>"Denise...will be more of
>an underdog, and may be
>the first player to attend
>almost all TCs, if not
>all, in their season."

With Kalabaw attending TC in Ep 6 and the merge coming up, it's looking like this may just happen yet

--Aaron

We were reminded that Tandang and Kalabaw hadn’t lost during the first 13 days.
Matsing had yet to win and was down to Malcolm and Denise…but an idol can breathe new life.
<Malcolm showed us the idol and said it gave him a huge amount of power>

At the reward challenge…Malcolm and Denise started new chapters in separate tribes.
In Tandang, Malcolm felt right at home, gaining Pete’s trust, putting Michael and RC further on the outs.
<RC heard saying she was going to fight.>

At Kalabaw, there were two alliances headed in opposite directions.
The men’s alliance had Penner’s idol and grew stronger when they recruited Denise.
While the women’s alliance was hit hard when Dana pulled herself from the game.

At the immunity challenge, Katie struggled, costing Kalabaw the victory.

Back at camp, in the face of diminishing numbers, strength was vital so Katie was an easy target.
When Dawson messed with the bull, she got the horns.
Katie was saved; Dawson kissed her chance at the million dollars goodbye.
(Isn’t Probst arrogant!)

Quite interesting that Probst didn’t personalize any of the remaining original members Kalabaw.
Recruiting Denise was a great move by Kent but he didn’t get credit by name: “They” recruited Denise.
Jonathan was only mentioned in connection to the idol, Carter was ignored.
The same could be said of Abi and Artis who didn’t matter in this confessional.
Note also that Peter didn’t recruit an ally, instead Malcolm gained Peter’s trust.

Jeff reduced the story to 4 players: Malcolm, Denise, RC and Mike. None of the others mattered here. We’ve already considered those 4 as long term players from their episode 1 showing. One more person should make a decisive move before too long to shape that end game story and that will be...

The Penner Punch

Katie: “…I’m at the bottom of the totem pole now…I have to work my magic and see what happens.”

It could be said that Katie now embraces the theme of “fighting back” but too bad she has already been categorized as a bad player. Her story cannot change so drastically.

Kalabaw – Day 14

Katie’s first move was to plant the seed in Denise’s head that Penner had the idol. She figured she’d make the merge if she could get rid of Jonathan first.

When we hear players talk about the merge then we know it’s just around the corner. The boot for this episode was already set up during the last episode so what was the goal of this segment? Setting up the star of this episode and his role in future events. This episode was all about Penner, his brilliance, the need to blindside him, his reaction when put against the wall…

Tandang Day 15: Rice War

Peter: “We haven’t had a lot to eat especially since Mike depleted our ressources by eating it dry. He thinks it cooks in your body because it’s nearly 100 degrees so Mike makes terrible decisions. He’s the most useless player that’s ever been returned to Survivor and he needs to go home.”

Artis: “As a returning player, I don’t understand... We have no food because of Mike. I consider us Tnadang plus 1 and Mike is the 1. Now, with us getting Malcolm, Mike has become expendable.”

There’s a limit to the amount of doubt the editors can pile on a player and they’re certainly coming close to that limit with Mike. Some if not most viewers will start remembering the “Idiot Mike” that Varner saw and forget about the valiant Mike that was the heart of Kucha. Has the limit been crossed? Does Mike still have a chance of winning with this story? Well, he would soon prove ressourceful and get some more rice for the tribe but even that will be met with anger! That tells me there’s still a lot of potential to Mike’s story.

The Reward Challenge

When Kalabaw entered the challenge arena, the camera did show Malcolm but his expression revealed nothing about realizing that Denise was still there. Curious choice when a smile could have been inserted.

RC and Artis sat out for Tandang, meaning Abi would participate…maybe!

For a best of 5, it never got passed round 1 as Lisa, Skupin and Peter simply reached a stand-still with Denise, Jonathan and Carter.
The camera still showed us Denise’s determination before the start.

I laughed when Mike said: “This is like heaven” and Penner, face in the mud, replied: “Well, it’s like something.”
But there wasn’t much else to laugh about this challenge that was going nowhere fast.
Maybe it was the fear of seeing Abi participating in the next leg but Penner decided to make a deal: “Our rice for the sandwiches.”
Artis was asked to weigh in on this because it was his birthday.
He would have none of it. He wanted to win but he said: “Do what you want to do, Mike.”

The Reward

Jonathan: “We arrived, covered in mud…cleaned up…and sat down to the most delicious picnic I ever had.”

Carter: “…The sandwiches were all great. Hopefully, this will give us some kind of advantage.”

Kent: “It was great to see all that food but the fact that we don’t have rice is probably going to wear on us in a couple of days.”

Jonathan: “We realized that a little table off to the side had envelops with our name on them.”

Denise: “I knew what it was immediately: It was letters from home.”

Carter: “The tribe started reading the letters and we started tearing up. We are so far from reality out here that when we get a little glimpse of that, it hits in a place we are not used to.”

Kent: “After suffering from rain and being banged up; it was pretty neat.”

Denise: “Coming to this reward, it’s motivational fuel, emotional fuel that makes any rice that we gave up, totally worth it because now it’s new motivation that keeps us going.”

Jonathan: “We came in determined to win and I think this was a win. We walk away with this victory meal and these beautiful letters from home, we are going to be strong going into the immunity challenge.”

For a tribe that we had mostly written off, they had quite a nice showing during this reward. Everyone (except Katie) received two confessionals that made them look united and likable. Unfortunately, the editors probably did to Kalabaw what they do to many individuals that didn’t get much airtime before their final episode: Kalabaw was highlighted before their fall. Jonathan’s victory fell a little short as the immunity challenge would soon reveal.
Looking for long term stories: - Carter was just in the here and now of the reward.
- Jonathan looked forward to the next challenge.
- Kent looked to the next few days and the missing rice
- Denise’s confessional had more long term implications: Motivational and emotional fuel to keep going. Maybe it limits her to the family visit though.

Tandang – Day 15

One of the women apologized to Artis, saying they wanted to give him a birthday feast.

Artis: “It feels brutal that Kalabaw is enjoying the reward that we should have and we are back here, fighting for survival.” Artis told Malcolm it was a brilliant move by Penner. “What really bothered me was that we had a member of our tribe making decisions for our tribe who has done absolutely nothing for our tribe. And RC? Shut up. It’s not a victory.”

After receiving Kalabaw’s meager ration of rice, RC consoled the tribe by saying Kalabaw didn’t have any but Abi commented that they couldn’t even cook the rice.

Lisa: “When we came back, it was worse than a loss and it shouldn’t have been because, with a loss, you don’t get all their rice. But it was a giving up, a forfeit which is a double loss if you choose to focus your energy that way.”

Abi, the champion of challenges, was focusing her energy that way, saying it was the dumbest move in history.
Malcolm tried to put a positive spin on it but his voice was drowned.

Abi then had a confessional: “We gave up a reward challenge. We didn’t fight for it and I doubt that Kalabaw would give us all of their rice without having a Plan B. They have a boat, they have a spear. They can go out the fishing. They’re not stupid. Kalabaw totally used psychology and it worked.”

RC: “We never come back from a challenge and we’re happy but in Survivor world you sort of have to swallow your pride and do things that you don’t normally do. This is just nasty.”

Can you imagine the mood if they had been losing!

RC then told Mike that Artis was raising a storm, cursing at Mike.
Mike asked the simplest of questions: “Then why did he agree?”
Mike then compared Artis to a teenaged girl, whispering to everybody but not having the courage to confront him.

RC: “Artis, Pete and Abi are very nasty and angry. They are cruel but they have the upper hand. My strategy is to let Abi blow up constantly so I can slide under the radar but she’s like a Brazilian bomb that is about to blow up any second.”

Kalabaw – Day 16

It was supposed to be a beautiful day for fishing.

Carter: “We made a deal with the yellow tribe…In all honesty, I didn’t like the deal we came up with because there are no guarantee of food at the moment. Jonathan is pretty confident that he could catch fish but to me it’s a pretty risky deal.”

Katie: “Jonathan comes back and I’m like: “Did you catch anything?” Good Lord! That rice gave you immediate energy but now it’s gone and Jonathan is trying to stay positive by saying we have plenty of food. No we don’t.”

Note that the ones complaining about the deal are the young ones (except for Artis but he’s really like a teenaged girl!). Only Malcolm tried to put a positive spin on it but I think we are clearly seeing a generation gap forming. If the season does go that way, then we should note that the older generation has the numbers advantage.

Jonathan: “Carter is getting frustrated. I promised there’d be food and now…he’s starving. The deprivation doesn’t affect me like it affects some of these younger players but today we have an immunity challenge and it’s crucially important that we win today. We have to get some momentum back. The numbers are tipping badly. If we continue to lose, we are totally screwed.”

Note that there are no “we can do this” type confessionals for Kalabaw that we saw from Natalie in Foa Foa. All of their confessionals are fatalistic.

The Challenge

Probst once more noted that Abi was sitting out.
She told him it wasn’t her choice.

With Lisa and Denise launching balls, we had Artis and Penner at one post, Carter and Malcolm at the second, Jeff against Pete and RC against Katie.
Penner scored on the first throw.
Pete and RC replied for Tandang in the second round.
Playing the outfield, the baseball player scored 3 consecutive points for Kalabaw.
Tandang switched strategy, Skupin telling Lisa to go short for Malcolm.
That earned Tandang the next two points and a tie.
Realizing a bit too late that the game had moved to the infield, Kent switched positions with Carter but Malcolm did a little pass interference, throwing the baseball player to the ground to score the last point.
(A reminder of Dawson’s comment that football players are better athletes than Baseball players! And, on that note, Jeff must be a replacement referee because he never called that blatant foul!)

Tandang won immunity and Jeff told Abi that Malcolm deserved to hold the idol.

Kalabaw

Kent: “Carter was outmuscled and outmaneuvered by Malcolm so we ended up short again. Another disappointment; we have to go to tribal Council and vote somebody off. Penner and I have an alliance but I am still on the fence right now. I still don’t know which way I am going to jump.”

Carter and Kent discussed the value of Denise, the worthlessness of Katie and the dangers of Penner.
Once more, Kent’s words (“We didn’t want a veteran to win”) were captioned on screen.

Carter: “Jeff thinks it may be a good idea to make a big move and get rid of Jonathan but, at the same time, going into the merge with Penner might be a good thing because the eyes are going to be on him, not on me and Jeff because no one wants a returning player to win.”

Jeff ended the conversation with: “I think we need to pull the Penner Punch. We just have to make sure he doesn’t see it coming so he doesn’t use the idol. That’s all.”

Hearing Jeff once more say that they don’t want a veteran to win now makes it likely that we see just that happening. The newbies missed their chance so now, I expect Carter and Jeff to regret for the rest of their lives when Jonathan blindsides them and goes with Skupin and his tribe. That will be the real “Penner Punch” as only Jonathan can deliver it!

Then, in a marvelous little scene, Carter turned to Jonathan who had joined them in the shelter and asked: “Penner, what do you want to do? Katie or Penner…I mean Denise?”

Kent noticed the faux-pas and shook his head but Jonathan seemed to accept it as an honest mix-up.

The audience certainly noticed it though! And it will count as the first hint that Jonathan sees it coming.

Jonathan: “To win this game, I’m going to have to make big moves out of desperation. That’s what happens: If you’re down in numbers and your back starts getting put up against the wall. Katie has got to go, she is not useful to us. I need her gone.”

Note the change of sound quality when Jonathan starts talking about Katie. I think the part about making big moves comes from a different time frame than this episode. Booting Katie is certainly not the big move Jonathan was talking about so there’s a lack of logic in this confessional that is more likely coming from the editors than from Jonathan himself.

The first part of the confessional comes from a time when Jonathan will truly feel that his back is against the wall. That will probably be at the merge. It was inserted here to put the wheels in motion but Jonathan’s words at TC show that he wasn’t yet desperate. Expect a big move by Penner, one that Carter and Kent will indeed regret for the rest of their lives.

Katie: “When I went over to the three guys, right away without me asking, Penner goes: “It’s Denise. I’m thinking he is feeding me a big line of BS...”

Katie rightfully called Penner the wild card, saying she trusted Denise a hell of a lot more.

Now we have two players set up for a big move!

Kent: “I came into this game knowing that I would have to lie, knowing that I would have to jeopardize my integrity, my character so I am still weighing my options and all of them have to do with furthering myself in this game.”

Note that, after Pete last week, Kent now delivers a confessional that reminds us of Kim’s last season: Weighing his options, going further in the game…Why don’t these confessional sound as promising as they did when Kim delivered them? Because of the season’s themes: The ones that have the options or think they do, the ones in control, will find out that they aren’t in control. The next confessional by Kent would drive the point home:

Kent: “The hard decision is voting Jonathan out…It’s a crap shoot. You go up to the plate not knowing if you are going to strike out or hit a home run but you go up to the plate swinging the bat.”

There are a lot more strike outs than homeruns in a season! Jeff failed to make the hard decision. “You’re OUT!”

Tribal Council

When asked who was in trouble, Katie and Denise raised their hand.
Denise explained she was still the new girl on the block.
Katie admitted she didn’t perform well in challenges.
When Jeff asked Jonathan about his feeling of security, Penner answered: “One doesn’t want to volunteer one’s self and give everyone else the notion that “Maybe I should vote for Penner.” Whether I am vulnerable or not, I want to give the impression that I feel confident.”
(That is a new version of “The game is afoot!)
Kent said that every votes gets tougher. He added that the votes will be blindsides because they like each other.
Jonathan explained that it would be so because the votes won’t be personal.
Jeff asked Kent if he played any games that was like Survivor.
Kent flat out said: “No. This game sucks.”
They agreed that it sucked because it was complicated. “You are going to blindside your friends because you are too guilty to tell him that we don’t want you here anymore.”
All the while, the camera was on Jonathan as if to tell us he understood that Kent was really talking about him. This is our second hint that Jonathan sees it coming.
Katie told Jeff her vote would be based on loyalty.
Jonathan said that Katie could be sending a message to someone. He added: “They know I would do anything in my power to make this work out and it might ricochet and one of them might get voted out.”

Before sending them to vote, Jeff rejoiced: “Everybody knows it will be a blindside, the question is; who is it going to be?”

While voting, Katie told us that Jonathan isn’t to be trusted.

When Jeff read the vote against him, Jonathan laughed and turned towards Kent.

That was our third hint that Jonathan sees it coming and will deliver the Penner Punch himself. Certainly he’ll realize that this vote came from Katie but why would she vote against him if she hadn’t been told to do so? The only reason she voted against him and not Denise had to be because that’s what she had been told could happen. Jonathan is smart AND paranoid enough to understand that implication.

Jeff sent them back to camp by saying that anything could happen if they were strong and united.
They are weak and divided!

The Story

This episode pointed us directly to Jonathan as the catalyst of the whole end game. Cook Islands’ main narrational theme was the “Jonathan camera”: All the players and the events were shown from Jonathan’s point of view. If Jonathan liked someone, they got a good edit, if he didn’t their edit suffered. Parvati had a nice edit up to the mutiny when Jonathan joined her and finally gave us an opinion on her: “She didn’t know anything about Surviving and didn’t deserve to be there.” That was how she was portrayed up to the moment that Jonathan left and them, just like that, Yul told us that she wasn’t that bad!! The same could be said of Nathan and Becky and Adam, etc…

This season, I think everything will depend on the Penner Punch. His actions will decide the game and while I know Carter and Kent will regret it for the rest of their lives, I can oonly guess who will profit from it. Kent’s mantra that they don’t want a returning player to win points in the direction of the returning players though. One thing seems certain; the winner will not be one of the young ones who are nasty and cruel.

The Characters

The Nasty and Cruel Players:

Abi, Pete and Artis: Somehow, the Penner Punch will also ricochet on them and they won’t see it coming. How? Probably because of a power shift that will come from Jonathan’s move. Their portrayal is much too negative to expect any other outcome than a comedic fall. Their actions could have been spun much more positively because they weren’t wrong: It is questionable to give up in a challenge. It isn’t a good idea to eat big portions. But the rational comments we heard told us that these three are overreacting, acting in an illogical manner. That kills their story (but that isn’t the first hint we’ve received about their failure).

The Ones that Will Regret It:

Carter: I expect he will be the first to pay for the Penner Punch. He was shown to be quite dumb when he asked Penner if he wanted to eliminate Penner. His story was lacking in many other ways but we saw him in more focus this time and he was outmaneuvered. By Malcolm in the challenge and by Penner in the game.

Kent: At first, I thought that his mantra would be used to tell us that a returning player couldn’t win but to hear it repeated in an episode where he missed his chance, where he didn’t make the tough call, then I see him voting for the returning player in the end after all. This episode was a strike out for Kent and he probably won’t get another trip to the plate, meaning that the bat will never be in his hands again, that he just lost control.

The Catalyst
Jonathan: I could be mistaken but I see Jonathan as the catalyst for this season’s outcome, not its final product. A big move out of desperation sounds more like something that will totally shake up the game, take the control out of everyone’s hands and give us an unlikely winner. Penner did it once when he mutinied and only Yul and his powerful idol prevented a total collapse of his former tribe. There are no Yuls this season and the idol isn’t as powerful so Penner’s actions will destroy Kalabaw and himself along the way and probably shake Tandang enough that its own power structure will collapse.

