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"A Look at the Characters"
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michel2 4059 desperate attention whore postings
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02-14-20, 11:02 PM (EST)
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"A Look at the Characters"
Even if my interest in Survivor has diminished drastically over the last 10 seasons, a game reuniting 20 Winners merits attention. As a consequence, while I won't waste 8 hours dissecting the episodes as I used to do, I feel that a look at the characters is in order.


Episode 1

Are we getting Punked?

Portrayals of the Players in Dakal :

1- The Alliance of Disconnected Players:

We saw the formation of an alliance with great potential in Yul, Sophie, Nick and Wendell. Everyone knows that Yul is an extremely smart person and his portrayal certainly reinforced that impression. It must be noted that Sophie, who was also considered a smart player, was shown ready to use Yul’s intelligence to her own advantage. Wendell is remembered as a friendly guy and nothing shown contradicted that feeling.

2- The Poker Alliance was the second one shown and it included Tyson, Kim and Amber who were presented as the popular kids always telling jokes.

3- The third grouping in that tribe consisted of Tony, Sarah and Sandra who are seen as allies mostly because they used to be enemies! Queen Sandra was shown as being very perceptive while Tony was aware of the threat he represents and tried to downplay it. Sarah was shown as a strong person, one of the MVPs of their first Immunity win.

Portrayals of the Players in Sele:

1- The Old School Alliance:
This group consists of Boston Rob, Parvati, Danni and Ethan. Each one of these four had reasons to target each other but they quickly worked out their differences. Boston Rob and Parvati had been enemies in Heroes vs Villains, Ethan had dated Amber while Danni had mentioned Rob’s name as a good target. Despite these possible irritants, these four positioned themselves in the middle of the group deciding which way to go.

2- Jeremy and Natalie: Everyone knew they were close so they were at a big disadvantage. It will be important to see how Jeremy recovers now that he is a free agent.

3- Adam and Denise: The pair was shown making a rookie mistake so it will be hard for them to re-establish their position in the game.

4- Ben: Shown as a floater, Ben acted like a snitch, telling everyone what he heard. It kept him safe for now but the group should soon realize that he cannot be trusted.

5- Michelle: Like she said, her head was spinning and she never established a foothold in the game.

Episode 2

Move Out of the Way

In Dakal, Yul first solidified his alliance with Sophie, Nick and Wendell then went on to recruit Sandra and Sarah assuring him of the numbers and a very powerful alliance. Sandra showed once more her skills at this game when she got everyone to agree on Amber. It was her way of getting revenge on Rob who told her he wouldn’t be playing. Yul and Sandra in the same alliance represent an incredible pool of talents.

With Amber getting voted out and Tyson bending over backwards to ingratiate himself to the majority, Kim finds herself in a precarious position. Yul’s gesture at the end of Tribal Council could be the olive branch she needs to get her footing back in the game.

While the dynamics didn’t directly point to it, the “rapprochement” between Yul’s alliance and Sandra and Sarah leaves Tony with a very bleak outlook. No one in this tribe really needs him.

In Sele, the old school alliance of Boston Rob, Parvati, Ethan and Danni got outflanked by a rejuvenated Jeremy who, finding himself alone, made a new connection with Adam and Ben. The fact that Jeremy saved the tribe from going back to Tribal Council should also weigh heavily in his favor.

Danni and Denise didn’t play a big role in this episode which, from an editing standpoint, indicates that they aren’t in immediate danger.

Michelle got a chance to explain her feelings about being left out of the first vote. The new dynamics could put enormous weight on her next vote. Although she talked to Ben first about her anguish, it should be remembered that, in her first season, Michelle’s strongest bonds were with the women of Kaôh Rông were with the women in the cast. She could be swayed to go with Parvati and Danni instead of Jeremy Adam and Ben even if the two women are connected to Rob and Ethan.


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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: A Look at the Characters Flowerpower1 02-15-20 1
 Themes.... Flowerpower1 02-16-20 2
   RE: Themes.... michel2 02-16-20 3
       RE: Themes.... sj007 02-18-20 4
 Episode 3 - Paranoïd: michel2 02-22-20 5
   RE: Episode 3 - Paranoïd: Flowerpower1 02-27-20 6
       RE: Episode 3 - Paranoïd: michel2 02-27-20 7
 Episode 4 - Setting the Trap: michel2 02-29-20 8
   RE: Episode 4 - Setting the Trap: Flowerpower1 02-29-20 9
       RE: Episode 4 - Setting the Trap: michel2 03-01-20 10
 Episode 5 - Getting it Done: michel2 03-07-20 11
 Episode 6 - The "I'm-NOT-YOUR-BUDDY... michel2 03-14-20 12
 Episode 7 - You Need a Backbone: michel2 03-21-20 13
   RE: Episode 7 - You Need a Backbone... Flowerpower1 03-23-20 14
       RE: Episode 7 - You Need a Backbone... michel2 03-23-20 15
           RE: Episode 7 - You Need a Backbone... Chez 03-24-20 16
               RE: Episode 7 - You Need a Backbone... Flowerpower1 03-24-20 17
           RE: Episode 7 - You Need a Backbone... Sheldor 03-24-20 18
 Episode 8 - Dangerous michel2 03-27-20 19
   RE: Episode 8 - Dangerous Flowerpower1 03-31-20 20
       RE: Episode 8 - Dangerous michel2 03-31-20 21
 Episode 9 - The Lions and the Hyena... michel2 04-03-20 22
   RE: Episode 9 - The Lions and the H... Flowerpower1 04-04-20 23
       RE: Episode 9 - The Lions and the H... michel2 04-04-20 24
           RE: Episode 9 - The Lions and the H... Flowerpower1 04-04-20 25
 Episode 10 - Playing on the Edge: michel2 04-10-20 26
   RE: Episode 10 - Playing on the Edg... Flowerpower1 04-15-20 27
   RE: Episode 10 - Playing on the Edg... Sheldor 04-20-20 29
 Episode 11 - There Will be Blood! michel2 04-17-20 28
 Episode 12 - The Double Agent: michel2 04-26-20 30
   RE: Episode 12 - The Double Agent: PepeLePew13 04-26-20 31
       RE: Episode 12 - The Double Agent: michel2 04-27-20 32
   RE: Episode 12 - The Double Agent: Sheldor 04-27-20 33
   RE: Episode 12 - The Double Agent: Flowerpower1 04-29-20 34
 Episode 13 - Tony's the Boss michel2 04-30-20 35
   RE: Episode 13 - Tony's the Boss Flowerpower1 05-06-20 36
       RE: Episode 13 - Tony's the Boss michel2 05-06-20 37
       RE: Episode 13 - Tony's the Boss Chez 05-06-20 38
 Episodes 14 and 15 - The Final 5 michel2 05-09-20 39
   RE: Episodes 14 and 15 - The Final ... sj007 05-10-20 40
       RE: Episodes 14 and 15 - The Final ... michel2 05-10-20 41
           RE: Episodes 14 and 15 - The Final ... Sheldor 05-11-20 42
               RE: Episodes 14 and 15 - The Final ... sj007 05-13-20 43
   RE: Episodes 14 and 15 - The Final ... Flowerpower1 05-13-20 44
       RE: Episodes 14 and 15 - The Final ... sj007 05-14-20 45
           sj007..... Flowerpower1 05-16-20 46
               FP: michel2 05-16-20 47
                   RE: FP: Chez 05-16-20 48
                       RE: FP: michel2 05-16-20 49
                           RE: FP: Sheldor 05-17-20 50
                               Got It! michel2 05-17-20 54
                   Another trivia question... Sheldor 05-17-20 51
                       RE: Another trivia question... PepeLePew13 05-17-20 52
                           RE: Another trivia question... michel2 05-17-20 53
                               RE: Another trivia question... PepeLePew13 05-17-20 55
                                   RE: Another trivia question... sj007 05-18-20 56
                                   RE: Another trivia question... Sheldor 07-14-20 57

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Flowerpower1 3975 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge"

02-15-20, 12:43 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: A Look at the Characters"
Thank you so much for so eloquently breaking down the associations within the tribes. I agree, for me, Yul is setting himself up very nicely, and will provide a nice shield for Sophie and Nick as well.

Sandra never ceases to amaze me. She knows how to start drama which moves the spot light off of her and even these seasoned vets fall for it every time. Tony was played like a violin. With the heads in full view of Sandra and Rob, she most likely knew she'd have to alienate herself away from Rob, and what better way to do it then to throw shade on him in the beginning. Taking out Amber is one less number for Rob. Telling Tony that Tyson was mentioning his name also threw Tyson under the bus and ignited Tony against him. As always, Sandra is quick on her feet. I love it.

Recognizing that things were not going his way, Tyson quickly made moves as well...I pray that he can survive.

Jeremy losing Natalie at the first vote really resonated with me when he vowed to get them back. I can't help thinking history could repeat itself with Jeremy winning this season for payback to Natalie. And, wouldn't it be something if Natalie were the one to get back into the game....hmmmm?

With the promo shots, it appears that Ben, loose lips, knows something secret from Adam and Denise, makes Adam appear as if he could be next. Is it a red herring or no. The only other duo seen in the preview promo was Boston Rob and Parvati, as Rob contemplates war. Can't wait to see how he delivers. And, I do think we will see it, which also makes me feel like A. Sele will lose the next IC, and B. Rob will survive to exact some kind of revenge later.


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Flowerpower1 3975 desperate attention whore postings
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02-16-20, 12:08 PM (EST)
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2. "Themes...."
As this is the closest thing to the editing thread, at this point, I thought I would comment on some of the themes for the show.

1. Twists. Nick had the confessional regarding the importance of playing the currency of the fire tokens correctly. Just one of the many twists for this season. He's right. The winner will have to navigate and play the twists correctly to win.

2. Family. Tyson got this confessional when he and Parv and Amber were all at the well. Family is important to these players. Players with family: Jeremy, Rob, Amber, Tyson, Kim, Yul, Parvati, Tony, Sarah, Sandra, Denise, Ben, Danni?

Those without kids: Adam, Sophie, Michele, Wendell, Nick, Ethan, Natalie

3. Pre Game Associations: Players are scrambling to shine a light on any and all pre-game associations. Yul had the confessional that brought this up. The winner will have to navigate this. So far we have seen Tyson and Kim get through this. Jeremy seems to want to exact revenge on this....we see Rob will as well. Will it be their demise?



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michel2 4059 desperate attention whore postings
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02-16-20, 01:51 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Themes...."
Nicely put, FP. Yes, the twists and pre-game associations will play a big role while those with a family may have an advantage when it comes to the final vote.

There is another twist that I want to mention:

"A Toast to Survivor": As we saw at the very start of the season when Probst popped a bottle of champagne, this season is mostly a celebration for the show and its host. Therefore, I expect that he'll play a big role in the outcome. Even if we don't have starstruck players like Ciera, maybe we'll see him coercing players into making big moves. Most likely we won't be shown how his twists rig the game to advantage his favorites.


For example, how can we be sure that Sandra was Natalie's true choice for the idol? She probably had no clue but a producer could have made a (not-so-) subtle suggestion. And since Jeremy would have been her obvious choice had her former tribe lost then maybe the challenge was rigged in Sele's favor. How you ask? Simple: Cut an inch or so on the handles of those paddles that Dakal had to hit and their win became nearly impossible with no one realizing it. And, as a result, we had another of those incredible comebacks that are Survivor specialties.


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sj007 72 desperate attention whore postings
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02-18-20, 04:53 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Themes...."
Flower I agree with some points you made in other posts. For me I have never been a fan of eoe and letting players back in the game. It's one thing when no one knows about it and a player surprisingly returns. When you know right from the get go you're still in the game that can change the voting strategy. If you're gonna have a dumb idea like that make it like season 7 where bootees competed as a tribe and if they beat the other tribes in a challenge someone would return. These twists have ruined the game. Already Sandra gets an immunity idol cuz of these stupid fire tokens for not doing anything. Nothing against Sandra but it's a stupid and unnecessary twist. Michel raises a bigger point about this. Production has interfered in prior seasons. It would be so easy for them with all these new twists and stuff to set something up to favor a certain outcome and we wouldn't know it. When Natalie gave that idol to Sandra that immediately raised a red flag for me. Makes no sense. I don't mean to spoil the party for so called huge fans but I've come to realize over the years there is more going on behind the scenes than we know. And if anyone doesn't think so I'm sorry to say your naive and ignorant. Lol rant over!
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michel2 4059 desperate attention whore postings
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02-22-20, 04:45 PM (EST)
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5. "Episode 3 - Paranoïd:"

The episode started on the Edge of Extinction so let’s briefly look at the Portrayal of those Players:

Natalie and Amber: While the cameras gave her a chance to show us that Amber is trying to cope with the situation, there is no doubt that Natalie had the better showing. Of course one could say that the advantage she found in the well didn’t need a clue to find but still, she got there first and was rewarded. She could soon have a treasure of Fire Tokens but we’ll wait to see if she’s the returning player to analyse her game chances.


Portrayal of the Players in Sele:

Boston Rob realized immediately that the Fire Token he’d received probably came from his wife. He shared the news with Parvati and vowed revenge on Sandra if she was the one who targeted his wife. If you have a chance, listen again to the quick change in mood of the music immediately after Jeff said the words “Sele getting their first look at the new Dakal tribe; Amber voted out”. It had been light and jazzy like you expect on a birght sunny afternoon on vacation but it turned into something as somber and menacing as a mid-summer evening right before a thunder storm. Rob saved face by saying he understood but he was boiling inside. However, Rob completely blew the Challenge for his tribe. Rob showed his Robfather side when he got the whole tribe to open up their bags and reveal their content. Did he notice that Denise and Adam, tucked away from the rest of the tribe, didn’t completely empty their bags?

Jeremy: While he didn’t hesitate to accept Natalie’s gift, I’m not sure that it is such an advantage. Imagine the reaction of the other players if they see someone leaving Tribal Council before the vote. It would certainly be something like: We can’t get you this time but wait until next time. At least, Jeremy is in the best position of all to understand the power of the Tokens. Hearing that the vote turned on Danni was great news to Jeremy but he wasn’t completely happy because he still saw Rob and Parvati controlling the tribe and he wanted that control. The first whispers during Tribal Council happened when Rob leaned towards Jeremy to talk about the situation. Wil that little conversation turn those two leaders into allies or is the division permanent?

Parvati: Her confessional after the challenge loss, tried to set the stage for the elimination of a new-school player but that didn’t work out right. In fact the tables turned and Parvati became a target of one of her own. The Old-school players forgot one key rule: An alliance has to be continually nurtured. Danni felt left out so she lashed out, fragmenting the old-school alliance and making it even harder for them to succeed.
Ethan: The old school player got in on many conversations which is a good thing but the outcome may not be so beneficial in the end.

Adam: As much as he was pleased to receive the half-idol, Adam was disappointed that Ben knew about it. The way he told us about Denise’s idea of giving the idol to Parvati showed us that he is a quiet strategist, one that could wreak havoc from behind the scene. Not only was he in the scene with Jeremy, Ben and Ethan but he was also present when Rob talked to Ethan about Danni’s idiotic plan and the final discussion with Jeremy and Michelle. Adam saw an occasion to make a big move and go after Parvati but in the end he settled for Danni which is very wise since it keeps the tribe united at least on the surface but all the while he is advancing his numbers. The walk to Tribal Council ended with Adam saying: “I know that I will never win this game if I don’t take those risks.” One could say he won his first game by never taking a risk but that was then, this is now. I have no idea what to make of the scene where Adam couldn’t get his torch in place and needed Ben’s help. Was it simply comic relief or a way to show that he isn’t smart?

Denise: After finding the idol, she told Ben that she trusted Adam so they thought of using the idol to bring him in. Why did Denise even think of giving half of the idol to Parvati. Adam quickly shot down that idea.

Ben wanted to work on his relationships so he helped Denise find the idol but she gave the other half to Adam. In the end, he was saved even if he had very little to do with it. Certainly he talked to Jeremy, Adam and Ethan about keeping Rob and Parvati while voting out Danni but the decision wasn’t his.

Michelle: She was only involved in the discussion right before Tribal Council about going with the easy vote against Danni or the big move for Parvati.

Portrayal of the Players in Dakal :

Kim started the episode hanging with Yul who was trying to collect fruit. For someone who had been a target in the previous vote, getting close to Yul certainly was a good idea so why didn’t she stick with that plan when she found an idol? Giving the other half to Sophie appears to be a big mistake. Hearing her talk about getting her footing in the game reminded me a lot of her One World confessional where she said she was waiting for the right time to let her voice be heard. I noticed that she said “if it is meant to be” when talking about finding an idol but what if it applies to the whole game? Sophie’s words serve to put a big doubt on Kim’s chances but at the same time, they contained a lot of positive comments like Kim is very nice, the most socially adept person out there and very aware of the game.

Yul isn’t using his time to strategize but to collect fruit. His contraption worked well enough but he only got one small breadfruit.

Sophie: Having received the half-idol she said she shouldn’t have given her the idol, even calling herself the devil. She showed her skills at making puzzles when she teamed up with Sandra to win the Challenge.

Tony: Instead of finding idols and building spy shacks, it seems that Tony is intent on being the tribe’s provider. His ladder nearly killed him but he did get fruits. Like Tyson said however, why is this guy still alive? Tony will have a hard time navigating his way to the end. At least he did provide...laughter!

Tyson: Echoing Wendell and Sophie, Tyson wondered about Tony’s ladder, wondering if it was going to kill him.

Sarah: She was happy that Tony revived the “Cops-R-Us” alliance for all the good that did her the first time!

Sandra: While she played a major part in winning immunity for Dakal, Sandra’s role in this episode was minimal.

Wendell and Nick: Wendell only got to speak a couple of lines during Tony’s ladder scene while Nick was completely shut out.

There are some major characters this season, namely Rob, Jeremy, Parvati, Yul, Tony and Sandra yet one player has had a very nice portrayal in all three episodes and that is Adam. He is in all the conversations and he is quietly positioning himself in a great position on his tribe without attracting attention. Right now, I have to say that Nick is the top contender for the Title of Sole Survivor.

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Flowerpower1 3975 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-20, 09:24 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: Episode 3 - Paranoïd:"
Last week I agreed that I thought of all the characters in the Sele tribe, Adam and then Ethan were in the best spot. Adam had half of Denise's idol. He was tight with Denise. He's tight with Boston Rob. He's great with Jeremy, Michelle, and Ben.

Ethan was tight with Parv, Rob, and apparently with Adam and company.

Now this week, Ethan is gone, and Adam's number is UP. What the heck? Jeremy and Michelle blindsided Rob, Parv, Adam. Looks like Jeremy, Michelle, Ben, and Denise have taken over the game. But, Denise is tight with Adam. So, if they are a vengeful group, Adam, Rob, Denise, and Parv could get some revenge. I would like to hear what Denise says to Adam about the vote last night.

This season we are not getting enough info to even begin to speculate, and I don't like it! For example, when Jeremy and Michelle were blindsided with the Natalie vote, we got NOTHING when they returned from TC. In fact, we are getting nothing upon return from TC.

At this point, to me, it seems as Rob, Parvati, Tony, Sandra don't have a prayer of winning this game. In fact, they are being played as pawns in a group that reveres them. As the leader of the Yul-Sophie-Wendell-Nick alliance, I would bet against a Yul win.

Jeremy, Kim, and Tyson are interesting. All seemingly found themselves on the bottom of their tribes. We see that Jeremy is making moves in a different direction, Kim made a move last week with half of her idol, and next week we see that Tyson is now doing the same. I hope these three can be salvaged, they are among my favorites.

Wendell and Nick have been very upbeat and chill which is great for them. Sophie as the puzzle queen, and with her comments to date, I do find a bit villainous. She's in good stead with a solid group, however. But, if she comes across as arrogant or superior, she'll never win. Ben is also playing great, imo. He appears like a baffoon, but he's made a real effort to connect socially, he's going along with the plan, he's not the alpha. I am hopeful for him.

So far Jeremy is the one that is onto the fire tokens and what they can do for him. Sarah also has a shot.


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michel2 4059 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-20, 09:15 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Episode 3 - Paranoïd:"
I'll have to look at the episode again before I comment on this new situation but as far as Rob, Parvati and Adam being in trouble don't forget that there's bound to be a tribal swap soon and losing Amber, Danni and Ethan might just play in Rob's favor! He's a free agent now and that's an interesting spot.
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michel2 4059 desperate attention whore postings
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02-29-20, 02:33 PM (EST)
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8. "Episode 4 - Setting the Trap: "
This was the first episode that started with a song other than the standard Survivor chants:

“Now that you’re in it
What will you do?
Keep your eyes open
They’re coming for you.”

Those lyrics go well with what I saw as the theme of the episode:

Setting the Trap

Portrayal of the Players in Sele:

Boston Rob: The episode started with Rob (and Parvati) having a laugh at the expense of a sleeping Adam. None of these three would be laughing by the end of the episode. With Michelle’s help, Rob got Sele back in the challenge in which they had trailed from the start but it wasn’t enough. While he did tell Adam he’d go with the plan to eliminate Parvati, Rob doesn’t play like that. Instead he went to Jeremy and Michelle to tell them about Adam’s indiscretion. He tried to get them to flip the game on Adam; they only agreed on the surface.

The game is slipping out of Boston’s Rob’s hands but his misfortune could easily become advantageous should there be a tribal swap. Without allies, Rob is much less dangerous so, with a little luck, he could slip by until he gets an opportunity to flip the game back in his favor.

