LAST EDITED ON 10-16-01 AT 09:06 PM (EST)
Final Warning: Contains intense speculation and may contain spoilers of the season finale of Love Cruise... do not continue to read if you want to be surprised by the final outcome.
Okay, before I begin, I've said for a while that Anthony, Mike, and Toni must be in the finals with Toni and either Mike or Anthony as the winning couple...
Well, I was wrong... DEAD WRONG!!!
I also made some predictions immediately after watching Ep6 (before I had time to let things digest)... ignore those, too...
I'll explain later...
Face time is crucial in deciding who will eventually win the show. There is no way that the producers would have someone win that has had little face time. We've seen that there have been cameras on loser island... if someone from loser island were going to come back to win, they would have showed more footage of the island before now. The only person that we've really seen from the island is Lisa (and she was only sorta featured... probably because she's much less emotional than the rest of the losers, and had a decent interview that they could use).
Okay... let's take a look at the vidcaps that we're given of the finale:
Vidcaps 1 through 6 are the continuation of the "bug-eyed" fight that was "To be continued" at the end of last week's episode.
Vipcaps 7-9 are clearly from the jury. Anthony is on the jury (and is therefore NOT in the finals).
Anthony is asking Melissa questions... notice that for a split second (Vidcap #9) Darin leans into the shot (something that I think slipped by the editors, cause it's very quick!!!)
Okay... so that tells us what happens with one of the switch cards... Darin chooses not to use his (duh!!!) and takes Melissa to the finals.
But what about Jeanette... if you study the vidcaps, there are NO vidcaps of Jeanette... so what did she choose to do???
Well, before we look at this, let's think about Justin's statement that a third couple will be added to the finals.
I have two takes on this:
1) There will be a final couple's competition, and the group will be required to couple up and compete for the chance to be in the finals.
2) For the jury vote, the singles are told that they must form couples, and that each couple will only have one vote between them... but after the couples are formed, Justin suddenly puts one of them back into the finals. I'm leaning toward this choice, and I'll explain why in a sec.
Either way, the group will be required to form couples one last time:
First, look at vidcap12:
It's obvious that Anthony and Andrea are partners (which might make sense, considering Anthony's defense of Andrea... "You've hurt people... maliciously")... but look closer... in the bottom right corner... see that orange shirt??? That's the shirt Mike is wearing!!!
Okay, now look at vidcap16:
Mike is seen in this vidcap, but it's impossible to tell who he's with... however, given both 12 and 16 together, I think we can assume that Mike is in the re-coupling competition, and not hanging out with the group of finalists. (Oh yeah... and Gina and Adrian are together).
So... Jeanette switches out Michael (shown saying goodbye in vidcap#19, here)... for who???
Well, from Vidcap13, Toni and Greg are together (duh!!!):
and, from Vidcap15, Laura and Tony are together (duh!!!):
Also, apparently Lisa and Bob are together (vidcap14... but what's in her hand???)
That leaves only Ralph... and here's where he finds out that Jeanette has put him into the finals:
Now, by default, Mike and Tomiko are the other couple.
What I think happens is that, after the couples are chosen, Justin announces that, since Mike was switched out, he and his partner automatically get to be in the finals.
This takes care of two things:
-fixes problem with fairness of being switched out at the end.
-ensures no jury ties (a total of 5 votes... anyone with 3 wins... if there is a 2-2-1 tie, there will be a run-off between the couples with the most votes, with the last vote weighing in).
Okay... so this puts the finals with Darin, Ralph, and Mike.
There is a shot of Darin and Melissa on the launch, going out to sea (one shot, but took two vidcaps (17&18) of it to show both Darin and Melissa):
There are two possible interpretations... Darin and Melissa win, and are taken out to sea, while the rest stay on loser island, or everyone is taken out to sea, while the winners stay behind.
Judging by Melissa's expression (and she lets out a quiet, sad sigh), they have not won (and there's no reason for them to be out at sea until AFTER the final jury vote)... so... Mel and Darin lose.
Even if you disagree on that point, I'd like to look at face time, again, and see how it figures into the finals:
The strongly featured LC'ers:
Anthony-- ends up inciting Jeanette/Toni fight that will help to decide the game... also appears to attack Melissa in the vidcap, possibly influencing other jury votes.
Toni-- the huge fight today will drastically alter the final outcome of the game... first, she makes Jeanette nervous enough to trade partners (and ditch Mike). Her vote will also be a crucial turning point.
Mike-- He was featured in Ep1 as the fat loser that no one liked... then, slowly, he's grown on all of his peers. Now, he appears to be well-liked, and was forgiven by everyone that was mad at him, except Anthony (strategy???), Toni, and Andrea.
I really cannot see how Mike can lose this... since Anthony and Toni's purposes are to be the Susan Hawk and Jerri Manthey of LC, and Darin and Ralph were very under-developed characters, I think that Mike MUST win. Who couldn't feel sorry for Mike that night that he had to eat alone?!??!?...
Also note that the night that he kissed Lisa, they could have edited him to look like a bad guy... using a kiss to try to influence votes... instead, they edited him to look like a good player, and made Lisa look like the confused, conniving b!tch.
Even if you don't believe my theory that couples must vote together, I still believe that the evidence points to a Mike victory.
Here's how I forsee the voting:
Tony/Laura vote for Darin/Melissa because they are the "true couple"
Bob/Lisa vote for Ralph/Jeanette because, as Lisa said on loser island last episode, she'd rather see Jeanette win than see Mike lose... although this way she can get both.
Adrian/Gina vote for Mike/Tomiko, because Adrian and Tomiko are close friends, and Tomiko says on her website that she was loyal to him, and saved him on several occasions from being booted.
Anthony/Andrea vote for Darin/Melissa because Andrea won't vote for Jeanette (who Toni is pissed at) and neither one of them want to vote for Mike because he hurt Andrea... maliciously.
In a huge surprise, Greg/Toni vote for Mike (despite the fact that Toni hates him, according to the speech that she gave on the boat). Toni is more upset and Jeanette and Melissa (thanks to Anthony's little game) and isn't about to vote for either of them.
Lisa and Bob are forced to break the tie between Mike/Tomiko and Darin/Melissa. Lisa had her talk with Mike where they agreed to forgive each other before she left the boat, and ultimately Toni's shouting match hurt both Lisa's and Bob's opinion of Melissa. Mike and Lisa have always been friends, and this wins her over (with Bob in tow).
Congratulations, clown. It couldn't have happened to a better spinning head.
I really hope I'm right, because for the first time since Ep1, I actually think you're gonna win this thing.
That's it for my theories for this show, this season... For those of you that kept posting that you loved my theories... thanks for the ego boost... if you want more, I strongly suggest that you join us all over on the Survivor Spoiler forum (at http://www.survivorblows.com)...
What you've seen here will pale in comparison to the spoiler talent we have working on that show.
You never know what might be up my sleeeve...