LAST EDITED ON 08-18-05 AT 03:15 PM (EST)

Greetings everyone! I hope that everyone is having a wonderful summer!

Since the Editing thread usually has pre-show discussion, I am posting now and while I have not had a chance to look at how busy everyone appears to be, I am sure everyone has already dissected the whole show!

I love dime store psychology and noting patterns over the seasons on why people fail in this game as well as why they may win. Obviously, winning crucial immunity challenges, twists in the game and so forth have a big part in how one ends up winning but there are notable characteristics in the winners that lend to their winning the game which we may want to look at to “guesstimate” who has a good chance. (As always, I leave All Stars out of this since it had an entirely different dynamic)

The Clinical Player

Players such as Richard, Brian and Vee, if we can remember essentially did not allow emotion to run their game. Vee’s famous “No more drama” summed it up quite nicely. These three are prime examples of a player having a plan and sticking to it. Each had a different method based on the type of person they were but their game play was clinical. They removed themselves emotionally from the game despite the emotion around them. This allowed others to make mistakes while they observed and we know observation is essential to this game. With every pitfall that came, they maneuvered the game their way and watched the others fall.

The Head of Household

No, this is not Big Brother. I use this term because these players took on a role that allowed others to gravitate towards for instruction, counsel or comfort. Players such as Tina, Ethan and Tom in their own fashion did this. Tina was a mother figure who gave “time outs” Ethan was that reliable brother who had a good head on his shoulders and had a calming presence and Tom was the father who instructed and/or ordered a group who allowed and needed a patriarch. Emotions came in now and again by them but they all had this quality that people essentially listened to and followed their lead.

The UTR Player

You may think I am crazy to assign “UTR” to these people but there is a method to my madness. Typically we think of an under the radar player as someone who lays low while everyone else is screaming “boot me” We attributed players like Vee and Darrah and Butch, etc. as those players. After thinking this through I have found we have another UTR player in a completely different manner. Sandra, Chris and Jenna were those players. What, you say?? They were so NOT under the radar! We saw them constantly and so did the players!! Ah...... this is true but an under the radar player is also considered someone who poses no threat and is essentially overlooked. Each of these players were completely overlooked by others as someone who could or would win this game. Chris not only ended up being a lone man unto himself but he was a player who physically really had no capabilities compared to the other men. He was no threat to anyone. Jenna was young, spoiled, emotional and on a physical playing level, she was average (there were other stronger females there) Sandra had a mouth and an attitude and was absolutely NO asset to her tribe with challenges. All three butted heads with others at times, and got emotionally charged.

How are they UTR players? Simply for the fact that they were probably one of the LAST people that anyone on their season thought would or could win. UTR people slide through BUT they don’t have to be quiet about it

So perhaps we can pick out a few from THIS season that fit these types of players and observe them. Onto what we know..............

Two Tribes - mixed gender and a surprise

We have gone this route many times and generally speaking with a mixed group anything can happen. Usually if the tribes are gender divided, there are assumptions we could make but with tribes made up of females and males it can be anyone’s guess. Usually, age has some factor in the sense that the older people tend to gravitate towards each other and the younger people do the same with the exception of a few who feel more comfortable with what we call a more mature group. We can probably look forward to seeing the flirtation happen as well as some competition for the alpha male role and so forth.

Reasons for early booting in mixed gender tribes have been noted to be based quite often on the age of the person, the health of the person/contribution of the person, as well as who doesn’t seem like they are trying to fit in (either by being too “bossy” or “standoffish”)

Of course interesting to note is the average age of this group is 31 with exactly two people over 40 in each group (equally a male and female on each tribe) . The “odds” don’t favor an older person winning this but we all know stranger things can happen

The introduction of Stephenie and Bobby Jon will surely cause a commotion and probably more than few will NOT be happy about this. Their “true” role is as of yet unknown but it could be fair to assume that they will have some grace period of being safe for simply being prior players. It is up to these two to integrate where their tribe won’t boot them or just keep winning immunity. We already know so much about them as people and physically wise they are both extremely capable. If they only have a one TC reprieve, they may be an automatic second boot though I find it hard to fathom that Mark Burnett would implement this type of “surprise” to have them leave so quickly (but this is a dangerous assumption and I plan letting that just sit on the back burner)

Challenges

Due to the fact that the social game of Survivor has been “outed” quite some time ago (although contestants haven’t quite mastered it ) it seems that the challenges every season get more challenging lol. It is also suggestive because of the overall younger makeup that the challenges will again be strenuous. In Vanuatu we saw an exception but we also had a much larger group of “older” people (most of you know that I loathe calling someone old who is in their forties or fifties but in Survivor world, this is considered “elder”)

In light of the fact that there will no doubt be a very physical season, we may find the first boot is the person who “loses the challenge for their tribe” much like we have seen in the past. This appears to be a very balanced makeup so it is hard to determine which tribe has the advantage physically wise. However, we ALL know that the most physically capable tribe does not equate the winning tribe (last season is the prime example) Teamwork is essential.

