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"S19 Gufu Award: Week 10"
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dabo 25344 desperate attention whore postings
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11-20-09, 01:29 AM (EST)
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"S19 Gufu Award: Week 10"

THE RULES; The Gufu Award was established for pointing out the dangdumbest game moves in Survivor. Each week you have a designated number of votes you may award for Contestant Gufus! Should you notice any gufus of dangdumbness for noncontestant stuff, these are Production Gufus, a separate category with its very own designated number of votes you may award. Should you wish to exceed your designated votes, these are Honorary Gufus.

This week take um... four (4) Contestant gufu votes and three (3) Production gufu votes! No, actually, just take however many you want.

I'll start!

Contestant #1: Shambo. Someone's gotta say it, girl can't act! What was the point in voting with Galu last time? Love that she had a lot of fun this time but it was just, like, so obvious she was happy with the continued destruction of Galu, I mean like totally.

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10 Oscirus 11-20-09 1
 RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10 Max Headroom 11-20-09 2
   RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10 nailbone 11-20-09 3
       RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10 PepeLePew13 11-20-09 7
           RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10 anotherkim 11-21-09 15
   RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10 Tublecane 11-21-09 10
 RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10 Molaholic 11-20-09 4
   RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10 Max Headroom 11-20-09 5
   RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10 Puffy 11-20-09 6
       RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10 KLicK 11-20-09 8
           RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10 dabo 11-21-09 9
               RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10 Puffy 11-21-09 12
 RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10 Colonel Zoidberg 11-21-09 11
   RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10 Tublecane 11-21-09 13
       RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10 vince3 11-21-09 14
       RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10 Colonel Zoidberg 11-23-09 20
           RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10 Tublecane 11-23-09 21
               RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10 Brownroach 12-02-09 23
           RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10 Tublecane 11-23-09 22
   RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10 dabo 11-21-09 16
       RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10 Tublecane 11-21-09 17
           RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10 dabo 11-21-09 18
               RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10 Tublecane 11-22-09 19

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Oscirus 1596 desperate attention whore postings
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11-20-09, 01:53 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10"
1. Monica electing john to be the sacraficial lamb without telling John. Brilliant way to keep your people loyal
2.Dave electing to follow russell as opposed to looking for the idol. I mean I realize he is good at looking for the idol but still you have the same clue he did, look for it.
3.Shambo totally blowing her mole role and telliing evo who would listen that shes voting out laura.
4. Mich and Jaison revealing shambo to be their mole. Even if they didnt say her name, it was obvious who it was

production.
1. The idol clue, whil I am not one who subscribes to the rigged terminology, going from the first post merge idol clue of its back at camp, to another first idol clue which details the location makes things seem kind of fishy.

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Max Headroom 10028 desperate attention whore postings
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11-20-09, 09:05 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10"
Contestant #1: John the rocket scientist, for being bad at math. Let's see, you can stick with your alliance and have a 1/8 chance of drawing the purple rock and getting booted, plus a 1/2 chance of your alliance coming out ahead if a Foa draws the purple rock. Or you can flip and guarantee yourself 6th place behind all the Foas and Shambo. Which would you choose, Lisi John?

Contestant #2: Shambo, for being so obvious about her dislike for Laura, which mad it a guaranteed 5-5 tie at TC. Nobody's going to fall for anything like a "vote for John" ploy after Shambo used the camp PA system to tell everyone she's voting for Laura.

Contestant #3: Laura, for being oblivious in her post-boot comments. She had no clue that she was the target every time after the merge?


agman's helping me survive

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nailbone 27263 desperate attention whore postings
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11-20-09, 03:50 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10"
Or you can flip and guarantee yourself 6th place behind all the Foas and Shambo.

But a 100% guarantee to make it to the next TC. Anything can happen during the between times, like winning the next IC.


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PepeLePew13 24731 desperate attention whore postings
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11-20-09, 08:24 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10"
I'd take the 100% guarantee every time.

There's always a chance of pulling someone over at F7 or F6 to get rid of the alpha dog (in this case, RussHell), so I'd take my chances there and go with the guarantee of being still in the game.

I'd absolutely hate myself for thinking I'm reasonably safe with the purple rock with the odds in my favour, but then drawing it and having to leave the game in such a sucky manner.

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anotherkim 14419 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-09, 05:52 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10"

agrred. you can't undo a purple rock, but you can do a LOT of talking, deal-making and attention-shifting in three days. Always go with the method that most likely keeps you around the longest.

