LAST EDITED ON 10-19-08 AT 12:33 PM (EST)
"Historically, castaways like to make a tight alliance of 2 and a strong 4 person alliance."
I always like a posts that looks at history:
S1: Tagi4 succeeded mainly because it was season 1 and Sean stuck to his alphabet strategy.
S2: Ogakor was an alliance of 5 from day 1.
S3: Samburu had 2 alliances of 4 that destroyed each other. Boran was mainly an alliance of 3 that got lucky.
S4: Rotu was an alliance of 4 that collapsed. Kathy put together a last minute alliance of 5 to beat them.
S5: Chewing Gum was an alliance of 5 while Suck Job had 4 people at its core. Chewing Gum was able to recruit Shii Ann even if it didn't matter.
S6: Alliances were a mess! The cute girls were an alliance of 3 that recruited Deena against the older women. The guys were in a loose alliance of 5 against 3 outsiders. At merge it was an alliance of 6 that took over but they started eating each other. Fun season!
S7: Both Drake and Morgan started as alliances of 5.
S8: Pre-season alliances affected play too much. At its core, Chapera was an alliance of 5.
S9: Lopevi were the Flab5 while Yasur had 4 burly girls going against 4 bowheads. After the merge, a 6 women alliance collapsed, letting the lone man win.
S10: Koror was an alliance of 5
S11: Casaya appeared as an alliance of 4 Nutballs but we found out that Cirie was their 5th from the start. LaMina was an alliance of 4 that lost.
S12: Nakum's "Axis of Evil" was an alliance of 6 which collapsed after the merge, opening the door for Danni.
S13: Aitutaki was an alliance of 5. The Aitu4 wound up together because of the mutiny. Raro was a mess.
S14: Earl had many alliances. Yau Man was his #2 but he always had many players with him. Moto was originally an alliance of 5 but when it became the 4 Horsemen, they didn't stand a chance against Earl.
S15: Todd had a core 3 that soon added Courtney and Denise to be 5 strong. James replaced Aaron at the merge. Zhan Hu had too many in-fighting to form a solid alliance but they did try to keep 5 players together. However, Frosti tried his luck with Todd at the merge. With a 7 person alliance at the merge, Todd smartly got rid of 1 of his own each time he could before the alliance had a chance to collapse.
S16: Malakal, despite being experienced players, started out as 2 alliances of 4 but the couples alliance gained power when Parvati and Amanda recruited Cirie. Airai was an alliance of 7 that collapsed. The witches' alliance that won the end game was an alliance of 5.
S17: The Onion alliance had 2 players that added Jacquie and Corinne but even they understood they needed a 5th, Bob.
All this to say that, no, historically, the strongest alliances have been made up of 5 people. Larger ones have often collapsed under their own weight while alliances of 4 get beaten (Rotu, Suck Job, LaMina...)
With Marcus, Charlie, Corinne and Bob making up Kota's core, the question is: Who is their 5th? Right now, Marcus seems to count Randy but he may be hoping Ace makes the merge.