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"Dial Idol and Other Poll Data"
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Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-10, 08:16 AM (EST)
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"Dial Idol and Other Poll Data"
Overall Summary.

So after putting the numbers in a spread sheet I counted up how many times a girl was in the top 6 or in the bottom 5. Based on how many times people are in either list

The three girls most likely to be safe (at the safe end of both lists)
Crystal Bowersox
Didi Benami
Katie Stevens

The three girls most likely going home (bottom three in both lists)
Ashley Rodriguez
Janell Wheeler
Paige Miles

One thing to remember is some of the polls are open before the show starts and others just count votes after the show. And sometimes people do change their mind during the show.

On to the data

Dial Idol. Counts the busy signals, Autovoter.

Dial Idol Score (based on timing of busies and percent busies)

21.672 Katie Stevens
5.809 Crystal Bowersox
2.395 Lilly Scott
1.538 Haeley Vaughn
1.130 Lacey Brown
0.665 Didi Benami
0.484 Janell Wheeler
0.433 Paige Miles
0.254 Ashley Rodriguez
0.200 Michelle Delamor
0.126 Siobhan Magnus
0.012 Katelyn Epperly

Ranked by total votes cast using Dial Idol
1 Siobhan Magnus
2 Crystal Bowersox
3 Katelyn Epperly
4 Lilly Scott
5 Katie Stevens
6 Didi Benami
7 Michelle Delamor
8 Lacey Brown
9 Paige Miles
10 Haeley Vaughn
11 Janell Wheeler
12 Ashley Rodriguez

State by state breakdown (number of states won)
This can show how widespread the support is.

14 Katie Stevens
3 Crystal Bowersox
2 Michelle Delamor
2 Siobhan Magnus
1 Didi Benami
1 Haeley Vaughn
1 Lacey Brown
1 Lilly Scott
0 Ashley Rodriguez
0 Janell Wheeler
0 Katelyn Epperly
0 Paige Miles
0 Tie
25 No Vote
50 Total

Iphone Voter App. Counts votes. Semi Automated
This is new this year. You do not have to dial the number, it will load the numbers, also tells you the VFTW candidate.

Ranked by Total Votes
1 Katie Stevens
2 Michelle Delamor
3 Katelyn Epperly
4 Crystal Bowersox
5 Haeley Vaughn
6 Didi Benami
7 Lacey Brown
8 Janell Wheeler
9 Siobhan Magnus
10 Lilly Scott
11 Paige Miles
12 Ashley Rodriguez

Ranked by Number of different voters (also may be a measure of how widespread the support is)

1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Haeley Vaughn
3 Katie Stevens
4 Siobhan Magnus
5 Lilly Scott
6 Katelyn Epperly
7 Didi Benami
8 Ashley Rodriguez
9 Michelle Delamor
10 Paige Miles
11 Lacey Brown
12 Janell Wheeler

Votefair. One vote per person. Poll usually open before show. Vote for people you like

1 Crystal Bowersox
1 Didi Benami
2 Katie Stevens
3 Lacey Brown
4 Lilly Scott
5 Ashley Rodriguez
6 Janell Wheeler
7 Siobhan Magnus
8 Katelyn Epperly
9 Haeley Vaughn
9 Michelle Delamor
10 Paige Miles

MSNBC. Poll, not sure when opened. Vote for who is going home

1 Katie Stevens
2 Michelle Delamor
3 Siobhan Magnus
4 Katelyn Epperly
5 Lilly Scott
6 Crystal Bowersox
7 Didi Benami
7 Janell Wheeler
9 Paige Miles
10 Ashley Rodriguez
11 Lacey Brown
12 Haeley Vaughn


Zabasearch. Only because I want to see if they post something before show time who it is. They usually change their results to match the results show. Haven't seen a prediction, yet.

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 Top 12 Boys Snidget 02-25-10 1
 Idol Democracy Week One Snidget 02-25-10 2
 RE: Dial Idol and Other Poll Data Tahj 02-25-10 3
   RE: Dial Idol and Other Poll Data Snidget 02-25-10 4
       RE: Dial Idol and Other Poll Data zazzy 02-25-10 5
 What Not To Sing Snidget 02-28-10 6
   RE: What Not To Sing zazzy 02-28-10 7
       RE: What Not To Sing Snidget 02-28-10 8
 Top 10 Boys Snidget 03-03-10 9
 Idol Democracy Week Two Snidget 03-03-10 10
 Top 10 Girls Snidget 03-04-10 11
 Week Two What Not To Sing Snidget 03-04-10 12
 Top 8 Girls Snidget 03-10-10 13
   RE: Top 8 Girls Estee 03-10-10 15
 Week Three What Not To Sing Snidget 03-10-10 14
   The Boys Snidget 03-11-10 18
 Idol Democracy Week Three Snidget 03-10-10 16
   RE: Idol Democracy Week Three Snidget 03-11-10 19
 Top 8 Boys Snidget 03-11-10 17
 RE: Dial Idol and Other Poll Data finallytyping 03-11-10 20
   RE: Dial Idol and Other Poll Data Snidget 03-11-10 21
       RE: Dial Idol and Other Poll Data finallytyping 03-11-10 22
           RE: Dial Idol and Other Poll Data Snidget 03-11-10 24
   RE: Dial Idol and Other Poll Data zazzy 03-11-10 23
 Top 12 Idols Snidget 03-17-10 25
   Idol Democracy top 12 Snidget 03-17-10 26
   What Not To Sing Snidget 03-19-10 27
       RE: What Not To Sing zazzy 03-19-10 28
           RE: What Not To Sing Snidget 03-19-10 29
 Top 11 Snidget 03-24-10 30
   Prelim What not to Sing Snidget 03-24-10 31
   Idol Democracy top 11 Snidget 03-24-10 32
       RE: Idol Democracy top 11 zazzy 03-24-10 33
           RE: Idol Democracy top 11 frodis 03-24-10 34
               RE: Idol Democracy top 11 Snidget 03-24-10 35
                   RE: Idol Democracy top 11 zazzy 03-24-10 36
                       RE: Idol Democracy top 11 FFantasyFX 03-25-10 37
                           RE: Idol Democracy top 11 zazzy 03-25-10 38
 RE: Dial Idol and Other Poll Data Snidget 03-31-10 39
   Top 10 What not To Sing Snidget 03-31-10 40
   Top 10 Idol Democracy Snidget 03-31-10 41
 Top 9 Snidget 04-07-10 42
   What Not To Sing Snidget 04-07-10 43
       RE: What Not To Sing zazzy 04-08-10 46
   Top 9 Idol Democracy Snidget 04-07-10 44
       RE: Top 9 Idol Democracy zazzy 04-08-10 48
   RE: Top 9 zazzy 04-08-10 45
       RE: Top 9 CTgirl 04-08-10 47
           RE: Top 9 zazzy 04-08-10 49
 Top 9 Take Two Snidget 04-14-10 50
   Top 9 Take Two What Not To Sing Snidget 04-14-10 51
       RE: Top 9 Take Two What Not To Sin... zazzy 04-14-10 52
   Idol Democracy top 9-2 Snidget 04-14-10 53
 Top 7 Snidget 04-21-10 54
   Top 7 What Not To Sing Snidget 04-21-10 55
   RE: Top 7 zazzy 04-21-10 56
       RE: Top 7 Snidget 04-21-10 57
           RE: Top 7 Estee 04-21-10 59
   Top 7 Idol Democracy Snidget 04-21-10 58
       RE: Top 7 Idol Democracy Estee 04-21-10 60
 Top 6 Snidget 04-28-10 61
   Top 6 What Not To Sing Snidget 04-28-10 62
       RE: Top 6 What Not To Sing zazzy 04-28-10 63
       RE: Top 6 What Not To Sing zazzy 04-28-10 64
           RE: Top 6 What Not To Sing Snidget 04-28-10 65
               RE: Top 6 What Not To Sing vince3 04-28-10 66
 Top 5 Snidget 05-05-10 67
   RE: Top 5--What Not To Sing Snidget 05-05-10 68
 Top 4 Snidget 05-12-10 69
   RE: Top 4--What Not To Sing Snidget 05-12-10 70
 Top 3 Data Snidget 05-19-10 71
   RE: Top 3 Data Snidget 05-19-10 72
 Top 2 DI results Snidget 05-26-10 73

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Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings
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02-25-10, 09:31 AM (EST)
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1. "Top 12 Boys"
Overall Summary.

