LAST EDITED ON 10-30-11 AT 04:56 PM (EST)

Upolu's hii may be a factor. If Cochran isn't certain whether or not Upolu plans to play an hii (or if they even have one), it might make him nervous, since if the correct person from each tribe plays an hii, that would bring Savaii's tie vote/purple rock scenario to bear.

If he knew that e.g. Albert was going to play the hii he could redirect Savaii's vote accordingly so that the tie is avoided. If he doesn't know for sure, it's a crapshoot.

ETA: If Upolu is smart and has any suspicions about Cochran, they won't tell him anything about the hii. That will better ensure that he does flip.

They probably do have suspicions about Cochran. That might be why he actually flips -- if they don't tell him about the HII or if he figures it out but isn't told who will play it, he might panic and decide to flip and make sure he's not the one going to Redemption Island. As Jonathan from Cook Islands would say, it's better to be hated for flipping and make sure you're on the right side of the votes than to be popular and go home early.

I think that is exactly right Belle. Everybody has something that is important to them. Cochran knows that if he is to win the game he must first stay in the game. He knows the answer for him is not to go to redemption island, he knows he isn't a challenge hound.

In the end there can be only one winner.

When faced with a 1 in 8 shot of drawing a purple rock and in drawing the rock he is guaranteed to leave the game, Cochran chooses to go with Upolu and hopefully improve his chances by guaranteeing that he will stay in the game.

I agree with Dabo in that Cochran will recognize that he will need to gather the lowest on the totem pole at each tribe at some point in order to oust the power players on both sides. I don't know that we are in for a straight pagonging here.

Savaii and Ozzy did not exactly make Cochran feel at home. Ozzy barely even spoke to Cochran, and only decided to talk strategy when it was down to 6 vs 6. Ozzy didn't go to RI to save Cochran. Ozzy went to RI so that he could save Savaii to get the numbers at the merge against Upolu, start pagonging them, and then ditch Cochran at the first chance he could.

Cochran, despite what you all may think, is not stupid. He knows Ozzy isn't sacrificing himself just for Cochran. So Cochran has to do what he has to do to watch out for himself, 'cause one thing he knows about Survivor is, only one person can win.

Whether or not Cochran can win if he turns his back on his tribe at merge is a whole 'nother thing. I will have to see how it all plays out starting Wednesday.

I'm not sure who came first hosting games, you or Tribe, but you are both nefarious! - CTGirl

Yeah, his only chance is to gather the lowest on the totem pole at each tribe at some point in order to oust the power players on both sides. Of course, the success of that plan depends on whether Whitney and Dawn (the two lowest on Savaii) aren't too blinded by anger to realize that they don't have much choice. A-dum-dum (my nickname for Adam) and Parvati were too blinded by their anger at Jonathan to give him much chance of getting back with him, so the same might apply to Dawn and Whitney. Edna might go for it, but not if Rick doesn't.

Jim might go for it, he already experienced lowest on the pole in the 90210 alliance and still needs to improve his chances. For Dawn it is a big step up in her game. I do think Edna would see the advantage of it, though she would need Rick to jump in with her. They need a third Upolu, know it can't be Coach and it can't be Brandon as long as Coach is in the game holding the HII (and Brandon is a loose cannon, of course). They should actually form a sub-secret alliance with Albert and Sophie, pretend to bring Sophie in, let Coach and a couple of Savaii get eliminated (Ozzy is gone the moment he doesn't win II), and then the four of them take control of the game from the Secret Alliance. Edna might be that smart, Rick is too much of an unknown still.

It could actually be an interesting game for awhile, a wild mid-game anyway. Too much to hope for?

I forgot that Jim might be lower than Whitney. And yeah, he'll go for it. Edna will go for the first secret alliance and quite likely go for the sub-secret alliance with Albert & Sophie bit, but she needs two things to happen there:

1. She needs Rick with her,
2. She needs Albert & Sophie to be willing to join forces with her & Rick. And they voted against her.

I hope it happens, but I'm not sure it will happen!

Anything is possible, but Maxx has been very reliable & straightforward. Don't know why he'd want to start messing with us now.