Sidelined : This episode put so much energy is preparing Jonathan‘s story that our long term players had limited participation:

Lisa : For the second week, her role was limited to narrating the events of Tandang. She still fits with the main themes but there isn’t any progression to her story.

Malcolm: The main focus was on his performance during the immunity challenge. Jeff praised him for it and we even heard Kent commenting on his abilities to outmuscle and outmaneuver Carter. But we already expected that from him. We had brief glimpses of his thoughts on the game but they are mostly limited to surviving the immediate dangers or to boast about some imaginary power. There is no long term connections surrounding Malcolm and for a large character that is bothersome.

Denise: The episode never gave us her thoughts about being in danger and we didn’t see what she did to save herself. We did hear that she felt in danger so this would have been the perfect episode to showcase her abilities to regroup and influence the decisions. Unfortunately, all she had was that early talk with Katie who was the one planting a seed. There is still care given to Denise’s edit but a winner’s thoughts are never ignored when the vote could possibly go against them. Hopefully this was just a pause for Denise but it looked really strange.

RC: Once more, RC was put on the defensive, first by the recap that still doesn’t want us to forget her misery then by Artis after the reward. I found it interesting that RC decided to use Lisa’s strategy of letting Abi blow up. Could the two reasonable women have already come to an understanding that we are not seeing to keep us fearing for RC? I will say that over and above the care we see given to Denise, Malcolm and Lisa, there is some manipulation to RC’s story. She’s always been shown to be in danger, (even the ocean is against her!) yet she hasn’t gone once to Tribal Council. The anti-Denise still has just about as much importance to the story as the sex therapist. That would be something to consider seriously as manipulating the edit for the winner if someone else hadn’t received even more manipulations.

Mike: Can you believe that one of the Heroes of Australia was called the worst returning player ever? And I am not talking about the listless Colby that showed he was a poor player both times he returned. How can a move that deprived the enemy of all their food reserves be called the dumbest ever? The editors seem to be going out of their way to dump on Mike, to destroy his reputation by showing the audience they were right not to invite him back for the first All-Stars. However, if that was the intent, if they wanted us to say that Mike is useless; then why show us Skupin as the one responsible for their comeback in the immunity challenge? From the sideline, the “coach” told his “QB” to throw short to Malcolm.

There has to be an alternative and that could only be that they have a beautiful comeback story on the back-burner for him. Imagine, this tireless worker, hunter, fisher is said to have done nothing for his tribe and we have no way of saying that it isnt true. Have we seen him hunting, fishing or even just looking for fruits? No but we know that cannot be, that people don’t change that much. Therefore, Mike’s contributions are hidden from us and there has to be a reason for it.

There is so much manipulation to his edit that I have to believe that Mike is the winner of Survivor – The Philippines.

Interesting analysis and gutsy. I haven't even really considered Mike as the winner because I just can't get over the fact he hasn't had a single confessional since Week 1. Though he did have an amazing premiere episode. According to the confessionals thread, he had 7 confessionals in that one episode (but none since.)

I'd consider it gutsy if I was betting on it but, as is, it's just for fun.

What would be really funny if this comes true would be the wink at Tina's win that Mike's edit would represent: Tina's win was predicted at just about this time during season 2 by Tapewatcher who noticed that Tina had been the only player without a confessional during episode 1. He called it "The Dog that Didn't Bark."

Here, if Mike wins, it would be a variation on the theme: While he was prominent in episode 1, Mike has fallen into anonymity since then, a dog that doesn't bark. The parallel seems too strange to be a coincidence.

I love that explanation for the lack of confessionals. It is very odd that he has no confessionals for such a long period. It does feel intentional, and your explanation is better than any I can think of. So maybe I'll start rooting for Mike. Though if I had to bet, I'd go with Denise at this point.

Thought I'd chime in here too! It certainly is rather bold to predict Mike as the winner. I would love for him to have been the winner, but it just doesn't add up for me.

My take on Mike's edit is to show the nature of the two factions on Tandang. While we have been shown the various alliance shifts over there during the past 6 episodes - the divide we've been shown repeatedly is those who want Mike gone vs. those who don't.

Just like in Ep 1, when he had his only confessionals so far, Mike's edit is aiding in the telling of this season's story - NOT in telling us of his winning story. I sense he has been used by editing to make those who want to take him out of the game look bad (ie. Artis, Abi Maria, Peter). This is why we are seeing it and hearing it from their perspective and not hearing anything from Mike.

Those on his tribe who don't want to see him go, like RC and Lisa (and perhaps Malcolm) are getting far stronger, consistent edits than him. Let's see if he continues to be a player in one of their games. As their shot for sole survivor seems more likely than his.

One more thought: Can't wait to see Mike's interaction with Denise at the merge! Now that will be telling ;)

Just posting it again here as it's relevant:

Tapewatcher's breakdown of the "Dog-That-Didn't-Bark" storyline

(grab a cup of coffee - it's a long read)

You know I've been a fan of yours for years michel and the thing that I admire most is the way you can pinpoint the theme of the episode week after week. Always fascinating reading!

I am firmly in Denise's camp but I noticed too that we didn't hear her thoughts before the Kalabaw tribal council and that concerns me. She did have a nice segment during the letters from home which is always a positive sign. I won't give up on her chances but there is one red flag up now!

Mike's edit has been odd and as you pointed out, heavily manipulated. They played up his clumsiness so much in the beginning - perhaps to echo his falling in the fire - that I fully expect him to have a redemption of some sort. He will be one to watch post merge. In regards to your thoughts that he wins, I am reminded that when Jeff Probst described this season months ago as really good, Spot commented, that must mean a man wins!

Thank you, CTGirl. I really like Denise's story a lot myself. The funniest thing is that, after my first watch on Wednaesday, I told myself: This is it: Denise wins. Lisa and RC also have stories that could lead to a win and I'd be pulling for RC myself but there's just something about Mike's story.

Take Artis' comment that Mike has done nothing for the tribe and ask yourself what is the most important thing someone can do for a tribe? Win challenges of course. Well, Mike was shown twice finding the way for his tribe to win a challenge: Throwing his idol in the air to knock the other to the ground and telling Lisa to go for Malcolm. That's doing something for the tribe in a big way. And didn't we have a press photo with Mike using the fishing nets? He must have gone out to catch fish then, no?

Enjoyable episode considering it was a predictable boot. Loved the Reward Challenge, even if it was cut short due to the "unprecedented" deal. It was priceless to see the tribes unknowingly spoil/share tribal dynamics during the negotiation. All on the heels of a merge coming next! Setting up lots of conflict and variables to use in creating new factions of a merged tribe. So what did we get from the castaways this time:

Carter - Good to finally get some confessionals out of Carter, but is it too little too late. Based on his edit so far, I'd say so. His confessionals, along with quotes from his scenes, gave us the impression that Carter doesn't have the fight in him. Stating "I just want to go home now" is a sweet sentiment in response to letters from home, but not the fighting spirit needed to move forward in this season of survivor. Add this to him saying "I don't know if my body can last" - the editing is not painting a picture of longevity for Carter. We also have him turning to Jonathan about the boot, stating "Katie or Penner?" Ha, what a slip up. Classic! Enough indication that he won't have the wherewithal to make heads or tails of the mix-ups at merge. Just like he handed over his playing spot to Jeff Kent at the IC, he will likely provide another player 3 more days in the game as he gets booted.

Artis - There's still very little story for Arits and it all seems to be tied to Michael, and the dislike Artis has for him. This episode we also saw Peter and Abi Maria share their disdain for Michael, but they have more story and character development than Artis - providing even more contrast for us to show how Artis is not part of this season's story. Personally, I thought Artis' confessionals about Michael were funny, but it really hurts to see nothing more from him, as there likely could have been more to work with from him if he were more relevant to the story.

Michael - What seemed like such a great quote for Michael in the first episode with "going with the game." It seems like he is far off course with it. Those he was aligned with, not only moved on with their game (& their alliance from him) episodes ago, but now we see them outwardly harboring resentment toward him at camp with making rice and at the challenge with making cross-tribal deals. Is Michael still "going with the game" - based on the editing, it sure does not look that way to me. He has merely become a litmus test for us to determine who from the Tandang tribe should be deemed positive or negative. And in Ep 6, this clearly classified Artis, Peter and Abi Maria as the "negatives." As a revered returnee, we are not hearing his side of the story (as his is NOT this season's story) and this is unprecedented with the editing of returnees. I firmly believe that with a five week confessional count of 0 (despite a strong Ep 1 showing) that the writing is on the wall for Michael - he is not the sole survivor this season.

Jonathan - In contrast to Michael, Jonathan is getting a beefier edit that production likes to give to returnees. Plus the fact that Jonathan is arguably the best narrator we have ever seen in terms of understanding the game and being able to articulate it clearly to the audience (perhaps, only second to Rob C.) Therefore, Jonathan will be seen and heard, regardless of his actual longevity. While Penner was the star of Ep 6, he failed to get any fish like he promised, and we even hear Jeff state "Yeah, it didn't work out for him" - which was also captioned on our screens. Once again, throughout the season, Jonathan's edit and tribe has been the most literal. Each week it seems we are getting telegraphed how he will fall short. His story is intertwined with Jeff (and a bit of Carter on the side) - this will play out after merge, but likely won't have legs to make it to FTC.

Jeff Kent - Had a solid episode - with a good IC performance, a nice "letters from home" share, and some "boot" talk (which shows how he manages to always keep the target from him). But yet with each episode, it's harder to see how Jeff might actually have the opportunity to speak his game in front of the journey. He's back to his mantra of: "we can't let a veteran win." How much different is that from letting a celebrity baseball player win? It seems like Jeff will have to do some double-dealing at merge time to prolong his game, and we have been set up to believe that it will include betraying his alliance to Jonathan. We haven't seen Jonathan do anything to deserve this betrayal (yet) - therefore making Jeff look more like the villain. He'll have some room to play with amongst the Tandangs, but does he have enough story so far to pick up momentum through the merged tribe?

Abi Maria - This episode continued to further Abi Maria's edit as someone the viewers will not get behind to cheer for as a winner. Her negativity outshines any logic or strategic gameplay she may seem to have - and we see this in camp as well as from her confessionals. We also see Jeff repeatedly mention her lack of participation when at the challenges. Abi Maria has longevity due to being on the winning tribe so many times, and being tied to Tandang's main alliance. With an upcoming merge, we shall see her in action and see if she can actually play with any sound strategy. The edit does not support this, as she is clearly the most emotional player left in the game. Unless we start hearing hints from other key players to take her as a goat, she will not see endgame. And viewers may get to enjoy the "Brazilian bomb about to blow up" as suggested by RC.

Peter - Not much of an episode for Peter. Just some further confirmation of his ire for Mike, and his alignment with Abi Maria and Artis. This episode put the least attention on him of the three "negatives." This may indicate he outlasts them, but we didn't really learn anything more to add to his longevity in the game. His story needs to amp up come merge time, otherwise this possible darkhorse will be seen as a racehorse and a likely boot target as a challenge threat.

Malcolm - Malcolm was nicely highlighted in the recap - both he and Denise, had their journey's thus far, clearly emphasized. To which we were reminded that he "got my swag back" and that he has power with the idol. Even in an episode without confessionals, Malcolm is "on fire" - as stated by Jeff in the IC. After a big Ep 5 for Malcolm, it's no surprise that we'd hear less from him this episode. He has already been established as a key player this season, with strategy soundbites and connections to other key players. Although approached by Peter last episode, he was not connected with the "negatives" in this episode, rather he was shown contributing a positive outlook on the rice situation. Does this align him with other "positives" from that scenario: Michael, RC, and Lisa? Does it even matter? He has an HII in his possession and he will soon be reunited with Denise.

RC - RC is still getting attention, even though it's not really warranted for the episode. At the recap we are again reminded of how Mike & RC are on the outs, yet it was her quote that was repeated "I'm going to fight!" And at the Reward challenge, when the deal was made, Artis stated that "you all are not seeing the big picture" to which the camera pans over to include RC - as if to remind us that she does see the big picture and is included in it. And she had a great confessional about "in Survivor world you have to swallow your pride" - clearly contrasting the self-awareness that some players have and others don't. The question is will we get to see RC "swallow her pride" sitting in front of a jury. She continues to have the 'cream of the crop' with her confessionals, will she continue to narrate post merge?

Lisa - Once again, Lisa had a nice steady episode. She held her own at the Reward challenge up against the strong Denise (to which Jeff noted), she shared the most accurate, balanced viewpoint on the "rice deal" and it's aftermath, and she was not indicated to be clustered with the negative tone of her alliance mates. She also had a noticeable connection with Malcolm, as they went on to win the IC. Lisa is continually given the consistent edit that we like to see for someone who makes it far into the game. From the glimmers of what we've been given for next episode, it seems Lisa is going to come into focus some more. It will be telling for chances for endgame.

Denise - Like with Malcolm, the recap highlighted Denise's progression so far in this game. We were reminded of her great quote "Every step is an opportunity to turn things around." This was yet another good episode for her, even though the attention wasn't mainly on her. Like with the first scene with Katie, not only did it help set up Katie's boot, but we once again got to see Denise in action with another player working her magic. Also in Ep6 we now hear 3 more players in the game (Jeff and Carter, then Penner) talk about her work ethic and loyalty, and ability to win challenges. We are consistently being told of Denise's value. Plus, we can now add to Denise's list of remarkable quotes: in response to the letters from home, she stated "It's motivational fuel, it's emotional fuel... to just keep going" And yes, while many of her quotes could be weaving the narrative for the Survivor story, it has a feeling of being about Denise's personal journey through this game. Along with the rest of her deliberate attention she's getting, this makes it more than a journey edit, but rather a winner's edit.

Love the recap/analysis, as always! And I'm finally glad that you settled on Mike as the winner. I was leaning that way after Episode 1, but then he disappeared.

Can another theme be: Remember Season 2? (they had an issue with no rice, too... taken away by the water!)

Lisa & Denise: Nice women, and I want them to do well, but I'm kind of bored of them at this point, much as I was bored with Tina. Denise survived her tribe... yay. Lisa is awesome, but she hasn't done much lately. Either could be the winner, a'la Tina... lucky, and hanging with the Colby-type.

Malcolm: I don't see a long-term player. He strikes me (if we're going with those S2 analogies) of being similar to Colby, with the inevitable immunity run and the alliance with an older female. Can he go that far? I don't think so.

RC: I guess we have to compare her to... Amber? Maybe if she was still the sidekick to the villainess (we'll have to wait for AllStars3 for her to win?) If not Amber, then Jerri? She snuggled to Malcolm (Colby) that one time, and she feels alone. But she's way nicer. As nice as... Elisabeth? She has a thing for the older man (Mike), so maybe that fits. F4?

Mike: What would have happened had he stayed out of the fire in Autralia? There were a lot of fire references (from Lisa) the last episode, as if wanting us to remember the fire guy.

Plus if Michel is putting the stamp on Mike, then I'm going there, too!

Grats Mike!!

The recap first reminded us of Malcolm and Denise’s story: A pair from the beginning, Denise and Malcolm were the only members of Matsing remaining.
<We heard Denise say that Malcolm may be young but that he is wise.>
A change in the game split them up.
Malcolm, with his idol, was sent to Tandang, winning challenges after challenges…
While Denise had yet to taste victory with Kalabaw.

Then we had Mike and RC’s troubles in Tandang:
The winning streak came to an end when Skupin and RC convinced their tribe to forfeit the victory for the rest of Kalabaw’s rice.
<We heard Mike saying: “From a strategic point of view, let’s take their food and go.”
We also saw Artis’ sour reaction.>
Back at camp, Artis, Pete and Abi were all but satisfied…
<Abi is heard saying it was the dumbest moments on survivor>
…villifying Skupin and RC for giving up reward.

At the reward challenge, Malcolm singlehandedly caught the victory for Tandang while Katie continued to be a liability.
Jeff Kent had other plans, targeting his former new ally Penner and his idol.
<Kent tells us he may need Jonathan to go further in the game.>
At Tribal Council, Kent ditched his plans and Katie to keep the tribe strong.

This recap reduced Kalabaw to being only Denise’s new surroundings. They weren’t worth mentioning before they had to go to Tribal Council again. In fact, the recap reduced the season to the obstacles faced by Malcolm, Denise, Mike and RC. One of that foursome wouldn’t survive the night but for the other 3, the future looks much more promising.

It Just Takes Two

Kalabaw – Night 16

Denise: “Coming back from the 6th Tribal Council in a row, I’m just glad I’m back but it’s like déjà vu. It’s one after the other. Am I cursed?”

Jonathan then talked about Katie’s vote against him. Kent tried to explain but Jonathan wasn’t convinced.

Kent first told us about the situation: “Tribal tonight was chaotic. I was about to let Penner go but I think Penner could help me out. I hope I made the right choice. We’re two guys taking shots at each other but there will come a time and a place where I will have to get to him before he gets to me.”

