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"2013 Vince Memorial NFL Pick 'Um -- Week 6 Thursday game"
Molaholic 8522 desperate attention whore postings
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10-08-13, 10:05 AM (EST)
 
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"2013 Vince Memorial NFL Pick 'Um -- Week 6 Thursday game" |
Just getting Thursday's game posted -- rather late night last night (thank you Juan Uribe)..THURSDAY, OCTOBER 10 New York Giants @ Chicago Bears
Gracias
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ARnutz 13816 desperate attention whore postings
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10-08-13, 07:37 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: 2013 Vince Memorial NFL Pick 'Um -- Week 6 Thursday game" |
Chicago Bears
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Molaholic 8522 desperate attention whore postings
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10-08-13, 08:54 PM (EST)
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4. "Here's the Twist" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-09-13 AT 10:09 AM (EST)OK - now able to post the rest of the schedule and introduce the new twist: PARLAY PARTAH will be tied into the PICK 'UM games. It will cost a 3-point buy-in to play. All of the player's picks must be correct for the payoff to hit. Lose one game and you lose the 3-point buy-in. The rest of your games will be treated as normal BET 'UMs. The payoff will be 3x your total bet (the original 3 points is returned even-money). These will be 4-game parlays. Players do have the option to ignore PARLAY PARTAH, and may play up to 3 of the 4 PARLAY PARTAHs as BET 'UMs.SAMPLE:
Sally plays PARLAY PARTAH, betting 3 points on each game. If she hits all four games, she will net 3 (buy-in) plus 36 (12x3), for a profit of 39. Should one of those game be a loss, she will lose the buy-in (-3), lose the game (-3), but still win the BET 'UM part for the other three games (+9) for an overall net of +3.Be sure to indicate your preferences when posting.
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Molaholic 8522 desperate attention whore postings
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10-08-13, 09:06 PM (EST)
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5. " The rest of the schedule" |
Be sure to check out the TWIST notice aboveSUNDAY, OCTOBER 13
Green Bay Packers @ Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills
Detroit Lions @ Cleveland Browns
St. Louis Rams @ Houston Texans
Carolina Panthers @ Minnesota Vikings
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs PARLAY PARTAH/BET 'UM
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets PARLAY PARTAH/BET 'UM
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos
Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks
New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots PARLAY PARTAH/BET 'UM
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers PARLAY PARTAH/BET 'UM
Washington Redskins @ Dallas CowboysMONDAY, OCTOBER 14
Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego ChargersBYE teams - Atlanta Braves Falcons, Miami Dolphins  
Merci, Pepe for the siggies
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cahaya 18937 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-13, 10:29 AM (EST)
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39. "Parlay Partah odds" |
Most of y'all know me well enough by now that I play these games (Pickems and FF) by the numbers. So, yes, I did a mathematical analysis of the PARLAY PARTAH bets (using Excel). And the average payoff is surprisingly close to going with highly favorite BET UM's, depending on the odds for the four games in question. So, credit goes to Moly for devising a challenging twist with roughly equivalent payoff odds.Here are the numbers I came up with for this week... 1) First, determine the odds of each team winning the game. There are sites that list these odds and they vary, depending on the prediction model(s) being used. Note that the PITT/NYJ and NO/NE games are virtual toss ups. Favorite Underdog Fav Win% Fav Lose%
SF AZ 82.2% 17.8%
KC OAK 73.4% 26.6%
PITT NYJ 52.9% 47.1%
NO NE 50.1% 49.9% 2) To calculate what the odds and average payout are for the PARLAY PARTAH, BET UM 3, and STRAIGHT bets, first determine what the odds are for each of the 16 possible W-L results. In this case, there is a 16% chance of winning all four bets and a 1.1% chance of losing all of them!
