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michel2 2913 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 07-26-18, 05:39 PM (EST) "Luck? Really?" Yesterday's veto episode would have been meaningless if Faysal hadn't won the competition. Odds weren't good, only 3 out of 10 for him just to get picked. Then, with the nature of the comp, we can say 1 in 6 of him winning. Combined, that means yesterday's outcome only had a 5% chance of happening. Yet it played out perfectly, forcing Faysal to choose between Hayleigh and Kaitlyn. Hilarious for sure but most likely rigged...   Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Luck? Really? Aruba 07-26-18 1    RE: Luck? Really? michel2 07-26-18 2        RE: Luck? Really? Aruba 07-28-18 3            RE: Luck? Really? michel2 07-28-18 4                RE: Luck? Really? Aruba 07-29-18 5                    RE: Luck? Really? michel2 07-29-18 6

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Aruba 2940 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 07-26-18, 08:40 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Luck? Really?" One does not have to go further back than the NHL Draft Lottery two years ago when the NJ Devils WON the lottery with only an 8% change of landing the #1 pick. They were outdone by the Philadelphia Flyers who got pick #2 with a paltry 2% chance! By comparison it makes Faysal’s 30% a gaming chance. “Luck? Really?” That’s exactly what it was...OH, that’s right...the NHL “rigged” that draft to favor the East Coast Teams. *SNORT* Oh Brother, I can hear it now...a non-US citizen will be telling the USA residents that America has always had a “favorable opinion” of the East Coast. 1 out of 6 statistically; but probability was much greater for Faysal when you factor many lame HGs sadly and pathetically will not give it their 100% effort. And then you have the inept jokes like JC and LoserStar who have a hellavu lot worse than a 1 in 6 chance of winning because they...well...SUCK. Kaitlyn and Haleigh were not putting out optimum effort because both were so sure Fasyal would save them. Yes, Sam went all out as did Faysal, but realistically he had a much better than 1 in 6 shot. IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII BURIEEEEEEEEED PAUUUUUUUL !!!!!!   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

michel2 2913 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 07-26-18, 08:53 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Luck? Really?" Your comparison to the NHL draft has ONE HUGE FLAW: Each team, individually, have low odds of winning the lottery but ONE WAS GOING TO WIN IT. So, it didn't matter whether it was the Devils, the Flyers, the Habs or any other of the teams that had a chance, one was going to get the top pick and one was going to get the 2nd pick, etc... In our case, NONE OF THE OTHER POSSIBILITIES MATTERED so the fact that the one in 20 came through to save the episode has to make any intelligent person wonder. Faysal had 5% chance going up against 95% chance for the episode to be BORING. Drink their Kool-AID all you want, I won't.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Aruba 2940 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 07-28-18, 08:25 AM (EST) 3. "RE: Luck? Really?" The NHL comparison to address your conspiracy theory is a good one. Sure, no NHL team had excellent odds of winning the draft, but every HG also had “low odds” of winning POV. Actually, there is a flaw in my comparison upon further review. Out of the 10 other HGs eligible to participate in the POV, each statistically had EQUAL odds of being selected and ultimately winning POV, and so on. As opposed to the NHL draft where the odds of winning the lottery was DIFFERENT for ALL the teams in the lottery based on the fact teams’ chances were better based on the prior season’s records. This "flaw" makes the liklihood of Faysal winning POV greater than NJ and Philly getting the two top picks! You don’t think it “mattered” to the GMs of the teams with the worst records who had BETTER odds that the top picks went to other teams with statistically worse odds of drafting higher than them? It was pure dumb-ass luck for NJ and Philadelphia plain and simple. Your oversight is your inability to see the difference between statistics and probability. We all know Faysal was gung-ho on going all out to try to win the POV fearing he could be a replacement nominee. And we all know as a fact not everyone will give optimum effort and try their hardest to win competitions. This gave Faysal a greater than your 5% statistical chance you want to orgasm over. Next July will mark the 50th Anniversary of the Apollo 11 lunar landing when the world saw the first men walk on the moon. And for half a century we’ve been subjected to silly conspiracy theorists who claim this never happened; it was staged right here on earth filmed in some studio. No doubt these whinners have been saying for the past five decades, “the world can drink its Kool-Aid all it wants, we won’t.” So, you just keep on burying Paul, Michel...you do it so entertainingly! LOL!!   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

michel2 2913 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 07-28-18, 04:00 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Luck? Really?" I see the difiference between statistics and probability and I'll give you that Faysal actually had better odds than the mere statistics suggest BUT YOU fail to see the difference between Reality (Apollo) and TV drama (SeeBS kind) Whatever the odds, the ONLY WAY the episode was going to be interesting was having Faysal (One of a dozen HG) win POV and it happened. I don't buy it.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Aruba 2940 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 07-29-18, 11:00 AM (EST) 5. "RE: Luck? Really?" What I DO see is the similarity with conspiracy theories being born as a result of someone (or somebodies) who “DON’T BUY” an occurrence. They conjure up theories mostly because they are dissatisfied or refuse to accept what occurred be it Apollo 11, Roswell NM, 9/11 terrorist attacks, Lady Di’s fatal car accident, JFK assassination, etc., etc...and yes...even what occurs on TV.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

michel2 2913 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 07-29-18, 01:06 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Luck? Really?" The failure here is that I was actually satisfied with the scripted drama. I laughed at Faysal's dilemma and was very happy seeing Kaitlyn leaving. Wrong again.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

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