Jonathan had a confessional also: “I think Jeff and I have built a trust between each other but I was really surprised that Katie wrote my name. It shouldn’t have been. I forget that other people are lying. It’s always my problem. It’s a wake-up call. Do I get to keep my eyes and ears open as we move forward? Of course. It would be stupid not to.”

Tandang – Day 17

Mike told his tribe that day 17 was the day he fell in the fire during Australia.
Malcolm joked that he barely made it this far this time.

Mike: “I fell in the fire this far in the game 24 seasons ago so I no longer have an advantage. It’s all new territory for all of us.”

This, I think, is the key quote to understanding the story.

Just then, Artis spotted the catamaran.

Lisa: “We were just lying around thinking it was going to be a long day when all of a sudden we saw this boat and we thought: He’s going to come in the cove, no he’s not, he’s coming in: OH! My God!. Then we heard the best news we’ve had since day 1…When you only have 10 minutes to gather up everything you have, everything is like gold, making sure I don’t have socks hanging on a line somewhere or shoes hidden underneath the raft somewhere, that’s priority one.”

Malcolm had a confessional while packing his bag: “I buried my idol the first day I got here now I have 10 minutes to dig it up again.”

Kalabaw

Jonathan: “It’s a new lifeline for all of us. There’s 4 of us, 7 of them so we’re hoping for some dissension over there. We can take one or two people to our side, use them for a while and then cut them off if we can.”

Denise: “Kalabaw, we are going to stay 4 strong. We need two to shift that balance and have majority. My plan is to stick with the alliance that I have with Kalabaw but, at the same time, I truly would like to go back to my original alliance with Malcolm.”

During the unloading of the boat, I noticed RC picking the immunity idol...

...and then Skupin had it when he went to embrace Jonathan, the first two to greet each other.

Knowing what happened to RC, did they show this to hint that she should have kept it instead of giving it (and her story) to Skupin? And what is the significance of showing Skupin and Mike hugging first if they do not align sooner or later? Especially considering the confessional that came immediately after

Kent: “I believe that a veteran player shouldn’t be winning this game. Penner has always been my priority since day 1 and now that I am on a team with Penner and Skupin, I have two priorities. It was a good introduction. I don’t think anyone knows who I am so that’s a good thing. As long as we don’t talk about baseball, maybe I’m safe.”

Peter: “The feast was amazing. There was more food than you could ever want. The wine was awesome. The tribe’s first intention when we landed on this island was to be Tandang strong but that was impossible because RC is someone that would never let that happen and Skupin doesn’t have a brain of his own. He does what RC tells him to do.”

Mike’s confessional reminded us that Pete was the cause of dissension, not the other way around: “I never made the merge before. They merged in Australia, the day after I was medevaced so this is kinda cool and merging with numbers? Even better. I noticed Pete and Abi, the power alliance in our tribe, being a little quiet. They haven’t had alliegience in weeks to RC and I so we’re really free agents. Being free agents means you get to choose your team. It just takes two.”

Doesn’t this confessional contradict Pete’s assesment completely? It certainly seems that Skupin has a brain. I also noted that the merge feast was the occasion for the viewers to hear about only 2 players’ personal life: Kent and Skupin’s.

Abi, RC and Lisa sat together, RC saying that she thought Denise would talk to her.
Abi suggested that RC should be a spy to get information.
RC countered that they weren’t one big happy family which seemed to frustrate Lisa a lot because we saw her bowing her head when RC said that.

Merged Tribe – Day 17

Lisa: “On the merged beach, the guys were working on the shelter so I thought I’d hang everyone’s clothes out and give them some sun so we don’t sleep with wet clothes. Then I picked up Malcolm’s bag…I was looking in there and I felt something. I discovered he had the hidden immunity idol in his bag, which totally shocked me.”

Malcolm and Denise quickly noticed.

Lisa wasn’t dressed the same way while she was hanging the clothes as when she was giving her confessional. She had a dress while hanging the clothes but pants when talking to Malcolm and giving her confessional.

Maybe she changed before Malcolm whisked her away but he must have acted quickly. Her hair changed also in each scene (Loose when she first hangs the clothes, in a bun on top while hanging the last ones, So, it’s quite probable that the camera crew missed the shot when she found the idol and had to recreate the scene from another occasion when Lisa takes care of the clothes.

Malcolm: “I was going to change clothes and hide the idol but I thought one hour would be a safe amount of time to assume people would be eating, drinking and getting to know each other. Apparently, the estrogen kicked in and we had to have our clothes cleaned. Now, I have to pin down good ole Lisa who, I think, from the goodness of her heart, tried to dry my clothes. I get her alone and don’t say a word, I just looked at her.”

Lisa did confess immediately to finding the idol. She promised not to tell anybody while Malcolm promised his “new momma” a Final 3 deal with Denise.

Malcom’s confessional continued: “Alleluia! The church lady found it who hopefully, has a heart. At the same time, I’m locked into an involuntary alliance with Lisa and Denise, the two people I don’t have confidence I could beat in the Final 3 just because they are nice but…”

Lisa had a confessional of her own: “Malcolm promised a Final 3 with me and Denise. That’s really nice but you do have to take it with a grain of salt. I’m not the only actor on this island! I could be being played.”

Having both players give their point of view underlines the importance of the scene and of the characters. The scene ended with both laughing but we suspect that Final 3 won’t make it to the end and Lisa certainly came out of it looking more aware of the situation than Malcolm

Day 18
We never heard a discussion about the tribe’s name.

Lisa had a confessional after a nice scene with Jonathan: “Penner is aware of my past as a child star but we didn’t talk strategy and, if we weren’t on this island, we would have a really great time over lunch, just talking about each other’s lives. If you have that kind of connection, it’s valuable especially if you do wind up aligned together further down the road.”

Does anyone think Lisa may have warned Penner before TC, letting him know to use his idol? It would be strange since she did vote against him but maybe it was a way to hide their future alliance.

Jonathan: “Lisa had been on “Facts of Life” but now, as with many, many former actors, you get older and you do other things with your life. Lisa is a cool lady. She could actually go pretty far as an under-the-radar, non-threatening person who could find herself sitting in the Final 3. I believe that.”

Jonathan promised not to blow her cover.

Jonathan’s POV is always important on Survivor so we should say with confidence that Lisa will make the Final 3.

Jonathan then talked to Skupin about the dangers of being a returning player.

Jonathan: “I am trying to find fissures in this yellow tribe and Skupin seems like a cool guy so I got to help him feel as comfortable as he can about slitting the throats of the people he spent 17 days with.”

Jonathan offered 4 loyal people but we now know he couldn’t deliver.

Mike, after receiving a nice helicopter shot, talked it over with RC asking her how she felt about realignement.
RC only gave him a 50-50 which sounded like the wrong answer and could be the reason Mike didn’t stick with RC in the end.
Mike told her he couldn’t trust Tandang.

RC in confessional: “There are a lot of dynamics right now. Me and Mike are solid but we would like to feel more secure. The old Tandang tribe made it obvious about me and Mike. They ostracised us both for 17 days. So, Jonathan corrals his threesome and I have Mike obviously on my side, so that’s 6 so why wouldn’t we do something? If we have a chance to go somewhere else, why not?”

Mike told her why not: “We need to take baby steps before we can take giant steps.”

Back in camp, Kent was back to his idea of going after veterans, Penner first.
Pete, Malcolm, Artis and Abi were there to listen.

Kent: “I know Penner’s got the idol, nobody else knows for sure but I know and I’ll join any game to get Penner out before I get out.”

The group agreed to split the votes 4-4 between Penner and RC.

Malcolm: “The little clique inside of Tandang is operating under the assumption that Penner has an idol but we don’t have the votes within our own tribe to split the votes and get rid of him so we have to pull in Jeff, Carter and Denise. We would split the votes between Penner and RC. If Penner has an idol, he’ll have to play it to save himself and RC goes home but, if not, we revote and get rid of Penner right now. The only wrinkle is if the Kalabaw; Jeff, Carter and hum, Denise, are going to go along with this, go along with what they say they will.”

Being the one to express the nasty ones’ plan is terrible for Malcolm. His story is that of the nice guy that wins challenges and goes to the end hoping that his social game will enable him to win over two very nice persons yet now, he is tainted with RC’s blood. This ended his chances, storywise, to win the game. At least Denise was nowhere to be seen during this scene.

The Challenge

Does anyone think that Abi lied about her weight?!

Skupin was the first to fall out, followed by Pete and Penner who got some ribbing from Jeff like in the good old days.
Lisa and Malcolm soon followed.
Abi let go immediately after RC had dropped her bucket so Denise won immunity for the women.
Carter eventually outlasted Artis and Kent.
For Denise it was her first immunity as Malcolm noted

Artis: “I’m happy that Penner and RC didn’t come close to winning immunity because we are going to split the votes between Penner and RC. If Penner plays the idol, RC goes home. If Penner doesn’t play the idol, he goes home with it.”

RC: “It’s been a good day so far. No, I didn’t win immunity but we got this core 6 in place right now. Me and Mike are solid and we are definitely with Kalabaw. With us 6. we are in the majority.”

Mike had a confessional that looked back to his whole time on Survivor and clearly contrasted with RC’s carefree attitude: “I have never felt threatened before and tonight, returning players are a major threat. My reputation is pretty competitive. My reputation isn’t being loyal to a tribe that hasn’t been loyal to me. There isn’t anybody who think that I would go down without a fight.”

These words and the epsiode’s outcome tell us that the themes of fighting back outlined by RC really applied to her companion, Mike.

He then had a talk with Jeff, the leader of Kalabaw: “Pete, Abi and Artis cannot control this game. They are too rude. I just hate them.”
He offered to go with Kalabaw’s 4 but Kent was still obsessed about Penner outlasting him.
Mike then said he’d go with Jeff.

Mike: “It just takes two people from Tandang to realign with the Kalabaw tribe then they would be 6 strong. Unless God himself appears live before me and speaks to me, I cannot follow Pete, Artis and Abi as long as I have some assurance that Jeff and Carter aren’t going to switch over to the old Tandang tribe. Because if RC and I go this way while Jeff and Carter go this way then, what happened? Nothing got gained.”

This and the baby steps strategy explain Mike’s vote against Penner. With Carter and Jeff indeed going with Tandang, it would have been foolish to flip.

Jeff and Carter talked it over and they realized that going with the yellow tribe against Penner would put them at the bottom yet they chose to go that way.

Jonathan after pledging loyalty again to Kalabaw, had a confessional: “If the people that I believe are going to vote with me are really not going to vote with me, if all of this has been smoke, then I’m a terrible judge of character and I don’t really deserve to stay in the game. I do believe that Skupin, RC, Denise, Carter and Jeff are going to vote with me. They all mean it; I believe they do.”

Once more, Jonathan forgot that people could be lying. Jonathan is a terrible judge of character because Kent and Carter were then shown telling Pete they were still on.

Kent: “I’m at a cross roads. I’m either going with veterans players, people I don’t want to win this game, trying to ride them out, or I’m going to go with the Tandang tribe and vote out Penner but then I’m at the bottom. If you treat baseball with disrespect, you are going to get bit in the ass and I know that if you treat this game with disrespect you’re going to get bit in the ass too so, with all humbleness, I say that the decision on who goes home tonight is going to be heavily based on which way I go and who I carry over to the other side. I got to protect myself because whatever move I make, it’s not going to sit well with either tribe.”

Unfortunately for Kent, the sun came down while he talked about his crossroads, symbolyzing the end of his game.

Tribal Council

First Jeff noted the history made by Tandang and by Denise.
Denise was happy to survive one more time
Skupin said the fractures in Tandang were natural but that they still pulled off the wins.
RC said it got pretty bad but that families fight sometimes.
Abi said she had been close to RC until the betrayal.
RC said she still didn’t know how she betrayed Abi.
Abi mentioned the idol clue.
Peter smiled when they accused each other.
Asked if this fight could cause people to flip to Kalabaw, Lisa mentioned that they would simply be voted off at the end by Kalabaw.
Kent mentioned that the 5th position in Kalabaw is better than 6th or 7th on Tandang.
Lisa countered that you’re weaker after flipping because you’ve shown you can’t be trusted.
Pete said that players usually don’t like returning players.
Lisa said she was concerned by Denise and Malcolm’s alliance and that they too could jump over and avoid being the dog that’s kicked to the side of the road.
Asked about the idol, Pete said he thought Matsing’s idol was gone. He added he felt he had a target on his back.
Kent told Jeff that they were still scrambling because they didn’t know exactly who was going home.

Not taking any chances, Penner played his idol. It wasn’t wasted:

Abi voted: Penner
Lisa: Penner
RC: Pete
Artis: RC
Malcolm: Penner
Penner: Pete
Pete: RC
Skupin: Penner
Denise: Penner
Carter: RC
Kent: RC

I wrote down the votes as they were revealed at the end of the show because the pattern is fascinating.

Abi and Pete shared a smile as RC walked away.
Jeff sent them back to camp with a warning: “Three people got votes so it would appear that it is anybody’s game.”

The Story

It takes two, Skupin said and this season has really focused on the pairs:

The first one, outlined in the recap, is Macolm and Denise. Their story dominated the premerge and, while Denise’s immunity win still kept her in the viewers’ eyes, they faded in the background after the merge.
Tandang’s power alliance of Abi and Pete exchanged smiles at the result of the latest TC. They think they’ve gained control but this could be their last occasion to rejoice.
Then we have Carter and Kent who thought were in control but are now at the bottom of the Tandang totem pole just because of their fixation on Penner.
The next known pair was RC and Skupin and while the vote broke the pair, I believe it was broken the moment RC said she was 50-50 on flipping. Skupin couldn’t stand the idea of staying with Tandang so he ditched his partner and found a new pair. It wasn’t shown like so many other things about Skupin’s story but the vote pattern showed us exactly who is his new ally: Lisa. These two hopped on with Denise and Malcolm and managed to stay hidden within the split vote strategy, because of the split vote strategy. Can an alliance of four remain hidden long enough to gain control of the game? To answer this, we have to look at the story of the season:

The Rise of the Phoenix

Mike had a key quote at the beginning of the episode: “I fell in the fire this far in the game 24 seasons ago.” I believe this explains the editing choices made during the premerge and tells us the outcome of the season. In Australia, Mike had a tremendous premerge story, so good in fact that “Filipino Mike” could never top it so the editors didn’t even try, hiding him instead.

This way we can read Mike’s story as if it ended in the ashes of that fire on the banks of the Herbert river only to rise again on the same day, 24 seasons later. Mike is being portrayed as the Phoenix, the mythical bird, and he has now returned to life after falling in the fire. (We have seen quite often an eagle fly by during the season and that’s the link, the hint to Mike’s story.)

Mike’s strategy is to play with one partner: It just takes two. However, RC disappointed him when she was uncertain about the course of action. All she considered was going to Kalabaw but that would have put Mike and her at the bottom of their pecking order. We also saw that Lisa was disappointed with RC when she continued the fight with Abi: “We aren’t one big happy family.” Mike needed a partner, Lisa was worried about Malcolm’s offer so they probably agreed to team up. That’s what their votes told us. We will need to see how it’s explained down the road but I believe that, out of all the pairs that have been revealed, the most important one is being hidden…for a very good reason.

The Characters

Artis: This sour man is unpaired , editing wise, even if we know he is close to Pete and Abi.

Jonathan: His first “Punch” was only a jab: His play of the idol saved him for now but it has once more isolated him. The lone wolf is the ultimate “Free Agent” and which way he goes will decide the game…at least the play of the game because we have a pretty good idea that he won’t go with Kent or Pete’s sides. Jonathan can only find salvation, at least temporarily, by aligning with four of the five that voted against him this time! Another fascinating aspect of the last vote.

Pete and Abi: The rude pair should get what is coming to them shortly. I thought RC would outlast them but her story was transferred to Mike instead. The only question I have is whether this pair goes before or after the other failed pair:

Carter and Kent: They completely miscalculated because of their fixation on Penner. They could have been in charge of the alliance of 6 with RC, Skupin, Penner and Denise but they forgot two important factors: Denise wasn’t going in an alliance without Malcolm while Lisa has more strategic importance than they thought. The whole story tells us that Penner will get Kent first. Appropriately, Kent now has 2 strikes against him (2 TCs where he wanted Penner out but failed) so he should be punched out on his next swing of the bat.

Malcolm and Denise: Malcolm’s story was gravely hurt this week because of his close association with Pete. It would have been much better for him if the editors hadn’t picked him to tell the audience about the plan to boot either Penner or RC. The plot turned RC, a likable player, into a victim and winners are never shown booting “Victims”. They are always shown booting “Dumb Players” or “Villains”. Can Denise survive without her partner? Of course she could and has for 2 important rounds in Kalabaw but, editing-wise, she is linked to him so her story should fall short. It will be a great, an historic journey but it won’t give her the title of Sole Survivor even if we have heard that she’d be unbeatable in the Final Vote.