Kimmah Says
--haven't read any spoilers, so no one tell me, but it seems to me that natalie is getting a serious winner's edit since the merge.

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Tublecane 141 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-09, 05:46 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10"
LAST EDITED ON 11-21-09 AT 05:46 AM (EST)

"Or you can flip and guarantee yourself 6th place behind all the Foas and Shambo."

First, everyone's afraid of the purple rock. That's why ties don't happen anymore.

Second, Monica's brilliant strategery demonstrated that he might have been at the bottom of the Galu pecking order, which means had Foa-Foa picked the purple rock, he still could have gone out at 5. Trading 5 for 6 isn't a great move, but maybe he thinks he has a better shot with Foa-Foa.

Finally, anything can happen between now and 6. Start with informing Mick and Jaison that Russell's gotta go. Or maybe flip Shambo back now that big, bad Laura's gone.

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Molaholic 8451 desperate attention whore postings
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11-20-09, 04:52 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10"
Production #1-4

Enough with the HII foolishness. How about making it a total surprise and not let us know RussHell found it again. Also -- the Powers.That.Be really need to look up the word "hidden".

Going off the board for a moment -- Question on the Purple Rock Process -- the way I understood it from Jiffy, if there is a second tie, the rest of the tribemates pull rocks. Does that include the person with Immunity? -- Now, wouldn't that just svck? (A major caveat to the phrase 'and safe for this week').

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Max Headroom 10028 desperate attention whore postings
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11-20-09, 05:16 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10"
the way I understood it from Jiffy, if there is a second tie, the rest of the tribemates pull rocks. Does that include the person with Immunity?

I wondered about that too. If Mick got sent home wearing the Immunity Necklace just because he drew the purple rock, that would svck beyond belief.

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Puffy 6571 desperate attention whore postings
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11-20-09, 07:38 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10"
Somewhere on this website and I'm not sure which thread, bashers, fanatics, or spoilers, I read that the person with immunity is not in the purple rock process. All the other players take part. Sorry that I can't find the link.



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by Smokeysmom

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KLicK 316 desperate attention whore postings
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11-20-09, 10:44 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10"
At TC Jeff clearly stated that the tied Survivors (Laura and Natalie) were immune from drawing rocks as well.

John's chances were 1/7 of going home with a 4/7 chance of being on the losing side of the draw.

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dabo 25344 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-09, 00:40 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10"
It's a confounding mess but here's what I found (courtesy of SquidProQuo):

If there is a tie between Contestants, then a second vote may be conducted in which all non-eliminated Contestants at the Tribal Council (other than the tied Contestants) must vote to eliminate one of such tied Contestant. This voting process may continue until one and only one Contestant is chosen for elimination. If, however, there is a deadlock in the voting as determined by the Producer in its sole discretion, then the following shall occur: (a) the Contestants who are tied with the same number of votes for elimination are separated from the other Contestants; and number of votes for elimination are separated from the other Contestants; and (b) the remaining, non-eliminated, non-tied, Contestants at the Tribal Council have two minutes to discuss and decide, in an open forum, which of the tied Contestants should be eliminated. If a decision is reached by the remaining, non-eliminated, non-tied, Contestants, the Contestant whom they have chosen for elimination is eliminated. On the other hand, if, after the two minute discussion, the remaining non-eliminated, non-tied, Contestants have not reached a decision as to which one of the tied Contestants should be eliminated, the following shall occur (subject to the clarification set forth below): the tied Contestants are now deemed to be immune from elimination at this Tribal Council, and the remaining, non-eliminated, non-tied, Contestants (with the sole exclusion of any remaining, non-tied, Contestant who has previously been granted immunity for this Tribal Council as a result of winning a Challenge) must choose a rock from a bag without looking inside of the bag. The Contestant who selects the differently colored rock is eliminated. In addition, and for purposes of clarification, if three or more Contestants are tied for elimination, and the voting Contestants are deadlocked, and the tied Contestants are separated from the remaining non-tied Contestants, and the remaining, non-eliminated, non-tied, Contestants decide during their initial two minute discussion that one or more of the tied Contestants should not be eliminated and yet, nevertheless, two or more Contestants remain tied, then the Contestant who was, or the Contestants who were, part of the tie, but who is or are no longer part of the tie, shall join the remaining, non-eliminated, non-tied Contestants for an additional two minute discussion regarding which of the Contestants who are still tied for elimination should be eliminated. (If this second two minute discussion results in a decision to not eliminate another one or more still-tied Contestants, and if nevertheless two or more Contestants remain tied for elimination, then a third two minute discussion shall be held among the remaining non-tied Contestants and all of the Contestants who have been removed from the tied group of Contestants. This process shall continue, and Contestants shall be removed from the tied group, and further two-minute discussions shall be held until the remaining, non-eliminated, non-tied, Contestants either (a) are deadlocked regarding all of the now-tied Contestants, or (b) choose one Contestant for elimination.) If two or more two-minute discussions as described above do not determine which one of the tied Contestants should be eliminated, then the rock-picking ceremony shall be held as set forth above, and any Contestants who were tied for elimination and who were subsequently brought back into the voting group as a result of a two minute discussion shall be required to participate in the rock-picking ceremony along with all of the other remaining, non-eliminated, non-tied, Contestants without immunity. (at least at this point in the game, but the run-on paragraph continues...)