Michelle: While Ben wanted to go after Rob, Michelle said that they’d be better off going for Parvati and maybe get Rob to side with them afterwards because he wouldn’t have any other choices. After that brutal challenge loss, everyone in camp, it was first Boston Rob and then Michelle who told us about the standoff in the tribe; no one wanted to go off because no one wanted to become a target. It was during her talk with Jeremy that Michelle turned the vote on Ethan. Jeremy liked the idea of weakening Rob. For her, the vote against Ethan instead f Parvati was mostly to give Adam a taste of his own medicine. (Note that Michelle and Jeremy, the two that had been left out of the first vote, are now the ones leaving others out of the loop! We’ve rarely seen that happen so quickly especially without a tribe swap.) She informed Denise and Ben of the situation and kept the power in her and Jeremy’s hands. Michelle told us she felt pressure coming into this season because she knows many viewers don’t give her credit for winning on her first try. (Well! It isn’t called Survivor Sôh Rông for nothing !)

This episode was a great one for Michelle’s chances. More on that later.

Jeremy: While he was quiet in the first part of the episode, Jeremy was the one that first stood up and walked out of camp after the challenge loss. He knew Ben would follow and he certainly did. For Jeremy, it was time to take out the knives.

Jeremy is suddenly back in control, needing only 4 votes to leave the other half of the tribe dazed and confused. It shows that he is a strong player that could easily take it to the end.

Parvati: She was shocked to hear that Adam had broken the cardinal rule of Survivor by telling her closest ally that he was gunning for her.

This wasn’t a good episode for Parvati even though she got a lot of comments from other players about her skills at this game.

Adam: He had the first confessional of the evening, telling us that the three old-timers had been running the show. He knew Rob wanted to be in charge but thought he’d be better served to play a little more like Adam himself was playing. Adam wanted to start targeting the big dogs. Maybe Adam should have listened to his own advice and stayed low-key. Adam quickly tried to get an angle with everyone, first telling Ethan that he had his back. He told us that telling Ethan he was ready to vote against Parvati wasn’t the smartest move but he did it anyway because he wanted Ethan in his corner. Facing Tribal Council Adam set out on a difficult task; vote someone out without angering any of the others. In order to do so, he tried enlisting Rob in the vote to eliminate Parvati. He failed miserably because that almost got him voted out.

Can Adam recover? The viewers followed the game mostly from his perspective until Boston Rob walked away from him and went to talk with Jeremy and Michelle. Just like Jeremy did after the first episode, I expect Adam to rebound nicely from his predicament.

Denise: The episode started with Denise feeling in a good spot because not only did she receive Danni’s Fire Token but Adam gave her the other half of her immunity Idol meaning she can now use its full power. She felt close to Adam and was ready to go after Rob, Parvati and Ethan. After the loss, Denise was still gunning for Parvati. That changed when she heard that Adam had told the plan to Rob.

Ben: He told us that he couldn’t stand Rob. After the challenge loss, he first settled on Parvati because she was good at getting people to work with her.

Those two were mostly shown as pieces in Jeremy and Michelle’s plan. Denise can certainly cause surprises with her idol but they seem like secondary characters for now. It must be noted that after a full season and 4 episodes in a second one, Denise has gone to all but 1 Tribal Councils. That must be a record.

Portrayal of the Players in Dakal:

Yul: He was there when Tyson mentioned Sandra as a target so he told us that, for him, he preferred playing with rational players so while he didn’t trust Tyson, his proposal was a good option. However, Yul wanted to keep the momentum and that meant keeping the tribe fed and Sandra was a big contributor. He didn’t want to lose Sandra.

There’s a nice attention paid to Yul but it’s difficult to analyse his chances since most of the game has been played in Sele.

Sarah: Receiving the clue from Natalie, Sarah realized the perils of her mission if she wanted to get a “steal-a-vote” advantage. (Did Natalie remember that Sarah had benefitted from a “steal-a-vote” advantage before? If that guided her choice well we have to admit Natalie is a very smart player) Like a police officer on the job, she needed back-up so she got her partner, Tony, to help her out. What ensued was the funniest moment of the episode where Tony covered Sarah’s shiny forehead with some dirt. (How perfect that this scene happened on Ash Wednesday! Well, we have to admit that we cannot be sure of the time reference, Survivor being famous for showing scenes out of their actual time frame, it worked very well.) Even if Ethan took a long time before going to bed and that Ben was a light sleeper, Sarah accomplished her mission.

With Tony, she gave us the best scene of the episode and she’s got a lot of momentum going into the second quarter of the game. Her main problem is the trust she’s giving to Tony. Which one will betray the other this time?

Tony: Waking up early, Tony was the first to see that Sandra’s trap had worked; a small shark was trapped in the net. Tony took it out but it nearly bit him. Tony made everyone laugh.

Tony has a rare quality of making the game fun to watch. I think only Boston Rob has as much fun playing this game as this member of “Cops-R-Us”.

Tyson: He said that being everyone’s target was new to him. It was a tricky situation but he’d try throwing Sandra’s name out there.

This wasn’t a very positive portrayal of Tyson. I doubt he’ll figure in the end game.

Sandra: Told us that she was retiring after this season so she wanted to go out in a big way, proving her worth to the tribe. She set a trap with their net to catch fish. Informed by Yul of Tyson’s plan, she vowed that he’d pay the price.

The Queen’s swan song will certainly be memorable but it will be very difficult for her to navigate her way to the end with 2 million dollars weighing her down!

Sophie: With Sarah, Sophie did the puzzle for her tribe. She didn’t play a role in the rest of the episode.

Kim, Wendell and Nick: None played a role in this episode.

Players on Edge of Extinction: While Amber and Danni did well in finding food to eat, Natalie proved she was the superior player when it came time to find the advantage. She now has 3 Fire Tokens but will that get her back in the game?

The Story

While the actual trap was set in Dakal by Sandra who caught a shark (who caught a Tony), the game’s trap was actually used on Sele by Michelle and Jeremy. Was Sandra’s trap symbolic? We will have to wait until Dakal goes to Tribal Council before we can say that scene was a sign of Tony’s demise... and that’s if Sandra and Tony ever wind up in the same Tribal Council.

The trap we have to focus on is the one that was originally set by Adam but smartly turned around by Michelle and Jeremy. The episode showed us the image of a deadly spider.

There’s a parallel to draw between that deadly killer and Jeremy’s game; he quietly sets his group and then catches his opponents unaware of his noxiousness.

Something we have to remember though was that the spider shown had a yellow belly and who is dressed in yellow? Michelle! She has a lot to prove in this game and she came out strong in this episode. Will she carry this momentum to the end? It won’t be easy but there’s one thing working for her: This season is supposed to crown the best player ever but that was the premise of the very first All-Stars and we saw how that turned out. By the end of season 8 no one crowned Amber as the best player ever and that consideration was probably a driving force behind a vote or two that went against Rob, denying him that title. Players’ ego may give Michelle a vote or two if she’s sitting there at the end with Jeremy for example and those votes could prove sufficient to crown her the Sole Survivor.

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02-29-20, 10:16 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Episode 4 - Setting the Trap: "
Excellent, michel! I loved it. Well done!

I have a few items to add to supplement.

First of all I see alot of alphas in Sele and they all talk about getting control. Rob, Adam, Jeremy, and even Michelle talks about taking control, along with Jeremy. There fore, I really feel those that have the best chances at this tribe are the ones that are more laid back and chill....ironically, Ben. Denise. Parv, and Michelle. Parv of them all, will be a target the whole game. But so far her reputation has played harder than she has. I don't like that Jeremy has usurped the control. He's going to be threatening enough later to put a target on his back much earlier. Michelle is in a nice position as are Ben and Denise, the supporting players to Jeremy's lead.

Ben leaving immediately after Jeremy got up post challenge loss was telling. Ben is drinking Jeremy's koolaid.

Adam is in trouble, imo. As is Boston Rob. Boston Rob is definitely being forced to ride in the bus, and he's told us time and time again that if he's in the bus, he has to be driving. Rob could be the next boot. Either he or Adam, imo. Adam is in a bad spot. His number one and his supporting new schoolers did not vote with him, and his buddy, BR, voted for him. Not good.

At Dakal. We have Tyson throwing out Sandra's name, while he has the confessional about how she' s the weakest, blah, blah, we see Sandra providing for her tribe, organizing the fishing net and getting a shark. So, tells me that Tyson will fall short. In Yul's confessional: We want to keep the momentum going and I think one of the components to keep momentum going is to keep morale high and being well fed. And, Sandra is a big part of that.....(Sandra is keeping them well fed, AND I say that Tony is keeping the morale high!!!) So, I know that Tyson is targeting Sandra but I don’t want to lose Sandra.

For me, if Dakal loses, Tyson is toast. Kim has shared her idol with Sophie, so Tyson is numero uno. Sandra and Tony are not only keeping morale high and providing food, they are also 2 big shields for the "unconnected alliance".

Regarding Cops R Us. Tony told us that he has to control his urges, unlike the last time he played, and so far so good. He also tells us this episode that the last time Cops R Us didn't work out so well for Sarah, so now he is going to make it up to her. I hope this lasts because it's Survivor GOLD! Lol!

Michel said:
Tony has a rare quality of making the game fun to watch. I think only Boston Rob has as much fun playing this game as this member of “Cops-R-Us”.
That is EXACTLY the vibe that I get from Tony this time too. He is the one that is keeping his tribe happy and their spirits up, it reminds me of Rob and the "happy chappy's"! Love it!


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03-01-20, 02:00 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Episode 4 - Setting the Trap: "
Thank you, FP, I always enjoy your input.

Regarding Alphas, I don' tthink they are limited to Sele; Dakal has a handful also in Yul, Tony, Tyson, Sandra and even Kim. That means a follower is much more likely to win.

Michelle is a follower who is showing signs of being a good navigator. As Jeremy's ally, she could certainly go far.

Yes, Adam, Rob and Parvati are in danger but I feel that there is only 1 TC left before they swap. That would probably mean three tribes of 5 and if Rob winds up on the tribe that has to start all over again he'd be very valuable to his tribe. With a little luck even the other two could find a soft landing spot.

By the way, I posted a video of Probst in Bashers which I think would interest you. He answers quick questions about the show and the series as a whole. Nothing spoilerish, just a look back.

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03-07-20, 04:53 PM (EST)
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11. "Episode 5 - Getting it Done:"
After 5 episodes, it’s time to start ranking these players. I’ll place them in four different categories.

The Edge of Extinction:

Natalie, Amber, Danni, Ethan and Tyson: They had a tough challenge to get a Fire Token; the kind of challenge that should be used for immunity. Ethan proved his resolve, Natalie proved her strength and both Danni and Amber proved their endurance but, at the end of the day, this doesn’t mean a thing if they don’t get back in the game so I’ll hold my analysis until one of them comes back. For now, the thing to remember is Amber’s comment: “The bond that we’ve created in that short time is strong. I felt it and it felt good.” The three women even accompanied Ethan on his last climb.

This is the problem with the Edge of Extinction: One of these players will return to the game and if they make it to the end, they’ll have made great bonds with their jurors which is totally unfair for the players that weren't voted out.

Note that when Danni talked about it being a marathon and people starting too fast out of the gate, the cameras showed us Ethan dropping three logs one after the other in quick succession. The image was clear; he collapsed because he didn’t play it smartly.

By the way, I would have tried to break the challenge: I would have gone up, taken one log and brought it back only part of the way down. I’d have gone back up and repeated the same process for the other 19 logs. When my pile of 20 logs was situated ¼ of the way down, I’d do it over again, bringing them to the half way point and so on until they were all at the bottom. I would have obeyed the rules that stated one log at a time but I would never have had to climb all the way. Would I have been disqualified? Hey! It was only ONE FIRE TOKEN!

The Tourists – It would be very surprising to find the winning edit in one of these players:

Nick: After failing with the puzzle, one he had done during his first season, Nick soon became Tyson’s target. For someone who had a gun aimed at him, we didn’t see Nick do much to save himself. Actually we saw him laying down in the shelter, resting while Tyson and Yul agreed he didn’t do much for the tribe in camp. Voting against Kim was a smart move but it does create a new conflict for Nick. It went directly against Yul and Sophie’s comment of keeping the facade of unity and that all 8 had to agree on one vote. It was strange seeing Tyson giving him the Fire Token but that’s Tyson. What will Nick do with it?

Wendell: After Tyson had made his Dakal-wide tour pointing the finger at Nick, Wendell told us that Tyson didn’t know what was going on and that he was a dead-man walking. Wendell reasoned that Tyson was well connected on the other side.

Kim: While she considered voting with Tyson she eventually voted against him. Getting Tyson out of the game reduced the heat on Kim but she’s still not presented as an impact player.

Denise: Aside from seeing her fail during the challenge, we didn’t get anything from Denise so it’s probable that her earlier presence was simply due to events that had to be shown and that she isn’t much of a factor down the road.

The Targets – These players should be voted out soon:

Boston Rob: When Rob couldn’t get Adam to flip the game again, he used lies to put the target on his young adversary. He told Jeremy and Michelle that Adam came to him and wanted to talk to him about the game. His performance during the challenge certainly created a good feeling in the tribe and we clearly saw that Ben was happy to be with Rob.

Parvati: She wanted to avenge Ethan’s elimination. Being a legend on the hot seat we’d expect to hear much more from her but it wasn’t to be.

Ben: Funny that Ben would call Adam a weasel when he was quick to snitch on Danni on the first day of the game. Hearing him fixating on Rob and Parvati being able to tie a noose around his neck and hang him at a time when neither has any power makes me wonder if he doesn’t find himself in a tribe with those two next week and they do send him to the gallows!

Tony: He agreed with Tyson’s plan of going after the unconnected players, even telling us that Nick was his first choice. He discussed the idea with Sarah and Sandra but, for some unseen reason, he sided against Tyson, something that can’t be good for Tony in the long run.

Sandra: Despite his pitch, Sandra needed Tyson to go. People laughed when the sit-out bench was renamed the “Sandra bench” but she’s proof that this game isn’t about winning challenges. When it comes time to vote, Sandra usually gets her way. Sure, she considered for a moment going with Tyson but she’s got an opening with Yul and she still has Tony as shield so why would she keep Tyson?! Like Sarah said, the whole plan rested on Sandra so did she make the right choice?

The Contenders – These players have been given careful portrayals which could turn into winning edits:

Sarah: She started by telling us she was having more fun than ever before (smelling Tyson’s breath is her idea of fun?!) She admitted to the bond she had with Tyson even if no one else trusted him. She also had to go against her preferred outcome and voted against Tyson. She spoke during Tribal Council but it was nothing noteworthy.

Sophie: Watching the people on the Edge of Extinction, Sophie compared it to a visit to a prison. She thought it was scary and a good reminder to stay away from that place. It was funny that Tyson didn’t remember her name when he mentioned the alliance on non-connected players. Many viewers must have the same problem! She is so under the radar that she could pull it off in the end. Despite this, I thought her comments during Tribal Council about keeping a facade were quite memorable.

Yul: His episode started enthusiastically; he was celebrating having survived the first quarter of the game. He told us that his tribe was on a roll. He wanted the illusion that they were all together to last even though he was in a close group with Nick, Wendell and Sophie. That attitude carried into Tribal Council where he wanted the group to vote together.

Jeremy: He compared Adam to one of his children who did something wrong and tried to make up for it. He did admit that they would keep him around if he didn’t go back to playing both sides. Of course that changed after his talk with Rob. Is Jeremy that gullible? It certainly could be his downfall but he is in a great place right now.

Michelle: We saw Michelle listening to Adam’s apology and next we saw her playing with Boston Rob, talking about their experiences in the game. She said her win was very controversial to which Rob replied: “If you win; you win. The end!” That comment made her laugh. Then, after making the shot, Rob said these words to Michelle: “Good Game!”

It was just a comment after a game of “hang-the-roll-of-tape-on-the-peg” but what if that’s an indication of how Rob will vote in the end? I think he will write Michelle’s name and think “Good Game”. Now will his vote be enough for her to win?

Adam: Giving him the first confessional of the evening really highlighted the care the editors have given to this somewhat less than legendary castaway. He knew that he made a big mistake in telling Rob about his alliance’s plan so he wanted to make it up to them. It won’t be easy because Rob is now out to get him and will lie about their interactions. We witnessed the full apology tour and the alliance listened to him. The next leg of his apology tour consisted of doing everyone’s chores. Paired with Parvati and Denise in the early part of the challenge, Adam had trouble retrieving the last key. Since both women were too short to get that key, Adam had to go up again and again until he finally made it. By that time Sele had fallen well behind but Adam still had the post-game interview. He talked about his mom saying that nothing stops him when he decides to do something. He ended by saying she was right.

I’m thinking nothing will stop him here either. Placing an interview from a member of the winning tribe here is incredibly rare. It’s been the “Kiss-of-Death” spot for many players while others told us what they thought would be happening at Tribal Council. Sometimes, especially when the eventual eliminated player was a Villain and the editors wanted to have fun with his demise, then that interview was a good guide to the events while most of the time it was complete misdirection. But now? interviewing a member of the winning tribe could either be a new trend for this season, it could also be that it fit with the theme originally set by Ethan about perseverance but it looked like a strong indicator that Adam is our player to watch.

It’s now been 4 weeks and Adam has always been one of the stars of the evening. We’d expect Rob, Sandra, Parvati and maybe even Ben, Probst’s all-time favorite winner (yes he had the gall to admit that the war hero was his favorite winner of all time which all but confirmed his season and the fire challenge were rigged for in Ben’s favor) and Adam should be a minor character in this group of “Legends” (as should Michelle by the way!). Why the preferential treatment if he isn’t our eventual winner? It’s noteworthy that during Adam’s attempts at the third key we heard Probst saying: “Everybody out here knows what it takes to win this game and it is moments like this when you cannot give up on yourself...” It certainly made it sound like the host wanted us to know that Adam has what it takes.

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03-14-20, 05:39 PM (EST)
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12. "Episode 6 - The "I'm-NOT-YOUR-BUDDY" System"
Except maybe for one player who could be considered more a target than a contender, I didn’t see anything in this episode to change my previous rankings:

The Edge of Extinction:

Natalie, Amber, Danni, Ethan and Tyson: We didn’t even hear from them so that can’t be good.

The Tourists – It would be very surprising to find the winning edit in one of these players:

Nick: Even if he was given the first confessional, talking about Tyson being the only one who wasn’t fitting in the group, I still see Nick as just being there. We had to see his interview because Tyson gave him his Fire Token, that’s all. Nick told us how the swap worked great for him; he won the lottery, he said. Oddly enough, winning the swap lottery doesn’t really work well editing-wise. The editors like to create doubt not show how easy it is. Yes, Earl told us about how grateful he was for the new shelter after the swap in the original Fiji but that was only after showing us that his tribe was much weaker than their rivals.

Wendell: He was asked to speak for the new Sele tribe but all he really said was that they looked strong. Anyone could see that.

Kim: While she did make a tentative connection to Jeremy and Denise, we heard more about it from them than from her which isn’t a good sign. The two old Sele may profit from her situation but she may pay for it. At least, we did hear from Kim after Tony’s proposal. She doesn’t trust the cop or Sandra and that puts her in a good spot. Another positive point was showing Kim catching a big eel at that everyone enjoyed a nice meal because of her.

Denise: She got the feeling that Kim wasn’t really with Tony and Sandra and she got the chance to tell us about it.

The Targets – These players should be voted out soon:

Parvati: She connected with Yul not really because they were both on Cook Islands but because she is Yul’s wife’s favorite player! Likewise, she found out that Nick used to have a crush on her. With Wendell, Parvati managed to finish the puzzle first, giving immunity to Sele.

Ben: As soon as they got to Yara, Ben was the one telling us about his predicament being on a tribe with the two people who blew up his game and lied. He exposed his two options: stick with the guys which was what the “godfather” wanted or he could go with the Dakal women. He’d have to trust his gut.

Tony: His story of Lions and Hyenas only reinforced the idea that Tony is in over his head in this game. (Where is Trish when he needs her?!) Maybe he should have tried solidifying his relationship with Kim BEFORE the swap! He continues to be one of the luckiest players ever because Dakal was dead last in the challenge and it was Sandra and Jeremy who saved his ass. Had Dakal gone to TC it’s fairly certain that Jeremy would have used his advantage to skip the Council, Sandra would have played her idol because it was expiring and that would have practically forced Denise and Kim into playing theirs leaving Tony as the automatic vote! He didn’t even know how close he came from execution.

Sandra: Even if she didn’t want to say too much about the new tribe, Sandra did put the two former Sele members on the hot seat. She doesn’t know it but her tribe is loaded with Idols and Advantages and, of those, she has the one with the earliest expiry date. On the other hand, safety for the next Tribal Council could open the door to the merger and that should diminish the target on her back.

The Contenders – These players have been given careful portrayals which could turn into winning edits:

Jeremy: The swap didn’t do him any favors and while he said he felt like he was “movin’ on up” I think he’ll be moving on down the list of Contenders. One could say that giving him an interview is a good sign but Survivor wants to portray its winners as enduring the hardships of the game, not living in luxury especially if they didn’t really deserve that luxury. At least he remained in game mode, trying to figure who was the outsider in this group. He did pick up the sentiment that Kim was the outsider even if she didn’t want to spell it out.

Sarah: After the scene with Yul that confirmed the strength of their bond, Sarah was quick to tell us that she didn’t want to swap. She told us that her advantage could save her and Sophie for one vote but she preferred not using it this early. Talking about the Ethan vote showed Sarah all the tension between the three guys. We also heard her saying that she didn’t like the negative energy that Rob brought to camp. She wasn’t going to let Rob act as a baby-sitter, confining her to a playpen.

