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"TAR17 Casino Game - Wk4 Results / Wk5 Entry"
Jims02 7328 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-20-10, 11:32 PM (EST)
 
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"TAR17 Casino Game - Wk4 Results / Wk5 Entry" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-20-10 AT 11:37 PM (EST)First to LastI wonder how often that seems to happen? Probably less than the average would be, but it's still interesting when it does. Like others have pointed out elsewhere, it was a good leg of the race, though, in terms of the tasks. Nothing seemed like a contrived task made up by the producers to fit the country. All of the tasks felt pretty authentic to me... Although I'm not an expert on Northern European countries, so they might've been throwing fits. Week 3 Results
1st place - Nat/Kat (2.2x)
2nd place - Gary/Mallory (1.5x)
3rd place - Brook/Claire (1.4x)
4th place - Michael/Kevin (1.4x)
5th place - Jill/Thomas (1.1x)
6th place - Nick/Vicki (1.4x)
7th place - Chad/Stephanie (.5x)
8th place - Katie/Rachel (.3x)
9th place - Johnathan/Connor (0x) A Fork in the RoadThis was an interesting week of scoring, as it was very "Feast or Famine" for people. There were plenty of people who surged ahead with their scores, but there were also a few that had a tough week. Some people seemed to bank on a Nat/Kat bounce-back, and it helped their scores greatly. Johnathan/Conner's huge fall was unexpected by many, as well. We also had a new player this week, Nume. Enjoy yourself here and remember, the first cocktail is on the house! The Greatest Gainer Award goes to IanQuentin, who climbed 23 ranks to #13 overall. Sweetness.  The Perfect Bet Award technically goes to 5cats (2.5x) alone, who made an All-In bet on Nat/Kat, and the number rounding did the rest of it. Also, with less rounding-fueled All-In Kat/Nat bets were Yogi, ARNutz, IanQuentin, michel, beau_30, and Nume. Way to go! And the very special Thankfully Late Entry Award goes to Georjanna, whose All-In Jonathan/Conner bet was nullified by being a mere 7 minutes late. I suspect something in your subconscious knew that was going to happen, and prevented you from getting to your computer.  Leaderboard
1. Yogi - 163
2. vennui - 97
3. louislam - 95
4. popeave - 68
5. Jims02 - 62
6. ARNutz - 55
7. sarah1234 - 52
8. kidflash212 - 46
9. mikey - 40
10. Belle Book - 38
11. flipxycd - 34
12. Molaholic - 34
13. IanQuentin - 33
14. CTgirl - 31
15. michel - 29
16. Georjanna - 28
17. MzTee - 28
18. cahaya - 27
19. KwietOne - 27
20. Weez - 26
21. chiubakka - 24
22. HistoryDetective - 22
23. bbenzenberg - 20
24. beau_30 - 20
25. Ontheroadagain - 19
26. Snidget - 17
27. Starshine - 16
28. jbenz - 15
29. Deshawnator22 - 15
30. FFantasyFX - 14
31. vince3 - 14
32. shilfiell - 14
33. Element King - 11
34. samboohoo - 11
35. esquire - 11
36. Nume - 11
37. kduck - 10
38. taffnic - 5
39. 5cats - 5 Yogi's got a nice lead going now. It should be interesting to see if anyone can unseat the champ! Week 5 Payout Table
1st place - 2x
2nd place - 1.6x
3rd place - 1.4x
4th place - 1.2x
5th place - .8x
6th place - .6x
7th place - .4x
8th place - 0x The TAR Casino Game is now closed to new entrants. One note about the Loser Bonuses, as I saw a couple people allude to the idea that it would be a risk-less bet. The Loser Bonuses do indeed raise the payout for most all of the ranks, but the exception of the rule is last place. Last place will always score 0x, regardless of whether that team was eligible for a Loser Bonus. I would hate for someone to be eliminated due to some confusion over a rule (thankfully, it didn't happen last week!), so it's worth reiterating. Bonus Game - Who Doesn't Finish Where?(Ever wondered what the kids would look like if the Lucky 9 game got married to the 5 True Statements game?) Place a bet and see if you can win it. For the first bonus wager of the season, the goal is to fill in the blanks of all 4 of the following statements with a correct answer. ___(Team A)____ and ___(Team B)_____ don't finish 1st or 8th.
