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"Opinions need for Week 7 Spoiling Safari"
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
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11-16-01, 09:48 AM (EST)
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"Opinions need for Week 7 Spoiling Safari"

OK, here's the deal... to merge or not merge, this is my question.

I need to decide TODAY whether to setup the Episode 7 picks for tribal reward and immunity challenges or individual reward and immunity challenges.

If we guess wrong, then I just won't award any points for the IC and RC for that week, but I'd still like to get it right.

Right now I'm planning on setting it up as though there will be a "traditional" Ep 7 merge, but I'm taking opinions.

Thanks,
SB

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Opinions need for Week 7 Spoili... wendyp 11-16-01 1
 RE: Opinions need for Week 7 Spoili... esquire 11-16-01 2
   Idea to solve the problem cowboyroo 11-16-01 4
 RE: Opinions need for Week 7 Spoili... dabo 11-16-01 3
   Weird dabo 11-16-01 5
 RE: Opinions need for Week 7 Spoili... turtle 11-16-01 6
 RE: Opinions need for Week 7 Spoili... anotherkim 11-16-01 7
   No need to delay AyaK 11-16-01 8
       RE: No need to delay zzz 11-16-01 9
           RE: No need to delay Loree 11-16-01 11
 Traditional Merge Krautboy 11-16-01 10
   RE: Traditional Merge zzz 11-16-01 12
 RE: Opinions need for Week 7 Spoili... Outfrontgirl 11-16-01 13
   RE: Opinions need for Week 7 Spoili... zzz 11-16-01 14
       RE: Opinions need for Week 7 Spoili... Outfrontgirl 11-16-01 15
           RE: Opinions need for Week 7 Spoili... zzz 11-16-01 18
 SB -- How 'bout a compromise... Bungler 11-16-01 16
 Change of thoughts AyaK 11-16-01 17
   RE: Change of thoughts SurvivorBlows 11-16-01 20
 Going with traditional merge SurvivorBlows 11-16-01 19
   RE: Going with traditional merge Bungler 11-16-01 21
       RE: Going with traditional merge SurvivorBlows 11-16-01 22

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wendyp 2081 desperate attention whore postings
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11-16-01, 09:57 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Opinions need for Week 7 Spoiling Safari"
I think you should go with the traditional merge. I bet it still happens, they were trying to keep us all guessing. Plus Bungler's vid cap where he says the mail is big.

Great game, thanks for all the work!!

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esquire 1089 desperate attention whore postings
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11-16-01, 10:26 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Opinions need for Week 7 Spoiling Safari"
I think it has to be a merge in episode 7. It would seem unfair even for MB to only tell one tribe that a merge might not be taking place after episode 6.
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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings
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11-16-01, 10:36 AM (EST)
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4. "Idea to solve the problem"
Why not in list of choices put the names of all the individual contestants AND the tribes. That way each person voting is also guessing whether or not there will be a merge. So the list would read:

Brandon
Teresa
Clarence
blah
blah
blah
Samburu
Boran

That way you cover all options....

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dabo 25344 desperate attention whore postings
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11-16-01, 10:35 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Opinions need for Week 7 Spoiling Safari"
Go ahead and set things up for the traditional merge, I'd say. It looks like MB gave each tribe sufficient supplies at the beginning to reach the traditional merge, it may be one of his options to delay it a bit, but it's 50/50 at worst that the traditional merge won't happen in number seven.

"If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few miserable individuals might linger, but even these in a year or two would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")

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dabo 25344 desperate attention whore postings
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11-16-01, 10:46 AM (EST)
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5. "Weird"
I just checked out the Yahoo game, it's set up for tribes in week 7 instead of individuals (for immunity, they don't have reward as part of that game), but they also still have Lindsey listed as a contestant and absolutely no one got any points for week 6. Are there any other games out there that might serve as indicators (yahoo obviously hasn't got things figured out)?
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turtle 23 desperate attention whore postings
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11-16-01, 12:07 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Opinions need for Week 7 Spoiling Safari"
I'm strongly leaning towards NO MERGE next week, at least not before another TC. I just can't imagine that if MB's intention was to break up old tribal loyalties that he wouldn't give it more than 6 days and at least one more TC. Given the fact that the 10th person is non-jury anyways, it seems feasible to hold off on the merge.