Lisa and Mike: This is the winning pair! Lisa had a tremendous episode and her interventions at TC show that she is a force to reckon with as far as the game’s strategy is involved. I think Penner will dearly regret not talking about strategy with her, She is also very well liked so she has it all as far as jury appeal is concerned. I’d certainly declare her the winner except for the manipulation we have observed in her partner’s edit. Her story is very straightforward, the only hidden aspect being her “church lady” character. Malcolm mentioned it but we haven’t heard her talk about religion.

The editors manipulated Mike’s story so much that it caught our eye before the merge, before we fully realized what angle they were using. The “Dog that Didn’t Bark” may have been used as a wink to Tina’s story but that was only a side effect. To have waited to show Mike until the day of his “rebirth” reveals a long term plan that can only lead him to victory. Another funny side of it is that, by his own admission, Mike is on a level playing field now with the rookies. He’s “lost” his veteran status that put such a huge target on returning players’ back. Now, can he convince Kent of this? I have to believe he does because Mike will Win Survivor: Philippines.

Here's my bit on Episode 7. This was an excellent merge episode as expected! It was great to see almost all of the remaining players pretty much highlighted and relevant to the episode (even Carter was a part of it, as he was an individual immunity winner) At times it felt like part 2 of the first episode, as there was lots of focus and narration from the returning players, as well as from our 2 celebrity players.

The recap basically gave us a synopsis of the three main storylines that began from each of the 3 starting tribes and are now still in play within the merged tribe. The Matsing story went from being the demised tribe, to a story of survival for Malcolm and Denise. The recap continues to highlight Malcolm and Denise, even when the aren't the top players in the coming episode. We are meant to remember their story and their connection - which is very good for them.

The Tandang story was that of the terrible 3 (Artis/Pete/Abi) vilifying Mike and RC. And we heard Artis' confessional about Mike doing nothing for the tribe. Not looking good for Mike and RC, but this also set up why we saw the various factions considering to team up Kalabaw members. The Kalabaw story was about Jeff Kent and Jonathan. Jeff's big decision was to keep Jonathan and "he ditched his plan"

RC - Sad to see her go. She was a great narrator and had an accurate depiction of what was going on in the game. The only thing is she needed to swallow her pride and appease former Tandang a bit more. She had a great edit (like many first jurors have gotten) and she appeared poised to have legs to go far, although I did note in my ep5 recap that she could also be set up to be booted at merge (good call ;) ). It was great to see her and Abi finally discuss their conflict at TC, even though it was not resolved. Hopefully this will continue to play out in Ponderosa (which are very enjoyable clips already, as RC is such a fan of the game and a good sport about losing)

Carter - Pretty much ignored until he one immunity. But kudos to him for outlasting in that challenge. Although once again, we see that he is relying too heavily on his only main alliance which is to Jeff. At this point it doesn't even matter if he might seem as a possible boot choice to threaten his alliance. If one of his alliance mates (assuming Denise might still be, while Jonathan is not) goes first, he won't have much left to bank on. He's tied his game too closely to Jeff, and as I'll state next, that might be the quickest of the stories to bring to a close.

Jeff Kent - Jeff's game has now been reduced to getting Jonathan out of the game. The episode started with him stating that he hoped he made the right choice keeping Jonathan (from the last Kalabaw TC) to him swinging back to gunning for Jonathan once the tribe's merged. We did not see this choice provoked, and gameplay-wise this was foolish. Why would he flush-out-the-idol/blindside Jonathan at a point in the game when he had his trust and could have possibility had Jonathan & his idol to shield you in an alliance. He's lost Jonathan and any chance at idol protection, leaving him as a part of strong pair tacked at the end of a shaky alliance. Doesn't sound like an ideal position to me. I think most viewers would have seen Jeff's behavior as erratic, or paranoid, at best. I think it was short-sighted and the beginning of his end.

Jonathan - We continue to see Jonathan narrating the events as he sees them, and he's seeing them pretty accurately. Of course, we the exception of not knowing whether to trust Jeff/Carter. Although now after the vote, he will be clear about it. His confessional about "not deserving to stay in this game" if mistakenly trusting them, may be all too prophetic for him. I think there may be a chance for Jonathan to redeem his a gameplay a bit. But can he do enough for endgame, likely not, his edit just isn't tied to much else than his battle with Jeff.

Mike - Mike came back on the radar for the merge episode. He got to tell us that he is surpassing his time he previously spent on Survivor in Australia. In confessional, he said we are all on equal playing field, setting the stage for the merge. And once again, it seems to me is narrating the story and not his story. We saw Mike "lie" twice in this episode. When he stated to Jeff that Pete had spoken 4 words to him, this simply was not true, as Mike was initially in an alliance with Pete. We also saw him NOT vote along with RC. Yes, we don't know for sure that he lied to RC about changing his vote to Penner. But once again we weren't shown Mike's viewpoint on making these decisions. Even when back on the radar, Mike's edit is missing something - not the attention production would give to a winner. Especially when we are hearing such thoughts from other key players.

Artis - Artis had a good showing at the Immunity Challenge and was shown during the discussion to bring in Jeff & some Kalabaw votes for RC & Jonathan. He gave us the quick recap of the voting plan after the Immunity Challenge, yet still it seems like he's on the outside looking in. He's not relevant to the story.

Abi - Very little seen of Abi, but she was around in the mix of things. It was apparent that she was able to sit pretty and let the guys in her alliance do the talking. Is she actually able to play it cool when she needs to. Well compared to what we've seen of her in past, she can. And she did her part in the Immunity Challenge. She may outlast her alliance, but she cannot win the game.

Peter - A mild episode for Pete. We got to hear another dig from about Mike not having a brain, and some narration around the merge feast. He also stated that RC would not go "Tandang strong" in an alliance and we saw him in scenes work with others to make sure the vote would be directed her way. While he comes across as cocky and not as likeable, we are not seeing him as a stupid player. He was correct about RC not being with former Tandang, and he was wise to point her out as a primary target to Jeff. We saw that he was pivotal to get some Kalabaw votes to split the voted and flush out the idol in the process, and it all came to fruition.

Malcolm - was highlighted as being a challenge winner in the recap. Will this continue with Individual Immunities? He was shown reconnecting with Denise, confirming to us that this alliance is still intact. He had the wherewithal to notice that Lisa caught wind of his idol and he had a direct discussion with her about it. While he was able to make it seem like it was heart to heart, his main intent was to secure his secrecy of the idol and it appears he did. He was also a key part of the discussion to do the split vote between RC and Jonathan. While it appears that Malcolm has his head in the game and that he has good strategic and social sense to play wisely, the question that comes up regarding him is: Will Malcolm try to be all things to all people? And will this be likely to cave in or take him to the end.

Denise - Again we hear in recap "every step is an opportunity to turn things around." This is the mantra to which we are to view Denise. And wouldn't that just be a lovely winning mantra too. We got to see Denise too with her Individual Immunity win. Not as prominent as others in this merge episode. But with her II win, and her moment connected with Malcolm, we are still aware that Denise is in this. Even though she was likely brought in on the plan about how the votes would be split between RC and Jonathan, she was out of the fray of what went down. We continually see flexibility in Denise her thoughts and actions. With first stating that she's stay with the 4 Kalabaw, to wanting to reconnect with Malcolm, to then making a decision to stick with the majority and keep herself safe and not a target. This is how you get to the end in Survivor.

Lisa - Interestingly, Lisa is now part of all 3 stories that were highlighted in the recap. She was part of the Tandang story as having been pulled into the original alliance replacing RC, and she had been vocal to have RC be the first to go (and she was). And as of tonight's episode, she is tied to the Jonathan/Jeff Kent story, as she too has an identity that could be revealed and Jonathan is aware of this. More importantly she is now tied to the Malcolm and Denise story. We heard Malcolm state his intentions to remain aligned to her and Denise till the end, as well as Lisa's perspective and astuteness to take it with a grain of salt. We also heard Malcolm say she would be hard to beat. AND we heard Jonathan state she's "a non-threatening person that could be sitting in the final 3" These are fantastic endorsements for her.

While I'm still betting on Denise, I have to give big props to Lisa. She certainly was the star of this episode. Not just with airtime and ties to storylines, but she she showed strength in her social game (loved her scene with Malcolm) and sound strategic perspective at the first TC for the merged tribe (to which she was sitting smack dab in the middle). She is clearly getting an edit beyond her star status (which is more than I could say for Jonathan, Jeff, and Mike). I would love to see Lisa win, and watch the finesse it would take her to get there.

I think Abi is a little b!tch and Artis and Pete are a$$holes, and I'd want to tear my hair out if any of those 3 foul balls won. But given the edit they're all getting, their villainous tendencies are being well exposed and none of those wastes of good oxygen are likely to get close to the final, and if they do we could be going to Sue Hawk city all over again at final TC.

Recap
After the two tribes merged, Tandang had a 7 to 4 advantage…
<Skupin: “I never made the merge before and, with numbers? Even better>
…While everyone was settling in, Lisa found Malcolm’s idol.
<Malcolm: “The church lady, who hopefully has a heart, found it.”>

With the tribes merged, Penner went to work, convincing Skupin and RC to turn on their old tribe.
But, unfortunately for Penner, Jeff wanted to take out the former winners.

At Tribal Council, Penner wasn’t sure of his alliance and decided to play his idol.
His instincts were correct: His alliance had turned and his ally RC was blindsided.

The recap was again manipulated to underline Skupin’s story. First, he told us once more that he is in a merge for the first time and then he is included in Penner’s allies. It was Penner, Skupin and RC that were trying to change the game but Jeff twarthed the plan. No mention of Lisa’s role or Malcolm’s or Denise’s. They somehow got included in the group that went after the returning players and the likable RC.

There Are Cracks

Penner went directly to Jeff for answers, telling him that he had blown it, that they had Pete if they had followed his plan.

Jonathan: “Does it hurt to get betrayed? Yes, of course it does. Why? Because you are left out of the secrets. There are secrets that are being talked behind your back. And the things that you trusted (a shot of Denise inserted right here) wasn’t true.”

Penner then asked Denise if she voted for RC.
She told him she voted for him.
He asked why.
She told him it was her own strategy adding: “It could blow up in my face.”
Jonathan dismissed her.

This is a terrible montage for Denise: She is on screen when Penner mentions she couldn’t be trusted, she mentions her plan could blow up in her face and she is seen somewhat stammering, marking her as one of the wishy-washy players that Kent blamed for the plan’s failure.

Jeff: “Penner’s played his idol, He doesn’t have anymore power that way. We are going to do our best to win the individual immunity or at least not let Penner have it…I gave up a lot pf power and authority when I voted with Tandang tonight.”

Ya think?

Then, Skupin had a talk with Jonathan: “I can understand how you feel but, I know you wouldn’t throw in the towel but don’t throw in the towel. There are cracks. There are cracks I am telling you. I am not going home after you…We just have to wait for somebody to screw up, waiting for a crack the get exposed. They are there.”

This little encouragement session defined Skupin’s game from the beginning and probably to the end. It didn’t explain his vote at the last TC but it certainly outlined his strategy. You don’t need to have control, you just have to wait for the craks to get exposed.

Jonathan: “I am not resigned to going home. There’s no quit in me but one way I can get myself further is to take my foot way off the gas pedal, climb into the backseat, put a blanket over my head and hope they forget that I am here for a while but they have betrayed me so all bets are off. I have no alliances…everybody is equal, they are all ready to die.”

Dangrayne – Day 20

Lisa had a confessional while Jonathan went fishing: “Everybody is so galvanized against Penner because they really don’t want returning players having a second chance, and they feel very strongly that they want Penner and Skupin gone first and second. For my game, I want to stay with Tandang but I have no qualms about making this battle to win a million dollars a little easier if it’s within my power. Once Penner and Skupin are gone, Jeff, Carter, Malcolm, Denise and I will then target the ones that everobody doesn’t like, Artis, Pete and Abi.”

Lisa then went to get tree mail with Jeff.

Kent: “Pete, Artis and Abi are a team and they think they are running the game. I’m fine to break that up. Lisa; she’s so naïve and so soft and so nice but we may be able to jump on board with each other and carry this thing into a flip scenario where we flip ourselves from the bottom to the top.”

As it always happens on Survivor, the Reward challenge was going to split the teams in just a perfect way to get that done:

The Reward Challenge:

We had on the Yellow Team: Lisa – Jeff – Penner- Malcolm and Denise.

On the Blue Team: Artis – Pete – Abi – Skupin and Carter.

As for Jeff’s comments, I noted: “Lisa, slow in the water…Skupin is stuck in the water…”

The Yellow team won the reward.

Camp

Artis: “Man! I wanted that reward but, on the flip side, I’m here for the million dollars, I’m still in the game. I’ve been eating beans and rice for
21 days. Beans and rice for 19 more days? Not a problem for me.”

Abi started talking numbers with Carter while Skupin was listening.

Pete: “Abi’s got a big mouth. When Abi leaks information, that’s very dangerous. So, she’s like a puppy you have to take care of.” He told her they could keep Skupin to go after Kalabaw. Then Pete’s confessional continued: “Abi is kind of immature. She thinks that everybody is out to get her and I wish I could vote her out but I know that if she is in a final three, she’s not getting any votes.”

The Reward

Denise: “It was a great group to have on the reward (one could say it was the group the producers wanted to see make it to the end!) They are a pretty positive group that has meshed together well. It was nice to be with them.”

Lisa had a thought for Skupin left back there with those that always find a way to be upset after every challenge.

Malcolm: “There is a bit of the good versus evil dynamics going on in the tribe right now. The evil three being Artis, Abi and Pete, and the rest of the tribe considers themselves the good guys!” Lisa talked about having to kiss the behind of the three while Jonathan said he hated that they acted like tyrants. Malcolm’s confessional continued: “It’s one thing that Penner is trying to take advantage of; turning the vote against one of the three instead of himself.”

Jonathan: “It’s easy for me who has his head on the chopping block to say: “You got to make a move.” But I am saying it and if it can save me for just one more vote, I’d appreciate it and I think I can help you guys get on control of the game.”

Lisa: “Cetainly, the idea of battling it out at the end with 4 other worthy opponents is such a noble choice but I am discovering that I am not just trying to get to the final 5; I’m trying to win which means I first need to get to the final 3 with as many people who aren’t going to get more votes than me as possible. That’s just how you get ahead. The same rules don’t apply in the game of Survivor as they do in real life.”

Unfortunately Lisa, this was a terrible moment to show your schemes. The group had just mentioned the good versus evil dynamics and then the nice, naïve player tells us she would go to the end with the evil ones. That could be enough to make her evil in the eyes of her future jurors and the audience.

Dangrayne – Day 22

Lisa: “I anticipate that, after Penner goes home, someone will wake up and realize that this is the time to do a 5-4 alliance.” (Denise, Malcolm and Peter were shown NOT waking up while this was being said. The one that was awake was…Skupin who was shown fishing at the time) “It makes more sense to me and Skupin to go to the end with Abi, Artis and Pete cause they have made so many enemies and they have made so many hot head emotional moves that have ticked people off. I have a plan that assures him (Skupin) that he does not need to scramble and make alliances with someone else that is going to promise him the world because I am going to promise him the universe.”

This is the key confessional of the season: Lisa, who couldn’t fit in at the start, thinking she wasn’t good at this game has proven she does fit in and is good at the game but she will give the game to Skupin. He won’t have to scramble which he never has, he just has to follow the game as it falls in Lisa’s control.

Lisa told Skupin about her plan which involved blindsiding Malcolm who had an idol. She had to convince Peter that Tandang should stick together and eliminate Malcolm.

Skupin (solo): “Lisa is now in this game to win it which is great because she is my closest ally out here. A lot depends on who wins immunity. The only way to be safe is to win immunity. You are going to see a dog fight out here today.”

Jonathan had a confessional after cutting in Lisa and Skupin’s conversation just as Michael was asking what happens if Penner won immunity: “I never won an individual immunity challenge, never won, so maybe it’s high time that Johnny did and stick it right in their damn faces and say for once in three times, I won individual immunity.”

It’s interesting to note that, even before the tribe turned to Michael as a potential boot candidate, the editors decided to make the audience think he could be going home. There was no need to set it up so early unless the editors wanted the viewers to think it shouldn’t be Michael, it should be one of the rude kids.

The Challenge

The first round was indeed a dog fight: Abi (!) led after the first obstacle but it soon came down to the men. Pete and Jeff claimed the first two spots while Jonathan barely inched out Michael for the third and final spot.

The puzzle looked like a race between Pete and Jeff much to the delight of Artis, Malcolm, Lisa, Carter and Abi who were shown encouraging the duo. Then, “out of nowehere” Jonathan took the lead and won! Michael, the one that had the most to lose if Jonathan won immunity, was not once shown rooting against him. The audience wasn’t supposed to agree with the ones encouraging Pete and Jeff so it’s important to note that Michael wasn’t included in that group. We only saw him scratching his head after Jonathan won immunity.

Jonathan was all smiles after returning to camp for his interview: “I don’t know what to say about that challenge. Maybe that was the best thing I ever did in my life!”

Malcolm: “Going into the challenge, all everyone said was “Don’t let Jonathan Penner win immunity. Of course, Murphy’s law states that has to happen so I don’t know why I am so surprised (he) won immunity today. It just threw everyone’s plans for a loop. Now we have to do a scramble to figure out who we are going to get rid of instead of Penner.”