___(Team C)____ and ___(Team D)_____ don't finish 2nd or 7th.
___(Team E)____ and ___(Team F)_____ don't finish 3rd or 6th.
___(Team G)____ and ___(Team H)_____ don't finish 4th or 5th. Here's the catch. You can only use each team once in the statement set. (And no, you may not use any previously eliminated team or fake team in your statements. You know you thought about doing that.) If all 4 of your statements turn out to be true, then you win the bet. If you get even one of them wrong, you lose the whole wager. For example, if you say that Brooke/Claire don't finish 3rd or 6th, and they end up finishing 3rd... Then the wager is lost, regardless of any other right answers. It's not a wager for the faint of heart. Here's the Payout Table for this Bonus Game. Bonus Payout Table
Correct Answer - 10x
Incorrect Answer - 0xMax Bet - 8 points As you can see, if you get a correct answer, it could mean a huge payday.  For example, a valid entry would look something like: Bonus Game - 8 points Brook/Claire and Chad/Stephanie don't finish 1st or 8th.
Gary/Mallory and Jill/Thomas don't finish 2nd or 7th.
Katie/Rachel and Michael/Kevin don't finish 3rd or 6th.
Nat/Kat/ and Nick/Vicki don't finish 4th or 5th. Use all 8 teams in your statement and you got yourself a valid entry. If you duplicate one of them, I gotta dismiss the whole bonus entry. TAR17 Teams Remaining
Brook/Claire
Chad/Stephenie
Gary/Mallory
Jill/Thomas
Katie/Rachel
Michael/Kevin (+0.1)
Nat/Kat (+0.1)
Nick/Vicki (+0.2) So, do you go for the extra bonuses and go for a huge payoff, or is it still just not worth it? It's up to you! 
This entry is so late for the sole sake of figuring out what the odds of winning the bonus game is based off of random chance. I ended up using the logic that each individual guess would be right 3/4ths of the time, and did (3/4)^8, which was about a 10% chance of winning. There's definitely something wrong with that logic, as the first guess would have a (6/8) chance of being correct, but the second and third guesses' probabilities' should be adjusted (5/7? 6/7?)... That's how you calculate odds in poker, after all. It might be the same way. Eventually, I just gave up and went with the straight probability because I got tired of dealing with it this late. I try to be statistically fair with all the odds, although they always skew in our favor (since we can sometimes eliminate certain teams as possibilities). So if the odds are actually worse, then chalk it up to our advantage we get. If anyone knows their probability theory really well, I'd be really interested to see what the actual probability would be and how you got there.
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vince3 17341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-21-10, 07:45 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: TAR17 Casino Game - Wk4 Results / Wk5 Entry" |
I don't have much to lose... 14 points total... let's go for broke.
Regular bet 6 points. Nick/Vicki
Bonus: Max bet 8 points
Michael/Kevin and Gary/Mallory won't finish 1st/8th
Brook/Claire and Nick/Vicki won't finish 2nd/7th
Nat/Kat and Jill/Thomas won't finish 3rd/6th
Chad/Stephanie and Katie/Rachel won't finish 4th/5th
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esquire 1089 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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10-21-10, 10:46 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: TAR17 Casino Game - Wk4 Results / Wk5 Entry" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-21-10 AT 10:48 AM (EST)3 on the Doctors 8 points on the bonus Jill/Thomas and Nat/Kat don't finish 1st or 8th.
Katie/Rachel and Brook/Claire don't finish 2nd or 7th.
Michael/Kevin and Chad/Stephanie don't finish 3rd or 6th.
