Yup, we've got another Wednesday episode thanks to March Madness, so here's the Monday edition of the voting thread.

The Rules

1. Please put the name of your choice for this week's bootee IN THE SUBJECT HEADING! This is really easy. Just erase the bit where it says "Re: SurvivorBlows Tribe, It's Time to Vote!" and replace with your vote, i.e., Christy. This makes it easier to tally votes quickly and accurately. Oh, and btw... nicknames are tougher to tally unless they're REALLY obvious without actually reading your vote.

2. Reply ONLY to this post! Curves on women are good. Curves on vote threads are bad. The first part bears repeating: I like curves on women.

EXCEPTION TO RULE 2! VOTE CHANGES!

If it just so happens that you wanna change your vote for whatever reason, REPLY TO YOUR ORIGINAL POST! Your new post heading should read "VOTE CHANGE: Dave (or Whoever)". That said, there is not exception to the fact that curves on women are good.

3. THIS IS NOT A DISCUSSION THREAD! DO NOT TREAT IT AS SUCH! There are plenty of places on the Spoilers Forum to debate the merits of people's arguments. Let's keep it out of here, please.

4. No sig pics! It was suggested that because this can be such a long thread, sig pics make it really hard to load for folks with dial-up connections. So show some respect to your slower brethren (and sistren).

And, of course, happy voting.

Criminals From the Neck Up

• Alex,RudyRules, 09:18 PM, 03-24-03
• Dave,SherpaDave, 09:49 PM, 03-24-03
  • Vote Change: Deena,SherpaDave, 06:38 PM, 03-26-03
• ROGER,koki, 10:43 PM, 03-24-03
• Alex,forehead, 10:43 PM, 03-24-03
• Alex,djandy, 10:56 PM, 03-24-03
• Alex,ejm92, 11:18 PM, 03-24-03
• Alex,smokedog, 11:33 PM, 03-24-03
• ROGER,BMH, 11:35 PM, 03-24-03
• Double Dealing Rob,Yogi, 11:39 PM, 03-24-03
• Alex,Loree, 11:42 PM, 03-24-03
• Christy - DEATH TO CHILLONE!!,bergdogg, 00:58 AM, 03-25-03
• Alex,skyisbluu, 01:02 AM, 03-25-03
• Alex,J Slice, 01:25 AM, 03-25-03
• Dave,phonarr, 01:36 AM, 03-25-03
• Alex,Krautboy, 02:18 AM, 03-25-03
• ALEX...finally!!!,tribephyl, 04:31 AM, 03-25-03
• Alex,IceCat, 04:36 AM, 03-25-03
• Alex,SurvivinDawg, 06:04 AM, 03-25-03
• Alex,railfan, 06:18 AM, 03-25-03
• Alex,bebekid, 04:27 PM, 03-25-03
• Alex,s_man, 04:29 PM, 03-25-03
• Alex,wendyp, 04:30 PM, 03-25-03
• ALEX,jkokoj, 04:33 PM, 03-25-03
• Dave,L82LIFE, 04:36 PM, 03-25-03
• Alex,NTK, 04:37 PM, 03-25-03
• alex,smiles, 04:49 PM, 03-25-03
• Alex,TeamJoisey, 04:53 PM, 03-25-03
• Rob,Thaibeach, 04:56 PM, 03-25-03
  • Vote Change: DAVE,Thaibeach, 12:18 PM, 03-26-03
• Alex,blacknwhitedog, 04:56 PM, 03-25-03
• Alex,Q, 04:58 PM, 03-25-03
• Alex,SteffiGurl, 05:14 PM, 03-25-03
• Dave,Cin, 05:21 PM, 03-25-03
• Alex,survivorscott, 05:30 PM, 03-25-03
• Alex,Bebo, 05:37 PM, 03-25-03
• Deena,Wacko Jacko, 05:44 PM, 03-25-03
• DALEX,VerucaSalt, 05:45 PM, 03-25-03
• Rob,justme99, 05:54 PM, 03-25-03
• ALEX,anotherkim, 06:16 PM, 03-25-03
• Alex,Boilermaker, 06:21 PM, 03-25-03
• A-L-E-X,BaquaR13, 07:37 PM, 03-25-03
• ALEX,lovetowatch, 07:47 PM, 03-25-03
• Alex .... again !!!!!,katem, 08:51 PM, 03-25-03
• Alex,I_AM_HE, 09:44 PM, 03-25-03
• HEY ALEX...,Round Robin, 10:32 PM, 03-25-03
• Alex,munson, 10:36 PM, 03-25-03
• Deena,Jims02, 10:49 PM, 03-25-03
• Dave,mavsfan, 11:58 PM, 03-25-03
• Alex,Rain Crow, 00:30 AM, 03-26-03
• Alex,sleeeve, 00:57 AM, 03-26-03
• Rocket Boy,evanakm, 01:24 AM, 03-26-03
• ALEX,LeftPinky, 08:18 AM, 03-26-03
• Alex,dabo, 09:07 AM, 03-26-03
• Alex,snoocharoo, 09:21 AM, 03-26-03
• Alex,SurvivaBear, 09:50 AM, 03-26-03
• Deena,jennk, 10:01 AM, 03-26-03
• Alex,PepeLePew13, 10:04 AM, 03-26-03
• Vote Tally #1,SurvivaBear, 10:09 AM, 03-26-03
• Alas Alex,AresMars, 10:46 AM, 03-26-03
• Alex,wildchickenhunter, 10:51 AM, 03-26-03
• Alex,DoodleBug, 11:11 AM, 03-26-03
• One more for Alex,ulalame, 11:25 AM, 03-26-03
• Dave,Brownroach, 11:58 AM, 03-26-03
• DAVE,VanQ1, 12:05 PM, 03-26-03
• Dave,waterbug, 12:14 PM, 03-26-03
• Alex,zzz, 12:22 PM, 03-26-03
• Dave,GuessItRains, 12:29 PM, 03-26-03
• Dave,Chez, 12:40 PM, 03-26-03
• Alex,jsanb, 02:27 PM, 03-26-03
• Alex,janisella, 02:41 PM, 03-26-03
• Dave,specie, 02:52 PM, 03-26-03
• Dave,lizzmac, 02:54 PM, 03-26-03
• Alex,samboohoo, 02:56 PM, 03-26-03
• Alex,ShowMeTheWinner, 03:41 PM, 03-26-03
• Alex,moonbaby, 03:42 PM, 03-26-03
• Alex,Peteycat, 03:47 PM, 03-26-03
• Alex...,MDSkinner, 03:59 PM, 03-26-03
• Alex,NorthOfBoston, 04:12 PM, 03-26-03
• Dave,travelingbetty, 05:11 PM, 03-26-03
• ALEX,bobstew617, 07:52 PM, 03-26-03
• The Bell has rung!,FSUGUY, 07:54 PM, 03-26-03
• ROGER,George Tirebiter, 09:26 PM, 03-26-03