Sophie: She preferred focusing on the shelter than the predicament brought by the swap. She soon realized that there were so many fractures between the three guys that she was afraid they’d realize they had to put them aside and get back together. She found the Yara idol and managed to keep it a secret even when Ben ordered everyone to empty their pockets. She shared half of that idol with Sarah. We also heard that she had given Kim’s half idol before the swap. Despite having a big lead, Sophie and Adam blew the puzzle and were responsible for sending Yara to Tribal Council. I wonder; did they throw the challenge to get Rob out? It’s certainly possible because that wasn’t a hard puzzle. She felt good about Adam and Ben but it was still making her nervous. Sarah gave her the half idol but Sophie was more interested in a glorious blindside than playing her idol this early.

She got her wish.

Yul: He shared a powerful story about his friend Jonathan Penner and his wife (When Yul said the only person he kept in close contact from Cook Islands was Jonathan, I wondered what happened to his friendship with Becky. I bet she regrets not taking the Immunity Idol when he offered it to her and used it to vote HIM out!) His dedication to his friend is admirable but I wonder if this means production will be pulling for him. We know where that could lead.

Michelle: We heard the story of the Michelle-Wendell romance mostly through her words and she said he broke her heart so it seems the editors are taking her side which is good for her the long-run. She vowed not to let him burn her in the game the way he burned her while they were dating and that she’d be the one to take him out of the game if it becomes necessary. That quote is something to remember because it mentioned the 2 million dollars.

Adam: Adam was the first to tell the audience how he felt about the swap. His second interview referred to Rob’s “buddy-system and we could see that he didn’t like staying in camp all day. He was bored by the inaction.

I think it is extremely noteworthy that Adam gave us the post-swap interview. Granted, it spoiled the fact that Yara was going to lose the Immunity Challenge but he was given the chance to clearly establish his situation in the game, the difficulty he will be facing. He even said it could be catastrophic for his game. Why focus the viewers’ attention on his situation if he isn’t THE Player to watch?


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03-21-20, 12:51 PM (EST)
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13. "Episode 7 - You Need a Backbone:"
While the editing of this episode was horrible, we lost 2 players that had clearly been shown as short term players. Sandra and Parvati had big targets painted on their back so even if it would have been better for the protagonists to aim at other players, we weren’t surprised to see these two go.

Do you want examples of poor editing? I’ll give you two: When Day 16 started with the Challenge then it became obvious that Yara would win. Up to that point, we had only visited Yara and the Edge of Extinction (where Tyson bought a jar of PB instead of an advantage in the return challenge) so if Dakal or Sele had won then we wouldn’t have visited one of these two camps for the whole episode. They both had to lose for us to see them. The second example is that Probst wasted more airtime on Wendell faking to throw him the skull than on talking about what he himself called the biggest reaction yet; the one that came when the two tribes saw that Boston Rob was out of the game. OK, we heard the “Whos” and “Whats” but, as viewers, we would have liked to hear Sandra and Parvati in particular, expressing their feelings.

YOU NEED A BACKBONE TO PLAY THIS GAME

Nick: After the challenge loss, we heard from Nick saying he was bummed that he couldn’t play with Parvati anymore. When Parvati told him about Wendell’s plan to get two Fire Tokens for a vote, Nick was very disappointed. He wanted to go to the end with Wendell but now he felt like Wendell wasn’t being honest. He said his game had been on cruise-control, just trying to get to the merge but now he felt he had to start playing the game. He thought it could be better to go after the hidden threat which was Wendell.

A game on cruise-control could explain why Nick had such a small role up to now so we might expect good things from now on. The problem is that he remained on cruise-control, siding with Wendell and Yul. Even if he was the one that said they needed to have a back-bone to play this game was saw that Nick doesn’t have the balls to impact the game. His confessional ended with a hope that he wouldn’t regret his choice so I feel that is exactly what will happen to Nick.

Wendell: He started acting weird at the challenge when first he faked throwing the skull to Probst and then losing a ball in the puzzle “while talking smack”. It got worse when he told Michelle not to put a vote on him because he wasn’t concerned about Fire Tokens, that what mattered were the numbers. Despite this, he quickly turned around and tried to sell his vote to Parvati to get TWO Fire Tokens! What a snake! At Tribal Council, not only did Wendell say he’d stab everyone in the back (and the front he stupidly added) but he confirmed Parvati’s words that he tried to get her Fire tokens in exchange for his vote.

That had to be the worse Tribal Council performance ever. Why didn’t Nick and Yul vote out this snake? Just like the other vote this one is inexplicable unless that was the way the season’s script was written.

Kim: When Sandra and Denise turned to Kim for her opinion, she told us she was starting to get a funny feeling about Tony. Kim and Sandra figured that Tony had a new spy-shack at the water well. She didn’t like playing with someone who was freaking out constantly.

It’s hard to judge Kim’s performance because, on one hand, she showed she had Tony all figured out but then she had completely misread Denise. This confusion wouldn’t matter much if Kim had been established as a big role character this season but, up to now, she had been mostly a Tourist so this episode didn’t improve her chances.

Ben: In the episode’s first interview, a laughing Ben told us about the last vote. He felt disrespected by Rob so he had to vote him out. He explained that he was out there building relationships to show that he could change his game. He felt close to Sarah and Sophie.

Note that we don’t hear Ben truly reflecting on the future. It suggests that he doesn’t have a real future in the game. However, this episode showed us that the game is rigged and Ben is Probst’s favorite winner of all time so this could all be to keep him in view and reveal his game later to satisfy our ring leader.

Sarah: We didn’t hear from Sarah in this episode which cannot be a good sign for her chances.

Denise: She was worried about the Council. She didn’t want to burn an idol that she wanted to keep for later. So she approached Sandra who she felt was very honest and direct. She was ready to write Jeremy’s name if it meant staying safe. She accepted Sandra’s deal: Two Fire Tokens for an idol and Denise could vote either of the two guys as long as she didn’t touch Sandra or Kim. Even if she already had an idol, Denise felt like she could have her first ever game-changing move. She was enjoying her new power.

Like all power, I think this corrupted Denise’s judgment. Granted, eliminating Sandra meant she didn’t have to give away her second Fire Token but Tony was the right move for her here. Sandra was willing to play with her and Denise even said she felt like Sandra was an honest person. Tony was gunning for Denise and we all know he isn’t honest so why did Denise choose Sandra? That is totally inexplicable unless that was how Probst’s script read.

Tony: Tony’s paranoia was quick to resurface after the challenge loss. He felt like Sandra and Kim were about to flip on him or that Jeremy and Denise had an idol. So he built a new spy-shack. It proved to be useless because everyone expected that he’d be hiding near the water well.

To all who said Tony was a great player this episode proved once again that he’s an imbecile. The second luckiest winner ever should have been voted out after such an idiotic game play but Denise went with the script instead.

Jeremy: Knowing that the numbers were against him, Jeremy was happy to have safety if he chose to use it. He couldn’t understand Tony’s game play.

A duck with its head underwater cannot survive despite all the leg action it can muster. Up to this point, Jeremy hasn’t shown as a potential winner.

Yul: Completely absent from the strategy discussion at camp, Yul looked completely overwhelmed during Tribal Council. The sympathy everyone has for his cause is his only chance. Is that how the script ends? It’s possible.

Sophie: She was specifically called a good person by Ben so that’s a strong positive.

At one point, the editors gave us a view of the tribe from Sophie’s Point of View:

Could this season be a reprise of So Pathetic's main theme which turned out to be “Sophie’s Choice”?

While she didn’t get much in this episode, she did get a “she knows what she’s talking about” when she guessed right about the reward. Also, she was the clear star of the challenge, winning it for Yara. It’s enough to maintain a possible winning edit.

Michelle: While she knew Nick was Parvati’s only option, Michelle understood that it wouldn’t work. That sucked, she said. Since she felt Parvati was about to leave, she tried to find an angle that would benefit her own game. She talked to Wendell about voting with Parvati just to get her Fire Token but Wendell didn’t like that idea. Michelle got pissed when she realized that Wendell didn’t trust her. He had burned her when they were dating and he was doing it again. Why would she continue to give when all he’s always taking, she wondered?

It would be a cruel editing decision to have Michelle hearing her talk about all the distress Wendell caused her if he was going to outlast her so I think Michelle will be the one going further in the game. Since it seems that Wendell is in for a while then that augurs well for Michelle. Will she have the résumé to convince the jury that she deserves the Title of Sole Survivor? She’d get Rob’s vote and maybe Parvati but would others follow? She’ll need to do something to stand out.

Adam: The episode began with Ben and Adam rejoicing over Boston Rob’s demise. Adam wanted to have a party (you could still have those back then... Ah! the good old days before Coco invaded the planet.) His first confessional let us know that the “wicked witch” was dead. However, Adam was nervous about being on a tribe with people who may have stronger bonds between themselves than with him. He noted that Ben was barely talking to him. He felt cornered on this tribe. Notably, for the second time, Adam had the post-challenge interview despite being on the winning tribe. “The most amazing thing, for me, is it’s like winning two immunity challenges back-to-back. We’re going from 14 people in the game to 12. It’s a double-elimination. It doesn’t get better than that.” And while Sophie was the star of the challenge, Adam did place one of the three balls on the table maze.

Because the editors keep giving him interviews that could be given to anyone else, Adam has to remain our Top Contender. His visibility to the other players is very much in doubt because he hasn’t had to do much up to now. He did survive Boston Rob’s rule, getting him out even if Rob had been gunning for him so that’s a strong “Outlasting” point but will it be enough?

Just like Tyson and Rob right before them, Sandra and Parvati had each received production’s help to win the game so I guess it was time for payback. Tony, Jeremy, Yul and Ben also fall in the category of “Fixed Outcomes” so they’re in danger. However, Yul has a new, powerful cause so maybe he’s still in production’s good graces.


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14. "RE: Episode 7 - You Need a Backbone:"
Always LOVE to hear your take. I agree with most of it. I like to listen to RHAP and everyone who comes on notes what a great season it is, but frankly, I am not seeing it that way and I don't know how many folks are bigger fans than I am. I do feel it's almost scripted and so manipulated, more so than other seasons. And, we are not getting to see the machinations within the groupings, which stinks! The tribe swap for me was a direct fix. So bummed about it. Clearly, the big early players were all doomed.

But, moving on....

Nick: What a disappointment. Clearly, he's not winner material this season. On nuSele, Wendell takes a big step back. Agree with all your assessments, however, I do think this is the beginning of the end arc for him. He's a snake and the others are onto him. I think his days are numbered.

Yul. Was shown as the orchestrator of the "non-connected" alliance, we saw him gather his troops. We saw him make arrogant statements, "we should control the game", blah, blah. We saw him target Tyson but telling Sandra that Tyson was throwing her name out. But then, we got the ALS confessional. To me, this screams journey player. Not playing to win the game but to shine light on the ALS cause. Since then, he's been shocked at TC, and seemingly out of the loop. This week he had NO confessionals. I would say that Yul could be destined to EoE sooner rather than later.

As you noted, Michelle, the one who should be next to go on nuSele, will most likely outlast the three stooges; Wendell, Yul, and Nick. Fwiw.

At Yara. Adam is the voice of whatever tribe he seems to be on. I am having a hard time not seeing him as a narrator, and we know historically when narrators go.....at merge. I would LOVE for you to be right, because I love his vantage point, Adam is a serious player, would love to see the story of Winners at War be his story, but I am dubious.

Sophie, Sarah, Ben are all in good shape with this episode. I love Ben, he's so social and fun to be around and I do think he's playing a great game trying to connect with people, and we see him succeeding at it. Which speaks volumes in a social game. And, Ben is disconnected and isn't that one of the themes of this season? Working for Denise so far.

Sophie is set up very nicely. Sarah and Tony, imo, still have legs, as I think we will see the Cops R Us alliance succeed, at least further than this.

Tony did have some doubt cast on him this episode with reverting back to his spy shack ways. But isn't that a good thing in the editing world? I am not ready to discount him.

Jeremy I could also see as a potential winner. He likes to have a bigger threat than him around. He's really playing in a laid back style and I like it.

Kim, despite having an idol is not going to win this game.


Just a few thoughts....

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03-23-20, 01:52 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Episode 7 - You Need a Backbone:"
It's so nice to hear from you FP. I was starting to think this place had been put in Quarantine. I swear, I wash my hands all the time and I try my best not to transmit any computer virus!

For some reason, I don't really like Ben. It has nothing to do with him personally but because of the way he won, He absolutely didn't deserve to win because his game was done until that surprise Fire challenge. To me, that's production interference at its worse.

By the way, Ben was a journey player out to prove that ex-military could do well despite post-traumatic syndrome. And didn't Veruca call Aras a journey player way back in Panama? So a journey player like Yul can win especially if Probst likes their journey!! Narrators also can win; Cochran for example.

On POS, I saw a video interview conducted by Dalton Ross which featured Probst and 7 players: Parvati, Rob, Amber, Ethan, Sandra, Wendell and Sophie. I wonder if we can read anything into this. Five of them have already been voted out so would Wendell and Sophie be next? It seems unlikely so maybe they were chosen to represent the end game players. Or maybe not!

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03-24-20, 01:57 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Episode 7 - You Need a Backbone:"
Hi Michel-
Just wanted to let you know I faithfully read and enjoy all your posts (and yours too, FP), though I don't comment too often. Please keep up your excellent commentary!

One thing I have been wary about is the way Adam has been edited. It seems like each episode he is shown to be a "Top Contender", as you have noted, and I am rooting for him. But somehow it reminds me of the way Christian was edited in DvG. When he was voted out, it felt like the rug was pulled out from under all of us. I can't help thinking Adam might be in for a similar fate. Thinking a little bit deeper, the winner that season was Nick, who was an early ally of Christian's but was in danger of being voted out in the very first episode. Wouldn't it be funny if Adam's original alliance member, Denise, who was in danger in the very first episode, turns out to be this season's winner?

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17. "RE: Episode 7 - You Need a Backbone:"
Michel and Chez: Always thrilled to read anyone's opinion in here! It's always remarkable that we all can see the same show yet can end up with a multiple of takes on it.

To your point, Chez, both Adam and Denise were in danger in the very first episode...something to think about!

And, michel. Excellent points re. Narrators and journey players, lol!


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18. "RE: Episode 7 - You Need a Backbone:"
"On POS, I saw a video interview conducted by Dalton Ross which featured Probst and 7 players: Parvati, Rob, Amber, Ethan, Sandra, Wendell and Sophie. "

That interview was part of early screening of the Premiere Episode of Season 40 Winners At War on Monday Feb 10, 2020 put on by CBS and Entertainment Weekly. CBS and EW both promoted a drawing for tickets for fans with a panel discussion and Q&A after the showing.

I was pretty surprised that those 7 Winners were in Los Angeles for the event. Not sure if CBS/EW paid for them to be there but most likely they did.

Parvati and Sandra stayed in town and showed up on Wed Feb 12 at the Rob Has A Podcast Know-It-All Live Survivor Season 40 Premiere and RHAP 10th Anniversary celebration event. Sandra was even on the Podcast!


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19. "Episode 8 - Dangerous"
The Story

Last week, we wrote: “Just like Tyson and Rob right before them, Sandra and Parvati had each received production’s help to win the game so... it was time for payback. Tony, Jeremy, Yul and Ben also fall in the category of “Fixed Outcomes” so they’re in danger.” What wasn’t mentioned was Probst’s constant refrain that the game has evolved. While a serious analysis would show that the only “evolution” has been the addition of gimmicks and twists, Probst is using this season to prove his point. I’d say it’s easy to prove your point when you’ve assured that you are in control of the key variables. Whether or not these votes were scripted, the key variable in Survivor has always been the numbers. Hatch proved in season 1 that 4 united players can be deadly in a group where the 6 others think everyone is playing as individuals. Here, we had 8 players who played in the first 20 seasons going against 12 players from the second half of the series. Add the fact that many of the older players had become “Legends” of the game then we knew the old-timers didn’t stand a chance.

I also noted that, for one of the rare occasions, Probst didn’t use the formulaic “Yara getting their first look at the new Dakal and Sele Tribes; Parvati and Sandra voted out.” In fact, Yara wasn’t even the first tribe to enter the arena; they walked in between Sele and Dakal. That's because there was a Reward Challege that wasn't shown; Yara had already seen the new tribes. So, once more Probst wasted time on Sophie pretending to hang on to the idol when TWO HUGE characters had been voted. The editors could have spliced in comments from the reward challenge into the conversation before the Immunity challenge but they didn't bother. I think that's a clear indication that Parvati doesn't return to the game.

Another interesting thing about the edit is that we get a count on how many Fire Tokens some players have but nothing on others. Is that a clue that some players will use their tokens successfully? We’d need a statement of their current account if they are going to use them while we wouldn’t need the information for the players who simply waste them.

The Characters

A reshuffle of the contenders is in order after this episode. Let’s place them in “Power Rankings” going from the player I feel has the less chance of winning to the one with the most, ignoring for the time being those on the Edge of Extinction (When we find out who comes back then and only then will we look back at his or her portrayal on EoE to see where they rank. I will say though that, for a portly fellow, Rob did very well, finding 3 Fire Tokens to the one found by the “amazing” Tyson):

Wendell:
While Michelle has been spending most of her interviews telling us that Wendell is a bad person, Yul spent most of this episode telling the viewers that Wendell is a bad player so it stands to reason that is how the editors want us to view him. What we heard from him had no redeeming quality as he threatened to bite Michelle for trying to put him on a leash when all she did was say he created chaos at Tribal Council. Even though Michelle said he did well on the puzzle, the challenge loss was clearly put on his shoulders by Nick and Yul. At least he read Yul correctly, knowing the winner of Cook Island would be voting against him.

Nick: Quiet in the first part of the episode, we only heard from Nick after the challenge loss and he wasn’t pleased with Wendell who was showboating during the challenge instead of focusing on his job, the puzzle. It was Yul’s scheme to get Wendell’s Fire Tokens that scared Nick and decided his vote.

Tony: Once again, Tony was used for comic relief instead of being presented like a possible winner. The main Dakal scene of the episode showed Tony running “like an old man” with Jeremy, Kim and Denise laughing at him. Despite that, Tony felt comfortable with Kim and Jeremy. He also liked to know that Denise had become a big target.

Jeremy: Despite what Tony thought of Denise, Jeremy still considered him the biggest threat.

Ben: After interrogating Adam, Ben decided it was time to go look for the idol.

Kim: She was already thinking about the merge so she was trying to set up a plan to avoid being picked off. While she liked Tony, she felt more comfortable with Denise and, especially, Jeremy. It sounded strange to hear that she trusted Denise after the big move at the last Tribal Council. (maybe Denise had warned Kim about eliminating Sandra.) That would explain why Kim didn’t feel the need to play her own idol even though she had voted for a person that played an idol to cancel that vote. Just like in One World, Kim started talking about her options.

We know how good Kim is at choosing the right option.

Sarah: She knew where the idol was but she was pissed that Adam thought she had one because that rumor could put a target on her back. She told Adam he could look in her bag.

Denise: All the future jurors got to hear how Denise screwed the Queen. Sandra’s last words to the tribe were “Get Denise for me” but can they? Denise is now part of a solid three with Jeremy and Kim; that could lead them far.

Adam: Right off the bat, Adam told us he was convinced that either Ben or Sarah had the idol. He thought they saw him as an idiot who didn’t realize they were just pretending to search. Adam found it ironic that he had to do damage control when they were the ones lying to him. His interview ended with him saying: “There’s a chance that I am wrong and between Ben and Sarah, they don’t have an idol. If I’m wrong, I’ll feel like a real idiot but there are few times in Survivor that I have felt as confident as I do about this”.

Well Adam, you are a real idiot! The whole Yara scene was mostly a joke played on Adam who even talked to Sophie about his belief that: “One of them has an idol”. The editors really had fun with Adam’s mistake. For that reason, I have to remove him from the top spot. A winner wouldn’t be mocked this way.

Michelle: (3 Tokens) I think it’s important to note that the episode started with Parvati telling the others on the Edge of Extinction that, in her former tribe, Michelle was now alone against the 3 guy. That can only enhance the viewers’ respect for the predicament facing the Kâoh Rông winner. In Michelle’s first interview, we learned that she gave one of Parvati’s Fire token as a gesture of good-will but that she doesn’t plan to move forward in the game with him.

After the challenge loss, we saw a Praying Mantis attacking a smaller insect and devouring it. Yul was the prey that was about to be killed and we know that it is the female Mantis that sometimes practices cannibalism so the editors were giving credit to Michelle for the big kill. While we guessed some winners because of Animal Imagery (the yellow frog for Aras, the Tarsier for Cochran as examples) we must remember that Fairplay in Pearl Islands was symbolized by a snake who slowly ate a huge chameleon all through the episode where Rupert was eliminated (the chameleon, with ever changing colors, was even represented by Rupert’s multi-colored tie-dye shirt!!) so it isn’t necessarily a clue that Michelle is going to win but it is something.

The way Michelle went around the group during the discussion about the vote was admirable. While many outsiders, when trying to join a group, make the fatal mistake of naming their target, Michelle listened to everyone’s opinion: Her conversation with Nick was perfect modus operandi for the game of Survivor.

“I’m open to anything” she told him so he forged ahead with his plan to go after Yul. Only then did she choose which side to pick, solidifying the group around her by clearly explaining why it had to be Yul. She had the last interview of the evening and this time she wasn’t saying that she wanted to prove she deserved her first win but that is was proving she deserves to win it this time just like she deserved it the last time.