The guys seem less clear cut than the girs

The four guys most likely to be safe Two were safest on both lists and two are safe on one list only (with *)
Andrew Garcia
Casey James
Michael Lynche *
Aaron Kelly *

Four guys most likely to be bottom three (again * means only in bottom three on one list)
John Park
Jermaine Sellers
Joe Muņoz *
Todrick Hall *

One thing to remember is some of the polls are open before the show starts and others just count votes after the show. And sometimes people do change their mind during the show.

On to the data

Dial Idol. Counts the busy signals, Autovoter.

Dial Idol Score (based on timing of busies and percent busies)

19.763 Andrew Garcia
5.287 Casey James
2.656 Michael Lynche
2.336 Alex Lambert
1.801 Tyler Grady
1.313 Tim Urban
1.224 Aaron Kelly
0.961 Lee DeWyze
0.546 Todrick Hall
0.221 John Park
0.175 Joe Muņoz
0.002 Jermaine Sellers

Ranked by total votes cast using Dial Idol

1 Alex Lambert
2 Andrew Garcia
3 Aaron Kelly
4 Casey James
5 Jermaine Sellers
6 Joe Muņoz
7 John Park
7 Lee DeWyze
8 Michael Lynche
10 Tim Urban
11 Todrick Hall
12 Tyler Grady

State by state breakdown (number of states won)
This can show how widespread the support is.

11 Andrew Garcia
4 Casey James
3 Aaron Kelly
2 Michael Lynche
2 Tim Urban
1 Lee DeWyze
1 Tyler Grady
0 Alex Lambert
0 Jermaine Sellers
0 Joe Muņoz
0 John Park
0 Todrick Hall
1 Tie
25 No Vote
50 Total

Iphone Voter App. Counts votes. Semi Automated
This is new this year. You do not have to dial the number, it will load the numbers, also tells you the VFTW candidate.

Ranked by Total Votes
1 Casey James
2 Lee DeWyze
3 Andrew Garcia
4 Tim Urban
5 Alex Lambert
6 Aaron Kelly
7 Michael Lynche
8 Todrick Hall
9 Tyler Grady
10 John Park
11 Joe Muņoz
12 Jermaine Sellers

Ranked by Number of different voters (also may be a measure of how widespread the support is)

1 Casey James
2 Lee DeWyze
3 Andrew Garcia
4 Tim Urban
5 Alex Lambert
6 Aaron Kelly
7 Michael Lynche
8 Todrick Hall
9 Tyler Grady
10 John Park
11 Joe Muņoz
12 Jermaine Sellers

Votefair. One vote per person. Poll usually open before show. Vote for people you like

1 Andrew Garcia
2 Casey James
3 Lee DeWyze
4 Michael Lynche
5 Tyler Grady
7 Alex Lambert
7 Todrick Hall
8 Aaron Kelly
9 John Park
10 Tim Urban
11 Jermaine Sellers
12 Joe Muņoz

MSNBC. Poll, not sure when opened. Vote for who is going home

1 Lee DeWyze
2 Andrew Garcia
3 Michael Lynche
4 Aaron Kelly
5 Casey James
6 Joe Muņoz
7 Tyler Grady
8 Alex Lambert
9 Todrick Hall
10 Jermaine Sellers
11 John Park
12 Tim Urban

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Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings
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02-25-10, 11:03 AM (EST)
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2. "Idol Democracy Week One"
LAST EDITED ON 02-25-10 AT 03:09 PM (EST)

Found where they are posting the data. Only the girls are up now

http://www.mediacurves.com/americanidol/idoldemocracy/

% of people voting for

16.3 Crystal Bowersox
12.7 Lilly Scott
11.1 Katie Stevens
8.8 Siobhan Magnus
8.4 Janell Wheeler
7.2 Katelyn Epperly
6.9 Michelle Delamor
6.5 Lacey Brown
6.1 Didi Benami
6.0 Paige Miles
5.9 Ashley Rodriguez
4.2 Haeley Vaughn

ETA The boys

22.2 Casey James
11.7 Andrew Garcia
9.9 Tim Urban
9.0 Michael Lynche
8.7 Lee DeWyze
8.4 Alex Lambert
6.9 Aaron Kelly
5.2 Joe Muņoz
5.1 Tyler Grady
5.0 John Park
4.7 Todrick Hall
3.2 Jermaine Sellers

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02-25-10, 11:57 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Dial Idol and Other Poll Data"
Keep those stats coming, Snidget. I love reading them. Thanks.


It's a Tribe!

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Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings
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02-25-10, 03:10 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Dial Idol and Other Poll Data"
Thanks. Good to know someone else likes staring at the numbers.
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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings
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02-25-10, 04:53 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Dial Idol and Other Poll Data"
I'm a data person, too, so thanks for keeping us supplied with all the polls!
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Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings
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02-28-10, 01:40 PM (EST)
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6. "What Not To Sing"
http://www.whatnottosing.com/ keeps a database of all the songs sung by people on American Idol and how the songs were ranked.

They use various news sources and blogs and such to get the ratins of the song. I'm not putting the standard deviation for each number and I will be doing a season average as well as a the weekly numbers

They don't usually get them up early enough for prediction purposes but it shows who the critics like and who they don't.

The average rating for a debut episode is 44.7. The girls averaged 44.3 and the guys averaged 37.0 (numbers here from the article on this week).

Weekly and Year to Date numbers

78 Crystal Bowersox
72 Siobhan Magnus
64 Katelyn Epperly
62 Lilly Scott
61 Didi Benami
58 Michelle Delamor
43 Katie Stevens
26 Paige Miles
22 Janell Wheeler
14 Ashley Rodriguez
12 Haeley Vaughn
7 Lacey Brown

83 Casey James
75 Andrew Garcia
57 Lee DeWyze
44 Michael Lynche
41 Aaron Kelly
31 Joe Muņoz
30 Todrick Hall
26 Tyler Grady
22 John Park
18 Alex Lambert
13 Jermaine Sellers
4 Tim Urban

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02-28-10, 03:43 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: What Not To Sing"
So, is this the top 12? 5 guys and 7 girls? Or will we have the top 13 with Todrick thrown in? Because Katie's no. 7 on the girl's list at the moment, but we can already see the pimping that will ensue the next two weeks...so she'll likely be higher by top 12 time.

78 Crystal Bowersox
72 Siobhan Magnus
64 Katelyn Epperly
62 Lilly Scott
61 Didi Benami
58 Michelle Delamor
43 Katie Stevens

83 Casey James
75 Andrew Garcia
57 Lee DeWyze
44 Michael Lynche
41 Aaron Kelly


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Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings
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02-28-10, 03:56 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: What Not To Sing"
LAST EDITED ON 02-28-10 AT 03:58 PM (EST)

I think top 12 has to be 6 guys and 6 girls in this format.

Probably trying to avoid the sausage fest that happens as a lot of the voters tend to vote for the guys more than the girls. So at least at 12 you have to be 50:50. Wasn't our top 12 last year much more guys than girls?

With the 7 above average girls I'm thinking we will lose one of the quirky unique girls so we can have Katie.

So filling the roles.

Diva: Michelle
Cute/Young: Katie
Cute/Blond: Either Katelyn or Didi
Soulful: Crystal
Quirky: Lilly or Siobhan.

I'm thinking out of that 7 we will lose Didi or Katelyn.

With the guys

Cute Guy: Casey
Black Soulful/Teddy Bear: Michael
Young Cute: Aaron
Blue Eyed Soul: Led
Acoustic version guy: Andrew

Of the remaining I could see Either
Todrick as Diva Guy or John as Crooner/Anoop type of guy.

ETA: We will probably get a better feel for who may be favored/not favored if we get any "That was what we put you in the top 24 to do" from the people near the bottom of the pack or a "what happened to the person we loved last week" type of response and/or a "you are a one trick pony based on two songs" type of thing.

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Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings
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03-03-10, 07:22 AM (EST)
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9. "Top 10 Boys"
Rankings for the Top 10 Boys

Overall Summary

Three boys most likely to be in danger (had most bottom 4 places and fewest top 5 places in all the ways of looking at the data)
Todrick
John
Jermaine

Boys most likely to be safe.
Most top 5 and fewest Bottom 4 places

Casey and Lee

with Alex and Andrew being in third place in one of the two lists.