Gary/Mallory and Nicki/Vicki don't finish 4th or 5th
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cahaya 18904 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-21-10, 08:59 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: TAR17 Casino Game - Wk4 Results / Wk5 Entry" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-21-10 AT 09:16 PM (EST)I ended up using the logic that each individual guess would be right 3/4ths of the time, and did (3/4)^8, which was about a 10% chance of winning. There's definitely something wrong with that logic, as the first guess would have a (6/8) chance of being correct, but the second and third guesses' probabilities' should be adjusted (5/7? 6/7?)... That's how you calculate odds in poker, after all. You were on the right track with the 5/7 guess. The spaces are exclusive, so it's not like independently rolling an 8-sided dice for each of them, i.e., not (3/4)^8. The simplest example of the probability space is with 4 teams and you want two of them to not be 3rd and 4th (i.e. you want them to be 1st and 2nd, either way). Total spaces and wins for four team scenario:
1 2 3 4 *win
1 2 4 3 *win
1 3 2 4 lose
1 3 4 2 lose
1 4 2 3 lose
1 4 3 2 lose
2 1 3 4 *win
2 1 4 3 *win
2 3 1 4 lose
2 3 4 1 lose
2 4 1 3 lose
2 4 3 1 lose
3... 6/6 lose
4... 6/6 lose = 4/24 wins = 1/6
or
2/4 * 1/3 = 1/6. Extrapolate that for 8 teams as you had already guessed:
6/8 * 5/7 * 4/6 * 3/5 * 2/4 * 1/3 =
720/20160 =
1/28. (0.0357142857) 28x (instead of 10x) would make it even. (eta) After looking at this more closely... the formula is Odds = 1/sum(1:n-1), where n is the number of teams. For example, the four team scenario is 1/(1+2+3) = 1/6 and the eight team scenario is 1/(1+2+3+4+5+6+7) = 1/28. Tada!I'll be back to post my bets a bit later!
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cahaya 18904 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-22-10, 07:56 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: TAR17 Casino Game - Wk4 Results / Wk5 Entry" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-22-10 AT 08:59 PM (EST)18. cahaya - 27 Ok, here's my bet for this week: 19 on Nat/Kat. 8 on the bonus:
Not 1st/8th place - Brook/Claire, Nick/Vicki
Not 2nd/7th place - Michael/Kevin, Jill/Thomas
Not 3rd/6th place - Nat/Kat, Katie/Rachel
Not 4th/5th place - Gary/Mallory, Chad/Stephanie
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Jims02 7328 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-21-10, 11:09 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: TAR17 Casino Game - Wk4 Results / Wk5 Entry" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-21-10 AT 11:24 PM (EST)Awesome work, cahaya! Very interesting! I use similar probability in calculating pot odds in poker, so I was thinking it was similar... When I was doing it, I got hung up on the fact that after you make your first guess at (6/8) odds, whether the odds would be different for guessing the second half of the pair versus doing a brand new one. Among my scribblings, I see I wrote in (6/8)*(5/7)*(4/6) and then I scribbled it out. I must've argued myself out of it. There's a statistics research paper in this somewhere. When you get famous for your new problem, you better give me credit! I see now that I grossly underestimated the odds, but there's nothing that I can do about it now. Increasing the odds will just throw off the weight of the bonus game in comparison to the regular wager. I wonder what the odds would be if you felt really good about one or two of your picks. Like, if maybe you were sure that Nat/Kat would do well again and were sure that Katie/Rachel would finish at the bottom, so you stick them in the 4th/5th spots. Then those two trials could be removed (or changed to something high like 90-95%). Assuming 100% certainty for the first two guesses, wouldn't the probability improve to just? 4/6 * 3/5 * 2/4 * 1/3 = 24/360 = 1/15 = 15x By that logic, you'd have to be sure of 3 answers for there to be even odds? 3/5 * 2/4 * 1/3 = 6/60 = 1/10 = 10x Perhaps I've messed up the stats and removing some of the trials would have unforeseen consequences (like combinations not working). Maybe what I'm really saying in this bonus game is that I assume all of you are good enough to get 3 questions right automatically. I've decided that I'm going to play this bonus game irregardless to show cahaya that I can beat the odds! Also, that I'll score huge if I hit and everyone misses!