However, the rock-picking tie breaker shall not apply to a tie that exists among the final four Contestants. In the event that a deadlock tie exists among the final four Contestants, the two Contestants who are tied shall compete against each other in a challenge to be decided in the sole discretion of the Producer. The Contestant who loses this competition shall be eliminated from further participation in the Series as a Contestant.

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Puffy 6571 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-09, 01:15 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10"
Wow, that's unreal. Can you imagine how long the entire contract must be? I imagine contestants are already chosen and sequestered by the time they have the contract to read. Who would read the entire thing and who wouldn't sign by that time in the process?


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by Smokeysmom

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Colonel Zoidberg 3645 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-09, 12:03 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10"
Production: They do, in fact, need to make the idols harder to find. Somewhere between Fiji difficulty, in which a backhoe was needed to retrieve the idol, and this, where Russell seems to have been given the exact GPS coordinates to find it.

Contestant: John misplays the whole situation. It's like this, and I'll try to make this reading easier than the notes on the tiebreaker...

We have a 5-5 deadlock - five Galu votes Natalie, and five Foa Foa Plus One votes Satan, I mean Laura. Mick has immunity, which means that we know, going in, that we're going to have a dealock, and Mick, since he's smart enough to get through medical school, is smart enough to know that this isn't the time to be a maverick and give up immunity.

If you're on Galu, the smart move is to assume that Russell has yet another hidden immunity idol, never mind that he had to rely on cartoon logic to find it. Therefore, the only safe votes are Jaison, Natalie, and Shambo. We've concluded that the Galu Fivesome is voting for Natalie.

On the flip side, Foa Foa knows that Shambo will vote for Laura even if Laura sends the Extreme Makeover team to build her a beach house. Therefore, Foa Foa, being smart, follows suit and votes Laura as well, creating a tie. By rule, if there's a tie vote, they vote again, and if that doesn't break the tie, anyone without immunity draws a rock - EXCEPT Natalie and Laura, the people with votes.

Mick has immunity. Mick is a Foa Foa. Therefore, if it comes to rock-picking, there's a 4/7 chance that someone from the Galu Fivesome is out. However, there's a 3/7 chance that a Foa Foa Plus One is out - and a 1/7 chance that Russell is out.

FACT: Russell is a multimillionaire who is very smart. He found two idols without assistance and a third with trickery. Russell will not put his own life into a game of Survivor Roulette. Therefore, the fact that he did not play his idol at TC means he's sure John's with him.

FACT: Idols are played after the vote, so if Russell plays it, John can't change his vote. HOWEVER, they're played BEFORE the second vote.

FACT: If Russell plays his idol, that means that, with five people voting Natalie, the only two people from his side who can be eliminated are Jaison and Shambo, meaning that the Galus are now facing 2-1 odds that someone from their side is going home with a rock-pick. It also means that Russell has telegraphed that he's not sure John's on his side - but is giving the Galus horrible odds. In this situation, it means most likely doom for John's side if he doesn't flip, and a 1/6 chance that John himself goes. People don't make 2-1 bets with their own lives in real life.

FACT: Russell did not play his idol, meaning he was sure John was with him. Therefore, if John wanted to out-Russell Russell, now was the time to do so. With only a 14% chance of going home and less unfavorable odds, John could force a tie and cross his fingers. Granted, it's a devastating move if it fails, but it breaks open the game for the Galus if it succeeds.