Dial Idol

DI score
5.850 Lee DeWyze
3.269 Alex Lambert
2.762 Tim Urban
2.198 Casey James
1.796 Michael Lynche
1.394 Andrew Garcia
0.793 Aaron Kelly
0.717 Todrick Hall
0.415 Jermaine Sellers
0.008 John Park

Total Votes Cast Rank
1 Aaron Kelly
2 Lee DeWyze
3 Casey James
4 Alex Lambert
4 Michael Lynche
5 Andrew Garcia
6 Tim Urban
8 John Park
9 Todrick Hall
10 Jermaine Sellers


States Won
7 Lee DeWyze
6 Tim Urban
5 Alex Lambert
4 Casey James
2 Andrew Garcia
1 Aaron Kelly
1 Michael Lynche
1 Jermaine Sellers
1 John Park
0 Todrick Hall
1 Tie
21 No Vote
50 Total

Iphone App

Ranked by Votes
1 Lee DeWyze
2 Casey James
3 Tim Urban
4 Alex Lambert
5 Michael Lynche
6 Andrew Garcia
7 Aaron Kelly
8 Todrick Hall
9 Jermaine Sellers
10 John Park

Ranked by number of voters
1 Lee DeWyze
2 Michael Lynche
3 Casey James
4 Alex Lambert
5 Andrew Garcia
6 Tim Urban
7 Aaron Kelly
8 Todrick Hall
9 Jermaine Sellers
10 John Park

Vote Fair

Ranking By Vote Fair
1 Casey James
2 Lee DeWyze
4 Andrew Garcia
4 Aaron Kelly
5 Alex Lambert
6 Michael Lynche
7 Todrick Hall
8 John Park
9 Jermaine Sellers
10 Tim Urban

MSNBC did not have a who wil be voted off poll

Idol Democracy numbers not out yet. Will do those when they show up

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Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings
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03-03-10, 06:18 PM (EST)
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10. "Idol Democracy Week Two"
LAST EDITED ON 03-04-10 AT 06:23 PM (EST)

16.5 Lee DeWyze
16.4 Casey James
14.5 Michael Lynche
13.6 Alex Lambert
11.5 Tim Urban
7.9 Andrew Garcia
6.2 John Park
6.1 Aaron Kelly
4.3 Todrick Hall
2.9 Jermaine Sellers

ETA: Girls

26.8 Crystal Bowersox
14.0 Siobhan Magnus
13.0 Lilly Scott
8.7 Katie Stevens
8.7 Lacey Brown
7.5 Didi Benami
7.0 Katelyn Epperly
4.9 Michelle Delamor
4.8 Paige Miles
4.7 Haeley Vaughn

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Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings
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03-04-10, 08:34 AM (EST)
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11. "Top 10 Girls"
Overall Summary

Adding up how many times girls are in the top 5 or in the bottom 4 to see who is likely safe and who might be at risk.

The top of the leaderboard is pretty clear with these three girls being the three with the most times in the top 5 and the least times in the bottom 4

Crystal Bowersox
Siobhan Magnus
Katelyn Epperly

The likely going home is a lot less clear.

Michelle is at the bottom of both lists and wasn't top 5 on any poll.

Paige is the only other one on the bottom 4 of both lists so may be the other boot.

People in the bottom 4 of one or the other list
Didi
Katie (this supprised me)
Lacey
Haeley

Dial Idol

DI score
5.769 Paige Miles
4.684 Crystal Bowersox
4.507 Siobhan Magnus
3.896 Katelyn Epperly
3.127 Haeley Vaughn
2.119 Katie Stevens
1.884 Didi Benami
1.494 Lilly Scott
1.135 Michelle Delamor
0.729 Lacey Brown

Total Votes Cast Rank
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Lilly Scott
3 Siobhan Magnus
4 Katelyn Epperly
5 Didi Benami
6 Katie Stevens
7 Paige Miles
8 Lacey Brown
9 Michelle Delamor
10 Haeley Vaughn


States Won
11 Crystal Bowersox
4 Paige Miles
3 Siobhan Magnus
3 Haeley Vaughn
2 Lacey Brown
2 Lilly Scott
1 Michelle Delamor
1 Didi Benami
1 Katelyn Epperly
0 Katie Stevens
0 Tie
22 No Vote
50 Total

Iphone app

Ranked by Votes
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Lacey Brown
3 Siobhan Magnus
4 Haeley Vaughn
5 Katelyn Epperly
6 Katie Stevens
7 Lilly Scott
8 Paige Miles
9 Michelle Delamor
10 Didi Benami

Ranked by number of voters
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Siobhan Magnus
3 Katelyn Epperly
4 Lilly Scott
5 Didi Benami
6 Lacey Brown
7 Katie Stevens
8 Michelle Delamor
9 Paige Miles
10 Haeley Vaughn

Vote Fair

1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Didi Benami
2 Siobhan Magnus
3 Lilly Scott
4 Katie Stevens
5 Katelyn Epperly
6 Michelle Delamor
7 Lacey Brown
8 Paige Miles
9 Haeley Vaughn

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03-04-10, 11:43 AM (EST)
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12. "Week Two What Not To Sing"
This week's ratings

88 Crystal Bowersox
85 Siobhan Magnus
80 Katelyn Epperly
77 Lilly Scott
54 Paige Miles
40 Didi Benami
40 Katie Stevens
34 Michelle Delamor
32 Lacey Brown
6 Haeley Vaughn


72 Alex Lambert
71 Lee DeWyze
68 Michael Lynche
50 Casey James
46 Aaron Kelly
45 Andrew Garcia
28 Tim Urban
22 John Park
21 Todrick Hall
17 Jermaine Sellers

Average Ratings

83.0 Crystal Bowersox
78.5 Siobhan Magnus
72.0 Katelyn Epperly
69.5 Lilly Scott
50.5 Didi Benami
46.0 Michelle Delamor
41.5 Katie Stevens
40.0 Paige Miles
19.5 Lacey Brown
9.0 Haeley Vaughn
...
22 Janell Wheeler
14 Ashley Rodriguez

66.5 Casey James
64.0 Lee DeWyze
60.0 Andrew Garcia
56.0 Michael Lynche
45.0 Alex Lambert
43.5 Aaron Kelly
25.5 Todrick Hall
22.0 John Park
16.0 Tim Urban
15.0 Jermaine Sellers
...
31 Joe Muņoz
26 Tyler Grady

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03-10-10, 07:48 AM (EST)
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13. "Top 8 Girls"
Overall Summary

Counted up top 4 rankings and bottom 3 rankings (2 for States won)

Most likely to be safe
Siobhan Magnus
Crystal Bowersox
Didi Benami (tied with Lilly on top 4 placings)

Most likely to go home.

Paige Miles
Katie Stevens

With Katelyn and Lacey chasing them down for those bottom two spots

Does look like some girls got a pretty large number of votes from a small number of people so hard to know if that will be enough to save them, or not.


Dial Idol

Discore
8.545 Crystal Bowersox
4.385 Lacey Brown
3.001 Katelyn Epperly
2.557 Siobhan Magnus
1.688 Didi Benami
0.677 Lilly Scott
0.471 Katie Stevens
0.431 Paige Miles

Total Votes Cast Rank
1 Siobhan Magnus
2 Crystal Bowersox
3 Didi Benami
4 Lilly Scott
5 Katie Stevens
6 Katelyn Epperly
7 Lacey Brown
8 Paige Miles


States Won
9 Crystal Bowersox
8 Siobhan Magnus
5 Lacey Brown
4 Lilly Scott
1 Paige Miles
1 Katelyn Epperly
0 Didi Benami
0 Katie Stevens
0 Tie
22 No Vote
50 Total

Iphone App

Ranked by Votes
1 Katie Stevens
2 Siobhan Magnus
3 Paige Miles
4 Didi Benami
5 Crystal Bowersox
6 Katelyn Epperly
7 Lacey Brown
8 Lilly Scott

Ranked by number of voters
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Siobhan Magnus
3 Didi Benami
4 Lacey Brown
5 Lilly Scott
6 Katelyn Epperly
7 Katie Stevens
8 Paige Miles

Vote Fair

Ranking By Vote Fair
1 Siobhan Magnus
2 Crystal Bowersox
3 Lilly Scott
4 Katelyn Epperly
5 Didi Benami
6 Katie Stevens
7 Paige Miles
8 Lacey Brown








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Estee 55194 desperate attention whore postings
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03-10-10, 11:10 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: Top 8 Girls"
It does look like Katie has a small, dedicated pack of cramped-finger devotees willing to burst capillaries for the cause. (Imagine if she'd gotten VFTW behind her at the same time: the combined numbers would just about mean automatic safety.) Most of those voters are probably her age or a little younger. And pretty much all of them hit the internal Mute button whenever the judges begin to speak...
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03-10-10, 11:03 AM (EST)
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14. "Week Three What Not To Sing"
Overall Average Top 8 Girls