Note that, during the challenge, Michelle fell down on the balance beam even before the tribe got their disc. That caused them more than a second delay but, even though they lost by less than a second, the blame was put all on Wendell who, supposedly, lost time by trash talking with Jeff. The main defect of Michelle’s story is that it’s all focused on Wendell. She even said that she didn’t want to move forward with him but that is exactly what she chose to do. Still, up to now, she is proving to be a strong player so we must keep her in contention.

Sophie: Her first interview told us that there was tension brewing under the surface of the Yara Tribe. That tension was caused by the boys wanting to find the Hidden Immunity Idol. Sophie found that funny because she had it. Once again, she was the star of the immunity challenge.

Sophie is playing a much more focused game than in the South Pacific. There, people would come to Albert and her to talk about strategy and, while Albert would listen to their pleas, Sophie’s body language clearly showed she didn’t give a damn about them. She’d keep her eyes closed, preferring to tan instead of taking part of the conversation or, worse, she be seen taking care of her nails while turning her head away from the person talking to them. No wonder people saw her as an arrogant b*tch. Speaking of South Pacific, one of the things I didn’t understand then and that I understand even less after last week’s episode was the reaction to Albert’s big move in getting Hantz’s immunity necklace and then watching him get voted out. People simply hated him for doing that yet the applause was unanimous for Denise. I do not understand the fans sometimes.

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03-31-20, 06:18 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Episode 8 - Dangerous"
I cannot wait to read your take on things each and every week, michel! Thank you as always!

As I have noted, this season has been more difficult to draw conclusions and hypothesis' because we are not given as much because of the filming at EoE. I don't like it, frankly. They should have considered a 2 hour air time. We see how they cut so much, like that reward challenge. We need to see all of this!

So, here is where I stand on the characters at this point in the game, as always alot of this is redundant because we see alot of the same things, but that confirms that perhaps we are getting the same gist.

I think the most at risk in the next episode are Wendell and Adam. As I noted in the confessional thread, Wendell's two closest allies now, Nick and Michelle, have both voiced that they want him out. Not good. It will be interesting what Sophie thinks at the merge as well. As a buff physically fit male, at merge, he's in trouble.

Adam on the other hand, played both sides in his Sele tribe, and they all knew it, dad-gumit! He is on the perimeter of his Yara tribe, he's insecure with Ben and jealous that Ben has forged the relationship with the girls. NTOS has him in a horrible confessional whining about Ben. Seems that Adam is not playing well with others, and he feels left out of the loop.....?

Nick: I also think Nick cannot win the game. His early confessional was about the value of the fire tokens. He was too quiet. We didn't get enough of his strategy right of the bat. Just that he was a new school player and that he could figure it out. Well, new school players did get out the old schoolers, but now what? We see him forge an apparently close bond with Michelle. He has hope to last a bit, but he won't win, imo.

Kim: I agree, I loved Kim in her season and I am well aware that many consider her the greatest winner. But, that was then, and this is now. Kim was immediately in trouble on her tribe, and she only had once confessional in the beginning. I think her early confessionals were shock....never played from the bottom before. We also saw her struggle about missing her family. Easy to see that she is in a different place in time. But, she played low and is now perking up and hoping to direct her own game from here. She has an idol. She's NOT in immediate danger, but I do not see her as a contender.

Long shot to win:

Denise: Denise had a very enlightening confessional in the last episode....with all the bigger threats in the game, do not underestimate her "under the radar" or "riding coattails" strategy. She made a very big move, but that made her become more of a threat. We heard Sandra tell the EoE people to "get Denise". Someone or multiple people will come back to the game and they talk. I do think Denise will get close to end game, but will they give her the win or let the therapist and kind person get in front of the jury? Will the jury give the win to an under the radar, coattail rider the win?

Ben: I think Ben has been doing great and I have considered him a contender. He told us from the start about his strategy in this game in contrast to his last win. He's fit, he's extremely social, he's smart, and he's disarming. He is in a great position going into the merge. But, if he starts to come on strong in challenges, or finding idols, he'll become a big target sooner rather than later. His confessionals are very consistent. But, I just don't know if his editing is one of the winner. But it could be? I am still considering him a contender.

Contenders:

Tony: While some balk at his antics, I still see Tony as a contender. We have been privy to his every move, thought. We saw him state how he was going to play the game differently this time by controlling his urges to run around manically to find idols. We saw him work on his social game and become everyones entertainment. We also saw him rekindle an important alliance, the Cops R Us with Sarah, another solid winner. We hear that he wants to keep the bigger targets around; Tyson, Sandra, Jeremy, Denise... So far he has been disarming, and he has controlled his urges with the exception of the spy shack when they were going to TC. Is this a hint of things to come, or will Tony learn and recommit to playing the game he set out to? At this point, I think he's still a contender despite that alot of others are calling him their shield.

Sarah: She's the other half of the Cops R Us Alliance. She is very social and well liked, a good challenge contributor. She was in good shape on old Dakal, and she's in great shape with Sophie at Yara. She's got a new friend, Ben. I love that she's a contender. She has an advantage, and she's got some fire tokens. She could be a winner.

Jeremy: He's played it cool, we saw him get blindsided with the loss of his closest ally, Natalie, then hang in there. He's tight with Michelle, Ben, Denise, Adam and now with Kim and Tony. He has the likability, the social graces, the fun factor, and he's got some bigger shields around him. Could be a strong competitor at the end. Will they let the beloved fireman get to the end....again?

Sophie: She started out as somewhat for a villain to me, so I don't know if she can win or not. I'm leaning not. She doesn't seem to have much personality, but for some reason or another, Adam seemed to trust her over Sarah and Ben? She's got an HII> She had a strong ally in Yul, he's gone. She's got a connection to Kim, and to Sarah, and Ben is a fan. She could be a contender.

Michelle: We sure are getting her motivation to win and play ....but she's playing very eloquently. She's social, and agreeable and non-threatening. People seem to trust her. She broke up a tight three of Yul, Wendell, Nick, and never had the target on her back. She's doing something right. She could be a winner!



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03-31-20, 08:15 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Episode 8 - Dangerous"
Nice analysis, FP. We are on th same wavelength except that I'd reverse Tony and Adam even if I'm not so hot on Adam anymore.
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22. "Episode 9 - The Lions and the Hyenas"
LAST EDITED ON 04-04-20 AT 01:40 PM (EST)

The theme of this episode could well be have one of Lafontaine’s fables: The Lions and the Hyenas. The words came from Tony and if we go by his story then we have four Lions and the rest are Hyenas. However, he only named four of them: Wendell, Nick, Adam and Michelle. Where does that leave Kim, Sarah, Denise and Sophie?

On a side note: How fair is it to have 7 men battling out for one necklace while only 5 women are in competition for the other. We had a challenge in which women did just as well as men in the past so why not put them all against each other?

Entering the merger, we had two tribes of 4 and a tribe of 3 plus Tyson so it was strange to see the two tribes of four ganging up on the tribe of three. Like many others, I don’t like the three tribe formulae because losing becomes a good strategy. The “Intentional Matsing”, as it was called, has often been discussed as a viable strategy because being from a tribe of two (or three) players entering the merger against two tribes of 5 players can be extremely advantageous. The two big tribes will try to recruit the two lone members, not seeing them as threats but as useful votes against the other large group. That’s how Denise won her season. That has been the usual pattern used to decimate the group that had won most of the Tribal Immunity Challenges because it still gives one group a clear majority at seven. Of course, familiarity, inherent in seasons with returning players, was a big factor in the tribal dynamics this time.

I’ll also post an image of the Menu that showed the cost, in Fire Tokens, of different items. Thankfully, no Immunity Idols are on the menu:


And, before we get into our look at the characters, does anyone know what the name Koru means and who had the idea? The Merged Tribe’s name used to be a big deal but now we only learned about it when a graphic appeared at the start of a rainy day 21. But that’s Survivor Probst Style for you!

The Lions: In a season with so many Leaders (Lions) a Follower is more likely to win. It is noteworthy that all four Lions had a big presence before the challenge but weren’t roaring as loudly after it. In fact, they all became sheeps!

Tyson: The talk with Probst before the challenge showed emotions we had never really seen from Tyson except at the moment when his girlfriend was voted out of Blood versus Water. He acknowledged that his jokes were often a facade to hide his feelings and that he was thinking of his family back home. It humanized him in a nice way. He led throughout most of the challenge. After winning it, he told us it was a boost of confidence. At the feast, he realized he was the only old timer there, having played three times before most of them “put their Survivor diapers on”. He wondered if the game had changed so much that he couldn’t adapt. His initial reaction was that he didn’t think so. His silent advice to them was to vote him out immediately because if he got his footing in the game, he’d build a home there.

A bad sign for Tyson was that he was chosen to be on screen when Adam mentioned some people couldn’t handle the rainy weather. He survived this vote but does he really have an alliance?

Ben: He had the confessional right after the announcement that the tribes had merged. For him, this was the start of the real game. “This is when the battle starts and it’s time to find out who is the champion of champions.” Talking to Tyson at the water well, Ben counted all the big names that were gone: Tyson, Rob, Parvati and Sandra. He didn’t want that trend to continue. For him, the battle was going to be “Big Threats versus little threats”. For him, Nick had a good social game but he kept popping in everyone’s conversations.

It’s weird that the Wendell vote looked like a defeat for Ben when the ex-marine was gunning for the carpenter from the start. The problem is that he had clearly settled first on Nick then on Adam before being brought back to the Wendell vote. Going with the flow was a theme of this episode but, for Ben, it looked more like being tossed to one side and the other by waves and undercurrents.

Tony: He had the interview that came just as the tribe arrived to their new residence. It was only to tell us that the new Menu was up but that the prices had risen so he couldn’t buy a thing with his lone token. (Tony seems to miss the fact that a group of players could pool their money together and buy an item for their own use. Let say a group of five takes over at Final 9 and they buy a tarp or a bag of rice and keep it to themselves! It would be a nice way to solidify an alliance.) At least the feast was free and Tony loved that! We then saw Ben giving Tony a big hug (How significant will that be? It was the first hug shown.) After hearing Ben’s opinion of the game, Tony felt it was music to his ears. For him, people like Nick, Wendell, Adam and Michelle, all good players, he conceded, but with low profiles, the sleepers Ben called them, these players had to be taken out first. After the challenge, Tony had a talk with Ben and Jeremy. They wanted to take out Nick. Tony called him a scavenger.

Tony was only used to narrate the new situation. Tony the Lion (shouldn’t he have chosen the Tiger instead!) was turned into a scavenger himself.

Jeremy: After connecting with Wendell, Jeremy showed a devious side we had rarely seen: Nick was Wendell’s right hand man but Jeremy wanted to be that guy so he wanted Nick gone. After winning Immunity, Jeremy noted that the necklace meant power and he’d be going after Nick. His plan was to be the boss: ‘”I want to drive this thing but I don’t want people to know I’m driving this thing.” However, when he heard that the vote had shifted against Wendell, Jeremy drove hard to get Adam voted out. He went to everyone, even Denise, Adam’s ally, trying to organize the vote. He had very little success.

Jeremy may have held the wheel for a while but he was neatly ejected from the driver’s seat by Sophie.

The Hyenas – It seems the Genus is divided into three different Species: Hyaenidae Delator, Hyaenidae Tacitus and Hyaenidae Habilis. The Delator species, the laughing-at-others Hyena if you will, is on the edge of Extinction. Wendell represents its last living member. Hyaenidae Habilis has two representatives with very strong, potentially winning edits.

Nick (Hyaenidae Tacitus): This silent Hyena was forced into action when he learned his name was being mentioned as a candidate for extinction. That’s when we saw a funny montage of Nick butting into every conversation. So Nick threw Adam’s name out as a target.

Nick never had a big role this season so we can expect to see him dispatched soon to join his friend Wendell.

Michelle (Hyaenidae Habilis): Besides comforting Sophie before the challenge and then needing comfort herself after falling off first, Michelle didn’t play a role in this episode. She was going to outlast Wendell but she received absolutely no credit for doing so. At the end of Tribal Council, the cameras clearly showed us that she had been left out of the loop.

A quiet showing in the merger episode is rarely a good sign for a player’s future but Michelle is certainly in a better situation with Wendell out of the game.

Adam (Hyaenidae Habilis): Adam’s first interview came during the storm and it was to tell us that this was nothing for him because he had previously been through a cyclone. The others were miserable but he was having fun. I instantly flashed back to prior winners who had said they weren’t affected by difficult conditions while their competition was suffering; Earl in Fiji and Natalie in Samoa come to mind. Once more, Adam had the last interview before Tribal Council: He was nervous because he didn’t know the plan: Was it Nick? was it Wendell? could it be him? He them mocked Ben who said he didn’t know what it was either. He couldn’t understand why Ben was upset. Adam was scared. He needed to stay in the game. His voting confessional was very telling. Holding up the parchment with Wendell written on it, he said: “It’s either you or me tonight. I know that but do you?”

Adam did survive a very touchy situation. When the story casts doubt on a player’s chances that’s often a great omen for their future so we have to keep Adam as one of our Top Contenders.

The Unnamed Menace – If the Lions and the Hyenas go at war then the winner could come from this group:

Kim: The rain put Kim in Survival mode. We saw her talking to Jeremy but that was about it for her participation in the discussion about the vote.

Unfortunately, Kim remains an extra in the season’s story. She cannot really be considered a contender.

Sarah: She gave us an interview just as the group sat down to the feast. She told us it felt good being one of the 12 greats. She then asked what happened with Sandra so Denise explained the whole deal.

We see that Sarah has a role to play in the outcome of the season but she's still left too much in the background for us to expect she'll suddenly become the focus of this story.

Denise: She received the Title of “Queen Slayer” from the group after she told them about her exploit. However, Denise’s exploits put an immediate target on her back. She was the talk of the group before she won immunity. When Jeremy brought up Adam’s name, Denise had very little reaction; she’d do it, she told Jeremy. To us, she said her alliance with Adam was a day 1 alliance but maybe not a Day 39 alliance.

Despite all that talk of being ready to cut Adam, in the end Denise chose to vote against Wendell. Presented like this, the editors didn’t give her any credit for Wendell’s elimination. However, we must remember that Wendell said she was playing a winner’s game. That is a lot like what Russell Swann said in the Philippines. People missed their chance to vote her out back then, will the same happen here? It is a bit early though to need to win your way to the end. The target on her back won’t diminish especially since we know Sophie has her in her sights. The necklace will not always be as easy to win.

Sophie: Her interview was the one chosen to explain how the group felt about Denise’s “war story” on how she beat the Queen. Sophie didn’t seem impressed; for her, Denise had just shown her cards too early. On a less positive note, Sophie arrived at the immunity challenge crying because she was cold. Her tears at the Final Five Tribal Council in South Pacific earned her the title of Sole Survivor but these tears didn’t have the same impact. At least, Sophie wasn’t the first to fall from the pole. When she heard the vote was between Nick and Wendell, “Sophie’s Choice” was clear: It had to be Wendell because: “Wendell and Jeremy are constantly bro’ing out.” She then went on with a very astute read of the situation: “A bunch of the “big guys”, Jeremy, Tyson, Tony and Ben all got together and said: “Maybe Wendell, maybe Nick but a lot of power in this tribe is coming from Jeremy and I think Wendell is Jeremy’s man.” Before Tribal Council, she reassured Adam, telling him that he’d get votes from Nick and Wendell but she was voting against Wendell.

Sophie’s read of the situation was simply remarkable. To me, that was a clear indication that this is her season. Also, note that while Sophie was giving us this great insight into the game, we saw an image of Jeremy looking down at everyone in camp but that image was partly obscured by the smoke from the camp fire.

That is the classical “Fogs of War” image and, when it comes during a crucial conversation, it is designed to show us which person is out of touch with the current events. Sophie had a choice to make: Let the Lions choose which Hyena should go home or make the decision for them. She chose to make the decision so now she’s in the driver’s seat, having stolen it from Jeremy, but no one really sees her as the driver. That is a magnificent position to hold.

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04-04-20, 08:26 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: Episode 9 - The Lions and the Hyenas"
Stellar as always, michel! LOVE the foggy pic of Jeremy. To me this was the rise and fall of Jeremy at the hands of Sophie. Will these two come to blows later? Will be great to watch!

Also, so much is brewing at merge. Especially among the hyenas. Nick vs Sarah. Adam plays both sides again. This is getting good!


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04-04-20, 04:15 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Episode 9 - The Lions and the Hyenas"
"This is getting good!" 

Well, I'm not as enthusiastic as you are so I'd say: This is getting better. Then again, the first half was so bad that it had to improve.

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04-04-20, 04:52 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Episode 9 - The Lions and the Hyenas"
LAST EDITED ON 04-04-20 AT 04:53 PM (EST)

Well, I'm not as enthusiastic as you are so I'd say: This is getting better. Then again, the first half was so bad that it had to improve.


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04-10-20, 05:16 PM (EST)
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26. "Episode 10 - Playing on the Edge:"
LAST EDITED ON 04-10-20 AT 05:18 PM (EST)

Up to now, the story had been narrated in large parts by Adam, not only from a daily life standpoint but also from a strategic one. Therefore, I consider it bad editing that the story came from someone that was to remain an outsider, someone who left the story so early.

If it matters, we know the reward challenge was done by having 2 captains drafting their respective teams. The captains were Jeremy and Kim so can we guess how the draft went? We know the teams:


Having an apparently loaded team, it stands to reason that Jeremy had the first pick so he probably selected two strong guys first. I’d say Tyson and Tony were his first two selections. That would probably mean that Ben was Kim’s first selection. Since there was a puzzle at the end, Kim’s second round pick was probably Sophie letting Jeremy select Nick in the 3rd round to which Kim would have answered with Sophie. In the last round, Jeremy saw the chance to have an all-male team so he seized it leaving Kim with the task of choosing who would participate and who would miss the reward. Michelle was chosen. Surprisingly, Kim’s team led all the way in the “heavy lifting” portion of the challenge and then won it on the puzzle.

The chaotic scene just before Tribal Council was a good example of how things often go even if we aren’t always shown that level of chaos. How much of the images came from this cycle and how much were spliced in from other time frames? We can’t tell but it was nice to see. The sound of crickets that answered Adam’s final question before the vote was quite hilarious as was his attempt to play the “Fleur-de-Lys” symbol on Jeff’s podium. Unfortunately Adam, Survivor’s creative team isn’t that smart!
With Nick’s elimination, we see the fall of another player whose win had been largely helped by production. There are still a few of those winners left, namely Ben, Tony, Tyson and arguably Jeremy, so their fall is probably imminent.

The Characters:

Tyson: His involvement in the story came when Nick spurred him on by saying Sophie was gunning for him. He tried to get Jeremy and Adam on board to eliminate Sophie but Jeremy was hesitant while Adam had his own preference; going after Sarah. Tyson agreed. When Kim told him she didn’t want to eliminate Sarah, Tyson turned the tables and said that they had to go after Adam, the one who had convinced a group to go after Sarah. Tyson’s plan got immediate traction. He told us that he didn’t like confusion in the game of Survivor but creating confusing can make people forget to target the person at the source of it all.

We see that Tyson has managed to avoid the boomerang vote and he’s part of the group’s discussion but how long can that last? There is a lot less confusion when the group gets down in numbers.

Ben: His fortune cookie read: “You will accomplish things that many cannot.” I guess a challenge win or two is in Ben’s future! He didn’t like hearing that Adam was linking him strongly to Sarah. He knew that it was going to be hard to settle on one plan and that it might change all the way to Tribal Council. The editors proved him right because chaos started right after his interview when he confronted Adam.

The jury sees a very paranoid Ben and they don’t seem to respect his game very much so I doubt he’d get their votes even if he made it to the end.

Tony: Once more, Tony acted like a Survivor “know-it-all” with Nick and Michelle, telling them that they couldn’t act like that. His next tutorial came after the reward challenge when he told Sarah that she shouldn’t have given up her reward. In interview, he told us that a decision like the one made by Sarah can be very costly. A Survivor player needed to be barbaric, not emotional and humane. After the immunity challenge, Tony reminded us of his plan to target the Hyenas and he was about to get one. Even at Tribal Council, Tony had to tell Adam how the game is played: “We don’t say the name out loud; we go up there and vote.”

Tony the “know-it-all” is a new role for our cop and his advices have been correct up to now. However, I think Tony should concentrate more on his own game than in helping the others.


Denise:
No one chose her for the Reward Challenge and she wasn’t much part of the group’s discussion at the end.
The only time we noticed her was when she told Kim she wanted to go after Sarah.

If word gets back to the policewoman, things could get dicey for Denise.

Michelle: In the first interview of the evening, Michelle told us that she was upset at being left out of the loop and that she would have voted against Wendell if she had been informed. To Nick, she said she hated all these people. Michelle read her two fortune cookies and their message (“As the purse is emptied, the heart is filled” and “Don’t be afraid to take that big step”) inspired her next decision: From Parvati, she received a 50:50 chance at safety; a coin that she’d have to flip and see if it lands on the “Safe” or “Not Safe” side. She took the chance and bought it for 4 Fire Tokens.

This was a better episode for Michelle but her name is still mentioned as an outsider. The 50/50 coin was rather expensive so let’s hope she gets her money’s worth.

Jeremy: He couldn’t believe that Sarah gave her reward to Nick. He reminded us that he had given up a reward before only to be rewarded by elimination. Moments after Probst had praised Jeremy for a nice recovery, saying: “This is how you stay alive in this game”, we heard everyone laughing at the way Jeremy fell into the ocean.