And the fact is, this fits what John has shown us about himself despite what those who think he has a "winning" edit say -- he stated day one when he demanded to be called Cochran (which is why I refuse to do it) that he wanted to be "known" -- not win -- "known." And he's been playing for 3 more days ONLY never, ever to win. All we've EVER heard from him is what he can't do -- I can't go in the water, I can't dive, I can't be in the sun, I can't go to RI & duel a middle aged "b!tch" (his word choice), I can't, I can't, I can't.

He can't play an effective double agent either, so to buy himself 3 more days (again, his M.O.), he flips for real. That's definitely going to get him "noticed" but he can't be loyal & he definitely can't win either.

Student of the game, my foot. He was almost assuredly F3 with Jim, Keith, Ozzy and Dawn (and probably Whitney too) if he'd stayed loyal to Savai'i especially after they ALL decided to spare him a pre-jury exit (and he surely would have lost the RI duel to Christine -- he told us that himself). Now, I seriously doubt he makes it past F6. He's doing the Fincher "they wanted me out so to hell with them" thinking that only someone who doesn't understand Survivor at all would think -- the same reasons for wanting him gone pre-merge are the exact reasons to keep him post-merge. If he had stayed loyal, he could have pulled the "I've grown out here" card and gotten some votes at F3, if not the win itself.

Just when I thought there was no way I could dislike this weasel any more! I agree though that with this move there's no way he can win and that it'll be funny to see "John wins!" supporters try to put a positive spin on his backstab.
What really irks me is that TPTB have been trying to make us see John as a lovable loser underdog you want to root for all season and they've basically shoving him down our throats as this season's Fan Favorite. I'm sure Jeff will gush over this and try to convince people that this makes John a Survivor genius. My prediction is that the weasel will be given Fan Favorite - and yes, I'm specifically using "given" because I think it's his regardless of the actual vote count.
Oh well I have a feeling it will be entertaining to see him get ripped apart at FTC if he makes it (and I'm guessing he will 'cause he's an excellent goat). Maybe it'll make Survivor history and we'll see a player literally pee in his pants

Jeff is already touting it as some genius move (instead of a chickensh!t move, which it is -- he can't risk a 6-6 tied voted with the purple rock -- which, btw, Jim, professional poker player is -- so he just flips to buy 3 more days-- this is his *only* thought process behind this, not some great "scheme" no matter what the editors try to tell us).

CBS & Jeff can keep shoving him down our throats all they want, but he will go down as the biggest TRAITOR in Survivor history along with Candance -- remember her stepping off the Aitu mat? Yeah, he's going to be hated worse than her. He's also got biggest dumb@ss in the bag. Hey, at least he will be "known."

They'd have to *give* him FF because my Focus Group already hates his guts & when I asked about the possibility of him betraying Savaii/Ozzy, they almost had a fit. No way he recovers any kind of average viewer "fan base" after this.

I honestly can't see him getting beyond F5 this way (and he would have had F3 with any Savaii if he had taken the purple rock risk & a Upolu was booted) -- he *might* be used by Coach to get out some Upolus after the other 5 Savaii are gone, but no further than F6/F5. I bet not only because he will remind Coach of Stephen (who Coach was burned about long after Tocantins ended), it would go against all of Coach's loyalty/warrior/survival of the fittest not weakest b.s. that's he's been spewing for 3 seasons. And even Coach can't be so greedy as to want 2 goats (he already has 1 in Brandon), can he?

If the spoilers are true, I'm calling a Coach win now. He had the best Episode 1 edit & word on the street is he came back all happy, setting up fan pages, etc. {shrug} Better than Cochroach (that's what I'm calling him now, because that is what he is, pass it on).

I'm holding out hope that Ozzy comes back from RI a second time & wins his way to F3, but it isn't looking good.

Kiki, do you think you could videotape the "focus group" watching next week? That might be more entertaining than the ep itself!

I hope you're right about the 'roach getting no further than F5 - I don't want him rewarded with a F3 even though he'd get no votes. I'm not sure I'm going to be able to watch the reunion 'cause you know he's going to be a focus.

Coach being greedy? Oh heck yeah, he'd love to have two goats.