84.7 Crystal Bowersox
77.3 Siobhan Magnus
63.7 Lilly Scott
61.7 Katelyn Epperly
58.0 Didi Benami
35.7 Katie Stevens
31.3 Lacey Brown
31.3 Paige Miles

This Week's Data

88 Crystal Bowersox
75 Siobhan Magnus
73 Didi Benami
55 Lacey Brown
52 Lilly Scott
41 Katelyn Epperly
24 Katie Stevens
14 Paige Miles

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03-11-10, 08:05 AM (EST)
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18. "The Boys"
Over all average rankings

64.7 Michael Lynche
64.7 Casey James
59.0 Lee DeWyze
49.3 Alex Lambert
48.7 Andrew Garcia
38.0 Aaron Kelly
33.0 Todrick Hall
29.0 Tim Urban


This week

82 Michael Lynche
61 Casey James
58 Alex Lambert
55 Tim Urban
49 Lee DeWyze
48 Todrick Hall
27 Aaron Kelly
26 Andrew Garcia

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03-10-10, 06:52 PM (EST)
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16. "Idol Democracy Week Three"
35.9 Crystal Bowersox
12.1 Siobhan Magnus
9.9 Lilly Scott
9.3 Katie Stevens
9.2 Didi Benami
8.3 Paige Miles
8.1 Lacey Brown
7.3 Katelyn Epperly

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03-11-10, 05:13 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Idol Democracy Week Three"
The Boys

24.2 Michael Lynche
15.7 Casey James
14.6 Tim Urban
14.4 Alex Lambert
11.0 Lee DeWyze
7.8 Andrew Garcia
7.2 Aaron Kelly
5.1 Todrick Hall

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03-11-10, 08:02 AM (EST)
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17. "Top 8 Boys"
LAST EDITED ON 03-11-10 AT 08:03 AM (EST)

Overall

Todrick is the only one in the bottom three on both lists, so it seems likely it is the end of the road for him.

The other guy at risk will like come from this group.

Andrew
Casey
Aaron

Hard to tell if the support for Tim is spread out, or just the worsters, so I will have him on my at risk list at well, although the stats seem to indicate he may be safe.

Dial Idol

Discore
11.552 Michael Lynche
3.242 Andrew Garcia
2.546 Alex Lambert
1.868 Aaron Kelly
1.429 Lee DeWyze
0.929 Casey James
0.824 Todrick Hall
0.721 Tim Urban

Total Votes Cast Rank
1 Casey James
2 Aaron Kelly
3 Tim Urban
4 Lee DeWyze
5 Michael Lynche
6 Alex Lambert
7 Andrew Garcia
8 Todrick Hall

States Won
10 Michael Lynche
5 Tim Urban
4 Alex Lambert
2 Lee DeWyze
1 Andrew Garcia
1 Casey James
1 Todrick Hall
0 Aaron Kelly
0 Tie
26 No Vote
50 Total

Iphone App

Ranked by Votes
1 Lee DeWyze
2 Aaron Kelly
3 Tim Urban
4 Todrick Hall
5 Alex Lambert
6 Michael Lynche
7 Casey James
8 Andrew Garcia

Ranked by number of voters
1 Casey James
2 Tim Urban
3 Michael Lynche
4 Alex Lambert
5 Andrew Garcia
6 Lee DeWyze
7 Aaron Kelly
8 Todrick Hall

Vote Fair

Ranking By Vote Fair
1 Lee DeWyze
2 Casey James
3 Andrew Garcia
4 Alex Lambert
5 Michael Lynche
6 Aaron Kelly
7 Tim Urban
8 Todrick Hall


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03-11-10, 05:22 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Dial Idol and Other Poll Data"
Sorry to interrupt, but I didn't want to start a whole new thread...
could somebody please tell me if it is possible to watch tonight's show online?
Thanks!

As you were.

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03-11-10, 05:31 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Dial Idol and Other Poll Data"
I don't think AI or Fox puts full episodes on line as they usually want to sell Itune's videos and those wouldn't be up tonight.

You might google American Idol and Live Stream, but I can't be sure any of those are legal. I think some blogs do a live stream with chat kinda thing.

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03-11-10, 05:35 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Dial Idol and Other Poll Data"
Thanks for the advice.
I only watch the show for the articles, not the pictures. I mean, I watch to hear the judges comments, not to hear the singers themselves, so iTunes does me no good! I'll try googling.
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03-11-10, 05:46 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Dial Idol and Other Poll Data"
MJ's big blog usually has the whole prepackage to judges comments up for the show, but usually doesn't do the drawn out torture the contestants with the results stuff.
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03-11-10, 05:44 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Dial Idol and Other Poll Data"
I thought Top Idol mentioned a live feed last night but when I went back to look for it, I couldn't find it.

I recall being able to find a live feed for Big Brother when it was preempted by football, so try googling "american idol live feed".

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03-17-10, 06:39 AM (EST)
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25. "Top 12 Idols"
Overall Summary

These 4 Idols had the most top 5 appearances on the various lists so are most likely to be safe. Also none of them had any appearances in the bottom 5 on any list

Siobhan Magnus
Crystal Bowersox
Lee DeWyze
Casey James

The following 3 showed up in the bottom five the most time

Andrew Garcia
Aaron Kelly
Paige Miles

Of these three only Andrew didn't get any top 5 rankings.

These three may also be at risk as they either showed up in the bottom 5 frequently or didn't show up in the top 5 very much

Tim Urban
Michael Lynch
Lacey Brown

The Poll Data


DI Score
7.270 Lee DeWyze
3.295 Crystal Bowersox
2.025 Siobhan Magnus
1.939 Katie Stevens
1.771 Didi Benami
1.629 Casey James
1.239 Michael Lynche
1.196 Tim Urban
0.974 Lacey Brown
0.632 Aaron Kelly
0.288 Paige Miles
0.233 Andrew Garcia

Ranked by Vote Total
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Siobhan Magnus
3 Aaron Kelly
4 Casey James
5 Didi Benami
6 Lee DeWyze
7 Michael Lynche
8 Katie Stevens
9 Andrew Garcia
10 Tim Urban
11 Paige Miles
12 Lacey Brown

States Won
13 Lee DeWyze
7 Crystal Bowersox
7 Siobhan Magnus
2 Casey James
1 Andrew Garcia
1 Katie Stevens
1 Tim Urban
0 Michael Lynche
0 Didi Benami
0 Aaron Kelly
0 Lacey Brown
0 Paige Miles
0 Tie
18 No Vote
50 Total

Iphone Vote Total
1 Lee DeWyze
2 Siobhan Magnus
3 Katie Stevens
4 Paige Miles
5 Lacey Brown
6 Crystal Bowersox
7 Casey James
8 Aaron Kelly
9 Andrew Garcia
10 Michael Lynche
11 Didi Benami
12 Tim Urban

Iphone Number of Voters
1 Siobhan Magnus
2 Crystal Bowersox
3 Lee DeWyze
4 Didi Benami
5 Casey James
6 Michael Lynche
7 Tim Urban
8 Lacey Brown
9 Andrew Garcia
10 Aaron Kelly
11 Katie Stevens
12 Paige Miles

Vote Fair
1 Siobhan Magnus
2 Crystal Bowersox
3 Lee DeWyze
4 Casey James
5 Didi Benami
6 Michael Lynche
7 Lacey Brown
8 Aaron Kelly
9 Andrew Garcia
10 Katie Stevens
11 Tim Urban
12 Paige Miles

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03-17-10, 03:21 PM (EST)
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26. "Idol Democracy top 12"
22.0 Crystal Bowersox
19.0 Siobhan Magnus
8.1 Michael Lynche
8.0 Casey James
7.7 Katie Stevens
6.1 Lee DeWyze
5.8 Lacey Brown
5.0 Didi Benami
4.9 Andrew Garcia
4.8 Aaron Kelly
4.4 Tim Urban
4.3 Paige Miles
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03-19-10, 06:50 AM (EST)
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27. "What Not To Sing"
Top 12
88 Siobhan Magnus
75 Crystal Bowersox
66 Didi Benami
63 Lee DeWyze
56 Aaron Kelly
52 Casey James
52 Paige Miles
50 Katie Stevens
44 Michael Lynche
25 Lacey Brown
25 Tim Urban
18 Andrew Garcia

Average Ratings
82.3 Crystal Bowersox
80.0 Siobhan Magnus
61.5 Casey James
60.0 Didi Benami
60.0 Lee DeWyze
59.5 Michael Lynche
42.5 Aaron Kelly
41.0 Andrew Garcia
39.3 Katie Stevens
36.5 Paige Miles
29.8 Lacey Brown
28.0 Tim Urban

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03-19-10, 01:39 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: What Not To Sing"
The Average Ratings lists looks like a PTTE list!
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03-19-10, 03:30 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: What Not To Sing"
No idea why--
http://community.realitytvworld.com/cgi-sys/cgiwrap/rtvw2/community/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=2886&forum=DCForumID44&omm=11



If there is anything the nonconformist hates worse than a conformist, it's another nonconformist who doesn't conform to the prevailing standard of nonconformity. - Bill Vaughan

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03-24-10, 07:34 AM (EST)
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30. "Top 11"
Well that was a night.