FACT: Laura's now out of the game, so there is a slim chance of bringing back Shambo into the Galu fold. However, Shambo trusts Russell more than she does any of the Galus, and they now have the advantage. If John's looking to get Galu back into the game, he has to rely on Shambo to do so. I wouldn't rely on Shambo to count to ten in under an hour if my life depended on it; John's making a very dangerous move in trusting Shambo. But it's his only hope.

FACT: Bill Belichick just got roasted by the media for going for a fourth-and-2 when the odds say that, most of the time, the Patriots make that fourth down and run out the clock. He had a better chance of winning had he gone for it. This was John's fourth-and-2, and he punted.

FACT: Russell is the Peyton Manning of Survivor. With a minute and a half and a long field, he can burn any team, and John's hoping that his defense (Shambo) holds. Trusting Shambo to flip on Russell is like trusting Peyton Manning not to make a last-second comeback. In John's situation, I would have gone for it on fourth down. John punted. And he's a fool for doing so.

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Tublecane 141 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-09, 03:07 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10"
"HOWEVER, they're played BEFORE the second vote...If Russell plays his idol, that means that, with five people voting Natalie, the only two people from his side who can be eliminated are Jaison and Shambo"

Is this true? I mean, in the sense that Hidden Immunity Idols can protect you from tie-breaker votes? I thought it only protected you from the votes that were cast in the first round, not votes yet to come. If it's as you say, that seems like a pretty big loophole.

"Russell did not play his idol, meaning he was sure John was with him."

The reason he did not play it, I think, is not because he banked on John. Most likely, he didn't play it because he knew it would be worthless to do so (assuming it can't protect him from the tie-breaker). If Galu targeted him, someone could still flip on the second vote. And if the second vote was the same, he would be immune from the rock-picking ceremony anyway. It was all about him, personally.

"John's making a very dangerous move in trusting Shambo. But it's his only hope."

Not his only hope. There's still Dave, Monica, Brett, Jaison, Natalie, Russell, and Mick in the game. Natalie probably won't turn on Russell, but others in Foa-Foa might (eventually). Flipping isn't likely until the Foa-Foa 5 start worrying about eachother, which could very likely be after John's out of the game. But there are options.

Two factors led to John's decision, in my opinion. One was the purple rock. The other was his fear of the Galu pecking order. He thought floating his name without his permission was a sign of danger. Granted, he has a better relationship with Dave and Brett than any Foa-Foas, and a better chance to turn the tables later on from a power position. My guess is, either way (i.e. rock or no rock), he was at risk to go out at F5 or F6. I get that too clever(relative to other Galuans)/immunity threat feel from John.

"Bill Belichick just got roasted by the media for going for a fourth-and-2 when the odds say that, most of the time, the Patriots make that fourth down and run out the clock. He had a better chance of winning had he gone for it. This was John's fourth-and-2, and he punted."

The Patriot's chances were, what, 60% on the conversion? Galu's chances, without Russell's idol, were 4 out of 7, or 57%. Very close. However, you can roughly calculate the odds of Payton Manning scoring from here or there on the football field. Too many variables when it comes to calculating odds of regaining power after F10. How does one figure how likely Shambo, Russell, Mick, Jaison, and Natalie are to play ball?

I like the Patriot metaphor, but it ignores one other thing. Namely, the 14% chance John is dead immediately. Maybe there's something similar for the Patriots. An interception returned for a touchdown? No, that would give them plenty of time to score again. I can't see a parallel. John picks the rock, game over. That's tough.


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vince3 17341 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-09, 03:40 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10"
Tie-breaker votes are only going to have those that are tied be eligible to be voted on again.

In this case: Laura and Natalie are the only ones that are eligible to be voted for on the re-vote, and (since they would automatically vote for the opposite one, cancelling each other out.... unless they commit Survivor suicide....) they are not allowed to vote themselves.

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Colonel Zoidberg 3645 desperate attention whore postings
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11-23-09, 07:15 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10"
Is this true? I mean, in the sense that Hidden Immunity Idols can protect you from tie-breaker votes? I thought it only protected you from the votes that were cast in the first round, not votes yet to come. If it's as you say, that seems like a pretty big loophole.

I don't quite understand the rule 100%, but there would be no additional votes to protect Russell from. In a tiebreak, by rule, no one could vote for Russell, since he would not be one of the tied players. However, with an immunity idol, would he have to draw a rock? He has immunity, so my understanding would be that, no, he does not draw a rock. Same as Mick, who had individual immunity.