OK, THIS week Alex, this week!
Alternate: Roger

Another opportunity to put my name up there.

Because my original vote wasn't nearly far enough UTR.

Criminals From the Neck Up

There is real good evidence of others being voted off, like Krautboy's excellent analysis, but Im gonna go with the "viewer only/non spoilers" gut and go with Roger

See KB's vidcap thread.

Alex would be the strong player usually voted off at the merge, but that would also apply to Dave, who is both strong and smart. Alternate: Dave

I just love Krautboy's analysis.

Thanks Krautboy!

I just feel the need to be different and I don't see why He can't go..He is just as much a target as Alex, I hope more so

Janet had some nice things to say about Rob though they never spent any time in the game together. Only one room left at LL.

I am going to vote now in case I get too busy and forget to do it. Alex seems like the obvious. But then I said that about Shawna the week Jeanne went.

MY SOURCES GARANTEE THAT CHRISTY GOES THIS WEEK!!! SO UNLESS HEIDI GET A SICK IN HER EAR AND GOES DEAF FROM IT, CHILLONE DIES WEDNESDAY!!!

(Actually, I have no source, or no chance of getting this weeks boot correct.)

Alt selection is Keith Famie. Alt Alt is Roger.

"This, unfortunately, is the high point of my day" - Lester Burnham
Me and Heidi Strobel share the same birthday!!!! GO HEIDI!!!

Roger seems so obvious to me, I guess that I want to go with the underdog...

