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"The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"	08-18-05, 10:15 AM (EST)
"The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"
LAST EDITED ON 08-18-05 AT 03:15 PM (EST) Greetings everyone! I hope that everyone is having a wonderful summer! Since the Editing thread usually has pre-show discussion, I am posting now and while I have not had a chance to look at how busy everyone appears to be, I am sure everyone has already dissected the whole show! I love dime store psychology and noting patterns over the seasons on why people fail in this game as well as why they may win. Obviously, winning crucial immunity challenges, twists in the game and so forth have a big part in how one ends up winning but there are notable characteristics in the winners that lend to their winning the game which we may want to look at to “guesstimate” who has a good chance. (As always, I leave All Stars out of this since it had an entirely different dynamic) The Clinical Player Players such as Richard, Brian and Vee, if we can remember essentially did not allow emotion to run their game. Vee’s famous “No more drama” summed it up quite nicely. These three are prime examples of a player having a plan and sticking to it. Each had a different method based on the type of person they were but their game play was clinical. They removed themselves emotionally from the game despite the emotion around them. This allowed others to make mistakes while they observed and we know observation is essential to this game. With every pitfall that came, they maneuvered the game their way and watched the others fall. The Head of Household No, this is not Big Brother. I use this term because these players took on a role that allowed others to gravitate towards for instruction, counsel or comfort. Players such as Tina, Ethan and Tom in their own fashion did this. Tina was a mother figure who gave “time outs” Ethan was that reliable brother who had a good head on his shoulders and had a calming presence and Tom was the father who instructed and/or ordered a group who allowed and needed a patriarch. Emotions came in now and again by them but they all had this quality that people essentially listened to and followed their lead. The UTR Player You may think I am crazy to assign “UTR” to these people but there is a method to my madness. Typically we think of an under the radar player as someone who lays low while everyone else is screaming “boot me” We attributed players like Vee and Darrah and Butch, etc. as those players. After thinking this through I have found we have another UTR player in a completely different manner. Sandra, Chris and Jenna were those players. What, you say?? They were so NOT under the radar! We saw them constantly and so did the players!! Ah...... this is true but an under the radar player is also considered someone who poses no threat and is essentially overlooked. Each of these players were completely overlooked by others as someone who could or would win this game. Chris not only ended up being a lone man unto himself but he was a player who physically really had no capabilities compared to the other men. He was no threat to anyone. Jenna was young, spoiled, emotional and on a physical playing level, she was average (there were other stronger females there) Sandra had a mouth and an attitude and was absolutely NO asset to her tribe with challenges. All three butted heads with others at times, and got emotionally charged. How are they UTR players? Simply for the fact that they were probably one of the LAST people that anyone on their season thought would or could win. UTR people slide through BUT they don’t have to be quiet about it So perhaps we can pick out a few from THIS season that fit these types of players and observe them. Onto what we know.............. Two Tribes - mixed gender and a surprise We have gone this route many times and generally speaking with a mixed group anything can happen. Usually if the tribes are gender divided, there are assumptions we could make but with tribes made up of females and males it can be anyone’s guess. Usually, age has some factor in the sense that the older people tend to gravitate towards each other and the younger people do the same with the exception of a few who feel more comfortable with what we call a more mature group. We can probably look forward to seeing the flirtation happen as well as some competition for the alpha male role and so forth. Reasons for early booting in mixed gender tribes have been noted to be based quite often on the age of the person, the health of the person/contribution of the person, as well as who doesn’t seem like they are trying to fit in (either by being too “bossy” or “standoffish”) Of course interesting to note is the average age of this group is 31 with exactly two people over 40 in each group (equally a male and female on each tribe) . The “odds” don’t favor an older person winning this but we all know stranger things can happen The introduction of Stephenie and Bobby Jon will surely cause a commotion and probably more than few will NOT be happy about this. Their “true” role is as of yet unknown but it could be fair to assume that they will have some grace period of being safe for simply being prior players. It is up to these two to integrate where their tribe won’t boot them or just keep winning immunity. We already know so much about them as people and physically wise they are both extremely capable. If they only have a one TC reprieve, they may be an automatic second boot though I find it hard to fathom that Mark Burnett would implement this type of “surprise” to have them leave so quickly (but this is a dangerous assumption and I plan letting that just sit on the back burner) Challenges Due to the fact that the social game of Survivor has been “outed” quite some time ago (although contestants haven’t quite mastered it ) it seems that the challenges every season get more challenging lol. It is also suggestive because of the overall younger makeup that the challenges will again be strenuous. In Vanuatu we saw an exception but we also had a much larger group of “older” people (most of you know that I loathe calling someone old who is in their forties or fifties but in Survivor world, this is considered “elder”) In light of the fact that there will no doubt be a very physical season, we may find the first boot is the person who “loses the challenge for their tribe” much like we have seen in the past. This appears to be a very balanced makeup so it is hard to determine which tribe has the advantage physically wise. However, we ALL know that the most physically capable tribe does not equate the winning tribe (last season is the prime example) Teamwork is essential. Themes Ancient civilizations, mystery, ruins and so forth. The themes and symbolism are still up for debate as there does not appear to be MAJOR stand out point such as the Aztec/woman correlation, PI/pirate, Vanauta/War-Spirits and so forth. The major theme of the season is still yet to be uncovered for sure but we’ll have a better idea when the first episode airs. Stephenie and BJ’s roles and the description of same if more than just tribal members could play a big part in the theme this season. The Players Now the fun part. Last season Jeff’s comments were discussed in conjunction with the comments he posted the season before. Last season seemed to be a little “easier” if you will to dissect the people, perhaps due to such a seemingly diverse group with many “characters” so to speak. One thing we do know, when watching the first episode... those “character” types and how they are highlighted are usually a key in longevity. Again, Jeff’s comments last year were insightful and did help with assessing who seemed to be there for some duration or not. Caryn: “Moms do okay on this show” Jolanda: “...does it with such force, she’s intimidating” Jonathon: “dark horse” (which interestingly we brought up that he said about Brook.......) Wanda: “Wildcard” and so forth. So while we should always take his commentary with a “grain of salt” I do believe there are nuggets here. Just following pattern as the past seasons: Tom: Tom is salt-of-the-earth guy. A father. A firefighter. There’s no chance of this guy being a villain. You hope he lasts long enough in the game to be a hero. If he does last for a while, hes he kind of guy who could win it, because people are going to look at him and say, You know what, why not him? Everything about him is good. I did not watch their videos so those who did can pipe in if what I am saying is completely off the mark outside of what Jeff says Leaving Stephenie and BJ out of the equation due to the fact that they are more than likely immune the first TC AND regardless of how well they do, MB is going to capitalize on their presence regardless...... Nakum Tribe Judd Judd is a guy we liked the second he walked in the door. He's this big jovial personality. A doorman from New York city. The big question with Judd is going to be, can he hack it. Brooke Brooke is one that I'm not sure which way she is going to go. She seems like she's very bright. Could be a nice quiet leader or Brooke could go the other way and sort of fade away Blake Blake appears on paper to be a guy's guy. Handsome guy,girls like him. That can work for you or against you Brandon Brandon is from my part of the world, Kansas. He comes off as "hey, I just want to have fun". I don't know if I'm buying that Danni is someone that I think people are probably going to get behind. She's in great shape. She's tall and she's got a competition background Margaret is a nurse, a caregiver. She's also a mother, she's raised a family and dealt with those dynamics and she's athletic. Those are 3 big qualities and I think Margaret could do really well in this game. Cindy is a wild card in this sense...she works with animals, she's out in nature a lot. It seems like the question for Cindy is going to be...what happens when the conflict comes Jim is a former fire captain. When you've been in a position of power it can work a couple of ways. In Jim's case I think it works in a way that power corrupts From a brief glance over, Judd appears to speak “character” A New York doorman, chunky (did anyone else think King of Queens?) There is that appearance of a very very strong personality and probably good for laughs. Temper maybe? Judd is probably going to be highlighted with funny confessionals and opinions. He could be disarming to the women and the fun guy to the men. Until and unless he is obnoxious about something, he may do pretty well. Jeff’s comments on Brooke are very noncommital and doesn’t appear to want to say much. With the little to go on, I do have a decent feeling about her. She may lay low and work hard and with the other two younger females there who appear more “visible” she could do pretty well. Blake may have trouble just by looking at the other men. There may be a Ryan problem from Aztec. He may be on the wrong Survivor as the makeup of this group may not care how good looking he is. If he is a hero at the challenges, that could help him. For now, I’m not crazy about his chances. Brandon appears to be another “character” type which helps with longevity. I’m sure he’ll act the part and as Jeff suggests “aw shucks” all over the place. He is no threat to the egos of men and the women may like him a lot. He appears to be someone that should do pretty well on his tribe. Danni will do well SOLEY by her own volition. In this group, that “obvious looker look” may work against her. However, if she is smart, she should make sure and ingratiate herself with the women first and foremost as they would be her biggest enemy there. On paper I have really good feelings about Margaret She is the eldest of the females but definitely not old. She has the “mom” factor and her social skills should be exceptional as a nurse (although I have met some nurses who should not be in that profession ) She could play a nice solid middle ground with the men and the women. The only issue is overstepping the mom boundary This takes great finesse and you either have it or you don’t. Cindy got the wildcard word and I don’t have the best “vibe” about her. I think she could be an early boot in her tribe. Her job description, while sounding extremely interesting, may work against her socially. (This is from someone who would rather hang out with animals sometimes more than people ) Working with animals takes a certain type of person; that person may not do as well with people. She may be wonderful with regard to the show’s outdoor elements but the social aspect of the game may kill her. And finally Jim. By sheer virtue of his age alone, we may surmise that he could be the first boot. An older person with a leadership background has two paths they can go...... BB (S1) or Tom (S10). Considering Jeff’s commentary regarding positions of power/corruption, I don’t get a sense that he is going to be very low key. Cindy and Jim and Brandon concern me for their tribe just by glance Yaxha Tribe Brianna I think Brianna has a reason to be out here. It's not about adventure and it's not about money. It's about proving something to herself. I always love those stories. Gary Hogeboom is a favorite in this sense...he's played at the highest level. Played in the NFL and played in the quarterback spot, the lead spot, where you lead a team. And that is what Survivor is like. You're leading a tribe of people in big time moments. But the thing with Gary is, does anybody know who he is. Rafe is one of my favorites. Love this guy. Loved him when he walked in the room. Great guy, funny, got a lot of levels to him. From talking to him you can tell that he's a pretty good judge of character. He can sense out who somebody is like, who might be somebody wise to hook up with. Morgan is somebody who my impression of was...hmm, I don't know, a magician's assistant, a waitress or whatever she was, for the Survivor game, I'm not sure she's going to have it. The more I'm around Morgan the more I'm starting to think, this girl has a lot more than I saw at first glance. Lydia, the fishmonger. I'm not going to lie. I don't think Lydia is going to last long I think it's because she's not built for this game. This is so tough out here. It's sooo hot. The challenges are so physical. She's in jeans. For crying out loud. Jamie Newton, his fate rests with himself and his attitude. Jamie can be a lippy, cocky pain the a--. Or he can be a strong competitor and funny and respectful. Time will tell which Jamie comes out." Ami seems to be a hard worker. Certainly has the job that has put her in social situations where she's had to deal with alot of different people. That could be a skill that really serves her well. Her rough edges are the things that could really get her in trouble out here. Surface observation but this tribe seems like they will have major inter tribe dynamics and not positive ones at that. This tribe may self combust just from the little I have read! I am not sure on Brianna Usually when someone is there for there own growth, it can lead to a long and wonderful story (but not winning) However, these people could eat her alive and she may be happy to just have gotten there. I would say though on this tribe, she may have a shot to outlast a few of them. She could make merger and being cute on this particular tribe I think will actually work for her. Gary is going to be necessary for this tribe and will no doubt be given highlight due to his profession. Gary should well as from a glance over this tribe will require a leader. Is Rafe and Gary this season’s Tom and Ian? Could very well be. He received high praise from Jeff much like Ian did; appears extremely smart and likeable and for the length of time he is there, we will probably always note his presence. Morgan’s description by Jeff is not necessarily a clue to her longevity. I sense there are bigger fish to fry out there and she may actually stay in the background for now. Lydia may end up being the polar opposite of Margaret which is never good. She is the eldest woman and with athleticism problems, her saving grace may be that she will clearly appear to be non threatening. She may squeak by based on other’s crucial mistakes on how they interact Mess up the first challenge, however, and she could go first. But I have a feeling personality issues with some others may save her for the time being. She may, however, be the first fishmonger to be a fish out of water here. Jamie apparently is going to stir a pot or two and I’m sure he will be seen many times by us. I think he is going to be extremely vocal on who needs to go and manage to get it to happen a few times. He “appears” to be the one that lasts long enough that we can’t wait for him to get booted (Robb perhaps) Ami has me concerned. There is definite “stereotype” to women in her profession and she may come off as being that “bossy, obnoxious” female. She has the potential to be the first female off especially if she appears to have that “Debb” persona. Finally, Brian who I did not see a description by Jeff which doesn’t really bode either way but appears to be smart, is in the younger majority and doesn’t “appear” overly threatening. For now, Amy and Lydia may be in danger, Jamie may be necessary and therefore his personality tolerated for now and I sense that Gary and Rafe do pretty well (Gary may need to be very careful in how he handles this group if he does become the defacto leader) As always, looking forward to everyone's insight to keep me on the right path and this season appears to have some really interesting and diverse contestants. Editing in the thread FP refers to because it certainly appears my assumptions were correct that everyone got a wonderful head start on me! http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/5979.shtml
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Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID

RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... Flowerpower 08-18-05 1

   RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... VerucaSalt 08-18-05 2

       RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... Flowerpower 08-18-05 3

       RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... Whole Lotta Rosie 08-18-05 4

RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... applejack93 08-19-05 5

   RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... VerucaSalt 08-19-05 6

RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... LookeeLoo 08-19-05 7

Tribes and Players: Initial Observa... FesterFan1 08-19-05 8

   RE: Tribes and Players: Initial Obs... Flowerpower 08-20-05 9

       RE: Tribes and Players: Initial Obs... Brownroach 08-22-05 12

   RE: Tribes and Players: Initial Obs... Brownroach 08-22-05 10

   RE: Tribes and Players: Initial Obs... TanNymph 08-22-05 11

       RE: Tribes and Players: Initial Obs... VerucaSalt 08-23-05 13

           RE: Tribes and Players: Initial Obs... Whole Lotta Rosie 08-27-05 14

           RE: Tribes and Players: Initial Obs... KObrien_fan 08-27-05 15

               RE: Tribes and Players: Initial Obs... Whole Lotta Rosie 08-27-05 16

               RE: Tribes and Players: Initial Obs... KObrien_fan 08-27-05 17

                   RE: Tribes and Players: Initial Obs... VerucaSalt 08-29-05 18

RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... DRONES 08-31-05 19

Post Ep 1 Flowerpower 09-16-05 20

   RE: Post Ep 1 Booted 09-16-05 21

       RE: Post Ep 1 Brownroach 09-16-05 22

           RE: Post Ep 1 Corvis 09-16-05 28

               RE: Post Ep 1 tribephyl 09-18-05 39

       RE: Post Ep 1 Miscreation 09-16-05 23

       RE: Post Ep 1 VerucaSalt 09-16-05 26

           RE: Post Ep 1 kingfish 09-16-05 27

   Emy's thoughts on Ep 1 emydi 09-16-05 24

       RE: Emy's thoughts on Ep 1 Flowerpower 09-16-05 25

   RE: Post Ep 1 spacey 09-16-05 29

   Loo's thoughts... LookeeLoo 09-16-05 32

       RE: Loo's thoughts... Brownroach 09-19-05 46

A few impressions Loquatrix 09-16-05 30

   RE: A few impressions twinsmomm 09-16-05 33

       RE: A few impressions torchlight 10-02-05 81

RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... michel 09-16-05 31

   RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... Whole Lotta Rosie 09-17-05 34

A few suss incidents applejack93 09-17-05 35

   RE: A few suss incidents VerucaSalt 09-17-05 36

       RE: A few suss incidents emydi 09-17-05 37

"Marathon, Not A Sprint..." Risti 09-18-05 38

   RE: "Marathon, Not A Sprint..." PepeLePew13 09-18-05 40

       RE: "Marathon, Not A Sprint..." Witless 09-18-05 44

           RE: "Marathon, Not A Sprint..." emydi 09-19-05 45

RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... Flowerpower 09-18-05 41

   RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... VerucaSalt 09-18-05 42

       RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... Brownroach 09-19-05 47

   RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... emydi 09-18-05 43

       RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... Brownroach 09-19-05 48

           RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... VerucaSalt 09-19-05 49

Post Ep 2, the Players, the Game, t... Flowerpower 09-23-05 50

   RE: Post Ep 2, the Players, the Gam... Brownroach 09-23-05 51

       RE: Post Ep 2, the Players, the Gam... Flowerpower 09-25-05 63

Week 2 impressions Loquatrix 09-23-05 52

   RE: Week 2 impressions Brownroach 09-23-05 53

       RE: Week 2 impressions Loquatrix 09-23-05 54

           RE: Week 2 impressions Jerrethan 09-23-05 55

           RE: Week 2 impressions Brownroach 09-26-05 66

           RE: Week 2 impressions VerucaSalt 09-29-05 71

Ep. 2 & Music applejack93 09-24-05 56

Emy's thoughts on Ep. 2 emydi 09-24-05 57

   RE: Emy's thoughts on Ep. 2 body 09-24-05 58

       RE: Jon's thoughts on Ep. 2 Undertow12345 09-24-05 59

           RE: Jon's thoughts on Ep. 2 Whole Lotta Rosie 09-24-05 60

               RE: Jon's thoughts on Ep. 2 body 09-24-05 61

               RE: Jon's thoughts on Ep. 2 Witless 09-24-05 62

                   RE: Jon's thoughts on Ep. 2 cadfile 09-25-05 64

                       RE: Jon's thoughts on Ep. 2 VerucaSalt 09-26-05 65

                           Yaxha's vote michel 09-26-05 67

                           RE: Jon's thoughts on Ep. 2 Booted 09-26-05 68

                           RE: Jon's thoughts on Ep. 2 Brownroach 09-26-05 69

                               RE: Jon's thoughts on Ep. 2 VerucaSalt 09-28-05 70

                                   RE: Jon's thoughts on Ep. 2 VerucaSalt 09-30-05 72

                                       RE: Jon's thoughts on Ep. 2 Whole Lotta Rosie 09-30-05 73

                                       RE: Jon's thoughts on Ep. 2 DRONES 10-01-05 78

Wheee! Loquatrix 09-30-05 74

RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... oncebitten 09-30-05 75

   Emy's thoughts on Ep 3 emydi 09-30-05 76

       RE: Emy's thoughts on Ep 3 Witless 10-01-05 79

RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... Bravehart 10-01-05 77

   RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... michel 10-01-05 80

Music and ep. 3 applejack93 10-02-05 82

   RE: Music and ep. 3 Flowerpower 10-03-05 83

       RE: Music and ep. 3 applejack93 10-04-05 86

   RE: Music and ep. 3 VerucaSalt 10-03-05 84

       RE: Music and ep. 3 applejack93 10-04-05 85

Post Ep4- a start with NuNakum King Will 10-07-05 87

   RE: Post Ep4- a start with NuNakum michel 10-07-05 88

       RE: Post Ep4- a start with NuNakum emydi 10-08-05 90

RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... Flowerpower 10-08-05 89

   Music and ep. 4 applejack93 10-08-05 91

       RE: Music and ep. 4 VerucaSalt 10-08-05 92

           RE: Music and ep. 4 Flowerpower 10-08-05 94

       RE: Music and ep. 4 Flowerpower 10-08-05 93

       for BR applejack93 10-09-05 97

RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... frisky 10-09-05 95

   RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... applejack93 10-09-05 96

       RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... VerucaSalt 10-09-05 98

           RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... Whole Lotta Rosie 10-10-05 99

               RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... emydi 10-10-05 100

                   RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... Whole Lotta Rosie 10-10-05 101

                       RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... emydi 10-10-05 103

           RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... King Will 10-10-05 102

               RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... michel 10-10-05 104

               RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... VerucaSalt 10-10-05 105

                   RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... King Will 10-10-05 106

                       RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... DRONES 10-11-05 107

                           RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... VerucaSalt 10-11-05 108

                               RE: The Players, The Game, The Edit... DRONES 10-12-05 111

Nash KObrien_fan 10-11-05 109

   RE: Nash Whole Lotta Rosie 10-11-05 110

Interesting find on CBS site applejack93 10-12-05 112

   RE: Interesting find on CBS site KObrien_fan 10-12-05 113

       RE: Interesting find on CBS site VerucaSalt 10-12-05 114

           RE: Interesting find on CBS site Brownroach 10-12-05 115

               RE: Interesting find on CBS site VerucaSalt 10-12-05 116

                   RE: Interesting find on CBS site Brownroach 10-13-05 117

                       RE: Interesting find on CBS site VerucaSalt 10-13-05 118

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
08-18-05, 02:31 PM (EST)

1. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

Veruca!!!! Welcome back and let me be one of the first this season to send you many warm wishes and to let you know that I have been eagerly awaiting your return!
Rosie and I have been having our own little running discussion regarding Jiffy's cast assessment here. We essentially have been zeroing in on first boot speculation, note the "Rosie Theory"! I think there is something to it.
As you touched on I think BJ and Steph will have an influential role on their respective tribes, bringing with them the repetitive failure of Ulong. I think they may indeed be able to sway their tribes toward the weakest link in the challenge arena. That said, I look to a weaker female, or someone who is not as physically strong in the challenge. Judging from past series, there tends to be one VERY physical combined reward/immunity challenge. I think the weak links will be revealed to both tribes pretty soon. Jim could be in fairly decent shape, despite his age...so it may not be him.
Morgan, Brianna, or Lydia may have a tough time on the other tribe, while Ami could be the one that beats to a different drummer there, although, pre-season she seems pretty determined to acknowledge her weaker points and keep them in check.
I also want to mention that Brooke and Gary have been described as very Christian. Brooke acknowledges that her sole foundation is her religion, while Gary has been described as a "religious nut". I don't know how this will bode for them...I'm reminded of Ashlee from Ulong that noted her extreme faith, and really was not long destined for the show....makes me have some doubts regarding Brooke. I don't know how Gary will "show" his faith on the show.
Just a few comments, and I'm so excited the game is on!

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
08-18-05, 03:33 PM (EST)

2. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

FP, as always it is so nice to "see" you. I edited into my first post the thread you are referring to as I went right ahead and dove in without realizing that more than likely there would be discussion about the cast assessment I looked it over just now and I was right in my assumption that everyone got a great jump start!
The information on Brooke and Gary is very interesting. As I said I only reviewed the cast assessment so thank you very much for that information. The religious convinctions that players have is an interesting dynamic that depends entirely on the players themselves. Interestingly, while Ashlee's religion was described in the cast assessment by Jeff and highlighted, it did not appear to the viewers that this was essentially something that affected her tribe or even Ashlee. Her issue appeared more to be shutting down and unable to withstand a lot of the elements. Whether there was a lot of discussion on the island by Ashlee that she could not handle the game BECAUSE of her beliefs and the compromises she may have to make, we were never told but the impression was more that she essentially quit because she just couldn't handle things (food, enviornment, etc.) I'm not sure to this day why Jeff highlighted her religion in his cast assessment other than to bring up something, anything to cause the people reading the description to wonder if it would cause a problem.
Bobby Jon, on the other hand was a very religious person and that was not stated in his cast assessment though we heard a lot from him during the show. Ironically, Jeff's assessment of Bobby made it appear he was a somewhat shallow with descriptions of his being good looking and acting "aw shucks" and he knows how charming he is. During the course of the show and hearing how spiritual Bobby really was changed my initial opinion of him greatly.
Neither Brooke nor Gary's religion were highlighted by Jeff which makes me question how much of a factor it will be since Ashlee's religion was highlighted but never really made a part of the show and Bobby Jon's wasn't yet was a big element to his persona.
How I have missed all this

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
08-18-05, 07:50 PM (EST)

3. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

As always VS, you are right on! I think people who site religion can go far, yet if they begin to "annoy" others with their beliefs I think it spells major trouble, just as anyone imposes their opinions on others could be annoying. I question how well the deeply religious can keep the game a game....can they lie, backstab, and betray in the name of "the game"? Brooke is definately a smart young woman while Brianna comes across as forceful. I have seen nothing from Gary other than his wishes to stay anonymous.
I am so excited for this season to begin! Maybe it's because it's an unknown, unlike last season!

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Whole Lotta Rosie 104 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
08-18-05, 08:21 PM (EST)

4. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

VS great to have you back. I figure you can make more out the following than I can.
Survivorfever has 12 of the 16 meet the contestant transcripts up. Cindy video was also up, so I transcribed it myself. I apologize in advance for any inaccuracies. Brian, Brianna, and Gary do not have their videos up yet. The link is here. There is still no mention of Steph and BJ, but we should have an idea of who they are already.
http://survivorfever.net/s11_contestants.html
The bolded quotes are from the Early Show and ET promos. KB did this last year and it was quite helpful. Gary, Brianna, and Brian also had quotes but without the transcript it is tough to place them in context.
I also italicized quotes that I felt dealth with some sort of game strategy. I will get to that later.
Brook Struck - Tomboy Brooke
Law student Brooke Struck of Santa Monica, California explains that she can be a 'girly girl' at times, but also a tomboy. She says she also has the athletic ability to succeed.
Brooke: I grew up on a farm, in a small town in Oregon called Hood River and spent a lot of time outdoors...camping, windsurfing, skiing, swimming, all that good stuff. I can be a girly girl at times, and also a tomboy, too. I do like athletics and sports and stuff. I'm not as much into shopping as most girls.
I'm very outgoing, friendly, pretty agreeable, get along with most people. And also smart, and competitive. I think I have a better chance than any of them of winning this. I think I definitely have the mental game. I mean, I've been thinking through strategies, going through scenarios in my head. I've been reading up on, you know, outdoor survival, on the Mayan ruins, you name it. So I'm ready to go, and I've got the athletic ability and I'll be underestimated.
Definitely my faith does, in God and then my family are probably the two most important things. Watch out, don't underestimate me, because I'm going all the way.
One of the things I like to do in my spare time is break my nose.
Blake Towsley
A rugged Texan, Blake Towsley is focusing on playing the game, rather than standing out from the crowd.
Blake: I spent 40 days in the mountains in Wyoming and with that I think that I've got some of that outdoor experience that the girl getting off the plane with the Gucci bag and the Tiffany's necklace doesn't have and I think that that will give me a slight advantage in that sense, so....
I think my biggest worry in this game is myself. I tend to stress and feel anxiety and stuff about things that I might not have control over. And a lot of aspects of this game you don't.
I don't want to take on what I usually try to take on, which is try to do the leadership role. I think that, you've got the chiefs and Indians game going on, and, and there's times to be a chief and time to be an Indian. I think right off the bat, I just want to kind of fall into the fold. Be the provider, you know. I think things like, uh, starting initial fires is, is a task that I want to be nowhere a part of. Fetching water and bringing and finding firewood is something that can easily be done and impressed upon. And you know, an argument is not gonna be made about it.
Texas is definitely my home and, you know, doing modeling and stuff, I've traveled to New York and L.A. And I can't see myself living really in either city. I'm a Midwest boy. I like to skydive and go hunting and play. I like having trees and being able to drive my own car and Texas offers all those advantages.
I can't see myself establishing a relationship on Survivor, but I mean it's... it's a facet that I will definitely exploit to the best of my abilities in order to win.
You know, the only pressure I'm putting on myself is to be a stand-up guy and be a real man. And you know, I mean, like I said... getting off the plane...some of the girls had their Louis Vuitton, and their Tiffany's and Juicy Couture suits, and I was like..."Strap some boots on, sweetheart, we're in Guatemala".
Brandon Bellinger
Brandon Bellinger is a 22-year-old farmer/rancher from Manhattan, Kansas and one of his favorite scents is fresh cut grass. This self-described wild guy explains why he thinks he can win.
Brandon: I'd rather be out here doing this than, you know, plowing a field back in Kansas. Growing up on the farm was a lot of work. I mean, we never really got to uh partake in any of the school activities. I mean, like sports-wise...never really played much sports. I always wanted to play sports. You know, there's that competition. So I never really got to do a lot of that, which I kind of regret but you know. I mean the farm had to be taken care of and everything. I had to work on the farm.
I'm a little bit more wilder. I think I'm gonna be a bit more wilder than everybody else. Willing to do things other people won't do. You know, I'm more fearless. I think I'm probably more fearless than most people out there. And uh, more independent, too. Like, some people may be missing their families, loved ones. You know, I'll miss my family too, of course, but not that much. You know, they're back in Kansas, they're doing fine.
I've done a lot of crazy things. You know, get that adrenaline rush. I uh, climbed one of those radio towers, one time before, you know, just for the, just for the hell of it. Just to see if I could. I used to be terrified of heights, you know. I wouldn't even climb a tree, like, 20 feet up, because, you know, I'm scared of heights but I worked myself out of that because I was pissed off about being scared of heights.
Well, I think their first impressions of me might be...I don't know...I'm some dumb, ignorant hick from Kansas. That, you know, doesn't know anything about anything. But uh, really, I think I'm somewhat cunning, like probably more cunning than most people out here.
<Juggles rocks> See, now watch this one <rock falls>
Cindy Hall
Cindy Hall, a zookeeper from Naples, Florida, is another self-described tomboy. She says that if you let her talk about animals, she’ll think you’re her friend.
Cindy: I would describe myself as a tomboy, um, competitive, athletic, but have a really big heart and that kinda gets the better of me sometimes.
The best way to get on my good side, probably, is to open that whole animal door. Cause if you start talking about animals, and act like you care, or are interested in animals, and let me ramble on for hours about zoo life. Then I am going to think you are my pal. That would be a real easy way to swindle me.
I tend to be naïve about the way people are, initially, which, I am realistically naïve. Because I know the evils that people can do, but I always try to believe that, you know, this person is a good person they are not up to ulterior motives, they really care about hearing this. And then when somebody proves otherwise. It just, it’s devastating to me. It kills me.
You know, I really don’t know what made me opinionated cause I have a twin sister. And with twins, that probably developed my social skills, a little bit, the way they are. Not that, you know, I am really social but it made me more antisocial I think. Because I can have fun, I mean literally, I go out in my canoe with my dog and that’s like the best day in the whole world.
I don’t require a lot to have fun I am a very imaginative and creative person, and, uh, sometimes I act kinda of silly, a jokester, prankster, and act kinda childish, and people, you know, don’t take me very seriously or think I am very intelligent, or, you know, threatening, which could be good for me or could be bad for me.
I tend to be outspoken and very entertaining so I don’t think that its gonna be a problem for people to see me on T.V.
Danni Boatwright - A Bombshell With Biceps
Growing up with seven brothers, Danni Boatwright thinks she's been "pretty prepared for life." But is she prepared for the Guatemalan jungle?
Danni: I grew up with seven brothers in my life, and a dad who was in the SWAT team in Kansas City, Kansas. So I have been pretty prepared for life, because of that. It's cool...I mean...I know how to shoot off. I have 9 millimeter Glock and a .357 Lady Wesson. So if anybody ever broke into my house, they'd be messing with the wrong chick. <laughs> But you have to make sure to keep your head down like that, so it won't have so much kick off of it. The 9 millimeter Glock has a pretty good kick on it, so....
I have a lot of guy qualities. I mean, some of my friends say I'm like six inches away from being a guy . They say, "You're more of a man than I ever thought I'd be." So, I just am such a tomboy, I mean, and my whole life alls I've ever wanted to do was play sports or go to a sporting event. And so there's just nothing really girly about me.
I'm pretty good at reading people, I think. So I'm gonna sit back and see, you know, who would be the strong person to get, in an alliance with.
I think obviously I'm gonna come across pretty girly to them. I think they're going to think I'm just, you know, kind of the uh, probably just another pretty face, kind of thing. I don't know, it'll be interesting. I don't know if they'll look at me and think I'm very athletic, I don't know if you can tell that by looking at me. But after the first challenge or two, they'll know.
I love a challenge, I run marathons, I do adventure runs, you know, I go fishing all the time. Obviously, I'm very outdoorsy. So it's perfect for that. I love it, it's the game. I always wanted to be a professional athlete, and obviously am not, so...
My friends call me Redneck Barbie. My friend called me on the phone, and asked me what I was doing. I told her I was pulling ticks off of my head, after fishing. So, that's where that name came from.
Okay, a huge ultimate fighting fan, and the big strategy with that is to never tap out. So I'm kind of taking that into the game here. I'm never gonna tap out. I'm never gonna give in. And if anybody misbehaves, I'm gonna have to throw one of my ultimate fighting kicks at 'em. <Kicks leg> Whah! There you go.
Jim Lynch - Never Too Late To Be Famous
A retired fire captain, Jim Lynch hopes to apply the leadership skills he learned at the firehouse to Guatemala.
Jim: "It's never too late to be famous!
"Why I hope to. I've got those, some leadership skills, and I hope to, in order to, to be able to take some of those leadership skills in the firehouse, with all those different personalities that you have to, you know, work with. Of course, it, it's a little less of a democracy than you'd like to see in, in "Survivor", you know.
The big thing that, that I fear as the firefighter thing, with Tom doing so well on that other... on Survivor 10... if I have a target on my back. We'll see what happens.
I can't bring that Type A personality... that leadership personality that I think is gonna come out. Now you know... I may not even divulge that I am a firefighter - a retired firefighter. It could come back to bite me. So I may, you know... I've got some other sidelines that I can talk intelligently about. I was a hazardous materials specialist and an emergency medical tech, so I can talk about those things, if that's who I need to be. You know, if I need to assume another persona. That's what I'll have to do.
If I don't guard against it I probably could be a little kind of ground... ground against some of the, you know, the ladies that take on that persona of telling guys what to do. Yeah, I, think the group dynamics probably worries me. Like we talked before about how I can come off too strong.
Never go to bed or go to sleep mad. Never go to bed pissed off. Oh, I shouldn't have said that, but you know...never go to bed mad. Always, always apologize or get together before you either leave or go to bed at night, make up.
Judd Sergeant - Judd Brings That NYC Attitude
A Manhattan doorman, Judd Sergeant doesn't like being told what to do. He's serious about upholding his city's lofty reputation.
Judd: Yes sir, I am a New Yorker, and I'll bring the ruthlessness and the cunningness to this game.
I really basically have no choice, I have to be happy. I'm a doorman in Manhattan so the happier I am the bigger tips I get. I would describe myself as very active, a personable person, gets along with everybody, and uh, just one proud New Yorker...simple as that.
I serve many roles. As soon as I go downstairs and put on that uniform, I'm on Broadway. That's it, I put that uniform on, I zipper it up, here I am. I'm stepping on Broadway and I'm only a block away from it. Yeah, I gotta be a psychiatrist, your bartender... you know, whatever you need, I'll do my best to make sure you have it, to fulfill your time in Manhattan. Cause we've gotta give Manhattan that reputation, that it's just one of the best cities in the world.
I look at it this way...that school bus dropped me off. That big yellow school bus dropped me off in the jungle but my mother forgot to pack my lunch. So now I've gotta get along with my schoolmates. And we're lost.
I've never really not gotten along with anybody. So that could be a problem, if somebody... if you're not personable to me, then that would make me feel uncomfortable. Because I'm a very personable person. I like to not talk that much but when I'm talked to I like to be you know, respected. What aggravates me is somebody telling me what to do when they don't know what they're talking about.
I mean, I don't stay in New York, my whole entire.... You know, I go away, I go camping, I, I do certain things. I've never been in this, jungle aspect of it, but you know, I'm....
New Yorkers can do whatever they want. If they put their mind to it, man, they can do whatever they want.
Margaret Bobonich - Margaret Bobonich Works Hard
This 43-year-old Nurse Practitioner knows you have to work hard to get what you want, and that’s one of the rules she’ll be sticking to in the "Survivor: Guatemala" competition.
Margaret: My one son jokes with me because he calls me the man-child, you know. And my other son says "Mom, where's the weight room?" You know? So we have a good time with health at our house. It's a joke, but we enjoy it.
I am a very determined 43-year-old woman who probably believes that she's still on 20. And, uh, I get whatever I'm going after. That's just all there is to it. Nothing in life is handed to ya. I accept that, I've lived that. So, I'll work for it, I'll get it.
I'm used to dealing with pressure, and stressful situations. So, the more the stress, the more the pressure, the better I am. I'm just gonna lay low because I don't want them to see me as a big physical or intellectual threat.
There's two, uh, important rules that I live by. One is: nothing is free, nobody gives you anything. Anything you want, you have to work for. And that's the first thing. The second thing is: if you want it bad enough, go after it. Nothing is impossible. Go ahead, dream, and go after it.
Amy O'Hara
Amy O'Hara is a 39-year-old police sergeant from Massachusetts and she can smell bull form a mile away — something she knows will be vital in the 'Survivor: Guatemala' competition.
Amy: I didn't come from...my whole life I'm outgoing, I'm assertive. My father was the same way. I have great instincts and common sense...street smarts. I think maybe because my father was a cop, and it's my character of who I am. It just makes me a better police officer.
First of all, you have to toughen up and suck it up. That's gonna be my motto...toughen up and suck it up. I think you have to have a great attitude. You have to be positive in this situation especially with the group dynamics. You have to be able to listen to somebody or take the lead if you have to. I think just remaining positive is going to help me along the way. The ability to motivate...persuade people.
I've dealt with people my entire career, I've been 14 years in law enforcement. Eleven years as a cop, two and a half years as a corrections officer in a prison. I've dealt with it all - people will try to be deceptive. If you think you're gonna play me, think again. It's not gonna happen.
In law enforcement, I have to deal with some of the most deceptive people you've ever seen. People are trying to get over on me so I have experience dealing with people. I'm like this with questions <snaps fingers>. Or I'm like this <snaps fingers> when somebody says something. I can just come back with lines like that <snaps fingers> or questions, or say things without hesitation. I have a great chance of winning because of my gift of rap. I know how to go with the flow, talk to people, persuade them, whether I like them or not. I think that's gonna be my weapon.
Sir, calm down, calm down, calm down. Sir, you're gonna have to calm down, or I'll have to place you under arrest. Calm down sir. I'm telling you, I'm not gonna say it again. That's it...stop resisting...stop resisting! Down!!!
Jamie Newton - A Baby With Teeth
A waterskiing instructor, Jamie Newton hopes his love his athleticism will come in handy during the grueling Survivor challenges.
Jamie: I think Georgia guys are so special because they open doors for ladies and the accent. They're just sweet as pie, I guess you could say.
I was on "All My Children", for an episode. Because uh, they had a contest, "Sexiest Man in America"...the fusion thing and I was lucky enough to get third.
I wrestled in high school and college. I played sports all my life but if I can make top eight in this, that's what we consider All American. That's my goal: to be top eight in this Survivor game. This is the ultimate challenge...dealing with other people. I made it this far, so I feel like I'm in the national finals right now.
Yeah, I'm one of the babies in the group, but uh, I want everybody to know this baby has its teeth. And I'll bite somebody.
I think I'll stand out in this competition because, you know, I'm crazy, I'll do anything. I'll bite a crocodile if it takes me to get a million dollars. If that's what it means for me to be able to take care of my mom, then I'll do it.
I'm a sexy guy, who knows how to talk to women. Yea-ah...<laughs>
The thing that angers me most is fake people. People that just aren't themselves, just trying to be somebody they're not. Posers, if you would...I hate that.
Lydia Morales - Lydia Morales' Big Guns
The 42-year-old Fishmonger from Lakewood, Washington talks a little about herself, what she expects from the competition and why she could possibly be a winner
Lydia: The kind of person that I am is: happy-go-lucky, life is too short, so live to the fullest, and I enjoy talking with people, meeting people. And I think I'm relatively shy and I need to overcome my shyness. So I guess that's one of the reasons why I'm here today.
I think it's time for me to live. I mean, I took care of my parents when they were ill, for quite some time. And, uh, I raised my son, and my son is 17 years old, and uh, I did a terrific job being a Mom. So I thought to myself: when is it my turn to live? And I thought this would be a perfect opportunity to put my foot forward, and start... start anew for me. Start something challenging... finding myself and overcoming some of those obstacles. I think I can fit in very, very well. I think I have the personality, um, I love to help people. I can suggest or I'm gonna be one of those that's gonna be a provider.
I think people might look at me like, "Oh, she's very small." I'm only 4'10", you know. I'm the smallest one in this group but I have that feisty, that go-get-them attitude. I have the determination - that will inside me.
When people ask me what I'm bringing into this show, I'm gonna say "My guns...Curly and Moe, or Cuff and Link".
Morgan McDevitt - The Magician's Assistant
Morgan McDevitt is a 21-year-old magician's assistant who also works as a waitress. She says she's pretty impulsive and hopes that won't get her in trouble during the competition.
Morgan: I'm the oldest of four. Um, my mom had me when she was 20. So we kind of... grew up together.
My mom was in an abusive relationship when I was younger. And so I have kind of had to be there for my brothers, which has kind of made me like very strong willed, and very independent.
I know that I'm like put on this Earth to do something great. I just don't know what it is yet. So I'm just kind of exhausting the possibilities, trying to do as much as I can to figure it out. And what, you know, greater experience than this?
People that are just like outright rude to others...you know, I don't really have a need to just like make fun of people for no reason. I'm pretty uh, tolerant of all different types.
I am very impulsive, and I hope that that won't get me in trouble when I'm out there...because sometimes you, I talk before I think and that's not always a good thing.
Rafe Judkins
Rafe Judkins is a 22-year-old student from Providence, R.I. He's also a gay Mormon and is pretty sure his 'Survivor' competitors will underestimate him based on that alone.
Rafe: I'm a gay Mormon Ivy League grad wilderness guide. Mormon's are so focused on family and caring about other people and there are so many things about the Mormon religion that I want to bring to my life. If I have a husband and kids I want us to have family evening on Monday nights and all get together and play board games and do whatever. I think that the Mormon church as so much good that you can take from it.
I can interact really well with people and be emotional and understanding and not have this macho thing that I can stand up for, not that all straight guys do but you know. Alot do have that kind of chip on their shoulder. I don't have anything to prove out there.
I can also compete well in the challenges. I can do alot of work around camp. You can take the best of both worlds and use it well in the game.
I won't humiliate someone else in front of their family and the nation. I won't...I'm only going to do anything bad if I absolutely have to...to stay alive in the game. I'm not going to go out there to be the bad and to do cruel things to people just because I can. I'm going to try to play as clean as I can.
I think that bother me most are the people who aren't open to listening to me caring about others who have their opinion and they're going in there and not changing it no matter what you say or do to prove them wrong. I think those kind of people can be really really frustrating to deal with. I really hope there aren't any. I'm sure there will be.
People underestimate me. They're going to look at me and see that I'm friendly and that I'm this gay guy... what damage can he do to anyone. They won't expect that I will probably be the smartest person out there. That I have a ton of outdoors experience. That I really know how to play this game.