That’s twice now that Malcolm was chosen as the spokesperson for the rude kids, the villains’ alliance. That’s not a good sign for him.

They all agreed that it had to be Skupin.

Jeff: “My vote is going to be for Skupin tonight because Penner kind of done the unthinkable. He’s won two challenges in a row: One on my team and one by himself so he just bought himself another three days of dead man walking.”

We saw Jeff telling Michael that he will be voted out.
Michael just listened while preparing the clam he had caught earlier.

Lisa told Peter that Malcolm had the HII and how she found out about it. She concluded that he had to be blindsided.

Peter: “That whole plan of getting rid of Malcolm and this information about him having the idol, I got blindsided by that because I actually kinda trusted Malcolm. This plan right now is Lisa’s plan. Is it a good plan? Is it a plan that is going to be effective because Malcolm does have an idol and Malcolm is playing two sides? I don’t know.”

So, instead of blindsiding Malcolm, Pete leaked the information to him.
It was ironic to see that Abi wasn’t the only one that had a big mouth! Pete, probably jealous that Lisa had a good plan, gave away much more vital information.

Malcolm: “Pete confronts me about the idol so my first thought is to lie, lie, lie but already my heart is in my stomach because the rumors are out there: It’s going to come out eventually that I do have the thing.”

Pete offered to save Malcolm by going after Jeff.

Peter: “Malcolm freaked out and that right there was enough of a reaction to just kinda know, to look in his soul and know that he doesn’t have the idol. So, I don’t know what Lisa is trying to pull here.” Pete’s ego is so big that he can’t admit that Lisa was right. They go back to the shelter and tell everyone to eliminte Jeff. “The vote right now is Jeff who was going to be second anyway after Penner just to keep Skupin as a swing vote. Right now, Jeff is going home. He’s a nice guy, he’s played a great game but he’s a big threat and I want him gone.”

Since Peter was in control of the majority and he wanted Jeff right after Penner, it seems that Michael was never really in danger of going home this time. It was just edited that way to make the audience think it was the consensus. That is another good point in Michael’s favor.

Pete then told Lisa he only informed Malcolm that they knew about his idol.

Lisa: “Well…Malcolm pulled Pete aside and Pete was thrown off guard and wasn’t very good at convincing him that his name wasn’t on the chopping block so everything just hit the fan.”

Peter after reassuring Lisa that she wasn’t in danger, had a confessional: “Playing the mastermind role is definitely hard work. It isn’t easy and you never really know you are the mastermind. It’s just at the last moment before tribal that you know if you have everybody and if it’s solid.”

The audience probably thought that it’s easier to be the mastermind when you are smart but it’s interesting that this candid admission matches well with the theme saying it isn’t good to be in control. The true mastermind is now Lisa and, even if she is good at it, she will find it hard to lead and win.

Jeff: “We were going to vote Skupin but now I find out they were gunning for me.”
He rallies Malcolm to the idea of eliminating Pete. A lot of scrambling ensued, showing that Michael was right all along: There are cracks! So many in fact that we were in for quite a Tribal Council.

Malcolm: “Everybody is going mad in the past hour. (He says something about Lisa and his idol but I can’t catch it) I will go to this vote with it in my pocket. If it seems close, I am playing it. My vote’s for Pete right now. That’s not the way I planned it at all. I was going for Skupin but it’s going to be hell tonight.”

Tribal Council

Jonathan reacted with a “right on” at RC’s entrance.
Asked about the feelings against returning players, Probst asked Michael if he felt pressure.
Michael said he did, adding: “When I came back to camp, it took a little bit of the pressure off when I heard some people talking
Malcolm laughed and explained that the little Texas girl threw him under the bus.
Lisa agreed, saying that the back up plan was Michael but that he had been a strong member of the Tandang tribe so she wanted to eliminate the biggest threat in the game, Malcolm.
Denise ageed with Jeff that Malcolm could be their 5th against Tandang. “Every crack is an opportunity.”
Pointing to Lisa, Jeff asked Abi if she was concerned to find out that one of your tribe members screwed the whole game up.
Abi said she had considered Malcolm as part of Tandang so it was “ludicrous”.
Lisa countered saying that they were willing to send Michael home.
Abi justified it by saying that Michael and RC were always on the outside. That Tandang “was always you, me, Peter and Artis.”
That shocked Malcolm so Abi belatedly tried to include him but Probst stopped her: “It may be too late for that, Abi.”
Abi told Lisa she had made a mistake because Malcolm was stronger in their alliance than Michael.
Lisa then talked about flushing out the idol. “I brought it up to make the Tandang stronger. I was playing both sides but my allegience was to the original alliance.”
Malcolm then simply pulled the idol, saying he would play it that night: “There’s too much chaos tonight, I am not going home.”
Jeff wanted to know if there were any other idols so Abi obliged (!)
Penner, the necklace around his neck, thought that this was awesome so he wanted to ask something: “It looks like there could be 6 people here ready to march forward in this game. That means keeping Skupin and I in that 6 at least for a while.”
Lisa made her own proposal to the people she had given her word, keeping the majority if they went with plan B.

Probst said there were two pitches but I wonder if Jonathan’s 6 weren’t at least partially the same 6 as Lisa’s. His vote for Abi sure made it look that way since it didn’t help Kent.

Pete thought they were coming after him while Kent said his name had been thrown around also as were Malcolm’s, Penner’s, Skupin’s, Lisa’s and Abi’s.
Kent concluded by saying it was pretty fun
Probst said this was the most interesting and complicated TC ever and, for once, he wasn’t only hyping.
It was time to vote and RC smiled when Penner walked by her.

Malcolm and Abi kept their idols so Kent was voted out.

After snuffing Jeff’s torch, Jeff said that this vote may go down as the biggest blown opportunity ever.

Even if the camera showed Malcolm, it wasn’t clear at that time who Probst was referring to but the audience would have preferred to see Pete get eliminated. Had Malcolm kept quiet about the idol and simply used it, Pete could have been going home.

The Story

It’s rare that the theme of an episode is so clear but the craziness that followed Jonathan’s IC win tells us that “There Are Cracks”. That theme leads us to believe that too much scrambling isn’t a good thing. It’s better to stay calm and wait for an opportunity to expose someone.

If so then the only two main characters shown remaining calm were Skupin and Denise, the two players that talked about cracks.

The Characters

Pete: No, being the mastermind isn’t easy when you are this dumb. I noticed though that Lisa wasn’t angry with him when she learned that he let it slip about the idol so he must have some redeeming qualities that the edit isn’t showing. From the viewers point of view the blown opportunity had to be missing the chance of eliminating him. Since Malcolm was the one shown regretting the result then we can say that the ground was set for us to say: “Malcolm was a good played but he blew it”…just like Kent blew it last week…just like Pete will probably blow it soon. All the ones who felt in control at one point will blow it if this season goes according to the themes we’ve outlined.

Since we don’t need to consider Artis, Abi or Carter anymore, that leaves us with the 5 players that have great stories. Stories that could lead anyone one of them to victory. Some may think that I’m trying to convince you that I am right regarding my views about the winner but I not even sure if I am right myself! I’m just trying to point out some manipulations in the story that make me think Michael will win,
So, with that in mind, let’s look at how I see the remaining players’ chances:

Malcolm: Not only did he regret the result of the vote, we have seen him twice now acting as the spokesperson for the “evil” alliance even if he sees himself being part of the good guys. Since he is a fan favorite, the editors are laying the groundwork for us to understand why he won’t win.

Jonathan: The dead man walking could have found enough of a repreive to make it all the way to the end. Maybe seeing him receiving advice from Skupin at the start of the episode was a way of showing that he was picking up the story that Mike had set up from the beginning of the season: Go with the flow and look for cracks. The editors also clearly connected him with RC, the first juror as if we were meant to think she’d vote for him in the end. His story could be to show that he has more power now without the idol than with it

Unfortunately, we also saw Jonathan trying to rally people for a last minute change of plan when we were being told that scrambling wasn’t the best thing to do. We need to keep our eyes on Jonathan even if this string of episodes looks like a final tribute to one of the great characters in the serie’s history. We all know that the former mutineer cannot keep his foot of the gas pedal!

Lisa: She certainly is becoming a power to be reckoned with. She played this episode as if she had all the cards in her hands, having not only a Plan A but also a Plan B, C, D and E. Her first thought was to accept the elimination of Jonathan and Michael which would have led to a final 5 with Malcolm, Denise, Kent and Carter. Then she wanted to go to the end with Abi, Peter and Artis so she targeted Malcolm, breaking her promise not to tell anyone about his idol
.
What I found most troubling for her chances was that she was heard saying that the same rules don’t apply in Survivor as they do in real life at the moment when everyone was talking about going with the “good” people. Her story lines are reaching their conclusions too early: She started as the outcast thinking she wasn’t good at this game but she has fit in well for a while now: She’s the church lady that everyone likes. Now we even see her as the mastermind that applies different rules to this game than in real life. The season could be the story of how the nice Lisa managed to win this horrible game by becoming ruthless but it looks more like she will overplay her hand, costing her the game. In addition, even if the plan failed because of Peter’s big mouth, the editors left in Probst comment that Lisa had screwed the whole game. But then again, he was talking about Abi’s game so maybe that’s not so bad!

Denise: After a great premerge story, it looks as if Denise’s story is being ignored. It’s not necessarily a bad thing since she is still connected to the themes of the season by her intervention at TC but I didn’t like that the editors showed us Denise when Kent mentioned wishy-washy players, when Jonathan said he couldn’t trust “them” anymore and when she stammered to find an explanation for voting against Jonathan. Her great story could blow up in her face. Lisa said people had to wake up but Denise was shown sleeping at that moment, something I consider a clear hint that she won’t find her way to victory.

Michael: When Lisa said people had to wake up, Michael was the only one shown in action, doing a basic Survivor task: Fishing. His endeavour earned him a clam but could be foreshadowing that he will claim the big prize. His story continues in a straight line from his opening confessionals: He has followed the pace of the game, at first only concerned to help his tribe win challenges. Then, at the merge, he had a rebirth and, since then, he hasn’t scrambled needlessly; he simply waited for the cracks to get exposed. No one complained about Michael after the reward loss even if he could have been held responsible so that could be another indication that his postmerge story is truly a rebirth.

It really looks like Michael will keep his cool all the way to the end, following his closest ally as she takes control and pays for it in the end when she does hand him the “universe” she promised him.

I love your analysis and assessment, very well done. From what I saw though, it looks like Jonathan's comeback story. I think he's going to align with Skupin and they'll go as far as they can together. I don't think its a tribute or anything. The recap was all about Skupin, and Probst said, "at the merge, Penner went to work" Probst was giving Penner all of the credit, didn't even mention Skupin as doing anything worthwhile. I think both returnees will go very far, I just think the story is Jonathan's comeback story. He has had an extremely amazing edit.

I meant the recap was all about Penner...so sorry lol

Welcome aboard mrtricky,

You certainly could be right but I want to point out that the recap had to mention Penner: He was on the chooping block, he scrambled and he played the idol.

Skupin, on the other hand, could have been totally ignored but he wasn't: Reaching the merge was seen through his eyes and he was part of Penner's allies even if he voted to eliminate Penner. Now that's the kind of manipulation that attracts my attention.

But remember at the tribal council, Penner was already pandering to the jury and as he walked by RC they showed her smiling to him, as if for the rest of the game she'll be impressed by his game, made it seem like she'll vote for Penner in the end. They didn't have to show that scene at all either, but they did. There is tons of manipulation going on around here lol its pretty crazy. How about a final 3 with Skupin AND Penner? that would actually work due to some of the evidence from this past episode.

Yes, I wrote about the two exchanges between Penner and RC but winks and smiles are terribly difficult to interpret. They always showed the jury smiling when they entered the TC area and saw Terry Dietz wearing the Immunity necklace.

So, what does this connection mean? 3 possibilities:
- Maybe RC votes for Penner.
- Maybe the two vote together (for Skupin? Lisa?) and influence others during FTC.
- Maybe nothing.

One thing I didn't mention was the animal imagery of the "Kalabaw", the water buffalo, being "stuck" in the mud. The image certainly implied that a Kalabaw was going home (even if water buffaloes enjoy the mud) but does it mean that the whole Kalabaw tribe is doomed? I don't know but the blown opportunity applies to that tribe so, if it relates to him at all, it can't be good for Jonathan.

What I do know is that the 2 dolphins swimming together are an indication of the importance of pairs. Which one though? Denise and Malcolm or Lisa and Skupin. Since Lisa dominated the latest episode, I think the future is brighter for the Tandang pair.

They're also setting up possibly that Lisa ends up letting her heart get in the way. She is a christian woman, she's a nice lady. Next episode it looks like she breaks down due to the mean bullies attacking her for exposing everything at the tribal council. I think over time she'll start to realize that Tandang is imploding, there will be no hope for that tribe and that she doesn't deserve to win by how she is playing, so she'll keep around the good guys. It just feels that way to me. And those two dolphins, it did show how important pairs are. But Malcolm's game is now history, his story is coming to an end because everyone knows he has an idol now, he's in worse shape than Penner now. He NEEDS to win immunity now or play the idol because as soon as he plays the idol he's in trouble. So I think Denise will be more in the forefront now and Penner will take over Malcolm's story as the new pair....So Denise and Penner and Lisa and Skupin can end up being the powerful pair. Or maybe the two dolphins mean that Penner and his necklace are a long term pair. Either way I think a Kalabaw is winning simply because did you see the yellow school of fish break apart in the ocean? Tandang is the yellow tribe that will break apart..Animal imagery tells it all.

Will break apart? Tandang already broke when they eliminated RC and from that school of fish emerged the 2 dolphins. We could go on and on about the animals but the best imagery is the following:

Yellow cobra = Peter
Spider = Lisa
Eagle => Phoenix = Michael.

Something tells me this season will end with a ton of disappointment. Like the wrong person will win or something.

I guess that depends on one's definition of "wrong". I like a number of people this season, Malcolm and Jonathan especially. I think that they've played the best game so far. I wouldn't consider Lisa or Denise to be "wrong" winners though.

Denise has certainly proved to be a very resilient person, weathering the decimation of Matsing, and then of Kalabaw pre-merge. She has been playing a very under-the-radar game after the merge, but I assume that this is only because it's her best game plan right now. She's not in the line of fire, and she doesn't need to make a big move (yet).

Lisa, on the other hand, is making waves, sometimes unnecessarily so. The plan to boot Malcolm is premature and doesn't seem to be well thought-out. On the other hand, it is making the game more exciting to watch, especially for a casual viewer like me.

A "wrong" winner to me, would be Artis, Carter, or Abi, who have been completely under-exposed, or are just plain unlikeable.

Well said, SpotTheDifference!

I think there are several players still left, some more likeable than others, that can merit a win - and still leave viewers satisfied with the season. And we still have a bunch of episodes left!

Regarding Denise, yes, she has proven to be very resilient. And she may be (arguably) the best edited under-the-radar player the show has seen. With the demise of Matsing and her assimilation into the nuKalabaw, the audience has been privy to see why Denise would choose an UTR strategy and be rewarded for it. Plus, if you add in the factors that she is both a good physical and social player, then UTR is totally working for her game at this point - as the target can be put on other good physical and social players.

Regarding Lisa, she does seem to be making waves. Is it unnecessary though? Sure, the plan was premature, but even she knew this (as she intended to wait on the plan to boot Malcolm, but Jonathan's II win changed that). Her plan hastened, and she didn't back down. In Survivor seasons past we've seen many others not make their "big" move and miss their opportunity to advance in the game. I believe it was well thought-out for Lisa, as she could afford to come onto the radar as she wasn't a threat, and in the process she knew she'd be taking the target off her closest ally, Mike.

Lisa has also stated that she is a huge fan of the game. We saw that she was playing UTR initially (or even as stated by Mike, not playing at all) Although she did this, it was not as strategy, but as a weakness in her, as she was questioning her ability to play this game. Unlike Denise, Lisa feels she has to prove something to get her not only into top 5, but to have something to warrant her the win. We can only wait and see how this will immediately pan out for her. But if she does get to the end, she now has some fodder to contrive her story regarding the breakdown of those events into one of her "big" moves in the game.

I'm with you, Spot. I don't think we can have a wrong winner this season. We know that Abi, Artis, Carter and Peter won't win. I even think that Peter, had he been the winner, could have been edited as a good winner. All he would have needed was a few more "Abi's a goat" confessionals, a good premiere and a few examples of RC playing too hard.

LAST EDITED ON 11-12-12 AT 01:30 AM (EST)

IMO, we can have a wrong winner, if Mike wins. He's too under-edited, his story is starting a bit too late, and all we've heard about him is how bad of a player he is. However, if Denise/Lisa/Malcolm/Jonathan ##### people off towards the end game, I would expect Mike to absorb some of the "against" votes at the FTC. At the moment though, he and Carter are extremely good choices for the made-the-F3-but-got-zero-votes edit of the season.