Maybe I should've done a 1st/2nd, 3rd/4th, 5th/6th, 7th/8th split to help those odds out.The original plan was to do "_____ doesn't finish 1st" and "_____ doesn't finish 2nd" all the way down the line (8 statements total), but I decided that that version would be too easy to win, as I'd only be able to offer 3x. Although now that I think about it, that game wouldn't have been (7/8)^8. It probably would've been 8x. Crap. 
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cahaya 18904 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-22-10, 00:18 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: TAR17 Casino Game - Wk4 Results / Wk5 Entry" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-22-10 AT 07:25 PM (EST)Yeah, the 1/28 is based on a totally random outcome with no comparative advantage for any team. You're right, if you're 100% positive about how two teams will play out, then your odds go up to 1/15 (as if in a six team scenario) and if you can confidently nail three teams out of eight, there's your offered 1/10 odds for the remaining random five! So, yeah, I think it's fair enough and I'll give it a shot, too! Yup, the one slot to avoid per team works out to 1/8. The odds are 7/8 * 6/7 * 5/6 * 4/5 * 3/4 * 2/3 * 1/2 = 5040/40320 = 1/8, or Odds = 1/n.
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Weez 160 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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10-21-10, 11:06 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: TAR17 Casino Game - Wk4 Results / Wk5 Entry" |
Jill/Thomas - 12
Nat/Kat - 13
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Nume 109 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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10-22-10, 07:18 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: TAR17 Casino Game - Wk4 Results / Wk5 Entry" |
All in Nat/Kat.
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Molaholic 8451 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-22-10, 08:29 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: TAR17 Casino Game - Wk4 Results / Wk5 Entry" |
I'm going to stick to my guns and avoid any kind of bonus bet -- especially one that involves such skeery math.My 15 point jump may be an all-time personal best, btw. And I may be subject to some form of altitude sickness... 23 Jims on the Docs
11 Jims on Gary & Mallory A Prime betting strategy, if I may say so...
Seana, mistress of siggies 2010
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KwietOne 1083 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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10-22-10, 10:19 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: TAR17 Casino Game - Wk4 Results / Wk5 Entry" |
ALL-IN on Brook/Claire
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Ontheroadagain 923 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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10-23-10, 07:22 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: TAR17 Casino Game - Wk4 Results / Wk5 Entry" |
25. Ontheroadagain - 1918 on the Docs 1 on bonus (Just gotta give it a shot.) Jill/Thomas and Nick/Vicki don't finish 1st or 8th.
Mike/Kevin and Chad/Steph don't finish 2nd or 7th.
Nat/Kat and Brook/Claire don't finish 3rd or 6th.
Gary/Mallory and Katie/Rachel don't finish 4th or 5th.
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flipxcyd 1053 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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10-23-10, 09:03 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: TAR17 Casino Game - Wk4 Results / Wk5 Entry" |
ALL IN on Nat/Kat
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FFantasyFX 1011 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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10-24-10, 01:53 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: TAR17 Casino Game - Wk4 Results / Wk5 Entry" |
Wagers:4 points on Nat/Kat
4 points on Brook/Claire 6 points on the Bonus Game: Chad/Stephanie and Jill/Thomas won't finish 1st/8th
Katie/Rachel and Michael/Kevin won't finish 2nd/7th
Nat/Kat and Nick/Vicki won't finish 3rd/6th
Brook/Claire and Gary/Mallory won't finish 4th/5th
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louislam 454 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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10-24-10, 02:50 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: TAR17 Casino Game - Wk4 Results / Wk5 Entry" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-24-10 AT 02:51 PM (EST)3. louislam - 95 28 on Michael/Kevin (+0.1)
28 on Gary/Mallory
21 on Nat/Kat (+0.1)
10 on Brook/Claire Bonus Game - 8 points Nick/Vicki and Brook/Claire don't finish 1st or 8th.
