If Troyzan stands up to play his idol then Kim will know if she needs to play hers.
- If they voted against him, she should simply follow Troy to Jeff's podium and hand him the second idol.

- If they voted for someone else, she remains seated and knows that Troy doesn't trust her anymore.

Six of what?

Jay emphasizes they need 6 to stay in control of the game. With Alicia and Kat both present but looking down, is he believing that one of these two (probably Alicia) is the target and trying to convey the message to Troy that they need 6 to ensure control? We all remember the failed alliance of 4 strong men at the beginning because they couldn't count...

"A major player gets played"
Obviously this narrows it down to: Troy, Jay, Kim, Chelsea.

I feel like these promos are so bent on convincing us that it's a guy going home. If you notice, it always seems like the person who gets the boot wasn't really the focus of the promos. So...I bet you it's either Kim or Chelsea.

I can see that the girls target Troy and because he senses the threat, he plays his HII. This leaves Kim or Chelsea as the boot.

I'm just glad Jay is using something besides his mind this time to do the math:-p

I can't add pictures and things...but doesn't Jay and Chelsea look like twins separated at birth? They are both from the beautiful state of South Carolina...they say they are 25 and 26, but could be a ploy?

They are like the same person...faternal twins! Or maybe they are married? Sometimes married people look alike? Or should be married?

Sometimes married people look alike?

Only in hillbilly country... where they were related before marriage!

*runs*

All of the women are safe, a man will be going home this week, guaranteed.

Most fitting of the blindside threat boot is Michael or Jay, Jay has more OFG theory going for him this week.

Well, the vo clues:

VO: These women are torn between alliances. They show Chelsea, Kim, Kat, Sabrina....the girls from nu Salani...torn between their old tribe, and their new tribe.

Kim: (confessional) "I feel like it's time for the girls to take over this game." Kim wants to take out the guys, but will she be over-ridden?
VO: Who will they choose? See TROY....Will Troy be chosen as the target of the girls?
Troyzan: (confessional) "I want to stick with this group to the very end."
VO: Who will they betray? See Jay....will they choose Troy and betray Jay? Note that this is all about the girls and who they will betray...
Jay: (confessional) "They very well might come after me."
VO: It's the biggest Survivor shocker yet.
Kim: "We're about to make our move." So, the girls are making a move implying they will go after a guy, either Troyzan or Jay...
VO: A major player is about to get played. Once the voiceover tells us that a major player is about to get played, we see them show Chelsea, Troy, then end with Jay.....they are 3 out of the 4 major players...
Kim: (confessional) "We can start sending these guys home."
Jay: (confessional) "I think it's just a safe vote to knock out a girl." He is telling us that the guys will vote for someone benign, like Alicia or Christina....it's a "safe vote" to knock out a girl....
Kim: "This is never going to be the same, if we do this." They will draw the lines regarding their true alliances if they make the move, it will be clear that they will take out all of the guys, OR, that they will take out the nuManono tribe. Sounds like they are going after one of their allies,...Troy or Jay.

Who will they choose....TROY
Who will they betray....Jay
Who will be played...Chelsea, Troy, Jay

With all of the daws there, it's hard to say that they aren't all OFG candidates....hmmmm?

When Kim is here...

...when she says...Kim: (confessional) "We can start sending these guys home."

Then we see the guys....

Leif and Tarzan, followed by Michael and Jay...

Then Jay follows with voting off the girl is the safe vote.

I noticed when Kim says that we can start sending these guys home, that there is no picture of TROY! Is that misdirection, oversight, significant...?

I would also like to point out the promo may be foretelling. in the middle of the promo is this message.

Fallowed by this image

Every thing seems to point to Troy. Could this be misleading us?

Every thing seems to point to Troy. Could this be misleading us?

The promos tell us that one of the major players is going to be played. The promos indicate it will be either Troyzan, Jay, or Chelsea.

We know that Christina is the odd girl out. SHe was going to stay with Jonas, but Jonas bought his ticket out. Christina is the outlier, the one that is not in the alliance. She is the most likely to pull a Benedict Arnold.

Troy won the first immunity last week. If he doesn't win immunity this week, he has got to be on the women's radar. If they choose to go after Troy, perhaps Christina could give them a heads up. If she does at all, or if any of them let it slip, then Troy will play his idol, and whoever the guys vote for, would go home. If any of the guys get wind of the plan, Chelsea will go home. She is the only major player that is female that is hinted at in the promos, and she had a fitting confessional spike with the last episode.

Food for thought...

Chalsea is safe get used to it. A man will go home this week for sure.

The biggest man threat that is not in the alliance of 4 is Michael. Kim and Chalsea won't be booting Troy or Jay quite yet but if they do it would be Jay first. The other big target but it wouldn't really be a blindside by our standards is Tarzan as Chalsea despises him and he is next in line in the old moron tribe.