I'm still going to hold out hope that since Maxx said "screwed" versus "dead" (or something similar) there's a .05% chance Jim pulls this out. Otherwise I'm going to hope for a Sophie or Albert win even though their edits say "no way they win".

Yeah, there is hope in the word "scr@wed" but Maxx also wrote (after revealing Keith's boot) that:

You don‘t have to be a mathemagician to see how that is going to work out for Ozzy, Dawn, Whitney & Jim

He could be giving us the next 4 boots, in order, right there.

"You don‘t have to be a mathemagician to see how that is going to work out for Ozzy, Dawn, Whitney & Jim

He could be giving us the next 4 boots, in order, right there."

Yeah, I agree but I'm just trying to be a big ole optimist 'cause I'm not finding myself fond of any of the U's left except maybe Sophie and Al.

One thing I'm holding onto hope about in Maxx's quote is the fact that, so far, he's been adamant about spoiling only week to week so it'd be out of character for him to give us the next four boots.

I know it's a stretch but a girl can hope can't she?

I read somewhere that it's been "confirmed" (whatever that means, take it for what it's worth) that Keith and Ozzy are the next two to go. I was looking at comments about the Funny 115 and someone said "these two are the next two go" and immediately a couple other people started shouting that a spoiler had been revealed, don't read if you don't want to know more.

For what it's worth guys (and it's probably not much) Maxx hates Cochran too. I may be falling into the trap that everyone is with reading too much into his 'opinions' - but I know for sure that he does. Maxx has offered no opinion on whether he's happy with the outcome of the season or not which is why I say his hating Cochran tells us nothing.

LAST EDITED ON 10-29-11 AT 01:34 AM (EST)

I've read this entire thread and other stuff, like what Maxx actually said (and crud, I'm gonna have a hard time thinking of bonus questions this week: and note to self, score ep7 whydoncha, it needs to be done). The chickens absolutely have not shown up since they were the reward, weird season

Let's assume Cochran is not making a stupid traitor no way he can win the game now move this week, that he actually has a good plan. What would that be?

A cross-tribal alliance.

Some people, no matter what tribe they are on, are reliably (what a relief) no longer targets once they reach the merge, when individual challenge threat becomes a liability and strong challenge threats without II become targets. An alliance of non-threats, what a concept!

Cochran is in position now to try to create a cross-tribal alliance, move secret agent to double agent to triple agent. Himself, Dawn, and probably Jim from Savaii, with initially Edna and Rick and ? from Upolu, at least initially.

He has to gather solid info from Upolu players, of course, in order to put it in play, but let's assume that is the idea. And neutralizing the HII's, both of them, is instrumental in making it work. Getting Ozzy to waste his HII is the first move, blindsiding Coach with his HII is the second or third move.

Seriously, what Survivor fan/player wants to end up below NaOnka and Chet on the fave lists?

I'm gonna have a hard time thinking of bonus questions this week: and note to self, score ep7 whydoncha, it needs to be done
The whole reason I started the GOTS (early even) was so that you wouldn't have to worry about creating a game out of the Vote Thread.
That and I already counted Ep.7 points and have added them into the GOTS.
Hope you're not mad, but my whole intention was to get the Vote Thread back to normal and to also ease your need for coming up with bonus questions.
However, if you still wanna host a game, I'm more than willing to pass along the GOTS to you.

No mad, and not interested in hosting a game, you are welcomce to it. I'm gonna pass on GOTS, simply because I have other concerns and don't have the time or energy. KB threw the scoring game in my lap and, darnit, trying to come up with unspoiled bonus questions is damn hard.

LAST EDITED ON 10-29-11 AT 11:06 AM (EST)

That's what I believe as well.

Come on, let's focus on spoiling instead of being fanboys/fangirls... If you look at things without bias, I see Cochran as doing whatever it takes to keep himself in the game longer - isn't the objective to "outplay, outwit, outlast"?

Edited to tone down my frustration over how some posts are focused solely on their hatred for certain contestants and how it influence their ability to spoil the show without bias.