I have made an attempt to review the last couple of years of pre-show confessionals and I am beginning to believe that MB, right off the bat, begins to define his characters. Strategy has always been an integral part of the show and I think that MB wants to showcase the players that play well and those that play poorly. At the same time he also wants to develop his characters.
Heavy Backstory – These are the characters that by the time you finish watching their pre-show confessionals you know just about everything about them. They tend to be tremendous underdog stories. Their victory is just being here. Jolanda, Wanda, and Jon received these confessionals last year. Morgan and Lydia get them this year. However, last year this may have been more important. There were three boots in the first episode, and we needed to get up to speed on the characters. This year the question is somewhat debatable, if Steph and BJ return in the opening episode this could require more backstory for potential boots. If not, this could be less important.
Food for the wolves – These characters just have no concept for the game. They may willing to lie and cheat or don’t think they will be able to lie and cheat, but they tend to lack the flexibility to play the game. There often say, “I might”, “I think”, “I hope” that I can behave in a certain matter, but it is not integrated into their game plan. They also can be “bossy” or just there for the adventure. These tend to be early boots. This year Jim, Cindy, and potentially Brianna and Gary (based on limited info) fit this category. Amy also fits this category (if only from the bossy perspective) but she has some extenuating circumstances, which could lead her past the early boot category.
Characters A & B & C – Survivor is all about characters, the contestants probably would not be on the show unless they were a character of some sort, but each year MB tends to only focus on a few of them. They tend not to win but they tend to last between late pre-jury and all the way to the final two.
Characters define themselves in their pre-show confessionals. Last year Coby was “the Gawky Gay Kid”, Angie was “the Freak”, James was “the Red Neck”, Janu was “the Show Girl”, and Katie was “the Comedian.
I distinguish between A and B&C because I think KB had something last year, the focus of the Early Show and ET quotes is important. Those who appear to be characters and get a character defining quote during the promos are definitely set up to be characters. Those who don’t may end up in other categories. I only state this because Rafe, “the Gay Morman” or Jamie the “Sexy Guy” didn’t receive promo quotes. The both scream character, but they might not be edited this way. Rafe could become a more long-term strategic player, while Jamie may become food for the wolves, and go earlier.
The Character B&C (Those with promo quotes) appear to be:
Braden, this year’s redneck
Danni: this year’s Barbie Redneck
Judd: this year’s New Yorker
Amy: this year’s female enforcement officer.
Blake: on potential part of this year’s couple
Brian: this year’s elitist (this in only because of his quote).
However, their also may be difference between Category B&C. Category C characters have established, from their pre-show confessionals, that they are not only a character but a strategic player as well. The italicized sections from the above interview focus on what I see are more strategic quotes.
Danni, Amy, and Blake all fit this category and I think potentially Brian could as well (just a hunch). These players tend to finish in the jury and are also maybe a final two opponent.
The final category is the strategic players. They are not defined as characters, but each discuss strategy in their pre-show confessional. They are Brooke and Margaret. Rafe also gets a nod here because I am still unsure if he will be a character or a game player.
These players have won in the past and usually finish in the final 5.
Just based on last year.
Pre-Jury
Wanda - Backstory
Jon – Backstory
Jolanda- Backstory
Ashlee – Food for the Wolves
Kim – Food for the Wolves
Jeff – Food for the Wolves
Willard – Food for the Wolves
Ashlie – Character B
James – Character B
Ib – Food for the Wolves
BJ – Character B

The Jury was:
Coby: A definite Character B or C
Janu: A surprising Character C
Stephanie: A surprising Character A.
Gregg: Nothing, this guy’s pre-show confessional tells us Zilch
Caryn: Strategic Player
Jenn: Strategic Player
Ian: Strategic Player
Katie: Character C
Tom: Tough one, but he was either a Character C or a strategic player. He promo quote was
I like my job, there's no two fires that are the same, there's no two circumstances in this game that are the same.
You can read this quote in several different ways. It either defines him as a fire fighter or as a game player. But since it was also a strategic quote, I am going to define him as a strategic player. Hindsight is 20/20.
Interestingly this quote and Ian’s I always said that I can talk a fat man out of his bag Doritos were the only two strategic quotes used in the promos.
This year the only two quotes in the promos that can possibly be considered as strategic are Blakes’ the I can't see myself establishing a relationship on Survivor, but I mean it's... it's a facet that I will definitely exploit to the best of my abilities in order to win.
… and Amy’s I've dealt with it all - people will try to be deceptive. If you think you're gonna play me, think again. It's not gonna happen.
In conclusion, Amy will finish somewhere between the first boot and winner.
This will be my only perfect prediction this year.

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applejack93 288 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
08-19-05, 09:11 AM (EST)

5. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

YAY!! VS is back!
Now, finally, maybe my posts will become more numerous.
I'm excited for this season, VS, they look like a much more interesting bunch than the last lot.

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08-19-05, 04:13 PM (EST)

6. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

aj wonderful seeing you and I am looking forward to hearing from you as always
Rosie - what great information; you and flower have been very busy and already making it easy for me Thank you for posting the information because it does lend more insight and I have not yet been able to read them. My initial opinions are still pretty much the same and I'm going to briefly look at what you posted

Brook Tomboy and feminine is always a nice mix (provided it is accurate ) She does use "I think" quite a bit. However, I will defer on making a judgment call on that since some people tend to use words like "um" and "I think" etc. when they are in front a camera.
Blake Interesting that he compares himself (re: outdoor experience) to women as opposed to men (being male) I should hope he is more concerned about the other men but time will tell. He makes mention of this twice. Somewhere there may lie some issue he has about these "Gucci" women. Sounds like insecurity to me. Another interesting note is Blake does not want to take the leadership role but admits that is what he does. Blake may fall right into attempting to take it which may cause a problem.
A key observation in all the seasons of Survivor is that when one tries to be something they are not, more times than not, they fail and revert back to who they really are.
Brandon still gives me a good feeling. He shouldn't have a problem out there as far as "roughing" it and I do still believe he will be embellished by Mark Burnett.
Cindy I am still concerned about Cindy's stay there. Her discussion about animals is nice to hear but she appears to be very comfortable in her small niche and I don't necessarily feel she will be able to grasp the social aspects of this game. The fact that she is also a twin may also have something to do with a potential reclusiveness. Some (not all mind you) twins, being very close to their sibling do not branch out as much as others as they are extremely close to their sibling. She may be one such as this.
Danni Danni with her family will know how to deal with numerous people in different situations. In addition, her athletic abilities may help override any preconceived notions about her looks. If she is disarming with the women, she will be accepted by them.
Jim I still have questions about Jim. He is the eldest which can always be detrimental and he may come across too domineering. He knows he needs to be careful in this area but Sandra even knew in her interview she needed to watch her mouth and we saw she was unable to do so (in her case, however, it didn't matter )
Judd Sergeant Judd no doubt will be highlighted greatly as already discussed. My feelings on his longevity remain the same right now.
Margaret Like Judd, my opinion on Margaret remains the same. Care givers, if handled correctly, do very well on Survivor as people need that in their lives. If Margaret handles it tactfully, she could go very far.
Amy I still have concerns over Amy. Her motto may serve her well in law enforcement but not very well on this show. Unfair perhaps, but some personality traits are accepted by one gender and not others. If a man cries, he may be regarded as weak. If a woman is dominant, she is a bossy shrew. If Amy cannot rein in this aspect of her personality, she will be in trouble. I have a hard time believing she can.
Jamie Another character, Jamie, as already discussed may be one of those contestants that we will be cheering when he gets booted off. I have no doubt we will hear a lot from him and about him and he will probably do pretty well but I see him going down the path of Robb, Rob and so forth.
Lydia I'm still contemplating Lydia. She may be (as Jeff likes to say) a dark horse. She could be that person who gets very far (surprisingly)or the weak link that goes quickly. She may be one of those that we see on the show embarking on a story journey which we will have a better handle on after seeing her in action and in confessionals. She could be our Twilla or our Sonja/Janet, etc.
Morgan I'm still debating Morgan as well. As of now, her interview has not changed my initial thoughts.
Rafe Again, I have very good feelings about Rafe. Men will not be threatened by him; women will be his friend. I tend to not like to compare contestants with other contestants but I do see shades of Ian with him but I'm attempting to keep this at bay so my perception remains clear.
What a wonderful start we have so far. I agree aj that this cast appears to have extremely interesting people.

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LookeeLoo 1169 desperate attention whore postings
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08-19-05, 07:12 PM (EST)

7. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

Woohoo! Wonderful pregame work, VS, Ms. F Power and Rosie!
I'll very interested in the roles that Steph and yummy BJ will play. Will they make the same mistakes? No one wanted to be led by anyone on Solong, so their team was not cohesive. Steph played a big part in voting out what's her name. She was a threat as a leader and also in strength to Steph. I'll be looking for the early voting to come down to "who does not play well with others", versus strength, even though we've been told that this season is gonna be harsh. We've all seen what the strong Solong tribe could do.
I need to go back and look at the breakdown of the teams. I think that the leaders who can keep the teams together seem to be the elders of the groups. They've got major experience in knowing how to work as a team in my mind. I see that as being Margaret, Jim, Gary and Ami. I see these peeps leading in a team way with eachother, and the more of them on one team, the stronger that team may be.
LookeeLoo

Another Dicey Original 2004

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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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08-19-05, 11:54 PM (EST)

8. "Tribes and Players: Initial Observations"

LAST EDITED ON 08-19-05 AT 11:54 PM (EST)
This thread is a very good read, as one would expect given the minds at work here. I thought I'd chime in early with some of my own thoughts...
Nakum
This is a tribe full of outdoorsy people. Blake, Brandon, Jim, Cindy, Brooke, and Margaret all have either mentioned spending a good deal of time outdoors or look comfortable outdoors. Add Bobby Jon to this mix, and you've got a tribe that shouldn't have much trouble around camp in terms of work ethic. Judd's the only city boy here.
Most of the members of this tribe remind me of someone who did well. However, unless Yaxha gets Ulonged, some of these peeps are going home early. I think tribal circumstance rather than character will determine who succeeds and who fails out of this group.
Blake: This guy is a salesman. He seems like a cross between Brian and Colby. I don't think he's got the strategy of Brian and I don't think he's got the challenge skills of Colby, but he's bound to bring elements of both of their games into this tribe. I think he's slick enough to make it a long way...unless he's really more John P. than Brian/Colby.
Brandon: He seems like BJ Jr. He's young. He's fit. He looks to have a great work ethic having grown up on a farm and talking about the sacrifices he made because of the work that needed to be done. He has an "aww shucks" demeanor to him. If BJ is competing and if those 2 don't butt heads trying to be the camp's chore whore, they could be a nearly unbreakable alliance.
Brooke: On paper, she looks like the real deal. She's smart, she's young and athletic, and she's spent a good deal of time outdoors. However, she comes from a demographic (women in their mid-20s) who don't generally do so well. Unlike women under 25, those between 25 and 30 are all early exits or mid-jury types. The lone exceptions are Katie and Sandra (late 20s) who lasted as long as they did because they were perceived as weak non-threats. I don't think Brooke will fall into this category. So Brooke's going to have to think her way past 7th place, because she'll be targeted before then. Count on it.
Cindy: Here's someone who might have benefitted from tribal placement. She seems like the sort of person who might have a hard time connecting, but she's got enough folks around her on this tribe who might have some common nature interests that she might find a group to bond with. I still think she's too naive to be considered a real threat to win. Her best chance is if she teams up with some combination of Brandon, Blake, and/or BJ.
Danni: She reminds me of a cross between Alicia and Jerri. She's got the tomboy/athletic focus of Alicia, but she seems to have the sassiness and vanity of Jerri. I'd bet she's got a mouth to match either of them, seeing as she talks sports for a living. Her biggest challenge is going to be knowing when to shut her piehole and to choose her battles. She's been put into a group that probably won't tolerate a prima donna.
Jim: Contrary to popular opinion, older males (those over 50) do very well in this game. Jim reminds me of 3 of them (Jake, Paschal, and Rodger B.). He appears to be laid back and shrewd. All he has to do is not draw attention to himself early, and he's golden until all the "threat" boots are gone (which should put him in the F6). The only males in this age group who have failed are BB and Willard, and they were both sent home early almost entirely because of demeanor. I don't think Jim is that type of personality. I think he's more of a Papa Bear type like the 3 I mentioned above, and I wouldn't be surprised to see this guy make the finale.
Judd: His downfall, I'm afraid, is strictly tribal placement. He is a complete fish out of water here. In pretty much any other tribe in the history of this show, I'd like his odds. Here? Not so much. It's going to take tremendous social skills for him to stay alive in this tribe. He seems to be a very affable guy with a great sense of humor. Good. He's going to need that in spades. Not only is he the only person in his tribe who looks out of place in a jungle, he's easily the least fit of the bunch. With this quasi-granola group, that's going to play more of a factor than it might otherwise. I don't think he can't "hack it" as Jeff suggests. Overweight guys don't generally wilt on this show. It's the skinny ones who have fatigue issues.
Margaret: This woman has F4 written all over her. She's from a prime demographic (Moms who work in a nurturing profession in their early 40s). She reminds me of a fitter Tina. Now, that may work to her disadvantage. No one really viewed Tina as a threat until it was too late. If she doesn't draw too much attention to herself, and can stroke the egos of the males in camp, she's almost a mortal lock for the finale.
To sum up: I like Brandon, BJ, and maybe Margaret and/or Cindy to make a core alliance of 3/4. I also like Margaret to bond with Jim. I think Blake, Danni, and Brooke are your tribal schemers. Judd is on the outside looking for a place to fit.
Yaxha
This tribe has the "on paper" makings of Samburu II. You have 5 players under the age of 25 and 3 who are 39 and older. Talk about your generation gaps. And to make things worse, you have probably 2 older players who are used to barking orders (Amy and Gary) and 2 or 3 youngin's with serious brat potential (Jamie, Morgan, and Brian). If Stephenie is playing, it'll be interesting to see how she fits into the mix. She's a bit older, and years wiser (in a Survivor sense) than those closer to her age, but they have the numbers with or without her. What I'd like to see to even the odds a bit is for Stephenie to try to reach out to Rafe (who looks like the only one who would really know the value of the older players) to swing the balance of power there.
As opposed to Nakum, this tribe has a bunch of folks who remind me of players who didn't do so well. And yet, as I mentioned above, some of those are likely to make it to at least the merge.
Amy: She comes into this tribe with a two-strike count: 1) She's overbearing and 2) she's on the short end of the age stick. If ever there was a prime first boot candidate, here she is. I have a feeling she's going to get along with Jamie about as well as oil gets along with water. I really think the first Yaxha boot is going to be her or Jamie, depending upon which group Rafe winds up voting with. But watch, she'll turn out to be Twila Redux. Nah, something like that only happens once in a blue moon.
Brian: This guy reminds me of a male Eliza. He thinks he's smarter than he really is. Eliza did make it very far in the game, but she was a target throughout. I'd look for Brian to have the same type of target. To his benefit and like Eliza, Brian has a tribe that seems to be ripe with better boot options. If he's as smart as he says, he'll be able to deflect attention onto those players and stay around a while. If not...see ya.
Brianna: Here's what's in her favor: her age. 21-year-olds have done ridiculously well on this show (Neleh, Jenna M., and Eliza). She seems more of a Jenna than a Neleh or Eliza. If she can make Morgan her Heidi, she may do very well. What she doesn't have is an abundance of young males who will be drooling over her (then again, neither did Jenna early on). So, against what I see with my eyes, I'm picking her to last a while.
Gary: I don't think Gary has to worry about his tribe knowing who he is. More than half of them were spending their days sitting Indian-style in a semi-circle and cutting with safety scissors when he played his last NFL game. Amy may know him, but she's gonna need his ass to stay in the game if she's got any chance. While I don't think Gary's as far down the freak end of the spectrum as Roger S. was, he's certainly on the same side of the fence. He's probably closer to a Sarge-type personality in terms of work ethic and loyalty and the like. And while neither Roger or Sarge did poorly, they never really had a shot at winning this thing. In this tribe, Gary doesn't have the numbers to be Mr. Quarterback ordering folks around. I hope he realizes that for his sake.
Jamie: Tell me this guy isn't Robbbbb's kid brother. Wow, does he look like a smug bastard, or what? He needs to thank his lucky stars he wound up where he did, with a natural majority, because there's no way in hell this guy cultivates that kind of pull. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if he caused Rafe or Brian (or both) to jump to the Geezer Set. If the Brats stay tight, he makes the merge, otherwise he's first one out.
Lydia: I'm with Jeff on this one. I don't think she's long for this game. Her saving grace may be that the rest of her tribe is so damn combative that she may escape unnoticed to the merge. At that point, she could Sandra her way into the endgame. Gotta say, I don't like her odds of that happening, though. I think she follows Amy as boot #2 from Yaxha. I just don't see what she brings to the table. She's not going to be a challenge asset. She's not a leader. The kids in her tribe aren't going to value her work ethic the way a more mature tribe might. It's a long road ahead for Lydia.
Morgan: This chick is going to be the gal we love to hate. Mark my words. Read her damn bio if you doubt me. She claims that her greatest achievement is "allowing" her parents to live vicariously through her performances and travelling. She's also quoted as saying that she's sure she was put on this Earth to do great things. She's the type of gal Brianna could sell $285 skin cream to. Frankly, I don't see how she's going to last more than a week without a mirror. She could very easily be the Heidi to Brianna's Jenna. If that happens, my head may very well explode.
Rafe: If Rafe knows what's good for him, he'll run screaming from Brianna, Morgan, and Jamie. Maybe Stephenie can facilitate that. However, if Stephenie's not a participating member of this tribe, he may stick with his age group for numbers reasons. I really want to believe that Rafe is more Cesternino than Africa Brandon. One things for sure, he won't be seduced by the wonder twins. I like him to go far in no small part because I want him to go far. I think he'll be entertaining.
Summing up Yaxha, I think you have a core trio in Brianna, Morgan, and Jamie. You also have a "bond or die" trio of Amy, Gary, and Lydia. Rafe, Brian and Steph are the wild cards. Where they go, so goes the future of this tribe.
Fester

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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08-20-05, 09:33 AM (EST)

9. "RE: Tribes and Players: Initial Observations"

Excellent read, Fester, I loved your take on things, as I always do! One comment regarding the Yaxha tribe, in the pregame shots, Brian seems to have latched on to Morgan....just seems to me, what do you think? Brian could throw in with the Brianna, Morgan, and Jamie group, but as you concluded, Rafe and Steph will be the determinant! Great read!

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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08-22-05, 03:25 PM (EST)

12. "RE: Tribes and Players: Initial Observations"

I see Brian going with the brats initially as well. He seems immature to me. That gives them an automatic four, so, as Fester said, where Rafe goes may depend on whether or not Stephenie has a vote.
I think Steph would throw in with the older crew, especially after her experience on Ulong. And the brats (especially Brianna and Morgan) are more likely to resent her being there, imo, whereas the older folks will be able to take her presence in stride. Offering Rafe an alliance early might be a good strategic move for Stephenie in that event.

Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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08-22-05, 11:17 AM (EST)

10. "RE: Tribes and Players: Initial Observations"

I like your thoughts, Fester. My first impression was also that overall Nakum looks better on paper, and that the age distribution on Yaxha is going to be a factor in splitting the tribe. I was also thinking the same thing about Judd; he already seems to look a bit at sea in the camp shots.

Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

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TanNymph 309 desperate attention whore postings
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08-22-05, 01:31 PM (EST)

11. "RE: Tribes and Players: Initial Observations"

Fester, enjoyed reading your comments very much. If this plays out similar to your thoughts, its going to be fun to watch. My fav comment is about the younguns sittin' Indian style in a semi-circle while Gary's playing his last game. Very funny!

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
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08-23-05, 09:37 AM (EST)

13. "RE: Tribes and Players: Initial Observations"

Fester and BR, always nice to see you and looking forward to your observations once the show begins
There have been so many editing theories. Some believe them and some don't; they are strictly a matter of opinion and we either believe them or not but either way, I love hearing all of them! Since the show is coming around the pike, there are beliefs and theories that many of us look at in determining character longevity.
One "theory" that has spanned the seasons is the "winning quote"
Some of you know that I usually do not subscribe to that ONE "winning quote" I do believe that after Mark Burnett did this in the first season he made sure that he muddied the waters enough that one has to look extremely hard to find that nugget. I tend to look at it more like the winning aura We can use so many examples over the seasons out of the mouths of the winners themselves or from other contestants about the winners and so forth that it is hard to pin down that one "winning quote"
In hindsight, it is very easy to find the quote that acknowledges the winner
I do believe that certain quotes can assist in what may lay down the road for contestants. It is no secret that I LOVE quotes and use them after every show but my personal belief is that they help to assist what Mark Burnett is trying to tell us about this person, their strategy and how he wants the viewers to see them.
Last season I put forth an example with Katie. Katie was consistenly discussed negatively and everything that we heard from Katie sounded negative though there must have been a moment or two where it didn't happen. This set up a perfect editing for her character to be the "bad guy" which was exactly how she ended up. (This goes in conjunction with that person who is edited to be the villian as either a final two foil or one who gets pretty far in the game where we are thrilled to see them gone)
Therefore, with respect to quotes.... they are extremely useful in interpreting what Mark Burnett wants the audience to feel with respect to a character and their longevity.
Over the seasons, we have tried to assess what Mark Burnett does with his "winner" in terms of editing. Mind you, there are some "characters" that overshadow the winner and sometimes it leads us astray. Hopefully as the seasons have gone on, we have been able to (for the most part) decipher Mark Burnett's editing of who may win and those contestants that he just wants to highlight.
Perfect example is Rupert of course Rupert was extremely popular with the majority of the television audience and was shown consistently as this larger than life persona. However, as we know, he failed miserably strategically and his emotions and insecurities got the best of him.
What I try to attempt to do at the very beginning of the season is ascertain how the winners are EDITED. Again, in this thread, we judge the longevity of the characters based on the editing of the show as this is something that Mark Burnett has (in my opinion) has taken to levels that we don't see normally.
The winner is not a one dimensional character. If we see a progression of a character in one context, it normally is a clue that they won't win but rather are being established as either the lazy person, the funny person, the evil person, etc.
If we can't quite put a finger on someone, that may be a good sign.
The winner, for the most part if portrayed negative early on, is somewhat redeemed in some fashion by either themselves OR by making another character worse. Obviously, opinions of the contestants are purely subjective as evidenced by the wonderful debate we had last season regarding Tom Some of you thought him to really become arrogant and some felt otherwise. Regardless, Tom was never portrayed as a horrible person and the mere fact that Katie was established as much worse, assisted.
Confession is good for the soul Corvis and KB have done wonderful work tracking the confessionals and the patterns that unfolded. The need for confession is extremely important and what is said is also important.
Face Time Again, I am a firm believer in this regard. Face time is NOT necessarily being the center of the situation either. Players with longevity though are consistently shown in some regard to the activity going on. They may not even say much but somehow their presence is integral in some aspect.
Confession and face time go hand and hand quite a lot but they don't necessarily HAVE to go together. In conjunction with that, WHAT the confessionals are about are important also. Those discussing their journey in the game and what it is doing for them are usually those characters who last awhile but are shown due to personal quests Therefore, that does not mean they will win but are people who Mark Burnett is showing some facet of "growth" if you will (this is different from highlighting "characters" based on a certain characteristic)

Strategy There is always some controversey about strategy and what success it has when revealed. We knew immediately Greg's whole plan laid out to us would NOT succeed whereas we were taken step by step by people like Richard and Brian and they did succeed. There is a difference though. Greg laid the whole plan from beginning to end to us practically which is dangerous in the Mark Burnett editing world since Gregg did not leave room for error. He stated his case and that was it whereas we saw Richard and Brian discuss their strategy more on a step by step basis and adjustments were made due to balls going into left field.
Alliances Ahhh, the alliances and what they tell us. There is always a wrench thrown into it one way or another. Does this mean that intended final two partners don't get there? No, not necessarily. But the assumption of contestants that THEIR final four or three or five is amusing to watch fail. I do attempt to watch who says what, how early and with regard to whom. Something usually goes wrong
The first show is extremely important in establishing some of these clues also encompassing the theme and symbolism. By no means is this a list etched in stone and some may feel the way they view the editing is different which is why we always have such wonderful discussions. It is so hard to put personal preferences aside (as we also discussed last season with respect to the question of who deserves to win and who we want to win) but this show never fails to amaze me in the reaction to the players it garners from the audience.
I can't wait to admire the hero, boo the villian, and root for the underdog and then probably raise my eyebrow that they just can't be the winner

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Whole Lotta Rosie 104 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
08-27-05, 05:12 AM (EST)

14. "RE: Tribes and Players: Initial Observations"

VS I think you have nailed down the primary editing patterns. I don’t try to understand half of what you do, I just enjoy.
I would like to add two more.
First is Applejack’s musical editing theory. This was brought out last year, and I do think that it helps to identify characters versus the serious game players. Dark or lighthearted theme music is more identified with the characters versus the more straightforward music or, lack there, of the longer-term characters.
This is the link from last year. I hope this analysis continues.
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/5676.shtml#199
The second is KOB’s John Nash theory. The theory is that the players playing the game best, according to his uncooperative game theory (UGT), have the best chance of winning. KOB had a great link to the summary of UGT but it is now a dead link and I could not find the original article. However in summary:
UGT is based on the concept the players will play the game to maximize their longevity in the game. This can occur in several ways. If a player is in a tribe with two potential leaders (D-Tribe), or a tribe with more than three leaders (M-Tribe) it is there best long-term interest to be a follower and allow the leaders to be picked of one by one.
If a player is in a tribe full of followers (N-Tribe), it is in the best interest to be the leader.
If there are no leaders in a tribe of followers the tribe is a (L-Tribe), or no leader.
If you are a leader in a N-Tribe or a follower in a D-Tribe or M-Tribe you have the best chance of winning. If you are in a L-Tribe you are pretty much SOL.
Looking at the last two seasons, when KOB first identified the concept to me, plus the first two (that have been running on OLN), I am beginning to think that this is used as an editing technique, in two phases. The first is early game play and the second is (redundantly) secondary game play. The top player’s/winner’s game play tends to change to fit the circumstance. This goes to VS’s “progression of a character”.
On caveat, this is based on limited samples and heavily reliant on hindsight.
Borneo
Tagi is often considered to be the classic N-Tribe but in reality Rich did not vote against either of the first two bootees. It wasn’t until he seized control of the alliance did Tagi become a N-Tribe. Prior to the alliance his comments were more of the “I will lay back” variety, after the alliance he moved to the “I control the game”. This goes back to VS’s “progression of the character”, but purely in the strategic sense.
In contrast, the Pagong tribe has been historically classified as an L-Tribe, but they actually worked fairly well together, and although I have been never sure of their leader, I do think there was one. If one of the Pagong had won, MB and numerous editing options.
Outback
Ogakor was initially edited as an M-Tribe with Tina/Keith and Jerri/Amber as the power couples. Prior to Mitchell’s boot Tina was a non-entity. Her confessional, when Mitchell was eliminated was compelling. It was not her idea; it was Keith and Coby’s power play. In a M-Tribe, leaders are bad, but followers are good. Once Mitchell was gone, and the tribes merged, the tribe became a N-Tribe and the contestants, partially Amber, began commenting that Tina was the power player. From an editing perspective Tina shifted from a follower in an M-Tribe to a leader in a N-Tribe. IMHO, it was Keith who was the leader, not Tina. But since Tina won, she received the proper edit.
In contrast, the editing of the Kucha tribe was that of a L-Tribe or an M-Tribe. However, I have difficulty believing this was not a N-Tribe with Mike in the lead. MB almost seemed to fish for quotes that Mike was not the actual leader of this tribe. Should a Kucha member have won, I believe the editing would have been completely different.
Vanuatu
KOB nailed this very early. Chris was the leader of the male N-Tribe. However once the merge/man killing happened, he became a follower. There were at least two other leaders on the board in Scout/Twila and Ami. When the Scout/Twila/Chris/Eliza alliance came to the forefront, whose idea was it? From an editing perspective it definitely was not Chris, it was Twila/Scout. I have difficulty believing in all the tape they have, that somehow Chris did not take credit for the move. Chris went from a leader in a N-Tribe to a follower in a M-Tribe. This is perfect game play according to Nash.
At the time KOB’s analysis stated that the female tribe was considered to be an L-Tribe. I agree this was true from an editing perspective, but it reality I think Amy had a great deal of control over the tribe. Should Amy have won the editing could have easily been changed to that of a N-Tribe.
Palau
When I first looked at this season I thought that Koror had too many leaders and Ulong had very few. But from an editing perspective Koror was a perfect N-Tribe, if only for the reason that Ulong was the perfect L-Tribe. Yes, Greg, Ian, Tom, Coby, Caryn, etal, were all potential leaders, but from an editing perspective these issues were never overtly raised in the early episodes. Once Ulong was eliminated the only real conflict, Gregg/Jenn vs. Ian/Tom was resolved with Ian as the instigator. Tom shifted from leader to follower. Again, MB could have easily edited Tom as the leader of this coup, but he didn’t.
Again, hindsight is 20/20. It is easy to spot trends once they have happened. I am, however, beginning to believe that MB edits game play in addition to the other facets of his edits.
KOB has always had a much better handle on this than I, but I though I would throw it out.