I’ll take the laughter that we heard when Jeremy fell off his perch during the Immunity Challenge as a clue that he will make a stupid move that will cost him the game.

Sarah: She gave her seat at the reward feast to the birthday boy, Nick. She claimed it wasn’t a strategic decision, that it was just a way to show that they could be kind to each other. Everything is strategic in this game. Adam’s interview right after the challenge had already made the point to the viewers. Right after hearing Tony’s interview about the “Barbaric Survivor” we heard Jeremy, Denise and Adam agreeing that it was a strategic move.

Will this move cost Sarah in the end? The players are well aware that she is a dangerous player so her time could be coming soon.


Nick:
Nick didn’t like knowing he had been the alternate vote, especially considering it had been his birthday; he was going to let them have it. In his interview, he told us that the bloodshed had started and that he’d have no problem getting on board with that strategy; “I love blood” he said. During the reward, despite the taste of Chinese food still in his mouth, Nick told us he didn’t owe anything to Sarah. He started the chaos at camp by telling Tyson, out of the blue, that his name had been mentioned by Sophie. He told us it was his way to take control of the game because he was tired of being told what to do.

This is the first strong episode for Nick so it could be the start of a winning arc but he comes from so far behind that it still seems unlikely.

Kim: Probst made a point out of the fact that Kim chose the better team over Jeremy so can we take that as a hint that she’ll pick the better alliance down the road? I noticed that the editors captioned Kim’s welcome to Nick, making sure we noticed it: “Welcome to the Ladies’ team”. Is that a clue that a “ladies’ team will take over the game, maybe with the help of one boy leading to a FFM Final Three? Let’s keep it in mind. Her fortune cookies read: “You will make changes for the better”. Will she? Strangely, we heard words from two players during the Immunity Challenge: Jeremy was the first and that was to make us laugh while the other was Kim and her words were inspirational: “Don’t get distracted” and “Ride it” she told herself. Those words served her well in the challenge because, after a big battle with Ben, she won the Immunity challenge.

When the tribe returned to camp, Kim had the first interview, saying that it shouldn’t be a difficult vote; they could split it between Nick and Adam who, with Michelle, were not in the “big group”. Her preference was to eliminate Nick. When Denise told her that a group wanted to go after Sarah, Kim did the right thing, first telling Denise she was fine with that but then rallying Tyson against the idea of voting Sarah.

Not every Fortune cookie was read. For example, we never heard Nick and Sophie’s fortunes so maybe the ones that made it on the air were clues. Ben’s seem to indicate a challenge win or two, Michelle’s gave her the courage to buy the 50/50 Coin but Kim’s cookie seemed to have more importance for the long run. Making changes for the better is certainly needed for someone who, up to this point, had been clearly neglected by the cameras and the interviewers. Is this the start of Kim’s story arc, one in which the changes she makes improves her situation. This could be the sign that Kim makes it to the Final Three. She’ll have to continue telling herself: Don’t get distracted” and “Ride it.” Another hint came at the end of the second round: Sophie said: “Good job, Sarah” who, in turn, looked to her left and said: “Good job, Kim” who simply responded: “Thank you”. Will that be how the Finale goes: Sarah will be complimented for a good job while Kim gets to thank everyone? Kim comes from far back in the peloton so it is hard to see her staying up there as a contender especially when next week’s preview has her saying: “I am ready to go to the edge trying to make a move.” That has double meaning this season and could be a sign that she does go to the Edge of Extinction.

Sophie: She was not a factor in this episode.

I really don’t like the fact that my top contender was ignored in such a big episode but maybe it was to distance her from the chaos. Unlike Jeremy and others she didn’t appear confused at all because she never had a chance to express herself one way or the other. All I can say is that 1 invisible episode isn’t fatal, especially for a women’s edit but it would be harder to justify two. She needs to have a strong episode next time on Survivor to remain as our Top Contender.


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04-15-20, 07:54 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Episode 10 - Playing on the Edge:"
Great assessments, michel! As always, thank you!

For me, Tony had 2 of the most significant confessionals of the show. But, at the start of the show it was Tony that consoled the blindsided Nick after arrival back to camp. It's Tony that is working hard at relationships and bonding with those on the bottom, we are being shown his social game this go round. His first had him commenting on Sarah's one emotional humane moment that could cost her, instead of that barbaric Survivor that she needed to be. Will he be the barbaric Survivor that he needs to be later?

Then, he had a confessional that underlined the antipathy between the Lions and Hyenas.He's going after them. Later, it's indeed a "hyena" that walks the walk.

Nick was significant this episode as he vows revenge, he loves blood, he's going to go after everyone that has blindsided him. AS the "head hyena" is it too little too late? I have to wonder. He appreciated Sarah's reward, but he doesn't owe her anything. She would vote him out, if told to. Finally, he's tired of hearing his name come out, if there is more and more chaos, that's good for him. (We saw him go to Tyson and tell him that he heard Sophie say his name....)

Tyson is learning. He noted that the more chaos that is going around, the more they forget about who started it. Tyson turned the vote on Adam. Tyson is the only old schooler left in the game with a whole EoE island of Old schoolers who will be sitting on the jury. I cannot help but think his days are numbered.

Michelle comments on her being blindsided again, and then later on the highs and lows of the game. Thanks to her two fortunes in her cookies, she pays 4 fire tokens for the 50/50. I have a feeling that it will serve her will in the future.

Kim. I know she's made it this far but I can't help think that Kim's days are seriously numbered. She's just not present in the game. The entire first part she was too depressed thinking of and missing her family. Now, finally, she wins a challenge, which, imo, is going to not be a good thing for her. Definitely will shine a light on her challenge prowess. She comments on how this will be an "easy" vote with the majority and notes that Nick, Adam and Michelle were on the outs. Personally, she would prefer Nick. She just seems so out of touch. Everyone else around her seems to be playing the game, while she's out of the loop, imo.

Sarah: IMHO, has made a huge error in judgement. EVERYONE thought it was a strategic move. They are onto her, they know how she played her last game, as Adam told us. This was major doubt thrown on Sarah as winner.

Just a few observations.


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04-20-20, 05:41 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: Episode 10 - Playing on the Edge:"
"In the last round, Jeremy saw the chance to have an all-male team so he seized it leaving Kim with the task of choosing who would participate and who would miss the reward."

In Adam's Virtual Watch Party he said Jeremy picked last and it came down to Adam or Denise. I would guess Jeremy picked Adam because even though he is short he is a lot taller than Denise for the swimming/wading in water portion.

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04-17-20, 09:28 PM (EST)
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28. "Episode 11 - There Will be Blood!"
Welcome to the Early Show starring Jeff Probst.

Tonight’s guests include Survivor Winners and their Familes.
And Heeeere’s Jiffy!

(You may have thought you had tuned in the wrong channel; I hate to be the one to tell you but that was indeed Survivor, or what it’s become these days. I think Jiffy’s biggest career regret has been the network’s refusal to give him a talk show, shoe-boxing him in this role of Survivor Host.)

I must say that I was amused to see that production went to the trouble of setting up 10 stations that included 10 hoops and balls to make the players think they’d have to go through a challenge. What was less amusing is that Jeff has become so formulaic that as soon as he said the words “...who you are playing for...” the players immediately knew they were having the family visit even if it had never occurred this early. Right on cue, these reality TV characters became actors following production’s script and we were in for a crying session. After all, we were watching Survivor Winners; those that had already proven they could do what the show demanded.

Once all the tribes had made it back to camp, Ben had the first interview: He was surprised that the family visit had come so early but he was grateful.

We heard Sarah giving an interview while we saw her playing in the water with Tyson’s daughter. At that moment she felt everyone was putting their guns down. She was letting her sons “play with the enemy.”

Come on down!

Ta-dah ta-dam! Ta-dah Ta-dam! (playing to The Price is Right » music. Short of a talk show, I’m sure Probst would have loved his own game show)

Tonight’s contestants include all the Survivor winners left in the game.

Tony YOU are the winner of tonight’s showcase showdown!

Ben also had the post-game interview where he told us that this vote would reveal who was in control of this tribe. “Tonight, there will be blood” he said.

Koru Day 25

OK gang! grab your pop-corn, the Survivor episode is about to start.

Tony, for the first time in 3 seasons, was happy to be “wearing the bullet-proof vest.” He was surprised that it happened on a game that demanded a slow and steady approach because he was usually “fast and sloppy”! Tony does manufacture some funny quotes. He knew that people would come to him with ideas.

Sure enough, Jeremy was fast to suggest they break the Sophie-Sarah pair. Even if Tony said that Ben would never agree to it, Jeremy pushed on, telling us that the two women’s bond was dangerous for people like him who was basically playing by himself. He was frustrated to learn that Tony would not do that. His interview ended with him saying: “I don’t have a voice and that’s not how it should be.”

Despite that, HE would later choose to leave Tribal Council BEFORE his voice, in the form of his vote, could actually be heard.

Sarah talked to Tony, telling him she wanted to eliminate Kim. The policeman preferred going after Tyson. In interview, Sarah explained that Kim would win the game if they didn’t vote her out.

The conversation between Sarah and Tony continued, showing us that this was probably the most dysfunctional alliance in Survivor since Boston Rob and Big Tom in the first All-Stars. This was going to end badly, she concluded and I’m guessing she will be proven right.

When Tony saw that Jeremy and Kim went for a talk, he asked Ben and Nick if they were ready to blindside Jeremy. Tony told us that Jeremy was very fishy.

Talking to Jeremy, Kim invited Tyson to join the pair while we heard her interview in voice-over: “There’s a lot of chaos in camp.” She needed to come up with a different plan because she wasn’t part of the conversations in camp.

The three realized they had to play together, counting on Denise and Michelle to join them. Kim told Tyson and Jeremy that she had an idol. She wanted to use it to vote Sophie.

Tony told a surprised Sarah that Jeremy had been firing shots at her so they had to change the votes again.

Informed of Jeremy’s advantage, Tyson replied that he couldn’t use it because they needed his vote or else they would come up short.

In interview, Jeremy explained his dilemma: He could have safety but his alliance needed him for a vote.

Just before they left for Tribal Council, Sophie told us she wanted Sarah to play her steal-a-vote advantage so that their group could be safe.

Tribal Council

It was a mess as it has become now that production has dropped the “talk-only-when-you-are-spoken-to-by-Jeff” rule that Burnett had enforced from the start.

Right off the bat, Kim talked to Michelle, causing Sarah to go to Ben and Nick to whisper in Sophie’s ear. Tyson joined the conversation between Kim and Michelle. We then saw Michelle stand and go to the side where Sophie, Sarah, Nick and Jeremy were sitting but we were never shown with whom she talked. THIS will be important later on. Like us, the jury was trying to keep track.

After a game of chicken, (where I believe Sarah did say she wanted to steal Jeremy’s vote but, since he was leaving TC, there wasn’t going to be a vote to steal. Jeff probably had to yell “Cut” while production sorted the mess that their cornucopia of advantages had created.) we finally, had a ruling: Jeremy’s “Advantage without Power” had to be played first and THEN Sarah could steal a vote.

Jeremy left, Sarah stole the vote that Denise was going to cast and Kim played her idol to protect Denise.

In the end Kim and Tyson voted for Sophie.

Sophie and Sarah, using one of her two votes, voted for Denise.

Sarah, with her second vote, joined Ben, Nick, Tony AND Michelle in eliminating Tyson.

The Characters

Jeremy: He cannot win this game. We saw the jury’s reaction when he left Tribal Council: Pointing to the distraught Kim, Tyson, Michelle and Denise. Wendell said: “That was his squad right there”, Parvati quickly adding: “He abandoned ship” to which Wendell replied: “He left his squad”.

Nick: How did he weasel his way into the alliance? Could the family visit have changed the game once more? Nick, Michelle and Sophie were the only three players still in the game without kids so maybe there was a special bond created by their partners before the big meeting. If not, then maybe during the feast the three couples got together away from the screaming kids to make a special bond. Independently of the mechanism, Nick who had been an outsider was now right there in the small majority. Even if he makes it to the end, what could Nick possibly sell to the jury?

Denise: The events should have put her in a central role but we heard very little from her. The story isn’t being told from her perspective at all so we cannot see her as a contender.

Sarah: In this joyous episode there was a meanness associated with Sarah’s presentation that makes me think she will not be our winner. Tony was much more diplomatic than her and that is saying a lot. Also, it seems evident that Sophie is the person in charge in this couple. To prove that, we just have to look at the last interview of the episode where it was Sophie who talked about using Sarah’s steal-a-vote advantage, hoping that she could convince Sarah to use it.

Tony: He continues to have fun and our newly appointed “Survivor savant” Tony could very well take his new approach all the way to the end but, like Sarah said: I think it will end badly for him.

Ben: Despite a very little actual role to play in this episode, Ben received a lot of airtime, having the first interview when the tribe returned to camp with their families and then the interview after the challenge. During the pre-merger we gave Adam the role of narrator but we now realize that it was simply because he was in the best place to tell us Ben’s story. We know Ben is Probst’s favorite but does this explain such a big edit?

Kim: How much importance should we put on the fact that they didn’t vote Kim out of the game? Will she win the game as Sarah suggested? It will be hard for her to survive the next cycles but if she does then maybe Sarah’s words will have to be seen as prophetic.

Michelle: While she wasn’t part of Sophie’s discussion group, I believe Michelle was with the group of five all along. She could then have acted as an agent double, stealing Kim’s pitch and relaying it to Sophie’s team. The editors even played into it, not showing us who Michelle talked with during the first phase of scrambling. I don’t think it was by happenstance that Michelle stood away from the other three and looked directly at the group of five when they broke huddle as we clearly see here:


I think there was a quick, silent exchange of information and that Sophie and her group knew Michelle was going to vote against Tyson.

Sophie: She clearly steered the vote after Jeremy left the Council: She stood up and asked her five to go make a decision away from the others. With Sarah eager to eliminate Kim and Tony pointing the finger at the elusive Jeremy, we saw that, once again, the game came down to “Sophie’s Choice”. It was in the huddle that she organized that the decision was made to go after Tyson, outwitting even Kim who gave her idol to Denise. If we continue to see the votes decided by Sophie’s Choices then she will have to be crowned Sole Survivor.


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04-26-20, 02:57 PM (EST)
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30. "Episode 12 - The Double Agent:"
Jeff was the star of last week’s episode but this week was all about

The Double Agent

The first image we had to start the show was a snake covering the season’s medallion; the symbolism was perfect since a snake was going to overrun the camp.

Jeremy was still alone in camp. In interview he told us he wasn’t about to leave the game with an advantage in his pocket. When he asked for details of the vote, no one really answered him.

In his interview, Ben told us that their original plan was to vote against Jeremy. He was confident in his group of five (even if it included Tony!) and that Jeremy was still public enemy number one.

After trying to convince Ben that he’d be seen as the biggest remaining threat, Jeremy told us that Tyson was his shield and he needs shields to win the game.

After talking about Kim of the chaotic situation, Michelle confessed that she was on the bottom because she had been left out of the vote. Her group, which included Jeremy, Denise and Kim, was left spinning like a top.

The sun wasn’t up yet but it was time for Tony to spring into action. His objective: Find an IDOL! He had been patient and hadn’t caused paranoia but now was the time to go to work. Even if he got interrupted by Nick, Tony managed to fix the situation by simply suggesting the water well as a good place for Nick to search. Of course, Tony had already searched that area! Jumping with joy, Tony found the idol that was tucked under a rock.

An Interlude

With Sarah creating new designs we had a fashion show with Michelle and Kim parading on the catwalk. Production even included house music to accompany the show and the camp fire provided the smoke and light show.

This scene reminded me of the good days of Survivor when we got to see more of the players’ personalities. This type of scene has become so rare that I found it refreshing.

Sarah used this scene to compare her game to Tony’s. He was all flash while she was a social player.

Could this interview be setting the stage for the Jury’s debate? Will they have to decide between Tony and Sarah’s game and determine which type of game deserves to be rewarded? With Michelle and Kim parading in front of potential future jurors during Sarah’s confessional, I’m thinking Kim, Michelle, Tony and Sarah could very well be our Final Four.

All this “non-sense” was irritating Tony who wanted to play the game. Jeremy was his target because he didn’t want to go to the end with him. That’s when he decided to go undercover, telling Jeremy partial truths and some lies about the last Tribal Council. Tony went as far to say he had been blindsided by the vote. He even told Michelle and Kim that he wasn’t going to vote against Jeremy. He wanted to have the fun of working both sides to blindside someone.

With the editors twice flashing Jeremy’s words that Tony was “extremely believable” we can say: Mission Accomplished, Tony!

In his interview, Jeremy even told us: “I think this group is solid: Michelle, Kim, Denise and Tony.” He thought he had five out of nine which was good for his game.

Notice that, at the time, Tony was shown on screen, walking alone to the ocean. The symbol was clear: Tony is a loner, not a group member.

Talking to Denise, Kim showed us that she knew what Tony was doing. She even used the words “Double Agent”.

In her interview, Kim called it a “psychotic double agent act” to repair his relationship with Jeremy. That made Tony her biggest enemy out there.

I just want to take a moment to look at the editing as it pertains to the scene between Parvati and Natalie. Natalie solved the clue but Parvati received the credit. We clearly heard Parvati fixating on the word “crown” so it had to be on top of the hill. Natalie concentrated on the word “rest” so she was thinking about the camp and their shelter. Only then did Parvati figure out that it was under the shelter. With Parvati narrating the whole scene it looked like she made a big contribution but, in actuality, Natalie found the bottle, deciphered the clue and discovered the note. Editors gave Parvati all the credit in the world during Micronesia even though it was Cirie who did all the work so I guess nothing new.

The Extortion Advantage

A jubilant Tony realized he had a scroll in his bag. Unable to contain himself, he raced to a secluded spot. As soon as he read the word extortion, he exclaimed with joy; for once he’d be allowed to be the mobster instead of the cop. His joy soon faded when he realized he was the one being extorted. Now that he wasn’t doing the extortion, he wanted someone to do prison time.
Double Agent/ Double Standards, I can see that going hand in hand!

Notice another throwback to the good old days: We heard Denise reading the TREE MAIL for the next challenge! When was the last time that happened? One thing I can say is that the author of the tree mail is just as bad as before. But hey! I prided myself in writing these cheesy tree mail messages in the games I managed so I loved it.

Feeling the pressure, Tony went to work first on Michelle but she had no Fire Tokens to give. She had to come up with a lie in order to hide the fact that she had the 50/50 advantage.

Hearing that Michelle spent 4 Fire Tokens on a EoE advantage, Tony realized that prices were going up.

Michelle was so fooled by Tony that she did his dirty work and got Jeremy to give him 1 Token. Jeremy told us he wanted Tony to trust him.

Needing two more Tokens, Tony went to his “real” alliance and got one from both Ben and Nick.

Tony not only got to play in the immunity challenge but he got to win it after outlasting Jeremy, who was his target... at that time!

I noticed that Jeremy, who had been solid up to that point, dropped out as soon as Ben was eliminated. I’m thinking Jeremy was sure he already had a deal with Tony.

In his post-game interview, Tony said he’d pay back his debt and vote out Jeremy.

Did Tony pay back anyone? Hopefully we’ll learn next week. He should have paid back Ben to keep him in the dark about his true intentions but then the question becomes: When did Tony know what he was going to do?

Scrambling

The seas were rough while the Winners at War got down to business.

In interview, Kim told us she didn’t want Tony to win but she was now happy he did because it put a target on his back. She had to get back into the bigger group and she succeeded because we heard Sarah telling her that the two of them would vote against Michelle.

Denise also felt she had regain some control over the situation: She was convincing Jeremy that they could eliminate Ben and that Tony was with them while confiding that it was time to cut the bond she had with Jeremy. She was in cahoots with Kim to blindside Jeremy.

Jeremy confided that his feelings for Ben had changed; he had been his friend now he was annoying.

Realizing that the tempo of the game was slowing down, Tony told us it was time to flip flop. He didn’t like the fact that Sophie was too close to his partner Sarah so it should be Sophie. Since his original alliance was splitting their votes, it would be easy because he didn’t need a lot of votes. Jeremy and Michelle would jump at his idea so all he needed was Nick. Hitting them just before sunset, he got Nick on board and then revealed the whole dirty plan to Jeremy, making him realize that Kim and Denise aren’t with him.

Jeremy told us he didn’t know what to believe.

Tony couldn’t believe that he had to beg Jeremy to save Jeremy! Tony’s interview ended with a stern warning to Jeremy: If you still want to go with your plan to eliminate Ben then you are going home tonight.

The Characters


Ben:
I guess he forgot to stay awake 24 hours for 39 days straight because he was sleeping when Tony found his idol. It was interesting to see Jeremy staring straight at him while the votes were read. That stare meant; you thought you had me but I got you.

Denise: As much as she tries, she’s never in the loop for very long. She thought it was time to cut Jeremy but where can she go without him?

Nick: He continues to play like a windmill, turning every way with the wind. That kind of game cannot win because he’s the enabler, not the creator.

Jeremy: While he was saved, the presentation made it clear that he was clueless for most of the 3 days. He was never told exactly what happened during the Tribal Council he missed, he believed Tony when Tony was targeting him and he almost didn’t believe Tony when Tony was trying to save him. Jeremy told us often enough that he needs control in this game but was clearly saw that he has none.

Michelle: Parading in front of the shelter looked like an indication of what will happen to Michelle at the end; she’ll parade in front of the jury and, once again, it will only be for show, not for dough.

Kim: Even if she thought Tony was targeting Jeremy, Kim is still the only one showing signs of understanding Tony and his game. So, in that sense, Kim may also parade in front of the jury alongside Michelle and Tony but she will receive some credit from the jurors.