Themes

Ancient civilizations, mystery, ruins and so forth. The themes and symbolism are still up for debate as there does not appear to be MAJOR stand out point such as the Aztec/woman correlation, PI/pirate, Vanauta/War-Spirits and so forth. The major theme of the season is still yet to be uncovered for sure but we’ll have a better idea when the first episode airs. Stephenie and BJ’s roles and the description of same if more than just tribal members could play a big part in the theme this season.

The Players

Now the fun part. Last season Jeff’s comments were discussed in conjunction with the comments he posted the season before. Last season seemed to be a little “easier” if you will to dissect the people, perhaps due to such a seemingly diverse group with many “characters” so to speak. One thing we do know, when watching the first episode... those “character” types and how they are highlighted are usually a key in longevity.

Again, Jeff’s comments last year were insightful and did help with assessing who seemed to be there for some duration or not. Caryn: “Moms do okay on this show” Jolanda: “...does it with such force, she’s intimidating” Jonathon: “dark horse” (which interestingly we brought up that he said about Brook.......) Wanda: “Wildcard” and so forth. So while we should always take his commentary with a “grain of salt” I do believe there are nuggets here. Just following pattern as the past seasons:

Tom: Tom is salt-of-the-earth guy. A father. A firefighter. There’s no chance of this guy being a villain. You hope he lasts long enough in the game to be a hero. If he does last for a while, hes he kind of guy who could win it, because people are going to look at him and say, You know what, why not him? Everything about him is good.

I did not watch their videos so those who did can pipe in if what I am saying is completely off the mark outside of what Jeff says

Leaving Stephenie and BJ out of the equation due to the fact that they are more than likely immune the first TC AND regardless of how well they do, MB is going to capitalize on their presence regardless......

Nakum Tribe

Judd Judd is a guy we liked the second he walked in the door. He's this big jovial personality. A doorman from New York city. The big question with Judd is going to be, can he hack it.

Brooke Brooke is one that I'm not sure which way she is going to go. She seems like she's very bright. Could be a nice quiet leader or Brooke could go the other way and sort of fade away

Blake Blake appears on paper to be a guy's guy. Handsome guy,girls like him. That can work for you or against you

Brandon Brandon is from my part of the world, Kansas. He comes off as "hey, I just want to have fun". I don't know if I'm buying that

Danni is someone that I think people are probably going to get behind. She's in great shape. She's tall and she's got a competition background

Margaret is a nurse, a caregiver. She's also a mother, she's raised a family and dealt with those dynamics and she's athletic. Those are 3 big qualities and I think Margaret could do really well in this game.

Cindy is a wild card in this sense...she works with animals, she's out in nature a lot. It seems like the question for Cindy is going to be...what happens when the conflict comes

Jim is a former fire captain. When you've been in a position of power it can work a couple of ways. In Jim's case I think it works in a way that power corrupts

From a brief glance over, Judd appears to speak “character” A New York doorman, chunky (did anyone else think King of Queens?) There is that appearance of a very very strong personality and probably good for laughs. Temper maybe? Judd is probably going to be highlighted with funny confessionals and opinions. He could be disarming to the women and the fun guy to the men. Until and unless he is obnoxious about something, he may do pretty well. Jeff’s comments on Brooke are very noncommital and doesn’t appear to want to say much. With the little to go on, I do have a decent feeling about her. She may lay low and work hard and with the other two younger females there who appear more “visible” she could do pretty well. Blake may have trouble just by looking at the other men. There may be a Ryan problem from Aztec. He may be on the wrong Survivor as the makeup of this group may not care how good looking he is. If he is a hero at the challenges, that could help him. For now, I’m not crazy about his chances. Brandon appears to be another “character” type which helps with longevity. I’m sure he’ll act the part and as Jeff suggests “aw shucks” all over the place. He is no threat to the egos of men and the women may like him a lot. He appears to be someone that should do pretty well on his tribe. Danni will do well SOLEY by her own volition. In this group, that “obvious looker look” may work against her. However, if she is smart, she should make sure and ingratiate herself with the women first and foremost as they would be her biggest enemy there. On paper I have really good feelings about Margaret She is the eldest of the females but definitely not old. She has the “mom” factor and her social skills should be exceptional as a nurse (although I have met some nurses who should not be in that profession ) She could play a nice solid middle ground with the men and the women. The only issue is overstepping the mom boundary This takes great finesse and you either have it or you don’t. Cindy got the wildcard word and I don’t have the best “vibe” about her. I think she could be an early boot in her tribe. Her job description, while sounding extremely interesting, may work against her socially. (This is from someone who would rather hang out with animals sometimes more than people ) Working with animals takes a certain type of person; that person may not do as well with people. She may be wonderful with regard to the show’s outdoor elements but the social aspect of the game may kill her. And finally Jim. By sheer virtue of his age alone, we may surmise that he could be the first boot. An older person with a leadership background has two paths they can go...... BB (S1) or Tom (S10). Considering Jeff’s commentary regarding positions of power/corruption, I don’t get a sense that he is going to be very low key. Cindy and Jim and Brandon concern me for their tribe just by glance