LAST EDITED ON 10-29-11 AT 01:05 PM (EST)

Contrary to what some might believe, my alleged "hatred" for Cochroach isn't causing bias on my part. In fact, I'm only being perceived as "hating" him because I see him with clear eyes instead of trying to give him attributes he has shown he does not have.

What basis, other than wishful thinking, can we justify this move as some well thought out strategic play from someone we have been shown, time and time again, as panicky, inept and without the "physically and emotional ability" to make such moves? This is a guy who was too scared to face a middle-aged woman on RI and a guy who can't take a 1/7factorial risk of drawing the purple rock. Now he becomes some risk-taker, throwing away all ties with Savaii (and 5 jury votes) on some hope of a cross-tribal alliance?

If you have evidence that he can take this risk from his edit, fine. But I can't see it based on what we know of him. That isn't "hatred" of the kid. That is what I see of him & how he is playing this game.

eta: thinking about it some, I want to make clear: I'm not saying a cross-tribal alliance couldn't happen, but *if* it does & *if* John is used as a vote in it, it will not be a result of his "savvy/risk-taking game play." He will luck into it (*maybe* Albert & Sophie see a chance to take out Coach?) just like he lucked into Jim playing an individual game Day 1 & choosing to "weaken" Ozzy with the Semhar & Elyse boots rather than worry about merging with numbers against Upolu and just like he lucked into Savaii thinking he'd stay loyal to them at merge thereby sending Ozzy to RI in his place.

LAST EDITED ON 10-29-11 AT 11:53 PM (EST)

I'm not saying I have any proof of it, as I said above it is based on an assumption that Cochran is not making a stupid move.

Secret Agent play: Well, it might work, it really shouldn't, but Cochran's been given that mission so that is what he has to do. Since he is forced to take action and play the game, he does. There is no risk in the secret agent play, the worst case scenario is simply that it just doesn't work. This is what the Cochran you see would do, no more and no less.

Double Agent play: Cochran defects to Upolu. Not risky, it is basically game suicide; even if he gets to Final Tribal he won't win. But this play doesn't get him to Final Tribal, it moves him from #6 in Savaii to #7 in Upolu, he gets less time in the game. In fact his usefullness to Upolu is done after one vote, they could decide to end his game with the next boot. The only reason to do it, other than revenge, is if it is a ploy in a greater scheme.

Triple Agent play: Build a cross-tribal alliance to take control of the game. Cochran has Jim and Dawn to help him think it up and try to make it happen, and Jim may be the one to come up with it. So Cochran has support in this play, he's not taking the risk alone. If it works the worst case scenario is Cochran himself ends up #6 in the Secret Alliance, exactly the same spot he had in Savaii.

Why try to get the "weak" players to form this cross-tribal alliance? This is extended speculation at this point. But the "weak" players have done well to make it to the merge, the pressure is off, now they have to consider how they can get to Final Tribal and possibly win. None of them have been considered possible winners within their tribes, they are simply useful to the power players, expendable when the time comes. A cross-tribal power alliance improves all of their chances because it puts them in control of the game.

I think I've now pinpointed what it is about Maxx's post that doesn't make sense to me. Anything can happen in Survivor, of course, but Maxx explicitely has it as a 7-5 vote without a revote. Maxx then has his own perhaps speculative elaborate explanation of that vote. In the fear of the rock explanation Cochran's best option in the first vote is to vote for some Upolu other than Albert, that is all he needs to do to avoid the rock.

How does Cochran know to vote for Keith?

The one aspect of the Secret Agent play that might work is getting Upolu to waste their HII. They might do that anyway without the play. It doesn't happen. For the Double Agent play it is irrelevant whether they play it, for the Triple Agent play making certain Upolu doesn't play their HII yet is important because if they play it that simply insures that another HII goes into hiding at camp. To make the Triple Agent play he blows the Secret Agent play to appear as a Double Agent to Upolu.

Upolu shouldn't entirely trust him, though, and simply use him to send disinformation to Savaii, which they do since Ozzy covers Whitney with the HII, Cochran knows Whitney is safe before the vote.

So, how does Cochran know to vote for Keith? In the Secret Agent and Double Agent plays he shouldn't know that. The Triple Agent play is the only play that gets him solid information.