Now he's free to leave and... em... "enjoy Shawna's company" in LL

After reading Krautboy's vidcap thread I was sure it was Alex, but how can I argue with Sherp's reasoning?

n/m

Most likely Roger is the boot candidate. Yet, KB makes me think he wins IC.

Therefore, Merge or non-Merge, Alex is the biggest threat at Jaburu and may suffer from the events of a merge as well.

Caio! Bello! I wish I could've gotten to know thee. But you have Shawna the "side-show sloth" to look forward to.

tribephyl

Because KD said they would go one after the other...

CBS changed its poll question from a Shawna/Alex one to one about the merge, thus "freeing up" Alex to be the bootee.

I considered Roger, but the previews, et. al. suggest Alex this week and Roger next week.

P.S. What, Krautboy, no long post? Whassup wit' DAT?!?!

It's what the spoilers say (but they said Shawna two weeks ago and Alex last week, so who knows?).

Alex

Again.

I think they will go for the IC threat.

Thank goodness I am able to get back in here! I was having a heart attack waiting!

Just to be different. Plus, Larry made him Male Diva of the Week-and we all know what that means!

Reasons from last week still apply.

My alt. pick is Dave, but I am going with the spoiler that Alex goes pre-jury. This is his only opportunity to do so.

LAST EDITED ON 03-25-03 AT 10:46 PM (EST)

I read it in SOTS

*Edited to remove sig pic, since I always read the rules last.

Just to be different.

Second choice: Alex.

brownroach convinced me.

boot- Alex

IC winner- Roger

Alex

IC winner - Deena

Don't know why...

Cin

I'm feeling Alex

Come in a stranger,leave a little stranger

I just posted my logic here: Who Are the Targets, so there's no need to repeat myself.

I am going against all of you.

Logic tells me. Men 6 - Women 4 that a women is going this week and i am just following past Survivor patterns. The person that goes in this spot is generally always the biggest threat from the original tribes with less members. The guys will keep Heidi and Jenna because they are 'cute' and Christy because they have grown to admire her. Next week the men start to fight over who goes and the alliance breaks but this week Deena is an easy choice for them all to agree on.

Can I combine them?

My semi knowing brain - Alex
My yanking gut - Dave
My mouth - (sigh)

alternate Dave

Because I don't want it to be Alex....and

Several people at LL have listed Rob as people that they liked, most notably Janet who never even met him. This would be the last week for him to join them.

He has had a lot of face time and his story as a schemer has been developed.

Also from the website teaser "One Survivor's smooth talk with the ladies irks Rob, who vows to target the suave tribe member." So maybe Rob targets someone and it backfires on him.

I am theorizing that when the tribes are brought back together that his scheming will come out in the open. I remember someone last week or the week before mentioning that Alex was in an alliance with Dave, Roger and Butch. Alex was already clued into Rob's playing everyone and I think that the open discussion at Jaburu last week about who to boot will come back to bite Rob. It looked like Rob, Deena and Jenna had indicated that they would be voting together since the discussion was centered on which of the other three they would be voting against.

He and Shawna can now focus on some jungle love.

Hate being part of the herd after the herd has gotten slaughtered twice in a row. Third time a charm???

not as sure as i thought i would be...

Going with the flow...

I have a bad feeling about David though.

*My siggie goes here*

although justme makes a pretty good argument for Rob, he's not someone I had been remotey considering before that post, and I think its a bit too early for the inevitable backfire

...it's time for you to go!

If I was listening to my gut, I'd say Dave but the Alex evidence is just toooooo strong.

LAST EDITED ON 03-26-03 AT 06:58 AM (EST)

I know this seems silly and stupid, but I'm tired of seeing all those Alex votes...

Something's been bothering my gut lately about this boot.

Particularly this quote from Deena:

"They must think we're so stupid"

("We" meaning the women)

My gut is SCREAMING that this is misdirection on CBS's part. Maybe they put in this scene to make us see that Deena has a trick up her sleeeve (hey eee!)

...But maybe she DOESN'T have a trick up her sleeeve.

Who's the biggest threat to the men?

DEENA! (similar to the Gretchen boot of S1)

Alt: Alex

Darn sig (edit)

Ryan stated Dave would regret voting with Rogers alliance. The only way Ryan could know that Daves alliance was a mistake is if Dave joins Ryan at loser lodge. -- So Dave gets voted out this week.