Yaxha Tribe

Brianna I think Brianna has a reason to be out here. It's not about adventure and it's not about money. It's about proving something to herself. I always love those stories.

Gary Hogeboom is a favorite in this sense...he's played at the highest level. Played in the NFL and played in the quarterback spot, the lead spot, where you lead a team. And that is what Survivor is like. You're leading a tribe of people in big time moments. But the thing with Gary is, does anybody know who he is.

Rafe is one of my favorites. Love this guy. Loved him when he walked in the room. Great guy, funny, got a lot of levels to him. From talking to him you can tell that he's a pretty good judge of character. He can sense out who somebody is like, who might be somebody wise to hook up with.

Morgan is somebody who my impression of was...hmm, I don't know, a magician's assistant, a waitress or whatever she was, for the Survivor game, I'm not sure she's going to have it. The more I'm around Morgan the more I'm starting to think, this girl has a lot more than I saw at first glance.

Lydia, the fishmonger. I'm not going to lie. I don't think Lydia is going to last long I think it's because she's not built for this game. This is so tough out here. It's sooo hot. The challenges are so physical. She's in jeans. For crying out loud.

Jamie Newton, his fate rests with himself and his attitude. Jamie can be a lippy, cocky pain the a--. Or he can be a strong competitor and funny and respectful. Time will tell which Jamie comes out."

Ami seems to be a hard worker. Certainly has the job that has put her in social situations where she's had to deal with alot of different people. That could be a skill that really serves her well. Her rough edges are the things that could really get her in trouble out here.

Surface observation but this tribe seems like they will have major inter tribe dynamics and not positive ones at that. This tribe may self combust just from the little I have read! I am not sure on Brianna Usually when someone is there for there own growth, it can lead to a long and wonderful story (but not winning) However, these people could eat her alive and she may be happy to just have gotten there. I would say though on this tribe, she may have a shot to outlast a few of them. She could make merger and being cute on this particular tribe I think will actually work for her. Gary is going to be necessary for this tribe and will no doubt be given highlight due to his profession. Gary should well as from a glance over this tribe will require a leader. Is Rafe and Gary this season’s Tom and Ian? Could very well be. He received high praise from Jeff much like Ian did; appears extremely smart and likeable and for the length of time he is there, we will probably always note his presence. Morgan’s description by Jeff is not necessarily a clue to her longevity. I sense there are bigger fish to fry out there and she may actually stay in the background for now. Lydia may end up being the polar opposite of Margaret which is never good. She is the eldest woman and with athleticism problems, her saving grace may be that she will clearly appear to be non threatening. She may squeak by based on other’s crucial mistakes on how they interact Mess up the first challenge, however, and she could go first. But I have a feeling personality issues with some others may save her for the time being. She may, however, be the first fishmonger to be a fish out of water here. Jamie apparently is going to stir a pot or two and I’m sure he will be seen many times by us. I think he is going to be extremely vocal on who needs to go and manage to get it to happen a few times. He “appears” to be the one that lasts long enough that we can’t wait for him to get booted (Robb perhaps) Ami has me concerned. There is definite “stereotype” to women in her profession and she may come off as being that “bossy, obnoxious” female. She has the potential to be the first female off especially if she appears to have that “Debb” persona. Finally, Brian who I did not see a description by Jeff which doesn’t really bode either way but appears to be smart, is in the younger majority and doesn’t “appear” overly threatening. For now, Amy and Lydia may be in danger, Jamie may be necessary and therefore his personality tolerated for now and I sense that Gary and Rafe do pretty well (Gary may need to be very careful in how he handles this group if he does become the defacto leader)

As always, looking forward to everyone's insight to keep me on the right path and this season appears to have some really interesting and diverse contestants.

Editing in the thread FP refers to because it certainly appears my assumptions were correct that everyone got a wonderful head start on me!

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/5979.shtml