Overall summary: Looking at number of times in the top 5 or bottom 5 of each stat.

Crystal, Siobhan and Casey are most likely to be safest being in the top four on both lists (with Lee and Aaron being the other people who showed up in the top 4 once each)

Looking a the lower overall rankings the bottom two should be Paige and Tim with Katie and Andrew the two most likely to join them in the bottom three.


DI Score
8.198 Crystal Bowersox
2.928 Casey James
2.643 Aaron Kelly
2.053 Michael Lynche
2.012 Didi Benami
1.743 Katie Stevens
1.569 Andrew Garcia
1.561 Siobhan Magnus
1.180 Paige Miles
1.138 Lee DeWyze
1.048 Tim Urban

Ranked by Vote Total
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Siobhan Magnus
3 Lee DeWyze
4 Casey James
5 Tim Urban
6 Aaron Kelly
7 Didi Benami
8 Michael Lynche
9 Katie Stevens
10 Andrew Garcia
11 Paige Miles

States Won
13 Crystal Bowersox
5 Casey James
3 Aaron Kelly
2 Siobhan Magnus
2 Michael Lynche
2 Didi Benami
1 Andrew Garcia
1 Tim Urban
0 Lee DeWyze
0 Katie Stevens
0 Paige Miles
2 Tie
19 No Vote
50 Total

Iphone Vote Total
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Siobhan Magnus
3 Lee DeWyze
4 Casey James
5 Aaron Kelly
6 Didi Benami
7 Michael Lynche
8 Katie Stevens
9 Tim Urban
10 Andrew Garcia
11 Paige Miles

Iphone Number of Voters
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Siobhan Magnus
3 Lee DeWyze
4 Didi Benami
5 Michael Lynche
6 Aaron Kelly
7 Casey James
8 Katie Stevens
9 Tim Urban
10 Andrew Garcia
11 Paige Miles

Vote Fair
1 Siobhan Magnus
2 Crystal Bowersox
3 Lee DeWyze
4 Casey James
5 Didi Benami
6 Aaron Kelly
7 Michael Lynche
8 Katie Stevens
9 Paige Miles
10 Tim Urban
11 Andrew Garcia

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03-24-10, 07:36 AM (EST)
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31. "Prelim What not to Sing"
LAST EDITED ON 03-24-10 AT 07:53 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 03-24-10 AT 07:52 AM (EST)

Top 11 performances

Top 11
84 Crystal Bowersox
62 Siobhan Magnus
59 Casey James
56 Lee DeWyze
51 Michael Lynche
41 Didi Benami
38 Aaron Kelly
37 Katie Stevens
22 Tim Urban
14 Andrew Garcia
3 Paige Miles

There is only one song ranked lower than Paige if her standing doesn't change much when they finalize the data.

Season Averages

82.6 Crystal Bowersox
76.4 Siobhan Magnus
61.0 Casey James
59.2 Lee DeWyze
57.8 Michael Lynche
56.2 Didi Benami
41.6 Aaron Kelly
38.8 Katie Stevens
35.6 Andrew Garcia
29.8 Paige Miles
26.8 Tim Urban

ETA: If you had any deja vu last night

"I Heard It Through The Grapevine for the fourth time.
Crazy Little Thing Called Love, for the fourth time.
I Don't Want To Miss A Thing for the sixth time.
Against All Odds for the, surely you jest, seventh $%^&* time!"

Average Rating (before last night)

49.0 I Heard It Through The Grapevine
46.0 I Don't Want To Miss A Thing
43.3 Crazy Little Thing Called Love
36.5 Against All Odds

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03-24-10, 03:49 PM (EST)
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32. "Idol Democracy top 11"
34.4 Crystal Bowersox
10.7 Siobhan Magnus
9.9 Katie Stevens
8.2 Casey James
6.7 Michael Lynche
5.9 Tim Urban
5.6 Lee DeWyze
5.2 Didi Benami
4.8 Andrew Garcia
4.5 Aaron Kelly
4.0 Paige Miles
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03-24-10, 04:32 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: Idol Democracy top 11"
Heh. It pi$$es off the judges that Tim is more popular than Lee, one of the contestants their hopes are pinned on.

Tim wasn't *supposed* to even be in it.

Tim is gaining popularity (from tweens?) and they're afraid that Tim's support could keep growing, the way Kris's did last season. I'm not rooting for Tim to win, but he doesn't deserve their sh!tty attitude. So, lol at the judges. I hope Tim doesn't get the boot tonight just to pi$$ them off even more. Heh. They cast him!

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03-24-10, 05:02 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: Idol Democracy top 11"
I'm with you, zazzy.

Tim is the new Sanjaya. I hope he sticks around a while. He seems like a nice kid, who is way out of his league.

His performance last night was lovably awful, unlike Paige, who was just kind of sad. She needs to get out before she gets even more chewed up. I think Tim knows he's the fodder and is just as surprised as anyone that he's still around.


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03-24-10, 05:27 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: Idol Democracy top 11"
I hope he knows he's fodder, I mean how could he not with the "you shouldn't be here" carp from the judges. At least it seems he has a good excuse for the "might as well have fun while I'm here" attitude. With some of the others it sounded more like a cop out or cover for whatever the real reason was behind the bad singing.

It seems like they usually know the themes a couple in advanced if they changed this one at the last minute it could easily mean song switches that weren't really a good idea. May be why so many oft repeated songs this week. At least those are cleared and the band knows how to play them so you can do a last minute swap with them.

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03-24-10, 05:39 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: Idol Democracy top 11"
Hadn't thought about the theme switch. Good point. Maybe the teen top songs meant boosting Tim even more? LOL! So they tried to change it...but he isn't as awful as the rap he's getting. For me, he's easier to listen to then Chris Richardson... and there are many who've been top 10 who are worse or the same caliber as Tim...so, HAH! if he makes the tour tonight...they cast him, they need to live with it.

Like you, Snidget, at least I am entertained by him.

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03-25-10, 01:07 AM (EST)
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37. "RE: Idol Democracy top 11"
Sign me up for the Tim fan club as well. I actually think his voice has a very pleasant tone; he's just extremely limited in what he can do with it. But he really didn't deserve the carp he got from the judges last night - Kara & Simon in particular seemed irritated by his mere existence. I'm hoping he pulls through another couple of weeks just to see how much more hysterical the judges can get.
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03-25-10, 09:45 AM (EST)
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38. "RE: Idol Democracy top 11"
Yea! We got our wish. I'm glad Tim's from a big family so that he gets lots of support and encouragement outside of the AI bubble. I feel like he knows how he's being used/handled by the show--from his facial expressions when receiving judges' criticism--& like when he went "wooow" at one of Simon's glancing blows this week. So, on to a Sanjaya-esque 7th place or an earlier boot out of the top 10?

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03-31-10, 07:57 AM (EST)
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39. "RE: Dial Idol and Other Poll Data"
Overall summary

The same 4 people are in the group with the most occurances in the top 4 of the various lists and didn't show up in any of the bottom 4 slots of any list.

So least likely to go home:
Crystal
Siobhan
Casey
Lee

There are three people who either showed up in none of the top 4 slots or showed up in the bottom 4 slots with one being in both lists

Tim was both
Katie
Aaron

With
Didi, Michael and Andrew in the hunt for a bottom three spot.