Sarah: She was burned by her partner and will certainly seek revenge but I have a feeling she’ll have to move back in line. In Cagayan, Trish looked like she suffered from the Stockholm Syndrome, staying with Tony even after his repeated betrayals and while I don’t think Sarah is quite as gullible, she’ll realize she doesn’t have much of a shot.

Tony: Jeremy said during Tribal Council that it is all a question of timing and we have to wonder if Tony acted too early. Normally, you want to blindside your allies ONE move before they blindside you and this looked like 3 or 4 moves too early. It would be fairly easy for Jeremy, Kim, Denise, Nick and Michelle to patch things up, leaving Tony high and dry but this episode was “The Tony Show” so I have to think that, having revealed their star to the audience, the editors are going to continue the build up to his coronation. Could Tony be the Sole Survivor? It certainly looks possible now.


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PepeLePew13 26111 desperate attention whore postings
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04-26-20, 11:30 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: Episode 12 - The Double Agent:"
LAST EDITED ON 04-26-20 AT 11:31 PM (EST)

>Nick: He continues to play like a windmill, turning every way with the wind.

Last week, you said about Tony, "...I think it will end badly for him."

This week, "Could Tony be the Sole Survivor? It certainly looks possible now."

I think that's funny.

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04-27-20, 06:58 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: Episode 12 - The Double Agent:"
I'm glad to see that you are reading. Nick is playing for $2 Million dollars and he's doing poorly. "Une Girouette" we call it in French. As for my roundabout, I'm writing for fun so what if I was wrong? At least it proves that I don't have spoilers.


And to reassure you I can tell you that when I played Survivor, albeit on line, I always had a plan and it worked well quite a few times.

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04-27-20, 08:00 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: Episode 12 - The Double Agent:"
Thanks michel!

Before the season I thought the 11 Winners who had only played One season would make sure none of those 9 players who have already played Multiple Seasons would win.

Now we are down to 8 Winners

  • 5 Winners have played only Once (Ben, Denise, Nick, Michele, Kim)
  • 3 Winners have played Twice (Jeremy, Sarah, Tony)

    If I were one of the FIVE One time players I would see this as a great chance to take out the remaining Three Two time players but none of their edits feels like a Winner!

    So I thought it would be fun to see what you had to say about the 3 remaining Two season players back when there were 8 Players remaining in their Winning Season and also back in the Episode before they got voted out.

    I highlighted some parts in their Winning Season that are very similar to what's going on in S40!



    S28: Sarah After Ep 6 - Final 11; Voted out in Ep 7

    The Emotional Players:

    Sarah: The scene at the reward challenge told us that Sarah isn’t a very clinical player. Cliff’s elimination was good for her because it showed her new tribe mates that the Brawn tribe wasn’t a solid group. However, it would have helped her even more if she could have convinced everyone that this vote wasn’t what she wanted, that she had been with Cliff.

    However, if an emotional player were to win this season, it would be Sarah. The biggest problem with her story was her gullibility. We frequently saw that she fell for all of Tony’s lies so, for someone that was proud of her ability to see the truth, we couldn’t reconcile her portrayal with a winner’s edit. Now that the scales have fallen from her eyes enabling her to make plans that won’t include Tony, we could say that she is on the right path.

    There is still the matter of the thrown challenge though. It is especially damning considering that this police officer immediately thought that a black man was guilty and she didn’t even give him a chance to prove his innocence. We know that the editors protected Tom in Palau, deciding not to air his talk with Gregg about throwing the last Tribal Immunity Challenge to get rid of Coby. Much like with Aparris’s plan, Stephenie and BJ were so terrible at puzzles that Coby won it on his own even if Gregg went as slow as he possibly could. Since her plan failed, I have to believe the editors would have removed all the evidence, covering up their winner’s mess. .. if she was the winner. For me, Sarah will be the enabler, the one that decides which way the game goes but she will reach a point where she will have to realize she should have done things differently. Sarah’s story, like all journey edits, is sending her towards a realization rather than a million dollars.

    S34: Sarah After Ep 12 - Final 8 Remaining like in S40

    Sarah: With an idol, a vote steal and production doing back-flips in her favor, there is very little doubt that Sarah will have a huge impact on the conclusion of this story. The way she got her secret advantage under everyone’s nose was questionable but the way she got the Legacy advantage was simply unrealistic. Viewers will applaud her acting skills but Sierra had to know that Sarah voted against her. The desire to create a real “game changer” makes the whole show lose credibility.



    S28: Tony After Ep 9 - Final 8 Remaining like in S40

    The Player

    Tony: What can I say about Tony that hasn’t been said already? His plan failed. Sure, he was able to eliminate LJ but that wasn’t his plan. He wanted to pin all the trouble in camp on LJ so that his whole alliance would want to get rid of him. Only Woo followed. He didn’t want to be seen as the bad guy but that is exactly what he accomplished. He wanted to use Spencer and Jeremiah for only one vote and then return to his alliance. He may have to hook up his wagon to theirs instead. LJ did say that it was well played, but I doubt that he will be so generous when it comes to award the million. We heard so much about the need for the alliance of six to stick together that Tony’s move became a copy/paste of Kass’ betrayal.

    The Pawns (If one of them makes it to the end, they will win) (Jeremiah, Tasha, Spencer)


    S34: Tony After Ep 1 - Final 19; Voted out in Ep 2

    Tony: Judging by his exit interviews after Cagayan, Tony thinks he’s a great player. He isn’t. He thinks his skills earned him the title of Sole Survivor. They didn’t. Luck and an overpowered idol did it all. From a pre-game poll, we have 6 people (Andrea, Hali, JT, Sierra, Tai and Varner) all wanting to vote him out first so unless he finds another idol very quickly, Tony is dead meat. Tony was part of the Reunion 7 so I’ll be generous and give him a 5% chance of winning but that’s mostly because I’ve just realized that I have 5% left after going over everyone else and who am I going to get that? Debbie?!?!



    S29: Jeremy after Ep 8 - Final 10; Jeremy Voted Out in Ep 9

    The Gentlemen

    Jeremy: His edit is almost perfect for a winner and we saw that he is a true competitor when he didn’t showboat after his crucial immunity win. Can he win after he was so definitely saved by Julie’s quit? It could be said that it wasn’t luck, he saved himself by winning immunity but then we never saw him talk to Jon or Jaclyn to rally their votes. He wasn’t credited at all for the turn around so that is even more inauspicious for him. It’s doesn’t get better when we consider that he seems oblivious to the idols. I do believe that Jeremy is living on borrowed times. Jon had to express his worries about Jeremy to Missy before agreeing to eliminate Josh but we certainly didn’t hear their whole conversation. What if Missy promised him to target Jeremy as soon as the pigs have been slaughtered? We know that Jeremy doesn’t trust Jon and he has good reason to be worried but he doesn’t know that Jon has an idol and maybe more votes on his side.

    S31: Jeremy after Ep 11 - Final 8 Remaining like in S40

    The Players – One of these three characters is playing the part of the season’s winner. They are very hard to separate which makes it fun for those of us who aren’t spoiled. (Jeremy, Spencer, Kelley)

    Jeremy: While the first episode put some much needed doubt on Jeremy’s path to victory, the second showed that he had completely misread the situation. He thought he could go back to his power group but he lost a key ally in Spencer. Tasha and Kimmi may have been ready to take him back but Spence wasn’t fooled. Like we suspected, Jeremy kept Spencer too long and now he’s starting to pay for that early mistake. Jeremy was the one that said you’d have to be dumb to go against the Bayon alliance but he was the one that effectively destroyed it. We could even say that there are now 5 ex-Takeo members and only 3 true Bayon players. Quite a reversal of fortunes, isn’t it? Still, Jeremy has an idol, Joe is still a huge threat and Keith is a free agent so there is room for Jeremy to regain power. While we heard Ciera say that he would win the game if he was allowed to make it to the end, Mr Teflon hasn’t been directly put on the chopping block yet at least in what we have been allowed to hear. Is it to hide his upcoming downfall or are the editors trying to present us with a new Earl, someone that will win the game with a near perfect social game? Will Ciera’s prophecy come true? The Macbeth angle didn’t last very long and maybe it only applied to Stephen but who knows?



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    04-29-20, 07:38 PM (EST)
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    34. "RE: Episode 12 - The Double Agent:"
    Excellent take on the episode, Michel, I truly enjoyed your take on things. I totally agree at this point. From the very beginning of the Season, Tony has always gotten dynamic confessionals that talk about his strategy, then we see it on air. He says what he means and he sticks to it. He's definitely one of the very top contenders to win this season. I would love it, he brings me great joy, the way he plays.

    I thought Sarah's confessional was very interesting and bit ironic. Talking about how different their games were and that she had the social game, yet Tony ran circles around her that episode. And, he had to involve many to get his way....Michele, Jeremy, Nick, Ben. Tony's antics were very social, especially in the beginning, his ladder building skills, his crazy shark skills, etc. He was the camp jester. If that's not social, I don't know what is.

    Like others, with such an increase in visibility, I have to wonder if this was indeed too much too soon. Time will tell. At this point, Nick is under the radar again! He's with Kim and Denise at the bottom. But, as we have seen in years past, one of those three could indeed make it to end game, however, I don't think they could win at this point.

    I keep expecting Ben to have some kind of a break out episode. He also told us at the beginning of the game that he wanted to work on his social skills. He's tight with Sarah, he thought he had a tight five....Ben needs to throw it into his high gear or he will be left in the dust.

    Jeremy has told us time and again he likes to be driving the bus, but everytime Jeremy chooses the boot, it seems it's a fail. Tony played him big time this episode. He came across as a pawn. Will this lion turn into a hyena?

    Finally, Sarah. I would love to see her and Tony at the end. I love the way Sarah plays, she's so awesome and has the ability to really connect with her tribe mates. No matter how mad she will be at Tony, I can see them getting back in line, they need each other.

    Looking forward to how this season wraps up. But, frankly, I think this season has definitely supported the Tony story.

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    04-30-20, 09:02 PM (EST)
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    35. "Episode 13 - Tony's the Boss"
    Night 28 started with the tribes getting back to camp and the image we see is Kim stumbling and nearly falling to the ground.

    Although we saw Tony helping her stay up, this looks like an omen of what was about to happen in the episode.

    Jeremy had the opening interview, telling us that Tribal Council was crazy, that Ben tried to make a move against him and he was now angry. Jeremy called him a child.

    Sarah, telling the group that it was a grimy move, went off to talk with Tony while we heard her interview: “This was Tony’s idiotic move but I told myself: “Sarah; keep your cool and don’t be pissed.”

    The cameras immediately showed that she didn’t keep her cool and she was pissed! “You just sunk my game; I’m done” she yelled at Tony.

    Sarah’s confessional continued, telling us that Tony’s move wasn’t good, that they were doing fine before.

    That analysis matches the one we made at the end of the last episode; Tony made the move too early. However, he will have recovered before the end of the episode.

    In his interview, Tony told us he was surprised by the reaction: “Usually you blindside somebody, you get back to camp, you hash it all out and everybody says it’s OK. Not this time. This time it’s deep wounds, man! This is war; stop crying and put your man panties on and go to war.”

    Tony certainly has a strange way with words but it works for him.

    Tony told both Ben and Sarah that he had an idol.

    Ben told us that, despite Tony telling him about his idol, he wasn’t sure if he could trust him. He was still fixating on getting Jeremy out of the game.

    The answer is simple Ben: Don’t trust ANYONE! By the way, what can be made of the image of bird poop apparently falling on Tony’s arm? There used to be a school of spoiling thought that a bug seen on a player’s body was enough to eliminate that player but what about bird excrements?! I always said Tony was one of the luckiest winners ever and now he is full of sh*t, literally! In Russia, having a Bird Poop on you means good things are coming your way and in French, a lucky person is full of “merde” (sh*t). So his lucky streak may continue.

    Day 29 started with a running Tony telling us that he was looking for a way to spy on people. His new spot would be up in a tree overlooking the water well. No one seemed to come except Sarah so he climbed back down.

    Sarah’s confessional told us she didn’t approve of Tony’s method: “If we were in the real world and Tony and I were partners, one of us would be fired.” She told us that they were protecting each other’s back but his relentless drive could get him voted out.

    Right then, Kim was in camp trying to rally the votes against Tony. Jeremy and Ben were there with her but Ben, once more acting like a child, didn’t want to talk to Jeremy. Still, talking to each individually at first, Kim got Jeremy, Denise, Ben, Michelle and Nick’s attention. Tony had to go and they all agreed.

    In her interview, Michelle explained why she was turning against Tony. “This game is about power and this is the opportunity to gain a little control and take out Tony’ she said.

    If only the plan had worked...

    On the Edge of Extinction, we saw that Natalie and Sophie still had a lot of energy in the tank, finishing their arduous task first and earning two fire Tokens each. Yul, Tyson, Parvati and Wendell also completed the task with Danni unfortunately finishing one spot out of the money. Rob fell and hurt his elbow badly. He said it cracked.

    Back at Koru, Jeremy was telling Sarah that Ben had called him his “ride-or-die” but now he didn’t even want to talk. Then we saw Sarah arguing with Tony again.

    This led to Nick’s interview: “The more people are fighting, the more there is a war, the more there is friendly fire, the more I can crank it up.” He was thinking about who should be at the end with him and how to get everybody else out.

    Despite a very poor role up to now this season, Nick is certainly sitting in a good position. He is with all the factions and hasn’t ruffled any feathers. However, he doesn’t have much of a case to present to the jury so thinking about who to take to the end is critical for him. He knew that Jeremy, Sarah and Tony would beat him in the end.

    Nick then approached Michelle and Denise. Michelle astutely pointed out that the three of them were on an equal playing field.

    Nick could do well facing these two although I’d still favor Denise.

    Nick’s confessional continued with him telling us that he knew he had to make big moves in order to stand out.

    There is still time for that big move but we’ll see that Nick is still just turning with every little breeze that comes along.
    At that time, Sarah told us that Sophie’s idol had to be out there waiting for someone else to take it.

    That launched a big search in the woods.

    Working with Tony, Ben was the one to find it. He momentarily tried to hide his find from the cop but he didn’t do a good job of it. That made Tony worry for a bit but finally, the two hugged.

    In dueling interviews, Ben and Tony told us what happened. Tony was a little hurt that Ben didn’t trust him while Ben wanted Tony to be reassured because he also had an idol and Ben wasn’t sure which way he wanted to go.

    The Immunity Challenge

    With two necklaces in play, one for the men and one for the women, and the competition down to only 3 women and two men, it was surprising to see Kim, Michelle and Nick choosing to drop out for Peanut Butter and Chocoloate, giving immunity to Denise and Tony. At least Nick got one of Tony’s Tokens for dropping out.

    At least, Probst gave Michelle, Kim and Nick a few minutes to enjoy the food because the challenge ended right when Nick stepped down. Imagine the cruelty that he could have displayed, saying: “You opted to eat until the challenge ended but that ended the challenge so eating time is over!”

    In his post-game interview, Tony said that paying one token for the immunity necklace was a great deal.

    After the challenge, a group of five seemed to form centering on Kim. It included Michelle, Denise, Nick and Ben. In order to satisfy Ben they agreed to target Jeremy.

    Nick explained in interview that he wanted to win the immunity challenge but that he was about to fall off. For him, getting the food and one Fire Token was a good compensation. Sending Jeremy to EoE still made it a win-win situation.

    Michelle was distraught. She explained that she was closest to Jeremy.

    Informing Tony that the group was voting against Jeremy, Ben informed Tony that he was their original target.

    In his interview, Tony told us how he felt after learning Kim’s plan: It was a big deal to him.

    Tony asked Nick if he heard his name being mentioned as a possible target.

    Nick had the absolute worst poker face I have ever seen.

    Caught completely off guard, Nick just stared at Tony as if the cop had spoken to him in Chinese. He was trying to remember if he had heard Kim and Denise saying that Tony had to go. He played with his beard, he scratched his shoulder, he shook his head, he shuffled his feet left and right, he looked to the heavens and then closed his eyes to concentrate on the question and, before he finally admitted being part of the conversation, his prolonged silence had already told Tony exactly what he wanted to know.

    Tony was 100% worried about Kim trying to get him out. Ben and Sarah agreed they had to work with Jeremy to prevent a takeover of the game by Kim’s group. Tony went to work on Ben toichange his vote from Jeremy to Kim, telling him Kim had to be stopped. Tony proposed an alliance between the soldier, the two cops and the fireman.

    Wanting to save Jeremy, Michelle gave him her 50/50 advantage.

    Having paid 4 Fire Tokens for this advantage, you’d think Michelle would have asked Jeremy for his Fire Token but she was never considered a smart contestant. Since Jeremy didn’t play it, I hope she demands it back.

    Jeremy talked to Ben who finally agreed to listen. Jeremy suggested they vote against Kim but Jeremy wasn’t sure if he got through.

    The Story

    There was a great lesson to learn in tonight’s episode: A group cannot settle on only one target before the immunity challenge. Kim’s five set their sights solely on Tony so when he won they had to scramble for another option. They really should have adopted another line of play: Either work strictly on solidifying the group before the challenge and waiting for the result to choose a target or choose at least two targets before the challenge and have a ready fallback plan if one of them wins immunity. Since the biggest friction was between Ben and Jeremy, Kim should have kept her options secret.

    The Characters

    Kim: I’ve rarely considered the players sent to the Edge of Extinction but I will make an exception with Kim: As far as I can remember, she’s the only one in this cast to have mentioned winning the challenge to return to the game in her last words. Maybe it’s a hint that she will indeed come back into the game.

    Ben: Being compared to a child and someone who doesn’t know how to play the game by a respected player such as Jeremy is a death blow to Ben’s chances of winning this game.

    Denise: She only had a small confessional during the Idol search so we can’t put our money on Denise to win this thing. The way she cut Jeremy, refusing to hear anymore of his arguments before the vote, pretty much told him that she was voting against him. If Jeremy was still open to vote another way, that forced him to vote against Kim. It was a really dumb move from Denise.

    Jeremy: People keep coming after him but they never finish the job. Like we heard, Jeremy is a huge jury threat, someone no one wants to face at the end so why are they still balking at the idea of voting him out? Jeremy’s main chance is that we constantly heard that he wanted to be a leader but we constantly see him playing as a follower. It’s been completely out of necessity instead of choice but, in nature, natural selection doesn’t ask how the adaptation occurred, just that it did.

    Michelle: I definitely see Michelle sitting in the Final 3. In fact, she’ll probably be the one saved by the player who wins the Final 4 Immunity Challenge but what case can she present to the jury? If only Jeremy had played his coin and saved himself with it then she’d be able to brag about it but now? She has nothing.

    Nick: Nick is flowing with the wind but he is in a very comfortable place. His name never comes up in voting discussions so the camouflage is working nicely. If we do see him making moves then he could still steal this victory. His role has been very small up to now but there is still time for a big final push.

    Sarah: She said that her game was sunk when Tony made a move without her and, indeed, it seems that she cannot win without him and she’ll have a lot of trouble convincing the jury to vote for her if she’s with him! It is quite a conundrum for Sarah because she is damned with him and damned without him.

    Tony: As the jury said, Tony is the boss of the situation but his safety relied on Ben and Jeremy voting together against Kim. Even with her gone, can he keep both in line? Or will the two make up and decide they don’t need Tony! It seems he will have to sacrifice one for the other and then he could find himself and Sarah alone fighting the remaining 4 and he’ll have to face those numbers twice because the returning player should be coming back when 5 players are left as they did with the first Edge of Extinction and with the different Redemption islands. If we’ve learned anything from this season is that there are many players wanting to be the boss (the Lion) but that it isn’t easy to remain the boss.

    In a season with multiple leaders, a FOLLOWER is more likely to win and, I hate to say it, but the biggest follower we have is Nick. Not only that but despite his small role and his weak edit, Nick’s “winning quotes” are still making it on the air. Why? Well, maybe it’s because they came true. Suppose Nick sits at Final 3 with Michelle and the player returning from the Edge of Extinction. There would be two schools of thought, I think, on the jury: Some may feel compelled to vote for the person that lived with them for a while and bonded with the other jury members, a totally unfair practice, while others may feel that a player who has been voted out doesn’t deserve to win. Chris won his season despite coming back from the Edge of Extinction but this jury might be more purists of the game.

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    Flowerpower1 3975 desperate attention whore postings
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    36. "RE: Episode 13 - Tony's the Boss"
    Great job, Michel! Always love your take! Great observation with Kim falling at the start of the show! That was great. I have to say that getting pooped on by a bird is indeed good luck! I thought it was great! LOL!

    With these winners I do not see how the EoE returnee could win, even if they make it to F3.

    As for the remaining contenders:

    Regarding Jeremy, yes, his story all season is that he likes to be driving the bus, he likes to be the one in control, and it seems that time and time again, he is thwarted. I do not see him as winner.

    Ben is a lovable guy, I've always enjoyed him and his antics, but he's had serious diarrhea of the mouth. First with Rob, and last with Kim. He blabs everything he knows, and as you pointed out, he's now being referred to as a child. I don't see him winning the game.

    Denise has had one move in the game, and that was getting Sandra out. Time and again she's on the wrong side of the vote, and we really don't hear her comment on the predicament at all. Last Tribal council she refused to listen to anyone, and refused to change her vote and it got her BFF voted out. She's not the greatest this season.