If you are going by quantity rather than quality then you should be much more worried about Denise who has been clearly under-edited sionce the merge. A great story premerge that had to be told is getting completely dropped by the editors.

Great to see you sharing, mrtricky!

Yes, Jonathan, has been getting a great edit. And him surviving the past 2 episodes is really giving reason to re-assess his chances to make it to the end. I find it tough reading Jonathan's edit, as he is both a returning player and such an articulate narrator that he will always be shown. That being said, I do feel he is getting more manipulation in his edit now that the tribes have merged (pre-merge - his was such a straight-forward story). In terms of edit he's going to be a tough read, so I think I'm going to continue to revert to gameplay perspective as to what his chances are at making it to endgame. I mean who in their right mind would take Jonathan to the end?!

I think Jonathan is getting the "doomed hero" edit. He's likeable, he's strategic, and he's proven to be good at challenges. He also probably won't win unless he wins all immunities until the F3. I think we're meant to root for Jonathan, and give him the fan favorite vote (which he definitely deserves from the way he's playing the game).

I think Jonathan probably doesn't make it to the end, but I also think that the editors want us to think that big time. Malcolm I thought was going to get the fan favorite vote easily, but lately he's just a narrator for the "bad people". So to viewers that is bad and now I think the only one that can get fan favorite is Jonathan which I hope happens because he deserves to win something. Everyone i've talked to loves Jonathan, and I think that was the editors intention all along. Have you noticed that he hasn't gotten any negative confessionals from anyone? That's suspicious! But he has no final three ties which gives away that he doesn't win. Although that look at RC at the jury is interesting but it was probably all fodder I think we can all agree on here though, that Jonathan is the ONLY castaway left this season that would sweep a jury vote win, correct? The ONLY one that would get all the votes...Thats why ladies and gentleman, he does not win we should all mourn appropriately.

Jonathan receied negative confessionals after making that deal for reward. Both Carter and Katie complained about giving up the rice because Jonathan couldn't catch fish.

And, at this moment, Jonathan could get all the votes because he's been the target. He'd lose votes if he got in control and started targeting people.

but they'd still vote for him because he even said he doesn't have alliances anymore. So they have to expect being voted out by him, not being betrayed by him. When you're a lone wolf who cares if you vote someone out? everyone is against you, so when you vote them out, they should respect you for getting to them first....not like Lisa who is in an alliance with everyone...Jonathan is just doing what Michael is now, he's the one that is really going with the flow of the game, Jonathan stole Michael's story.
Also, in that fishing scene, i think it was great for Jonathan because it showed that he was the only one working, the only one being a loyal tribe member by trying to feed everyone. Katie, Carter and Kent werent doing anything, why should they complain? they should go out there and try to find fish if they want to complain..Showed what a team player Jonathan actually is.

"they should respect you for getting to them first"

They never do.

I believe that we wouldn't have seen the failed fishing trip if Jonathan had been our winner. There was also Denise's confessional that was an indirect shot at Jonanthan: "This gives us motivation for the next challenge" she said but they lost that challenge.

Another thing about Jonathan real quick. Look at his confessionals. He gets the close up shot of his face while hes' talking, and look how he's sitting. The camera falls back and you see him sitting with his feet crossed over and he's narrating the story as well as being a central figure within it. You know who else got that treatment? Boston Rob. In every confessional he was posing like he was the king on his throne and he was narrating the season story. So it makes sense for Jonathan to win. And also, I think that before production started that they had every intention to expect Jonathan to make the final 3. Out of all the returnees he's put on a tribe that he can control compared to Matsing and Tandang that were full of rough personalities. They didnt' bank on Kent being so anti-returnee though. From the get go they were trying for Penner to win, by giving him tribemates like Carter that he can manipulate and look at last week's challenge. He had his back up against the wall yet they provide a puzzle challenge? That's his go to challenge. Just saying that Penner was the chosen one and thats probably why they are making Skupin invisible because he's the returnee that got the success yet didnt earn it like Jonathan would have.

I thought it was very interesting when Jonathon talked to Lisa about what the audience would like. He was absolutely right! It was the first time I ever remember the editors including a comment about the viewers although surely it's not the first time players have talked about it. I don't know what it means, but I did find it fascinating. I was a little surprised and disappointed that Lisa voted for Penner despite all the 'seeds' he planted with her and how rude Abi continues to be to her.

Interesting, persuasive & seemingly effective, but step back away & look at it. Penner was trying to be a "Director" for a teenage Blair. Lisa is a 49 year old mother of 3, I think kids are 20-23, & she has strong Christian values. She has also written numerous, what I'd loosely call "self-help" books. She's aware of what Penner was actually trying to do, & that any 2 of the mean 3 would be more beatable by her in final 3. I was surprised she didn't jump ship, but it may turn out to be a great move, earning points with Tandang members on the jury, which should be 4 - 5 of the 9 member jury, possibly plus Malcolm, in the jury. Penner might have done better with the truth ... what is best for you that doesn't violate your beliefs, along with Tandang not loyal to RC, nor Skupin, nor likely to be with her. I think Lisa could have done just as well if she had gotten Tandang to vote out Carter, keeping the older members of Kalabaw plus Malcolm with Denise as possible allies with her & Skupin.

Recap
From the beginning of the game, Lisa was an outcast.
<Lisa: “Maybe I am not able to play this game.”>
As of the merge, only 2 people had discovered her secret; Penner and Skupin who had just become her biggest ally in the game.

Lisa and Mike’s only problem was that everyone wanted the returning players out next.

At the immunity challenge…Penner won immunity and Lisa decided to make a big move, attempting to save Skupin…by throwing Malcolm and his idol under the bus.
But, at a crazy Tribal Council, Lisa took a lot of heat for her big move and it became clear there were two major alliances each with their own immunity idol.
In the end, Tandang stayed strong and got their way.

The recap clearly defined the two main characters for this season: Lisa and Mike.

The Fulcrums

Night 22

Mike: “Tribal Council was the most amazing experience because Lisa made her big move to save me. So, from going from: “It’s you”, to: “It’s not you” in five minutes is a sense of relief. The game could have been flipped around with 1 or 2 more votes for Pete but whether Pete went or whether Jeff went, they are two of the most outspoken people about getting rid of returning players. Having one of them go is a win-win for me either way.”

It’s a good sign that Mike received the first confessional after that “historic” TC as it was called. It also shows that Mike already has his eyes on flipping the game against the former Tandang. He isn’t clueless afterall! Now that he has gotten rid of the most vocal rival to returning players and that the other is in danger he could be in a truly win-win situation.

Abi thought Skupin had voted against her but Jonathan set her straight; it was his vote and he did it because he was PO’ed.

Jonathan: “That was the most incredible Tribal Council I have ever been a part of. It was crazy! I don’t even know what the hell happened.” Carter soon told him that it was his vote against Abi that sunk Jeff. “I’m the one who blew it?” asked Jonathan. His confessional went on: “There was no plan; nobody knew what was going to happen. So, did my vote screw it up? Even if I had voted for Pete, it would have only tied it up so, I voted for Abi and no we will see where I stand. I’m dead man walking anyway.”

We then saw Lisa apologizing to Malcolm who was extremely gracious, understanding her game decision.

Lisa” “I tried to make the big move, tried to play the game like a real survivor and it’s just not me. I lied and I betrayed and I broke promises and Malcolm has been full of grace and mercy. I love this game but I think it’s too big for me. It’s bigger than me.”

Mike talked about a win-win situation, Jonathan said he blew it while Lisa said she isn’t good enough for the game. So? Mike wins? It would be nice if it was that simple. It’s great for Lisa’s chances that no one blamed her. She is still a “suspect” that we have to consider in this whodunnit of a season!

Jonathan: “There are five original Tandang and, if they vote together, I am done...” These words were accompanied by a shot of Jonathan dropping the machete, a sign that he will fail

“...I’ll probably go home at the next immunity if I don’t win it. But, there’s been such division, so many cracks in that five and their identities as people is so varied: You have two parents who are trying to play a straight up, almost Christian game in Lisa and in Skupin and then you have three incredibly tight players who are playing some other game; what I call a bully game. My hope is to play on those divisions, to appeal to Skupin’s and Lisa’s hearts.”

Right here, we heard Jonathan telling Lisa she made great moves, unprecedented in the history of Survivor. People were starting to admire her and love her, he added. Jonathan then psychoanalyzed Lisa, the child star and she thought he knew her.

The camera angle put us, as viewers, directly on Jonathan’s shoulder as he looked and talked to Lisa. It was a clear example of the Jonathan camera: What he says, what he sees in people is exactly how the editors want us to see those people. Like in Cook Islands; Jonathan’s point of view was the one that mattered then and so is it now.

Lisa: “I know Penner is always scrambling to find a way to stay but he struck something really, really deep, this internal conflict…My whole life has been based on public perception…If I do the wrong thing, will I still be ok? If I am not liked…can I survive, not being, little miss Perfect?”

The Challenge

Abi wasn’t picked by either side and she didn’t get to pick a team to root for and follow on reward.
Jonathan was the one to figure out the challenge, looking for all 4 bags of balls at once. It enabled his team to start shooting before Artis could make his way on the course. Jeff certainly wanted us to know that Penner’s strategy had been the key for the red team’s victory.

The Reward

Penner, Denise, Malcolm and Pete were off to donate school supplies and toys to a local village.

Jonathan: “We came in carrying a crate of toys and school supplies…amazing kids...This reward is extraordinary…It seems to be the happiest community I ever walked into.”

Malcolm: “Right after I graduated, I taught elementary school in Micronesia for a year…I enjoy working with kids…This means so much more to me than pouring drinks to girls in bars. It really made reconsider what I have been doing with my life.”

Jonathan: “The food was great. Amazing break from the game although I hope we can talk strategy over a beer or two.”

As far as strategy went, we only heard them mentioning that they wanted to have Skupin and Lisa with them.
Denise said they had to be gentle with them while Malcolm added that Skupin was treated horribly by “them”.

Carter, strangely, had the confessional to tell us about their strategy: “Right now, the lines have been drawn and it’s former Tandang versus everyone else but last night at Tribal Council, they made a mockery of Skupin. I feel like he’s been mistreated and they mistreated Lisa so we are trying to get Skupin and Lisa in with us because they are going to play the biggest role in deciding which alliance moves on and which starts getting picked off.”

Camp

Pete: “Losing a challenge like this is awful. It’s really demoralizing. I need that energy. At least, Lisa doesn’t really know what’s going on after tribal Council where she got obliterated and Skupin: It’s ironic how someone I wanted to get rid first or second, now I am forced to work with. We need the majority right now…We are back to Tandang. They are going to trust us more than they trust Penner or anybody. So getting them close and keeping them close is definitely what we are trying to do and making them feel comfortable.”

Abi must not have gotten the message because she was still after Lisa whom she accused of being gullible and naïve (!)

Artis, in his confessional, echoed what the audience thought: “Abi is such a loose canon. She thinks she knows so much about the game and so much about people in general. I don’t know who told her that but she needs to shut up before she screws everything all up.”

Lisa: “Very interesting how things split after the challenge today. My thought was that we really had some time. We could reevalute and stay solid, the Tandang 5 but I get back here to the island and Abi was terrible. Maybe it makes sense to go with the other alliance but I made this grand stand at Tribal Council about having loyalty to Tandang and Skupin so, to flip to Kalabaw, looks from the outside as really awful but in time it probably makes more sense. I don’t know what to think now.”

The Immunity Challenge

Like Jeff said, it was a two horse race. Skupin and Pete were going very quickly.
But then: “Disaster; Pete loses two balls on that one.” (!)
Skupin won immunity.
“Way to go, Skupin” said Malcolm.

Artis received the editors’ kiss of death type of confessional: “At tonight’s tribal council, unless something goes wrong, we can get Penner out and we can actually, for the first time in a long time, come back to camp, take a deep breath…we can relax for a while.”

Yes, Artis, we all realized then that you would be having plenty of time to relax!

Day 25

Jonathan: “I didn’t win that immunity challenge so I know my days are numbered if I can’t put something together. The problem is the numbers. I need 5 votes if I want to have even an ice cream’s chance in hell of staying in the game.”

Abi: “I wish I would be voting off Mike today but we need him for the numbers. Penner is a bigger threat but Mike is really annoying. Penner is actually charming, a little too smart for his own good so time for him to go home.”

I wonder if this wasn’t taken from last week’s time frame. It wasn’t needed back then because the editors wanted us to think Mike could go but why would Abi say she’d like to eliminate Mike now? Had she said: “I wish I could vote off Mike but he won immunity” that’d be one thing but she says it’s the numbers that were preventing her from doing so. Last week, the numbers saved Mike, not this week.

In the woods, Denise was explaining her thoughts to Malcolm and Carter, saying that Abi would never give the idol to Artis.

Denise: “Right now, I have my alliance with Malcolm and the former Kalabaw tribe; Carter and Jonathan. The goal tonight is to get rid of one of the original Tandang members. Break that little empire up and then continue to just turn this game. The plan very much hinges on Skupin and Lisa. If we can’t get the numbers; Jonathan is going home.”

Jonathan was then seen relaxng in a cove, talking to Lisa. He described himself as a storyteller and asked her what she thought would be the story of this season.
“Who are the good guys and who are the bad guys? Who are the underdogs? Who is the audience going to be rooting for?” He went on to say the audience would like Lisa but “wouldn’t be happy to see that you are helping these three guys…I hope you and Skupin do the right thing…You might be the fulcrum character.”

Since this is the first time a Survivor talks directly about the story being told, I think we should look carefully at what he just said: The audience will want Lisa and Skupin to do the right thing BUT ONLY SKUPIN DID! Lisa voted to eliminate Penner and even if her parchment had multiple little hearts, maybe that is the key to determining that Mike wins over her. On the other hand, the editors presented this episode as Lisa’s emancipation, the time when she liberated herself from the rude members of Tandang and many in the audience will not have even noticed that she voted against Penner. It’s that kind of manipulation that we usually look for in a winner’s favor but then they let us see her vote. Lisa may be the fulcrum of the story but not of the game, at least not this time.
One thing we can clearly get out of this is that Penner’s role is that of a narrator, a storyteller.

Lisa: “I like Jonathan, I learned so much from him out here but man! My head is spinning. I still want to be loyal. But is that the old Lisa?”

Jonathan: “I am planting seeds with Lisa because I am playing my ass off here but I cannot panic. I have to be calm, cool and collected. I hope that I got through to her. Whether that changes her vote, I don’t know but I only need one of them: Either her or Skupin.”

Jonathan told Mike that he was the fulcrum vote and he was. Does that foreshadow that Jonathan will be the vote that tip the scale in Mike’s favor in the end? On the other hand, Jonathan did say that with Mike’s vote they were sure to make it to the F5: If we have learned one thing from Survivor editing is that they probably won’t make it both to the F5! Which one? The storyteller or the fulcrum? I’d have to go with Mike.

Mike: “Jonathan is interested in creating something but Lisa and I agreed on day 1 that we will always tell each other the truth. She orchestrated a pretty big move the other day in order to save the Tandang alliance, in order to save me so, I want to play this game with Lisa. I have to make sure that, if I make a bold move, she’s firmly on the side that I am choosing.”

Mike then asked Lisa: “How can we stay loyal to people that aren’t loyal to us?”
Lisa said that the bigger picture would show that she was swinging both ways, being indecisive.
Mie simply said that the bigger picture was that they had an alliance to the very end.

That sentence, that connection, coming after all this talk of storytelling and fulcrums, should put them both firmly in the picture during the last Tribal Council, facing the jury.

Lisa: “From the beginning, I’ve been thinking that the most important thing was to keep the Tandang numbers strong because I want to stay loyal to Tandang…But if Tandang isn’t loyal to me, am I being exactly what Abi accuses me of being? Gullible and naïve.”

Tribal Council

Lisa said that the fallout of the previous TC was mostly internal (which shocked Kent). She added that people were graceful to her.
After Abi asked her if she had shown grace, Lisa said she felt more grace from the people that she was against.
She told Jeff it was as ign of maturity and experience, adding: “I believe there are more Survivor fans on the other alliance.”
That really irritated Abi which Jeff noted.
Abi simply said she thought she showed grace as well.
Artis said he wasn’t surprised that it was still Tandang versus Kalabaw because Tandang had one of the most powerful tribes in Survivor history and that it was playing out as it was supposed to play out.
Denise countered by saying things could shift.
Artis wanted to be clear that he knew he could be blindsided.
Asked about Mike’s necklace, Jonathan introduced the theme of fulcrums to TC, saying someone could tip the scale one way or the other.
Mike described the feeling of having immunity which he never had in 12 years. He added: “I originally came out for the money but then the game got bigger than the money.” He concluded by saying he loved Lisa’s move.
Lisa said that the game was bigger than her, meaning she had to play with her heart.
Jonathan told Jeff he appreciated someone that played the game.
Denise didn’t know if the numbers would shift but she was hoping that everything gets turned upside down.
Abi said that Tandang had the numbers but that she wasn’t really sure about Lisa.
Jonathan found that Abi’s remark was incredible, Peter scratched his head and Jeff said: “Wow!”
Lisa said those words should force her to make a decision.