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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
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08-27-05, 06:50 AM (EST)

15. "RE: Tribes and Players: Initial Observations"

Thanks for bringing up Nash early this season Rosie, I promise to have another analysis on this topic in the very near future once we have seen more of our S11 characters.
I agree with most of what you say, but they key thing to remember in using the UTG is that a "leader" does not have to be and is not always the leader of the tribe. In the world of Survivor the leader is the person (or persons) who can get a group of people together for a vote. They have the personality, power, and charisma of somebody who is in the top spot of a voting bloc. Some leaders will bide their time to emerge when they believe that they can overthrow the current "governement".
Take Gregg from Palau. He had the charisma, he had the strength to lead, and he was ready to make his charge and get the votes necessary to oust Tom. The problem is he slipped and gave away his hand a bit early and Tom (Who is a fantastic player) read this and made his own counter charge to manipulate the people who had been following him to stay loyal and vote with him.
Katie was another person who recognized very early on that in her tribe she was surrounded by strong leaders/leader candidates. She knew (and I have spoken to her since the season ended and she did confirm for me that prior to the game she had studied Nash and so she knew this was her only way to play the game.) that her only play would be as a follower. She followed Tom as the leader and was ready to jump ship and move on with Gregg, but she was involved in the big error of tipping this too soon so it back fired and didn't work.
In the reunion show it was brought out that indeed Tom had studied some Nash himself. Jeff and he had the conversation where Jeff pointed out "You knew that Gregg's best move was to make a move when it got down to 5 players so you got rid of him at 6". That was a spot on assessment.
This is also why Pagong was considered an L tribe, because even though in challenges and around camp they did have leaders in Greg and Gretchen (and to a smaller extent Joel), they never had a leader in the game play aspect, and that is what Nash is all about when it comes to Survivor and trying to identify who will have the best chance to win.
And speaking of making adjustments to the players surroundings (which everybody has got to do in order to succeed, adapt or you are out.) There has only been one winner that has withstood a swap where they were actually switched to another tribe, all the other players who have been switched have not won. That is Vecepia. I can't wait to watch Season 4 over again to watch her specifically. She was the perfect follower and latched onto leader in power after leader in power until it was time for her to do it on her own and then she showed true snake like qualities by brokering the deal with Kathy and then cutting a deal with Neleh right afterward.
In a nutshell Nash theory can be summed up as:
If all players make their best move then that levels out the playing field and all things being equal (and nobody makes a mistake) if a tribe has one leader, the leader has the best chance to win because they dictate the vote. If a tribe has more than one leader, then the advantage goes to the follower as the leaders make a play to pick each other off.
When I made my pick of Chris in Vanuatu to have the best shot to win it all based on the Nash theory, it was also because of his early editing as well, there is no question about that. He had been edited to say things like "I started playing from the minute I hit the beach" and "Oh great an all male tribe, I can outwit men a hell of a lot easier than I can a bunch of women. Women are thick as thieves." He also made the quote "This game isn't about outbalancing somebody, it's about outwitting and outplaying them." But I also watched each person closely and though Sarge was edited to be the Lopevi leader, I picked up on the fact early that Chris was the one that was making the calls when it came to their 5 way alliance. This is what we need to watch out for when trying to apply Nash. Sarge was a strong tribal leader, but the mental leader, the one who steered the voting, that was Chris.
I am looking forward to this season and have added a new dimension in trying to get to know these players. If you have a chance, check out the Signs of Survival thread, even if you aren't interested in astrology, this thread has alot of insight to the players and the way they might be inclined toward each other.

S11 PTB is coming!!!!! MAKE SOME SUGGESTIONS PLEASE

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Whole Lotta Rosie 104 desperate attention whore postings
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08-27-05, 02:32 PM (EST)

16. "RE: Tribes and Players: Initial Observations"

LAST EDITED ON 08-27-05 AT 02:42 PM (EST)
KOB,
Nice job, you really have such a great handle on this topic.
Yes, Yes, Yes, the leader does not have to by the “leader” of the tribe. I forgot to put this in, and you are 100% correct. Chris may not have had the charisma to be leader, Sarge did, but he was able to influence the charismatic leader. Under Nash this makes Chris the leader.
You raise an excellent point about last season. I really felt there were some great game players last season and Gregg was a definite challenge to Tom, and Katie actually played a very good game. However, IMO the tribe was initially edited as a N-Tribe not a M-Tribe. In past seasons with dominate tribes; we have seen edits of wanting to throw challenges to remove people or more conflict among the major players (leaders). I just don’t think this was the case in Palau.
You are correct with Pagong. When I re-watched the first season the most obvious overall theme was this is game and if you don’t play it as a game you will lose. Pagong, as a tribe, did not understand this. Neither did Kelly for that matter. However, if for some reason the Pagong players had reached their senses at some point and were able to turn the table, MB could have edited the tribe as a N-Tribe. The fact that he didn’t, early, was significant. The same could be said for all four seasons I reviewed.
My only, long belated point, is that from an editing perspective, MB may be giving us an early opportunity to see the game play of the better players in how they react within the tribal dynamic. Through editing MB can make a tribe look like whatever he wants and I think each season he defines each of the tribes in terms of the Nash Equilibrium, whether that is the actual case or not. This allows him to define the advancing players, who are edited as playing the best game within the context of their defined tribe.
I also can’t wait to review season 4, this was definitely one of the more challenging editing seasons.
The Signs of Survival thread is a hoot. When I first looked at it I definitely saw the Nash Equilibrium possibilities.
Keep up the good work KOB, your insights are always excellent!!!
Edited to Clarify

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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
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08-27-05, 02:47 PM (EST)

17. "RE: Tribes and Players: Initial Observations"

LAST EDITED ON 08-27-05 AT 02:47 PM (EST)
Yes, Yes, Yes, the leader does not have to by the “leader” of the tribe. I forgot to put this in, and you are 100% correct. Chris may not have had the charisma to be leader, Sarge did, but he was able to influence the charismatic leader. Under Nash this makes Chris the leader.
But don't get me wrong in regards to Chris. He surely did have charisma and it was that charisma that made him so believable to the others he swayed to vote along his lines. For whatever his reasons were though, I believe it was Chris that just allowed Sarge to be the open and out there leader of the tribe, it wasn't because he himself wasn't built for it, it was all a part of his own manipulations of the group he aligned with.
Do you know what I mean?
And yes, I agree that the editing of the tribes is every bit as significant as is the proper application of the Nash theory itself. Taking Vanuatu at face value we were shown Sarge as the leader, but the editing did also show us the conversation where Chris told Sarge that they couldn't get rid of Rory yet in favor of JP. It is the subtle parts of the game play that we on this thread really must continue to pay attention to.

S11 PTB is coming!!!!! MAKE SOME SUGGESTIONS PLEASE

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
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08-29-05, 08:07 AM (EST)

18. "RE: Tribes and Players: Initial Observations"

Wonderful discussion everyone and of course we can't forget KO's inititation of the Nash discussion and applejack's great start last season with the music. I am looking forward to that input this season and expect a lot of it!
The main thing in confessionals that I am going to key in on in the first episode is what they are saying. A lot can't be discerned until some episodes but there is always something to the confessionals. If one doesn't have a confessional that doesn't mean anything but if one has a confessional and it has nothing to do with incorporating any element of the game, it does not usually bode well as far as winning.
KO thank you for the link regarding astrology. I confine myself to simply the editing but it is very fascinating and look forward to reading more of it.

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DRONES 615 desperate attention whore postings
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08-31-05, 03:42 AM (EST)

19. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

Glad to see you've made it back for another season, and it appears that you're already in midseason form
It's just pure speculation on my part, mostly because their roles have yet to be defined, but the impact of BJ and Steph on this game is going to be significant. They are going to bring a dynamic to the game that has yet to be seen. This is going to bring a whole new set of questions.
Assuming that they are actually playing the game rather than having some sort of ceremonial role.
1. Will they be playing the game the same way?
2. Are they going to take a leadership role?

Remembering from last season that they both approached the
game very differently. Steph was the competitor who defered
to others in regards to leadership. BJ, OTOH, was more of a
leader, although not a very good one. Like Steph, BJ was a
very hard worker.
This is going be a fascinating season. EPMB certainly does now how to keep this game interesting
DRONES

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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09-16-05, 12:41 PM (EST)

20. "Post Ep 1"

LAST EDITED ON 09-16-05 AT 12:43 PM (EST)
Had to bump this thread up front as I just can't wait to get started! Wow, VS is going to have a field day with this show! The first show had me on the edge of my seat as a true test of SURVIVAL! I was literally afraid for some of the "heroes". "Big Trek, Big Trouble, Big Surprise" was an understatement at the very least. I found this ep to be shocking. I found it to be an entirely new level than all previous survivor series first ep's. The physical hardship of it blew me away. I'm an advanced nurse practioner too, and if I'd have been there I would've had the TV crew walkie talk some help for those guys ASAP! They were severely dehydrated and in severe chemical imbalance...they could have DIED out there. Who knows they still could! I think they walked over the grey area, medically speaking!
Buckeye girl started a thread on "Key Quotes" so I won't touch on that. I was shocked at the huge number of confesssionals from everyone, but it was clear to me that Steph and BJ are going to be narrators, I think Margaret is going to be one as well.(She could have been the narrator last night more as BJ was so affected and out.
Early villians: Brandon on Nakum....loved how he asked, "when's the last time that I hiked 11 miles? Never!", and then the camera follows him falling flat on his keister! Then again, talking about BJ, yeah, he was strong, but he's dumb.... Then his snide comments regarding Judd getting out of the boat early upon reaching the beach to their camp, "he's a premature evacuator"....he's coming across as quite synical and intolerant to me.
Jamie on Yaxha: After Steph was introduced, all the girls were crying and happy, well, I wasn't happy, I want her out, how will I win a million dollars with her here?
Gary noted that he doesn't want to be the leader but his paternal feelings are all kicking in as he's out here with a bunch of kids...they did edit in someone asking Gary what he did....
Stephenie noted that the tribe is only as strong as their weakest links in reference to Lydia and Ami....I'd say with such a physical show these two could be in the Pre-merge boot list. But we were shown Lydia accepting Steph with her, "It's because of you that I'm here!", and her genuine warmth toward her, while we were shown Ami nagging Steph and Gary, "are you sure you know where you are going with those things(the compasses).....
One thing that knocked me over was at the Tribal Council when Jiffy said, who will be voted out and he said, the person voted off will be asked to leave the TC immediately and then the Camera was on JIM. The editing of this gave the bootee away!
I really thought the theme of the show was indeed Survival. I find it really exciting and refreshing. I love all of the confessionals that really were all regarding their reaction to the tests.
As always, many critters, with spiders, poisonous snakes, crocodiles, and howler monkeys!
Can't wait to hear everyone's comments, sorry if I jumped the gun!

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Booted 156 desperate attention whore postings
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09-16-05, 01:35 PM (EST)

21. "RE: Post Ep 1"

FP:
Good post. I found something interesting at TDT's site. Under Steph's factors against Steph's boot he has:
"Strong, experienced, and Amy likes her (as does Danni)".
Well, I wonder, maybe that means that Steph and Danni get to spend some time together. Since Steph is supposed to make it further in the game than last time maybe Steph and Danni get to spend some time together and Danni makes it far into the game also.
Another thing I wondered, why did Jim vote for Margaret? My wife and I both said she carried them through those first 2 days. What did we not see that may be important about Margaret?
Boot Ed

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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09-16-05, 02:42 PM (EST)

22. "RE: Post Ep 1"

In the interview with RNO, Jim says:
"The thing with Margaret was that I couldn’t abstain and I couldn’t vote for myself so I wanted to vote for someone randomly and unfortunately she was the one that I chose out of the group. She was one of the strongest players and would be a tough competitor and if I remained would be tough competition."
I wondered about that item on TDT's site. We didn't hear Amy or Danni say anything about Stephenie last night, did we? Maybe it was part of the tip TDT got about Stephenie doing pretty well.

Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

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Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings
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09-16-05, 04:49 PM (EST)

28. "RE: Post Ep 1"

I think during the TV Guide channel preview, Danni and Amy mentioned Stephenie as one of their favorite Survivors. I was trying to find a transcript of it to double check, but had no luck.

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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings
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09-18-05, 05:17 AM (EST)

39. "RE: Post Ep 1"

Found it again...
You were right corvis, these are from the TVGuide promo...
Amy: "Well I really liked Stephenie from the last season. I thought she was tough and sucked it up."
Danni: "Stephenie is my favorite Survivor. I mean, I think everybody loves Stephenie."
Unfortunately, these quotes are all from the early days. No, reason to believe that Danni makes it far because of her association with Stephenie.
What I found funny, even at the time, was that there were no comments made about BJ.
Could this mean an early exit for him?

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Miscreation 48 desperate attention whore postings
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09-16-05, 02:42 PM (EST)

23. "RE: Post Ep 1"

>Another thing I wondered, why did Jim vote for Margaret?
>My wife and I both said she carried them through those
>first 2 days. What did we not see that may be important
>about Margaret?
I posted this on another thread, but it seems to fit here as well, so I just did a copy and paste of my previous answer. Hope that's okay.
I think I understand it, after seeing him on The Early Show. He seemed to be threatened by a strong woman who could take charge of things. He actually was very dismissive of her efforts to help the sick guys. He commmented that without IVs there was nothing that could be done to help them, and that pouring water on their heads was useless. (Paraphrasing here, but that's the gist of it.) The tone of his voice, and his body language indicated that he thought very little of her efforts.
So, if there are no IVs available then why bother giving them water or pouring it on them? Huh? Is he a total idiot? Does he not understand the concept of re-hydrating? Of course an IV would be better, but Margaret was working with what she had. He's an a$$, and I'm glad he's gone.
(Ooops, I guess that last little bit should be on bashers.)

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
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09-16-05, 03:08 PM (EST)

26. "RE: Post Ep 1"

I’ve already dug in to begin the new season and am anxiously awaiting everyone’s thoughts and analysis.
FP and booted - I am so glad you chimed in early as I get so much more from reading others' commentary!
Let me start off by saying this is an unusual beginning for this series and the waters were a little muddied because of it. We began this season with an immediate challenge where usually we receive immediate introductory confessionals by the contestants. In addition, we have the return of Bobby Jon and Stephenie and it is a foregone conclusion that a majority of the episode (and the season) will revolve around them.
Therefore, I am making a concerted effort to remember that confessionals, face time and those editing tricks of the trade may be skewed somewhat in light of the fact that Mark Burnett can’t not showcase these two.
I am very interested in what people thought of the episode in general and also what “vibe” you received. I would say, based upon early viewing that my immediate thought was that a woman would win this season based upon the overall editing done on the players and the interesting remarks made. I also wanted to see who I felt was made to appear to be an established character and who may have been highlighted simply because of the events at that moment.
The Setting
The Mayan setting is no doubt a beautiful one and it appears that there will be a lot of visuals this season. The animals ran rampant! Monkeys, crocodiles, spiders, snakes, scorpions, ants.......... (I was pleased to see that Mr. Burnett didn’t transport a crab to the location ) Jeff talked of their celestial knowledge along with the unforgiving nature of the area and the suffering and sacrifices and mystery. While the theme is not quite as specific as we have seen in the past, I do see hints of extinction and suffering and survival (FP you mention this as well .
Can we potentially glean from that in light of what transpired that the “male species” becomes extinct? A comment made by Danni had me ponder that perhaps endurance and not necessarily strength may be the underlying theme here In addition, another theme that was palpable was decisions which, of course, is always central to this show. Decision on how to utilize Steph and Bobby; the decision regarding the amount of items, decision on strength vs. strategy and so forth.
The Game
Did Mark Burnett attempt to dare these people to try and get rid of their strength early on in light of last season? He certainly is making the first attempt with an 11 mile trek in a very demanding location. I am glad to see he did provide for them at least The mere fact that he gave them a very physical immunity challenge after an excruciatingly long and physical reward challenge would seem to say that he is not giving any latitude this time. “You signed up, now deal with it and maybe THIS time, you’ll make better decisions”
The Players
Now the fun part!! I think we did an exceptional job in pre-show analysis on how we thought these players may be and the tried and true methodology of the “elder” boot was accurate. This was a complete contradiction to last season where the methodology was getting rid of stronger players. Bobby Jon knew this all too well that despite stronger players being threatening, it could hurt you by getting rid of them.
The Returnees
Bobby Jon
We know Bobby Jon; he is an open book to us. He is kind, he is a team player and extremely hard worker and he is also not going to put the strategic portion of the game first. He didn’t last season and he won’t this season. It is not in his makeup to do so BJ will play the game hard to advance his team and therefore himself but one cannot win a million dollars that way. Let’s also cut to the chase and presume that it is going to be virtually impossible for BJ or Stephenie to win the money (much like the winners of Survivor in the All Star version) To a good amount of these contestants, Stephenie and BJ already won in some degree.
BJ ”I felt like a million dollars at the beginning but I guarantee Ms. Stephenie is over there running things......”
Cindy ”He is not going to quit or disappoint someone”
Danni ”A man is just stronger than a woman is......”
Brandon: “.....tough worker....... little dumb”
BJ at TC ”Not many people get two chances at a million dollars” and.....
BJ to Brandon getting off the boat ”I’m trying, dawg”
Bobby, who tries, tries, tries and just falls short. One would think that in light of his situation, Bobby Jon’s confessionals and discussion would focus on *his* situation; telling us that in light of his being a return player he may need to play the game differently or discuss how they reacted to him and so forth. We didn’t see any of this from BJ himself; only that mention at Tribal Council. This, in my opinion, sums up the story of BJ; he is grateful to be there, will work hard but will not win. He should be thinking about his role here just as much as the others are. In contrast:
Stephenie
Steph’s thought process has not changed either. We immediately hear from her the determination she has but at the same time we hear from her the stage that she is playing on is a wobbly one; she is aware of this and makes us aware she knows this If she were not a returnee, her presence and persona would dictate she will be there for awhile. It is hard to determine however considering who she is.
Brian: ”We got Steph; we’re winning..... we are good to go”
Jamie ”How am I going to win a million dollars with her on my team?”
Steph (Discussing how warm her reception was but....)”Maybe they do just want to get rid of me”
Steph ”Not starting off Guatemala on a losing team” and ”You are only as strong as your weakest link”
Steph ”I’m so glad I’m on a tribe with as much heart and determination as me”
and of course, Bobby’s mention of what he knows she is doing there and “picking up and going”
Again, the difference we see between BJ and Stephenie is Stephenie already showing us her awareness of her vulnerability in terms of the game. Obviously, BJ getting sick was the highlight of his first episode but any confessional he had could have mentioned the game itself It didn’t except for his prior season being “recess” compared to Guatemala. The game should have been part of his edit
While the women on BOTH tribes really showed their liking to both BJ and Steph the women of Nakum appeared more savvy (shot of Danni after BJ made his comment about the money; Brooke’s suggestion to Danni, Brandon and Judd that BJ was the sickest, etc.) than the women of Yaxha who appeared completely enamored of Stephenie (Lydia completely glued to Steph’s side, Morgan just thrilled as well as Brianna and even Brian just “loves” her)
If Stephenie keeps the women close to her chest, she has a nice “block” BJ, unfortunately may not fare as well...............
The New Players
Nakum
Nakum for obvious reasons got A LOT of focus which often becomes confusing in terms of character longevity. Sometimes it is hard to discern if someone is getting a lot of time because of their progress in the game or because of the storyline
A perfect example is Margaret so let’s begin with her. As Jeff promised, she emerged as the star in episode one but let’s not forget why. There was no choice but to highlight her because she attended to every sick person there Now Margaret may NOT be a long term character but she was relevant to the events at Nakum and therefore HAD to be shown a lot With that said, this does not suggest that she ISN’T a long term player; we need to see what happens with her when the events do not dictate that she is front and center With that, my early feelings on Margaret were positive and at this time, I still maintain them.
Margaret: “It was a little hard to figure out a strategy at the spur of the moment....” (This was a good comment as it is indicative that she is thinking about the game)
Margaret: ”Be slow, but hard” (while they were rowing the boat)
Margaret: ”This is all about who can help carry the team far”
Cindy: ”Here comes Margaret, nurse lady and talked him through it”
Jeff P. ”Margaret took one in the gut”
And of course, both Blake and BJ expressed gratitude towards her.
Again, Margaret should fare well as already discussed even before the show started just because “moms” tend to do alright and on this tribe of younger people, caretaking and a calm manner is a benefit. It remains to be seen, however, whether we have Gretchen or Tina here The first episode for Margaret is not much help as she would have been highlighted regardless of her ultimate progression but in light of the fact that it appears that the themes could be suggestive of a woman winning, she has as good of shot as any.
Blake Like Margaret, he was visually seen throughout but because he was integral to the story at Nakum. His illness and injury were a main part of Nakum as with Bobby Jon. However I was not optimistic about Blake pre-show and my thoughts remain the same. My thoughts are that if Blake were to last a period of time in this game, we would have been shown more by him other than his physical issues.
It is fair to assume that anyone who is not healthy is a contender to be booted; we have already determined long ago that this is a factor in a boot as evidenced by prior seasons so for that alone, Blake may not have any longevity. The fact that Blake was really only there in terms of his illness may be highly suggestive that he is an early casualty or I feel there may have been more investment in Blake in spite of his physical condition Could we have seen from him a confessional prior to TC about his state of mind going into TC? Yes, which is why sometimes a rose may be a rose.
And the others.............
The “others” were actually more important to me because the story at Nakum did not encompass them as a main character; therefore what I saw with them was more interesting
Danni Danni was EXTREMELY visible. At Tribal Council alone, there were many shots to her after someone spoke; while we did not hear from her MORE than others, her presence was notable in my opinion.
”A man is just stronger than a woman is” (re: getting BJ on their tribe) yet.....
”....surprised at the guys but women tend to have a little more endurance but the guys carried a lot of the load in the beginning” (then men) at TC
Aside from the above which happened in the beginning and end, we didn’t hear much from Danni but we saw quite a bit of her and if the themes are what they appear, Danni’s two confessionals are extremely relevant in terms of the game
Handling herself very diplomatically at TC with plenty of reactionary shots from her regarding others, Danni’s presence was there in my opinion.
Cindy Cindy got quite a lot of confessional airtime from what I can recall which doesn’t necessarily mean anything in the first episode. I did pay attention to WHAT she said as opposed to how many times she was shown from the time she expressed that she was happy about Bobby because he won’t quit on them......
Cindy: ”If we lose them (the men), it’s not even worth having all this”
Cindy: ”We came out of the jungle before the other tribe but we wanted to get them off our tails. Felt like Seabiscuit who runs when he sees the competition; thought I couldn’t move but I ran.....”
Cindy was certainly seen and heard from quite a bit but again, it is hard to discern whether or not that suggests any longevity. While her Seabiscuit comment was certainly one that may make an eyebrow raise (little engine that could) I’m not quite convinced and I still maintain that her problem will lie in the social aspect/strategic aspect of the game.
If there is a female counterpart to Bobby Jon, Cindy may fit that bill and probably suffer the same fate for the same reasons
Brooke I had some very positive thoughts pre show about Brooke and I’m still thinking this way. This girl is playing the game. Her main issue will be of coming on too strong and if she handles it delicately she can do quite well.
Brooke in response to Judd’s question about the 11 mile hike ”oh yeah, I felt alright”
Brooke: ”None of us deserve to go but the women shouldn’t”
Brooke talking to Danni, Judd and Brandon: ”Bobby Jon was sick, he was the worst off”
and when discussing that the women fared somewhat better she made sure to say Brandon hadn’t stopped yet (aware that she needs to stroke the ego to buffer her comment)
Brooke is already playing this game; she has immediately honed in her thought process and has put it out there albiet in a subtle manner. I think it appears pretty evident that she has already viewed the arrival of Bobby as a threat to her game as note how she mentioned Bobby over Blake or Jim........ She has also already shown established in a potential four alliance with Judd, Danni and Brandon?
Brandon Brandon definitely came to us in narrator form and one that may stir the pot though I think we will enjoy it and not loathe it. There is difference between someone narrating events that they are directly involved with (i.e. Margaret) and those who are narrating based on what they are observing (i.e. Brandon)
Brandon: about BJ “ Supposedly a tough worker but kinda little dumb”
Brandon:”Last time I hiked 11 miles was never...... but I was like Yee Ha” (and then we see the comical moment of him falling)
Brandon:”Judd had a premature evacuation”
Brandon:”I don’t know what is going to happen with all these broken down crippled guys..... have doubts these people will even make it”
and Brooke again: ”Brandon hasn’t stopped yet”
I had liked Brandon pre-show and I still feel he is here for the duration; like Brooke, there is an angle to him that he is aware of Bobby Jon and he is observing and discussing events around him. Naturally a good “character” will get more face time but I sense there is more down the pike with Brandon (my first post mistakenly stated I was concerned about Brandon, Jim and Cindy when I meant to put Blake, Jim and Cindy regarding any confusion )
Judd obviously was predetermined to be a “character” and that did not change whatsoever. Judd reminded me a bit of Chris UNTIL the TC and that was my only “caution Judd, caution” While Chris was self deprecating in his failure, Judd came off defensive; to the extent it was shown was for a reason which may be what happens with him ultimately and why he ends up leaving at some point. However there was a lot revolving around him and not just directly from him and I see him as a very strong player out there.
Judd: ”Here I come baby, coming full force at ya!”
Judd:”When I saw the water, I knew there was a light at the end of the tunnel”
And the shot of Judd throwing down the heavy load of palm fronds immediately after Margaret stated that this was all about who can carry the team far.
Judd at TC:”I was only on my back for an hour, I puked and I got up, I feel great, I’m ready to do a back flip” (I did note another shot of Danni after this comment of his only being down for an hour)
Judd will certainly be prevalent throughout and in light of the condition of the other two (Blake and Bobby) he will certainly be necessary as well as Brandon. However, if we determine that women will ultimately prevail then Judd will be stopped by them at some point. At this time though, Judd appears to reflect someone we will see for some time.
At this point, ASIDE from what transpired with the injuries, Brandon, Judd, Danni and Brooke may be the force to contend with. We note that Cindy and Margaret were not around when they were discussing the status of the tribe which may signify this as a four person alliance by sight though not by word.....
Despite editing twists and misdirection, sometimes it is best to go with what seems to be as is. Blake is sick and Blake was not shown to us really in any way other than his condition, therefore I don’t necessarily believe that this is anything but that I am also not quite positive about Cindy’s length of stay or Bobby’s With Margaret it will become more telling when she isn’t directly involved with the situation at camp as her face time dictated those events.
Yaxha Yaxha being essentially healthy wasn’t fleshed out as much as Nakum but we were still able to partially see where some of the players were coming from. Some are still a mystery and until the next episode it may be unfair to assume they are automatically short term players. It is suggestive of that however so failing to mention it would be remiss. However, I do question if the potential winner comes from Nakum since we saw quite a lot of all of them as opposed to Yaxha.
Brianna There was not much of Brianna after her exuberance of seeing Stephenie. She seems pleasant enough but I would normally suspect that I’d feel her presence more if there is any real long term situation with her. We may have the Darrah scenario but I would hazard a guess to say that she will not win this season.
Brianna: ”Couldn’t help but cry, she was such an inspiration” (about Steph) is not exactly indicative of someone who is thinking in terms of the game; I would sooner expect her to tell us that she was glad to see her but how it would affect her game. I would imagine that she will be firmly planted near Stephenie but I see her going sooner rather than later.
Amy Obviously when there is a winning tribe, we don’t hear as much and I suspect the minute this tribe loses, Amy will be heard from A LOT. Aside from the brief mention of sighting the monkey in the tree (which is probably as loud as she can be) and Stephenie’s comment about Amy lagging behind and a quick mention to Gary and Stephenie during the walk we heard practically nothing from as well. The question I ask here is that Amy no doubt is vocal yet we did not really see her as much as, at least, I expected, which means that it was edited out as not relevant; do we question then that Amy won’t be around long enough to put any of it in?
Morgan While Morgan was not “overtly” showcased, I personally “felt” her presence more than the above two women. Like Danni, she seemed to me shown visually quite a bit with some key commentary as opposed to confessionals
Morgan: ”Can we move faster guys, we have to catch up”
Morgan::”We leave the winners and we are bummed....”
In the same token, we were also shown that she wanted to stop for the night as well....
Morgan may prove to be an interesting member this season, ironically my pre show thoughts were not clear on her based on what I read and I’m still contemplating her role this season. I do think there is potential here and she may do quite well; I think that either she and Steph may be quite a force or a power struggle with them.
Lydia Ah, Lydia, cute woman isn’t she? The adoration she had for Stephenie was probably the only thing that stood out along with her lagging behind which Steph made note of but Stephenie worked with her to help her along hence the comment that you are only as strong as your weakest member.
I did find it interesting to see that while Lydia slowed them down she certainly appeared to be the one who was forging them ahead upon arrival at the ruins May be an incidental situation but I found it curious especially after Jeff indicated there was still spring in your step
Rafe A nice even edit came out of Rafe. He maintained quite a bit of face time and discussed the game (an added bonus)
Rafe: ”The leader always get freaking voted out first. It was clear that Gary was the leader........”
Rafe: All we had left was Yaxha spirit; .........giving it everything we have”
My thoughts with Rafe are the same but like what Jeff stated: ”Close gets you nothing” I’m not entirely sure this isn’t prophetic with Rafe but I do feel there is substantial longevity with Rafe
Brian Brian gave off a vibration that was not positive and while we have those with the character editing of “villain” I’m not so sure how far he is going to get with it. Brian did not let us know with a nudge and wink of he is playing the game; he was mainly extolling his virtues or giving off love about Stephenie.
Brian: ”I’m in love with Stephenie, we got her, we’re winning; good to go”
Brian:”I wanted to get a move because I knew the other would be going, people were cranky but they knew I was right”
Brian no doubt will be someone we hear from a lot but we already caught a glimmer immediately of his arrogance but it was not coupled with anything else. I’m sure there will be more coming from him but in terms of who else is on this tribe, I don’t see him faring as well.
Gary Gary was fleshed out a lot by others and himself. While it was made to seem that he needs to be worried already, I think this may be a good storyline for him which may last some time. Obviously editing rules have wrenches but I do not feel that we would have this kind of investment if he isn’t there for a bit.
Gary ”I don’t think anyone needs to know that (re: his real name) if someone recognizes me I”ll say it isn’t me”
Gary: ”I’ve made some bad decisions but I was the one with the compass. The young people..... I don’t want to be the leader but my paternal instincts will kick in with these kids”
Stephenie: ”Gary and I were the navigators.........”
Rafe’s comment above about Gary clearly being the leader (but Stephenie wasn’t??)
Despite that Gary was seen and heard from (from others and himself) he was still somewhat “low key” as opposed to the overt leader we see. Gary has the awareness of the game and his role and what is going on and that certainly speaks well in terms of his standing though as most long term players make us aware that they are aware of the game. He needs to tread carefully in this role and he seems to know this.
Jamie I liked Jamie; I found him intriguing and I sense something coming down the pike with him but he needs to tread carefully as there appears to be a suggestion that he will get himself in trouble.
Jamie: ”The girls are crying because she (Steph) is their hero; I didn’t shed a tear; how am I gonna win a million now that she’s here”
Jamie:”I’ll build you the house of your dreams” (to Steph when she was instructing on the hut)
Other than those two comments, we didn’t see much else of Jamie but I noticed him. He, much like Brandon and Brooke have let us know that Steph and Bobby are not celebrity visitors, they are THE competition. Again, strategy talk is usually a good thing especially if one does not hear much else. Mark Burnett made a point of telling us that JAMIE is noticing the situation even if EVERYONE else commented as well. This is what editing is made of.
I see I did it yet again and wrote an insufferably long post on my rambling thoughts.
Incidentals:
The makings of a potential four person alliance with Brooke, Danni, Judd and Brandon
Bobby hitting himself in the face and the slow walking cutting to Stephenie jumping up and down at IC No longer working together to the end
Lydia potentially being shielded by Stephenie perhaps?
Stephenie: ”We are going in the right direction, we just need to speed it up”
Margaret about Blake: ”This really took him down a couple of notches”
Jeff: ”The dilemma you have is giving it your all without destroying yourselves in the process”

I can’t wait to hear from everyone else. Since this thread mainly devotes itself to thinking long term as opposed to “next boot scenario” I think at this juncture we may see quite a bit more from Brooke, Brandon, Judd and Danni. Margaret will be easier to determine once she is not directly involved with the events. My thoughts on Blake are not good as I truly believe we would have seen more from him and his perspective despite his illness if he were to be there for any length of time As far as Cindy, she seems to be a hard worker, kind and caring but not a game player and may be on the outside looking in. I also think Bobby is not going to fare as well as Stephenie in light of who he has on his tribe.
Gary seems to have story ahead for him and Stephenie appears to have the makings of a longer story than perhaps she should get in light of who she is. Morgan and Jamie appear to have another layer that may unfold Rafe is situated seemingly as a nice long term character. Amy I have strong doubts about as well as Brian and Lydia may outlast a couple of players if only by virtue that she is pleasant and clearly seems to have attached herself to Stephenie. I don’t see much in the way of Brianna At this point, Amy doesn’t seem to have any jumpstart to go anywhere with Brianna not too far behind

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kingfish 20752 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
09-16-05, 04:26 PM (EST)

27. "RE: Post Ep 1"

Very interesting and thought provoking, as usual. The in-your-face edit direction is that Blake is the next to go, if N loses IC.
But your quote of Jamie:
"The girls are crying because she (Steph) is their hero; I didn’t shed a tear; how am I gonna win a million now that she’s here".
Struck me as ominous for Jamie's longevity. I actually kinda hope so, because that would mean that the editing is as sneaky (clever) as ever.

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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
09-16-05, 02:43 PM (EST)

24. "Emy's thoughts on Ep 1"

LAST EDITED ON 09-17-05 AT 10:41 AM (EST)
I have a bunch of stuff that I will share with you all over the weekend!!! This is my home this season in Spoilers!!
But FP I wanted to touch on one thing you said:
Early villians: Brandon on Nakum....loved how he asked, "when's the last time that I hiked 11 miles? Never!", and then the camera follows him falling flat on his keister! Then again, talking about BJ, yeah, he was strong, but he's dumb.... Then his snide comments regarding Judd getting out of the boat early upon reaching the beach to their camp, "he's a premature evacuator"....he's coming across as quite synical and intolerant to me.

I don't see him as a villain per se, but if so, like Rob C (who I didn't see as a villain, rather as a playa) and not JFP. He's this season's jokester too. He reminded me of James, but he's funnier and cuter. I see him as a behind the scenes guru like Chris/Rob C. I see him going far...unless, as the only Nakum guy that hasn't puked his guts out, he becomes the BJ of Guatemala ( I called him that last nite) and others see him as too strong and they boot him around merge time.
As for the quote about Judd..I don't think it was cynical or intolerant...I think it was just plain funny The more interesting question for me is, why did EPMB put that quote in, for laughs only, or also because it's true and Judd is an early boot? he evacuates the show early? I could see Judd being to big for his britches and people getting sick of it pretty quickly. Also he was in the canoe when the 4 younguns (Brandon, Judd, Danni and ?Brooke?--I can't keep the young women straight) were strategizing...I don't see this foursome as a whole surviving to the merge and I would think Judd is the first of these 4 to go. With Margaret, BJ, Blake and Cindy on the other side...things will be interesting at Nakum. Although Blake is as good as gone, he's the puking Jeff Wilson of Guatemala. BUT OH MY GOD he is HOT, even better looking than BJ!! Who I thought was a bit off even at beginning, I like him skinnier and scruffier looking!!
Be back with lots more over weekend!!

