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"2016 Baseball Hall of Fame vote"
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AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings
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01-17-17, 01:55 AM (EST)
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"2016 Baseball Hall of Fame vote"
With the final vote for 2016 about to be announced, I thought I'd update what used to be an annual tradition here. Here is my ballot (which I don't have) for this year's Baseball Hall of Fame (maximum of 10):

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Vladimir Guerrero
Trevor Hoffman
Edgar Martinez
Mike Mussina
Tim Raines
Curt Schilling
Larry Walker

As you can see, I've decided to vote for "Melonhead" (Bonds on steroids) and the "Texas Con Man" (Clemens on steroids), and I'd vote for Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez (another known steroid user) if I had an 11th vote. Like many of the baseball writers, the admission to the Hall of con man/car huckster Bud Selig (who turned a blind eye to the rampant abuse of steroids) convinced me to change my stance, which means I dropped Fred McGriff from my ballot. Sorry, Crime Dog. However, even though he was a great player and two-time World Series MVP, I'm not sure if I'm ever voting for Manny Ramirez after he was caught taking Clomid to hide his steroid use.

Soylent Green: recycling America, one person at a time.

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: 2016 Baseball Hall of Fame vote AyaK 01-17-17 1
   YaY! michel2 01-18-17 2
       RE: YaY! AyaK 01-19-17 3
           Two more Bill James HoF statistics AyaK 01-19-17 4
           RE: YaY! michel2 01-19-17 5
               RE: YaY! PepeLePew13 01-28-17 6
                   RE: YaY! michel2 02-03-17 7
                       RE: YaY! PepeLePew13 02-06-17 8
                           RE: YaY! aethelstan 02-08-17 9
                               RE: YaY! kingfish 02-18-17 10
                           RE: YaY! PepeLePew13 04-20-20 11

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AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings
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01-17-17, 02:21 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: 2016 Baseball Hall of Fame vote"
LAST EDITED ON 01-17-17 AT 02:22 AM (EST)

Here's the full 34-palayer ballot for 2016:

The 15 carryovers, last year's vote percentage, and years on ballot
Jeff Bagwell (71.6%) 6
Barry Bonds (44.3%) 4
Roger Clemens (45.2%) 4
Trevor Hoffman (68.3%) 1
Jeff Kent (16.6%) 3
Edgar Martinez (43.4%) 7
Fred McGriff (20.9%) 9
Mike Mussina (43.0%) 3
Tim Raines (69.8%) 9
Curt Schilling (52.3%) 4
Gary Sheffield (11.6%) 2
Lee Smith (34.1%) 14
Sammy Sosa (7.0%) 4
Billy Wagner (10.5%) 1
Larry Walker (15.5%) 6

And the 19 newcomers:
Casey Blake
Pat Burrell
Orlando Cabrera
Mike Cameron
J.D. Drew
Carlos Guillen
Vladimir Guerrero
Derek Lee
Melvin Mora
Magglio Ordonez
Jorge Posada
Manny Ramirez
Edgar Renteria
Arthur Rhodes
Ivan Rodriguez
Freddy Sanchez
Matt Stairs
Jason Varitek
Tim Wakefield

Plus, here's the link to the 2014 discussion (my actual 2015 picks didn't match what I predicted):
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID82/3582.shtml

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michel2 3724 desperate attention whore postings
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01-18-17, 07:14 PM (EST)
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2. "YaY!"
Tim Raines made it!

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18504557/jeff-bagwell-tim-raines-ivan-pudge-rodriguez-elected-baseball-hall-fame

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AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings
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01-19-17, 01:14 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: YaY!"
LAST EDITED ON 01-19-17 AT 02:03 AM (EST)

I've supported Raines since his second year on the ballot:

http://community.realitytvworld.com/cgi-sys/cgiwrap/rtvw2/community/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=2533&forum=DCForumID82&archive=yes#3

This is his 10th year. It's been a long haul, but he finally made it.

EDITED TO ADD: So did Jeff Bagwell and Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez. And Trevor Hoffman and Vladimir Guerrero just missed, so they should make it next year. Clemens and Bonds look like they've broken through the steroid roadblock (along with Pudge). And, amazingly, it looks like our arguments back in the lined thread above that Edmar Martinez deserved to get in are gaining traction, although it's hard to predict if he'll make it in the next two years (which is all he has left on the ballot).