Skupin and Lisa were the last ones shown in the voting booth as if they were both deciding the outcome.

When Jeff mentioned the 5th vote against Artis, RC was shocked, Jonathan was relieved, Skupin was repressing a smile, Abi was fuming and Denise was winking at a smiling RC.

Jeff concluded the evening saying: “Once again this game just turned.”

The Story

With Jonathan’s talk of fulcrums, it’s interesting to note that the episode had three fulcrums: One for the audience, one for the story and one for the game.

Jonathan was the audience’s fulcrum: We saw things through his eyes and it was a pivotal episode. The good guys versus the bad guys, IN JONATHAN’s eyes, were the players we cheered or jeered.

Lisa was the story’s fulcrum: This episode was about her emancipation from Tandang EVEN if she voted with them. There is a feeling of unfinished business here that is troubling. Will Lisa get as much grace this time or will she be seen as the indeciseve player she herself described? For one thing, Abi won’t be showing anymore grace!

Mike was the fulcrum of the game: His vote decided the outcome of the Council but does it relegate him to the role of spectator at the end or has he just assured himself of a spot in the Finals? The big picture, we were told, included an alliance between Mika and Lisa to the very end.

The Charaters

Malcolm: In this most important episode, Malcolm was reduced to his true role in this season: The likable young man on a “coming of age” journey. He had no confessionals leading up to TC and Jeff didn’t turn to him either.

Jonathan: He is seen as a threat, a smart player that could indeed win this whole thing but Jonathan feels more like the narrator and the deciding voter instead of the winner. Did he blow it? Story-wise, to me, it felt like he did. All his talk are about surviving one more Coucnil isn’t bad but, with such a large role, we should be hearing him talk about what he thinks he’ll need to do to get to the end.

Denise: The edit could still be pointing to her victory but having no confessional during what will certainly be the most interesting reward of the season is very troubling. Also, her strategic confessional was really only narration as she wasn’t shown acting on what her alliance needed: She wasn’t shown talking to either Lisa or Mike. The story isn’t being presented from her angle anymore. When Jonathan asked who were the underdogs this season, Denise’s name would have popped up first during the premerge but not anymore. The Act I underdog has become just another player in Act II. We can’t forget that Russell and Malcolm both said she wins it if she makes the Final 3 but that sounds more like doubt for somebody else right now. But the game’s turns are part of her theme, a new occasion for her so she still has to be considered a front runner.

Lisa: It’s hard to say she will not get enough votes when she is received with so much grace by those she throws under buses. She tried to play the game like a real Survivor and she said it was simply not her. That and her confessional after her little session on “Dr” Penner’s couch tells us she is clearly the journey player, the one that will “learn more about (herself) in those 39 days than in 39 of (her) previous 49 years”. We can’t rule out all the manipulation to make this episode look like Lisa’s emancipation though and she is clearly the one the audience is supposed to root for. So, I’d say she’s the favorite to win but I won’t be putting money on her.

Mike: He said it: If Pete or Jeff had left, it was a win-win situation for him so, with Pete’s imminent departure, we should feel more confident about his chances of winning. With Lisa’s stock rising once more in this episode, he still must be seen as a longshot but he was the deciding factor in this vote and he got nice reactions from the jury even if they can’t be sure it was his vote! It’s remarkable that someone who was supposed to simply go quietly with the flow of the game, made the biggest move up to now and it wasn’t even noticed! When Lisa made her big move, the “poop hit the fan”. When Mike entered the waters, we didn’t even hear a splash. A rip entry gets maximum scores from the judges!

Carter, strangely, had the confessional to tell us about their strategy

Strangely is right, it was almost jarring hearing game thoughts coming out that mouth.

Good catch on the out of place Abi confessional about her wanting to vote Mike out. Although, we're talking Abi here, only her idol matters.

Nice job michel, you are now a Fulcrum agent.

What a lovely bunch of coconuts.

If Penner's role is that of a storyteller, then that is very very good for his chances in the game simply because he's been the story teller ALL season long. So for them to use him in that role the whole season up to this point, who would take his place? No one else has had that role, everyone else has just been a supporting character in the story. Its been told from his eyes, why would they use him in that kind of role only for him to be gone the last few episodes of the season? Then who is the narrator after that? Tells me Penner lasts a long time.

And also, you could also interpret the whole Abi/Skupin coconut to head scene as that of Abi later on being responsible for Skupin's ouster...one could interpret it that way as well...They didn't have to show that.

If Abi would be responsible for Skupin's ouster, they would edit her in a more positive way to show she has the ability to perform moves like this. She's been edited as the most bats**t crazy person in years, if not ever, and she wasn't given the credit when RC was booted so what would make anyone think that she would ever get the credit if Skupin should happen to get booted?

As much as I love watching Penner on TV, it'll take a miracle for him to make the final jury and I just see too many strong players ahead of him to let it happen.

Not long for the game, based on the edit: Carter, Pete, Abi

In between, probably outlasts the first three mentioned: Penner, Malcolm

Likely in final 2 or 3 (still unknown which it is): Lisa, Denise, Skupin

Thing is, Penner has been a fan favorite since he first showed up in Cook Islands. And basically the reason for that is not that he is the greatest player or anything like that, it is that he is a great character and knows how to play to the audience.

Follow.

Jonathan Penner is an industry insider, television is his business, it is his career, in a sense it is who he is. And he is relatively good at it, but the main point I would make here is that it makes up who he is, how he thinks anyway in his daily life.

He had an adult acting career that commenced about the time Lisa Welchel's child actor career concluded. Outside of that acting career, he has had a writing and sometimes producing career as well. This is his industry.

I'm not saying he plays to the editors or producers or anything like that, only that he understands playing to the audience, it is his nature, it is how he operates on a daily basis in his professional career anyway. That is why he is loved, why the Survivor audience loves him, it is his nature to play to the audience.

Follow s'more.

The last three episodes he has been the ultimate underdog. They were always gunning for him. He played his HII to save himself once, he won II to save himself again, he finally broke the Tandang control of the game to save himself a third time.

Regardless of whether he wins or loses the game, Penner weathered the Survivor perfect storm. It has been a great story arc, but that is all, there are more stories to come.

He has a new story arc now..he has been accepted into the "good guy" grouping and they've taken control. it'll be fun to see what happens.

Storytellers often don't win the game, and Penner has been shown to be fighting for his survival instead of showing potential end-game play. I believe that if Penner makes the final jury, we'd hear a lot more strategy from him and his thoughts on how he'd work the jury. Instead, I think all his talks with Lisa is, in a way, preparing HER for the jury speech, whether she's successful in winning or not.

They've shown him close to Skupin and Lisa though, those are the people with which he is close to. And in the early episodes he said he would love to have Carter at the end with him, and Carter is still there, so he had a little of that. He also in previous episodes said, "I am playing to their heart strings" trying to convince them to have him stay by using the emotion against them, and he has been in major focus every episode. They only show the people that are truly relevant, and look at the last couple episodes, more and more people have been getting less confessionals. Malcolm's story is ending, he hasn't been a major focus in awhile...normally if a person is about to get voted out, they'd start distancing themselves from the story.

Troyzan had a disproportionate amount of attention placed on him as well because he made for a good story and he also had good relationships with several of the people that did make it to the end, but he didn't last to the end himself.

plus, yeah his premerge story was rather weak because he just found the idol, and didnt' have to be shown due to them never losing, then Kalabaw started to lose and then they go into the merge down numbers. Then Penner was a target from the beginning of the merge onward, and now he's finally in a power position an in a majority alliance, now he's in a great position. So they just focused on him fighting for his life to show how deserving he is of the title, and now that he's in a different position, they won't show him as a fighter for survival, they'll show him being a mastermind the next few episodes, his story has changed dramatically three times now.

LAST EDITED ON 11-18-12 AT 02:49 AM (EST)

Cook Islands was also told through Jonathan's eyes. I even called it the Jonathan Camera.
- He liked someone or admired their skills; that person had a good edit (Yul, Ozzy).
- He thought someone didn't know the game, that player was edited as a dumb player (Adam, Candice)
- He didn't like someone; they had a bad edit (Nate and Parvati whose edits sank after the mutinee when Jonathan got to know them).
- Jonathan didn't talk to someone, that person didn't get airtime (Becky).
Still, jonathan was gone by F7.

Narrators rarely win. Another example was Austin in Panama. He was the narrator inside the La Mina alliance but once they became Gitanos, his role faded and he left.

Other notable narrators:
- Brandon; Guatemala.
- Cirie and Courtney; Panama
- Stephen; Tocantins.

But Jonathan's role isn't fading right now. Its getting stronger, he got people to vote with him this past episode, thats a good thing. Also, in episode 8, the one when Kent left, Jonathan got credit in the recap for things that he didn't need to get credit for. Probst said for instance, "at the merge, Penner went to work". Probst didn't have to say that. Also, Penner has been having a ton of winner quotes this season and has a lot of doubt. I know you dont' think Jonathan wins, but you can't ignore the evidence of all of this that I've mentioned. You like Mike, but Mike got a coconut to the head this past episode, what was that about? I'm just saying, the story might be seen through Jonathan's eyes, but he is the star. Malcolm and Denise's roles have been fading drastically lately..I think they go first.

Regarding Denise, because we were shown on two occasions where another contestant pointedly said "if she's in the final three, she'll win", one of two things will happen:

If there's a final two, I think she will be booted in 3rd place.
If there's a final three, I think she wins.
In both cases she 'gets the vote at F3'.

Certainly, Jonathan's role isn't fading right now but he is peaking too early in my opinion. Anyway, the winner's story is told by the merge. That's why the most important episode to determine the long term players is the premiere. The premerge then sets their long term connections and finally the merge episode often helps us determine the winner.

Jonathan, pre-merge, had a very one dimensional story: He was the lone wolf who found an idol. He received no end game connections at all and had a very ordinary merge episode, one in which he told us: "I’m a terrible judge of character and I don’t really deserve to stay in the game..." Jonathan has what really looks like a distraction story.

As for Mike, I don't "like" him. I don't even really like his story. Lisa and Denise have had much better stories even if Denise has been ignored lately.

What I noticed about Mike was that he had an amazing premiere that gave him end game connections and explained his strategy all at once. Then, inexplicably, he disappeared for the whole premerge until he had an amazing merge episode. The idea of a Phoenix rising from the ashes came to me. If the editors are really thinking of making a story arc spanning 24 seasons (don't forget that, unanimously, the Outback players said that Mike would have won that season had he stayed in the game) then I cannot help but think it was done because Mike wins this thing.

I look for manipulations just like when Boston Rob wasn't given a confessional after hearing that Matt had eliminated Russell. It told me that Rob wasn't there to beat Russell; he was there to win it all. Or when Parati and Natalie were never shown complaining about all the rain in Micronesia and Samoa respectively.

That's why this episode looked so good for Lisa: It made it look like she was liberating herself from Tandang when she actually didn't. The casual viewer must be sure that she voted against Artis. Unfortunately, next week is set up with Lisa still unable to break up with Tandang so the manipulation doesn't run as deep as I thought. The viewers will be set straight as to how she voted and they will see her as being wishy-washy, probably enough to be undeserving of the win.

Jonathan has had tons of manipulation. Remember in episode 5, when Dawson was voted out, he had a confessional about "In order to win this game I have to make big moves". Why did they show him saying that? In episode 6 when Katie and Carter were talking about their bodies not being able to be hold up through 39 days, they cut to Jonathan who has a confessional saying, "the deprivation doesn't bother me as much as these young kids". Then in episode 7 at the merge, he plays his idol, showing that he is well aware of what he is doing, but at the beginning of the episode he says, " I never know when people are lying, that's my flaw, and if I can't tell that then I dont deserve to win this game" then later on he plays his idol, showing that he could read when people are after him. So he's had an unbelievably manipulated edit that makes it seem like he's the winner. That's what I see, unless something else is being told here that I dont' see. I think they haven't shown Mike because he is irrelevant. I just rewatched the last episode, and before tribal council, when its Lisa and Mike in the ocean together talking about what side to choose, Mike says, "its you and me to the end" then there was a very weird sound, like a comical sound or something. Go rewatch it and you'll see what i'm saying, it was like one of those sounds tht they put in when something doesn't happen the way it should. And they spent the whole episode on Jonathan and Lisa, and Mike ended up flipping the vote instead of Lisa..they could have told it from Mike's point of view but didnt...so that says it all.

mrtricky you have laide out some reasonable arguements for a Penner win and I think that many people here are overlooking your comments because they think they already know the outcome of the season. They are reading the edit to suit some spoilers they may have heard or read or whatever. Good for you on your analisis.

LAST EDITED ON 11-24-12 AT 07:06 PM (EST)

Recap

From the moment Pete and Abi found the hidden immunity idol, they ruled the game with an iron fist.
They went into the merge with numbers…
…and took out their enemies one by one.

Everything changed when Skupin got tired of being at the bottom of their alliance.
At the last tribal council, Abi laid into Lisa…
…but, in the end, Lisa stayed true to her alliance and it was Skupin who joined the rebellion, taking out Pete and Abi’s biggest ally.

With their alliance crumbling, can Abi and Pete survive?

The recap really cut through the crap that we were served last week: Jeff clearly told us that Lisa stayed with her alliance and that Skupin was the real player. I noted that he described Mike’s move exactly the same way he sees Survivor: You’re at the bottom, you flip the game.

The Goat

Night 25

Abi: “Tribal council was a disaster basically. Seriously, what the (bleep). I thought we had agreed that Tandang was supposed to be strong and make a big move together.”

Meanwhile, Mike was heard saying: “If we hadn’t done what we did tonight, none of us would have had the chance at the mil.”

Mike then had a two part confessional. First at night: “Voting Artis out tonight was my first big move but I don’t believe you can win this game with just one big move. I believe there are several big moves that need to take place before the end of this game.” And then, during the day after we saw him agreeing to a Final 6 alliance with Denise: “Whichever way I go, I need to control this game as much as I can instead of letting somebody else determine my fate. It’s the only way I ever lived my life and it’s the way I’m going to play this game.”

Combine this with the recap and Mike is emerging as the mastermind of the season! All the silence of the pre-merge, the follower that went with the flow, the baby steps, that is now a thing of the past and Mike, the leader we knew in Australia, returned with determination.

The next segment began with a conversation between Abi and Lisa.

Lisa: “It’s hard to be in an alliance with Pete and Abi but I was never good at break-ups…A big part of who I am…is someone who feels comfortable to be used…The really good thing is that I feel like I am really taking control of my own destiny. I think it’s going to make a huge difference in the quality of my time out here and really, it sounds dramatic but, also for the rest of my life.”

This pretty much seals Lisa’s role as the journey player. In Survivor, many nice people have been used over the years. It’s very interesting that both Lisa and Mike talked about taking control but Mike’s control is over the game while Lisa is over her life. That’s the difference between the winner and the journey player.

The Challenge

The teams were randomly (yeah right) split into the 4 young players versus the 4 older ones.

In the first round, Carter proved to be faster than Jonathan.
In the second round, Malcolm forgot to flip a yellow drum, “opening the door for Skupin.”
Abi “flipped one from the other team” so Lisa easily won a point.
Jeff asked Abi if she understood what was going on and her answer was priceless: “No, not really.”
Denise was no match for Pete.
In a rematch between Mike and Malcolm, it was Mike that made the mistake: “Skupin flipped over the wrong one, the red team wins reward.
Before sending them on reward, Jeff had some fun with Carter who didn’t know the difference between manucure and pedicure.

The Reward

Malcolm: “We leave the challenge in a little boat then we get to this amazing little beach. We have massage tables, bathtubs, a picnic table…When I got here I sort of silenced the talk. The strategy behind that is that I am going to need to make a Final 3 or a Final 4 deal pretty quick and the people I want at the end are all sitting back at camp...”

Did Malcolm unknowingly just spoil the Final 4? Will it be all the older players?

Abi: “They came with platters of delicious food…Today, I feel like a princess…A queen!”

Pete: “It’s a pretty good feeling to be away from the game so that’s why I agreed with Malcolm not to talk about strategy today…The next challenge… I am going to be refueled and ready to kick some butt.”

Camp – Day 26

The players were already returning from reward and Abi told them all about it.

It had been a while (Cindy in Guatemala?) since we had seen a player get bashed for going on and on about their great reward. It used to be that people lied or avoided talking about the reward but nowadays the rewards are so lavish that everyone knows. It’s therefore strange that the players were offended by Abi’s talk. One thing that isn’t surprising was that the editors let us know that Abi had irritated the others.

Denise: “We were having a relaxing day and then Abi returned from the reward and it was like Urgh!”

Mike: “Normally, people are super gracious when they come back from reward but Abi’s downright cruel. She flaunted it, she wouldn’t stop.”

Malcolm: “Abi has all the social grace of a Mack truck. She has no understanding of how to talk to people.”

Then Abi said she was done with the cooking. She would eat but she wouldn’t do her share of the cooking anymore.

Denise: “You have lost your freaking mind, girl. Part of me thinks: That’s fine, let it ##### everybody else. Your time will come. I might not get to tell her anything until I write her name down in that tribal council when she’s finally walking out, I get to say: You know what: Whiners are wieners. You need to go home.”