I'm Back!! Sorry Loo, no "spoilers" in the Snewser sense of the word, only possible Veruca Salt "spoilers" based on editing, etc.
Veruca, boy I missed you!! I love your posts!! you stole some of my answers, but I'm going to put them down here anyway
Next, I hope Corvis provides a confessinal analysis here or on his SurvivorThoughts from Iowa website, although after this week, with 52 confessionals (i counted, I could be off by 1 or 2), he has his work cut out for him. I tried to do a rough analysis, but I like how Corvis breaks down the type of confessional. I'll go searching for it later!!
I really am not that good at looking at "themes" of the shows, what music is playing and what animals are shown and when, but I think Veruca et al. is correct that endurance will be a theme in S11. I also think at this point, if I had to take an educated guess, a woman will win this time, based on the theme and the editing in Ep. 1.
Note, I did like the shot of the ants marching with the "big" green leaves shown during the hike..next week it looks like Gary is eating ants and Steph won't...so ants may be a theme...which fits in with marching/endurance being able to make it...
That's about all I have on themes, so, let's get to what I love to talk about...THE SURVIVORS...After watching ep. 1, I tried to put each of them into PLAYA/NON PLAYA categories with a few ? marks on some
We'll start with:
YAXHA
The Rupertization of Steph
Ok, I was already tired of her by the end of Palau and after ep. 1, she is now the female Rupert to me. EPMB is turning Steph into some demigod like he did w/ Rupert and Steph is acting as "entitled" as Rupert ever did. Their Survivor journies are similar--being widely popular in their season but missing the mark with early jury boot (Rupert 8 and Steph 7) in their first appearance with an immediated "capitalization" of their celebrity in another shot at the game.
I agree with VS that she remains a playa and is better at playing the game than Rupert was and BJ will ever be, but she is starting to believe her hype too much. Her confessionals (9-the most of anyone Margaret had 8) were filled with her own talk of how dedicated and "great" she is and she even said in her first confessional , "maybe they'll (yaxha) see me as too threatening and not as "spectacular" as they thought I would have been and just get rid of me."
But if she insulates herself with the women and Brian/Rafe who really seem to like her, she'll be able to last a while and will most likely get to the jury...she will probably however, end up where Rupert did in Allstars because people will be worried that she is "too popular" and will win the jury vote.. I see her as anywhere from F8 to F3.
Def. a Playa
Brian
Ok, I haven't figured out this guy, but he is a playa...and I think he wants to be a leader, but will he be able to come off as anything but arrogant?? He's keeping his ivy league status a secret (like Gary is his name and prior career) so as to not ruffle feathers, but I think his personality and narcissistic ("they know I'm right") qualities will just come through. Remember, if you play this game for more than a few eps., your "true self" will come out most times. If the rumor is true that there is a major to-do boot and it's Brian, I can't wait to see it!!
Def. a Playa
Rafe
~~Ian~~ Rafe is such a sweet boy!! I love him. He is a Playa and had strategy confessionals about the leader being voted off early. He will definitely take a back seat in Yaxha (which is imho a D or M tribe in Nash theory--more on that later) and, in doing so, will go pretty far. But I see him as not the winner and I expect he will get an Ian edit. During Jiffy's quote about CLOSE gets you NOTHING in Survivor (speaking to Yaxha when they lost the Reward hike challenge) they showed Rafe with a bit of a weary smile. I see him in the F4 but not winning it (It's Ian all over again for me!!!)
Def. a playa
Jamie
The jury is still out for me on him. He could be another Rob M. who I don't particularly like, but he did play an awesome game in A$$ or he could be Robb Z and I just want to smack him and leaves because people just can't stand him any more. His one confessional was a strategy one about not wanting Steph on his team bc he couldn't win the $1 million but he was shown as lazy when making the shelter and I don't think he has the "Yaxha spirit" that Rafe was going on and on about . He's a bit of a Playa but will he end up like Rob M in S4??
A playa but how far??
Gary
~~Sarge~~ Gary will become the figurehead leader of Yaxha as he even acknowledges in one of his 2 confessionals. He is hiding his former NFL QB status a secret (15 yrs ago I was in NFL for 11 years?? did he stop playing 15 yrs ago? or 4 years ago??--so does he not have a landscaping business and why not, does he live off of his signing bonuses now??? --although I don't think he'll be recognized--who did he play for anyway??) He also talked about the young v. old dichotomy in his leadership confessional and how he will become a "father" to them. Is this the start of a division on Yaxha based on age--probably.. He specifically mentioned Morgan, Brianna, Steph, Jamie and Brian ...so that leaves Lydia Gary Amy and Rafe on the other side. What Rafe and Steph do will be important to Gary's survival. But I see him going no farther than early jury because of his strength and outwardly leadership--Yaxha is a D or M tribe remember!
Playa, no, more like a Sarge (not Tom) leader...
Morgan
I'm not sure about her...she had 2 confessionals only about non strategy matters...about the reward challenge and losing it. I need some more fodder to chew on about making my decision on Morgan..right now she is a ? could she be the Jenn who makes it final 4-5 maybe (it's her or Brooke imho)
Playa--maybe
Amy
Nowhere in ep. 1 except for talking about the monkeys sounding like the movie Predator. She was edited as a weak link of Yaxha by Steph. I do not think she will become another Twila, rather more likely never see anywhere near the jury. If Yaxha splits on age, she will be more expendable earlier than Gary or Rafe and she wasn't shown doting on Steph like Lydia who may skate through on that alone. I see her as an early boot or even the first boot when Yaxha shows up at TC.
Not a Playa
Lydia
She also was shown as a weak link by Steph but Steph needs her to insulate her from Jamie like ideas of getting rid of her quick...so I see her lasting a while just for the reason that others need to go more.
Not a playa.
Brianna
Who? She better show up soon or she is out. I doubt she is the Jenn of this season--I give that distinction to either Morgan or Brooke.
Def. not a Playa.
NAKUM or better known as PUKUM
Margaret
I really like her. She has been compared to Tina Wesson which is reasonable, but I see her as more caring than Tina was seen, at least after Ep. 1..although that could be bc she was a nurse doing triage in the camp. However, in her 8 confessionals she is also heard talking about strategy (and the lack thereof because of all the puke). I see her going very far, a potential winner. I have her as my winner in PTTE.
Def. a Playa
Brandon
He is the only non puking male on Nakum and that makes him safe until around the merge imho. He had confessionals concerning strategy and he is this season's JOKESTER. Like I said above, I see him as a Rob C/Chris behind the scenes puppet master. He was a part of the Canoe 4 Alliance with Brooke, Danni and Judd but did not say a word..he didn't have to yet, they knew it was one of the sick boys going. He will be much more instrumental in the boots later on.
Def. a Playa
Brooke
She is the Morgan for me on Nakum. She was seen as the catalyst for the Canoe 4 and was talking about BJ being the sickest. And she had a confessional about endurance and women being more able to do so..Right now if I had to pick btw Brooke or Morgan as being this year's F4/5 Sweetheart, I'd have to pick Brooke just bc of that confessional.
Prob. a Playa
Judd
Well, he's a brash one. He pukes his guts out, sloshes around in the mud (I think that does not bode well for him) but can do back flips at TC. I see him wearing on the nerves of others at Nakum that might lead him to early exit.
Maybe a Playa
Danni
I really am not sure about her. But I agree with VS, she was a focus of Ep. 1 and we know she's there. The only confessional she had though was about men being stronger and BJ being eye candy. Because of the Pukum 4 and being a memeber of the Canoe 4 she is safe for a while. Where was all the tomboyishness tho?
Maybe a Playa
Cindy
I really do not know about her other than I think she will clash with Margaret. (Caryn/Katie anyone?) She seemed a bit snippy and jealous when calling her the nurse who came in to save the day. Margaret may strategize to get rid of her first before the "stronger" puking men if they clash which I see coming.
Prob. not a Playa
BJ
Poor, dumb BJ He really cannot play this game and should not have been given another chance at it. He mentioned a $1 million twice--at TC when he said about 2 chances (what was he thinking?) and when he said he felt like a $1 million....at the beginning. The 2nd chance along with his sickness will lead him to early exit. His confessionals were non strategy as opposed to Steph's. He'll get another nice trip--this time to a beautiful South American country--bc he won't make the jury.
Def. not a Playa
PS He DID gain a lot of weight, didn't he? I loved him as a scruffy skinny thing in Palau...let's hope he makes it a bit further and returns to his Palau cuteness!!
Blake
Don't worry about not winning the $1 million, Blake, you'll get a modeling contract out of this--OH MY, he is the EYE CANDY of S11. But whether he can play the game, we'll never find out, he's the man down in Ep. 2 and he'll probably go before BJ if Pukum has to go to TC again.
Def. not a Playa
Jim
Well he was a dead duck in this ultra-challenge S11.
Def. not a Playa
NASH THEORY
You can read Rosie's and KT's threads above for a description of the theory.
I think Yaxha is a tribe of 2-3 or more leaders so either a D or M tribe and you don't want to be a leader here. I see Gary Steph and Brian as the emerging leaders here. Steph will be able to skate by because of her "Rupertization" and Brianna's and Lydia's undying love for her. Brian and Gary will not be as lucky.
Rafe, Morgan and Lydia will most benefit by being a follower in Yaxha. Jamie will not be able not to rock the boat, imho. Brianna was too non-existent for me to think that she benefits by the Nash theory.
Nakum is more difficult for me to characterize. Because of all the sickness, it may have become a N tribe by default. Therefore, Margaret, as the emerging leader, will benefit. This is interesting....we are comparing Margaret to Tina but Tina won being a follower on an M tribe (Keith Jerri Colby as leaders), can Margaret win it being the leader of an N tribe, like Richard did in S1? (if it indeed Nakum is an N tribe)
The other possible leaders are Brandon and Brooke. However, I don't see Brandon as an out front guy. Brooke seems to be the leader of the Canoe 4 anyway.
I'd like to hear what Rosie, KT and others think re: Nash Theory after ep. 1... I'm just a novice, here

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
09-16-05, 03:02 PM (EST)

25. "RE: Emy's thoughts on Ep 1"

HIYA emy! Thrilled to see you! You may well be right regarding Brandon. There is something about him that rubbed me the wrong way, definately somebody who will rock the boat, and I'll admit, I'm looking forward to it! As for Jamie, Steph also commented over at the CBS website on their video clips that she got bad vibes from Jamie and that he was the laziest at the Yaxha tribe, and something about she didn't think his reasons for playing the game were on the up and up???
One thing I forgot to note that I wanted to was that Rafe had a key quote after they had lost the first challenge and regarding the IC.....something along the lines of the only thing they had was their 'Yaxha Spirit', and that that was good enough! I know how VS loves those spiritual quotes!

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spacey 115 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
09-16-05, 05:33 PM (EST)

29. "RE: Post Ep 1"

Something that really bugged me about the editing last night with BJ were his confessionals. He was almost on deaths door, eyes rolling to the back of his head almost passing out and then they would show him in a confessional and he looked totally different. Like he had been cleaned up. He had a hat on and seemed healthier. They were really out of place as if he was either booted early or had to be taken out of the game because he was too sick to play and they didn't have enough confessionals for him so they added in his thoughts from loser lodge.
Because of this I think he may be the "man down" next episode.

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LookeeLoo 1169 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
09-16-05, 07:20 PM (EST)

32. "Loo's thoughts..."

Totally agree about this season being at a different level Flo Po. Very much enjoyed your insight into the degree of physical danger the men of Nakum were in.
Booted, many had the question of why Jim voted for Margeret. I quite frankly was extremely mad at Jim for doing that. It is interesting to note that there is a story behind that, but that CBS chose NOT to show it. I'm really wondering why as I thought that this was important. The story came from Insiders I think, and it was that they all discussed who Jim should vote out, since he could not vote himself out. They ended up drawing peas or something like that and Margaret's was the odd color.
BR's post #22 quoted from RNO interview, which did not make this clear, or is kind of contradictory. Not sure what to make of that.
Great (and no way too long) analysis VS. I agree with the Nakum conclusions. I think that Jeff's quote at tribal council is the key theme for this season: "The dilemma you have is giving it your all without destroying yourselves in the process." Margaret seems to recognize this, but she may rub BJ the wrong way with this strategy because we all know he give every ounce of himself around camp and does not recognize he needs to pace himself if they are going to win the challenges.
Other things I noticed were that Judd and Cindy took the steps to go vote 2 at a time. Judd, just strided up, but Cindy BOUNDED up the steps. I'm sure they did that to show they were strong. I think that Judd's "walk" will be appreciated by the team because they are in so much need of their men showing strength. I think that Cindy's "bounding walk" may have put a target on her back in the eyes of Danni and Brooke though.
I also found it odd that Lydia was seen lagging in the hike, but out front when they arrived at the camp destination.
Lastly, a comment on Morgan. I'm not sure it was her all the time, but I kept hearing these cheerleading type comments and I think they came from her. Also, she showed great strength in carrying the corn and I thought it was great when she carried AND balance the corn bag on her head without needing to use her hands. Quite dexterous!
And emydi? It almost sounds like you've got some spoiler info? And you are making us wait until the weekend? So, so cruel!
-Loo

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
09-19-05, 11:46 AM (EST)

46. "RE: Loo's thoughts..."

BR's post #22 quoted from RNO interview, which did not make this clear, or is kind of contradictory. Not sure what to make of that.
Loo, I subsequently saw the Insider explanation for the Margaret vote, and to me what Jim said in the RNO interview doesn't contradict it, although I agree he wasn't clear. But in the RNO interview he did say "unfortunately" Margaret was the one he chose, which makes it sound like he didn't arbitrarily decide on her, but that she was chosen via some random method like picking straws.

Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

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Loquatrix 640 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
09-16-05, 06:35 PM (EST)

30. "A few impressions"

Hello again, everyone! Lovely to see so many familiar faces. I always look forward to a new Survivor season just as much for hanging out with you guys again as for seeing the game in play once more.
I haven't had any time at all this season for spoiling. I know nothing about any of the competitors except for what is being shown to me on the TV. I don't know any spoilers that have been discussed, except for Steph and Bobby Jon showing up again, which I had hoped would be in a purely ceremonial role if we had to have losers back at all, but sadly we are stuck with them. What's the betting there'll be an extra mil for one or other of them a la Rupert, at the end of the season? Lamest twist evar, IMO.
Anyway, back to spoiling. My contribution this season will be to provide a synopsis of my impressions as an "average viewer," i.e. seeing only what the hour-long program shows us, whenever I get a chance to type something up. As much as I'd love to spoil with you all, I just don't have the time right now. So I'm going to watch the show like a normal person (grin) and let you know what messages I think are being sent and how characters are being presented without the benefit of any background spoilers. I hope it'll be useful in some way!
OK, here we go.
NAKUM
Blake
Buff, brave; sucked it up when he got smashed by the branch. None of this "my body is a temple and therefore I must quit" stuff, which we've seen a couple of times before with body-conscious men. At Tribal Council, refers to the "adventure" which, to me, suggests he plans to be around for a while but mayn't have the killer instinct to address the fact that this is a cutthroat game you have to WIN. Clearly relieved he wasn't voted out. I expect to see him attempting to over-achieve in the next few days, to make up for his slow start. Overall impression: neutral.
Blobby Jon
Wow, he's put on a ton of weight and looks like someone's well-fed pet gerbil. He's useless all around, just like he was the first time. Someone explain to me what anyone thinks he's good for, except for carrying heavy stuff like a chubby little mule, and he can't even do that any more? Sorry, Tubby Jon, you've got a big target on your back. Danni sneered when Jeff said not many people get two chances to win a mil. He is not long for this game. His edit was unsympathetic; expectations were high and he was shown over and over not to have met them. Overall impression: very negative.
Brandon
I always love the snarky ones, so Brandon is a hit with me. He has good "bad guy" potential. Through no effort of his own and by sheer coincidence really (being the only male not laid low), he has quickly ingratiated himself with the women. Good move. I'm sure many will find Brandon's humour and and snarky comments unpleasant. However, he gets extra points from me for that. Overall impression: moderately positive.
Brooke
Practical; assists Margaret with Bobby Jon. Takes the lead in Tribal Council preparatory discussions, appearing to advocate the dismissal of Bobby Jon. She's a "caller" - doing the map reading, calling out information. I would expect her to be the caller in any situation where players are blindfolded and need to be directed hither and thither, as she is quite authoritative and apparently perceived not to be a physical person as she's the one left to carry the torch in the Immunity Challenge. If an alliance forms among women, Brooke would probably be largely responsible for it as she's already noted that the women have worked hardest and done best on her tribe. Overall impression: moderately positive.
Cindy
Hard worker. In good physical shape. Has a bright and cunning look about her; she seems to listen more than she talks. Purposeful, determined competitor yet concerned to marshal the tribe together during the hike. Leadership qualities without being domineering. Overall impression: very positive.
Danni
Is this Jerri Manthey's little sister?? She is pleased to have Bobby Jon because "a man is stronger than a woman, and it's easy on the eyes". She is a terrible judge of character, being distracted from the truth by all manner of superficial things, and this will cost her in the game. Danni has an ugly sneer that is never far from her face. She appears reluctant and inconvenienced when having to help her sick tribemates. Her soliloquy at Tribal Council was very politically careful, so her head is in the game, for sure, but she's just so unlikeable that she will not go far. Overall impression: very negative.
Jim
The elderly should not be encouraged to participate in games where there are 11-mile hikes through jungles. Obvious boot once his arm popped, much to the relief of Blake and Bobby Jon. And he voted for MARGARET? What an old prick, after everything she did for him! Good riddance. Overall impression: should never have been in the game.
Judd
Brought to mind Chris Daugherty when he was flailing around in the mud! And I loved Chris and knew he was going to win from the outset, so Judd gets some of Chris' reflected glory for being a bit like him at first meeting. According to the editing, Judd can "help carry the team forward" as a shot of Judd lugging branches is shown while Margaret voices over with those words. Judd refers to himself as "Jungle Judd" after a couple of days, a very good attitude. He is edited to be a bit of a clown, but there's more going on under there than meets the eye. Overall impression: moderately positive.
Margaret
My notes say "Useful. A player. Tina Wesson." She's sensible, a leader of the "maternal, I'll make it alright for you" variety. She seems quite at home in the jungle, setting up triage as if nothing were out of the ordinary. I'd want her around if I were marooned somewhere. She's also in great physical shape once you get a look at her abs. Overall impression: very positive.
So, bearing in mind my own personal preferences in players (I like cleverness, cutting humour, capability, and no shrinking violets) here is how I rate the Nakum players this week based just on the actual official footage we were shown during the hour, from top to bottom:
Margaret, Cindy, Brandon, Brooke, Judd, Blake, Danni, Flabby Jon, Jim
YAXHA
Amy
At first she reminded me of Angie -- a misfit, kind of out of shape, seeming like a bit of a liability. Then she started reminding me of Twila, which obviously bodes a lot better. We didn't see much of Amy, though, so I didn't feel like I got a good look at her. I can say she's an optimist, though, which means she has a good mindset for the game; she said "this isn't bad, we'll be all right" when they found their crappy camp. Overall impression: not enough information yet; somewhat negative because she seems unfit.
Brian
Again, not much to work with here. Brian has leadership tendencies -- he was the one who got them all up and moving again as dawn broke on the hike -- but I think he doesn't have the charisma to lead in this game for the long term. He's going to come across as bossy and domineering if he keeps trying to give orders, but I think he knows this and that's why he's not challenging Gary for any leadership role at this point. He struck me as intelligent and having the potential to be conniving, which pleases me. Overall impression: somewhat positive.
Brianna
Sorry, who? I think she said one thing all ep, which was something about Steph being an inspiration to her. Fortunately I had a vomit bag close to hand. A non-entity, hoping for the under-the-radar slot on the roster. Good luck to the editors trying to create an interesting story for her boot episode. Overall impression: very negative. I don't like non-entities.
Gary
OK, so he's the Tom slot then. He's prepared for the game, hiding his background so as not to be a threat. However, as he himself points out, he can't really help but be the leader in this group -- exactly the same as Tom, in fact. He's smart enough to let Steph appear to be taking some of the lead. Overall impression: rather positive.
Jamie
Not much face time, but I liked what I saw. He gave us a money quote -- "How am I going to win the million now that she's here?" in reference to Steph. He listens more than he talks. He shows initiative, prodding Nakum's boat out of the way and propelling Yaxha's forward so that Yaxha could make their turn in the Immunity Challenge -- quite possibly the single move that gave Yaxha enough of a lead to win it. Athletic and balanced; had no trouble grabbing the torch off the pole while standing up in a moving boat. Determined team member, shouting encouragement to his crew while they tugged the boat up the beach. Overall impression: rather positive.
Lydia
Tells Steph that Steph is the reason Lydia is in the game. Ugh, marks off for brown-nosing. I've no idea what Lydia has to offer her tribe; she fell behind during the hike, and was selected to stand around with the torch during the IC. However, she was still jogging at the end of the hike so she has determination, but overall she appeared to be a liability to the team. Overall impression: negative.
Morgan
A huge surprise to me. I expected a trifling little flitty thing, but no -- Morgan is actually spunky, confident, friendly, determined, and can carry stuff on her head with no hands. She has obvious natural leadership tendencies; notice how she is often at the front of the pack and has no qualms about speaking up and making her opinion known. She also attends to team morale, encouraging others both verbally and by example. Overall impression: very positive; I am rooting for her.
Rafe
Is there a prize for Gayest Man Ever To Play The Game? If so, write the cheque to Rafe! :grin: Now, Rafe looks a little lightweight to me physically, but at the same time he helped his team to victory in a strength-based challenge, so there's definitely toughness under the gentle exterior. Additionally, he is a student of the game, you can tell -- he was quick to recognize Bobby Jon and Steph when they appeared, and gave us the "target on your back" commentary about people who head immediately into leadership roles. However, interestingly, he would have said the same thing about Tom had Tom been playing this game instead of Gary, and we know where that would have led! Rafe <i>could</i> go far, but he's got to be ready to adapt to the actual conditions of the game he's playing, and not rely on his historical knowledge of prior iterations. Overall impression: rather positive.
Steph
She started off a combination of smugly pleased with herself, soaking up all the flattery about her prior performance in the game (which was actually a spectacular defeat of unprecedented proportions, if you'll recall). Then she was sulky, which endeared her to me even less. Then she got her moment of Favourite Character Editing when she boo-hooed about FINALLY having an Immunity Idol handed to her despite (a) falling into the water while they were first pushing the canoe out, and (b) falling off a log or whatever typically dumb thing she managed to do when they're pulling the boat up the beach. So Steph thinks it's an asset that she stays the course; well big deal, so does George W. Bush, and look where that's got us. Overall impression: negative. Vote her out asap, please; there should be no second chances in Survivor. And to think we might have to put up with her a THIRD time if they dump another All-Stars on us. :yawn:
So, bearing in mind my own personal preferences in players, here is how I rate the Yaxha players this week based just on the actual official footage we were shown during the hour, from top to bottom:
Morgan (way out in front), Gary, Rafe, Jamie, Brian, Steph, Amy, Lydia, Brianna
At this early stage in the game, for me a good final four would be Morgan, Margaret, Cindy and Brandon/Gary. There's nothing like getting ahead of ourselves, now is there, Survivorites!

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twinsmomm 52 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
09-16-05, 11:35 PM (EST)

33. "RE: A few impressions"

>So Steph thinks it's an
>asset that she stays the
>course; well big deal, so
>does George W. Bush, and
>look where that's got us.
> Overall impression: negative.
>Vote her out asap, please;
>there should be no second
>chances in Survivor. And
>to think we might have
>to put up with her
>a THIRD time if they
>dump another All-Stars on us.
> :yawn:
>
I thought I was the only one who had enough of Stephenie!!!! Seen so many posts that were Pro-Steph. Glad to see one that hits the nail on the head, she doesn't deserve another chance. If they wanted 18 players instead of 16, they should have given those spots to 2 who never had the chance. Fear not though, I doubt she will stick around. The ones who come out swinging strong rarely do. JMHO.

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torchlight 15 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
10-02-05, 06:02 PM (EST)

81. "RE: A few impressions"

Yep - Steph gets on my nerves too. I got tired of her last season. She had her chance, she lost, she's done. Why bring her back?

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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
09-16-05, 06:55 PM (EST)

31. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

Great comments as usual VS.
I am impressed with your comments on Brooke. I got some of the women on Nakum mixed up, so hadn't appreciated just how much she was playing the game.
Regarding the returning players, I put comments 1n the east coast thread but would like to put them down here to get feed- back.
I thought BJ made the same mistakes as before, trying to do too much. In Palau, Tom was is nemesis but in Guatemala, the harsh conditions could be enough.
Stephenie impressed me again. She has learned a few things from last time. If you remeber, early on in Palau, the Ulongs didn't work together on their shelter but rather went in different directions. Yaxha worked in unisson and Stephenie seemed central in getting them together. Also, when Gary stepped in to lead them, she assisted him instead of reacting against him like she did with Jolanda. Of course, Gary wasn't as bossy but I figure she must have seen Gary and said to herself "maybe Tom is on my team this time". Gary is about Tom's age and may be even stronger, he's certainly much more imposing in stature.

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Whole Lotta Rosie 104 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
09-17-05, 03:32 AM (EST)

34. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

VS, et al, great analysis as always.
VS, I must agree, for at least the early going, the major theme could be endurance versus strength.
Danni: ”A man is just stronger than a woman is” (re: getting BJ on their tribe) yet..... ”....surprised at the guys but women tend to have a little more endurance but the guys carried a lot of the load in the beginning” (then men) at TC
Cindy : ”If we lose them (the “strong” men), it’s not even worth having all this”
Jeff: ”The dilemma you have is giving it your all without destroying yourselves in the process”
Brooke: ”None of us deserve to go but the women shouldn’t”
Brooke: ”Bobby Jon was sick, he was the worst off”
Margaret about Blake: ”This really took him (the “strong man”) down a couple of notches”
I am not sure how the “strong men” (BJ and Blake) of Nakum will prevail.
Brooke and Danni showed well in the first episode, which isn’t terribly surprising considering the pre-show evaluations. However, I agree that Danni received some excellent face time and provided what could be the essential theme. Both appear to be players and I would expect that they should be around for a while.
Brooke tended to draw a bigger line in the sand and if “Strong Men” should go, it would not surprise me if she became the leader and collect the tribe.
While it this theme proves well for the women, it also may help the “weaker men” (Brandon and Judd) who were both were shown struggling in comedic fashion. I am curious how the Brandon/Judd narrator responsibility will be handled. Brandon was obviously more enduring in the first challenge with Judd being the second best of the men, as the other three were stricken. I thought Brandon would be a dominate character and narrator and there is nothing yet to tell me that is wrong, but the juxtaposition between Brandon and Judd leads me to believe the Judd is more of an “early narrator” (like James last year), than a more progressive narrator.
Margaret had a pretty solid episode. She was highlighted because of the situation but there is nothing to say that her pre-show buzz is unwarranted. For her continued success I would expect that once medical issues have been resolved she should fade a bit into the background. Should she stay in the forefront her prospects become a bit more unlikely. I am not terribly concerned that she was the “man out” in the Brooke, Danni, Judd and Brandon potential alliance. This tribe was not initially edited as a cohesive tribe and often players “emerge” in these scenarios.
I am lost on Cindy. She had a lot of confessionals without saying a whole lot. I still think she is an early boot, but could ride the weakness of the men for a couple of weeks.
In contrast Yaxha appeared to be, at least now, the more cohesive team.
Steph: ”You are only as strong as your weakest link”
Steph: ”I’m so glad I’m on a tribe with as much heart and determination as me”
Rafe: All we had left was Yaxha spirit; .........giving it everything we have”
I am not sure if this is Steph’s story, or the story of the tribe as a whole, but MB sure does love her. VS nailed the juxtaposition of Steph versus BJ so I won’t go further. Regardless this appears, at first, to be a pretty solid tribe.
I found it interesting that Gary was pegged as the leader of the tribe. They could have ignored this with a couple of edits, as Steph also came out as a pretty strong leader.
Rafe and Brian both emerged with predestined roles. Rafe appears much stronger than Brian for the long term and could go a long way, but I expect both will be around for at least a little while.
VS hit this dead on. Jamie is an intriguing character. Initially I did not see him going far and I am willing to stand by that, but we will hear from him, and often
Ami and Lydia both trailed the pack early, but Stephanie was willing to support them, because they supported her (from an editing perspective). While I initially garnered little hope for Lydia but she may actually be able to sneak by for a while. However, I sense a showdown between Ami and Steph/Gary at some point and I doubt Ami will win.
Morgan is an interesting character. The last two years we have seen an attractive 20-something female slip into the final five completely under the radar. Jiffy’s pre-show comments indicate, that if anyone, it is Morgan. She received a good amount of face time and was very team oriented.
As for Brianna, I have nothing. I didn’t really like her coming in and she didn’t show a lot the first episode to make me think anything better of her.
As we stand now Yaxha appears to be a more cohesive team than Nakum and players that appeared to be more “at risk” at Yaxha have been not been developed enough to warrant their expulsion. It would not surprise me if another Nakum goes next episode.

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applejack93 288 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
09-17-05, 03:36 AM (EST)

35. "A few suss incidents"

Firstly, I want to say that this looks like it will be an AWESOME season. Best premiere since Pearl Islands, and definately I think the season is going to be great!
A few suss things caught my eye though.
a) Jims vote against margaret was not read out. Usually, Jeff draws out the votes as long as possible. He does this by reading every vote that he possibly can before revealing the bootee. In Ep. 1 however, Margaret got a vote from jim, but jeff didn't read it out. Why? I think maybe MB wants Margaret to carry that positive, motherly feeling that I got from her last night - I really like this woman, and seeing a vote against her (esp. in ep. 1) might have made me reconsider, or at least doubt.
b) The whole "Women outlasting the men" theme with the hike. Especially on Nakum - the women APPEARED much physically capable of surviving. Maybe this will be an ongoing theme, with a female winner? Everything I saw last night definately points to a female winner - I just have a feeling.
Anyway, apart from that - I am loving this series sick already and its barely begun. The characters are all interesting and I think the tribes are evenly matched.

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
09-17-05, 11:39 AM (EST)

36. "RE: A few suss incidents"

Wow, everyone has been very busy and I am all ready for the next episode!
Wonderful thoughts from everyone (emy who is our Chad this season lol) and has given me a lot of food for thought.
I think we have a potential handle on the long term players and maybe by episode 2 or 3 we may flesh out who may win this tough season.
As of now I think most of us agree also that Blake, Bobby and Cindy are in dire straits on their tribe due to the editing and facts that we see. On the other tribe, a bit more difficult but Amy (in light of everything we DIDN'T see) looks to be most in trouble along with Brianna (though Brianna is always good for a shield for Stephenie)
aj I expect to hear about the music as well
I'll be re-reading everyone's insight closer again so I can help mesh it with my contributions!

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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
09-17-05, 10:41 PM (EST)

37. "RE: A few suss incidents"

emy who is our Chad this season lol
Well cute-wise it's BLAKE--hubba hubba!! He's gorgeous even puking his guts out!!
On who I want to win who will get close but no cigar (like Ian)--Rafe!!

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Risti 190 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
09-18-05, 00:10 AM (EST)

38. ""Marathon, Not A Sprint...""

Jiffy called it... I think we have our theme for the season here, folks. This is obviously going to be a very physical season, which makes sense, as it is the very antithesis of last season's very character driven season.
How do you win a marathon? Three things:
Strength. Who has it, who doesn't? Who will build momentum, and who will die fast because they don't have
Endurance. We've already had quotes about men vs women in terms of endurance.
Bobby Jon, representing most of the men this season, was highlighted as being "one of the hardest working survivor's ever". Stephanie, representing the women, was "the one who never quit." She was also mentioned to be possibly the strongest woman in Survivor history. There is a third, crucial thing needed to win a marathon, however.
Training. Margaret, the nurse, used her prior training to save her team. Jim, while voted out early, was arguably the person who won his tribe their camp. If he hadn't known how to use a compass, Margaret might still be dabbing water on the foreheads of the Dumb Jocks who would have kept treking through the jungle aimlessly. Gary, on the other hand, is hiding his previous training. People who hide things never seem to do well on Survivor, at least when they're hiding something not directly related to in-game strategy(ie., alliances). Stephanie and Bobby Jon again are there with training, and seem to be edited in as coaches to their <strike>team</strike> tribe. Others in this game seem to have trained in strategy, by studying the game and the way it works.
Over the next little while, then, we're going to want to watch and see who starts fast only to fall fast, and who gains momentum. Also, keep an eye out for people who either have previous experience/training, or are quick to learn and realize the importance of learning and improving their game.
*waves at everyone.* I took the summer off of Survivor, and I'm really excited to see that I haven't come back to discover a boot list ready and waiting. Of course, my first post back would end up being in this thread...

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PepeLePew13 26140 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
09-18-05, 08:05 AM (EST)

40. "RE: "Marathon, Not A Sprint...""

>Gary, on the other hand, is hiding his
>previous training. People who hide
>things never seem to do well on Survivor,
>at least when they're hiding something not
>directly related to in-game strategy (ie.,
>alliances). Stephanie and Bobby Jon again
>are there with training, and seem to be
>edited in as coaches to their ~~team~~ tribe.
>Others in this game seem to have trained in
>strategy, by studying the game and the way it works.
It's worth noting that we were fed this tidbit from Jiffy where he said, "During one of the first challenges, Danni Boatwright, a sports radio talk show host, recognized Hogeboom but he refused to acknowledge his true identity.
Why wasn't this shown in the first episode? Jeff said it took place in "one of the first challenges." I suppose we might see it this week, but in the event it's not shown at all, what does this mean? If they choose not to show this to us at all, it tells me that there's a good chance one of these two (Gary and Danni) gets booted before the tribes merge.

Scratch and sniff
"Tsk, tsk. Pepe's messing with the newbies again." Spidey, 3/30/05

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Witless 84 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
09-18-05, 11:20 PM (EST)

44. "RE: "Marathon, Not A Sprint...""

If they choose
>not to show this to
>us at all, it tells
>me that there's a good
>chance one of these two
>(Gary and Danni) gets booted
>before the tribes merge.
I don't know if Danni has confronted Gary, but according to Jim, she recognized him and discussed it with HER tribe. Jim didn't say anything about her challenging Gary with the knowledge, but Nakum knows who Gary is--or at least they know who Danni thinks he is. Jeff also said somewhere that Gary brushes it off when he is recognized and says that it (being taken for Gary Hogenboom) happens all the time, and that there is a little cat and mouse game that develops, so I think we WILL see something about this--because there isn't much of a reason to show Gary setting up his cover story if that isn't going to become an issue. Jeff said that he was informed of the cover story by a producer before the show started; as a side note, he said the only other time something like that happened, a player named Chip approached him personally and said he wanted to be called Silas, because he had created a character to play in the game. I was most interested to see that Frank voted for "Silas AKA Chip" on Survivor: Africa on OLN Thursday night. But the Silas/Chip thing wasn't a part of the show because it wasn't a necessary part of the story line. And last season, when Willard told everyone he was a mailman instead of a lawyer, it wasn't shown, either--because it wasn't important, as Willard was not a player.
So the fact that Gary's cover story was shown and that he discussed his reasoning for it, and that Jeff has been talking it up, indicates to me that this is going to be something we DO see and that it might even be an ongoing storyline.
As for Rafe--he was a Sucks regular and apparently played some online Survivor game for a while, but he wasn't very good at it. It was some time ago,but I would expect him to know every player and every strategy of every season; he was a big fan and since he's on the show, I would assume he still is.

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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
09-19-05, 10:54 AM (EST)

45. "RE: "Marathon, Not A Sprint...""

THanks witless, great info in your post. So Danni v. Gary--that leads me to believe that they both make it to merge time but Gary is booted sooner rather than later because of this--hiding and he'll be seen as too strong...Sarge S9 finish is where I think he'll go!!!
I'm still waiting for a "Blows regular" to make it onto Survivor!! Did we use up all of our celebrity posters with Shakes??!!??

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
09-18-05, 01:39 PM (EST)

41. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

One thing that really bugged me when it happened was a quote from Rafe, that many are commenting on. Pre-game we here on the boards have researched many of these characters well before the opening credits rolled. We found out that Rafe is a serious student of Survivor and has indeed played online Survivor games. Why then did he quote about Gary.....We all know that the first one voted off of the tribe is the leader, and right now Gary is the clear leader....Hello Rafe, we know you watched Palau because we know that you know Steph and BJ, don't you remember who won....the alpha dog leader? (I'd also like to insert here that the alpha dog leader of All-stars did pretty darn well too, coming in second to his coat tail rider. )
For a smart guy, this comment seemed ridiculous, is he a smart player or not? Did they edit that in there to make him appear not so bright....
Another thing that we know on the boards, thanks to KO fan, but highly doubtful the general viewing population knows is that according to the John Nash theory, a leader in a tribe of followers tends to do very very well, like win.
Perhaps I am just finding that Rafe is falling short of the pre-season expectations that I may have had for him....yet the viewing audience I'm certain is quite sure that the leader won last season....
fp
PS. Hey KOFAN, can't wait to see your post episode 1 thoughts on the John Nash theory! Please do it! Pretty please!

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
09-18-05, 04:46 PM (EST)

42. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

LAST EDITED ON 09-18-05 AT 06:23 PM (EST)
Your feedback definitely has gotten my wheels turning
pepe, I did not know this regarding Gary's "outing" by Danni as I tend not to pay attention to a lot of the articles, etc. (too much for me to read lol)
But it DOES tie into the editing so I'm glad you brought that up. It was shown to us that Gary is hiding his identity but apparently Dani asked him about this so it was not shown on purpose. My question since I did not read this information is whether she questioned him IN FRONT OF EVERYONE? If so, then EVERYONE is aware. Does this mean one or both are not there before merge? I'm not sure yet. It is interesting though they allowed US to hear his wish to keep it secret when, in fact, he was questioned. Why does the audience need to think it is a secret??
Leaders, leaders, leaders. Dangerous or useful. We know that Stephenie did not particularly like someone who was an overt leader (Jolanda) and got rid of her quickly. Gary was "called out" by Rafe as leader yet Stephenie was not mentioned in this regard by Rafe. Leaders are vulnerable depending on HOW they lead. Gary will only seal his fate should he lead in the way that others are not happy about. Then again, someone like Amy who appears to have quite a vocal side to her could be construed as someone TRYING to be leader and failing miserably.
Stephenie may have a lot of input (unlike poor Bobby) on her tribe as to who should stay/go. The question for Stephenie is she going to do what she did last time and get rid of the strong people even if they are overbearing OR does she get rid of the weaker person as she herself said you are only as strong as your weakest link. The big question is what she considers a weak link (someone who is literally the weakest or someone who is not conforming to what she wants to do)
Should they lose: Amy, Brianna, Lydia did not do much for me to be surprised should they go (although Lydia's expressions to Stephenie make me think she may stay) While Gary has been cursed by Rafe to be the leader, his storyline appears that it should grow more in my opinion as Rafe putting that target on him, Gary's discussion of hiding his identity (even though someone asked already) and so forth is a lot of investment in Episode 1 to leave in Episode 2.