    Nick: He had a good first confessional about the fire tokens, the winner will know how to play them. The editing has been horrible for him. How on earth he can be so solid with the trio of himself, Yul, and Wendell, and then vote Yul off as soon as they are seperated from the rest of their tribe, in favor of Michele? So much for loyalty. Then we saw him ease dropping on all the conversations, as Tony and ben pointed out. He's been a serious follower, and a few times he's commented on who he wants out but it seems they never are the ones to go. We never really heard any strategy talk from Nick either. Toward end game he threatens to make big moves but with 7 left we have not seen it yet. He labeled Jeremy, Tony, and Sarah as the ones that he had to get out, and we see him step off the IC platform which gives Tony the win, but he's okay, as he thinks it will be Jeremy, yet it's not Jeremy. I am highly doubtful that Nick will win this game.

    Sarah is someone that I think could win the game. Up until Tony blindsided her with the Sophie vote, she had a lot of control. AT this point she's Tony's partner. If he is voted out first, she could stand a chance, but I don't see it at this point.

    I think the two players that have the greatest shot to win this game are Tony and Michele. Tony is a dead man walking if he plays his idol, and then he doesn't win immunity. The target on his back is HUGE. Could he pull a Mike Holloway and win? Yes. If anyone could do it, perhaps he could. I loved that getting pooped on by a bird is good luck, cause Tony will need it. We have heard time and again how Tony was going to play a different game this season, the was going to try and work on his social skills, and we see him do it. Then, he tells us he has been patient enough, and now is the time to go full speed ahead, toward the end of the game. And, again, we see him do it. He's playing them all. But, one mistep, and he's toast.

    The only other player that I see has a chance to win, and it would be the beta to Tony's alpha, is Michele. We have heard her strategy from the start as well and he motivation, she needs to prove to everyone that she deserved to win her season, and what a way to prove it than the win the season of winners. She keeps getting left out of the loop, yet she devises a way to work into the group time and again. It was her advantage that Jeremy threatened to play to get himself off the hook at the last TC. She has a LOT of friends on the jury, and I do see a path for her. In the last episode, after she had spoken to Kim re: the plan to get Tony, she noted that they had to take some control and that Tony had to go! When she said that, they zoomed in on her face, which underlined that statement to me. If anyone was going to take out Tony, it would be her....perhaps!

    At least this is how I see it at this point!


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    michel2 4059 desperate attention whore postings
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    37. "RE: Episode 13 - Tony's the Boss"
    I don't have much time to comment on your post, FP but I did enjoy reading it.

    To Note: Leaders: Tony, Sarah, Jeremy.

    Followers: Nick, Michelle and Denise.

    Outsider(?): Ben.

    I don't see a definite role for Ben who his certainly an alpha but he has no alpha-bits!

    Looking at this through Nash Theory, one of Michelle, Nick and Denise are more likely to win but none have a great edit. There are still many cycles though for them to stand out.

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    Chez 775 desperate attention whore postings
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    38. "RE: Episode 13 - Tony's the Boss"
    LAST EDITED ON 05-06-20 AT 08:43 PM (EST)

    "With these winners I do not see how the EoE returnee could win, even if they make it to F3."

    I agree with this comment-for the most part. However, this season we have seen numerous challenges and opportunities on EoE, so much so that you could almost regard EoE as a "parallel" game. One contestant on EoE has stood out as excelling in nearly every one of these challenges, and that is Natalie. She has also amassed quite a hoard of Fire Tokens, which she could use to purchase an Immunity Idol, should she be the person who returns to the game. In addition, I think the II she purchased at the previous battle-back challenge might still be "live". Overall she has quite a number of accomplishments in the game. In my opinion Natalie could possibly be the winner if she can return and can get to the F3.

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    39. "Episodes 14 and 15 - The Final 5"

    Here is what we have written about the Final 5 up to now:

    Ben – E1: Shown as a floater, Ben acted like a snitch, telling everyone what he heard. It kept him safe for now but the group should soon realize that he cannot be trusted.

    E2: Spoke to Michelle about her predicament.

    E3: He wanted to work on his relationships so he helped Denise find the idol but she gave the other half to Adam. In the end, he was saved even if he had very little to do with it. Certainly he talked to Jeremy, Adam and Ethan about keeping Rob and Parvati while voting out Danni but the decision wasn’t his.

    E4: He told us that he couldn’t stand Rob. After the challenge loss, he first settled on Parvati because she was good at getting people to work with her

    E5: Funny that Ben would call Adam a weasel when he was quick to snitch on Danni on the first day of the game. Hearing him fixating on Rob and Parvati being able to tie a noose around his neck and hang him at a time when neither has any power makes me wonder if he doesn’t find himself in a tribe with those two next week and they do send him to the gallows! At that point, Ben looked like an early target.

    E6: As soon as they got to Yara, Ben was the one telling us about his predicament being on a tribe with the two people who blew up his game and lied. He exposed his two options: stick with the guys which was what the “godfather” wanted or he could go with the Dakal women. He’d have to trust his gut.

    E7: In the episode’s first interview, a laughing Ben told us about the last vote. He felt disrespected by Rob so he had to vote him out. He explained that he was out there building relationships to show that he could change his game. He felt close to Sarah and Sophie. Note that we don’t hear Ben truly reflecting on the future. It suggests that he doesn’t have a real future in the game. However, this episode showed us that the game is rigged and Ben is Probst’s favorite winner of all time so this could all be to keep him in view and reveal his game later to satisfy our ring leader.

    E8: After interrogating Adam, Ben decided it was time to go look for the idol.

    E9: He had the confessional right after the announcement that the tribes had merged. For him, this was the start of the real game. “This is when the battle starts and it’s time to find out who is the champion of champions.” Talking to Tyson at the water well, Ben counted all the big names that were gone: Tyson, Rob, Parvati and Sandra. He didn’t want that trend to continue. For him, the battle was going to be “Big Threats versus little threats”. For him, Nick had a good social game but he kept popping in everyone’s conversations. It’s weird that the Wendell vote looked like a defeat for Ben when the ex-marine was gunning for the carpenter from the start. The problem is that he had clearly settled first on Nick then on Adam before being brought back to the Wendell vote. Going with the flow was a theme of this episode but, for Ben, it looked more like being tossed to one side and the other by waves and undercurrents.

    E10: His fortune cookie read: “You will accomplish things that many cannot.” I guess a challenge win or two is in Ben’s future! He didn’t like hearing that Adam was linking him strongly to Sarah. He knew that it was going to be hard to settle on one plan and that it might change all the way to Tribal Council. The editors proved him right because chaos started right after his interview when he confronted Adam. The jury sees a very paranoid Ben and they don’t seem to respect his game very much so I doubt he’d get their votes even if he made it to the end.

    E11: Despite a very little actual role to play in this episode, Ben received a lot of airtime, having the first interview when the tribe returned to camp with their families and then the interview after the challenge. During the pre-merger we gave Adam the role of narrator but we now realize that it was simply because he was in the best place to tell us Ben’s story. We know Ben is Probst’s favorite but does this explain such a big edit?

    E12: : I guess he forgot to stay awake 24 hours for 39 days straight because he was sleeping when Tony found his idol. It was interesting to see Jeremy staring straight at him while the votes were read. That stare meant; you thought you had me but I got you.

    E13: Being compared to a child and someone who doesn’t know how to play the game by a respected player such as Jeremy is a death blow to Ben’s chances of winning this game.

    Denise – E1: Paired with Adam, she was shown making a rookie mistake so it will be hard for (her) to re-establish (her) position in the game

    E2: She didn’t play a role in this episode

    E3: After finding the idol, she told Ben that she trusted Adam so they thought of using the idol to bring him in. Why did Denise even think of giving half of the idol to Parvati. Adam quickly shot down that idea.

    E4: The episode started with Denise feeling in a good spot because not only did she receive Danni’s Fire Token but Adam gave her the other half of her immunity Idol meaning she can now use its full power. She felt close to Adam and was ready to go after Rob, Parvati and Ethan. After the loss, Denise was still gunning for Parvati. That changed when she heard that Adam had told the plan to Rob.

    E5: Aside from seeing her fail during the challenge, we didn’t get anything from Denise so it’s probable that her earlier presence was simply due to events that had to be shown and that she isn’t much of a factor down the road. That qualified her for the role of TOURIST in this episode.

    E6: Still seen as a Tourist; She got the feeling that Kim wasn’t really with Tony and Sandra and she got the chance to tell us about it.

    E7: She was worried about the Council. She didn’t want to burn an idol that she wanted to keep for later. So she approached Sandra who she felt was very honest and direct. She was ready to write Jeremy’s name if it meant staying safe. She accepted Sandra’s deal: Two Fire Tokens for an idol and Denise could vote either of the two guys as long as she didn’t touch Sandra or Kim. Even if she already had an idol, Denise felt like she could have her first ever game-changing move. She was enjoying her new power. Like all power, I think this corrupted Denise’s judgment. Granted, eliminating Sandra meant she didn’t have to give away her second Fire Token but Tony was the right move for her here. Sandra was willing to play with her and Denise even said she felt like Sandra was an honest person. Tony was gunning for Denise and we all know he isn’t honest so why did Denise choose Sandra? That is totally inexplicable unless that was how Probst’s script read.

    E8: All the future jurors got to hear how Denise screwed the Queen. Sandra’s last words to the tribe were “Get Denise for me” but can they? Denise is now part of a solid three with Jeremy and Kim; that could lead them far.

    E9: She received the Title of “Queen Slayer” from the group after she told them about her exploit. However, Denise’s exploits put an immediate target on her back. She was the talk of the group before she won immunity. When Jeremy brought up Adam’s name, Denise had very little reaction; she’d do it, she told Jeremy. To us, she said her alliance with Adam was a day 1 alliance but maybe not a Day 39 alliance. Despite all that talk of being good to cut Adam, in the end she voted against Wendell. Presented like this, the editors showed that she didn’t deserve credit for Wendell’s elimination. Wendell said she was playing a winner’s game much like Russell Swann had said in the Philippines. People missed their chance to vote her out back then, will the same happen here? It is a bit early though to need to win your way to the end. The target won’t diminish but the necklace will not always be as easy to win.

    E10: No one chose her for the Reward Challenge and she wasn’t much part of the group’s discussion at the end. The only time we noticed her was when she told Kim she wanted to go after Sarah. If word gets back to the policewoman, things could get dicey for Denise.

    E11: The events should have put her in a central role but we heard very little from her. The story isn’t being told from her perspective at all so we cannot see her as a contender.

    E12: As much as she tries, she’s never in the loop for very long. She thought it was time to cut Jeremy but where can she go without him?

    E13: She only had a small confessional during the Idol search so we can’t put our money on Denise to win this thing. The way she cut Jeremy, refusing to hear anymore of his arguments before the vote, pretty much told him that she was voting against him. If Jeremy was still open to vote another way, that forced him to vote against Kim. It was a really dumb move from Denise.

    Michelle – E1: She said...her head was spinning and she never established a foothold in the game.

    E2: She got a chance to explain her feelings about being left out of the first vote. The new dynamics could put enormous weight on her next vote.

    E3: She was only involved in the discussion right before Tribal Council about going with the easy vote against Danni or the big move for Parvati.

    E4: While Ben wanted to go after Rob, Michelle said that they’d be better off going for Parvati and maybe get Rob to side with them afterwards because he wouldn’t have any other choices. After that brutal challenge loss, with everyone in camp, it was first Boston Rob and then Michelle who told us about the standoff in the tribe; no one wanted to go off because no one wanted to become a target. It was during her talk with Jeremy that Michelle turned the vote on Ethan. Jeremy liked the idea of weakening Rob. For her, the vote against Ethan instead f Parvati was mostly to give Adam a taste of his own medicine. (Note that Michelle and Jeremy, the two that had been left out of the first vote, are now the ones leaving others out of the loop! We’ve rarely seen that happen so quickly especially without a tribe swap.) She informed Denise and Ben of the situation and kept the power in her and Jeremy’s hands. Michelle told us she felt pressure coming into this season because she knows many viewers don’t give her credit for winning on her first try. (Well! It isn’t called Survivor Sôh Rông for nothing !) This episode was a great one for Michelle’s chances.

    E5: We saw Michelle listening to Adam’s apology and next we saw her playing with Boston Rob, talking about their experiences in the game. She said her win was very controversial to which Rob replied: “If you win; you win. The end!” That comment made her laugh. Then, after making the shot, Rob said these words to Michelle: “Good Game!” It was just a comment after a game of “hang-the-roll-of-tape-on-the-peg” but what if that’s an indication of how Rob will vote in the end? I think he will write Michelle’s name and think “Good Game”. Now will his vote be enough for her to win?

    E6: We heard the story of the Michelle-Wendell romance mostly through her words and she said he broke her heart so it seems the editors are taking her side which is good for her the long-run. She vowed not to let him burn her in the game the way he burned her while they were dating and that she’d be the one to take him out of the game if it becomes necessary. That quote is something to remember because it mentioned the 2 million dollars.

    E7: While she knew Nick was Parvati’s only option, Michelle understood that it wouldn’t work. That sucked, she said. Since she felt Parvati was about to leave, she tried to find an angle that would benefit her own game. She talked to Wendell about voting with Parvati just to get her Fire Token but Wendell didn’t like that idea. Michelle got pissed when she realized that Wendell didn’t trust her. He had burned her when they were dating and he was doing it again. Why would she continue to give when all he’s always taking, she wondered? It would be a cruel editing decision to have Michelle hearing her talk about all the distress Wendell caused her if he was going to outlast her so I think Michelle will be the one going further in the game. Since it seems that Wendell is in for a while then that augurs well for Michelle. Will she have the résumé to convince the jury that she deserves the Title of Sole Survivor? She’d get Rob’s vote and maybe Parvati but would others follow? She’ll need to do something to stand out.

    E8: I think it’s important to note that the episode started with Parvati telling the others on the Edge of Extinction that, in her former tribe, Michelle was now alone against the 3 guy. That can only enhance the viewers’ respect for the predicament facing the Kâoh Rông winner. In Michelle’s first interview, we learned that she gave one of Parvati’s Fire token to Wendell as a gesture of good-will but that she doesn’t plan to move forward in the game with him. After the challenge loss, we saw a Praying Mantis attacking a smaller insect and devouring it. Yul was the prey that was about to be killed and we know that it is the female Mantis that sometimes practices cannibalism so the editors were giving credit to Michelle for the big kill. While we guessed some winners because of Animal Imagery (the yellow frog for Aras, the Tarsier for Cochran as examples) we must remember that Fairplay in Pearl Islands was symbolized by a snake who slowly ate a huge chameleon all through the episode where Rupert was eliminated (the chameleon, with ever changing colors, was even representing Rupert’s multi-colored tie-dye shirt!!) so it isn’t necessarily a clue that Michelle is going to win but it is something.

    The way Michelle went around the group during the discussion about the vote was admirable. While many outsiders, when trying to join a group, make the fatal mistake of naming their target, Michelle listened to everyone’s opinion: Her conversation with Nick was perfect modus operandi for the game of Survivor. “I’m open to anything” she told him so he forged ahead with his plan to go after Yul. Only then did she choose which side to pick, solidifying the group around her by clearly explaining why it had to be Yul. She had the last interview of the evening and this time she wasn’t saying that she wanted to prove she deserved her first win but that is was proving she deserves to win it this time just like she deserved it the last time. Note that, during the challenge, Michelle fell down on the balance beam even before the tribe got their disc. That caused them more than a second delay but, even though they lost by less than a second, the blame was put all on Wendell who, supposedly, lost time by trash talking with Jeff. The main defect of Michelle’s story is that it’s all focused on Wendell. She even said that she didn’t want to move forward with him but that is exactly what she chose to do. Still, up to now, she is proving to be a strong player so we must keep her in contention.

    E9: Besides comforting Sophie before the challenge and then needing comfort herself after falling off first, Michelle didn’t play a role in this episode. She was going to outlast Wendell but she received absolutely no credit for doing so. At the end of Tribal Council, the cameras clearly showed us that she had been left out of the loop. A quiet showing in the merger episode is rarely a good sign for a player’s future but Michelle is certainly in a better situation with Wendell out of the game.

    E10: In the first interview of the evening, Michelle told us that she was upset at being left out of the loop and that she would have voted against Wendell if she had been informed. To Nick, she said she hated all these people. Michelle read her two fortune cookies and their message (“As the purse is emptied, the heart is filled” and “Don’t be afraid to take that big step”) inspired her next decision: From Parvati, she received a 50:50 chance at safety; a coin that she’d have to flip and see if it lands on the “Safe” or “Not Safe” side. She took the chance and bought it for 4 Fire Tokens. This was a better episode for Michelle but her name is still mentioned as an outsider. The 50/50 coin was rather expensive so let’s hope she gets her money’s worth.

    E11: While she wasn’t part of Sophie’s discussion group, I believe Michelle was with the group of five all along. She could then have acted as an agent double, stealing Kim’s pitch and relaying it to Sophie’s team. The editors even played into it, not showing us who Michelle talked with during the first phase of scrambling. I don’t think it was by happenstance that Michelle stood away from the other three and looked directly at the group of five when they broke huddle as we clearly see here: I think there was a quick, silent exchange of information and that Sophie and her group knew Michelle was going to vote against Tyson.

    E12: Parading in front of the shelter looked like an indication of what will happen to Michelle at the end; she’ll parade in front of the jury and, once again, it will only be for show, not for dough.

    E13: I definitely see Michelle sitting in the Final 3. In fact, she’ll probably be the one saved by the player who wins the Final 4 Immunity Challenge but what case can she present to the jury? If only Jeremy had played his coin and saved himself with it then she’d be able to brag about it but now? She has nothing.

    Sarah – E1: Sarah was shown as a strong person, one of the MVPs of their first Immunity win.

    E2: She was recruited to join Yul’s alliance.

    E3: She was happy that Tony revived the “Cops-R-Us” alliance for all the good that did her the first time!

    E4: Receiving the clue from Natalie, Sarah realized the perils of her mission if she wanted to get a “steal-a-vote” advantage. (Did Natalie remember that Sarah had benefitted from a “steal-a-vote” advantage before? If that guided her choice well we have to admit Natalie is a very smart player) Like a police officer on the job, she needed back-up so she got her partner, Tony, to help her out. What ensued was the funniest moment of the episode where Tony covered Sarah’s shiny forehead with some dirt. (How perfect that this scene happened on Ash Wednesday! Well, we have to admit that we cannot be sure of the time reference, Survivor being famous for showing scenes out of their actual time frame, it worked very well.) Even if Ethan took a long time before going to bed and that Ben was a light sleeper, Sarah accomplished her mission. With Tony, she gave us the best scene of the episode and she’s got a lot of momentum going into the second quarter of the game. Her main problem is the trust she’s giving to Tony. Which one will betray the other this time?

    E5: She became a Contender in this episode: She started by telling us she was having more fun than ever before (smelling Tyson’s breath is her idea of fun?!) She admitted to the bond she had with Tyson even if no one else trusted him. She also had to go against her preferred outcome and voted against Tyson. She spoke during Tribal Council but it was nothing noteworthy.

    E6: After the scene with Yul that confirmed the strength of their bond, Sarah was quick to tell us that she didn’t want to swap. She told us that her advantage could save her and Sophie for one vote but she preferred not using it this early. Talking about the Ethan vote showed Sarah all the tension between the three guys. We also heard her saying that she didn’t like the negative energy that Rob brought to camp. She wasn’t going to let Rob act as a baby-sitter, confining her to a playpen.

    E7: We didn’t hear from Sarah in this episode which cannot be a good sign for her chances.

    E8: She knew where the idol was but she was pissed that Adam thought she had one because that rumor could put a target on her back. She told Adam he could look in her bag.

    E9: She gave us an interview just as the group sat down to the feast. She told us it felt good being one of the 12 greats. She then asked what happened with Sandra so Denise explained the whole deal. We still see that Sarah has a role to play in the outcome of the season but she still too much in the background for becoming the focus of that story.

    E10: She gave her seat at the reward feast to the birthday boy, Nick. She claimed it wasn’t a strategic decision, that it was just a way to show that they could be kind to each other. Everything is strategic in this game. Adam’s interview right after the challenge had already made the point to the viewers. Right after hearing Tony’s interview about the “Barbaric Survivor” we heard Jeremy, Denise and Adam agreeing that it was a strategic move. Will this move cost Sarah in the end? The players are well aware that she is a dangerous player so her time could be coming soon.

    E11: In this joyous episode there was a meanness associated with Sarah’s presentation that makes me think she will not be our winner. Tony was much more diplomatic than her and that is saying a lot. Also, it seems evident that Sophie is the person in charge in this couple. To prove that, we just have to look at the last interview of the episode where it was Sophie who talked about using Sarah’s steal-a-vote advantage, hoping that she could convince Sarah to use it.

    E12: She was burned by her partner and will certainly seek revenge but I have a feeling she’ll have to move back in line. In Cagayan, Trish looked like she suffered from the Stockholm Syndrome, staying with Tony even after his repeated betrayals and while I don’t think Sarah is quite as gullible, she’ll realize she doesn’t have much of a shot without Tony.

    E13: She said that her game was sunk when Tony made a move without her and, indeed, it seems that she cannot win without him and she’ll have a lot of trouble convincing the jury to vote for her if she’s with him! It is quite a conundrum for Sarah because she is damned with him and damned without him.

    Tony – E1: Tony was aware of the threat he represents and tried to downplay it.

    E2: Tony was left out of Yul’s alliance and it seems nobody needs him.

    E3: Instead of finding idols and building spy shacks, it seems that Tony is intent on being the tribe’s provider. His ladder nearly killed him but he did get fruits. Like Tyson said however, why is this guy still alive? Tony will have a hard time navigating his way to the end. At least he did provide...laughter!