The longer the Boranians spend apart, the more concerned they have to become about their alliances. Especially since they've had to compete against each other on 4 occasions now - must have been really hard for Ethan, Clarence, and KimJ to watch Lex, Tom, and Kelly gorge themselves on sandwiches, pasta salad and cookies, while they went home to their half a cup of cornmush...a little resentment brewing perhaps? Besides, team competitions are way more exciting to watch than individual challenges. 3 more days with Brandon and Kim P, and Lex, Tom, and Kelly may have themselves the making of a new team....of sorts.

MB is an evil bastard, and he's no dummy - don't you think he's thought of all this???

I've only heard two remotely reasonable criticisms:
1) it was unfair of JP to forewarn Boran, but not Samburu, and if he really meant it he would have told both teams... to which I say, since when has MB been fair? Besides, JP's comment was only a suggestion, not a promise.

2)merging at uneven strength of 9 instead of 10 people is unfair...but then that was always a possibility in previous series, wasn't it? (i.e. if Skupin hadn't kissed the fire, Kucha probably would have gone in 6-4). This scenario would just make the next IC *supremely* important...and if planned beforehand, as I expect it was, MB could have anticipated that any remaining tribal loyalties would falter on the side going in with 5 members - remain loyal to your old tribemates? or run with your new numerical dominance and wipe the other side out? Even if that doesn't happen, it still throws yet another variable into the game, making strategizing all the more difficult post-merge, which was EXACTLY MB's intent. (who can I trust anymore? he was my friend before...can I still count on him now? why is he whispering with her, are they plotting against me now? etc. - the possibilities are gleefully endless!)

The way I see it MB is thumbing his nose at everyone - contestants, viewers, and spoilers alike - for criticizing his baby. He made that abundantly clear with that lovely shot of the antelope last week! He won't be happy til he's thoroughly f*cked us all over. I say expect the unexpected - no merger next week....

Heck, who knows? Maybe MB will come through with his 3 tribes at 9 people after all!!! And imagine what THAT would do to setting up the SB picks!!!

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anotherkim 14419 desperate attention whore postings
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11-16-01, 12:20 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Opinions need for Week 7 Spoiling Safari"
As if I am EVER right ....okay, I did get them right last week, but that wasn't exactly brain surgery .


I think he will have the merge at 7, too. He didn't have Jiffy warn Samboohoo, which would have also left the audience all abuzz, and the food was rationed out on that basis. If it ISN'T next week, he will have to cough up some food.

Things are all even right now--well, the new tribes are even. I think it is time to move on to the next level. He has messed with their heads enough . The merged tribes will be too interesting for him to pass up during sweeps. He NEEDS to grab viewers. Dragging it out, then showing a recap show will just cause the show to lose momentum.

Kim

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AyaK 10083 desperate attention whore postings
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11-16-01, 01:10 PM (EST)
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8. "No need to delay"
There's no need to delay the merge any further. MB has managed to get all the dynamics he wanted -- the Mall Rats are broken, and any more Samburu TCs would increase the "old Boran" majority. Also note that Jiffy did NOT caution the Samburu about the merge.

In my opinion, MB wants to put the tribes together while there are still enough Mall Rats left to make a difference: Right now we have the "Boran 5" plus Clarence, the GXA 2, and the OFA 2.

I think the merge takes place now.

(Also, I think Kelly sticks with her tribe -- she seems to do too much work ever to side with the lazy GXA. I don't think we are at all clear about the suballiances within Boran, but I think we'll find out!)