Rob felt disrespected by being sent to the other team in the swap and blamed Dave. Deena will vote however Rob want's to vote, as long as a guy goes home. -- So Dave gets voted out this week.

Heidi will jump back to Jenna's alliance when they merge, making the teams 5-4-1 (Alex being the wildcard). If Rob targets Alex, he risks Alex jumping to Dave's alliance creating a 5-5 tie. It's much more in Rob's interest to target Dave, keeping Alex onboard with a promise of a final 3 position. So Dave gets voted out this week.

Also think Roger will win Immunity.

Rain Crow

Seems logical... the men were already gunning for him before the swap, and now, with two less women, it would be safe to eliminate a man from the game and still have numerical advantage.

Similarly, the people on new Jaburu will be willing to get rid of him, just as they were willing to vote out Shawna.

So basically, Alex's only chance is to win immunity... and he only has a 1 in 10 chance of that... so let's assume that he doesn't win... see ya!

To be different but still reasonable

Following the German...becoming a habit

alt. Dave.

n/m

The majority can't be wrong three weeks in a row, can they? Anyway, the Alex/Shawna relationship spoiler points to his rapid exit.

Alex seems like too obvious of a choice.

She's a threat to the men and I don't think they will like her.

Factors:

~ The Alex-Shawna dating rumours that they first hooked up at LoserLodge -- is 3 or 4 days enough for them to truly hook up to the point where they are convinced they're right for each other? DanaH spoiler suggested they hooked up at the resort.

~ Ryan's chat stating that Dave "will regret" his decision to not oust Roger -- this sounds to me like Ryan is expressing out of bitterness that Dave will get what's coming to him, but they haven't had a chance to reconcile in LL (or he'd say Dave "regrets"...)

~ There's a possibility that Roger wins IC because of all the misdirection going on with CBS and the promos.

~ I don't think Deena's storyline has been built up enough (although that didn't stop Jeanne from being booted 2 eps ago).

~ I haven't seen enough of a story with Matthew nor was there any hint of a promo relating to him to make me think he's a boot candidate yet.

~ I can't see Butch, Christy, Jenna, Heidi and Rob going just yet.

So that leaves Alex as the most logical candidate for tonight's boot.

This is post #58, tallying 57 votes (and still no rule breakers).

Alex . . . . 40.5 (thanks alot Veruca)
Dave . . . . 6.5
Rob . . . . . 3
Deena . . . . 3
Roger . . . . 2
Christy . . . 1

All others are still UTR.

Enjoy Shawna Alex.

God Bless America

There are two types of people, predators and prey, and the sound you hear is the sharpening of my claws.

Not doing very well this year, but I will go with Alex two weeks in a row, like I did with Shawna.

Going with the majority... how pathetic is that?! But my gut says it is time for him to go.

In addition to all the persuasive spoiler analysis this week, the interview with Shawna implying she didn't see Roger in LL and perhaps did spend time with Alex there, has me convinced it's Alex this week.

I'm voting with SherpaDave, for his namesake.

I'm not biting at the Alex "spoilers" this week, because I think they rely too heavily on the notion that he must be at LL with Shawna. Shawna's "save his butt" comment may have been her reaction to that specific vote and nothing else. The BostonGuy intel that Alex gets taken out by Rob/Jenna/Heidi can still come true in another week or two.

And JP said this about Alex early on: "He's had a lot of life experiences, and he had a level head throughout the Survivor' experience.''

I can't picture JP saying this about someone who he basically didn't see for the last half of the game. I suspect "level-headed" Alex won't let Shawna's departure screw up his chances to get further.

I doubt Jaburu would begrudge Alex for not voting for Shawna; he even told them he was voting for Matt. And I can't see Butch/Roger/Dave being upset that Alex voted against Matt, if they find out -- Matt was on the outs in old Tambaqui, and the guys would still want him gone soon since he's an IC threat.

So. Deena and Rob will set their sights on insufferable, bossy Roger, and Dave: future IC threat, leader of the Enemy Tribe, and suave Golden Boy who banished Rob from Tambaqui.

Roger will be edited as the primary target, but we have this recent quote from Shawna:

As for the other Bay Area contestant, Roger Sexton, Mitchell said she only saw him at the challenges. "Since we were never on the same team, I never talked to him..."