Here was the voting for people getting over 5% and staying on the ballot:

1 Jeff Bagwell 7th 381 86.2%
2 Tim Raines 10th 380 86.0%
3 Ivan Rodriguez 1st 336 76.0%
---------------------------------------
4 Trevor Hoffman 2nd 327 74.0%
5 Vladimir Guerrero 1st 317 71.7%
6 Edgar Martinez 8th 259 58.6%
7 Roger Clemens 5th 239 54.1%
8 Barry Bonds 5th 238 53.8%
9 Mike Mussina 4th 229 51.8%
10 Curt Schilling 5th 199 45.0%
11 X-Lee Smith 15th 151 34.2%
12 Manny Ramirez 1st 105 23.8%
13 Larry Walker 7th 97 21.9%
14 Fred McGriff 8th 96 21.7%
15 Jeff Kent 4th 74 16.7%
16 Gary Sheffield 3rd 59 13.3%
17 Billy Wagner 2nd 45 10.2%
18 Sammy Sosa 5th 38 8.6%

Next year, there are two "probables" being added to the ballot: Chipper Jones and Jim Those. Here's the 2018 ballot ranked by Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor statistic (generally, over 133 should make it, unless something else (like steroids) gets in the way):
340: Barry Bonds
332: Roger Clemens
226 Manny Ramirez
209 Vladimir Guerrero
202 Sammy Sosa
180 Chipper Jones
171 Curt Schilling
159 Trevor Hoffman
158 Gary Sheffield
156 Jim Thome
148 Larry Walker
132 Edgar Martinez
122 Jeff Kent
121 Mike Mussina
120 Omar Vizquel

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AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings
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01-19-17, 02:36 AM (EST)
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4. "Two more Bill James HoF statistics"
This is the Bill James HoF Career Standards statistic, measuring how well a player's career numbers compare to the average Hall of Famer, on a scale of 0-100, with 50 representing the average Hall of Famer:
76 Bonds
73 Clemens
70 C. Jones
69 M. Ramirez
61 Sheffield
58 Guerrero
58 Walker
57 Thome
54 Mussina
52 Sosa
51 Kent
50 E. Martinez
48 Fred McGriff
46 Schilling
45 Johnny Damon
42 Vizquel

And, finally, WAR7 -- wins against replacement for the player's best 7 years, which shows how dominant a player was at his peak.
72.7 Bonds
66.3 Clemens
49.0 Schilling
46.6 C. Jones
46.4 Andruw Jones
44.8 Johan Santana
44.6 Walker
44.5 Mussina
43.7 Sosa
43.6 E. Martinez
43.5 Scott Rolen
41.5 Thome
41.1 Guerrero
39.9 M. Ramirez

A huge WAR7 number shows that a player had a real period of dominance, which bodes well (in my view) for Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, and Chipper Jones. On the other hand, like Andrew Jones and Santana, a player can burn brightly and then burn out (due to injury or another issue).

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michel2 3724 desperate attention whore postings
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01-19-17, 11:11 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: YaY!"
Chipper Jones should go in on his first try. I'm pulling for Vlad of course because he'd be the last Expo to get in.

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PepeLePew13 26030 desperate attention whore postings
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01-28-17, 00:41 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: YaY!"
Not the last Expo, in my mind. It will be interesting to see how the Today's Game Eras committee views Larry Walker, who really should be in the HOF.
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michel2 3724 desperate attention whore postings
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02-03-17, 04:35 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: YaY!"
Walker could get in but it's far from certain. Vlad has a much better shot.
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PepeLePew13 26030 desperate attention whore postings
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02-06-17, 01:58 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: YaY!"
Oh, I think Vladdy is definitely in next year.

Walker has no shot at making it through the normal voting process so his best bet is to be inducted through the Today's Game Era veterans process - these people saw him play every day so they'd have a better idea of how great Walker was than the media would.

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aethelstan 4433 desperate attention whore postings
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02-08-17, 02:18 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: YaY!"
The only question in my mind is whether Vladdy goes in as an Expo or not. 8 years in Montreal and 6 in California. Obviously, I'm hoping that he goes in as an Expo.

Walker and McGriff have the disadvantage of playing clean in the steroid era so, as a result, they don't get a lot of black ink (high in MVP votes) but, had the steroid users not used, their stats would compare much more favourably.

It seems contradictory that people will say that player X or Y shouldn't get in because they used PEDs but then, at the same time, say that Player A or B shouldn't get in because their stats weren't as good as X or Y. Well, of course they weren't! X and Y were on PEDs! You need to compare apples to apples and not to steroid-apples or else it isn't fair. They'll need a whole committee just to try to determine who were the best (likely) clean players and then put those up against HOF monitor or HOF standard.

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kingfish 20712 desperate attention whore postings
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02-18-17, 03:56 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: YaY!"
John Schuerholz and Bud Selig also in.
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PepeLePew13 26030 desperate attention whore postings
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04-20-20, 08:36 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: YaY!"
Just updating to see that I'm glad to be incorrect that Larry Walker wouldn't get in until the veterans process. Long overdue, but congrats, Larry.
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