Then again, editing is frustrating like that
We know first boots typically are: bossy, sick, eldes and/or who stood out as losing the challenge so usually the first boot is what you see is what you get or so it would seem......
ETA: em - I like your choice to supplement Chad

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
09-19-05, 12:11 PM (EST)

47. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

LAST EDITED ON 09-19-05 AT 12:11 PM (EST)
but apparently Dani asked him about this so it was not shown on purpose. My question since I did not read this information is whether she questioned him IN FRONT OF EVERYONE? If so, then EVERYONE is aware.
VS, I don't think Danni has asked Gary about it yet, although apparently she has told the members of her own tribe who she thinks he is.

Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
09-18-05, 05:50 PM (EST)

43. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

Fp...I think Rafe's quote was put in because Gary is a leader that does not make it...like Sarge. Leaders have certainly left early, like JOLANDA, in Palau. A leader is not good to be when it is a M or D tribe with 2, 3 or more leaders. I think on Yaxha you have Steph, Gary and Brian as emerging leaders.
I don't think Gary will go anytime soon but he leaves around the merge time.
Under Nash theory, it is good to be a leader on an N tribe with just followers. I think because of the sickness, Nakum, by default, became an N tribe with Margaret as the leader. (like Richard of Tagi in S1).
I like Rafe, so stop picking on him, ya big bully

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
09-19-05, 12:21 PM (EST)

48. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

If Gary isn't the first person voted out of Yaxha, Rafe's comment means precisely nothing. To me, this is something that we get at the beginning of practically every season: someone is worried about being seen as the leader, and then someone else comments on how it is bad it is to be seen as the leader.

Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
09-19-05, 01:26 PM (EST)

49. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

Thank you BR for letting me know who knew what with reference to Gary.
You are correct in those typical comments regarding the "leader" I do feel it may be pertinent as time goes on however in light of Stephenie's presence. Since Stephenie was, in fact, portrayed leading her group; this may turn into a storyline perhaps of two people leading and which one can't. I think there was also supposed to be some irony in that Gary advised the audience he was trying to keep low key despite his taking leader initiative and regardless of his trying to hold back a bit, he was already "pegged" by Rafe
As I had already went through the show and the players, I won't repeat myself (good thing ) but Gary did not appear to me as someone vulnerable at this stage in the game.
This was an episode full of many confessionals although some were more frivolous than others. Gary's discussions as well as discussion about him appeared to dictate some longevity.
Based on the mostly positive reviews about Stephenie from her tribe; it would appear that her opinion is very relevant in terms of who is vulnerable.
Decisions are always a theme in this game. We also know that there has been a lot of suffering. I would hope that Stephenie has realized past mistakes and makes the proper decisions as opposed to last season. At this juncture, Amy still weighs heavy for me. I still am amused that the shrieking monkey was noticed by someone who has been outlined to us as having a very loud mouth

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
09-23-05, 02:56 PM (EST)

50. "Post Ep 2, the Players, the Game, the Editing...."

Once again, I'm an eager beaver and can't wait to get this thread rolling! So much was given to us in the editing this time around, I thought. I'll start over at Nakum with the duo of Judd and Brandon. These two sure do seem to talk alot, perhaps an alliance is forming. They just strike me as being two bad boys who are very jealous of the two sicker ones. It's like they are vying for the maternal attention in the tribe(Margaret) and falling short. And then when Blake was the hero of the RC, we have Judd saying, "but, next time I want to be the hero"....and by God he was.....but will it work....will he get the attention he craves?
I just find that they are not thinking on how to best get to the end game with all of this focus on the sick ones. They seem very focused on the here and now. They lead me to believe that they can't wait to boot the sick ones, but the way I see it is that they can use those "sick ones" for their strength and then dump them later....but if they don't have the numbers at the merge they could be done. They seem as if they are playing the game very personally, and I don't think that has boded well for others in the past seasons.....what do you think, am I off here?
Mother Margaret is still very worried about Blake, and I would be too if I were there! Having respiratory difficulty is nothing to take lightly, it's as though he was hyperventilating and that could be a sign that his pH balance could be off which is CRITICAL....I'd say he and Bobby Jon are definately not over their heat stroke yet....I think it's critical that they keep these two around as healthy as they can get them in order to survive the pre-merge challenges. I felt as if Blake more than proved his worth in both challenges.
As for the other girls in Nakum? What other girls, were they there? Are they going to play the UTR card for the rest of the show or are they being saved for later....I think some will be longer lasting under the radars while some probably won't have much of a story line. I thought that Cindy rocked at those challenges! Danni revealed her knowledge of Gary's past but doesn't seem to want to hold it in for a later time, as we know she's starting trouble by making a point of revealing it to Brian MID-CHALLENGE. Trying to rock the Yaxha boat, so-to-speak.
Over at Yaxha we had the most to learn as we really didn't see much of them last week. They do seem quite unified in the beginning with Jamie remarking on how diverse a group they are yet they make one very unified tribe. Then Steph remarks that they are like a "big family".
Then we see a confessional with Gary and when that's over, a snake is seen! Wonder what that means...is Gary going to be a snake or is the snake going to get him? It made me think that Gary will be the snake.
Then back at Yaxha after the RC loss, we hear Gary point to Morgan as the laziest at camp and she doesn't do anything....then we see a CROCODILE right after this statement....this again reinforces to me that Gary could be a snake and a croc. It was Gary that I thought very cleverly suggested two people for the boot.....thereby getting his number one choice, Morgan, in and another expendable player....by suggesting two names he lets the group decide. It was always obvious to me that he wanted Morgan out, and by gosh, he got her out.
Alot of peeps are giving Brian the credit for the Morgan boot, but to me it was Gary that orchestrated it. Brian was yet a vehicle in carrying out the dirty work....as I think Gary wanted him/or someone to do. Brian was very clever though in how he did it, telling Lydia that she needs to plead her case to the right people. Then we see her making her case to Gary.To me it is Gary that is the leader of this tribe, albeit, happy to have Steph there as well. Gary knew all along that he needs Steph and the strength to get the numbers to make it to the end game(contrasting with the Nakum men...Brandon and Judd....that seem to want the sick strong ones out). Gary also appeared as the leader when Amy, Jamie, and Brian were walking with Gary and they started discussing boot choices and then Jamie first suggested Steph...I thought Gary was very clever in how he handled that. Gary looks to me to be the Tom of this season....unfortunately for him the rest of the cast knows that Tom ultimately survived last season, so I think he will ultimately fail....someone will get him in the end. It's clear to me that Brian is indeed onto Gary and his past quarterback profession. Gary also made a very wise comment regarding the boot choice..."you just can't get emotional"!
Brian is a very intriguing player and I do admit he reminds me of Cesternino....let's see if he can save himself as many times as Rob C did. Definately think he will be blindsided when his time comes. But no doubt in my mind, he's a player!
I was thrilled that Jamie's plan to get Steph out was revealed to her as now I can look forward to these two battling it out. I can tell you my money is on Steph, as we hear how determined she is in confessional....I will last to the end, this time! She seemed shocked to hear that Jamie was out for her! I could see her competitive dander rising!
Lydia has gained MUCH ground in my opinion. She's a clever little worker that is willing and able to do what she has to do to survive in this game. I can certainly see that she is a survivor in real life as well. I'd say Lydia will be sticking around for a long time. Loved her confessional, I always knew the way to a man's heart is through his stomach! She is a very valuable member around camp. Makes me wonder about the pre-show Spanish blog....hmmmmm?
Amy seems right in the mix of things, a player. She is the one that raised the bootee subject first, and she's the one that made a B-line to Steph to tell her about Jamie and his plans for Steph. But, alas, we see in the preview that she hurts her ankle....I don't know, is this blantant misdirection, or is this foreshadowing?
Brianna....wow, totally under the radar, almost non-existant...as Morgan was too, until Gary called attention to her being the laziest. Brianna choked big time in the RC challenge...she's weak on a tribe that is valuing strength...I'd say she's not long for the show....
Rafe. For all of the preshow hype this guy got, he's shown me nothing. I thought he had a moronic statement about the leader last ep, and as BR pointed out, that was a worthless statement as Gary is still there, and then this week his RC challenge performance was downright pathetic. I do not see what anyone sees in this guy. (Sorry, e, just can't see it). If he had an alliance with Morgan pre game, I'd say that he didn't hone in on the "one" that he needed to, that's for sure! He's an under the radar guy and does not elicit any support or regard from me....yet. Hopefully he'll get with the program and do something worthy soon.
Jamie is an ox and their strongest player, but definately not the brightest bulb on the Survivor tree. Can't believed that he revealed himself so soon....I expect him to last to the merge(solely for his strength).
Well, all for now! Can't wait to read everything everyone else has to say!

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
09-23-05, 03:42 PM (EST)

51. "RE: Post Ep 2, the Players, the Game, the Editing...."

I disagree that Gary engineered the Morgan boot. Brian finessed it, in order to save Lydia. Brian on the Insider says he made an alliance with Lydia and they will always tell each other if they hear anything about the other getting targetted.
Gary was ultimately leaning toward voting out Lydia, because he wanted to keep the person he thought would be better in the challenges. And according to Morgan, she was in a six-person alliance that included Gary (and didn't include Brian).
After Morgan left TC, Brian patted Gary on the knee as if to say, "Don't feel bad, it will be all right." I think Gary wound up placating Brian in part because he doesn't want Brian bringing up the football thing again. That information could be a big factor in how things play out at Yaxha for the next few episodes.

Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
09-25-05, 01:59 PM (EST)

63. "RE: Post Ep 2, the Players, the Game, the Editing...."

I just don't know about Brian, BR. Definately he's a smart kid and he's very knowledgable regarding the game of Survivor. I just got the impression when I watched the show that it was Gary who would prefer booting Morgan over Lydia...he was the one that pointed out his rationale for her boot to the rest of the tribe, that she was the laziest around camp. I felt that Gary saw Lydia's worth around camp and with the fish. No doubt that Brian and Lydia were supporting each other all the way and I agree, it was Brian that campaigned for her. As far as telling her that she needed to make her case for herself to certain others, that wasn't Brian's genious coming through, that was Brian honoring a pact he already had with Lydia.
I am just saying that it seems that others in the tribe looked to Gary as to his opinion on who to boot. I thought that it was very clever to call out 2 choices and let the tribe take over the debate. AS for Morgan being in an alliance with Gary....I really question that, as Pepe notes, to me it was as if Morgan was indeed clueless....she thought that she was in an alliance with Gary and the others. That's all.
AS for Brian, I definately see him as a Rob C. type player, but Rob C managed to save himself multiple times and was able to sway and play other members of the group toward any boot but himself...if there is something to the core alliance that Morgan identifies, it will be VERY interesting how Brian manages to survive as Rob C. did. You never know, an opportune switch of tribe members could do the trick.

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Loquatrix 640 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
09-23-05, 05:45 PM (EST)

52. "Week 2 impressions"

I'm not actively spoiling this season, so here are my impressions of the competitors from the perspective of the "Average Viewer" -- i.e. someone without any background knowledge of spoiler information.
NAKUM
Blake
Plenty of face time because he's easy on the eye even when he's ralfing. Clearly trying to take the "hero in challenges" route to keep himself in the game; needs to be careful, as this has been identified and pointed out by Judd, and it's actually a very selfish way of playing the game, even though on the surface it looks like it's good for the team. Overall impression: remains at neutral, same as last week.
Blobby Jon
Hardly any face time at all. Faceplanted in the reward challenge; he's such a clown. Overlooked in favour of Blake for the honour of going twice in the reward challenge. Overall impression: negative, up from very negative last week, only because he wasn't on camera long enough to really piss me off this week.
Brandon
Plenty of face time. The more I see of Brandon, the more I like him. He says Blake needs to "Man Up" in contrast with the episode's title of "Man Down". Brandon is a source of fun epithets and I find him likeable in his occasional snarks. He caught the first fish, and was quick and agile at the reward challenge. Additionally, he was the only person to actually grasp a flag in the Immunity Challenge (Judd's wins came by getting closest to the flag). Overall impression: very positive, up from last week's moderately positive.
Brooke
Hardly any face time at all. Acquitted herself well enough in the reward challenge. Overall impression: neutral, down from moderately positive, because she wasn't on camera enough to continue making a positive impression.
Cindy
A small amount of face time. Great in the reward challenge -- made up a lot of time. Seemed to be on the outskirts of the group hug at the end of the reward challenge. Overall impression: her performance in the reward challenge is enough to keep her at very positive, same as last week, even though she had little on-screen time to work with.
Danni
A good bit of face time. Gets a key confessional with the whole "identifying Gary" business; destroying someone's game plan is a serious business and Danni pulled the trigger on this one WAY too early, IMO. While she was clever politically in Week 1's tribal council, she messed up re: Gary; she should have kept that info tucked down her bra for use MUCH later in the game which indicates to me that she's not a ten-steps-ahead planner and therefore unlikely to win the game. She was good in the reward challenge and held her own with Brian in the mud. Overall impression: improved from very negative last week to somewhat negative this week. Someone should tell her that a grin looks much better on her than the sneer she was wearing all last week.
Judd
Tons of face time this week. He blows it in the reward challenge, but dangling from a net is not a heavy man's game and he more than makes up for it in the immunity challenge. Judd confesses his resentment of the lovely holiday Blake is having, and spins his own failure at the reward challenge into Blake's fault for taking it easy rather than working around camp. Doesn't get much reciprocation from Brandon, just a grunt really, when he raises this with Brandon. "I want to be the hero," says Judd to the audience. Overall impression: same as last week, moderately positive.
Margaret
Much less face time this week than last, since Blake's feebleness is much more sporadic now, and apparently confined to times when everyone else around camp is working. Overall impression: positive, down from last week's very positive, since she didn't really do much of note this week and should start expanding her gameplay into being something more than Blake's nanny.

YAXHA
Amy
Much more face time than last week. Amy is flitting between the various groupings in the tribe, which is always a dangerous business but may not be too apparent to everyone while so many people are still at camp. She is in with the men to some extent, because one of them must have told her that Jamie had put Steph's head on the chopping block for consideration, because that conversation happened only between the four men. Overall impression: neutral, up from last week's somewhat negative, because this week she is seen to be playing the game.
Brian
A good amount of face time and good in both challenges. Brian has some powers of persuasion at camp, because he maintains he was able to switch the vote from Lydia to Morgan at the last minute. He and Lydia seem to have some kind of friendship going. Brian has been keeping an eye on who works around camp and talks up Lydia's contributions. I note with interest that Brian says "Yes!" loudly when Jeff asks if they're ready for the challenge. Overall impression: somewhat positive, same as last week. If he keeps his mental game on the ascent, he'll improve in my ratings.
Brianna
Sorry, who? Why was Morgan voted out, and Lydia even under consideration, when we have Brianna to toss overboard whenever the need arises? She was useless in the reward challenge (she was the only female competitor not to get a bag) and they sat her out for the IC, so they obviously know she has nothing to offer the tribe. Overall impression: very negative, same as last week. I don't like non-entities. I totally disagree with booting Morgan while Brianna was available and I think (hope) this decision will cost Yaxha because it was foolish.
Gary
Lots of face time. Gary has no guile. He did a rubbish job of covering himself when questioned about being a QB. He did a rubbish job of handling Lydia when she asked him if she was safe with him. There's going to be a power struggle between Gary and Brian. Brian thinks he swung the voting to Morgan, but Morgan was Gary's original target until Steph suggested Lydia. Perhaps Gary is playing a smart game and deliberately not taking the lead, but I think not; if he were capable of that, he'd do a smarter job of covering up his quarterbacking history. Overall impression: neutral, down from rather positive. He hasn't got the mental game, I don't think; his thought process is lumbering rather than agile.
Jamie
More face time this week. Seems to be naturally veering towards alliances with men; he doesn't seem to think much of the women on his tribe, except for Steph, on whose back he deliberately paints a large target at TC. Comments on the tribe's diversity; identifying these kinds of things is usually a sign of someone whose head is in the game. Overall impression: rather positive, same as last week. Steph is going to be gunning for him, and you don't want that if you can help it, not at this early stage of the game. Needs to reel in his yapping a bit.
Lydia
Plenty of face time but mainly as boot misdirection. Did her job in the reward challenge; as Brian says, Lydia isn't losing challenges for them. Overall impression: neutral, up from negative last week, because providing even tiny fish is a good contribution when people are starving.
Morgan
No positive camera time at all. Last week, I had been left with a very positive overall impression of Morgan, but I realize now this was just telling her whole story in advance of her boot episode. I knew as soon as she was given that big fat negative edit of sitting on a tree stump and drinking water while others were working, that she was gone this week; that last week was all about setting her up for her story to end today. Additionally, the camera lingers tellingly on Morgan on two occasions when immunity or tribal council is mentioned. I wonder what she did to piss everyone off -- can you really be so lazy at camp in 4 days that all your spunkiness and usefulness in challenges goes out the window? Overall impression: I'm not surprised the spoilers didn't peg Morgan for the boot this week (I looked at the boot picks just now). It was a total surprise and well done EPMB for bamboozling us.
Rafe
Quite a lot of face time. Wow, did he ever dodge a bullet this week. He pulled a Chris Daugherty on this one, although the difference there is that Chris was proactive in setting up someone else for the boot, whereas Rafe seems to have just gone along with what the others were suggesting. Sensible fellow, using the Sandra-style "anyone but me" tactic. Since Rafe's ignominious floundering at the reward challenge was never discussed for the cameras, we must assume that he has escaped the wrath of his cohorts this time. It'll bite him in the arse and hard if he messes up another challenge, though. Overall impression: negative, significantly down from last week's rather positive. I'm afraid Rafe just embarrassed me this week.
Steph
Tons of face time. Is it just me, or whenever Steph says something of note, does the exact opposite happen? Ep 1, she says something like "I'm not going to be on the tribe that loses the first challenge" or something, which they promptly do. She comments this week that Yaxha is a family and that they're going to keep it together as long as they can, but they end up having to boot someone this week. She says she'll survive on corn and water until she wins a food challenge, but she gets a small fish from Lydia. The reason I'm saying all this is because this week she practically stamped her foot when she said "I refuse to go early." Well, Steph, because you seem to be an ironic figure in this series, I think you may actually be going early. I think Jamie gunna take you down, Miss Thing. Overall impression: still negative. Being "the strongest girl on the tribe" is not aiming high enough, Steph -- you were the strongest girl last time, too.
Viewing all the competitors together, I'm having the most fun with Brandon at the moment, and I also like Cindy (though I think she needs to do more on the relationships thing at camp -- she's an outsider at the moment, it seems to me). Brian and Jamie both have the capacity to impress me if Jamie hasn't blown his wad too early (which I don't think he has, because Stephenie said he has, and she's wrong about everything).

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
09-23-05, 06:03 PM (EST)

53. "RE: Week 2 impressions"

she messed up re: Gary; she should have kept that info tucked down her bra for use MUCH later in the game
I disagree. What good does this info do her later in the game when Gary is potentially winning individual immunities? The point is to get him kicked out of the game asap. If Yaxha boots him, they would likely start losing more IC's, thus giving Nakum the advantage come merge time. That's what I'd be hoping for.

Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

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Loquatrix 640 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
09-23-05, 06:46 PM (EST)

54. "RE: Week 2 impressions"

What good does this info do her later in the game when Gary is potentially winning individual immunities?
But why does she suppose the information will get him booted at this stage of the game?
If I were on Yaxha, I wouldn't boot Gary because I found out he was once a quarterback. I already know he's one of my strong males and therefore a potential immunity hog after the merge; the new knowledge that he was once a quarterback doesn't suddenly make him a post-merge threat where he wasn't one before. He's always a threat, but keeping him around is a risk I have to take if I want to have the best chance of making the merge.
If I were Danni, I'd have kept the information to myself with a view to using it for my sole benefit after the merge. Knowledge is power and I'd have used that knowledge to introduce myself to Gary after the merge and invite/force him into a Final Two alliance with me that I could ride all the way to the end, whereupon I'd dump the information in Final TC and make it sound like he's already a millionaire and has been lying to them all this time and people should vote me the money instead.
Maybe Danni is just much more of a team player than me. ::grin::

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Jerrethan 51 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
09-23-05, 09:01 PM (EST)

55. "RE: Week 2 impressions"

>But why does she suppose the
>information will get him booted
>at this stage of the
>game?
>
Because Gary's in Stephenie's tribe. Enough said.

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
09-26-05, 02:00 PM (EST)

66. "RE: Week 2 impressions"

But why does she suppose the information will get him booted at this stage of the game?
She'd have no way of knowing what would happen, but the information would *potentially* create suspicions within the Yaxha tribe. And it has. That was a good enough reason to do it.
If Danni had started off on the same tribe as Gary, it would be a different story. I could see her going to him privately and saying "I know who you are"; she could manipulate him to ensure she stayed around until the merge. That is more or less what Brian appears to have in mind, now that he has the information.
But with Gary on the opposing tribe it would be thinking too far ahead to project using the info in a post-merge scenario, as bait for a final 2 alliance. Why would Gary even go for that, when it should be obvious she would spill the beans in front of the jury if she didn't do it earlier. And she'd have to anticipate that Gary would probably come into the merge in an alliance formed on Yaxha anyway.
Right now Danni's main concern is her own tribe. Gary is on the other tribe, so she doesn't care what happens to him. If she can create an uncomfortable situation for him, all the better.

Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
09-29-05, 07:31 AM (EST)

71. "RE: Week 2 impressions"

The Danni outing of Gary at that time was very interesting. It could have been opportunity at that point knocked since they were in close proximity to each other where other challenges don't have that close contact so she took that opportunity.
I think, like Gary said, she wanted to create a disturbance somehow; whether it would get Gary booted would probably just have been a bonus perhaps. Lies, loyalty, betrayal are part of this game but NO ONE in this game accepts it when it happens. I'm sure she felt by exposing him, she would be stirring a pot to cause mistrust which would lead to lack of cohesiveness and could potentially get rid of a strong player.
Human emotions get in the way of this game. Logic dictates that you keep your strong players at least for the time being. Unfortunately, people get let emotions cloud them and will boot someone over another reason
This lie will benefit someone on Yaxha because it can be used as a manipulation tool. Perhaps Lydia is up for boot discussion again and Brian doesn't want her to go. If he manipulates those in Gary's group by telling them he has been lying, what ELSE is he lying about..........that initiates paranoia, mistrust, etc.
I'm still pondering Yaxha's characters. Stephenie's edit defintitely bodes well for her. The others collectively have signals but some things are "off" Jamie's whole edit is about Stephenie and since Stephenie appears long term, this may be Jamie's undoing. Brianna is too low key for me to believe she could go this soon but logic dictates that she is one of the weaker players. Brian seems to have an arc growing as does Lydia but Lydia is one of the weaker people as well. Editing overlooked Rafe's performance which tells me that he will be around and he has a heavy narrator edit but again, he is not a strong physical player. Amy is deemed "tough" and in a group with more numbers but she has not been developed (as opposed to being invisible) Gary is an enigma (or rather his edit) There seems to be so much developing with him but something is a tad off as well.
This is going to be a very interesting tribe to observe. Jamie and Gary's edit bother me a bit. Amy's still feels short term and Lydia needs another episode (if she is staying) to get a better handle on how far she may progress.

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applejack93 288 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
09-24-05, 08:54 AM (EST)

56. "Ep. 2 & Music"

Wow, this season just keeps on getting better and better!
VS, as you asked I have some thoughts on the music of this episode, and I have a lot to write - some esoteric, some very pertinent!
Firstly, let me say that the percussion section seems to be having a field-day this season. Tam tams, bongos, congas, xylophones, marimbas, rain sticks, triangles etc. can all be heard quite clearly. This isn't unexpected, though, in a show based largely around Tribes - but it IS more noticeable this season than last. However, this may just be a reflection of locale.
Another general thing to notice is the fact that there is a large group of voices singing in the opening credits rather than the more clearly heard two or three women that have been heard all other series. Maybe this reinforces something about groups? I dunno.
The first MAJOR thing I noticed was the music as Judd walked past Blake at Nakum, just after he had finished his speil on how much he disliked Judd. The music went tension-crazy - the beats were syncopated, the volume loud - this is definately going to be some sort of conflict. Judd has something to prove, and he has it in for blake.
Secondly - I don't think enough can be said about Danni calling out Gary at the challenge. Alot of the time, composers (and even great speakers) use pauses to gain everyone's attention, and when Danni called Gary out there was a sudden hit to a gong and then silence. Evidently the producers wanted this to be a BIG moment, and the composers definately capitalised on it. This looks like it may turn into a BIG issue, simply because even the composers decided to emphasise it.
Another interesting catch was the fact that there was a pan flute playing when there was discussion about Morgan's lack of work ethic. Now, this may not seem all that odd until you consider that when Yaxha returned to camp after the IC, the pan-flute took a dominant role in fleshing out the musical theme that underscored all the boot discussion. It is hardly a definitive (nor accurate) way of predicting the boot - but I think that there are definately musical ideas that link one survivor to the boot. Trying to catch them before or even during the episode is difficult, but as soon as Yaxha returned to camp I had a hunch Morgan was gone - simply because I noticed a similarity between the music surrounding the discussion of her poor work ethic, and the music surrounding the discussion of the boot.
Finally, may I just say that I love Lydia? She seems so nice. Even if she does go early she's getting a lovely edit, isn't she?

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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
09-24-05, 11:31 AM (EST)

57. "Emy's thoughts on Ep. 2"

Ok, I thought I had the boot in 2 pegged on the edit of 1, Amy, but I was wrong, but I think the ankle injury does not bode well for her in ep. 3. Who she reminds me of--Twila, of course, right down to the sneering at Steph's french braiding
FP-you are just a big fat meanie to poor little Rafe Ok, I admit I was wrong and he's not Rob C, rather he is Sandra, but I see him going far. He is the "spirit" of Yaxha and there are so many other minnows to fry at Yaxha and beyond the merge, that I seen him going far into the game--F3 anyone? However, he won't be as lucky as Sandra...and will end up being an Ian imho. Another interesting quote from Jiffy and immediate pan to Rafe (and Gary btw)... After Yaxha's loss in RC, Jiffy again said, close gets YOU NOTHING in this game and immediate pan to Rafe and Gary...both will not win
Another interesting mention during RC about Brianna (WHO?) "Brianna can't hold on." She is non existent and I don't see her as this year's sweetheart F5 F4 player (I had Brooke or Morgan pegged at that--so now I think Brooke wins this distinction). I, like Loquatrix, after I realized that Amy wasn't going anywhere in Ep. 2--said, why isn't Brianna being pegged for boot? and why did Steph pick Lydia over Brianna as the boot to get her name out of contention? I think Steph has pegged Bri as her safety net.
My thoughts from last week haven't really changed much with the editing of ep.2 ..I see Amy, Cindy, Blake, BJ and Brianna as early boots still.
Brian --he will either make it almost all the way like Rob C or will go out quickly, I am really not sure about him now.
Lydia..either will go pretty far like Caryn or will be this year's Angie-who proves something to herself and gets a great edit--but still goes early because of perceived "strength issues."
Gary, Judd, Jamie (the "unmasked "QB" and the two "troublemakers" ) as merge time boots, with the rest as the jury and f2
And, imho still, a woman will win it...the only man who has a chance is Brandon, imho..he says as little as possible to others even though he agrees with sentiments. Case in pt. His confessional about Blake "man it up" but then when Judd starts yacking about it, he just grunts. I like him alot. And wouldn't mind if he won it.
Margaret, is still a favorite of mine to go along way.

Interesting music post Applejack!! I will have to pay attn. Imho, I think ANTS are the theme this year. Ants are seen as strong little buggers that endure and do much more than expected...I really do hope the fact that Steph won't eat em is a bad omen for her...I really can't stand her Rupertesque behavior!! But don't worry Steph fans, I'm sure EPMB and CBS will give away another million to her in "America's 2nd TC"

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body 36 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
09-24-05, 03:49 PM (EST)

58. "RE: Emy's thoughts on Ep. 2"

LAST EDITED ON 09-24-05 AT 06:03 PM (EST)
NAKUM
BLAKE strong in challenges but seen as lazy at camp. he will be around for only a few more weeks unless he starts helping around camp. no one likes being taken advantage of by a lazy person. in the game or not.
BRANDON strong one he is. only one to grab a flag at the challenge. very game smart. didnt get sick. no targets on his back yet with the sick guys an weaker women to chose from . he will last to the merge.
BROOK strong maybe but if the sick guys dont get booted she is certianly a target. not needed to merge.
CINDY same as brook. if they keep the stronger sick and lazy ones she is another easy target.wont make the merge.
DANNI strong ,playing the game getting involovedin whats going on in the game .i see her going to the merge .with all the other choices to vote off.
JIM old weak ones allways go quick easy choice .thats why hes gone lol.
JUDD strong .there is too many targets before him .hes safe till the merge. thats why he loses so much weight .hes gonna work hard for his tribe.
MARGARET a caregiver allways does well. she will make it to the merge. everyone likes a mom figure.
i like brandon and judd in this tribe.thier heads are in this to win .
YAXHA
AMY strong. working her tribe before tc . in the game to win .she will make it to the merge. hurt foot being hurt and her saying she still wont quit tells me shes staying and its meant to look like she might go home .no way i say tough . they need tough. merge for her.
BRIAN smart knows how to work his tribe members.helped lydia stay. too smart no one like a smart person telling them what to do. he wont last.
BRIANNA not a valued member of the tribe she will be next or very soon , she wont make the merge.
GARY strong player .his lie was blown off by his tribe as morgan said in her intervues , when danni outed him. i believe danni will keep it up and it will come out. no one like a lier. and they will think dang he dont need the money.he will go far cause hes strong maybe even as far as the merger but will not win .
JAMIE strong no target on his back .too many other choices befroe he will go .he will make the merge.
LYDIA very active member of her tribe . fishing, cooking, tough durable. she will go far .just because she was considered in the second tc doesnt mean she will have to worry about it again .what with morgan being a good easy choice to go before he.i see her at the merge .
MORGAN good in challenges and not really lazy .she was not a valued member .thats why shes gone lol.
RAFE weak , pathetic, and yet no target. he must be well liked by all his tribe .no threat to the others he will go far. merge for sure .
i like amy and jamie in this tribe.both playing to win.
i didnt mention the 2 extra survivors because they wont win .no one will want them to win .getting a second chance never sits well with players who went through alot to get where they are .
gary i didnt like him as a backup qb.{im a die hard steeler fan} loli dont like him now.
just my take on what ive seen and read so far .

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Undertow12345 376 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
09-24-05, 04:59 PM (EST)

59. "RE: Jon's thoughts on Ep. 2"

Its very hard to come up with any deep deep insights into these people. I was used to the BB6 thing where I saw ALOT and knew a great deal about each person and the show could not really be edited to get me to make the only conclusion that I can, based on footage shown to me.
I don't think Blake is actually lazy and is playing sick to not get wood or cut up coconuts or whatever. I do think he is young and strong enough to burn all energy in bursts...enough keep him alive by doing well in Challenges. fear of going home helps to make a guy get it going for things!
Gary.
This guy is a like the uncle in Napoleon Dynamite. Thinks he is still a leader and something special. Look...there have been a TON of guys who filled in for a real QB over the last century and had a good game then went back to being who they are. Not good enough. he thinks cause he was a clipboard jockey 50 years ago that he will be seen as a threat?
He sucked then and now he is older and greyer and no better leader than any of the others. Delusion on his part and now he has SENSELESSLY lied about it...and when it comes out they wont trust him. What a knucklehead.
last thing I want to see this year is somebody win it cause we all feel sorry for them or they are such nice people...giving Rupert a million cause he was cuddly and helpless was a disgrace.
I want someone to win that kicks ##### in challenges...keeps thier mouth shut when there is nothing to say..and manipulates.lies and cheats whatever to the end.
No more pity for the cute and cuddly. Its survivor fer Chrissakes.

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Whole Lotta Rosie 104 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
09-24-05, 05:11 PM (EST)

60. "RE: Jon's thoughts on Ep. 2"

Nakum
We didn’t get a lot from Nakam this week, as it was Yaxha’s turn for the boot. But there may be some relevant themes developing.
Margaret and Brandon continue to be the narrators, and I am still positive on both of them. Brandon, though, is more of a character than Margaret, and an early post merge boot wouldn’t surprise me although he could easily last longer.
I am not quite as down on Blake as everyone else. I thought JP’s quote during the RC, Blake and Steph “trying to figure out strategy”, was interesting and I thought Apple Jack’s, music analysis on Judd and Blake also relevant. I felt it, but AJ was able to define it. I see this coming to a head over the next few episodes. While Brandon has privately been hard on Blake, as Loquatrix noted, when Judd came to Brandon with his complaints all he received was a grunt. The three of them are somehow related, but Judd, at least to me, has received the more negative edit. Could Brandon turn on Judd and side with Blake? A possibility; Brandon asked Blake to “Man up” and the reward challenge, and he certainly did. In contrast Judd’s, “I want to be the hero,” reminds of Angie’s episode 2, last year. Regardless the prevailing them of endurance versus strength does not bode will for Blake or BJ, but it is possible that Blake outlasts them both.
Emydi, I completely agree, of the three, Morgan, Brooke and Brianna, Brooke was/is most likely to last the longest. Brianna, just based on JP’s initial comments and her pre season tribal confessional leads me to believe that it some point in time in this game she just, completely, self destructs. Because she has been effectively hid, it may not happen in the next couple of episodes, but MB seems to have changed his editing techniques enough to indicate that she could go any time.
Danni’s outing of Gary and her humiliation of Brian in the IC have to be considered as positives. Many people have questioned whether or not she should have used the information as a bargaining chip later, but regardless, she was shown to be both strong and intelligent.
Cindy fell of the radar a bit this episode. Like Brianna, I just don’t see her lasting long-term. Also, like Brianna, she does have some potential as a “surprise boot”. Loquatrix noted that she was outside the group hug after the reward challenge, which I did not pick up. But according to her pre-show confessional she is very introverted, and when you combine these two, it could become an issue.
Overall we really have not seen a great deal of the tribal dynamics at Nakum. The first episode was focused on the weakness of the men and I believe that this will continue to be a dominant theme this year and it should flesh out in the future.
Yaxha
We were able to see so much more of Yaxha this episode and we were able to get a much better handle on their situation. FP asked after last week how the Nash Equilibrium would impact this tribe, specifically referring to Rafe’s quote, “We all know that the first one voted off of the tribe is the leader”. Last week his comment made very little sense, but after this week the quote can be placed in more context. One caveat, it is still to early to make any intelligent decisions regard Nash and the impact on this season. As KOB says, it really takes about four episodes to really understand tribal dynamics. But the dichotomy is actually interesting enough to, at least, address the situation.
There are a lot of leaders in this tribe. Gary and Brian obviously, Jamie and Steph seem to be constantly throwing their hat in the pot, and Amy, while not being editing as, could also be a potential leader. However at the same time, the tribe is edited as a family. This is inconsistent with the Nash Equilibrium. However each potential leader has been willing to subsequence to the leader (most likely Gary, but who knows) to further the cause of the tribe. IMHO this is exceptional game play by every member of the tribe.
There are many ways this can go. But the two most likely are that Yaxha dominates the next few challenges, as tribes in “edited” equilibrium tend to do, and later the tribe cannibalizes itself, or the tribe just blows up now. However, in either case Rafe should do quite well. Unfortunately, with out more information I have know idea where this may lead, hence KOB’s “four week rule”.
I also like Jiffy’s quote during the RC, “Rafe, knows right where he is at.” This fits in well with where he stands in the tribe. Also, much like last year, the other members of the tribe did not comment Rafe’s complete failure during the RC. This is similar to Katie’s early edit last year during one of the challenges. Not necessarily a winning edit, but someone who lasts awhile.
Brian was edited very well as moving around behind the scenes to avoid Lydia’s boot. The general consensus is that he is a villain; I cannot argue this point. Additionally, this early in the season, such intense game play cannot equate to longevity.
Gary’s football background has been heavily exposed and I can’t think it is good for him long term. The entire “lying thing” at tribal council is only an added bonus. He appears to have a narrator edit, so he should last a while, but for him to last beyond the merge is doubtful.
Lydia edit has actually been pretty strong. What a nice lady. As of right now I see two potential story lines. Either, she has already made her big play to stick around one or two episodes longer than expected, or she emerges as Brian’s pawn, which as VS often says, last much longer than the King.
Jamie and Steph appear to have a battle brewing over the next few weeks. I tend to lean towards Steph. She appears to be a better game player than before, which is a positive, but, as I think was mentioned earlier, her insecurity is becoming Rupertesque.
Amy continues to perplex. Could she go next week as advertised, sure? Could she last awhile, sure?
Overall, a pretty interesting season so far.