Sounds like she never got to know Roger outside their time in the game. Krautboy's vidcap spec also makes a good case that Roger wins IC.

So Dave becomes the eventual target. Jenna owes him nothing: he stole Heidi from her. Heidi doesn't owe him: he twisted her arm into voting with the Tambaqui men, who ignored her afterward in favor of Christy. Matt will go along with his new alliance partner Rob, and Alex should be on board as well, recognizing the IC threat Dave will be down the line.

Rob will hoodwink Dave, Butch, and Roger into thinking the men are all back together and are going to use their 6 votes to take out Deena. Where Christy fits in is anybody's guess, but her vote is not crucial to either faction so she may get left out of the loop altogether.

Shawna also says this:

`I lost 22 pounds in the Amazon and when I was voted off, the producers told me that I needed to eat well and take care of myself. I had three Snicker bars, a Coke and a beer and just chilled,'' Mitchell says. ``I literally gained 35 pounds in the three weeks after I was voted off.

We also have a weight gain spoiler for Dave. He can spend his time chunking up at LL with Shawna, while renewing his friendship with Ryan, who said:

Dave and myself have a very very unique relationship and it's hard to explain... Dave is a stand up guy and we made a good bond and a great friendship.

No one at LL (except Shawna) has indicated they have any kind of relationship with Alex.

The Jeanne and Shawna boots resulted from relatively uncomplicated circumstances, and I think the same will be true this week. An Alex boot seems too unwieldy to orchestrate. Dave and Roger are the least complicated and the most desirable targets, if new Jaburu does the simple thing and sticks together, roping Heidi back in. Alex can be taken out after new Tambaqui's numbers get reduced.

Dave and Roger both fit game logic and OFG theory. But we have indications that Roger does not go to LL, so it makes the most sense that Dave gets the boot.

Unless Alex goes. Still time to change my mind (but not much).

going with my gut, not my brain this time...
All evidence says Alex, but I think the biggest threat at the merge is Dave, ala Gretchen.

Thanks Brownroach ... for being way more thorough than I am.

Hate to be a sheep, but here it goes anyway

1) I like BrownRoach's logic.
2) Dave's weight gain spoiler means he has to go soon. Now is as good a time as any.
3) I really want SherpaDave to be right one of these days!

Seems logical that new Jaburu will target him after the merge, assuming Roger wins immunity.

I woke up this morning thinking 100% Alex would go next, but game theory to me says that the girl's could use his vote for a turn. But I am sticking with Alex and belieiving that Christy, Heidi, Deena, Jenna, Rob and Matt vote Alex out. Dave is next.

But now I am not so sure.

Peanut Butter Jeff
A Disciple of John Nash

Baaa

Alex too easy. He also could pull some strings or do something devious to save himself, whereas Dave insists on playing the game straight up - not the time to be doing that!

--specie

Last week, I would have bet money Alex would be gone this week. But I became less convinced as the week went on - the "distraught Survivor" thing from CBS is too out-front for me.

I do think Heidi will re-band with Jenna et al. and the eventual target will come from New Tambaqui. I think it probably would be Roger, but I'm a believer in Roger-as-IC winner.

Next most logical boot is Dave, as a physical threat at the merge.

Lizzmac
(hoping like HECK to get off this losing streak I'm on)

Because Deena, Jenna, Heidi, Rob and Matt will vote for him.

Roger, Butch, Alex and Dave will probably vote for Matt and Christy will vote for Jenna.

So many targets this week. Alex, Dave, Roger, Deena. Eeny, Meeny, Miney, Mo. Krautboy and Shawna's chat convinced me it's Alex.

Hope this boy keeps away from knives in the kitchen at Loser Lodge!

Because the spoilers on this board.

No other choice for this one.

That machete chop to the head scrambled your priorities, and you should have stayed strong with the men instead of trying to get into Shawna's pants! Mental clarity aside, you are still a triathalon trainer and too big of a threat.

ps: Heidi is the one distraught over the loss of Shawna

Time for the coed group to break up the all men's team.

He'll be glad to get back to his sweetie at LL.

Alex and Shawna K I S S I N G in LOSER LODGE!

Hey, I like being able to vote when I know the right answer!

*pokes the sleepy Webby with a stick*

GT