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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
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11-16-01, 01:38 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: No need to delay"
AyaK--

In the preview, Tom clearly seemed to know that there might be a delayed merge. We were not shown them being told, but I think it is safe to assume they were told at some point. Perhaps at the RC when they recapped the prior TC and talked about Silas getting booted or perhaps at TC. I tend to think at RC. There is a lot we are not shown and for us that would have just been info we got already the last episode.

As far as things getting played out, remember that MB likes to keep them guessing and make things unpredictable. Post-merge, ratings dropped off for S2. The show is just more interesting and less predictable prior to the merge. Why not delay the merge one more episode and give the cross-tribal alliances 3 more days to try to solidify.

If you argue they can merge because without a merge, things are pretty predictable, I would argue that things are pretty predictable no matter what. We all know old-Samburu is soon to be extinct. We all believe Clarence will be the first to go among the old-Borans. Only the final 5 (which will be covered completely in the last 2 episodes) promises any real drama (don't we all believe we already know who the final 5 will be). So at this point, just stop watching and tune back in for the last 2 episodes (just joking AyaK--I know you would not miss a second of any episode of Survivor).

So, given that, why not make things a little more unpredictable and interesting and confusing to the players and delay the merge one episode.

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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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11-16-01, 03:36 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: No need to delay"
I do not think it will be as predictable as all the original Samburus being booted first and then Clarence with L/E/T/Ke/MK in final 5. There is always the unexpected. Not to mention IC winners ruining the plot. I think we will see some movement of alliances when they merge. For instance the Boran people seem to like Frank. But LTK have been led to believe he is difficult and unlikeable. Plus LTK seem to truly like KimP and Brandon even if they do find them lazy. Where the Boran tribe is being told they are bad. So people may start to doubt each other's opinions and alliances. Ethan has always been rather paranoid. Clarence is always worried about being trusted. Kelly says she doesn't trust anyone. The minute anyone sees anyone off talking alone there will be doubts and mistrust. I can't wait until this merge. It should be very interesting.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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11-16-01, 03:31 PM (EST)
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10. "Traditional Merge"
Old Boran is now in control of both new tribes. Delaying the merge any further will only strengthen Old Boran's position and make the post-merge game that much more predictable. MB does not want that. Merge in EP7.

In addition, having the recap episode fall just after the merge makes sense, because it is a natural breaking point anyway. That way when we come back to the show everyone is competing for individual rewards and individual immunity. It becomes the next chapter of the story...

Krautboy

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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
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11-16-01, 03:40 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Traditional Merge"
kraut--

You said--

>Old Boran is now in control
>of both new tribes. Delaying
>the merge any further will
>only strengthen Old Boran's position
>and make the post-merge game
>that much more predictable. MB
>does not want that. Merge
>in EP7.
>

Old Boran will also be in control of the merged tribe. Why is it any less predictable post-merge if the merge happens in E7? Either way, it is pretty predictable, and at least without a merge we have to guess which tribe wins immunity. It also screws with the players' heads and gives 3 more days of inter-tribe bonding.

>In addition, having the recap episode
>fall just after the merge
>makes sense, because it is
>a natural breaking point anyway.
>That way when we come
>back to the show everyone
>is competing for individual rewards
>and individual immunity. It becomes
>the next chapter of the
>story...

Why is that any more of a natural break than right before the merge? If there is a merge E7, then there would be individual IC in E7, an episode before the break. If there is a merge E8, individual ICs will begin right after the break. In S2, the break was between E8 and E9, after 2 individual IC episodes. The natural break theory does not seem to be very significant.

P.S. Take a look at the new VidCap thread I started and tell me if you think the picture of Clarence carrying the idol affects your thinking.

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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11-16-01, 03:44 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Opinions need for Week 7 Spoiling Safari"
LAST EDITED ON 11-16-01 AT 03:54 PM (EST)

I think Burnett might stick with 3 or more episodes with the swapped tribes. Jeff said, I see old tribal lines are still a factor. What if he keeps the swapped tribes together long enough to force them to bond?