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body 36 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
09-24-05, 07:14 PM (EST)

61. "RE: Jon's thoughts on Ep. 2"

Survivor: Guatemala is the eleventh season in the Survivor series. In Survivor Guatemala 20 competitors survive in the wild dealing with the elements of a hostile environment for over a month while competing against one another in a variety of competitions for rewards and advantages in the game. Each week one contestant is voted out by other people in their "tribe" until one remains as the sole Survivor.

seen this at sir linksalot .looks like there will be 20 not 18 players this season hmmm. what do you think?

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Witless 84 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
09-24-05, 11:13 PM (EST)

62. "RE: Jon's thoughts on Ep. 2"

>There are many ways this can
>go. But the two
>most likely are that Yaxha
>dominates the next few challenges,
>as tribes in “edited” equilibrium
>tend to do, and later
>the tribe cannibalizes itself, or
>the tribe just blows up
>now.
After the last TC, I think the Yaxha "family" discussions are an example of MB's beloved irony. They call themselves a family and are supposed to be united as one....but little sister Morgan didn't know she was even under consideration for the boot.
I think this is going to be a theme with Yaxha--that things are not what they seem to be. They talk about how honest everyone is with everyone else--but we all know Gary is lying to them. They talk about how close they are--but Jamie is champing at the bit to get rid of Stephenie, and no one had any trouble at all coming up with Lydia and Morgan as possible boots and rather coldbloodedly discussing their potential value to the tribe. I realize that's part of the game, but it doesn't exactly support their claims to love and harmony and how much it sucks to have to vote someone out.
I think Stephenie's comment about a tribe only being as strong as its weakest member is significant for both tribes--for Nakum, the editing has obviously focused on the weakness of the strong. But in a more subtle fashion, there has been a focus on the "weak" on Yaxha. I think that will develop over the next couple of shows.

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cadfile 176 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
09-25-05, 02:25 PM (EST)

64. "RE: Jon's thoughts on Ep. 2"

I got the sense too that Yaxha talks about honesty and family but they practice none of that in the past 2 eps.
Yaxha is in trouble to the merge and I feel right now that they will be the weaker tribe should there be a merge. From having weaker members physically and the lack of teamwork during challenges and at camp they will have a struggle.
Stephanie fits in with the tribe because all though she lasted from her pathetic tribe last edition she seemed to take over when she thought the others weren't doing what she thought they should do - like the water puzzle when she forced BJ to switch with her and she called out the moves.
As much as EPMB plays up Blake and company at Nukem being sick it sure really hasn't seemed to bother them during challenges so I think it is misdirection and not a big deal.
I actually thought Danni outing Gary DURING the challenge was a great idea and may have shook him up enough to help Nukem. I don't think she was thinking Yaxha would boot Gary but that would be gravy for Nukem. If the issue keeps coming up - like from Brian - then it will be an issue for Gary.

I use to be a photon in the wavelength continuum, but now I wear pants and talk.

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
09-26-05, 08:57 AM (EST)

65. "RE: Jon's thoughts on Ep. 2"

Oh if only careers wouldn't intrude in favorite obsessions
Most of what I am saying has already been touched on so bear with me
Note to those who I have not seen in here before - I'm excited to see more people joining in with those of us who have made editing our favorite past time
Morgan - "I didn't see that coming."
Apparently, we weren't supposed to
aj I am so glad you are posting about the music, I enjoyed it tremendously last season and it DOES assist in situations that are unfolding. A lot of times the music during the scene helps to manipulate the viewer in believing what MB wants the scene to convey.
emydi I state this to you since I saw your sweet note about editing theories do work and they do work, alas, it could be the wrong person The theory that a person does not require a "build up" from a prior episode unless/until the character has been developed already is sound. It applied to Morgan completely as it did to some other candidates which we picked. Unfortunately, the suspicions we had about her when we said we couldn't put a finger on her went in the wrong direction Second boots in the past are not usually central people in the first episode; often we see them highlighted in their boot episode (again, think Kel) so until/unless we are privy to that person's situation prior to their boot, it is hard to determine.
One situation is clear - they are determining who is weak but not for the reasons we thought. Stephenie did want to get rid of what she deemed a weaker person (though I think there was more to her targeting Lydia than her excuse of weakness-see down below) but others wanted the weaker person to go to allow them to ENDURE. I was not inclined to believe Lydia would be leaving as I felt her edit in the first episode had something building and I hope that this is continuing. Recall Jeff's words when Lydia came to the ruins about "spring in your step"
The theme this season that we discussed was endurance (over strength?) I think that theme was very palpable last night and came straight from one of their mouths:
Lydia: "You just feel like they are feeling I can't endure this; I think I've shown them I will never give up"
Ironically Stephenie keeps reiterating what a "strong" player she is.......
Before getting into this episode and anything meaningful that occurred in the game and character development, I have to remind myself that usually Mark Burnett manipulates the editing of the long term players for character development as well as the events. For example, during the course of Yaxha, all we heard was how "unified" they were and what a "family" they were. It was glaringly obvious that those "snippets" were meant to provide the irony we later saw when there was no unification in who they were voting.
Manipulating the Audience
The Ants - The ant snippet was entirely unnecessary in it of itself. However, it made perfect sense in weaving the story around Lydia. She caught fish for her tribe hence leading to her vulnerability and then a clear line of support as to why she should stay.
Judd vs. Blake - I see A LOT of different takes on this; this is what it appeared to be as far as I saw. These confessionals and visuals of the two are only important in how they were melded together and for what reason. Blake essentially was not developed and hence, I do not think he will be around a long time. This montage of Judd vs. Blake helped to develop Judd more in complexity and perhaps, just perhaps make us a little more forgiving of him as the episode went on.. Judd sounded negative in his discussion about Blake laying around and being taken care of
Judd: "Blake does nothing in camp; Margaret is always nurturing him. I hear sit down, relax, get some water.........."
Now we certainly DID see Blake having trouble breathing and Margaret honestly concerned but when he performed to a huge degree in both challenges, how many of you questioned if Judd's confessional
Judd: "He (Blake) got all this strength going into the challenges (because he is laying around)
may have some merit? This was coupled nicely with his wanting "to be the hero"
and what a incredible job he did at the immunity challenge solidified with a group hug around him and a slow motion shot of his lifting the idol in the air.
THAT is building complexity whereas with Blake he was sick, better, sick, better and a confessional how he is feeling better and that he needs to stay competitive which in actuality helped to solidify Judd's issue.
While the Blake vs. Judd scenario may not have elicited the same results to others, it was clear that Judd was made more complex, Blake was not.
The Lie
A huge momentum is building with Gary as we already talked about and it reached the next stage this episode. Danni went to great lengths to expose him even during the middle of her tussle with Brian during the challenge! And the gem:
Danni: "He's a quarterback, you're like a linebacker"
(Notice how the editing then shoots to Gary's tribe mates immediately after)
And perhaps a little foreshadowing.........
As Brian questioned Gary about what Danni said, after Gary denied it you hear an offscreen female voice state:
"Somebody needs to knock her out" (It was not Amy, nor Brianna, nor Lydia...it "sounded" like Stephenie)

The Yaxha Character Development
What is the editing trying to show us? There was A LOT of time that was cut out during the boot discussions and building and not building characters. A perfect example is that from the time Stephenie was a target to her discussing boots, we missed out on a lot. What did the editing show us?
Gary was the person that all of the discussions seemed to revolve around BUT he was NOT the person to make the decision. He was there when Jamie brought up Stephenie, he was there when Stephenie joined the boot discussion, he was the person Lydia went to etc. We ALL noticed (and deliberately done) how Gary waffled throughout the episode, i.e. when Brian asked him about Danni's remarks, when there was boot discussions and when Lydia talked with him
Brian was made to show that he "pulled it out" Regardless of who was in charge of this boot, Brian's edit was made for us to secure that he was pulling strings. Best example: There was NO reason to show Brian telling Lydia that she needs to let them know what she should stay. We could have easily skipped that part and just show Lydia speaking with Gary; it was ONLY necessary to establish Brian and his character This was then built upon with his voting confessional and the pat on the leg he gave to Gary

Stephenie Miss Stephenie is certainly getting her editing due I am reminded a lot of Rupert editing and Mark Burnett is investing a lot of time into Stephenie's character for her not to get pretty far in this game And does anyone notice that Stephenie's comments are a little self serving and somewhat egocentric? THIS is character development. Stephenie is not necessarily being made out to be "all that wonderful" This is actually a good thing. Like Rupert in All Stars, he was taken down from being larger than life and shown the chinks in his armor. Stephenie's edit is different than last season because what is coming out of her mouth this season is making her more complex
Mark Burnett is showing us that Stephenie is not an idiot, that she is regarded not only as a threat but an asset, that she has a faction of people who really like her, she is acknowledged even by the other tribe but at the same time, Stephenie is giving us hints of a side "B".
This depth to Stephenie is NOT just because she is a returning player. Why? Because if that were the ONLY reason, Bobby Jon would get his due as well and he is not. This leads me to believe that Stephenie is going to go pretty far in this game
Rafe Rafe is a wonderful narrator. His confessionals revolved so much around his tribe's relationships, his thoughts on what has to be done, the day to day course of events and so forth. Narrators do pretty well in this game and Rafe has also situated himself firmly as the Yaxha spirit More episodes have to come to determine about Rafe though as a player That has not been developed overtly to us but he is shown constantly talking to the audience and immersed in tribal dynamics if not the one in charge of making them happen. Note also that Rafe did poorly in the RC and much like when Katie did poorly in the challenge, it was NOT brought up - Rafe was not meant to be shown as the person who lost the challenge
Amy I still feel Amy is not a long term character. Regardless that she was involved in the boot discussions, her character has not been developed We saw her ONLY in relation to the events as they were playing out. She did not give us any indepth confessionals about where she stood and why she felt how she felt. Regardless that we saw Amy, Amy's presence was not significant except for us to know that she likes Lydia
Lydia I was waiting for something to develop with Lydia and I'm glad we got to see it. I mentioned up above that I think Stephenie's initial vote for Lyida was more than the "strength" issue and I believe it is. My thoughts on Stephenie in relation to Lydia is that it was made clear to us that Lydia is highly regarded by some people on that tribe and she is valued because she did provide them with food. Stephenie made a comment after Lydia caught the minnows that they don't need the fishing gear when they have this. The "tone" did not seem genuine. Stephenie. I feel, had more issue with Lydia than the "weak" card; I think Stephenie is concerned about Lydia's value but that remains to be seen.
Jamie Again, Jamie's edit is entirely built around Stephenie. "Nobody plays as well as Stephenie While I see Jamie lasting longer than some other members of his tribe, his editing is one dimensional and it is solely about Stephenie NOT prevailing At some point, this story has to reach a conclusion and with the editing job done on Stephenie, it appears Jamie will fail in this battle
Brianna - Yes, Brianna who? Considering the first two episodes gave us nothing about Brianna, it is fair to say she is not winning this game. Interesting that Brianna was not only part of any boot discussions, she was not even mentioned as a boot to the viewers Mind you, I do not read the voting confessionals and Insider remarks (I read only what is brought in here) but if she was a boot contender or part of the strategy, she was not an important enough character to be shown during the process
At this point in time, Stephenie, Brian, Rafe and Gary have significant character development; how it unfolds remains to be seen. Lydia was most definitely highlighted as well but her situation dictated it; we need to see what happens when she doesn't have an issue with going.
Nakum Character Development
Nakum was obviously not developed as much because they were safe. We had development in the first episode from them and the next time they go to Tribal Council, we will have a much better picture of them. Therefore, just because someone on this tribe was not seen that much does not necessarily mean anything...
I had made mention after the first episode (and some of you stated the same thing) that there is an aura of a woman winning this season and I do still feel this way; I say this under Nakum because I'm not sure about Yaxha's women yet except that I think Stephenie does very well but logic dictates she doesn't win
Danni While there were remarks made in the first episode that Danni was not significantly seen, I had noted that visually she was extremely visible; now we see Danni in more of her glory
I will re-visit a quote she made in Episode One
Danni....surprised at the guys but women tend to have a little more endurance but the guys carried a lot of the load in the beginning” (then men) at TC
With all the hoopla revolving around her mid challenge gossip, that carried over into Yaxha, Danni's character is being embellished. While we did not see much of her at her tribe, we got to see her "causing a disturbance" (per Gary) and her awareness of Nakum vs. Yaxha (her confessional about Stephenie)
At this early point, things may be developing for Danni; what remains to be seen now if this is not just a storyline in terms of Gary If Danni is shown now OTHER than just to "out Gary" (which is mainly Gary's storyline) I would hazard a guess that Danni could potentially claim victory
Brooke Brooke was hardly shown this episode but that may not mean anything as realistically there was no reason to showcase her. There is nothing to add but nothing greatly concerns me about her.
Margaret As we discussed first episode, Margaret was extremely visible because the situation dictated it This week, she was relegated more to the background which is not necessarily a bad thing and, in fact, may be very positive for her. She did give us a good tribe dynamic confessional about the emotional toll.... there may be a hint that Nurse Margaret is, however, allowing the emotional toll to navigate her. We saw Margaret still firmly planted by Blake; and at least Judd's thoughts on Blake. I hope Margaret isn't "guilty by association"
Recall Gary's statement: "...can't get emotional in this game"
Margaret discusses the emotional toll this game is taking, she may be too heavily invested in that part.
Cindy Like Brooke, she was put on the backburner which means nothing for the second episode. Both Brooke and Cindy will give us more answers the next time Nakum is highligted more fully.
Bobby Jon Bobby was clearly stuck in the background and regardless of the drama that Nakum has had to deal with, Bobby could have been shown more He hasn't been and that does not bode well for him at all. The only item that I took notice of was his assisting Blake after the reward challenge It was not necessary to show that but I do believe that Mark Burnett is fond of Bobby and in light of his probably vulnerable standing wants everyone to remember that he is a good guy
Brandon Brandon is interesting. In terms of character development, not much complexity came out but he is central to what is going on at Nakum much like Rafe's confessionals but he is central visually Snippets of Brandon were important to the progression of the story and whenever something happened Mark Burnett made it very clear to US that Brandon "was observing". Confessional of "manning up", listening to Judd complain about Blake, winning his segment of the IC with his shoving the flag in the ground, etc. Brandon is important to Nakum, it remains to be seen if he is important to the game but I find his character extremely interesting
Judd One may not like Judd, but one remembers Judd Again, I see many "takes" on his character, some of you do not like his reaction about Blake. I do think the editing this week was made to develop his character and not necessarily in a negative way Judd's "I want to be the hero" may have sounded petty but the editing did show Blake almost acting fine during the challenges, regardless of the fact that Blake legitimately is sick, Blake doing well at challenges, confessing to trying to stay competitive did, in fact possibly validate Judd's confessionals. Even those who were "down" on Judd, Mark Burnett made it clear to show us him analytically winning the IC and raising the idol with a group hug being "the hero"
Blake As already stated, Blake is sick, Blake is well, Blake is sick, Blake his well. If his character was meant to be defined, why not show him discussing in both episodes his vulnerability as it relates to tribal dynamics Blake did "man up" but as a player, he is going nowhere. Again, I don't see any longevity with Blake.
At this point, Blake and Bobby Jon have done nothing character wise for me to feel that they will be around much longer. Danni's "endurance" Ep. 1 confessional still plays heavy on my mind that a Nakum woman may endure over all and we need to see if Margaret is going to be developed further than just "Blake's nurse" Judd and Brandon are certainly being editing more complex and Brooke and Cindy need another episode to see where they may be going
Fun Stuff
Big spider shown immediately at Nakum and later in episode....
Gary: "A tarantula jumped on my arm" (Danni perhaps?)
Bobby Jon vs. Stephenie with Bobby Jon AGAIN getting the short end of the stick. A small confessional about paying rent at
Tribal Council and the only item of significance thereafter was his helping Blake after the RC along with Jeff at the RC "Bobby Jon trying to hang on" (as we know from the past)
Stephenie knocking Bobby "It's Bobby Jon, he is so damn serious"
Yet over at Nakum, positive comment on Stephenie:
Danni: "Stephenie we know is an amazing athlete............"
If you notice also in both challenges, Stephenie was extremely visualand Bobby Jon (except for when he was actively competing) was not. We even saw Stephenie "coaching" Rafe at the RC.
Jeff: Jeff's comment about four days without water taking it's toll was made right when Rafe was failing at the challenge Manipulation to "soften" Rafe's failure at RC?
Jeff"Brianna can't hang on" (during RC)
Lydia "I'm not ready to go (Gary)
Steph"I can sustain on corn/water until I win a food challenge (foreshadowing?)
Jamie"Better to be diversified like we are" (Diversity highlighted and family highlighted; their boot discussions were not even on the same page)

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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
09-26-05, 02:35 PM (EST)

67. "Yaxha's vote"

LAST EDITED ON 09-26-05 AT 02:48 PM (EST)
Very good analysis as alsways VS.
I think in the last episode the most important editing choice was to leave out what happened after Lydia spoke to Gary, hoping to save herself. Did she continue making the rounds and pleaded with the other members or did Gary take it on himself to convince the others? Why wasn't it shown?
The best reason I can come up with is that they didn't want to show how much leadership Gary has in the tribe. If Lydia spoke to other members, then Gary may have no real power, but if he gathered some tribe members and spoke out for her, then we would have seen all of the alliance and who is the leader.
Which is it? Maybe watching next episode will answer that question. Will Lydia thank her tribe for saving her or will it be done discreetly only to Gary? If it is the latter then I'm sure Gary makes it to the merge (Unless there is a switch).

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Booted 156 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
09-26-05, 04:34 PM (EST)

68. "RE: Jon's thoughts on Ep. 2"

VS:
Excellent post. One observation that I would like to post (and I went back and checked the votes for the past). It is very rare that is a person receives votes at one tribal council that they receive votes at the next. Usually they become more active at camp at rallying support. I think it will be a help to Lydia's character to see how she develops this next show.
Boot Ed

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
09-26-05, 04:59 PM (EST)

69. "RE: Jon's thoughts on Ep. 2"

VS, great observations as usual.
I've really been wondering about the Stephenie and Bobby Jon edits -- i.e., if, as returning players, they are subject to standard editing patterns or if something else is going on.
I especially find it odd that MB seems to have abandoned BJ totally as compared to Stephenie. BJ was invited back because he was popular (not as popular as Stephenie, but...). If he's leaving soon, I'm thinking he should be getting more confessionals, not less -- in the sense that MB would want to play him up during his time on the show, even if his performance wasn't all that thrilling.
For a first-time player, I'd say BJ's editing would portend an early departure, but I wonder if the normal editing "rules" apply to him and Steph this time around.

Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
09-28-05, 08:08 AM (EST)

70. "RE: Jon's thoughts on Ep. 2"

michel - Yes, we were not privy to Lydia making the rounds much like the gap between Stephenie in danger to being part of a boot discussion with Gary, Amy and so forth. The editing only wished to show the important aspects that Stephenie needs to be on her toes and the audience to know that she IS vulnerable and that Lydia was targeted and who rallied for her (Brian's character development)and also her character building. Since she was shown "pleading her case" to Gary, this may also have assisted in embellishing Gary's character as well which is why I don't see Gary leaving yet.
booted, good observation on the voting situation and one you should keep an eye on for any patterns. I don't think Lydia is leaving us yet due to the character portrayal and, in fact, I still believe Amy is a short term character. First, she received her introduction last week to the audience and obviously this week she is going to be shown due to her injury Second, what we saw in terms of editing did not reveal her to be integral to the dynamics of the tribe Amy was "part" of the discussions and agreed to Lydia only after she was basically told to do so. To me, she is a fringe character who unfortunately is also getting hurt and there has been NO character development even though she was shown to us.
One may then question why Brianna is not a contender for a short term visit and Brianna remains to be seen. The fact that Brianna was not shown AT ALL in a very apparent mixed up tribe regarding who should stay/go, makes me question that she would go next. Obviously, if this episode showcases Brianna like it did with Morgan, she would be a contender as well.
BR - nice to see you as always BJ and Steph's edit should be different absolutely. Due to the major contrast between the two edits, I *assume* that Stephenie will end up a longer term player in comparison to Bobby Jon. However, that does not necessarily mean Bobby Jon will be the next boot candidate from Nakum or even the one after that.
You are correct about Bobby Jon needing "more" before he leaves which suggests that we will see a rise in his arc when Nakum is ready to eliminate him (and at this time, I don't think he would be the next boot from Nakum anyway)

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
09-30-05, 12:54 PM (EST)

72. "RE: Jon's thoughts on Ep. 2"

I should have re-read what I wrote and bolded it more; it may have gotten my attention more at voting time.
One may then question why Brianna is not a contender for a short term visit and Brianna remains to be seen. The fact that Brianna was not shown AT ALL in a very apparent mixed up tribe regarding who should stay/go, makes me question that she would go next. Obviously, if this episode showcases Brianna like it did with Morgan, she would be a contender as well.
Take note forehead
I think I may stick with long term projections instead of joining in on those weekly boots; the editing speaks for itself lol. I like looking for the winner instead
The Character Development
Nakum
What were we meant to see this week that changed completely from any other viewing?
Cindy and Margaret received manipulative dips in their character. Now, some viewers may think there was nothing wrong in what they did or said and, in fact, some of the men behaved rather childish. The intent, however, was NOT to be realistic that the men could be wrong, it was to show Margaret and Cindy on the "outside looking in"
There were quite a few strategically placed visuals of the men reacting to Cindy (and moreso Margaret) yet Danni and Brooke were completely left out with regard to THEIR opinion. The men's discussion and looks about the shelter/Margaret and the monkey/Cindys would have been completely discounted if we got confessional from the other women that Margaret's instructions were valid or that Cindy's observations were interesting.
These Nakum dynamics were nothing but an effort to start showing the discord and that Margaret and Cindy may play a part.
In fact, Margaret was Blake's nurse and Blake also stayed behind with Margaret and Cindy regarding the crocodiles. One would think Blake would have stated that Margaret was trying assist and so forth Interestingly enough, they even showed Blake's face during the tent making which would be slightly unkind since Blake was nursed by Margaret.

Cindy was originally on the potential low list in light of the fact it appeared she may be more comfortable in another element which we were finally able to see. The Nakum visit also showed that Bobby, Brandon, Judd, Danni are comfortable with each other. I am suggesting that Brooke is probably as well because Danni and Brooke often are around each other in various settings.
Bobby Jon: This thing is supposed to be fun and can’t tell a grown man what to do Ironic statement in light of Stephenie stating before that Bobby Jon is so serious
Judd: She is taking on the Mother Hen role.............
JuddZookeeper here, Dr. Doolittle.....talking about monkeys lost
The brunt of the insults came from Judd but we know Bobby was not happy with Margaret. We saw no confessionals from anyone else regarding these two; only some visuals from the other men.
These two situations were extremely edited to know exactly who is bothered by Cindy and Margaret. The general concept was to show that they are both getting a vulnerability turn to their edit; this is not necessarily a bad thing.
Nakum at the Reward Challenge
Again, I am noticing with frequent regularity that Danni is shown consistently in visuals. She did not have any truly “meaningful” confessionals (on regarding her strong tribe and no reason why they shouldn’t win the challenge and the other about the war paint being right up her alley) in the context of “strategy” but I have been keeping a proverbial “eye” on her due to the fact that she originally stated that women have more endurance and this ties in with a main theme so I have been diligent in observations of Danni since last week I mentioned that she may be the one who prevails this season There is also much going on with her and a member of Yaxha (no, not Gary)
Brooke, the caller was interesting since we have not seen much of her (her one confessional was about the heat) but I have seen her near or about Danni a lot and it may be safe to assume these two have a nice female relationship (especially in light of Cindy and Margaret’s characters) and Brooke was in the first episode with Danni, Judd and Brandon; there is no reason to see that would change.
The hugs Big big hugs amongst Brandon, BJ and Judd (perhaps Brandon has now softened up to BJ; they have been seen together more)
Judd a true “character” Again, Judd is shown a lot truly because of the “character” This will always be a problem for editing longevity since Mark Burnett makes the most of these people. Judd is working though and he is always near and around a main core group but like most “characters” the attributes that make this person such as “character” is usually cause for their own undoing
Brandon Brandon again is not someone who has an “in your face” edit but he is ALWAYS there. His confessionals are relevant about the tribe and the conditions and have been very consistent from the first episode.
Bobby Jon A warning sign Brownroach? The Bobby Jon emergence has started. What an interesting contrast from last season. Bobby Jon seemed to have no problem with Jolanda yet we see one with Margaret. Didn’t Jolanda tell the grown men what to do? We are now starting to see a little more of Bobby Jon which we need to keep an eye on and this is about the woman who took care of him also. We are seeing a little tarnish on that halo Bobby has had in the past
”I’m not used to winning; it felt good (warning signals ahead, this coupled with Danni’s confessional about seeing no reason why they shouldn’t win another along with the tribe talk of how well they are doing is NOT a good sign for them)
Blake Although Blake’s “illness” was the crux of his face time, I took particular notice during the Immunity challenge of various visuals of Blake close up, again, looking very exhausted Blake also did stay behind with Margaret and Cindy and while there was no confessional support by Blake for Margaret; the shot of Blake during the tirade about Margaret seemed edited in
We were fairly inundated with confessionals from all from Nakum but Blake clearly is not getting much of character development In light of what Mark Burnett has done with Morgan and Brianna thus far, again, I have to presume there is no point in developing him if he were to be around.
Editing Tweaks
We know that Mark Burnet changes certain editing to keep an element of surprise as well as relating to the theme and the players.
What is interesting is now how we may compare Nakum to Yaxha’s edit. Both Morgan and Brianna were developed ONLY during their boot episodes whereas vulnerability was shown earlier on Lydia and last night, Amy Last night MB clearly designed to develop Cindy and Margaret in a vulnerable light; where Blake, again was barely shown. Could we then now consider that this means they are here a bit longer whereas Blake who has not been developed at all will only get his “due” when he leaves?
Character development is different than face time. Blake has had a lot of face time but solely because of the events that happened; this did not have anything to do with developing his character I have seen nothing to change my mind since the first episode that Blake will be with us.

Yaxha
Stephenie again getting full face time A lot of investment is going into Stephenie; again note that we are seeing chinks in her armor which actually, again, is not a bad thing for long term players. If Stephenie was meant to be everything that she thinks she is then I would say that she is not a long term player We know that Mark Burnett does not pigeon hole his winners; he needs us to see “both sides” of this person.
Stephenie: “We were totally in the lead.... big cluster of mess!” and “I can’t do it again (regarding the losing, the ankle, etc.) and “Why can’t once I be on a great tribe” and “I can’t be on a losing streak anymore”
”I just wanted to win"
to which Lydia states: ”So close”
Foreshadowing??
Again, though, logic dictates she would not win this game but it is suggestive that Stephenie gets very close but “no cigar”
In conjunction with this, I’ve noticed a pattern between her and Danni that was very escalated last night
Jeff: “Steph and Danni getting into it”
Jeff: “Steph and Danni mixing it up again”
Along with this, both these women are shown quite a lot at the challenges visually and it is no secret that both are very good athletes. Danni has already told us that she is aware that Stephenie is an amazing athlete. Like some past shows, this repetitive show case of two people that seem to be parallel may often indicate an upcoming situation that entails these two characters - will they go to head to head?
Rafe is never far behind Stephenie. When Stephenie was discussing the food, he was sitting right behind her. Rafe’s pep talk to Stephenie about “staying positive” Stephenie and Rafe were together at the RC.......
Stephenie to Rafe “Follow me”
It certainly seems that Rafe is indeed following Stephenie; there was also a very playful and close aura during the termite portion. Stephenie is obviously very comfortable with Rafe and Rafe certainly seems to have gravitated towards Stephenie as well
Both Stephenie and Rafe’s edit have remained consistent. Stephenie we are seeing from a completely personal viewpoint of the game; her PERSONAL quest. Rafe is showing us the tribe and the events as a key narrator and Yaxha cheerleader; both of these edits thus far are suggestive of longevity.
Brian Brian last week received quite a few nods of approval for the editing showed that he was very savvy as well as being the champion for someone who was shown to be well regarded (Lydia) I’m sure everyone noticed that subtle shift in his editing This week his confessionals and attitude was scented with some arrogance
Brian That was 100% me!” and “If Lydia went next, I wouldn’t throw a big fit about it, I’ll do anything to make sure it’s going my way” (not to mention the slight condescending tone to Lydia of being proud of her when we know he doesn’t think Lydia had anything to do with it)
Brian got shifted on us; we are NOT meant to root for him after this week He has shown us in only a few minutes that he is arrogant and that his being such a dear person to Lydia was a farce. Last night’s shift clearly paved the way that Brian will not be an end player
Lydia Quite a lot of face time from Lydia and a lot of confessionals. Mark Burnett is investing quite a lot of time into Lydia as well which should not be a surprise as we discussed. As early as the first minutes, Lydia is shown as the workhouse and the “little engine that could”
”I don’t deserve to go” Unfortunately, however, being deserving does not necessarily play into this game
”I want to be a star out there, I don’t want to be on the chopping block again”
Lydia is another great character Mark Burnett is going to invest time in her considering how hard she is trying (as opposed to last season) by showing her work ethic, her fighting to be considered valuable and upbeat attitude "Your are in paradise"
If Lydia continues to get the "loving edit" then end of the game player is not in her cards; we need to see those developments where SHE shows us (not Brianna telling us) that Lydia has other sides to her.
Jamie Jamie doesn’t say much but everything he discusses is completely relevant to the game Again, Jamie’s edit intrigues me. Mark Burnett is not softening what he says but somehow his words and actions are validated thus taking some of the sting out it Jamie is a hard character to decipher so at this stage, he appears to be someone that may last long enough but not get near the end. We still need to recall his personal battle about Stephenie and this is where he may end up leaving
Gary got downsized a bit last night. Until and unless the “lie” situation is relevant, there is no point in “beating that dead horse” Gary is still integral to the dynamics of his tribe; he is clearly in a relationship with Stephenie and Amy and therefore Rafe
”You can have all the heart in the world but if you can’t hang, you lose
Also, I note that Amy made a point of letting Gary know she was okay and when Amy talked at Tribal Council about not making a mistake she shifted her body as to direct that to Gary.
If Gary’s storyline about his “lie” is furthered and it crosses Danni’s path again, this may be his problem; that and the clear indication that he is a very strong player in his tribe
Amy Mark Burnett is going to give Amy her due Well deserved also The editors made it hit home again and again that Amy is not like last season. I still believe Amy is more of a fringe player but she certainly deserves a positive edit, if not a short one
Amy: “I have no outdoor experience but I can hack it for 39 days; I will not give up” and “”I’m good to go” and “I need to make them know I’ll be alright”
This was probably Amy’s crowning glory; I still don’t see a long term player in her
Fun Stuff
At the RC clearly Yax has too many chiefs and not enough Indians (Gary calling yet Stephenie and Brian both clearly trying to direct traffic about the tent)
Cindy “I know they are out there even if we can’t see them” (quotes like this are fun to ponder if double meaning)
Yaxha women at the water Completely irrelevant scene; it was purely designed to show Brianna awkward and not social
Danni at the end of RC Slow motion shot focused on her with her hand raised in the air and Bobby Jon at IC handing idol to her
Jeff at TC “Voting based solely on physical strength can be risky
Events Around the Corner?
Jeff’s warning that Yaxha may be making a mistake in solely voting out the weak players (potential foreshadowing that they are in danger come mental challenge)
The constant Nakum win thoughts and Yaxha loss thoughts positively is overflowing with foreshadowing that Nakum faces an upcoming loss
Somewhere down the line Stephenie and Danni are headed for some type of opponent situations
Potential groupings Stephenie and Rafe are always together. Stephenie and Gary consult with one another. Amy clearly defers to Gary. Jamie and Lydia truly like each other and Brian made it known his designs are self serving. The men at Nakum except for Blake are together a lot and Danni is consistently with them. Brooke by virtue of the commonalities with Danni suggests her included in this also.
The editing curve of Margaret, Cindy, Brian and Bobby Jon (this is opposed to Amy’s face time as the EVENTS dictated this should happen)
At this episode, I am writing a reminder to myself that the person Mark Burnett wants to show as the winner is NOT one dimensional but any negative connotations about this person is solely designed to add an element of vulnerability for audience questioning (Tom lends perfect example) Additionally, those highlighted with negative aspects are those that Mark Burnett is showing so the audience may look forward to their loss (Obviously Katie, others are Fairplay, Jerri and the like) and if someone looks too good to be true then they probably are and probably would not win either (Rupert naturally and last season Bobby Jon and Stephenie)

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Whole Lotta Rosie 104 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
09-30-05, 01:50 PM (EST)

73. "RE: Jon's thoughts on Ep. 2"

VS excellent job as always. Based on the boot patterns this year, Blake does appear to be in the hot seat.
Danni is really getting a good edit. Not a ton of confessionals, but we see here often and usually positively.
Brandon: Live on the edge a little , then a quick cut to Danni jumping in to the croc infested lake..
JP during the IC.
Everybody’s tired, cut to Danni drinking water and looking tired 114 degrees, cut to Danni coming out determined.
In constrast; to Steph no time for a rest
Danni and Steph going at at it. Good Clean Contact
Danni has the (height) advantage over Stephanie.
Could Steph, the greatest female athelete the game has seen, met her match?
Even when she was bonked in the head, Danni was shown to handle it with humor.
Other fun stuff.
During the RC
Steph to Gary I’m I going the right way.
Margret and Brooke Anything between us. No, but walk fast.
Before the IC
Lydia and Brian I’m scared of you. You should be.

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DRONES 615 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
10-01-05, 10:30 AM (EST)

78. "RE: Jon's thoughts on Ep. 2"

Great job VS.
After 3weeks I'm having a very hard time figuring this season out. I just haven't seen enough from some of these people to make an informed opinion...yet, so I'm going to stick with what has caught my eye, and ear thus far
Steph is not being edited the same this time around. The lovable loser moniker is beginning to wear thin. Her commennts about not eating ants and termites, plus her facial experesions of the same do not speak well for her. She is very aware that her position on this tribe is precarious. Most of her confesions seem to be about herself, and when she did talk about her tribe it was very negative and she found a way to relate it back to herself. The minute I heard her say paraphrasing that She wanted to be a on a winning tribe for once, I immediately thought, Feel sorry for yourself much?.
On top of that she is also not being shown as the strongest female out there this time.
BJ, like Steph, is not being given the same edit this time around. Contrary to last season, where his strenght and determination where showcased, he is being shown as oft injured, somewhat whining and on the losing end of one on one battles.
Four people that I'm going to keep a close eye on.
Lydia is very intriguing to me. She has a great attitude and plays hard. She is also very aware of how she is viewed by her tribe. Her lasting long in this game is going be tied directly to how her tribe performs in IC's. If her tribe continues to lose, which I doubt, then she will become a victim of her tribe voting out the "physically weakest". The editing of her has been as a try hard player who just can't overcome her own physical limitations, yet she hasn't just rolled over, and with some help from her friends, a couple of strong male players, hmmm...does that sound familiar, she has remained in this game.
Brian is a sneaky one isn't he His edit could be viewed in one of two ways, as either a Fairplay or a Hatch. So far, I see him as a Hatch. Lots of snarky comments in confessionals, yet I found myself chuckling. If EPMB wanted him to be negative I thing there would be plenty of material for him in those confesionals. I haven't heard much about hime from the other players, so we are left with his confessionals and editing to see what kind of player he is.
Jamie, is very aware of what is going on all around him.
He is already viewed as one of his tribes strongest players. I agree with VS that Jamie is intriguing. Like Brian, he is shown as playing the game, yet I don't view this as being a bad edit.
Danni, is the one player who triggered my raddar the most so far. She is right in her element with the physical part of this game. Not much from her yet, other than to let us know that she is in this game and can hang with anyone. Jiffy's comments about her and Steph especially caught my attention. Would we have seen these comments, coupled with the outcome of those two going head to head, if Danni were not to outlast Steph? Steph as the strongest women to ever play is being unseated by Danni.
Others players to keep an eye on. Gary, will his lie come back to haunt him? Danni outing him isn't what peaked my curiosity, it was her comment about quarterbacks not being that atheletic, or something to that effect. He's seen as a leader of his tribe, yet they have lost 4-5 challanges and he was beaten one on one by a doorman.
Brandon has been hiding in the background, while Rafe has had a number of early confesionals.
I like Amy but she isn't long for this game. I can't remember who it was from last season that hurt his ankle then essential told his tribe to vote him out, but Amy wasn't meant to be shown as a contrast to that, as it was put front and center for us at TC.
Margaret has been now labeled by EPMB as the mother hen. Not good, not good at all. Cindy's character also took a bit of a dip as well. It will be interesting when they go to TC again.
Judd, is a character that I'm having a really hard time with him. He was the hero in ep 2 IC, but that seems like such a long time ago.
Blake after 3 ep is still being focused on for his health. He isn't quiting though and wants to win for his tribe. Once again this is EPMB hammering home how these people are not like those quiters from last season.
Brooke so far is a hanger on. She could be someone to keep an eye on as these people have won this game twice. I can't tell if the editing is being held back on her or if she is just that boring.
Is there already a split at Nakum? How long can Lydia hold on if Yaxha continues to go to TC?
VS, your last paragraph nailed it on the head, and I'd like to go one step farther. EPMB likes to tweak things from season to season as to avoid being predictable, so watch for a twist. Remember that last years winning strategy is not going to be this years, so look out for some betrayals this season.

