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cahaya 19657 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-04-18, 10:27 PM (EST) "March Madness '18" Reserving a spot here, waiting for the March Madness bracket group invitation to be posted. I've been following college ball this fall and I'm looking forward to the big tourney!   Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: March Madness '18 kingfish 03-06-18 1  RE: March Madness '18 Bebo 03-11-18 2    In other words... cahaya 03-13-18 11  RE: March Madness '18 Molaholic 03-11-18 3  RE: March Madness '18 minitroll 03-11-18 4  RE: March Madness '18 cahaya 03-12-18 5  RE: March Madness '18 kingfish 03-12-18 6  Join the March Madness tournament! cahaya 03-12-18 7    RE: Join the March Madness tourname... Molaholic 03-12-18 8    RE: Join the March Madness tourname... kingfish 03-13-18 9        RE: Join the March Madness tourname... cahaya 03-13-18 12            RE: Join the March Madness tourname... kingfish 03-15-18 14    RE: Join the March Madness tourname... minitroll 03-13-18 10  RE: March Madness '18 Max_Headroom 03-14-18 13    RE: March Madness '18 kingfish 03-15-18 15  Day 1 bloodbath Bebo 03-15-18 16    RE: Day 1 bloodbath cahaya 03-17-18 17        RE: Day 1 bloodbath minitroll 03-17-18 18            RE: Day 1 bloodbath kingfish 03-17-18 19  Bracket busts (and oddities) cahaya 03-19-18 20    (and odds) cahaya 03-19-18 21        RE: (and odds) kingfish 03-19-18 22            RE: (and odds) cahaya 03-19-18 23                RE: (and odds) cahaya 03-23-18 24                    RE: (and odds) kingfish 03-25-18 25  The winner! cahaya 04-03-18 26  Statistical models competition cahaya 04-03-18 27

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kingfish 20242 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-06-18, 10:48 PM (EST) 1. "RE: March Madness '18" I'll fill out a bracket after the selections are made. That should happen this Sunday.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Bebo 21007 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-11-18, 02:17 PM (EST) 2. "RE: March Madness '18" Since I am a proud graduate of the ACC Regular Season and Tournament Champions, aka the unanimous #1 team who will be the overall #1 seed, I am looking forward to the madness.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

cahaya 19657 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-13-18, 06:37 PM (EST) 11. "In other words..." ... beware the Bebo! Smurfed by Icey.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Molaholic 9015 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-11-18, 09:36 PM (EST) 3. "RE: March Madness '18" I'll play too.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

minitroll 3901 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 03-11-18, 10:02 PM (EST) 4. "RE: March Madness '18" I look forward to this every year, even thought I stink at it.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

cahaya 19657 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-12-18, 01:32 AM (EST) 5. "RE: March Madness '18" Hopefully, mrc will be along shortly with league set-up and invites! If not, I'll set one up.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

kingfish 20242 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-12-18, 06:43 PM (EST) 6. "RE: March Madness '18" My picks are ready to go. Let's do'er. First games are tomorrow   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

cahaya 19657 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-12-18, 11:05 PM (EST) 7. "Join the March Madness tournament!" LAST EDITED ON 03-12-18 AT 11:14 PM (EST) I've set up the SBOT Nose Pickers tournament group for this year, with auto-invites to last year's participants. The direct Yahoo link is here. Deadline to complete bracket is March 15 12:15 PM EDT. Have fun, good luck and cheer your picks on!   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Molaholic 9015 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-12-18, 11:27 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Join the March Madness tournament!" My picks are in. Hoping to finish in the top 100%.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

kingfish 20242 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-13-18, 01:44 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Join the March Madness tournament!" I'm in. Heart picks all the way.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

cahaya 19657 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-13-18, 11:08 PM (EST) 12. "RE: Join the March Madness tournament!" Heart picks all the way. I'm going with the numbers, based on several well-publicized statistical models. I'm actually playing 5 different brackets this year, one bracket in this league and another 4 brackets in the open, with those four brackets each based on different statistical models. I'm sort of pitting these four models against each other to see which one does best. My bracket in this league is sort of composite blend of the four models I've been looking at, along with checking on the Vegas odds.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

