I'm starting this hyper-early because we usually wind up breaking down the final-week playoff scenarios at this point -- and in this case, things are so messed up (especially in the NFC) that we'll going to need all the time we can get to work this out.First, the decidedly more stable division and those still in some form of postseason contention.
AFC
Broncos: Have the West and a first-round bye. Get homefield throughout if they win their last game or the Patriots lose.
Patriots: Hold the East. They get a first-round bye of their own if they win or both the Bengals and Colts lose. Homefield belongs to them should they win while the Broncos lose.
Bengals: Took the North, not that anyone noticed. The remaining first-round bye goes to them if they win while the Patriots lose and Hoodie fails to assassinate everyone involved.
Colts: Have the South -- and yes, they're also in contention for that bye week: they have to win while both the Bengals and Patriots lose. A lot depends on the Patriots losing. Doesn't it always?
Chiefs: They're a wild card. They can't move out of that status. As such, they can be ignored until the moment they actually play. And then they can be ignored because, y'know, Reidiot.
That leaves one AFC wild card spot open, and here's where the stupid begins to pile up.
Ravens: Three scenarios. They win and the Chargers lose. They win and the Dolphins lose. They do anything they like while both of those two lose and the Steelers go down. Presumably this involves Ray Lewis coming back. Somewhere.
Dolphins: They have to win, combined with either a Ravens failure-to-fly or the Chargers winning. Neurotic lobsters are built in.
Steelers: One formula only. They win while the Ravens, Dolphins, and Chargers all lose. Also, the league cheats, the refs go temporarily blind, and Geg comes back just to laugh at us and claim it's destiny. So, you know, there's a silver lining in there.
Chargers: You knew that with all the chances going through them, they had to have their own, right? It's a win plus Ravens and Dolphins losses.
And that was the sane division.
NFC
Two things are settled. Exactly two. The Panthers and Seahawks are in the playoffs. Their seeds? No. Divisions? Not a chance. Wild cards? Don't make me laugh.
This. Is. A. Mess.
But if you sort it all out...
Seahawks: At least a wild card. Get the West and homefield if they win. They can also manage it if the 49ers lose -- tonight or next week, doesn't matter which: any SF loss seals it.
Saints: Receive a playoff spot if they win or the 49ers lose either remaining game or the Cardinals lose, which would probably take ten turnovers. They get the South and a bye week if they win and the Panthers have Snidget watching the whole game, also known as 'a loss'.
Panthers: Can't go below a wild card. Get the South and the first-round bye if they win or the Saints lose. They have a chance at homefield, but it's trickier -- they have to win while the Seahawks lose and the 49ers win either remaining game. So really, the problem is Seattle. Isn't it always?
49ers: They lock a wild card with one win in two chances. The West and a bye comes to them should they win both while the Seahawks lose. And the #1 seed with homefield? Throw a Panthers loss on top of that.
Cardinals: They're after a wild card, but they have to win and have one of two other things happens: the 49ers lose tonight -- Week #17 won't count -- or the Saints lose, period.
Eagles: Get the Least with a win or tie.
Cowboys: Or they could be the best of the Least, but only a win will do.
Bears: The North is theirs should they win.
Packers: Or the division goes to them if they win.
Like I said... a mess. NBC's greatest challenge may be picking which game to flex. (Well, that and keeping a new series on the air for more than six weeks.) Just about everything is up for grabs, and the battle at the bottom of the pile is going to be a nasty one.
Kind of silly to be making this much fuss over who gets to be screwed over by the zebras in January.
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