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
W W W W L W W W L L L W L L L L
W W W L W W L L W W L L W L L L
W W L W W L W L W L W L L W L L
W L W W W L L W L W W L L L W L
82.2% 82.2% 82.2% 82.2% 17.8% 82.2% 82.2% 82.2% 17.8% 17.8% 17.8% 82.2% 17.8% 17.8% 17.8% 17.8%
73.4% 73.4% 73.4% 26.6% 73.4% 73.4% 26.6% 26.6% 73.4% 73.4% 26.6% 26.6% 73.4% 26.6% 26.6% 26.6%
52.9% 52.9% 47.1% 52.9% 52.9% 47.1% 52.9% 47.1% 52.9% 47.1% 52.9% 47.1% 47.1% 52.9% 47.1% 47.1%
50.1% 49.9% 50.1% 50.1% 50.1% 49.9% 49.9% 50.1% 49.9% 50.1% 50.1% 49.9% 49.9% 49.9% 50.1% 49.9%
Win 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0
Loss 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4
Result% 16.0% 15.9% 14.2% 5.8% 3.5% 14.2% 5.8% 5.2% 3.4% 3.1% 1.3% 5.1% 3.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% (sum = 100.0%) 3) For each betting system, determine what the payout would be for each of the 16 possible results. Then multiply the payout by the game result odds to determine the weighted value of each possible payout. Then sum up the weighted payouts to arrive at the betting system's average payout. PARLAY Payout 39 3 3 3 3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -9 -9 -9 -9 -15
Payoff 6.23 0.48 0.43 0.17 0.10 -0.43 -0.17 -0.15 -0.10 -0.09 -0.04 -0.46 -0.28 -0.11 -0.10 -0.17 = 5.31
BET 'UM (SF,KC) Payout 8 7 7 2 2 6 1 1 1 1 -4 0 0 -5 -5 -6
Payoff 1.28 1.12 1.00 0.12 0.07 0.85 0.06 0.05 0.03 0.03 -0.05 0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.06 -0.07 = 4.37
STRAIGHT Payout 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0
Payoff 0.64 0.48 0.43 0.17 0.10 0.28 0.12 0.10 0.07 0.06 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 = 2.59 So, based on the game odds initially input, the PARLAY has a slightly higher average payout than the BET 'UM (on two highly favored games), and both are much better than STRAIGHT bets. However, PARLAY is also riskier, with a better payout than BET 'UM on only a few of the 16 possible results. Note that the only input that goes into this calculation is the odds of each team winning the four games, which is subjective based on the web site sources to arrive at those odds. And to think I was just a few seconds and a few inches from winning all 39 PARLAY PARTAH points, drat that Brady! 
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samboohoo 17111 desperate attention whore postings
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10-09-13, 10:28 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: 2013 Vince Memorial NFL Pick 'Um -- Week 6 Thursday game" |
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 10
New York Giants @ Chicago BearsSUNDAY, OCTOBER 13
Green Bay Packers @ Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills
Detroit Lions @ Cleveland Browns
St. Louis Rams @ Houston Texans
Carolina Panthers @ Minnesota Vikings
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs PARLAY PARTAH/BET 'UM 3
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets PARLAY PARTAH/BET 'UM 3
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos
Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks
New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots PARLAY PARTAH/BET 'UM 3
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers PARLAY PARTAH/BET 'UM 3
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys MONDAY, OCTOBER 14
Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers
Samboobree, brought to life by Arkie
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Jims02 7349 desperate attention whore postings
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10-09-13, 09:36 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: 2013 Vince Memorial NFL Pick 'Um -- Week 6 Thursday game" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-09-13 AT 09:36 PM (EST)I think I'm gonna have to read the extra rules later... But for now, New York Giants @ Chicago Bears 
Now please excuse me, I'm off to cry myself to sleep over the loss of Julio Jones. 
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Molaholic 8522 desperate attention whore postings
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10-13-13, 12:02 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: Rest of Picks" |
Since your Oakland/Kansas City parlay/bet 'um pick is missing I'll treat the others as normal Bet 'ums. (unless corrected before the deadline)
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PepeLePew13 24791 desperate attention whore postings
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10-10-13, 12:04 PM (EST)
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18. "Thursday's pick" |
Let's go with Da Bears for tonight. The long and ugly season for Eli and the Giants is about to get even uglier.
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PepeLePew13 24791 desperate attention whore postings
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10-13-13, 08:28 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: Thursday's pick" |
That was nuts... Poor clock management and a failure to extend two drives in the last three minutes by the Ain'ts turned a Cahaya parlay partah bonanza into one for me!
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cahaya 18937 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-13, 09:28 AM (EST)
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38. "RE: Thursday's pick" |
Gah! I was on the edge of my seat watching that game! Nice comeback by Brady there to take advantage of every second remaining with the final pass accurate to the last inch for the score.
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