The ranking lists:


DI Score
7.458 Crystal Bowersox
3.891 Lee DeWyze
3.017 Casey James
2.897 Michael Lynche
2.619 Didi Benami
2.135 Siobhan Magnus
1.418 Aaron Kelly
1.313 Katie Stevens
0.982 Tim Urban
0.543 Andrew Garcia

Ranked by Vote Total
1 Siobhan Magnus
2 Crystal Bowersox
3 Casey James
4 Katie Stevens
5 Lee DeWyze
6 Tim Urban
7 Andrew Garcia
8 Aaron Kelly
9 Didi Benami
10 Michael Lynche

States Won
13 Crystal Bowersox
6 Lee DeWyze
3 Casey James
3 Siobhan Magnus
2 Aaron Kelly
2 Michael Lynche
1 Didi Benami
1 Andrew Garcia
0 Tim Urban
0 Katie Stevens
1 Tie
18 No Vote
50 Total

Iphone Vote Total
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Lee DeWyze
3 Siobhan Magnus
4 Andrew Garcia
5 Casey James
6 Didi Benami
7 Michael Lynche
8 Tim Urban
9 Katie Stevens
10 Aaron Kelly

Iphone Number of Voters
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Lee DeWyze
3 Siobhan Magnus
4 Andrew Garcia
5 Casey James
6 Didi Benami
7 Michael Lynche
8 Tim Urban
9 Katie Stevens
10 Aaron Kelly

Vote Fair
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Siobhan Magnus
3 Lee DeWyze
4 Casey James
5 Didi Benami
6 Aaron Kelly
7 Michael Lynche
8 Katie Stevens
9 Andrew Garcia
10 Tim Urban

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03-31-10, 07:59 AM (EST)
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40. "Top 10 What not To Sing"
Preliminary top 10 rankings

Top 10
89 Lee DeWyze
81 Crystal Bowersox
75 Michael Lynche
70 Casey James
65 Andrew Garcia
46 Aaron Kelly
44 Katie Stevens
28 Siobhan Magnus
28 Didi Benami
16 Tim Urban

And the average

82.3 Crystal Bowersox
68.3 Siobhan Magnus
64.2 Lee DeWyze
62.5 Casey James
60.7 Michael Lynche
51.5 Didi Benami
42.3 Aaron Kelly
40.5 Andrew Garcia
39.7 Katie Stevens
25.0 Tim Urban

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03-31-10, 08:46 PM (EST)
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41. "Top 10 Idol Democracy"
Idol Democracy
29.2 Crystal Bowersox
14.5 Lee DeWyze
10.4 Casey James
9.1 Katie Stevens
8.8 Michael Lynche
7.4 Siobhan Magnus
6.4 Andrew Garcia
5.5 Tim Urban
4.8 Didi Benami
3.8 Aaron Kelly
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04-07-10, 07:22 AM (EST)
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42. "Top 9"
Overall Summary (how many times in the top 4 or bottom 4)

So our three most at risk appear to be Tim, Aaron and Andrew. Michael and Katie as outside chances for being in the bottom three.

Our four safest are Crystal, Siobhan, Lee, and Casey so I wouldn't expect to see any of them in the bottom four.

DI Score
6.865 Crystal Bowersox
6.118 Lee DeWyze
3.435 Katie Stevens
2.852 Michael Lynche
2.198 Siobhan Magnus
2.068 Casey James
0.894 Aaron Kelly
0.728 Tim Urban
0.499 Andrew Garcia

Ranked by Vote Total
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Siobhan Magnus
3 Tim Urban
4 Casey James
5 Katie Stevens
6 Lee DeWyze
7 Aaron Kelly
8 Michael Lynche
9 Andrew Garcia

States Won
10 Crystal Bowersox
10 Lee DeWyze
5 Siobhan Magnus
3 Michael Lynche
2 Tim Urban
1 Casey James
1 Aaron Kelly
1 Katie Stevens
0 Andrew Garcia
3 Tie
14 No Vote
50 Total

Iphone Vote Total
1 Lee DeWyze
2 Siobhan Magnus
3 Crystal Bowersox
4 Casey James
5 Katie Stevens
6 Michael Lynche
7 Aaron Kelly
8 Andrew Garcia
9 Tim Urban

Iphone Number of Voters
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Casey James
3 Siobhan Magnus
4 Lee DeWyze
5 Katie Stevens
6 Tim Urban
7 Aaron Kelly
8 Andrew Garcia
8 Michael Lynche

Vote Fair
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Siobhan Magnus
3 Lee DeWyze
4 Casey James
5 Michael Lynche
6 Aaron Kelly
7 Katie Stevens
8 Andrew Garcia
9 Tim Urban

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04-07-10, 07:24 AM (EST)
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43. "What Not To Sing"
Overall Average

82.3 Crystal Bowersox
67.7 Siobhan Magnus
66.6 Casey James
62.6 Lee DeWyze
59.0 Michael Lynche
44.1 Katie Stevens
41.1 Aaron Kelly
40.6 Andrew Garcia
30.0 Tim Urban

Top 9 Performances (* means highest ranking to date)

Top 9
91 Casey James *
82 Crystal Bowersox
71 Katie Stevens *
64 Siobhan Magnus
60 Tim Urban *
53 Lee DeWyze
49 Michael Lynche
41 Andrew Garcia
34 Aaron Kelly

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04-08-10, 01:26 PM (EST)
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46. "RE: What Not To Sing"
The bottom three in top 9 performance rankings was aligned with last nights b3.
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04-07-10, 02:52 PM (EST)
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44. "Top 9 Idol Democracy"
Idol Democracy
30.1 Crystal Bowersox
13.6 Casey James
11.3 Katie Stevens
10.3 Michael Lynche
9.7 Lee DeWyze
9.5 Siobhan Magnus
6.4 Tim Urban
5.4 Andrew Garcia
3.8 Aaron Kelly
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04-08-10, 01:28 PM (EST)
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48. "RE: Top 9 Idol Democracy"
Only 2 of the b3 called correctly; the boot a complete miss.
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04-08-10, 01:24 PM (EST)
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45. "RE: Top 9"
LAST EDITED ON 04-08-10 AT 01:34 PM (EST)

So this Dial Idol info was nearly the most reliable this week:

Ranked by Vote Total
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Siobhan Magnus
3 Tim Urban
4 Casey James
5 Katie Stevens
6 Lee DeWyze
7 Aaron Kelly
8 Michael Lynche
9 Andrew Garcia

B3: Aaron, Michael and Andrew with Aaron being safe: check

B2: Andrew and Michael: check

Boot: Michael: miss, so that suggests to me that Andrew gets more text votes than Michael


This one called it, too, B3, B2, and boot:

Iphone Number of Voters
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Casey James
3 Siobhan Magnus
4 Lee DeWyze
5 Katie Stevens
6 Tim Urban
7 Aaron Kelly
8 Andrew Garcia
8 Michael Lynche

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04-08-10, 01:27 PM (EST)
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47. "RE: Top 9"
From Snidget's post in the Top 9 performance show thread

Early Dial Idol
20.6 Crystal
10.5 Lee
6.5 Siobhan
4.6 Katie
3.4 Casey
2.9 Big Mike
1.5 Aaron
1.4 Tim
0.9 Andrew

I guess all of Andrew's voters text or something.

LOL!

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04-08-10, 01:30 PM (EST)
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49. "RE: Top 9"
Yep! They text and tweet. That's why it's so hard to guess about Andrew in Snidge's office pool. I've wasted a lot of points on the guy. I'm wondering if he will Syesha himself into the top 3.
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04-14-10, 08:12 AM (EST)
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50. "Top 9 Take Two"
Overall Summary

The three most likely to be safe (looking at how often in the top 4 or bottom 4 of all the lists are)

Crystal
Lee
Casey

The two most at risk appear to be

Aaron
Andrew

with

Katie
Tim

most likely being also in the bottom three.

Siobhan and Michael have an outside chance of being in the bototm three, but showed up in the top 4 often enough they are most likely to middle of the pack safe this week.



DI Score
9.840 Michael Lynche
9.702 Crystal Bowersox
6.164 Casey James
4.446 Lee DeWyze
4.436 Aaron Kelly
3.061 Siobhan Magnus
2.002 Tim Urban
1.781 Andrew Garcia
1.552 Katie Stevens

Ranked by Vote Total
1 Tim Urban
2 Siobhan Magnus
3 Crystal Bowersox
4 Katie Stevens
5 Lee DeWyze
6 Casey James
7 Aaron Kelly
8 Michael Lynche
9 Andrew Garcia

States Won
9 Crystal Bowersox
9 Casey James
5 Katie Stevens
4 Michael Lynche
3 Lee DeWyze
2 Siobhan Magnus
2 Aaron Kelly
1 Tim Urban
0 Andrew Garcia
1 Tie
14 No Vote
50 Total

Iphone Vote Total
1 Lee DeWyze
2 Aaron Kelly
3 Michael Lynche
4 Siobhan Magnus
5 Crystal Bowersox
6 Katie Stevens
7 Casey James
8 Tim Urban
9 Andrew Garcia

Iphone Number of Voters
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Casey James
3 Lee DeWyze
4 Tim Urban
5 Michael Lynche
6 Siobhan Magnus
7 Katie Stevens
8 Aaron Kelly
9 Andrew Garcia

Vote Fair
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Siobhan Magnus
3 Lee DeWyze
4 Casey James
5 Katie Stevens
6 Michael Lynche
7 Aaron Kelly
8 Tim Urban
9 Andrew Garcia

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04-14-10, 08:33 AM (EST)
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51. "Top 9 Take Two What Not To Sing"
Overall Average

82.0 Crystal Bowersox
65.1 Casey James
65.0 Siobhan Magnus
64.0 Lee DeWyze
58.4 Michael Lynche
46.0 Katie Stevens
41.3 Aaron Kelly
37.3 Andrew Garcia
34.4 Tim Urban

Elvis night

Top 9-2
80 Crystal Bowersox
74 Lee DeWyze
65 Tim Urban
59 Katie Stevens
55 Casey James
54 Michael Lynche
46 Siobhan Magnus
42 Aaron Kelly
14 Andrew Garcia

Looked at the Data A couple of different ways.