Chad/Stephenie and Jill/Thomas don't finish 2nd or 7th.
Nat/Kat and Katie/Rachel don't finish 3rd or 6th.
Michael/Kevin and Gary/Mallory don't finish 4th or 5th. The Amazing Race Fan from Hong Kong!
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Jims02 7328 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-24-10, 05:08 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: TAR17 Casino Game - Wk4 Results / Wk5 Entry" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-24-10 AT 06:35 PM (EST)62 points to spend. 54 points on Michael/Kevin. If I'm going to make a move some time, it may as be now. Bonus Game - 8 points Gary/Mallory and Brooke/Claire don't finish 1st or 8th
Chad/Stephanie and Jill/Thomas don't finish 2nd or 7th
Nick/Vicki and Katie/Rachel don't finish 3rd or 6th
Michael/Kevin and Nat/Kat don't finish 4th or 5th I felt good about about 4 of the picks, but the last 3 were pretty much a crap shoot.
A 2003 IceCat original
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chiubakka 81 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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10-24-10, 05:13 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: TAR17 Casino Game - Wk4 Results / Wk5 Entry" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-24-10 AT 05:15 PM (EST)chiubakka 29 pts 15 pts Brook/Claire
5 pts Michael/Kevin bonus game: bet 4 pts Jill/Thomas and Gary/Mallory don't finish 1st or 8th.
Katie/Rachel and Chad/Stephanie don't finish 2nd or 7th.
Nat/Kat and Michael/Kevin don't finish 3rd or 6th.
Brook/Claire and Nick/Vicki don't finish 4th or 5th.
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jbenz 97 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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10-24-10, 06:27 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: TAR17 Casino Game - Wk4 Results / Wk5 Entry" |
15 points
.
.
.
10 points on Michael/Kevin
1 point in the bank 4 points on the bonus: Katie/Rachel and Chad/Stephanie don't finish 1st or 8th.
Gary/Mallory and Jill/Thomas don't finish 2nd or 7th.
Brook/Claire and Michael/Kevin don't finish 3rd or 6th.
Nat/Kat and Nick/Vicki don't finish 4th or 5th.
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Yogi 1139 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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10-24-10, 07:06 PM (EST)
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38. "RE: TAR17 Casino Game - Wk4 Results / Wk5 Entry" |
As usual I am a sucker for bonus points.. Hopefully I won't crap out..Nat/Kat (+0.1) x 100
Michael/Kevin (+0.1) x 55 Bonus x 8 Points Chad/Stephenie and Gary/Mallory don't finish 1st or 8th.
Nick/Vick and Jill/Thomas don't finish 2nd or 7th.
Nat/Kat and Michael/Kevin don't finish 3rd or 6th.
Katie/Rachel and Brook/Claire don't finish 4th or 5th. - Yogi
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michel 10812 desperate attention whore postings
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10-24-10, 07:14 PM (EST)
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39. "RE: TAR17 Casino Game - Wk4 Results / Wk5 Entry" |
15. michel - 29All in on Micheal/Kevin(+0.1) Pass on the bonus. 
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sarah1234 107 desperate attention whore postings
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10-24-10, 07:44 PM (EST)
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41. "RE: TAR17 Casino Game - Wk4 Results / Wk5 Entry" |
sarah1234 - 52
Gary / Mallory - 22
Brook / Claire - 22
Bonus (8 points):
Michael/Kevin or Nick/Vicki won't get 1st / 8th
Nat/Kat or Katie/Rachel won't get 2nd / 7th
Jill/Thomas or Chad/Stephanie won't get 3rd / 6th
Gary/Mallory or Brook/Claire won't get 4th / 5th
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