The reason he did not play it, I think, is not because he banked on John. Most likely, he didn't play it because he knew it would be worthless to do so (assuming it can't protect him from the tie-breaker). If Galu targeted him, someone could still flip on the second vote. And if the second vote was the same, he would be immune from the rock-picking ceremony anyway. It was all about him, personally.

If the second vore came up 4-4 between Natalie and Laura, by rule, everyone but Natalie, Laura, and Mick would have drawn a rock. With an idol in play, Russell would be in the mix of people who do not draw rocks. That's, at least, how I understand it.

Not his only hope. There's still Dave, Monica, Brett, Jaison, Natalie, Russell, and Mick in the game. Natalie probably won't turn on Russell, but others in Foa-Foa might (eventually). Flipping isn't likely until the Foa-Foa 5 start worrying about eachother, which could very likely be after John's out of the game. But there are options.

No one's going to flip until next round. It's pretty well assured that, unless Shambo flips her gourd, a Galu's going next week. And even if she does, Russell's staying put unless they concoct the mother of all blindsides, and I don't see that happening. Besides, Shambo's in Russell's pocket, as is Natalie; I don't care what the previews say. With that in mind, John's an easy target - he flipped, so Galu doesn't trust him, and he's a potential physical threat. A Galu can win the game. I just don't see it being John.

Two factors led to John's decision, in my opinion. One was the purple rock. The other was his fear of the Galu pecking order. He thought floating his name without his permission was a sign of danger. Granted, he has a better relationship with Dave and Brett than any Foa-Foas, and a better chance to turn the tables later on from a power position. My guess is, either way (i.e. rock or no rock), he was at risk to go out at F5 or F6. I get that too clever(relative to other Galuans)/immunity threat feel from John.

Basically, John panicked. Galu seemed to be floating him down the river, and he got Lex-style paranoid about a few stray votes that don't make a damn bit of difference and would have led to absolutely nothing and decided to let his gut do the talking. Not smart, grasshopper.

He could be the logical F5/F6 boot. But this way, he seems to have made himself the next to go by being on the outside of Foa Foa looking in and by burning Galu.

The Patriot's chances were, what, 60% on the conversion? Galu's chances, without Russell's idol, were 4 out of 7, or 57%. Very close. However, you can roughly calculate the odds of Payton Manning scoring from here or there on the football field. Too many variables when it comes to calculating odds of regaining power after F10. How does one figure how likely Shambo, Russell, Mick, Jaison, and Natalie are to play ball?

I like the Patriot metaphor, but it ignores one other thing. Namely, the 14% chance John is dead immediately. Maybe there's something similar for the Patriots. An interception returned for a touchdown? No, that would give them plenty of time to score again. I can't see a parallel. John picks the rock, game over. That's tough.

I don't recall the exact percentages of go for it vs. punt, but I do recall that the Pats had a higher chance to win the game by going for it. I do know that, in both Pats vs. Colts and Foa Foa vs. Galu, there are a lot of variables. Going for it on fourth-and-2 could have worked. Or someone could have picked off Tom Brady and ran a Pick Six back and ended it right there. That seems a little more likely than the Colts running a punt back for a TD. It's not quite on par with "John draws the purple rock and he's dogmeat right then and there" but there are risks associated with any move, even the safe ones.

There's no definitive game-killer on that fourth-and-two that would end it for the Pats on that play. Granted, the Pats could have self-destructed, i.e. a Pick Six run back for a TD, and then the Pats fumble the ensuing kickoff, but the odds are a bit less than 14%. That's why the analogy isn't perfect. And we can speculate all day on "get Russell to cough up the HII" or "tell Foa Foa we're in to get rid of Laura right then and there" or "flush out the idol" or anything, but that's the same as arguing that Laurence Maroney or Randy Moss would have gotten those two extra yards.

I just think John's chances might have been better had he stuck with Galu. Sure, he's an F5 casualty, but he's also a great physical threat, and Laura's gone before him, so between Brett, John, Monica, and Dave, let's just say his odds of winning immunity at F5 and F4 are not exactly long.

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Tublecane 141 desperate attention whore postings
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11-23-09, 08:02 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10"
I forgot for a moment that the re-vote has to be between the top vote-getters. As for Russell being immune from rock-picking, I'm pretty sure Hidden Immunity Idols apply only to votes. If you have it, the votes against you are cancelled. That's it.