Based on Standard Deviation, Gives an idea of consistency

4.6 Crystal Bowersox
8.7 Aaron Kelly
13.3 Lee DeWyze
14.3 Katie Stevens
14.6 Michael Lynche
15.0 Casey James
20.1 Siobhan Magnus
22.6 Tim Urban
23.4 Andrew Garcia

Drew a linear trend line through and looked at the slope:

Holding Steady
Crystal
Casey
Michael
Aaron

Trending Up
Lee
Katie
Tim

Trending Down
Siobhan
Andrew

They are listed by order of trendline (so highest numbers at the top then going down)

From this I see that Lee, Katie, and Tim kind of have a growth story and that tends to be a good sign for hanging on as people like to see that getting better as the season goes on story.

Siobhan and Andrew can be in trouble as they have that started stronger, but lost their way.

Holding steady keeps you in awhile, but may not win you in the end because people get bored of the always pretty good/good all the time thing.

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04-14-10, 10:02 AM (EST)
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52. "RE: Top 9 Take Two What Not To Sing"
I agree with your conclusion. Siobhan seems to have lost her luster. I wonder if they are messing with her head behind the scenes...because (imo) she wasn't part of their master plan for the season. Or she may just be overwhelmed with the whole experience.

Andrew, on the other hand, has text voters that are the wildcard. He did poorly last night. He was in the bottom 2 last week. He *should* be ripe for a boot. But did you notice the audience's cheering for him after that mediocre at best performance? Randy had to wait to start his comments (and was none to pleased to have to do so because he was on track to be negative about Andrew). I keep thinking "surprise boot"...but since we have two boots I have to consider Andrew. Sigh.

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04-14-10, 07:01 PM (EST)
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53. "Idol Democracy top 9-2"
31.4 Crystal Bowersox
12.2 Lee DeWyze
11.3 Michael Lynche
10.7 Katie Stevens
8.8 Siobhan Magnus
8.3 Tim Urban
8.1 Casey James
5.6 Andrew Garcia
3.7 Aaron Kelly
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04-21-10, 07:38 AM (EST)
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54. "Top 7"
Overall Summary.

How things have changed. Looked at the top 12 and the 3 people with the most vists to the top of the chart then were

Crystal-Siobhan-Lee

They also were not in the bottom group for any stat

Now all these weeks later the three with the most visits in the top 3 and never ranked in the bottom three are

*drumroll*

Crystal-Siobhan-Lee

Who coulda seen that coming!

Looking at who is in the bottom the most

Michael leads the way
Tim and Aaron are tied for second with
Casey workin his way down the char

If you look at who has the least top 3 rankings

Casey and Michael never were at the top
Aaron and Tim only were in the top 3 one time each.

So our at risk group is

Aaron
Casey
Michael
Tim

with Tim and Michael looking like the most likely going home.



DI Score
9.154 Crystal Bowersox
5.684 Lee DeWyze
4.921 Siobhan Magnus
4.516 Aaron Kelly
2.741 Michael Lynche
1.633 Tim Urban
1.352 Casey James

Ranked by Vote Total
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Siobhan Magnus
3 Tim Urban
4 Lee DeWyze
5 Casey James
6 Aaron Kelly
7 Michael Lynche

States Won
16 Crystal Bowersox
7 Siobhan Magnus
4 Aaron Kelly
3 Lee DeWyze
3 Tim Urban
1 Casey James
1 Michael Lynche
1 Tie
14 No Vote
50 Total

Iphone Vote Total
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Siobhan Magnus
3 Lee DeWyze
4 Casey James
5 Michael Lynche
6 Aaron Kelly
7 Tim Urban

Iphone Number of Voters
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Siobhan Magnus
3 Lee DeWyze
4 Casey James
5 Michael Lynche
6 Tim Urban
7 Aaron Kelly

Vote Fair
1 Siobhan Magnus
2 Crystal Bowersox
3 Lee DeWyze
4 Casey James
5 Michael Lynche
6 Aaron Kelly
7 Tim Urban

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04-21-10, 07:40 AM (EST)
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55. "Top 7 What Not To Sing"
Average for the season

83.0 Crystal Bowersox
64.9 Siobhan Magnus
64.8 Lee DeWyze
61.6 Casey James
56.9 Michael Lynche
41.0 Aaron Kelly
33.7 Tim Urban


Top 7
91 Crystal Bowersox
71 Lee DeWyze
64 Siobhan Magnus
45 Michael Lynche
33 Casey James
29 Aaron Kelly
28 Tim Urban


If there is anything the nonconformist hates worse than a conformist, it's another nonconformist who doesn't conform to the prevailing standard of nonconformity. - Bill Vaughan

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04-21-10, 09:44 AM (EST)
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56. "RE: Top 7"
As always, thanks for compiling and posting the data.

Have you any ideas as to why Aaron is getting so many dial idol votes? I just don't get it, but I didn't get the David Archuletta thing much either.

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04-21-10, 09:50 AM (EST)
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57. "RE: Top 7"
I do think that since dial idol (and the Iphone app) give stats as you go along you do sometimes see some "OMG gotta save them" behavior so if they aren't doing well you get people who will vote a lot for them to try to save them.

With dial idol you can set to vote for whichever of a couple people has the lowest DI score.

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04-21-10, 07:02 PM (EST)
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59. "RE: Top 7"
Or this season, whichever has the lowest IQ score.
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04-21-10, 06:54 PM (EST)
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58. "Top 7 Idol Democracy"
E.Freaking.Gad.

Everyone scrambling for the left over crumbs.

44.5 Crystal Bowersox
12.4 Siobhan Magnus
10.8 Lee DeWyze
10.7 Casey James
9.6 Michael Lynche
7.3 Tim Urban
4.8 Aaron Kelly

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04-21-10, 07:05 PM (EST)
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60. "RE: Top 7 Idol Democracy"
Which pretty much confirms what a lot of us believed was happening -- we just didn't know it was this bad.

It looks like Tim has a shot at F4 after all. And maybe even F3. Second place may be within his reach -- but first is a mortal lock. For someone else. And only one someone else.

Now just for the fun of it, imagine what'll happen if Ryan's head games make Crystal decide to quit...

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04-28-10, 07:59 AM (EST)
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61. "Top 6"
Overall Summary--prepare to be shocked

Top two (both most top 3 and fewest bottom 3 visits)

Crystal
Lee


Bottom two (fewest top 3 and most bottom 3 visits)

Michael
Aaron

Middle Two (both were in the top 3, 3 times and bottom 3, 3 times)

Casey
Siobhan

I mean who could have guessed that before the performance show </sarcasm>

The lists

DI Score
5.953 Aaron Kelly
3.722 Crystal Bowersox
2.534 Casey James
2.094 Siobhan Magnus
1.43 Lee DeWyze
1.246 Michael Lynche

Ranked by Vote Total
1 Lee DeWyze
2 Siobhan Magnus
3 Lee DeWyze-2
4 Crystal Bowersox
5 Casey James
6 Siobhan Magnus-2
7 Crystal Bowersox-2
8 Casey James-2
9 Aaron Kelly
10 Aaron Kelly-2
11 Michael Lynche
12 Michael Lynche-2

States Won
13 Crystal Bowersox
8 Siobhan Magnus
5 Casey James
3 Lee DeWyze
2 Aaron Kelly
1 Michael Lynche
1 Tie
17 No Vote
50 Total

Iphone Vote Total
1 Lee DeWyze
2 Aaron Kelly
3 Crystal Bowersox
4 Siobhan Magnus
5 Casey James
6 Michael Lynche

Iphone Number of Voters
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Casey James
3 Lee DeWyze
4 Siobhan Magnus
5 Aaron Kelly
6 Michael Lynche

Vote Fair
1 Siobhan Magnus
2 Crystal Bowersox
3 Lee DeWyze
2 Casey James
5 Michael Lynche
6 Aaron Kelly

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04-28-10, 08:01 AM (EST)
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62. "Top 6 What Not To Sing"
Season averages

80.2 Crystal Bowersox
63.6 Casey James
62.8 Siobhan Magnus
62.2 Lee DeWyze
55.3 Michael Lynche
42.0 Aaron Kelly

Top 6
3 of the 6 had their lowest initial score ever (I've not been updating with the final numbers as I go along. Too much like work)

82 Casey James
55 Crystal Bowersox ~ Lowest score to date
51 Aaron Kelly
44 Siobhan Magnus
41 Michael Lynche ~ Lowest score to date
39 Lee DeWyze ~ Lowest score to date

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04-28-10, 10:43 AM (EST)
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63. "RE: Top 6 What Not To Sing"
I sure would hate to see Casey get the boot when he got such a high WNTS score this week!