kingfish 20242 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-15-18, 06:37 PM (EST) 14. "RE: Join the March Madness tournament!" LAST EDITED ON 03-15-18 AT 06:38 PM (EST) Looking up published odds as a basis for your picks is a good way to go. Especially if money is on the line, I used to win football, basketball, and baseball online competition regularly using published odds. But heart bets are more fun to win IMO. If no money is involved, I will never bet against my favorites.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

minitroll 3901 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 03-13-18, 06:03 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Join the March Madness tournament!" I'm in! Thank you for setting it up.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Max_Headroom 17 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 03-14-18, 10:47 PM (EST) 13. "RE: March Madness '18" Something is wrong with my bracket. I can't find the Indiana Hoosiers anywhere in it. Headbanger by IceCat, siggie by agman   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

kingfish 20242 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-15-18, 06:40 PM (EST) 15. "RE: March Madness '18" When they started making folding chairs out of rubber, I knew things would be bad for them.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Bebo 21007 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-15-18, 11:52 PM (EST) 16. "Day 1 bloodbath" Thanks to Buffalo: 1 bracket has lost an Elite 8 team 2 brackets have lost a Final 4 team And one, whom I mercifully will not name here, has lost the National Runner-Up. I also have a bracket with my UVA basketball   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

cahaya 19657 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-17-18, 00:28 AM (EST) 17. "RE: Day 1 bloodbath" Pfft! Day 1 was a mere nosebleed, a minor nuisance. Stuff some tissue inside and pack some ice on it. Real blood was shed tonight when #16 UMBC blew away #1 Virginia in an unprecedented, greatest upset in NCAA tournament history. Fatal hemorraging! Or as our friends across the pond might say, bloody hell!   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

minitroll 3901 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 03-17-18, 04:39 AM (EST) 18. "RE: Day 1 bloodbath" There were a few minor injuries yesterday, but now, thanks to Virginia, my bracket is a bloody crime scene.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

kingfish 20242 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-17-18, 11:44 AM (EST) 19. "RE: Day 1 bloodbath" Oh, the Humanity!   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

cahaya 19657 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-19-18, 00:23 AM (EST) 20. "Bracket busts (and oddities)" LAST EDITED ON 03-19-18 AT 00:40 AM (EST) A large number of top seeds lived up to their names by being toppled from their brackets in this week's action. South: The bloodbath South bracket with #1 Virginia, #2 Cincinnati, #3 Tennessee and #4 Arizona all biting the dust, leaving #5 Kentucky to play it out vs odd-numbered 7, 9 and 11 seeds. This is the first time in tournament history that none of the top 4 seeds in a region made it to the Sweet 16. West: More blood in the West as #1 Xavier and #2 North Carolina fall, leaving #3 Michigan and #4 Gonzaga as the favorites against two more odd-numbered 7 and 9 seeds. East: A fairly bloodless region with top 5 seeds remaining in #1 Villanova and #2 Purdue vs two more odd-numbered seeds in #3 Texas Tech and #5 W. Virginia. Midwest: Still more blood with #3 Michigan State and #4 Auburn biting the dust, leaving #1 Kansas and #2 Duke as the favorites versus (you guessed it again) two more odd-numbered 5 and 11 seeds. It looks like picking all those odd-numbered seeds would have been a great strategy in winning brackets this year!   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

cahaya 19657 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-19-18, 03:13 PM (EST) 21. "(and odds)" According to Vegas: Villanova 18/5 Duke 4/1 Kansas 6/1 Kentucky 7/1 Michigan 7/1 Gonzaga 8/1 Purdue 10/1 West Virginia 12/1 Texas Tech 15/1 Texas A&M 30/1 Nevada 50/1 Clemson 60/1 Florida State 60/1 Kansas State 60/1 Syracuse 80/1 Loyola-Chicago 100/1   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