Granted, it is my own elaboration, but I think Maxx is elaborating on the rock fear.

LAST EDITED ON 11-01-11 AT 06:15 PM (EST)

Dabo, Max has since said here on Sucks that he doesn't know if it's a 7-5 vote or a 6-5-1 vote. He does know that there is only one round of voting and that Keith goes home.

So it's entirely possible that Upolu does not confirm to Cochran who they are voting for, to prevent him from being able to go back and rearrange things with Savaii, and that Cochran doesn't vote for Keith.

And Savaii doesn't know if Upolu has an idol or if they plan to play it and I'm guessing Cochran won't know either. That is where fear of the rock comes in -- supposed both tribes play the idol on the correct person?

So http://www.tvfunspot.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13775
The episode ends with a vote of 5 to 7, but who goes to Redemption Island?
is a MaxxFactor cosmetic nuthin.

Someone please tell this bozo to quit making things up.

Yes I know -- there are Chill1-esque aspects creeping into his posts. At least Maxx does concede when it's pointed out where there's room for doubt, unlike the Chill1.

Possible. He might be thinking along those lines. But that's assuming that he's got a plan and hasn't just chickened out. We'll have to wait and see on that idea. At least such an idea might help Edna.

LAST EDITED ON 10-29-11 AT 02:32 PM (EST)

Yes. The Upolu could well just string Cochran along until it's time to "blindside" Coach, for the moment it only matters how it plays in the upcoming episode.

LAST EDITED ON 11-01-11 AT 07:58 PM (EST)

What would be really funny is, if Upolu feels 100% confident this week that Cochran has abandoned Savaii and set them up to burn their hii, they tell Cochran to vote for Keith, and then the six of them vote for Cochran. They use Cochran to get them the numerical advantage while simultaneously disposing of him.

I guess we can't look forward to that.

Well, he'd be safe from the rock that way.

Funny, I wrote before the spoiler came out that John wouldn't want to be another Brandon Quinton, John Fincher, or even Jonathan Penner. Wrong wrong!

I did correctly guess that the Savai'i targeted would be Keith and not Jim, if John were to go after a Savai'i.
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/7765.shtml#22

If it had come to a tie, the person with immunity and whoever played the idol would be immune from getting votes. Then the people who got votes would be immune after the deadlock second vote. So the other eight players would draw a rock.

What the idol can't do is you can't play it before the revote if you failed to play it the first time around.

Well, if Cochran throws his entire tribe under the bus, and the Upolu's are going to keep moving forward with the one big happy family unit, then this is likely to spell the demise of Savaii. Most likely Ozzy will go as soon as he doesn't win immunity, as he'll be their number one target. So, in my mind, it could be the order that Maxx notes...Ozzy, Dawn, Whitney, and Jim. Jim would be last because he either wins the IN, or Cochran liked him the best because he spared him twice. I don't know.

What will happen when they are gone?

There seems to be a core alliance of Coach, Sophie, and Albert. But, Max gave us a hint that Coach will get rid of the women before the men....he has always wanted it to be a game where the warriors make it to the end....Will Cochran be the first of the remaining seven? How could he possibly survive to the finals, as so many predict? If loyalty is a theme, he'll never make it.

Will Coach cut Edna and Sophie first? If these things happen, Cochroach is cut lose, and the girls are eliminated, than that leaves the final 5 as: Coach, Albert, Brandon, Rick, and the RI returnee. Clearly, the RI returning player must win every challenge to make it within this group. Let's assume that the RI player does indeed survive, most likely Rick would be the next logical choice? Coach in final 4 with all warriors? I don't know, but it seems that it will not likely be a straight predictable elimination as it was in Redemption Island. Does Cochran stand a chance of cracking into the loyal family?

Let's look at the jury. Will it be a jury of 9 with the final 3, as it was with Redemption Island? If so, the first jury member will be the boot or duel losers after episode 9. If that is the case, the entire Savaii tribe could sit on the jury....the jury is likely to be comprised of at least 5 Savaii, and at least 3 Upolu.

All food for thought....will they take the path that Boston Rob did? Is there hope for any on Savaii?