Interesting that WNTS is dinging Lee so hard. Must be the pitchiness.

Thanks, Snidget, for compiling these data points each week!

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04-28-10, 02:59 PM (EST)
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64. "RE: Top 6 What Not To Sing"
Dial Idol model had a flaw last night that over weighted calls for Aaron:

http://www.dialidol.com/asp/news/news.asp

Here's part of it:

"Aaron Kelly's prediction is likely inflated much higher than it should be due to a dialing anomaly that seems to have occurred in Pennsylvania and in particular with one dialer in the 724 area code.

You can view this anomaly on the DIHardGraphs page or the GeoPredictions page (especially when you check the Area Code checkbox).

On both pages it is obvious that something is going on with Aaron Kelly that doesn't fit with other contestants. This dialer, combined with low call volume for Aaron is likely providing a misleading prediction. If this data had not been included it is likely that Aaron would have at least been tied with the other contestants instead of being predicted to be safe altogether. I suspect that he even would have ranked much lower."

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04-28-10, 03:15 PM (EST)
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65. "RE: Top 6 What Not To Sing"
Yep, he had really low call volume so even one caller with something funny going on can skew things pretty significantly. I thought something was odd the way he climbed from third to first in a short period of time.
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04-28-10, 07:23 PM (EST)
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66. "RE: Top 6 What Not To Sing"
Considering that Aaron's from around here, I'm not surprised that someone here might be trying all they can to keep him in......
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05-05-10, 07:27 AM (EST)
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67. "Top 5"
Overall Summary.

Crystal and Lee land in my likely to be safe bin (DI score not withstanding) with Casey, Aaron and Big Mike each showing up once and only once in the top two of any poll.

Of the three Michael and Aaron look to be at more risk than Casey (may be having a bottom two scare bump this week) but I'd consider them all at risk of going tonight.

DI Score
7.811 Lee DeWyze
4.875 Michael Lynche
4.810 Aaron Kelly
4.777 Crystal Bowersox
4.658 Casey James

Ranked by Vote Total
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Casey James
3 Lee DeWyze
4 Crystal Bowersox-2
5 Lee DeWyze-2
6 Casey James-2
7 Aaron Kelly
8 Aaron Kelly-2
9 Michael Lynche
10 Michael Lynche-2

States Won
15 Lee DeWyze
12 Crystal Bowersox
6 Casey James
3 Aaron Kelly
1 Michael Lynche
0 Tie
13 No Vote
50 Total

Iphone Vote Total
1 Lee DeWyze
2 Aaron Kelly
3 Crystal Bowersox
4 Casey James
5 Michael Lynche

Iphone Number of Voters
1 Lee DeWyze
2 Crystal Bowersox
3 Casey James
4 Michael Lynche
5 Aaron Kelly

Vote Fair
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Lee DeWyze
3 Casey James
4 Aaron Kelly
5 Michael Lynche

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05-05-10, 07:28 AM (EST)
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68. "RE: Top 5--What Not To Sing"
Season Average

78.3 Crystal Bowersox
62.4 Lee DeWyze
59.5 Casey James
56.7 Michael Lynche
41.0 Aaron Kelly

Top 5
71 Michael Lynche
64 Lee DeWyze
59 Crystal Bowersox
31 Aaron Kelly
18 Casey James ~ Lowest score to date

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05-12-10, 07:38 AM (EST)
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69. "Top 4"
Over all Summary.

In a shocking change from what we all believed Crystal and Lee dominate the top two spots and Michael and Casey have a solid lock on the bottom two spaces.

Raise your hand if you saw that coming. {/sarcasm}

I added in the "states lost" because we really did have enough to have data for several states.


DI Score
4.565 Lee DeWyze
5.204 Crystal Bowersox
2.241 Michael Lynche
1.847 Casey James

Ranked by Vote Total
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Lee DeWyze
3 Casey James-2
4 Crystal Bowersox-2
5 Casey James
6 Lee DeWyze-2
7 Michael Lynche
8 Michael Lynche-2

States Won
13 Crystal Bowersox
12 Lee DeWyze
2 Casey James
2 Michael Lynche
2 Tie
19 No Vote
50 Total

States Lost
0 Lee DeWyze
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Casey James
6 Michael Lynche
22 Tie
19 No Vote
50 Total

Iphone Vote Total
1 Lee DeWyze
2 Crystal Bowersox
3 Michael Lynche
4 Casey James

Iphone Number of Voters
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Casey James
3 Lee DeWyze
4 Michael Lynche

Vote Fair
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Lee DeWyze
3 Casey James
4 Michael Lynche

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05-12-10, 07:39 AM (EST)
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70. "RE: Top 4--What Not To Sing"
77.2 Crystal Bowersox
60.2 Lee DeWyze
59.2 Casey James
55.7 Michael Lynche

Top 5
67 Crystal Bowersox
46 Casey James
30 Michael Lynche ~ Lowest score to date
21 Lee DeWyze ~ Lowest score to date


Duets

75.0 C_L
70.0 C_M

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05-19-10, 07:54 AM (EST)
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71. "Top 3 Data"
You won't believe this.

Overall Summary.

Casey James in the bottom of every single list.

Who could have forseen a Crystal/Lee Finale, evah???


DI Score
13.213 Lee DeWyze
6.099 Crystal Bowersox
2.748 Casey James

Ranked by Vote Total
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Lee DeWyze
3 Crystal Bowersox-2
4 Crystal Bowersox-3
5 Lee DeWyze-2
6 Lee DeWyze-3
7 Casey James
8 Casey James-2
9 Casey James-3

States Won
12 Crystal Bowersox
22 Lee DeWyze
3 Casey James
0 Tie
13 No Vote
50 Total

States Lost
2 Lee DeWyze
3 Crystal Bowersox
18 Casey James
14 Tie
13 No Vote
50 Total

Iphone Vote Total
1 Lee DeWyze
2 Crystal Bowersox
3 Casey James

Iphone Number of Voters
1 Lee DeWyze
2 Crystal Bowersox
3 Casey James

Vote Fair
1 Crystal Bowersox
2 Lee DeWyze
3 Casey James

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05-19-10, 12:40 PM (EST)
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72. "RE: Top 3 Data"
Season Average
75.1 Crystal Bowersox
61.5 Lee DeWyze
55.4 Casey James

Top 3 average
70.0 Lee DeWyze
61.5 Crystal Bowersox
30.3 Casey James
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Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

05-26-10, 07:09 AM (EST)
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73. "Top 2 DI results"
Overall

Number of things that say they won

Lee-4
Crystal-2

Looking at the data, Crystal may have slightly more widespread support, Lee has more rabid fans who voted harder.

It may come down to who has the tween texters, in that case I think Lee may have run away with this.


DI Score
12.008 Lee DeWyze
7.687 Crystal Bowersox

Ranked by Vote Total
1 Crystal Bowersox-3
2 Crystal Bowersox-2
3 Crystal Bowersox
4 Lee DeWyze
5 Lee DeWyze-2
6 Lee DeWyze-3

States Won
22 Crystal Bowersox
19 Lee DeWyze
0 Tie
9 No Vote
50 Total

States Lost
22 Lee DeWyze
19 Crystal Bowersox
0 Tie
9 No Vote
50 Total

Iphone Vote Total
1 Lee DeWyze
2 Crystal Bowersox

Iphone Number of Voters
1 Lee DeWyze
2 Crystal Bowersox
# Voters were close but Lee voters did a lot more votes here

Vote Fair
1 Lee DeWyze
2 Crystal Bowersox

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