That way next episode is not centered around a possible tie or prior votes. Since everyone is likely to share prior votes when they merge, and we have already had the plot focus on prior votes for two episodes, it's getting tiresome.

My main problem with switching to individual immunity is that Teresa's the remaining person on Diane's list, which has been 100% to date, and why would they boot her in 7 unless they have reason to think they're still competing as teams in 8? Once they merge, I see Teresa as safe for quite awhile.

Also, Les Moonves said they threw them curve balls (plural) and they appear to get an unwelcome surprise in their treemail.

btw, is it not a neat irony that "Will There Be a Feast Tonight?" airs on Thanksgiving?

Edit: I was just listening to Lindsey's mostly tedious live chat, and she said that Mark Burnett told her he had the switch planned before the game started. She said, "believe me, I asked!"

She also talked about being interview by the "producers" before TC. It's easy to forget that Burnett is on set when we see this on TV. Clearly there are some exchanges with him, and we should not assume he doesn't hand Samburu a caution about assumptions simply because we don't see it at TC.

And, as has been pointed out, we see a highly edited TC. Perhaps the TV drama with Lindsey would have been lessened (in Burnett's opinion) if Jeff's merge comment had been shown on air at the end, and MB decided it was enough of a teaser for the viewers to see it once.

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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
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11-16-01, 03:51 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Opinions need for Week 7 Spoiling Safari"
Outfrontgirl--

I am not sure I followed your post completely. Are you suggesting the merge could be later than E8? If you are, it seems the merge would not provide for more bonding but rather provide for a merge of only old Boran people left. I think that E8 is about as late as it could be pushed, especially if the jury remains at 7.

With or without a merge, E7 will not be centered around past votes. Either way, old Boran has the votes to eliminate whomever they want. MB is going to have a hard time making the next few episodes suspenseful. He will try his best to hide the Boran alliance but it will be very difficult.

I also agree, and have been saying in a number of places, if Diane's list is correct and Teresa is booted E7, then there is NO merge E7. The evidence for no merge seems to be adding up--see my post on new VidCaps that shows Clarence with the idol apparently going to the next IC.

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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11-16-01, 04:05 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Opinions need for Week 7 Spoiling Safari"
zzz--probably my post was hard to follow because I don't yet have any firm conclusions; I'm merely listing the things that bother me.

I agree that a merge delayed past 8 seems very odd, and I'm not ready to say it's likely.

On the other hand, if there's no merge in 7, but they are told it will happen in 8, and Boran goes to TC in 7--why would they boot Teresa? I am sure Ethan would want to boot the IC threat, Clarence. They've been planning to do that all along (per some Insider clip I saw)--to boot Clarence just pre-merge. Ethan is big on eliminating "threats."

Teresa simply doesn't represent a threat of any kind in the merge episode. Therefore, if they DO boot her in 7, it's because they still don't know if they will merge in 8, IMO.

Alternative: Diane's list fails on just one person.

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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
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11-16-01, 04:15 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Opinions need for Week 7 Spoiling Safari"
Outfrontgirl--

You wrote:

>On the other hand, if there's
>no merge in 7, but
>they are told it will
>happen in 8, and Boran
>goes to TC in 7--why
>would they boot Teresa?
>I am sure Ethan would
>want to boot the IC
>threat, Clarence. They've been
>planning to do that all
>along (per some Insider clip
>I saw)--to boot Clarence just
>pre-merge. Ethan is big
>on eliminating "threats."
>
>Teresa simply doesn't represent a threat
>of any kind in the
>merge episode. Therefore, if
>they DO boot her in
>7, it's because they still
>don't know if they will
>merge in 8, IMO.
>
>Alternative: Diane's list fails on just
>one person.