Excellent reasoning as always FloPo! Your summary makes perfect sense...but it does sound like things will be fairly predictable if the Upolu stay loyal to each other.

I don't thing Maxx intended to give us a Savaii boot order, just a suggestion that they might be Pagonged. If Keith goes first, it's an indication that the Upolu will try to eliminate the challenge treats first, so my guess is they would gor for Ozzy and Jim next, followed by Whitney and Dawn after that and finish off the traitor/goat before the Upolu are forced to start voting off their own...

Krautboy

I don't know KB, I am still thinking out loud, so to speak. I am trying to fit the clues with how the season is unfolding. Remember Maxx did say that the people that are getting the airtime are the end game players....who is/was getting the airtime, arguably most of the air time...Cochran. It seems to me that he could indeed out last some Upolu's? I don't know.

Yes, I would suspect that the Upolu's would want to take care of the threats to win immunity first. I just don't know. While this is quite a surprising merge period, it would be a terribly predictable post merge pagonging. With the game going like it is, I would suspect there to be some kind of mix ups in the future....still finding the direction of the game to be disturbing...the one hope would be for the RI returnee to force some unexpected boots, I suppose....

I think the best hope is for Cochran. There may be some hope for your beloved Ozzy, but I don't see much there. And I'm still holding out hope for Edna.

Just in case you didn't catch this confirmation by Maxx in what is now a complete trainwreck of a 23 page thread, the Savaii could indeed be pagonged in such a way, but it would be purely coincidental. I'll quote him:

"I was speaking from the perspective of this specific episode. What anyone would think or assume at the conclusion of episode 8. The Savaii names I listed are not a hint of who goes home or in what order they leave. When I kept calling Christine "Matt" I was talking about how well she had done at Redemption Island up to that point, I was not hinting at her coming back from RI. It's the same thing with what I said about Savaii "

We're all such conspiracy theorists (guilty as charged here) we'll see spoilers in his recipe for spicy pumpkin cupcakes next. I'm not saying it doesn't happen, I'm just saying Maxx didn't spoil it.

Could I get that recipe for spicy pumpkin cupcakes, please?? ;) ;)

Just wanted to say, I've not kept up on the spoilers too much...trying to just watch the show....but had read Brandon was F5, and I think I read Coach's team was victorious....
Then, after last week's show, I had GREAT hope that this whole plan of Ozzy's would come to fruition. How great that would be!

Couldn't wait for this next episode so spoilers here I come! And now, deep depression! I guess we'll have to see what happens to John to see why he does what he does....

The Brandon medical evacuation at F5 "spoiler" is specious, a hoax of some sort.

I also don't believe there was any spoiler that Coach's team is victorious. Some people may have guessed that based on the Brandon in F5 info.

I thought that initially, but the more I looked at it the more it seemed an overplayed hoax. Brandon out at one of the two F5s could come true but that would be entirely a coincidence, IMO.

The Brandon Medivac at F5 spoiler appears to have morphed out of the original spoiler from Danni at SSkills very early on. Since then it appears to have been confirmed by others with a good spoiling record.

My understanding of the spoiler is that something happens at F5 to cause Brandon to have another meltdown, at which point he wants to quit the game. The rumor was that the producers considered a fake Medivac to cover-up Brandon's quit.

The most recent spoiler from SU states that he is talked into sticking around until the TC where he is voted out, basically at his request.

Perhaps Brandon promises Edna his loyalty, but when Coach betrays her/him, he freaks out...or perhaps he comes to the realization that Coach will not take him to the end and that betrayal causes him to give up...

Regardless of the reason for Brandon's actions, there appears to be enough confirmation from different sources to conclude that something does happen to cause Brandon to leave the game at F5.it does happen. How the editors present it to the viewing audience will be interesting to watch. They will probably hide alot of it just like they did with the Sash/Jane incident.

Krautboy

If Brandon finds out that Coach had the HII way before Coach and Sophie "found" it I see him going completely bonkers. Once again his bad choice (Coach as an ally) ends up badly, he's mentally on thin ice anyway. Ultimate meltdown ensues.

A Tribe masterpiece