Blake/Paige Gary/Dave are a bit more consistantand have faired better in later rounds, but there youth may be there downfall. "I know I don't know you, and you're probably not what you seem, but I sure would like to find out so why don't you climb down of that TV screen" Gina Crews, the Sole Survivor!   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    Disagree AyaK 04-04-02 1    RE: Disagree chrisgmanly 04-04-02 2        I stand corrected AyaK 04-05-02 6  RE: analyzing the average place of ... Loree 04-04-02 3  Not so fast Meemo 04-04-02 4    RE: Not so fast trigirl 04-05-02 5        RE: Not so fast ShowMeTheWinner 04-06-02 7            The finale trigirl 04-06-02 8  RE: analyzing the average place of ... Canadian_eh 04-08-02 9    RE: analyzing the average place of ... Faith 04-08-02 10

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AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-04-02, 00:14 AM (EST) 1. "Disagree" LAST EDITED ON 04-05-02 AT 06:47 PM (EST) I don't agree that we can draw conclusions from TAR1, at least with regard to stage finishes. One of the interesting points about TAR2 is that the producers have ensured that the teams stayed in echelons most of the time, for example by limiting the number of passengers who could make a flight. Thus, they have kept the teams segregated by time much more frequently than they did in TAR1. This episode was the first one in which the rear teams were able to catch up due to a travel restriction; in TAR1 it happened weekly! Plus, the teams have become savvier about the FF option. Remeber, in TAR1, Rob and Brennan used the FF in Episode 1. By contrast, only one of the surviving teams (Oswald/Danny) has used the FF so far. I would say that SOMEONE is going to grab the FF in E11 and perhaps win as a result. But I don't think TAR1 info is worthless, either. In fact, I see one REALLY relevant comparison: the last 4 teams in TAR1 were the 4 most competitive teams (LA Lawyers, Ike & Tina, Guidos, Festers). The teams in 5th, 6th and 7th had one member who was very competitive (Emily, Karyn, Amie) and one who wasn't (Nancy, Lenny, Paul). Right now, we have three really competitive teams: Chex, Tail and Blaige. It's no surprise that these teams are fighting all the time. We have two more teams that seem competitive, although not nearly as "hyper" as the other three: Woodies and Oswald/Danny. Finally, we have a team left and a team just eliminated on which one member is really competitive (Mary, Russell) and the other isn't as competitive (Peach, Cyndi). Thus, barring catastrophe, it would seem that the three most competitive teams would be the final three. One more thought: The best analogy between TAR1 and TAR2 comes with the separated couple. Wil and Frank act as though they were twins. No wonder Margarita and Tara separated from them!   Top

chrisgmanly 8 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 04-04-02, 01:33 AM (EST) 2. "RE: Disagree" I agree with everything you said except one thing...in TAR1 it was Amie who was SUPER competitive and Paul who wanted to give up all the time...   Top

AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-05-02, 06:47 PM (EST) 6. "I stand corrected" Sometimes I type faster than I think. You are correct, of course. I'm correcting my original post. Thanks.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-04-02, 12:30 PM (EST) 3. "RE: analyzing the average place of teams. Don't read before you have seen the show" I believe Wil & Tara and Blake & Paige will probably make the final 3. But I don't see Mary & Peach making it. I think Chris & Alex will be the other pair. Mary & Peach seem to have too many "I'm gonna be sick" moments". I think the travel will eventually wear them down like Momily was last time.   Top

Meemo 3519 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 04-04-02, 03:16 PM (EST) 4. "Not so fast" I don't think the reasoning applies here based on last episode alone. Oswald/Danny went first to worst (other than Cyndi/Russ) while Chex went worst to first. Things can drastically change from week to week in TAR2 and I think that it will be fairly unpredicatble up to the end. "I'm no theologian, but I do know that God is a more powerful force than both mom & dad combined....and you owe Him big." - Lisa Simpson   Top

trigirl 2851 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 04-05-02, 09:17 AM (EST) 5. "RE: Not so fast" to week in TAR2 and >I think that it will >be fairly unpredicatble up to >the end. I'm with you Meemo. The twins said in one of their interviews that the ending is going to blow everyone away. It is an unpredictable race and even though some contestants are more competitive there is a large element of luck as well.   Top

ShowMeTheWinner 962 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 04-06-02, 02:51 AM (EST) 7. "RE: Not so fast" Yeah! I agree with you that the ending is gonna be really great. Not only did the twins say it but the mother-daughter team said the same thing. They even went to the extent to say that the producers should stop the series because no other series would beat the ending. Perhaps one of the unlikely teams will win-- Peaches & Scream, Cha Cha Cha? PS: Thanks a bunch to Ice Cat for the signature pic   Top

trigirl 2851 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 04-06-02, 10:42 AM (EST) 8. "The finale" I've got it. As many have surmised, the final three will be Blaige, Wilma and Chex. It is a dash for the final 100 metres as Blaige takes the lead. Wil screams "Nooooo" and we witness the scene in slow motion (listen, you can hear that Bionic sound in the background). Wil tackles Blake and Chex runs by them. Tara sees her luver Alex dash by and says "What about our alliance?" Alex picks her up, Chris sees a spare chic, picks up Paige and the four of them race to the finish line (Chariots of Fire blazing in the background). Blake and Wil are left bleeding and crying still blaming each other. Six weeks later, after spending a bunch of their dough Paige and Tara dump the lugheads who are left with about 10 grand. They all live happily ever after...well, with a little help from their respective therapists.   Top

Canadian_eh 32 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 04-08-02, 03:49 PM (EST) 9. "RE: analyzing the average place of teams" LAST EDITED ON 04-08-02 AT 04:15 PM (EST) One thing I noticed... The averages in TAR2 are much closer together. Not counting Guido in TAR1 and Wilma in TAR2. There were obvious weaker teams based solely on the averages in TAR1 (Momily and Karen and Leeeennnnnyyyy!). In TAR2 the averages give you the impression that any team could win. This tells me: 1. That the teams are more equal 2. The producers are doing a better job at bunching (I hadn't really noticed the bunching as much unti I looked at averages... using smaller scale bunching such as charters spliting the teams up into tiers.) 3. There have been more large position changes (first to last and last to first or second to second last... you get the point) in TAR2 which makes the show much more interesting. ***Edited to add*** One thing the averages fail to point out is if teams are tied or essentially tied. It gives the team in second a worse average than the first.   Top

Faith 40 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 04-08-02, 03:55 PM (EST) 10. "RE: analyzing the average place of teams" Yes, I agree that it is not secure enough to judge the final three just be averages. It was an excellent strategy, though! The best we've seen so far.. ;)   Top

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