kingfish 20242 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-19-18, 03:30 PM (EST) 22. "RE: (and odds)" LAST EDITED ON 03-19-18 AT 05:46 PM (EST) I have A&M to win it all (30-1. Yeah, that's a heart pick). But but but, they did demolish NC, and it would be poetic if they were to meet another NC team, and huge if they could beat them, well what a final that would be. Also, want to extend my thanks to Stan, for being there.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

cahaya 19657 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-19-18, 09:39 PM (EST) 23. "RE: (and odds)" LAST EDITED ON 03-19-18 AT 10:31 PM (EST) I'm all for Texas A&M at this point now that my top pick Virginia is out (in this bracket comp) and almost everyone else is picking Villanova. (Michigan and Michigan State are the other two.) The guys at 538 also caught on to the "oddities" that I mentioned earlier, as pictured here: That's three 5's, two 7's, two 9's and two 11's, with no 6's, 8's or 10's and a single 4. I posted about the oddities before they did!   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

cahaya 19657 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-23-18, 09:26 AM (EST) 24. "RE: (and odds)" Sorry, kingfish, Texam A&M is out (along with Gonzaga), leaving the hot 3 Michigan team to play against 9 Florida State. Kentucky is out, leaving 9 Kansas State and 11 Loyola-Chicago to duke it out for the Final 4. Will one of them be the lowest seed ever to reach the Final 4? Will one of them make the Final? East & Midwest regional action is tonight! I'm hoping West Virginia busts some brackets against Villanova! The Purdue engineering department still hasn't come up with a brace that center Haas can use on the floor. Meanwhile, Kansas and Duke are the obvious favorites in the Midwest.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

kingfish 20242 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-25-18, 01:46 PM (EST) 25. "RE: (and odds)" Right now Stan should be thanking me for being here. You're welcome, Stan.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

cahaya 19657 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-03-18, 09:33 AM (EST) 26. "The winner!" Grats to Nutzy, who wins in a tiebreaker with AyaK for the March Madness pool! Mr C came in a close third, just one point behind. Nutzy: 44 correct picks, 133 points. AyaK: 40 correct picks, 133 points. MrC: 37 correct picks, 132 points. I finished 7th with 39 correct picks, but Virginia's early loss busted my bracket chances. I'll post later on the comparison of how the various statistical models did which I put public entries for. The winner of that bunch was Bayesian LRMC (Logistics Regression Markov Chain) model, which outdid Nate Silver on 538.com, Ken Pomeroy (Kenpom) and Massey models.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

cahaya 19657 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-03-18, 02:19 PM (EST) 27. "Statistical models competition" LAST EDITED ON 04-03-18 AT 02:22 PM (EST) I ran 4 statistical models against each other in public league brackets and here's how they fared: 1. Bayesian LRMC (Logistic Regression Markov Chain): 112 points, 41 correct picks, top 93% rank. 2. Massey rankings: 89 points, 41 correct picks, top 78% rank. 3. Nate Silver 538.com ELO rankings and cumulative probabilities: 81 points, 36 correct picks, top 74% rank. 4. Kenpom (Ken Pomeroy) rankings: 78 points, 38 correct picks, top 70% rank. These models use different methods, but all of them except the LRMC model are based strictly on static statistics. The LRMC model is Bayesian time-series based using Markov Chain to track tendencies and future behavior. This model is similar to what Google uses to track your browsing and pop up ads supposedly of interest to you. This model picked the correct winner in Villanova and got some of the early round "upsets" correct, but blew it on Virginia as a finalist. The bracket I ran was a consensus of these 4 models. It went for 79 points and 39 correct picks, top 71% rank. It did very well in the early rounds except for the Virginia first-round 1-seed vs 16-seed upset. By consensus, Virginia was my predicted winner, killing the bracket, although I wondered even then if Villanova wasn't a better pick along with the LRMC model.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

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