DRONES

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Loquatrix 640 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
09-30-05, 07:11 PM (EST)

74. "Wheee!"

Do I get a cookie for my prediction from Week One, a little ways upthread?
Brooke
...She's a "caller" - doing the map reading, calling out information. I would expect her to be the caller in any situation where players are blindfolded and need to be directed hither and thither, as she is quite authoritative and apparently perceived not to be a physical person as she's the one left to carry the torch in the Immunity Challenge...
Last night was a fun episode! Lots to talk about. I'll hope to get back here to spill my "non-spoiled" impressions before the weekend is out. For right now, I shall content myself with saying it was impossible for EPMB to effectively misdirect us on the boot once the episode started airing, although he gave it his best shot with Amy and her foot -- it was just obvious that Brianna was "it" the minute she showed up in a confessional, because we've had no reason to pay any attention to her in the past.
Clearly it was her boot episode as soon as the editors HAD to include footage of this uninteresting girl.

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oncebitten 145 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
09-30-05, 07:43 PM (EST)

75. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

LAST EDITED ON 09-30-05 AT 07:50 PM (EST)
Don't know how reliable this is, but I thought I would post it to see what everyones thoughts are:
From bretzky29ca at http://p085.ezboard.com/fsurvivorsucksfrm2.showMessageRange?topicID=18637.topic&start=21&stop=34
"I laugh at all these so called spoilers, or opinion. even though i do not know the boot list from now until the final 4, i do know through personal resources, that the winner of the game is danni, 2nd is morgan, as after week 6, they have a competiton from all the people who have been eliminated. Morgan wins it. so anyways morgan comes 2nd, judd comes 3rd, steph comes 4th. this top 4 is definitily these 4 people, for the rest, i am not certain where they finish"

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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
09-30-05, 08:36 PM (EST)

76. "Emy's thoughts on Ep 3"

oneebitten~~I always take these predictions with a grain of salt...but this thread is probably not the best place for your post...this is a editing thread not really a boot order claims thread. But it can be posted in another thread in spoilers.
WOW ep. 3 was interesting!! I'm thinking after the episode that Amy and Cindy stick around longer than I originally thought and I like them and hope they do.
I also think that Nakum may be a L tribe under Nash theory--like Pagong/Ulong a tribe without a leader and doesn't want them. So Margaret may be in a little bit of trouble trying to be a leader, but I still think she has longevity...but I will need to see what happens after the twist.
After Ep. 3 The Alliances seem to be:
Nakum
BJ
Brandon
Judd
Brooke
Danni
BJ is definitely helped by becoming a member of the Canoe 4 alliance (now Canoe 5) but I still don't see him as a long term player, the further he will go is early jury imho.
Out of the Loop
Blake
Cindy
Margaret
Blake I think is the most vulnerable..VS is right, he's seen all the time, but we know nothing about him but he is still sick. I don't think the twist will really help his standing..everyone will know he is a sick boy and he is an easy boot for the new tribes (imho the next time Blake goes to TC he's a goner)
Cindy and Margaret--after next week, we'll see where they end up
Yaxha--more interesting
We really have some mini-alliances here and something interesting comes out of this imo
Jamie-Lydia--they are aligned and like each other
Gary-Amy--they seem to be aligned and likely will go with Jamie/Lydia
Steph-Rafe--VS is right, he is Steph's shadow...I agree from their narrator roles, they both go far, but from editing they both get close but not to the end both in F5/F4??
Brian--is the odd many out here now...he seems to be with Jamie/Lydia and/or Steph/Rage but has no real connection and his negative edit is getting into high gear and I expect it to continue into Ep. 4 and 5...there is a "rumor" he goes out "colorfully" in Ep. 5...I think this "rumor" may come true...but it really depends on the twist and who ends up where and in what combo of Nakum/Yaxha...

Things that made me go hmmmm or hahahahahah
The references to Steph v. Danni...remember Steph v. Jenn in Palau...ultimately Jenn went further...will Danni do the same..she def. has an edit to go quite far.
Jamie's comment on Brianna not being pretty....he's a snark!! I love it
Again Jiffy said to Yaxha after RC loss...I got nothing for you Yaxha and this time the camera went to Steph then to Brian, Rafe and Steph walking out of the challenge
Ants again shown with the big leaves before going to Yaxha..there sure are a lot of bugs in this show....and they are usually shown when Yaxha is
That snake at TC after Steph voted....

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Witless 84 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
10-01-05, 12:21 PM (EST)

79. "RE: Emy's thoughts on Ep 3"

>
>That snake at TC after Steph
>voted....
According to Survivor Phoenix, Steph is a backstabber this time around and is very unpopular.
At the moment, I am more interested in figuring out who the howler monkey is. I don't think it's coincidence that we have a howler monkey lost in the jungle, calling for his brothers who aren't answering him, the week before there is a tribal switch. Someone is going to be cut off from an alliance and be lost, but who?

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Bravehart 264 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
10-01-05, 02:41 AM (EST)

77. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala/Amy"

Wow...what great very indepth analysis to all...especially Veruca Salt! Way too much for me to absorb....No memory for it...but a great read!
Did anyone notice that Amy had said she wouldn't quit no matter what!!!!.....2 weeks in a row....why are we hearing that?

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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
10-01-05, 03:18 PM (EST)

80. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala/Amy"

LAST EDITED ON 10-01-05 AT 03:27 PM (EST)
Very good analysis again VS.
I'd like to point out that Brian's edit reminds me a lot of Chris' in Vanuatu. The way he enthusiastically claimed the change of the TC votes was very much the same in tone and attitude as many of Chris' confessionnals. Also, saving Lydia, even though it was done differently, reminded me of Chris telling Sarge it wasn't time to get rid of Rory.
And as far as categorizing the player's edit, let's not forget this is only week 3. At this point last year, Tom was still being portrayed as larger than life who would crash the same way Rupert did. Only in the later part of the series did we see Tom's vulnerability. There is still plenty of time to turn someone's edit around.

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applejack93 288 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
10-02-05, 08:27 PM (EST)

82. "Music and ep. 3"

These thoughts are coming to you all a little late, simply because I missed the first broadcast and had to wait for the repeat!
Anyway, several things were happening again in the music this week. First, by now the challenge theme is nicely established, and that it hardly differs at all from past seasons. We also have to realise that anything that happens in the challenge is immediately reflected in the music, meaning that little if no insight can be gained out of the music revolving around the challenge - as it is merely a reflection of events.
Secondly, I am noticing a distinct division of instruments that allow us to see 'positive' and 'negative' cricumstance. The Marimba/Glockenspiel/Xylophone/Congas are used whenever EPMB wants us to feel bemused, positive, fond or some other such emotion towards a person. One case in Ep. 3 was Lydia's 'American Beauty'-style music that occured when we saw her working before everyone else got up. I get the feeling EPMB wants us to really love Lydia, but the quirky-factor (largely displayed by the Marimba) in the music that surrounds her suggests to me that she is more deeper than just 'likeable' - VS, maybe is this is the answer you were looking for with regard to Lydia? Maybe this is her second dimension?
THe 'negative' instruments have appeared to be anything woodwind - flute, pan-flute, Clarinet, bottle-top. THe composer is really capitalising on making these instruments sound like threatening parts of nature. For example, the pan-flute (or flute maybe?) often performs what I like to call 'wolf-howls' because they actually sound like a wolf howling - sounds sinister to me. The flute, aslo, will be doing trills to the point of growls - something that has always indicated danger, something sinister, evil, threatening etc. And, for all you Judd fans out there, I hate to say it but the music is NOT making him look good. Every time Judd spoke in ep. 3 there was this dark, threatening, sinister, underscore which was completely dominated by wolf-howls in the woodwind section. If you ask me, the music alone made me HATE judd last night - and I think if it continues in this way we may see him become a villain.
The other thing I really noticed was that Yaxha was only getting slightly sinister music after they lost the IC. Before this, Yaxha only had postive, quirky, fun-loving themes backing their segments. Even when there was conflict between Brianna and Lydia, the music was too quirky to be considered negative. Nakum, on the other hand, seemed to have a good mixture - with some more serious and sinister themes creeping in behind scenarios as mundane as the monkeys and the shelter building. Personally, I think this reflects each tribes ability in the game. I DO think a Nakum will win it all, and for editing reasons I DO think it will be a Nakum woman. The music suggests that Nakum has their heads more in the game.
The music surrounding Amy, Steph and Lydia when they were bathing in the water (with Brianna just watching on) was very fun-loving - I think they have a nice relationsship with each other.
small tidbits
One thing on Margaret - there was a massive roll on the Timpanis and other drums after Margaret said "Do I think it's right? No answer." Is this the threatening side of Margaret we've wanted to see all along?
Music volume lowered when Danni said "I'm caught up" in RC.
Silence in underscore when Steph said "I've been in worse situations" - are there more to come?

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
10-03-05, 07:26 AM (EST)

83. "RE: Music and ep. 3"

Excellent work, applejack! I'm lovin' your take on the music and what a great editing tool! I knew there was a reason I was NOT liking Judd, now I know it's the subliminal music! Ha! He's definately going to be a villain! Wouldn't surprise me in the least if it's him this week that the "Betray or Not to Betray" could be referring to.
Thanks so much for doing this!
fp

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applejack93 288 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
10-04-05, 02:41 AM (EST)

86. "RE: Music and ep. 3"

Why thank you, FP! The music is far from conclusive but it certainly is a subliminal way of telling us what to think!

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
10-03-05, 07:33 AM (EST)

84. "RE: Music and ep. 3"

Great comments everyone!! Although we have agreed there are some there this season that are a little "hard to read" I think there is a lot of editing juice flowing this season and I think quite a few of us stated immediately after the first episode that a woman winner (and a Nakum woman) for that matter has given off a vibe of perhaps winning. For me personally, I have already stated after the season started that Danni's endurance comment and the visual way she is constantly being presented is giving me pause for thought that she may be the one and I'm glad to see that I'm not imagining this "editing" battle that seems to be lurking between her and Stephenie.
aj - the music observations are wonderful; please keep them coming. I tried honing in on the music last week but I got so distracted with everything else; my mind can only retain so much Very interesting about Judd's music. I am curious to see how it progresses. If you can pay particular note to Jamie and Danni's music, I would love to hear what it entails.
Loquatrix - you certainly do get brownie points Wonderful call!
DRONES, Rosie, michel and emydi - as always, great insights. It seems that the characters are becoming more defined as each episode is shown. michel you are correct, there is plenty of time for the editing which is why I like looking long term for the most part. The main difference I found between the comparison you made between Brian and Chris is that Brian (after saving someone we were supposed to like and we assumed he was extremely fond, i.e. Lydia) immediately the next week did not care what would then happen to her. We are meant to like Lydia which is one of the reasons why Brian came off positive the week before last. To then immediately have his broadcast of not caring if she was next to go was designed for the audience to view him distastefully. While Chris also was proud of himself for his strategic play, it was not over someone that he was "close" with nor someone that MB made sure we are supposed to like. This is probably the reason why it did not "strike" me in the same vein.
With regard to Amy's commenting on not quitting...... I still do not believe Amy has any longevity. I will say that after last season, Mark Burnett would be proud of ANYONE who refused to give up and the irony over another problematic ankle is almost too good to pass up Regardless how Amy fares, I think her words are more in context with the situations last season AND the theme of endurance
The fun in editing is that it can always change but there are some patterns that do not stray too much. There are some players that I have already decided cannot win this game, one in particular who hit me the minute the first episode ended and there are a couple of others that still need to be fleshed out more.
Braveheart, I hope you continue to post and read; editing discussion of long term results is as only as good as the partipants

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applejack93 288 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
10-04-05, 02:39 AM (EST)

85. "RE: Music and ep. 3"

VS, I went back and watched Danni and Jamie's confessionals for this episode, as well as Brooke's cos up till now I have not been able to figure her out.
For Brooke, I'm afraid the music doesn't do her much justice. Her confessional this week was just before they began their 'croc swim', and the music underscoring it was really just a tension-builder to forewarn us of the impending danger. What worries me here is that maybe what she says is not worth 'changing tune' for, so to speak. If all she can say is overshadowed by the activities around her, what does that say about her influence on the game?
Danni was slightly more interesting however her talk about the face paint and her football background was a follow-up on the events we saw just prior to it, so the music didn't present anything much different to the circumstance surrounding it. What WAS positive was that her confessional coincided with and extremely tribal and percussive underscore. The music was extremely rhythmic, with minimal tuned instruments, and to tell you the truth the lack of melody made me see Danni very competitively. It sounded almost threatening (in a sportive, not personal way) and I think it certainly reinforced her power. I am only worried that the music was a product of circumstance, not a reflection of Danni's ability.
Jamie, on the other hand, seemed to be more the Yaxha version of Judd - but alot less menacing. The percussion section played similar low, rumbling beats however the 'wolf-howls' heard in Judd's confessionals weren't as apparent. I think maybe the music tells us to see Jamie as threatening but not villanous. Certainly the music combined with the boot outcome (Brianna) showed us that Jamie is quite capable of getting his own way. Once more, however, there is a flip side to this music as Yaxha only seems to be getting 'negative' or at least less-positive underscoring when they HAVE to go to Tribal council - maybe Jamie only appears this way because someone has to?
Anyway, that's what I noticed. I agree that from an editing standpoint - Danni comes across as very promising. I'm with you in picking her.

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King Will 49 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
10-07-05, 02:49 PM (EST)

87. "Post Ep4- a start with NuNakum"

Well I sat and waited for this thread to get into the meat of the editing post switch but cannot wait any longer.
NuNakum
Steph-
Continues to get a good edit and her theme's of 1) wanting to in at any cost were again highlighted 2) valuing strength were continued. It was a major coup for her and Jamie to recruit Judd, but it seemed like she got to tell the story, rather than Jamie. She is a star, He is a best supporting actor at best. This is despite the fact her was likely as or more responsible for Judd's swap as her. Prognosis- Long term safe
Jamie-
more face time still not a lot of character development always worrisome but maybe there is time for his story to develop in the future now. Short term safe.
Lydia-
was on the fringes of things this week despite being in a winning tribe. Everyone "likes" her (read: doesn't consider her a threat and are willing to put up with her). I find her annoying so this may be coloring my view. But given the deal with Judd, she can only be saved by Margaret "volunteering" for the boot next. Not safe, but could continue to sneak through based on this edit.
Rafe-
Interesting guy, may be guy who undoes the yaxha alliance. He portrayed a likeable, and follows the tribe, but obviously doesn't want to vote off nice people. Kindof getting an "Ian edit" that way.
Judd-
Well he's a great Ox- strong and dumb and follows wher he's led.
Will react violently to the traitor talk, he votes with who he likes and probably only had an alliance with Brandon over on NuYaxha. edited to be a pawn- and will likely be a mergetime boot still. Short term safe.
Cindy-
Invisible- no chance of being a major person, likely a throwaway boot either soon or more likely in the post merge pagong. connected too closely with the soon to be dead Margaret.
A nobody who could go now or later but will be an uneventful boot whenever she goes.
Margaret-
Promo suggests she goes to town on Judd, not a way to hang around. Got to see her strategizing for the first time- not a good sign for longevity. Not smart enough to pull Judd away from the Steph and Jamie thing before he flipped. Only applied logic to the situation after he'd flipped. Walked off and made a plan with the girls leaving Judd out... She just can't get past her innate likes and dislikes of people. She will be bitter next ep and likely peaking as far as her game. Prognosis: most likely to go home from NuNakum
But she'll probably be safe for a week as the strategic thinkers over at NuYaxha thow a challnge to boot Brian Gary and Amy.

More later on Nu Yaxha and would love to hear what others think.
King will

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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
10-07-05, 08:58 PM (EST)

88. "RE: Post Ep4- a start with NuNakum"

I'll jump in and say that for the first time in 2 seasons, Stephenie was shown making a smart and decisive move. Last season, the only strategy we saw was going to BJ to vote out Jolanda but BJ wasn't interrested at all. The only other moves she made was flip flopping her TC votes and pleading to BJ to save her against Ibrehem. Telling Jamie to let Judd come to them was smart. So they want us to know she has learned something. That could lead to F4 but she has a lot of work left.
Judd made a play to get an alliance across tribal lines and it could work but his edit leads us to believe he will come up short, booted soon after merge.
For the Judd, Jamie and Steph alliance to hold, Steph and Jamie will have to boot Lydia soon. Maybe Judd can be convinced to get rid of Margaret first but if they want his strength, they'll need to boot one of their own.
New Yaxha is much more straightforward in my opinion. Afterall we were given a boot order by Blake and BJ and there is no reaon to believe it won't be followed. Brian and Amy are going next and Gary makes the merge only if New Yaxha doesn't go once more to TC.

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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
10-08-05, 10:52 AM (EST)

90. "RE: Post Ep4- a start with NuNakum"

Afterall we were given a boot order by Blake and BJ and there is no reaon to believe it won't be followed. Brian and Amy are going next and Gary makes the merge only if New Yaxha doesn't go once more to TC.
That's why I think this will NO way be the order see Libra Rising's thread!!

more on my editing thoughts later!!

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
10-08-05, 07:27 AM (EST)

89. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

I really want to say that I just LOVE this thread! I love everyone's take on things and SO many questions are answered for me here! AJ, just love the music interpretation, seems like you are dead on....Brooke, when she was talking the music was already leading into the next event, it was as if she didn't count!....WOW, we could have gambled on Brooke just with that comment!
But I have to ask the biggest question. How can we definitively tell the difference between a lack of editing that may be the case for an early boot(they just don't care to develope the character as they are not long for the show and their story is not as important to the flow of the game) and a lack of editing that may be the case for an end game player(as there is plenty of time to develope their character later)??? Some are now thinking that Blake is receiving a similar edit to Danni...albeit a different music edit! How do we know that he's not going to be perceived as the star of the show when he perserveres over illness, near death, tribal swaps, 114 degree weather to win the whole thing???? Perhaps they start with the worst edit of the show and gradually improve his editing until the end when it is clear that he will be the lone survivor....after all, this show is Survivor and so far Blake has survived. This is all a very hypothetical scenario and it is not necessarily how I feel, just quite perplexing to me!
Okay, now onto another topic....clearly the reason for a bootee's boot becomes obvious during their boot episode. But in prior survivors there has been many hints/clues as to the logic behind a particular boot, therefore making the boot choices more predictable. This season, the logic behind Morgan's boot became evident during her boot ep, same for Brianna, same for Brook. I do think now, that the swap is behind us, we should start to be able to logically figure the boot order out. Clearly EPMB has tried to hold off exposing alliances as much as he can....for example, I was not aware that the core alliance over at Nakum was BJ, Danni, Brandon, and Brooke until yesterday when Corvis told me, and proved it with a post boot interview from Brooke. So where I had questioned Brandon's loyalty to his fellow old Nakum's, now I know that he's likely to hold onto them, as he was previously included in their pact! BUT, we did not get that from the editing of the show.
Well, Gary is quite the interesting player. Seg is really milking his semi-celebrity status, so much so that I think many are too eager to vote for him as the boot....I just think he's getting all of the hype because they indeed want to milk that status. I see his story arc peeking very very soon. We have heard for three weeks now regarding his lie and him denying his past. He firmly stated in this ep that that's his strategy and he's sticking to it.
This past IC was tailor made for a professional quarterback....he could have broken the last tile, which was the farthest distance probably much quicker than any of his tribe mates, and he didn't even try. While Yaxha won the challenge, I think that this will really urk Danni, she knows he's a quaterback, yet he'd rather deny it and deny his talents for the betterment of the team.....I see her sitting on this one, but the next time Danni sees Gary slacking, and when they end up losing a challenge and going to TC and Gary's slacking being a contributing factor to the loss, she's going to explode. I foresee this maybe happening in the ep: Big Mouth, Big Ball, Big Trouble. Gary's "strategy" will definately lead to his demise, imo.
Another thing that was interesting to me was how they voted in the forum knowing that who they voted for would get some kind of reward. Note that Gary was the only one that got 2 rewards, that told me that his old Yaxha tribe really liked/valued him. Too bad there was a swap!
Judd, well he's definately a villain of the show. Margaret has gotten her dander up and imo is playing a bit too emotionally, I think this could lead to her demise. Cindy is still somewhat perplexing and hidden, is that because she'll be a premerge boot or is it because she'll be an end game player with plenty of time to develop her later?
Lydia has cruised through and I see her making the merge. With this weeks previews, she's dancing and calling herself the queen...she's riding high on something. Steph has shown us that she is capable of strategizing and she and Jamie were the ones that orchestrated the vote at Nakum...this bodes very well for her. Rafe does seem to be her little pet in this ep, his strategy must be to attach himself and pledge his loyalty to Steph, let's see if this will work out for him.
The same can be said for BJ over at Yaxha. He's shown pulling Blake into their old Nakum alliance and doing a little strategizing this ep, I'd say that bodes well for BJ. Amy and Brian both recognize the dire straits that they are in now, will be fun to see how they try and thwart the target off of their backs.
Brandon, another hidden one, imo, is it because he's an early boot, or an end game player? So many questions for me this time around! Would love to hear thoughts on all of these new turn of events!

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applejack93 288 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
10-08-05, 10:55 AM (EST)

91. "Music and ep. 4"

LAST EDITED ON 10-08-05 AT 11:19 AM (EST)
FP, when Brooke went I was so proud - whilst I didn't have her as my boot choice, I was so proud that some of my hard work actually paid off!!
VS, I find it really flattering that my thoughts are of use. I think I'm even willing to set out a music rule -
TWO RULES FOR SURVIVOR: GUATEMALA
TUNED PERCUSSSION = POSTITIVE
WOODWIND = NEGATIVE
Note: postive ranges anywhere from happy to quirky. Negative ranges anywhere from evil to threatening (game style).
Well, this season is certainly my favourite in a long time (probably because of the distinct lack of boot lists!). I must say that the opening of the episode certainly foreshadowed how eventful it would be. Did you notice the threatening theme at the beginning? The flutes were growling, there were sudden drum rolls. It was like there was s storm building - it was really a sound scape that established where the episode was heading!
Firstly to Judd's confessional - the 'villain' softened a bit this episode but the drums and flute 'wolf howls' and growls are definately STILL present, but more subtle. It is interesting that the episode in which Judd really did something villainous the music seemed to back down a little - why? I don't know. Maybe, as Veruca said, all characters (except JFP cos he was just a b^%tard) need more than one dimension if they are to have a real impact on this game? Judd is still a villain, in my eyes, but maybe this wasn't his most villainous act yet?
The first time we saw Nakum I thought they were going crazy! All the whinging about the heat was accompanied by echoed wind blows and rain sticks in the underscore - all very disconcerting stuff when you hear it, maybe Nakum's separation is a good thing if when they were together they were going crazy...
Now, Jamie (you were interested in him, VS) still is rather threatening in terms of music - like Judd. HOWEVER, whilst the woodwind section was doing the 'wolf howls' etc. it was a follow on from the crocodile section at the beginning. I am not saying, as with Brooke, that Jamie is therefore superfluous to the game - it's just that with a season THIS unpredictable we must be careful when instances like this arrive. If someone is having a confessional and the music has a continuity with the events just prior or after - what they are saying must be taken with a grain of salt. If what they had to say was super important the composer would have begun a new theme.
Now challenges - as I said last week the music only reflects what is occuring in the challenge. However, this still has a buffer effect on the players in shot at the time. FOr instance, Danni is shown in a positive light when she ate the apple because eating the apple is a postive experience - one reflected in the MUSIC by the Marimba playing a little section.
The music that began when Margaret questioned Gary about the confessional was interesting in that it flowed directly into AMy's confessional about killing Gary. Now, because of this I do not think Amy will get the chance to find out if Gary really is an NFL quarterback. In fact, a number of AMy's confessionals were underscored by music that we heard in the events surrounding the confessional, which I don't think bodes well for her as it didn't for Brooke. I hazard to put a life-span on AMy, though, because already she has surpassed our expectations and I believe she has the ability to do it some more.
Now, one example of when the composers made us sit up and take notice came with Danni's ONLY confessional (I think thats a good sign). WHen nuYaxha returned to camp the music was in compound time - a different way of grouping the beats that isn't often heard in survivor. However this new idea was immediately dropped when Danni began speaking (I can't even remember what she spoke about I was too intent on listening to the music). The underscore changed to long, sustained undertones - firstly so that it didn't take away from what she was saying, secondly to underline the importance of it, and thirdly so that we would NOTICE her - can anyone remember what she talked about? I just can't. I am growing more in the opinion that Danni is LONG for the game.
When Jamie and steph were talking on top of the pyramid the music changed to quite a powerful force. There was a long, slow undertone with a definate beat that made me think that these two are a force to be reckoned with. THEY must be watched, I think they are going to do some big things.
Interestingly, when Judd joined their conversation so did high-pitched squeals on some woodwind instrument. To tell you the truth it made me think that alliance was a bit flimsy (it reminded me of the film 'psycho' for some reason). Anyway, the changes made when Judd joined made me think that the alliance is flimsy. I DON'T think it will last and as we know - alliances revealed do not succeed.
Now, someone I stood up and took notice of this episode was Rafe - did anyone notice that the music underscoring his confessional about the way things would go at TC? It was something I cannot for the life of me say I have ever heard before in survivor. It sounded, to me, like a human voice (or maybe a brass instrument) doing very low harmonic drones (an effect whereby several notes come from the one sound - usually the lower note is dominant and you don't even realise you're hearing the harmonic overtones). Anyway, they gave Rafe a kind of calm, almost zen-like aura. I think Rafe will play this game individually, I don't think he is steph's pawn - I think he is very correctly doing what is best for him. The music says Rafe is a calm individual, very aware and very capable of getting HIMSELF places, even if it means latching onto steph and Jamie for now.
Interesting side note on Rafe - the music died down in the IC when he said "I've got it" - will Rafe get it?
Anyway, I really thought my posts were irrelevant until Brooke went, but now I see that what I'm saying about the music IS relevant. Stuff the 'spoilers' God knows they haven't helped any.

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
10-08-05, 12:28 PM (EST)

92. "RE: Music and ep. 4"

aj, keep up the wonderful work with the music; it defintely sets the "tone" of the events playing out as well as what MB and company wish to convey about the characters
I will be back later to break down the episode but I wanted to address fp because editing IS hard to pin down. The editing DOES change but there are some constants that I have noted over the seasons and I will just repeat what I said in an earlier post
This may not assist in those who want to figure out the weekly boot; I don't spend much time on that (and I really don't pay attention to spoilers regarding same since it really doesn't have any relevance to what my goal is and it clouds issues.)
There have been too many instances where one fits the spoiler to speculation and when we insert a round peg in a square hole it doesn't fit (though one tries to make it fit)
The person that is the winner is edited three dimensionally Negative connotations about this person is solely designed to add an element of vulnerability so the audience will question whether they are in danger. Also keep in mind, the winner is ALSO questioned as a threat and often times when you watch and say to yourself "Why isn't anyone getting rid of this person?" that question is a good sign. Also, those highlighted with a HEAVY negative aspect are those that Mark Burnett is showing so the audience may look forward to their demise and could potentially be a final two foil (not every final two partner is a majorly negative person but I will say the final two person is NOT seen in a better light as the winner) and if someone looks too good to be true then they are and shouldn't win.
As far as weekly situations fp, there is a definite issue with those with no edit and those being built upon and you mention the "Blake" issue.
I still do not believe Blake is a long term player. Those of you who discuss with me know that I won't change my mind after I made up my mind Blake's entire role was being sick. If I were to believe he was a long term player, then I believe we would have heard from him about his vulnerability concerns and more about how he felt about his situation. We saw none of this whatsoever. If not for the switch, I still think he would have been booted.
Be that as it may, I will be back to get into this further but the scene with Bobby Jon and Blake was HEAVILY edited and I agree that Blake's confessional of his proposed boot order in Survivor editing won't happen that way.
I still am of the mindset that Blake may go next despite logic dictating he won't. Regardless my speculations don't concentrate on weekly eliminations but those who are short term and long term players.
Brandon for example was practically non existent this episode, however, prior to this we saw him heavily narrate. Taking a backseat now is not necessarily negative. However, being completely invisible (other than actual events occurring) and then suddenly being shown is not a very good editing sign either which is what I am seeing with Blake.
Those also who are shown visually to me are ones that I look for to last longer as well. Blake was NEVER shown unless it was the event occurring whereas I keep seeing Danni EVERYWHERE and in shots that she shouldn't even be the shot.
Example of this, after the immunity challenge we see Amy and Gary touch fists. This was a perfect shot as these two were vulnerable going into this challenge (along with Brian but the fist touching is just a good camera moment) So WHY would they then show Danni, of all people, in slow motion saying "Thank you" and looking up.
That was NOT necessary. She wasn't even the final challenge winner (it was Brandon and Brandon was the one BJ handed the idol)
In looking at the editing, check to see what is shown and whether it was NECESSARY. Same with Lydia. Did we REALLY need to see her twice cheering for her tribe? We are meant to focus on Lydia, see Lydia and like Lydia. How many times have people cheered on the side and not shown. Lydia is MEANT to be shown less we forget her for the moment. Danni is consistently shown despite not having much to say right now.
I'll be back with the episode breakdown with the fun stuff

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
10-08-05, 01:14 PM (EST)

94. "RE: Music and ep. 4"

Thanks so much for the response, VS! You are so good at this editing stuff, while I see myself better suited at vidcap deciphering. I definately think your take on things is far more clear than most everyone's out here. I do see what you are saying and I definately am following you. Thanks so much!
fp

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
10-08-05, 01:00 PM (EST)

93. "RE: Music and ep. 4"

Your hard work is most definately paying off, AJ!!!!
Keep up the great work! I love it!
fp

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applejack93 288 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
10-09-05, 08:46 AM (EST)

97. "for BR"

LAST EDITED ON 10-10-05 AT 01:22 AM (EST)
Sorry to start a new post for this, but I didn't know if you'd notice it, BR. Emy just pointed me to the musical point you noted in Cowboyroos thread.
THat section of the episode was VERY tense indeed - Amy was talking about how vulnerable she is - it was almost as though this was the time when the dust was settling after the switch. Blake and BJ's discussion DID have very ominous music behind it - I think this is either because:
a) the rest of that section was tense anyway
b) what they were saying should be noted seriously.
I'm inclined to lean to the former because that section of the episode was generally tense - I think the music merely reflected that. The survivors suddenly HAD to talk strategy because they were thrown into a vulnerable situation. Blakes discussion had an underscore that seemed to flow throughout that section.
However - one of my posts (up a bit) talked about how the music at the challenges, whilst only reflecting what's going on in the challenge, has a buffer effect on the survivors anyway? The same is true here - the music was ominous, tense and serious (because it had to be), which rubs off on any conversations had over the top of it.
I don't think Blakes plans are going to pan out because there wasn't enough musical emphasis on it (no pauses, new motifs etc.). Though if it stood out to you, it's not something to be discarded.

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frisky 11695 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
10-09-05, 02:43 AM (EST)

95. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

I would just like to add one observation about Lydia that I haven't seen mentioned yet.
Lydia's first noteworthy appearance came in episode one when we saw her gushing over her hero Steph: "You're the reason I'm here!!"
There's got to be some significance to this, or we wouldn't have seen it. Some possibilities:
1) it's just part of the MB-JP Steph love
2) Steph will be responsible for Lydia's ouster, lending irony to the statement "You're the reason I'm here!!"
3) Lydia will be responsible for Steph's ouster
4) Lydia comes to hate Steph's guts, leading to either a Steph or Lydia outster
Flashforward 4 episodes later. Now I don't know about Lydia, but I'm freakin' sick of Stuffamee. I'd almost rather see Pukert at this point...almost. Steph's edit has been positive, other than the whining, but for the most part she's hanging out with the guys and pretty much calling the shots as we saw in episode 3.
So in the caps for ep 4, we see Lydia doing her "I'm the Queen" dance. Thanks to Jiffy's voiceover, everyone seems to think this is some sort of victory celebration or wacky dance a la Wanda.
When I first saw this preview, the first thing that came to my mind was this:
We all remember Mother Africa's meltdown in S3, when she knelt at the feet of Queen Lindsay.
When I saw Lydia dancing around and going "I'm the queen!, I picked up a clear PING on my snarkymeter. Could she be making fun of Steph?

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applejack93 288 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
10-09-05, 07:43 AM (EST)

96. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

Frisky, I'm not sure that what Lydia said HAS to be taken and capitalised on by EPMB. If every throw-away line is some sort of foreshasowing or issue that has to be cleared up later on, the editors would NEVER have enough time to fit it in. Lydia's comment may just have been to give her a background.
The fact that it stands out to you is probably a sign that it IS an important issue, but I don't count on it. There are just so many comments that could mean something that trying to sort out which ones are important is very difficult.
Who knows, really - the editing is so confusing this season we don't know what's coming next...