Unfortunately, we've only seen the rocks once, and back then they didn't ave HIIs. So we can't be sure, without seeing the official Samoa rules.

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Brownroach 14241 desperate attention whore postings
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12-02-09, 06:54 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10"
I'm pretty sure Hidden Immunity Idols apply only to votes. If you have it, the votes against you are cancelled. That's it.

I don't think so. A Hidden Immunity idol should make you immune from being eliminated at that TC once you play it. If Russell had played his idol before the first round of votes was read, he would have remained immune for the duration, even if it went to rock-picking.

I wonder, though, if one of the tied persons can play the HII before the second round of votes is read. Say Natalie really did have possession of the the HII but she didn't play it on the first round. Could she have played it on the second round, thus causing Laura to get eliminated even if the votes remained tied?

I kind of think not, because someone (Russell) could pass the HII to Natalie before the revote, now that they know she needs it. That doesn't really seem fair.


A tribe glows in Brooklyn

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Tublecane 141 desperate attention whore postings
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11-23-09, 08:07 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10"
LAST EDITED ON 11-23-09 AT 08:09 PM (EST)

"between Brett, John, Monica, and Dave, let's just say his odds of winning immunity at F5 and F4 are not exactly long."

Point taken. But you have to factor in the fact that John was spooked by the ploy to float his name to Foa-Foa. He thought, and I tend to agree, that it revealed his place in the heirarchy. Let's say Galu wins the rock-picking. Laura's still there and still knows John's role in targeting Monica back before the Erik ouster. There's a chance John goes out before one of the Foas, maybe even as early as F7.

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dabo 25344 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-09, 11:08 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10"
And that wasn't even his biggest mistake.

Contestant #2: John. For striking a deal with Russell that a FoaFoa would be the next to be voted off. For a smart guy that was a dumb deal. Russell doesn't need John's vote after this, has no reason to keep John around as long as he can rely on Shambo. (Not that Shambo is all that reliable.)

I can't fault John for accurately assessing the inane Galu strategists and scrambling to improve his chances, but what's he going to do if Russell tells him to vote next time for Monica or Dave or Brett? John doesn't have any bargaining power left to enforce the deal.

Ask for something else.

"Tell you what, Russell, give me the HII and there won't even be a first tie vote."


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Tublecane 141 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-09, 11:18 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10"
"John. For striking a deal with Russell that a FoaFoa would be the next to be voted off. For a smart guy that was a dumb deal. Russell doesn't need John's vote after this, has no reason to keep John around as long as he can rely on Shambo."

John never believed that deal would work. He said as much. He just thought he had to get something, anything, from him. Like when Russell stupidly offered to give Laura the Hidden Idol at F7 if she helped him. It's something Survivors do.

"but what's he going to do if Russell tells him to vote next time for Monica or Dave or Brett?"

Option #1: pull Shambo into the remaining Galus and fight for your life, this time using a believable ploy (i.e. don't use Monica as double agent).
Option #2: Lick Foa-Foa's boots until you can act as swing vote. I suggest warning Mick and Jaison about Russell's magic powers and never-ending idols.

"Tell you what, Russell, give me the HII and there won't even be a first tie vote."

First, he doesn't know Russell has the idol (though he was STILL the only one to strategize around it with his fellow Galus). Second, Russell knew John thought he needed Russell more than Russell needed John. Third, Russell can replace an idol in the blink of an eye.

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dabo 25344 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-09, 11:43 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10"
Almost everything you say is valid. But Russell can't replace the HII if John has it and doesn't play it. Bargaining power. As it is Russell doesn't need to do anything with the HII now, just keep it in his pocket so no one else can get it.
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Tublecane 141 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-09, 01:47 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: S19 Gufu Award: Week 10"
LAST EDITED ON 11-22-09 AT 01:48 AM (EST)

"But Russell can't replace the HII if John has it and doesn't play it."

That's true. Maybe John would play it right away, though. And what about Erik's idol? Is that gone forever?

I understand John's incentive for asking for the idol, assuming he guesses Russell has it. But Russell could easily say he doesn't have it. Or just plain no. And John's right back to where he was.

At least with the stupid "deal" he made, he got Russell to go on the record promising him something. Russell can't as easily come back and say they never had an alliance, and that John voted on his own. Not that it'd matter. Russell can ignore John without any reason at all. Not like anyone will care if he broke a promise he only made to avoid a tiebreaker.

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