I have a feeling that Abi isn’t going home so soon. She has been set up to be the decoy boot almost every week from now on but there are more important players to eliminate first and someone would be telling us about it soon.

Day – 27

Malcolm had a confessional after we heard him talking strategy with Mike: “With a pretty easy vote in theory coming up, my plan is the get a Final 4 set up today and kind of be able to coast after this vote until the end.”

Skupin told Malcolm it could be him and Denise but wondered who would be the 4th.
Malcolm suggested Lisa.
Mike said he’d check with Lisa.

Mike told Lisa about Malcolm’s proposal.
Lisa was pleasantly surprised.

Mike: “When someone wants to take you to the final four, you have to say, strategically, yes because, if you say no, you could wind up odd man out and, all of a sudden, you are on the chopping block.”

Lisa wanted to know his opinion so Mike said they had to make a pact with either Penner and Carter or Malcolm and Denise.
Lisa said she trusted Penner more.

This conversation between the two most important players of the last two episodes sounded like the key decision, the highlight moment that will be featured during the reunion to explain how the pair made it to the end.

Lisa talked with Penner in Mike’s presence.
Lisa told Penner that she wanted to go to the end with the two returning players.
Penner thanked her for the offer but said he was more comfortable taking care of one thing at a time. He added: “I am not interested to committing anything to anybody…not yet.”

While that was definitely Penner’s voice, the camera was standing behind Penner when we heard those words so it’s possible that he never said it exactly like that. For one thing, the voice quality was different than the rest of the scene. For all we know, those words could have been said right after the merge! The important thing though was that Jonathan didn’t want to accept a deal immediately after we heard that you had to take those deals or else you’d wind up on the chopping block. It made Jonathan look like an amateur at this game.

Jonathan had a confessional: “Lisa respects me and she said she wants to go to the final three with Skupin. It’s a great option but it’s too earloy for me to say who I should go to the Final three with. I will continue to keep them close and, if I get blindsided, more power to them. I will go out with my head held high.”

Sounded like Penner’s last words. He’s already written his exit speech!

Lisa: “Penner didn’t want to make that: “We’re true to the end” kind of deal. He said “let’s get rid of these two and see how it shakes down.” So, I think he missed an opportunity.”

The music took on a dramatic tone as Abi, Carter and Penner were alone in camp, Jonathan wondering: “Where is everybody.”

They, meaning Malcolm, Denise, Mike and Lisa, were making that deal.

Malcolm: “This is as serious a final 4 deal as you can make in this game. This isn’t just some quickie alliance where: Wham, bam, thank you mam! He’s gone, we are back on our own. I stuck my neck out…If it works out, it could be the best thing that’s happened to me in the game.”

Mike: “I committed a Final four with Malcolm but I am not too comfortable with it because he’s a gamer and that worries me. I felt I had to, I felt I didn’t have a choice. So, it makes me a little nervous. I want to be the one calling the shots so I am going to do my best to win the next immunity challenge.”

It’s strange that no one mentioned Denise and her chances to win. Is it because the editors are hiding the winner or is it because they want to prepare us for her lost, make us forget that she once mattered? I have to say that the editors have managed to make Denise look almost irrelevant which is pretty amazing considering her pre-merge build up.

The Challenge

Pete had a confessional that was inserted after Jeff gave them the rules of the challenge: “For me, it comes down to this challenge. Abi has the idol so, if I don’t win immunity, I am pretty much screwed so, all I can do is fight right now. Otherwise, it’s me.”

Peter didn’t even make it passed the first round; Malcolm, Penner, Denise, Skupin and Carter all beat him to the first post.
Skupin, Carter and Denise made it to the final leg.
In that leg, Mike had a lead late but Carter pulled it out and won immunity along with a bigger target on his back.

Camp – Day 27

Abi: “Today’s challenge was a really fun challenge however, I didn’t win it and Peter did not win as well so it’s basically, Peter, Abi and the hidden immunity idol. It’s like an alliance of three versus 6.”

With Skupin listening...

...Penner made it simple: “Split the votes 3 – 3 and if she doesn’t play the idol then we all vote for her.”

Jonathan: “Pete and Abi cannot win this game; they don’t have the numbers. There’s no reason to keep them around; their ship has sailed. Now, can somebody surprise me and play an incredibly stupid move? Maybe, but I honestly believe that all of us in the 6 are gonna stay strong so either Pete or Abi go home. Could it screw up? Yeah! But you could get hit by a car walking from your house to the post box too.”

Pete had a confessional after he talked to Abi about targeting Malcolm: “After the last Tribal, the whole game turned upside down. I went from the top of the pecking order all the way to the bottom but I am not going to give in and be like” OK guys! Vote me out. No! I’m going to try to get something going. Malcolm; he’s the biggest threat on the island, he has an idol and he needs to go home. We’ll be pitching this idea of “Get rid of Malcolm” to everybody, especially Skupin. He doesn’t think before he does things, he just jumps into it so he could be turned easily but all I really need is one person to flip.”

Lisa liked Abi’s plan but turned it down.
Carter told Peter he was in a pretty good spot.
Jonathan told Abi that he didn’t trust any of them because they had all voted against him at some point but he felt he had their trust. He was counting on the fact he had not betrayed them once.
Mike listened to Pete’s pitch. The music tried to paint a mystery movie moment while Mike silently listened. Then he said that Malcolm was “the biggest wildcard in the game.”

Mike: “I have a deal to go to the final four with Malcolm but now I am starting to rethink whether that was the smart thing to do or not because he is playing the hardest. Malcolm is a threat in challenge, he’s a smart strategic player and he’s liked by everybody. So, if I’m sitting next to Malcolm in the final three, I’m not sure I can beat him.”

Finally, he told Pete that he was’t saying no.

Mike’s whole story lies in these last three confessionals: He considered changing the plan to boot Malcolm so was he contemplating an incredibly stupid move like Jonathan called it? Can anyone say that booting Malcolm instead of Abi is stupid? Maybe the real stupid decision was made by Jonathan when he told everyone to write Abi’s name during the revote instead of Pete and maybe Mike only went along when he was sure she’d play the idol. Pete or Malcolm; one fit young guy had to go.

Mike didn’t jump into the plan like Pete said he would so we could say that everything Pete has ever said about Mike has been proven wrong but then he did jump into an alliance with Malcolm that he soon regretted.

What we do know is that Mike is looking ahead to the Final 3 like no one else in this game and that he has all sorts of hooks and storylines going into it. He is right when he says that Malcolm is the most likely winner at this stage but is he moving too fast? Is he forgetting someone? We need to be able to say no to these questions if we want to be sure that Mike is the winner.

Mike’s confessional went on: “The risk of changing it up again is that it could backfire. But, do I anticipate our current alliance to stay strong until the Final four and having a happy ending? It’s not that likely in this game.”

Malcolm: “Apparently, Pete and Abi realized that the easiest way to get someone to flip is to throw my name out there and run me over tonight. They just need one person to flop and I am going home. I have the idol but if nobody flips and I play that thing, I lose a lot of leverage moving forward. This is the trickiest situation about the idol that I have faced yet and I will have to keep my wits about me tonight, watching people and make the right decision., Otherwise, I’m toast.”

Right when Malcolm talked about the tricky decision, we had a shot of him looking over at a silent Mike as Jonathan went over the plan.

The image was meant to put doubt on Mike’s chances, telling the audience that Malcolm was watching him in particular. Of course, it could be interpreted the other way around: it could be telling us that Malcolm is smart enough to see through Mike’s evil plans but we have dismmised Malcolm as a winner long ago.

Tribal Council

Seeing Abi smile at Artis, Malcolm talked about jury management but right now, he was more concerned about staying in the game.
Pressed by Probst, Malcolm refused to admit it would be a good strategy to get rid of him.
Asked about it, Mike said he always thinks about the idol. He added: “At every tribal council there’s always an opportunity to vote whichever way you want.”
Asked about the feeling of going from Tandang never lost to beaten up, Pete said it wasn’t a good feeling but he hoped one person would flip.
That pleased RC.
Abi told Jeff she regretted the way she handled the last TC.
Jeff asked if any of it could be cultural.
Abi agreed, saying English wasn’t her first language and adding: “My attitude can be perceived as not the most gentle.”
Jeff noted that everyone was smiling at that.
Denise noted that she knew many non-English people that were still kind and helpful which Abi is not.
Abi said she’s usually loved so Jeff asked if she felt isolated.
Abi answered that she was emotional because Lisa didn’t forgive her.
Lisa set her straight by saying she forgave her but wanted to be with people that trusted her.
Abi said she understood.
When Jeff said she’d be great to take to the end, Denise replied: “If that’s the kind of game you want to play. You bring the deadweight, the unlikable person.”
Abi: “Wow! I didn’t know that I was unliked.”
Jeff: “I am starting to think that it is cultural…it was a sign, in our culture that you are full of it.”
Denise went on saying she wouldn’t want to bring someone like Abi to the end.
Abi asked her to stop. She added that she never had that much hatred thrown at her.
Denise said it wasn’t hatred, it was frustration. They argued back and forth, Denise repeatedly asking Abi to let her finish her trashing.

Before sending them to vote, Jeff said: “Any time there is somebody on the bottom, there’s this great opportunity to shuffle the game.”

While they voted, we heard Abi telling Pete: “That was brutal by them.”
He tried consoling her by saying she would be OK.

Abi played her idol. Mike went along with Jonathan’s plan so Pete went home.

In the end, Jeff encouraged Abi: “Your back is against the wall but…anything can happen.”
She thanked Jeff and walked out of TC so quickly that she forgot her torch and had to come back to get it!

Pete’s final words first mentioned Abi: “I felt bad for Abi…they ripped her apart.”

The Story

Now that we are coming to the end of the season, it’s clear that the season has been following Mike’s game all along. It was mainly told by Jonathan, RC and Lisa who were the main narrators and the audience’s compass. It was through their words that Abi, Pete and Artis were perceived as bullies and that Kent was seen as having an obsession against the returning players. But the flow of the story went step by step along Mike’s game. He was very quiet pre-merge where his only highlights happened by helping Tandang win challenges. That was exactly Tandang’s story: A great tribe in chalenges that didn’t get along. However, Mike was able to stay under the radar while RC was always pressing Abi, putting herself in position to be voted out early.

Since the emrge, Mike has been able to flip the vote to his advantage a couple of times. Once with Lisa’s help, once on his own. So we have to answer the questions: Is Mike moving too fast? Would it have been stupid to vote against the plan? Is he forgetting that someone else besides Malcolm could beat him in the finals? Is it stupid to flip the game on the 6? And will his idea of making many big moves hurt him like it hurt many schemers in the past? Well, for that, we need to look at the other players first.

The Characters

Jonathan: Jonathan may be proven right to have rejected the final 3 deal. After all, it’s the best way to avoid losing jury votes, something that could cost Mike dearly. But note that Jonathan himself told us that he would respect being blindsided. “More power to them” he said. Jonathan already gave us his final words and we know he will not hold it against Mike. Jonathan clearly missed an opportunity and the way the confessionals were presented underlined that. First, Mike told us you couldn’t refuse alliances, Penner then told us why he refused the alliance offer and then Lisa told us Jonathan missed the boat. It couldn’t be clearer: Sooner or later, Jonathan will be blindsided.

Malcolm: By his own admission, we were told that booting Malcolm wouldn’t have been a stupid move. Mike is right in saying that Malcolm is an extremely dangerous player and it would have been a waste to eliminate Abi instead of him. Elimnating Pete, on the other hand was a good trade. Pete is also smart and played hard and could have done well in challenges. Malcolm made the final four alliance but he didn’t say anything about his plans after that. That tells us he will fall short in the end, maybe missing out on the final 4.

Lisa: We were able to define her role as the journey player once and for all when she gave that confessional about taking control of her life. It had been opur contention all along but there was always something about Lisa’s edit that made us hesitate along with her. As she said earlier, she is there to learn about herself because she isn’t that good at the game.

Denise: If Mike is forgetting someone that could beat him in the end, then it would be Denise. However, her story has been dropped since the merge and she only served to trash Abi in this episode. Certainly, the audience was happy to see Abi put in her place but Denise was edited as going overboard. Pete’s final words carried a lot of weight and they remeinded of David’s words when he said that Zapatera was wrong to be dancing on Hantz’s grave. The point had been made when Abi started crying and asked for them to stop but the editors continued showing Denise wanting to make the same point again and again. It felt as if Denise went too far, making some (most?) viewers feel sorry for Abi and potentially losing some jury votes.

Mike: Looking at Jonathan’s story, it’s clear that Mike’s big moves wouldn’t hurt him. It would be accepted as part of the game. From listening to Malcolm then it’s clear that Mike wouldn’t have been stupid to move against him. As likable as Malcolm is, the audience would see that Mike had no choice. Denise’s lackluster post merge edit and her passive aggressive attitude towards Abi showed us that she isn’t the under the radar winner. Mike isn’t forgetting about her chances to win the jury votes because she wouldn’t be as liked by the jury as Swann and Malcolm thought she’d be. As for moving too fast, it’s clear that Mike kept his plan to himself, that he only entertained the idea but the way he was shown observing and listening told us he will strike at the right time and that he will make the big moves that he needs to win. And it wouldn't surprise me if he used Abi, the goat, to reach his goal.

LAST EDITED ON 11-24-12 AT 07:13 PM (EST)

Denise repeatedly asking Abi to let her finish her trashing. quit interrupting her reasonable explanation of why other people react to Abi in ways Abi doesn't understand.

Fixed that for you. Shame on your horrible spin.

Are we in Sucks where opinions get fixed?

Mike really hasn't made any big moves, he has just accepted what has been offered. RC, then Lisa, now Final 4 that Malcolm offered. Even that, he deferred to whatever Lisa wanted, & would align with Penner. Then, even after agreeing to Malcolm's final 4 deal, he's shown as considering going with Pete's suggestion. He has talked the talk, but his actions are just like Lisa's, weak & more of a go along with the plans of others. They may develop Mike, or even Lisa, but I think I've seen Denise as a leader once or twice since merge. Her role can reemerge. As with your synopsis, Lisa, Mike & Denise seem to be final 3, but if they do F3, then Denise seems to me to be the most likely edit as a winner.

Murphy wrote:
>Mike really hasn't made any big
>moves, he has just accepted
>what has been offered.

Probst said:
From the moment Pete and Abi found the hidden immunity idol, they ruled the game with an iron fist.
They went into the merge with numbers and took out their enemies one by one.
Everything changed when Skupin got tired of being at the bottom of their alliance.

Which version matters?

LAST EDITED ON 11-25-12 AT 05:44 PM (EST)

>Which version matters?

I don't put much stock in what Probst says when he is promoting the show. So, the version that matters to me is the one I perceive (right or wrong ). I think Skupin can win it, Lisa or Denise as well. I've just not been impressed with Skupin's or Lisa's edit. That leaves me with Denise, but CBS has time to redefine the characters.

I wouldn't call Pete & Abi getting their way in voting out RC to be ruling with an iron fist. Boston Rob ruled with an iron fist, Pete & Abi ... no. Pete & Abi took out RC, who should have been an ally, & Jeff, only 2 before losing control, & had Penner voted Pete rather than Abi, Pete might have gone home rather than Kent & Pete/Abi would have lost control after taking out only RC. They didn't have control at the Kent boot, just even #'s. Everything changed when Penner gave Skupin & Lisa the chance to change things up & vote out Artis. Skupin didn't initiate the move, he just accepted Penner's offer. Skupin seemed as wishy washy as Lisa when reconsidering the Pete vote.

The recaps aren't promotion. They are what the editors want us to remember of the story. As such, they are the most valuable tool in analyzing the edit.

My "cut to commercials" theory (the winner has the most obvious montage of recaps that can be readily applied before/after a commercial break) didn't exactly pan out last season. There must be a corollary about "absurdly hot chicks get a lot of screentime" or something...

Anyway, this season seems to be all about Mike. Probable montages include:
- his countless bloody accidents
- his work around camp and/or trying to be under the radar
- ...and Michel's recap just reminded me that Mike has a lot of "most trusted alliancemates" (RC, Lisa, Penner)

That should be enough.

(strong second choice could go to Malcolm, with discovering the idol, being loved by everyone, doing well in challenges, and surviving his tribe's failures... so I'll assume he gets "Sprint Player" award)

No hot chicks distractions this time!!!!

Lisa and Mike's talk about their F4 choices certainly fits the bill. And you know Jeff will turn to Penner, asking him about that decision to reject the F3 offer.

LAST EDITED ON 11-25-12 AT 09:24 PM (EST)

Nice editing thoughts Michel, I always enjoy reading.

It’s very interesting that both Lisa and Mike talked about taking control but Mike’s control is over the game while Lisa is over her life. That’s the difference between the winner and the journey player.

Sometimes it is about the journey. Where there "journey" players that have won?

I have to say that the editors have managed to make Denise look almost irrelevant which is pretty amazing considering her pre-merge build up.

This was her survival story though, she seems to be evolving into the narrator perhaps to replace Penner if she outlasts him.

Coronation by Tribe