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
10-09-05, 09:45 AM (EST)

98. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

This episode (as all switch episodes) is good to help flesh out those one is unsure about because a switch affects EVERY player out there by either making them more vulnerable or making them more secure.
Again, this thread's purpose had always been about the nuances of editing for those who would WIN this game so riddles and clues for each week only help those who are attempting to guess who is gone each week.
What did YOU notice the most?
Fun Quotes and Observations
Jamie: "Ow, big fish got me" (Steph perhaps?)
Interesting how Judd, Margaret, Gary and Amy deserved the picnic. The hardest working or most annoying to to the others?
Judd and the howler monkey Recall Cindy stating the monkey is lost
Cindy as the most pride with her tribe (very interesting and note to FP - THIS is the difference with no edit or a potentially cloaked player - Cindy would NOT be the first person I would assume would be the selected person, therefore THIS could attest to her emergence(Couple that with...
Cindy"Can't win the game worrying about people's feelings" (is when you question if this person will emerge, I still don't look at her winning this game, however, again, fp, this would be the subtle difference between someone EMERGING as opposed to someone getting their "due" and then getting booted)
Brian "If this is a numbers game, they could pick us off"
Amy "I look at Gary.......we are so deccimated here, deccimated, gone!" and "This new world of mine concerns me, 4 of them 3 of us, they're going to pick us off one by one"
The following shots of Bobby, Blake, Brandon, Danni then follow, who else noted the wink Danni showed in her shot in the water?
The slow motion ending of Amy and Gary touching fists (being safe will do to that to you; regardless that Amy's confessional about Gary was thrown in, this confessional was just a statement in light of the events, Amy and Gary appear close; if anything, Brian should worry more)
Margaret"I don't feel safe at all" and "Major turnover, game is on!"
Amy "If I don't do well in the challenge, I'm gone" Note, that this was visually edit, the shots of those watching her after her discussion about her ankle are purely designed to make the audience feel that everyone there HAS noticed her ankle as much as she is worrying they are
Judd "I like where I'm sitting" "I didn't feel the love with my old tribe, get out of my jungle" Always general clues that this person won't make the end game
Blake "....4 on 3, we have the order... Amy, Brian, Gary out the door" Again, usually a signal that this is NOT how it will play out
A very palpable absence of Brian throughout all this regarding vulnerability. The focus was entirely on Amy's ankle and Gary's football past. Why did we not hear MORE from Brian about his vulnerability except for the initial confessional which HAD to be done by him since he was the only member there from his own tribe?
Judd"Here, I'm a big gun, feel like King Kong...." (This gives us further insight on Judd, like the other week when he wanted to be the hero, Judd is insecure, this is first and foremost why he essentially handed over the destruction of his old tribe to Stephenie and company. He was PICKED by these others, it made him feel good and important. Playing emotionally does not work well
Strange visuals involving Margaret and Jamie We saw one interesting scene where the view came from Jamie looking down at the one group and the view came from Margaret looking up at the other group (May be something pivotal that may occur with these two)
In addition to that shot, at the Immunity Challenge when Judd did not opt out of the challenge, the visual shot was of Jamie and Margaret seemingly looking at each other
Margaret to Judd "They are going to pick us off one by one..... they'll go Brooke, Cindy, Margaret then Judd" (Something may upset that order as well as listing tends to never come to fruition)
Lydia to Rafe "You, me, Jamie and Steph, right?" and "I'm not I got Judd's vote yet" (Less anyone believe Lydia is not playing the game, think again, Lydia knows exactly how to play this game with the what she has and is doing a wonderful job(
Lydia at the challenge "Go Steph, get mad, do it girl" Again, I will repeat myself, we saw Lydia not once but TWICE rallying her group; this is completely unnecessary and was only done so the audience can get a look further at this little marvel named Lydia. Lydia, in actuality, is a rather good choice for any of her tribe to try to take to far in the game, little risk for her to win immunity and a big argument can be made that she was carried along. Lydia was on our radar early on, it remains to be seen whether she has the final two spot or a huge edit because of "character"
Rafe was a perfect decoy during the Steph and Jamie grabbing at Judd. Rafe was already deemed to have planted himself firmly with Steph and that is reinforced each episode. Don't let Rafe's passivity fool you though, I firmly believe that he is integral to some of the decisions being made by Stephenie
Stories front and center or backburner
Jamie and Stephenie's truce There was too much invested in Jamie's negativity about Stephenie, I'm not falling into any trap that they are on the "same side" There should still be a a fallout at some point with these two.
Gary's football story It just won't die will it It is slowly coming to a head because at this point, the two contenders in this matchup were Danni and Gary. Presumably for this to be shown in almost every episode and the main story for Gary does not bode well. If he gets by one more episode and this is not about Gary and the lie, he has a better chance but if the next episode focuses entirely on Gary and football, he won't be long term since there isn't anything else to progress with.
Amy's ankle Like Gary, focus has turned entirely to her vulerability about her ankle. If there is NOTHING else with Amy except her ankle, the lovely "I won't quit" comments are just a homage to Amy being a strong woman; if one is slotted to a one dimensional role, then there is a problem
The Bobby and Blake scene This was a most annoying and intriguing scene. The actions they were doing aside , it appeared so heavily edit that I could hardly make out what they were saying.
Blake "My loyalty is to you, Brandon and Danni. We can be as nice as we can, win every comp, wipe them out and then we figure it out between the four of us is fine by me"
Bobby "Done, make sure we tell Danni. (Then a close up of Bobby's face) "Make sure we tell Danni and Brandon that Amy is gone"
Very strange scene and as stated, heavily chopped. BJ's comment about telling Danni was the exact comment immediately following and adding Brandon into the comment. Presumably Blake approached Bobby Jon because Blake did most of the talking. We already knew over at Nakum that Brandon, Bobby Jon and Danni were more closely knit. Blake was either sick or hanging back with Margaret so it is fair to assume that Blake did the initiation of this conversation
The order Blake proposes probably won't happen that way much like the order that was outlined by Margaret.
Again, I have not liked Blake's edit from the first episode, period. I'm very stubborn in those I see being there for the duration and Blake has never been one of them.
Brandon Most definitely not as seen this episode which doesn't concern me at this point. Big narrator at his old tribe with only one comment pre switch is only suggestive to me that his role in the next episode is not integral to being vulnerable.
Blake Suddenly, Blake is visible? Ask yourselves why was this shown with Bobby and why didn't we see anything from Danni and Brandon in this regard? More than likely is because Blake's role in this is the shakiest one
Danni visually Again, from episode one Danni has been clearly shown to us visually and had an EXTREMELY relevant quote about women and endurance. Why show Danni last at the immunity challenge when Amy, Brian and Gary were the vulnerable ones and Brandon "pulled" out the victory? Why show a progression of three young, good looking men then a last shot of Danni, lounging in the water with a wink?
These are the kind of shots to look for and whether it is part of the progression or seemingly put in there for a reason!

Jeff"Tribal lines and loyalty will shift but remember every time you shift, you make it harder to trust."
I mentioned early on to think like Stephenie I still believe that. Stephenie is managing the team regardless of her black cloud She was warned about booting weaker players by Jeff, we will see if the next visit to TC, she changes her course of action.
I can't help you with weekly picks, I can suggest this order
of Cindy, Margaret and Judd won't follow and the order of Amy, Brian and Gary won't happen either.
I can only suggest at this point that Judd is there for character, Cindy may have something building (another episode is needed for her) Jamie and Stephenie are NOT finished with their feud, Gary's football story is reaching it finality as with Amy's ankle, Blake is NOT in any majority despite the numbers, suspicion falls on why Brian was not a major showing last episode aas he was just as vulnerable, Danni is still the main contender to win this season, there may be some meeting of the minds with Jamie and Margaret, Lydia is going to be milked up until the say she is booted a her character is too good and Bobby Jon may actually have learned something from last season (too soon to tell with only one "strategy talk and Blake did most of the talking with BJ sending Blake immediately to tell the others)

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Whole Lotta Rosie 104 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
10-10-05, 02:10 AM (EST)

99. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

VS, you really outdid yourself this week.
Cindy and Lydia have both confounded me this season, but you did an outstanding job of placing their edits in context with this difficult editing season.
I wanted to add a couple things about Nakum. Last week completely focused on Margaret, Judd, Jamie and Stephanie. Considering that Brooke and Lydia were the two boot choices we saw very little of the normal confessionals received by the potential target and the eventual boot. If I read Corvis’s confessional analysis correctly Lydia had zero confessionals and Brooke only one. Rafe was also out of the picture.
Jamie/Gary/Brian and now Rafe, have all been shown to have protected Lydia. Her only conflict appears to be with Steph.
There were also a couple of editing tricks played on us, which may, or may not, be important.
From Brooke’s post show interviews we discovered that Steph took an awfully long time to hit her target in the IC, but from an editing perspective it seemed that she hit her target very quickly. After EP3’s failure against Danni, was it too much to show her failing again?
Additionally, Rafe said in his insider clip that Jamie, Steph, and he, all spoke with Judd regarding the Brooke boot, this was omitted during the actual show.
Leading into last week most of the major themes were certainly set in NuNakum. While these themes are still unresolved they appear to have been placed on the back burner. This week most of themes seem to be in NuYaxha.
On to other things.
KOB has always said that it takes about four episodes to determine the factors involved with the Nash equilibrium and how it impacts Survivor. We may have received some adequate information to, at least, begin to analyze its impact.
Nakum: Judd, Margaret, Jamie, and Steph are all exhibiting leadership characteristics. While Rafe, Lydia, and Cindy appear to be followers. In a multi-leader tribe followers tend to do better. This is a positive sign for R/L/C and especially Rafe who identified his strategy as a follower in the first episode. I am still unsure who is pulling the strings in the Jamie/Steph battle, and this could prove to be important later.
Yaxha: Of the old Yaxha, Gary and Brian have definitely exhibited leadership characteristic. Gary is a natural leader, while Brian, at least, thinks he is a strategic leader. The old Nakum are a bit tougher to peg. An earlier poster described the original Nakum tribe as a leaderless tribe, this may be true, but the difference between a L-Tribe and a M-Tribe can be blurred when the tribe has faced minimal tribal councils. I have not seen anything to indicate that Danni and Brandon are being portrayed as leaders. Blake and BJ are a bit more problematic. While I agree with VS that Blake probably has no real power, because he was given the chance to announce the boot list, labels him, in MB’s mind, a leader. BJ is, most likely, a half-breed. He has the strength to be a leader, but, as the case last year, not the will. However, the Blake/BJ bathroom alliance was very odd and as a result BJ could emerge in a more defined direction.
Based on the above Yaxha is also a M-Tribe, which indicates that Amy, Danni and Brandon have the potential to do well.
With two potential M-Tribes, followers should do very well this season.
Looking forward to KOB’s comments.

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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
10-10-05, 11:39 AM (EST)

100. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

Hey guys!!
Nash Theory
Rosie, Thanks for bringing up the Nash Theory...I think it was me that said OldNakum was a L tribe without a leader like Pagong. I don't think that any of the oldNakum that moved over to NuYaxha will emerge as a leader. Brian and Gary will remain "the leaders" of NuYaxha. This will help most of the BBBD. Amy however, I think is a victim of the nos.
NuNakum is a now a multiple leader tribe M and this def. will help Cindy Rafe and Lydia. The other 4 all think they are a leader
NuNakum
Interesting insights, VS, on Margaret and Jamie. I did not catch that and I will have to look at that again. I, too, do not think Jamie and Steph is a 'real' alliance rather one for the moment and Margaret will be Jamie's out. NO way the order goes LYDIA-CINDY-MARGARET-JUDD. And with Judd's edit and confessionals, I see him going first. He could possibly be a F2 foil, but I see Brian a better candidate for that.
Speaking of F2 foils, I found your comment, VS, that Lydia could be a F2 foil, interesting. She does not have a negative edit like Katie did, but I could see Steph or Jamie wanting her around as a F2 partner to use the "I carried her argument." However, I don't see either Jamie or Steph as getting a winner's edit...so I do not see Lydia being the F2 foil. I see her edit more as a Caryn edit from last season (albeit less negative) and she is used until the last possible moment. F6-F5 time?
Right now, the only person I see getting anything close to a winner's edit on NuNakum is Cindy because of her confessionals (thanks Corvis) but she has been so hidden (as opposed to Danni who has been winking and sashaying all over the place) that I too need more time to look at her edit. If nothing else, I think Cindy,by default, has become the Darrah/Jenn quiet one that goes far...whether she has what it takes to win....I don't think so yet but let's wait and see on Cindy.
Rafe...poor Rafe..he is a good playa but all the editing to this point says he gets "close but no cigar" He is getting Ian's edit from last season. He will be seen as too likeable and I see him as the F3 boot.
At the beginning, I thought Margaret could be a winner...but after Ep. 4...I don't see it ...she's too emotional. She will be a major playa before the merge in getting out Judd (with Jamie) but I see them both..Margaret and Jamie...being victims of nos. (and Steph "A big fish got me!!') when the merge comes around and will be F10 F9 F8 boots.
Judd...stupid insecure man lost the game with his bone head move. He is also definitely the "monkey" and Cindy's comment on how he is lost and "looking for love" which he thinks he has now received from Jamie and Steph....will ultimately kick him in the A$$ when he gets booted by them and he remains "lost."
NuYaxha
Ok, the PP alliance says its AMY-BRIAN-GARY...it won't happen that way...but I think the first one will...I now see Amy getting the "Angie" edit from last season and she will go out gracefully soon. I just don't see how they turn it around so early and Amy becomes a victim of the nos. post switch
Gary..I agree VS...one more ep. about the football lie and he's toast. I think Brian, faced with elimination will go to Danni and get them to oust Gary before him. Then Brian will be the only Yaxha left on Yaxha. How would he get further if they have to go to TC a third time before the merge? VS--question for you--is Brian's lack of shown vulnerability in Ep. 4 bc he is a hidden first boot of BAG or because he really isn't vulnerable?. My thinking it's the latter. But without a production change (either another switch or a double boot ep. where Brian gets immunity like Ibe did last season) I don't know how he'll do it. I could see Brian def. as F2 foil material.
Blake--I too still see him as not a long term player. His edit reminds me SO much of Ibe's last year...even down to his "alliance" mate in BJ. Will BJ be the downfall of Blake like he was to Ibe? I don't think so, bc BJ has Br and Danni with him. Rather, I think Blake may be the victim of a production change and somehow Brian gets immunity and BBBD have to choose which one to cut loose. As the original Nakum alliance, Blake was on the outside, I see BJ/BR/D picking Blake to go. Later right before merge F12--F11 just like Ibe.
Danni...I agree, she is def. the clearest winner's edit thus far.
BJ--like Steph, I think he will go furhter than he did last time, but the others will not let either of them win....
Brandon...wow he is hidden but not getting an F2 foil's edit. I see him not as a winner either, as a woman is most likely the winner of this from the editing. But out of the men, he's the one getting a winner's edit. Will he make it to f3-f4?

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Whole Lotta Rosie 104 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
10-10-05, 01:42 PM (EST)

101. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

Emydi: regarding Nash and the ex-Nakum on Yaxha, you are correct. None of them are leaders, but since we were given Blake as the edited leader it would make sense that he could be the target of Gary and Brian at some point.
Blake as a leader makes very little sense. There have been questions in this thread, as well as others, whether Blake is even a part of the DBBB alliance, much less the leader, but that he was edited this way, and I agree with VS that is was forced, is interesting.
Speaking, again, of F2 foils, Steph should also be considered an option. I could be mixing vulnerable with negative, but I am getting more negative vibes from her this year. Also as a previous contestant, who better to go against in the final 2.

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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
10-10-05, 04:11 PM (EST)

103. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

I'm not sure...Steph and BJ are special cases with edits bc of their return....would EPMB make Steph out to be a villan/foil even if she were F2? I'm not sure...I will def. keep my eye on this.
Blake as a faux leader on NuYaxha...hmmmmm....could that be his demise? could he be the hotshot with the mouth about his life after survivor from CBS Misdirection #3?

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King Will 49 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
10-10-05, 03:53 PM (EST)

102. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

>What did YOU notice the most?
>
>Cindy as the most pride with her tribe (very >interesting and note to FP - THIS is the difference with no
>edit or a potentially cloaked player - Cindy would NOT
>be the first person I would assume would be the
>selected person, therefore THIS could attest to her emergence>(Couple that with...
>
>Cindy"Can't win the game worrying about people's >feelings" (is when you question if this person will
>emerge, I still don't look at her winning this game,
>however, again, fp, this would be the subtle difference between
>someone EMERGING as opposed to someone getting their "due" and
>then getting booted)
I disagree- they have had ample opportunity to highlight Cindy so far and she talked about Monkeys (to highlight Judd's story).
She is a bit player no more worthy of attention than Brook, Morgan, or Brianna thus far. I look at this emergence as nothing more then the setup for her going right after Margaret.
>
>Blake "....4 on 3, we have
>the order... Amy, Brian, Gary
>out the door" Again, usually
>a signal that this is
>NOT how it will play
>out
>
>A very palpable absence of Brian
>throughout all this regarding vulnerability.
> The focus was entirely
>on Amy's ankle and Gary's
>football past. Why did
>we not hear MORE from
>Brian about his vulnerability except
>for the initial confessional which
>HAD to be done by
>him since he was the
>only member there from his
>own tribe?
I still am reading Brian's edit as thinking he's in control. he is clearly outside of all the major alliances and his arrogance was not warranted. He is being setup to ge next week in an obvious villain edit (being irreligious ext week to the camera fuels this fire and makes the general audience want to see him go all the more) I predict he will exit dramatically next week by trying to manipulate the BBBDs. And Amy will be the only Yaxha to survive this tribe by default. Don't underestimate the I won't quit story- it is one of MB's favorites of late and has real power in this "toughest survivor ever".
>Strange visuals involving Margaret and Jamie
>We saw one interesting scene
>where the view came from
>Jamie looking down at the
>one group and the view
>came from Margaret looking up
>at the other group (May
>be something pivotal that may
>occur with these two)
>
>In addition to that shot, at
>the Immunity Challenge when Judd
>did not opt out of
>the challenge, the visual shot
>was of Jamie and Margaret
>seemingly looking at each other
I noticed some of this but thought it was done to show that Margaret never trusted Judd and that emotional play was her downfall. If She had approached him with the girls right off, he might have stayed true, but she excluded him from the strategy and lost him before she could "mother hen" him.
>
>I mentioned early on to think
>like Stephenie I still believe
>that. Stephenie is managing the
>team regardless of her black
>cloud She was warned
>about booting weaker players by
>Jeff, we will see if
>the next visit to TC,
>she changes her course of
>action.
>
>I can't help you with weekly
>picks, I can suggest this
>order
>of Cindy, Margaret and Judd won't
>follow and the order of
>Amy, Brian and Gary won't
>happen either.
But how about Margaret then Cindy?
Or Brian then Gary?
>
>I can only suggest at this
>point that Judd is there
>for character, Cindy may have
>something building (another episode is
>needed for her)
But that could easily just be a quick boot episode.
But Overall I agree with your assessments,
Margaret, Judd, Gary, Brian, Amy and I think Cindy are not long term prospects.
Final 4 edits are Brandon, Steph(bummer), Danni and possibly Rafe or Lydia (Double bummer). And What was said about Steph being potentially the foil for Danni rung true to me. We'll see how the next couple of weeks go. Steph has major conficts coming with a lot of people, Jamie/Judd?, Lydia, and Danni herself which could set her up very nicely as the foil.
King Will

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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
10-10-05, 06:06 PM (EST)

104. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

VS: I went back to the first post you wrote on this thread. The 3 categories of winner edits you had posted were very interesting. I tried to apply it to the players left in the game.
Who is playing as Head of Household? After Tom the father figure, Tina the mother and Ethan the brother, I see Steph trying to play it as the big sister. Not overbearing but giving advice to the rookies. No other player has been shown taking any effective leadership. Gary is afraid to show it and Judd is more like the King of household and will suffer a "coup d'état"!!
Who are the clinical players? The only ones that I think can be perceived as playing without emotions are Cindy and Dani. Brandon has shown his dislike of many players, Jaime was frustrated to have Steph on his tribe, Amy wants to show she's tough and Brian and Blake are playing on adrenaline. If Cindy stays out of the Margaret and Judd confrontation and if Dani doesn't react too much when she sees Brooke has been booted may bode well for both of them.
Who are the UTR players? RAFE. He isn't a threat and he gets along with everyone. Lydia has been on the radar since the first episode (for a completely different reason she is getting an Angie edit) but if she makes the merge, she may fall off the screen. The merge will happen with probably 6 men, maybe even 7 so that would take Lydia completely out of danger. Getting rid of her pre-merge is the best course of action for Steph since that would get rid of someone who could go a long way and solidify the pact with Judd (and Cindy maybe?). Then after merge, she lets the big boys fight it out.
So does that mean a Rafe, Dani, Steph and Cindy F4? The first three are assured of making the merge barring an injury or a tribal reshuffle but Cindy is vulnerable. If Lydia makes the merge then the final 4 will be along original tribal lines again.

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
10-10-05, 06:21 PM (EST)

105. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

WLR, emy, fp, great observations and very helpful. I always go back and rewatch after people comment so I can see what others are seeing.
King Will, glad to see you again in here, I was waiting for the rest of your observations that you said you would be back with.
Mind you, my observations are long term. When I speak about Cindy, my observation is one that may be of someone emerging. A lot of emphasis was made by people on her remark the first episode about Seabiscuit and she was sufficiently seen in the first episode; thereafter she got "bumped down" The face time we saw of her last week could simply be BECAUSE she was in danger as events dictate face time. However, there is potential she may emerge but I do not see her winning this (and ultimately that is what this thread tries to figure out)
With regard to Brian; he could very well be booted next week, I'm more inclined again to see if they have longevity and Brian was deemed in the episode where he stated he could care less about Lydia that he would not be a long term player and I still feel this way. Brian told us that as long as things go his way, he would do what he had to Therefore, he may very well opt to work on the Bobby Jon grouping to ensure he doesn't leave next which could very well backfire on him. My observations last episode were primarily that Amy and Gary were heavily featured (and EXTREMELY manipuated) as those vulnerable when Brian, however, is just as vulnerable Your thoughts that Brian thinks he is in control could very well be correct (pride before the fall eh?) though I find it hard to fathom that Brian was not confessing more to the camera that he is vulnerable (other than the initial confessional there were more of them than his group) which then could very well indicate a "surprise" to the audience so I most defintely understand your thoughts especially since the order of elimination was deemed by Blake.
Ironically, Brian knows that Amy is hurt (main Amy story) and was the catalyst in broaching the football lie (main Gary story) It would be ironic that the weapons he may have to try and eliminate one of them before him backfires.
WLR/emy - Stephenie has a lot of stuff that final two foils are made up. I wouldn't discount that whatsoever. During the whole period of time the meeting of the minds were happening over their boot discussion, the focus was mainly on "bad Judd"; at least that is what *I* took from the episode on the surface when, in fact, Stephenie *could* have been edited to look more like the "bad guy" manipulating Judd (really when you watch again, Judd seems so befuddled and such a follower though the REACTION from the audience was to dislike him for being a betrayer) We are MEANT to be very angy at Judd first and foremost.

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King Will 49 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
10-10-05, 09:26 PM (EST)

106. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

>King Will, glad to see you
>again in here, I was
>waiting for the rest of
>your observations that you said
>you would be back with.
>
Thank you, This is one of my favorite threads around here and am always eagering awaiting it during my Friday coffee break. I've lurked and occasionally posted since season 2 on and off. Glad to delurk for a while as this current employment opportunity winds down (the perils of biotech).
>Mind you, my observations are long
>term. When I speak
>about Cindy, my observation is
>one that may be of
>someone emerging. A lot
>of emphasis was made by
>people on her remark the
>first episode about Seabiscuit and
>she was sufficiently seen in
>the first episode; thereafter she
>got "bumped down" The face
>time we saw of her
>last week could simply be
>BECAUSE she was in danger
>as events dictate face time.
> However, there is potential
>she may emerge but I
>do not see her winning
>this (and ultimately that is
>what this thread tries to
>figure out)
>
That is a key difference, I think many here try to use this information to judge longevity rather than just the winner, and it can be tough with people like Cindy and Lydia and even Amy.
Without further ado,
NuYaxha
Gary-
The significant glances everytime he tells his lie are meant to convey that no one is really buying it anymore. The conflict between him and Danni is still rising but needs to climax soon.
I do think Danni is playing his game to the hilt and he is due for a finale soon.
Brian's scheming-
I never trust it when someone goes invisible for an episode. Brian will be a big part of next week in NuYaxha, this will either get him or Gary booted. I don't see anyway he can approach BBBD and not get caught out. Danni and Brandon will see through him and use that to split him from Amy and Gary. And if Blake and BJ get approached, not likely BTW, they just bring it to Danni anyway.
Whichever way it goes these guys don't last long.
Amy- I still think this entire group is off on Amy, She has been shown being strategic, strong, and vulnerable. She is possibly the best positioned to be taken in by Danni's group. MB loves the "I will persist player" and that is skewing her edit but ther is only room to drop 4/5 people before the merge at 10/9 and I see her making it based on her edit. And honestly without throwing challenges do you really think they'll lose to Steph 3 times?
Ironic thought: Wouldn't it be the ultimate irony if come merge time Cindy sides with the Yaxha tribe and Brian with the Nakum for a 5/5 tie? I don't see it happening but it would be a great bit of ironic foreshadowing based on the Yaxha/Nakum spirit leaders.
BBBD alliance- versus the world
Right now this alliance of 3 owns the game in Yaxha.
Danni is the core here, and she will be looking to pick up someone once they realize Brook is gone. Is Blake worthy?
will Brandon even consider sticking with Judd post betrayal? Could they pick up a Yaxha to fill the gaps? right now we know the least about these 4 players. Two have depth that has been hinted at in Danni and Brandon.
Blake
As many of you have noted- no depth to his character, I can't remember anyone who has be so in front of the camera and so shallowly developed. We are not mean't to care that he overcame early odds as the early quote about Margaret destroyed his pity factor even. Right now I think he'll last as he is needed by Danni, Brandon and BJ, but he will go early post merge.
Brandon I know I said I don't like people disappearing for and ep but with him it may signal a shift to longevity.
Since he wasn't really shown much I don't think he will be an overt part of the next few episodes. But don't worry- he and
Danni are unlikely to lose the control in this tribe before the merge. Look for them to suggest throwing challenges though and soon.
BJ actually had some strategy this week, and seems destined to be reunited with Steph. The interesting parallels here between the two is too much. They are both in the dominant premerge alliance on the tribes both pre and post swap. (They really may have learned something.) But while Steph is highlighted and given depth and shown all over the place, BJ fades into the background. It is extremely important for us to to figure out what this edit means for Steph: F4, foil, or even winner? But it is clear BJ is just along for the ride in a solid alliance.
Well that's it for this week, I know I'll be watching Danni, Steph, Rafe, and Brandon for clues to the winner as I'm quite sure it will be one of them and we should be able to figure it out in the next few episodes.
King Will

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DRONES 615 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
10-11-05, 05:02 AM (EST)

107. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

The problem with Amy is that she is one dimensional. Like Gary, she has a single story line and once that runs its course she will be gone.
Danni is fully aware that Gary is trying to hide who he is, yet she doesn't appear to be using that info at the moment. Her statement about Gary trying to hide his identity for whatever reason, seems to be one of amusement. Gary has been taking this hard line about his identity, and EPMB has latched onto it as a sort of curiosity.
When fleshing out these characters I think it's important to ask, other than their singular story line what have we seen from these people? If the answer is not much, then it is safe to say that we are not to be interested in them other than their particular story arc.
DRONES

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
10-11-05, 07:46 AM (EST)

108. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

LAST EDITED ON 10-11-05 AT 08:55 AM (EST)
DRONES, have been waiting for your thoughts for this week
King Will, those players like Cindy are the most frustrating for for people like myself who try to "figure" out the show through editing. I am reserving another episode or so on her since logically Cindy needed to be shown due to the events that occurred. If we start seeing more of her regardless of the events then there may be something to her.
michel - I should take your lead and go back and read now shouldn't I? The player "guidelines" that normally win through their edit could be applicable to some of those we are seeing. I NEVER like to ascertain who I see winning this until a couple of episodes in because (if you look back on prior seasons) most of the winners did not scream victory early on (Thailand and last season were probably the closest I would come to a "scream" )
The twists do help because we see how the characters are being portrayed not in their comfort zone.
As far as the "types" of players in the categories, michel, you have identified a good basis. I would even place Lydia in the UTR category because I do believe that someone can be UTR and be very visible since UTR can also be someone who is literally looked at as NO THREAT whatsoever. Lydia is completely overlooked by these contestants as a threat to their game AND many UTR players are nicely protected by another force such as Sandra had Rupert, Amber had Rob (though I dislike including that season) Jenna actually had a couple of players deflecting her along the way. Lydia is right behind Stephenie at this juncture which is a nice piggyback ride for her because Stephenie will always loom as a larger threat. Rafe has this advantage as well.
In fact there are some players there who have the "advantage" of falling into more than one category right now. While Danni appears to be playing clinically, she always has the fortune of being "overshadowed" (if you will) by three very strong threatening players on the surface. I would overlook Danni and set my sights on Brandon, Bobby and Blake before her; psychologically and without conscious, people "tend" to do that because she is a woman much like how we discussed last season that a "funny" woman can be construed as obnoxious as opposed to a "funny" man.
This episode hopefully will focus more on the tribe dynamics over at the Bobby Jon camp as I would like to hear more from those like Brandon, Bobby Jon and Danni with regard to their thoughts

(How dare my sigline be non "sigged"

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DRONES 615 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
10-12-05, 07:11 AM (EST)

111. "RE: The Players, The Game, The Editing; Survivor Guatemala"

To be perfectly honest VS, I have been having a very difficult time figuring out a lot of these people. The additions of BJ and Steph has really complicated matters. This is your basic Survivor with a twist of All Star. In a way the presence of BJ and Steph has distracted me from focusing on some the nuances of editing. I actually wasn't even aware of this until my DW pointed it out to me. She made the very simple, but profound statement, "You know honey, there are people on this show other than Steph and BJ, besides those two have an almost zero chance of winning. You're not seeing the forest for the trees."
I've been limiting myself to some of the more obvious editing stories like Gary, Amy, and to a lesser extent Blake, all of whom I feel are not long for this game.
I've also had a very strong feeling about Dani since the 2nd episode. Her editing has really triggered my radar. This, of course, doesn't mean that I believe she will win, it just speaks to me of longevity.
Some where in the middle I'm missing something. I'm going to make a point of not giving Steph and BJ much thought, or at least more than they deserve, and see if I can start to flesh out some of these other characters.
DRONES

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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
10-11-05, 07:54 AM (EST)

109. "Nash"

Rosie and Emydi thanks for starting the roots for some Nash spec this season, and VS et al great work on the editing thoughts, all good stuff! AJ I was watching Pearl Island last night and specifically listened for the music and wow, it really does tell its own story, keep up the good work.
As for me, I had to miss the 3rd episode, so even though I know what happened as far as RC, IC, and boot, I didn't get to see the pre-twist interactions. Because I am moving I have just been more distracted then normal. So while I normally would be making my Nash post now since 4 episodes have gone by, I feel that I need 1 more before I can do that. SO, the good news is, my last day of work is friday and after this weeks episode I will have time to post on Nash theory and how I think it equates to the players in this season. It is a very interesting mix indeed.

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Whole Lotta Rosie 104 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
10-11-05, 12:41 PM (EST)

110. "RE: Nash"

KOB, looking forward to your analysis.
After re-watching last episode, I just wanted to add a couple of things.
Brandon His opening confessional was dramatically different (less positive) from his confessionals in the past and while he only received one confessional, every time the camera cut to him he just looked beat. If endurance is the key theme this year, this could be considered negative. However, because he has been a narrator it is tough to distinguish whether this is a negative for Brandon, his tribe, or just a general comment about how tough it is.
Margaret For the heck of it I decided to track the individual reactions at the RC/Forum, I stopped when Margaret had eight and no one else had more than two. Combined with all the drama at the NuNakum and her pre-merge confessionals, Margaret’s face time went through the roof this episode.

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applejack93 288 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
10-12-05, 08:02 AM (EST)

112. "Interesting find on CBS site"

This is merely speculation but I found this quote from coby (Palau) on that incredibly LAME blog that the ex-survivors have - "Survivors strike back". Anyway, here's what he said:
"I also found the Bobby Jon and Blake draining the snake talk very interesting. Because as all of us Survivors know, we would only talk about stuff when doing things like THAT when we didn't want it on TV. CBS won't show us peeing!!! Well they did! So the two of you trying to play off camera...didn't! Ha ha serves you right! I also think their pee scene is just like mine and Gregg's beach talk on Palau...major alliance being formed that won't happen. I feel something wrong will go down with these 2 boys...after their semi wet hand shake, Bobby Jon kept looking straight into Blake's eyes looking for reassurance...and Blake kept looking away. We will see!"
Interesting that Coby notes they wouldn't show us scenes like this normally - why show it now? Is it because they were so DRY on alliance talk they had to scrape the bottom of the barrel to find something interesting...
Or, as I think, it's because it's integral to Blake's downfall - think about it. By showing us this scene that they wouldn't normally, they have set Blake (or BJ, for that matter) up for quite a fall when it all comes crashing down around them...
It's also interesting to see a former survivor draw editing parallells between series - and I'm glad Coby agrees with the consensus here. The boot list they outlined won't follow through... thoughts?

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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
10-12-05, 10:13 AM (EST)

113. "RE: Interesting find on CBS site"

LAST EDITED ON 10-12-05 AT 10:14 AM (EST)
AJ, as a non-survivor survivor fan who has mingled with many a survivor I might be able to shed a little light on Coby's remarks and what he meant.
Survivors are filmed everywhere they go and everything they do, that is unless you go off alone and are going on a pee break, the cameras will not follow you, they will give you that privacy. In fact, if you are going off anywhere alone you need to announce to the crew "taking a pee break" or going to the top of the pyramid to "zen out".
But any time you go in a group of 2 or more, expect the camera crew to be right there picking up the footage, afterall they don't want to miss good alliance chatter.
So survivors have found that if they want to have some "private" alliance chat they need to do so under the guise of "going to the bathroom". If BJ and Blake had truly wanted privacy, they would have left camp alone and in opposite directions and then met in a pre-arranged spot. Since the cameras were with them though, my guess is they told the crew they were going on a pee break but were followed because they left camp together.
I don't think BJ or Blake worked super hard to throw the camera crew off guard as Coby is suggesting, and then got caught discussing alliances anyway.
But I do agree that this "pee summit" is going to be very similar to the "beach talks" in that the alliance revealed will fail.

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
10-12-05, 04:59 PM (EST)

114. "RE: Interesting find on CBS site"

DRONES I feel your "pain" I will actually be relieved when Blake leaves as I have been stubborn in my quest since episode one that he is leaving.
KO, I will be looking forward to comparing notes with you regarding the Nash and editing theories
aj, I am glad that the conversation annoyed you as well I always get suspicious when one sees a conversation completely unnecessary. Why would the audience need to see a meeting of the minds between two people who I would assume would already be together in booting off the minority group? Blake's boot order obviously would not come to fruition based on past editing and stories but I question the reason that this discussion had to be shown.
Danni, Brandon, BJ and Blake are all from the same tribe. The audience already saw Amy and Gary and somewhat of Brian express their worry; isn't that enough?
Regardless, I will be glad when the fringe players are gone so we can really dig into the prevailing character.

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
10-12-05, 05:49 PM (EST)

115. "RE: Interesting find on CBS site"

LAST EDITED ON 10-12-05 AT 06:05 PM (EST)
The one possibility I will offer about that conversation (and I thought it was weird, too -- we never get any confessionals from Blake, and suddenly this?) was that it was meant to counterpoint Amy's moan about the three old Yaxhas being screwed: this was to reveal that, in fact, she would be the *first* to get screwed.
But we know from the TV Guide photo that she is still around for Ep 6, thus if Yaxha goes to TC this week there must be a change in plan. So Blake/Bobby Jon's boot order has already been rendered something that "ain't gonna happen".
I know a lot of people are saying Gary, but I somehow don't see him for this week. Also, I think "Big Mouth" in Ep 6 might refer to Gary slipping up about his past. I think Brian is a more likely boot than Gary this week, because (at least) one of the Yaxhas will have to try to stir things up and I think Brian would certainly want to. If he makes too many waves it could bump him ahead of Amy on the boot list.
Otherwise, there is a break in the Nakum alliance that sends one of them packing. From what we know right now there is no reason for this to happen, but it's not out of the question. One of them -- say, the one who is approached to flip -- could pull a Gabe Cade and appear too indecisive and thus become a target.
Ouch, my head hurts this week.
ETA: by the way, VS, can you start a new thread after tomorrow? They get unwieldy to open around the 100-post mark.

Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
10-12-05, 07:42 PM (EST)

116. "RE: Interesting find on CBS site"

BR, I'm glad you also saw the "strangeness" of that conversation; sometimes I think I see things strange when they are perfectly normal
You may be right and it could have been a counterpart to the vulnerability expressed by Amy (and Gary). My only devil's advocate argument to that is that one assumes that Danni and Brandon also discussed this by confessional or to others, Bobby Jon probably had a confessional as well and so forth.
That scene was chosen AND Blake's confessional to "solidify" it. I get bothered with things like that but I am so suspicious watching all these seasons
Your request was already in my mind lol, I was going to start the new thread after the episode!

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
10-13-05, 12:24 PM (EST)

117. "RE: Interesting find on CBS site"

That scene was chosen AND Blake's confessional to "solidify" it.
One last thought about that conversation -- I did think it was weird, but mostly because we were actually seeing Blake. The conversation itself didn't strike me as weird, even though, as you said, we would assume that D/B/B/B/ would just vote out G/A/B so there wasn't really a need to show it.
But the purpose of showing it at the time struck me as being this: the tribes had just switched. They wanted to show that there was immediate plotting at *both* camps, to create suspense for when TC came around. We found out that plans were being made at Yaxha and plans were being at Nakum before they even had the IC. That was what I got out of it.

Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
10-13-05, 02:22 PM (EST)

118. "RE: Interesting find on CBS site"

Duly noted BR The conversation was not necessarily strange which is precisely in a long winded way what I mean; but why not show Danni confessing or Brandon confessing or what have you to solidify what the audience already assumes.
What bothered me was Blake being shown in a very awkward situation in addition. (I supposed Mr. Burnett, et al may have found the situation comical and chose it purely for those purposes )
Regardless, Blake is short term which was agreed upon right after the first episode ended.
emydi took note of the irony of Brian should he try to capitalize on the two issues he can use as a tool (Gary/football and Amy/ankle) only for it to backfire on him. I guess I saw a "bit" more coming from Brian to end this episode. Gary and Amy didn't sit well with me with the overdone events last week; then again, we learn something new every season with editing.

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