If you have been reading my posts in other threads, you probably know that this is exactly what I have been saying. The only way Teresa is booted E7 is if there is no merge E7 and they are not told there will be a merge E8. I think there still would be a merge E8, Boran just could not assume it at the E7 TC. If there is a merge E7 or if they are told there will be a merge E8 (why would they be told--the point sees to be to keep them guessing), then Teresa would be very safe. Even if they did not go after Clarence because of tribal loyalties, Frank (or a GXAer in a merge situation) would be higher on the hit list as a bigger threat.

At this point, the evidence I see is pointing toward an E8 merge with Teresa getting the boot in E7 (probably to MB's dismay as he seems to like Frank and Teresa and her boot would make an intertribal alliance--something MB desparately wants--almost impossible). But what do I know? I thought all the evidence pointed toward 3 tribes (although in my defense I always acknowledged that a swap was also consistent with the evidence).

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Bungler 497 desperate attention whore postings
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11-16-01, 04:07 PM (EST)
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16. "SB -- How 'bout a compromise..."
LAST EDITED ON 11-16-01 AT 04:12 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 11-16-01 AT 04:10PM (EST)

Is there any way you could go with it as a traditional merge, involving individuals (list all 10 left), but if it doesn't turn out that way and the tribes stay intact for this week or longer, anyone who picks an individual who is ON that winning tribe gets the points? Does that make sense?

i.e.
if you pick Kelly, Tom, Lex, Brandon or Kim P. for your RC or IC winner, but it's actually Samburu that wins, you still get the points

and if you pick Mama, Ethan, Frank, Teresa or Clarence for your RC or IC, but it's actually Boran that wins, you get the points

That way you cover your bases both ways. If it turns out individual, you have a one in 1 in 10 shot of getting it right, but if it's still tribes your chances are even better in getting it right based on a single individual you like and getting points. I'd hate to sacrifice the points. I'm a point whore, and after two weeks of tanking, I'm on my way back up. LOL!

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AyaK 10083 desperate attention whore postings
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11-16-01, 04:13 PM (EST)
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17. "Change of thoughts"
Whoops, I changed my mind here. Now I'm leaning toward no merge, based on the indications that Teresa really does go next. See this post:

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/1814.shtml#5

SB, as far as the game goes, I like cowboyroo's option, if you can do it for this week. List the individuals PLUS the two tribes for the challenges, and let everyone decide for themselves whether or not the merge happens.

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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
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11-16-01, 04:23 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Change of thoughts"
I've decided to no go with cowboyroo's idea, no offense to him, but I don't care for it. It makes the individual player decide what's going to happen, and I'd like for all players to have an even playing field for getting the points.

Plus, the fact that number of points that are awarded for a correct pick varies between an individual and tribal challenge further complicates things. I designed the game to be flexible, but this is something I never considered having to deal with -- I think the game would handle it, but I'd rather not find out

-SB

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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
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11-16-01, 04:17 PM (EST)
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19. "Going with traditional merge"
OK, I've flipped the switch to let the Ep7 picks assuming there to be a traditional merge... if the Ep 7 challenges end up being tribal rather than individual, then no points will be awarded for those picks.

Now that this is resolved, moving this topic to the SS forum.

-SB

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Bungler 497 desperate attention whore postings
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11-16-01, 04:44 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Going with traditional merge"
SB -- didja see my suggestion above? Might be a workable solution, if you can make the script flex right on the scoring.
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
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11-16-01, 06:47 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Going with traditional merge"
I just read it now... I'd thought of that, but it's not a good fit, I might pick an individual to win an individual challenge while I wouldn't have any confidence in his entire tribe to win a tribal challenge. It's not fair to the players and I don't want to receive any complaint emails about this next week. Frankly I don't have any time to re-program the smallest part of the game, MB is going to have to find someone else to go jump through his hoops...

If the merge ends up being delayed, then everyone loses out of a possible 500 points. If there is a merge, then everyone has the potential to earn 1000 points (since SS awards twice as many points for picking the individual winners as for the tribal winners.)

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