    E4: Waking up early, Tony was the first to see that Sandra’s trap had worked; a small shark was trapped in the net. Tony took it out but it nearly bit him. Tony made everyone laugh. Tony has a rare quality of making the game fun to watch. I think only Boston Rob has as much fun playing this game as this member of “Cops-R-Us”.

    E5: He agreed with Tyson’s plan of going after the unconnected players, even telling us that Nick was his first choice. He discussed the idea with Sarah and Sandra but, for some unseen reason, he sided against Tyson, something that can’t be good for Tony in the long run.

    E6: His story of Lions and Hyenas only reinforced the idea that Tony is in over his head in this game. (Where is Trish when he needs her?!) Maybe he should have tried solidifying his relationship with Kim BEFORE the swap! He continues to be one of the luckiest players ever because Dakal was dead last in the challenge and it was Sandra and Jeremy who saved his #####. Had Dakal gone to TC it’s fairly certain that Jeremy would have used his advantage to skip the Council, Sandra would have played her idol because it was expiring and that would have practically forced Denise and Kim into playing theirs leaving Tony as the automatic vote! He didn’t even know how close he came from execution.

    E7: Tony’s paranoia was quick to resurface after the challenge loss. He felt like Sandra and Kim were about to flip on him or that Jeremy and Denise had an idol. So he built a new spy-shack. It proved to be useless because everyone expected that he’d be hiding near the water well. To all who said Tony was a great player this episode proved once again that he’s an imbecile. The second luckiest winner ever should have been voted out after such an idiotic game play but Denise went with the script instead.

    E8: Once again, Tony was used for comic relief instead of being presented like a possible winner. The main Dakal scene of the episode showed Tony running “like an old man” with Jeremy, Kim and Denise laughing at him. Despite that, Tony felt comfortable with Kim and Jeremy. He also liked knowing that Denise had become a big target.

    E9: He had the interview that came just as the tribe arrived to their new residence. It was only to tell us that the new Menu was up but that the prices had risen so he couldn’t buy a thing with his lone token. (Tony seems to miss the fact that a group of players could pool their money together and buy an item for their own use. Let say a group of five takes over at Final 9 and they buy a tarp or a bag of rice and keep it to themselves! It would be a nice way to solidify an alliance.) At least the feast was free and Tony loved that! We then saw Ben giving Tony a big hug (How significant will that be? It was the first hug shown.) After hearing Ben’s opinion of the game, Tony felt it was music to his ears. For him, people like Nick, Wendell, Adam and Michelle, all good players, he conceded, but with low profiles, the sleepers Ben called them, these players had to be taken out first. After the challenge, Tony had a talk with Ben and Jeremy. They wanted to take out Nick. Tony called him a scavenger. Tony was only used to narrate the new situation. Tony the Lion (shouldn’t he have chosen the Tiger instead!) was turned into a scavenger himself.

    E10: Once more, Tony acted like a Survivor “know-it-all” with Nick and Michelle, telling them that they couldn’t act like that. His next tutorial came after the reward challenge when he told Sarah that she shouldn’t have given up her reward. In interview, he told us that a decision like the one made by Sarah can be very costly. A Survivor player needed to be barbaric, not emotional and humane. After the immunity challenge, Tony reminded us of his plan to target the Hyenas and he was about to get one. Even at Tribal Council, Tony had to tell Adam how the game is played: “We don’t say the name out loud; we go up there and vote.” Tony the “know-it-all” is a new role for our cop and his advices have been correct up to now. However, I think Tony should concentrate more on his own game than in helping the others.

    E11: He continues to have fun and our newly appointed “Survivor savant” Tony could very well take his new approach all the way to the end but, like Sarah said: I think it will end badly for him.

    E12: Jeremy said during Tribal Council that it is all a question of timing and we have to wonder if Tony acted too early. Normally, you want to blindside your allies ONE move before they blindside you and this looked like 3 or 4 moves too early. It would be fairly easy for Jeremy, Kim, Denise, Nick and Michelle to patch things up, leaving Tony high and dry but this episode was “The Tony Show” so I have to think that, having revealed their star to the audience, the editors are going to continue the build up to his coronation. Could Tony be the Sole Survivor? It certainly looks possible now.

    E13: As the jury said, Tony is the boss of the situation but his safety relied on Ben and Jeremy voting together against Kim. Even with her gone, can he keep both in line? Or will the two make up and decide they don’t need Tony! It seems he will have to sacrifice one for the other and then he could find himself and Sarah alone fighting the remaining 4 and he’ll have to face those numbers twice because the returning player should be coming back when 5 players are left as they did with the first Edge of Extinction and with the different Redemption islands. If we’ve learned anything from this season is that there are many players wanting to be the boss (the Lion) but that it isn’t easy to remain the boss.

    So we enter the penultimate week with 2 players firmly in the “Can’t Win” category: Denise and Ben. Both their edits have been terrible and the editors gave them what we saw as “Kiss-of-Death” moments.

    Sarah has a very up and down story; she was completely overshadowed by Sophie when the two women were together and now she stands in Tony’s shadows so I have to put her chances in question.

    For most of the season, we saw Tony as “Comic Relief” which was certainly not a winner’s role when Survivor was investing in creating the “Story of the Season” but is that role still in a dead-end now that Probst is in charge? I’m sure many viewers would be satisfied seeing him win and he has brought new elements to his previous character, mainly “Tony the Know-it-All” but he was also the “Old man” who couldn’t run, the spy who had no one coming by his spy shack.

    We got to know her much better than during her first run. She won that because she had stayed under-the-radar to the players but, unfortunately also to the viewers. We’ve had varied story lines for Michelle and we have even had solid hints that she’ll make the Final 3 but will she get the vote?

    By the way, at the end of the first cycle, we had proof of something posters had been claiming for decades and that Probst had denied: We knew he looked at the votes before reading them and knew exactly what was about to unfold and here we saw it. Setting the scene; Michelle had 2 votes that had been cancelled, Ben had 2 votes, Jeremy had 2 votes and there was 1 vote left. That last vote could have been against Michelle, Tony or Sarah leaving a 2-2 tie between Jeremy and Ben but, before opening the parchment, Jiffy had already said the words: “15th person...” so he knew it wasn’t Michelle, Tony or Sarah!

    Let’s look at the Characters in Episodes 14 and 15

    In order of appearance, we had

    Michelle: In the first confessional of the evening she talked about the disastrous Tribal Council as usual for her; Jeremy didn’t play the advantage she had given him and now everyone knows she has it. She felt like she had brought a butter knife to a gun fight. Besides the fact that Nick won immunity, saving his skin in much the same way Michelle would do later; we had the scene where everyone consoled Michelle for finishing last. These players like the young one! I thought it was out of character to linger so much on her pain unless the editors wanted us to feel it also. Michelle didn’t like Ben’s tactic of pitting her against Jeremy. Her best case scenario was Ben leaving; the worst case was Jeremy leaving. Well, I’d say her worst case scenario was her own elimination but she survived!

    Taking a break away from the others, Michelle had very strong words for Nick when he joined her: “I was wondering if you’d have the balls to come talk to me.” She told us that she knew she was on the bottom with Nick who was too naive to see it. Her back was against the wall and she plays her best in that situation. The next morning, she woke up angry because she had no one to trust. Talking to Sarah, she said she was next to go. Sarah, very unconvincingly, tried to say she was not going next. Saying it’s one thing to get to the end, it was quite another to win, she threw a Hail Mary to Sarah saying that she wouldn’t beat Tony. She was very happy to learn of Nick’s advantage and was ready to give him the 2 extra tokens he needed even if she was in this dire situation because of him. Nick said that this advantage was going to go a long way in deciding who wins the game; we know it didn’t help him but it certainly helped Michelle so does that put her in orbit to win this game? After winning the challenge Michelle did a good imitation of another Michelle; Michelle Jenneke that is, the Australian hurdler whose warm-up dance went viral years ago! When she got the necklace from Jeff she quickly noticed that no one was clapping, a sure sign that they wanted to vote her out. She was all smiles in her post-challenge interview. She was receptive to Tony’s plan against Denise but she didn’t know if they could get enough people on board with this plan.

    Denise: At the start of day 30 Denise explained that when she had told Jeff she was done, she didn’t mean done with the game but done with the scrambling. (Isn’t that the game?) Denise had the interview after the first IC and it was strange to hear her parroting the line that Nick was supposed to be voted out. From what we saw, Neither Tony, Ben or Sarah had approached with that plan. She asked: “I wonder what Plan B is going to be?” (That sure paints her as a follower, not a decider)

    Michelle’s challenge win meant Plan B for Denise. She can’t even see that she is the alliance’s enabler, just a vote for them to use until they discard her. Denise then chose a weird strategy; saying she knew she was on the block, she pleaded to be sent to the Edge of Extinction with a full belly.

    Tony: Another chink in Tony’s armor came from Jeremy when he said that he had to go back to school because « 9 days are not 2 weeks ». Although he did save face when he replied that he works smart instead of hard. For Tony, only the Tribal Council days count as work, the rest of the time he’s on vacation. Anyway, we learned that Tony’s plan was to save Jeremy to keep the Hyenas at bay. Talking to Sarah, he realized this was their tie-breaking season. Tony was in a good position: Jeremy needed him to get Ben and Ben needed him to get Jeremy. His plan was to stay strong with Ben. Wasn’t that more for Sarah’s benefit though? When Jeremy saw he was voted out, he asked who did it and when Tony confessed he said: “Bad move dude”. That sounded like an omen!

    A jubilant Tony commented on his Tribal Council: “It went exactly as planned”, he said. The entire game, he said, he had been on the right side of the votes. He compared himself to Michelle who had been on the outside of every vote and he felt she had to go next. In other seasons, she would be seen as a goat and she would be carried to the end but in this “Super Bowl” season of Survivor. Careful Tony, judging by the amount of people who have bequeathed their Fire Tokens to Michelle, she has many friends on the jury. Some (many?) will say that she had to work much harder to survive than someone who had an alliance around him all the time. That could be worth a lot of votes. For a moment, tony seemed to consider making a move against Ben because he didn’t want to lose the Fire Challenge to the ex-soldier. That’s when he went back to his spy nest and he heard Denise plotting with Ben and Sarah to get rid of Tony.

    Sarah: She informed us that she was locked in with Ben and Tony for the Final Three. The problem she faced was that Ben wanted Jeremy out which, if it happened, would leave the 2 cops as sitting ducks. Sarah preferred taking out Nick but she wanted Ben to arrive to that decision on his own. Sarah told us she didn’t trust Nick to vote against Jeremy.

    Sarah, who looked nothing like a smart player in her discussion with Michelle, told everyone that the Jersey girl was trying to turn everyone against Tony. Michelle needs to go, said Sarah in confessional. Sarah was faced with two options: Nick or Denise. She realized that she and Tony were the deciding vote.

    Ben: When Sarah talked about Ben wanting Jeremy out, we had a spectacular image of Ben caught in the Fog of War, being completely engulfed in the smoke from the camp fire. The image was clear: Ben cannot see the game clearly. After talking to Sarah, Ben “decided” to target Nick. He did all on his own! After Nick’s win, Ben was in rethink mode. He didn’t like hearing that Denise was the first alternative. He wanted to pit Jeremy against Michelle by first telling Jeremy to get the 50/50 coin and then telling Michelle that Jeremy would ask her for it but she shouldn’t give it. The two saw right through his half-baked scheme.

    After TC, Ben said it was intense; “like an old Western”, he called it. He felt fantastic after winning his duel. Ben was given the challenge disadvantage by Nick. After the challenge, he tried to get the host to reveal the source but Jeff brushed him off. There is a HUGE problem with keeping this secret is that the players can now think it came from the jury on Edge of Extinction. Sure it protected Nick from being seen as guilty but what good did that do him? On the other hand, the players will think Ben is unpopular with the jury therefore a good choice to bring to the end. Contrary to what Jeff said, there were still THREE blocks left on Ben’s table. Ben wanted to vote out Nick but they told him that Denise was the target.

    So, now that we are heading to the Finale, there are really only 2 questions left to answer:

    1- Who will come back from the Edge of Extinction: While Natalie has all those advantages and often spoke of coming back, as soon as I heard Kim’s final words on the day of her elimination, I’ve felt that she’d be coming back so I’ll go with Kim.

    2- Who wins the War: Here, I see two possibilities:

    A) The Player that has Game: That would be Tony of course. He’s dominated the end game because, once more, he’s benefitted from loyal-to-a-fault allies. His move against Sophie should have told everyone not to play with Tony but he’s only grown stronger since.

    B) The Player that has the edit: I’ve had trouble following the overall story because it was so fragmented but if we look at the overall season, there is no doubt that extra-special care has been given to Michelle. How can she get to the end? Well, the returning player can provide assistance and act as a shield so maybe that’s good for a Tribal Council or two then maybe someone will misjudge her connection to the jury. Tony saw her as a goat but we saw many players given her hugs of comfort and tokens. The people on the jury like Michelle. We also had the scene where Rob told her “Good Game” which could be the key hint of the season.

    I’m not sure of the outcome but I must say that, besides Natalie whose Edge of Extinction dominance has been quite a revelation, Michelle has been the freshest character of the season.


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    40. "RE: Episodes 14 and 15 - The Final 5"
    Of course Jeff sees the votes before he reads them. The votes are arranged to provide the most dramatic effect. You think after all the seasons the way the votes were read, they ended up that way luckily every time. I don't think so.
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    41. "RE: Episodes 14 and 15 - The Final 5"
    Of course the votes are arranged for dramatic effect but Jiffy always claimed that HE didn't see them in advance, meaning someone else was in charge of the arrangement. This episode showed that he definitely knew what was on that last parchement.
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    42. "RE: Episodes 14 and 15 - The Final 5"
    Back in 2014 Jeff explained to EW Dalton Ross how he orders the votes for Tribal Council but I remember years before that in one of those Q&A shows where Jeff answered a question on this and said of course I order the votes for the most dramatic effect. I can't find that quote but I do remember Jeff saying that. Plus since the beginning he only reads enough votes so he has to know that the rest of the votes are for the person getting voted out.

    'Survivor' host Jeff Probst reveals how he orders the votes at Tribal Council
    By Dalton Ross Updated November 27, 2014 at 12:00 PM EST
    http://ew.com/article/2014/11/27/survivor-jeff-probst-san-juan-del-sur-episode-10/

    Every week, host Jeff Probst will answer a few questions about the latest episode of ‘Survivor: San Juan del Sur — Blood vs. Water.’

    ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY: So no hidden immunity idols played all season, and then all of a sudden it starts raining idols with both Jon and Keith using them — and they were both saved as a result. By the way the votes were stacked, you must have at least guessed that they might play them, but what were you thinking was going to go down with the idols as you walked the votes back to reveal them? And did Natalie just save Jon’s butt in this game by telling him to use his?

    JEFF PROBST: Okay, so here’s the truth. Any time someone who I know has an idol also receives votes, I have to be prepared for them to play the idol. So I stack the votes prepared for them to play the idol, as that is the assumption I always make. If they play the idol, I read the votes as read and we usually eliminate their votes off the top so we can delay the reveal of who is going home. If they don’t play the idol, then I have to pull the votes out in an order different from the way they are stacked. In this case it was a bit more complicated because we had two potential idols that might or might not be played. It’s definitely the only time I am ever slightly stressed about reading the votes simply because I don’t want to mess up the drama. In the end, from a game point of view, it doesn’t matter how you reveal them — an idol negates votes. We just want to present them in the most dramatic fashion, so we pay close attention and try to think through every scenario. And yes, I think Natalie made a huge move in the game. She not only saved Jon, she may have ultimately saved herself. That could have been a game changing tribal council.

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    43. "RE: Episodes 14 and 15 - The Final 5"
    Thanks for that Sheldor.
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    44. "RE: Episodes 14 and 15 - The Final 5"
    Michel~ As always a great read and I am so so happy that you had a thread up and running to note the editing. I have to agree with your assessment. I think if Tony, EoE person, who I really have seen as Natalie, and Michele are all in the finals, then I see it between Tony and Michele. I just think that in a season of Lions vs Hyenas, that the king lion will win.

    But, if he is taken out prior to F3, then yes. A Michele could indeed win! I think alot of the comments, like the one that Jeremy said to Tony as he left TC, is all there to place doubt on to Tony's win. As we all know that the editors indeed like to cast some doubt. But, regardless, I don't rate this season at the top, for me there was just not enough content to make valid hypotheses through most of the season. I think they could have extended the time. But, there is always next season to look forward to!

    Thank you so much for everything, always!

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    45. "RE: Episodes 14 and 15 - The Final 5"
    Flower thank you for all you have contributed. You put a lot of work into this also. I'm sure I'm not at the top of your fan list because I see in your avatar you have a pic of Rob and Amber who I despise and say openly lol. I would also like to thank Michel and Aruba for their work. I don't watch as much anymore because I think the game has gone way downhill so I'm able to catch up here. I agree Flower that this season is not at the top. Nowhere near. Purple Rock Podcast has a pretty good list of ranking the seasons. This won't even crack the top 10. I would put it in the middle around 20th best.
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    46. "sj007....."
    Thank you, 007! Trust me, if you still like to jump in here and comment every now and then , YOU ARE at the top of my fan list! I guess I just liked the OG, the old schoolers. All these advantages, disadvantages have really turned this game into more luck than skill, and that's a bummer!

    Thanks for contributing 007! And, thank you, michel! This season I felt the editing was right on track throughout most of the game. Early on, Tony got a lot of strategic confessionals. I think I recall that he even had the first confessional of the show! The editing chose to follow him closely. I would say it did similarly to Sarah and Michele as well, but in a toned down fashion. In retrospect it's easy to see that this season was Tony's story.

    We should have known that someone like Tony had won simply by the way Jiffy seemed so happy with this season. Would he have been so tickled with a Michele win? I have to say that I do see Michele as a goat. She was out of the loop on the vote on the very first episode. Time and time again she had no idea what was really going on. She had befriended and aligned with all the people that were targets, that's why they gave her their coins on the way out. At the end, she had the great fortune for getting someone she could play with in Natalie. She did win two immunities when she needed them, have to give her credit for those! I also have to question how many people she had a pre-game pact with....?

    Natalie made some friends on Edge, but could she really have won this game after being voted out on Day 3? No matter how much of a beast she was, I just don't know. Her biggest mistake was not going against Tony in fire making. But, even then, if she had defeated Tony, Sarah would have been there and I think she had enough of a resume to win as well. Food for thought!


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    47. "FP:"
    I don't see Michele as a goat really because I think her Survival journey was much more difficult than Tony's. Considering Rob's final words, I don't think the jury disliked her either but they were obnubilated by the two huge characters confronting her.

    In a season of returning players it's always the one with the most friends that wins so, for me, it's much more impressive to get to the end when you have less of them.

    By the way, Michelle was the only one in the cast that has yet to see her torch snuffed by Jeff. I think that's something. Only 2 other women can claim that they played their first two seasons without getting voted out. One is fairly easy to name but can you name them both?

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    48. "RE: FP:"
    Sandra is one. Jenna Morasca is the other.
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    49. "RE: FP:"
    Jenna Morasca quit on Day 9 of All-Star so technically her torch wasn't snuffed at TC but she didn't make it to the end of the game. I meant that Michelle was only the 3rd woman to make it twice to the end on her first 2 games without getting her torch snuffed.
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    05-17-20, 01:31 PM (EST)
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    50. "RE: FP:"
    Sandra and Amanda are the other two.
    S07-1st/S20-1st Sandra
    S15-3rd/S16-2nd Amanda
    S32-1st/S40-3rd Michele

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    54. "Got It!"
    .
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    51. "Another trivia question..."
    "Only 2 other women can claim that they played their first two seasons without getting voted out. One is fairly easy to name but can you name them both?"

    That was a fun question (my answer above)!

    How about this one...

    What Three Players voted for the Same Player to Win Twice?

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    52. "RE: Another trivia question..."
    LAST EDITED ON 05-17-20 AT 02:01 PM (EST)

    Are you talking about voting twice for either Tony or Sandra to win? Or could this include someone who voted for Sandra once and voted for Tony once?

    Sarah would be one (2x voting for Tony)
    Rupert would be one, I'd think (2x voting for Sandra)
    I also think Tyson was on the HvV jury - if so, I would assume he voted for Sandra and also for Tony in Winners at War.

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    53. "RE: Another trivia question..."
    Pepe, you have the first two but I think the 3rd would be Jeremy who voted for Natalie twice even if she didn't win.


    (I don't believe Tyson made jury on HvV.)

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    55. "RE: Another trivia question..."
    LAST EDITED ON 05-17-20 AT 04:08 PM (EST)

    Yeah, you're right - I just checked and Tyson didn't make the jury in HvV. So, scratch him.

    Sheldor may need to clear up what he meant with his wording as it sounded to me like he meant "voting for the winner" (as in Sarah for Tony) though you might be right if he didn't actually mean a winning vote (i.e. Natalie didn't win WaW).

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    56. "RE: Another trivia question..."
    You guys should have more trivia questions like that. More interesting than some of the other stuff. I agree Flower I think the old school players are much more skilled than the new school. With all the stupid twists and idols luck plays a lot more important role than skill. Sad.
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    57. "RE: Another trivia question..."
    Sorry Pepe that I haven't been online here.

    Michel is correct in what I meant: "Pepe, you have the first two but I think the 3rd would be Jeremy who voted for Natalie twice even if she didn't win."

    Jeremy was the hard one since he Voted for Natalie to Win Twice but she only Won one of those times (San Juan del Sur).

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