There won't be any idle play this week.

Arnold:

Chalsea is safe get used to it. A man will go home this week for sure.

Arnold....you do not know if Chelsea is safe or not, and you need to get used to it. You can speculate that she is safe, but you do not definitively know ANYTHING. So, quit being a jerk and state what is speculation. And, if you have inside information, like you hinted you did last week, then you need to note your source. So far, I don't see you as an independent thinker.

Kim and Chelsea won't be booting Troy or Jay quite yet but if they do it would be Jay first.

Again, that is your speculation or your opinion, and for what it's worth, you don't even give any rationale why you think it would be Jay first. If you don't have observations or rationale to back up your opinions you can keep them to yourself. We have made a good argument for it to be Troy....Troy won the first individual immunity challenge, while Jay did not. Troy is set up nicely for a big fall....not saying that will happen, but it is good spec. Clearly, if Kim and Chelsea decide to boot one of them, you could argue one or the other, imo. So, thinking that either could be targeted is logical....

If you think "Tarzan is a big target because Chalsea despises him", clearly you don't buy into editing much. I suggest you give it a read, you could learn something.

You don't know if there will be idol play this week either....Anyone can write anything they want on these boards but until you spell out logic or rationale, it's nothing.

In other words it's ok to state your opinion, but tell us why you think the way you do.

Neither Michael or Tarzan would be blindsides when the girls have the numbers, Tarzan is the most obnoxious guy out there, and Michael is the big physical presence and just showed how well he can do in challenges in the RC, not to mention that Jonas brought him up as the threat at TC....

I agree FP, stating Spec as fact and not being open to others speculation is not right. If Arnold has insider info He should state that. I am not sure he should out his source as that is the quickest way to lose a source. I suspect he is just overconfident in his opinion and not open to other opinions.

Although I feel the odds of a guy going home are greater than that of a girl, I for sure am open to (and hoping for) a girl to go home. I think Arnold's spec that it is Tarzan or Micheal is way off. My gut tells me it is either Troy of Jay with Troy being the more likely. But I could so see Christina flipping and one of the girls going home. I am not so sure I see Chelsea but it is possible.

A few thoughts-

Promo's have been pretty spot on this season, not as misleading.

Every tease of the next eppy is "shocking" "history making" and so on.

Thus, (shocking)-probably not. (a major player)-yes. I suspect the girls target one of their boy allies, Jay figures it out, but he can't pull together enough peeps to counter their plan and vote out a power girl instead.

You don't need to attack me or be rude FlowerPower I didn't think this site liked that kind of action.

From the editing and from my opinion as I have explained in other posts so sorry if I didn't repeat it all here for you:

Kim is obviously edited as the person we want to believe is in charge and Chalsea is her "right hand man". It makes perfect sense to believe that sense they are in two allainces post merge and both are strong (them and Jay/Troy and also in the all women) that they will call the shots and there is no real way for Jay and Troy to counter only trust it.

Sense Christina was vulnerable and Alicia in her old tribe the merge helped them and they are going to cling to the women, I don't see any indication that any man could talk them into swaying now that Colton is gone.

As for Tarzan he is no Philip and the girls (Chalsea and Kim) already got there goats in Kat and Alicia so why they need a man as a goat? Kim and Sabrina took note early that when the men stoled there stuff from the truck they new it was game on and they haven't forgotten that.

I wasn't bashing your opinion I just think it is pretty obvious so maybe yes I am cocky when I say a man is going home this week and that Chalsea is safe. But cocky is a long way from rude and mean.

As to why Jay is a bigger threat than Troy is because he has that soft spoken southern drawl and those big muscles on his body and has shown the group that he can lead the boot. Kim and Chalsea are keeping that as a note and they also don't know about Troy and the idle.

If they don't stick with the plan and boot a numanano (Tarzan) then they will most likely target Mike sense he is a physical threat and not in the core 4.

Does that explanation make you feel any better about my thinking? Not that I need your approval to post in this forum anyway.

She wasn't being rude or mean - you've dropped some rather cocky (your words) posts without any back-up of where the info came from or why you think that way, so it comes across as condescending as well. I don't think you mean that, but your posting style is rubbing a number of people the wrong way.

Also FloPo has more than earned the respect around here for her years of spoiling contributions on this site, so when you've posted twice (as far as I know) in direct response to something she said with a cryptic message of your own, she has a right to wonder what's behind your postings. For example, you posted "...like someone's whispering to you" on the spec about who was going last episode, she asked what that meant and you never responded to it.

Bottom line, if you don't want others to be rude or mean (your words) to you, don't post in a way that makes it sound like you know something but have something hidden behind it or potentially accuse someone of something in a hit-and-run posting.

>your posting style is rubbing
>a number of people the
>wrong way.

Rub people the wrong way? That's being rater polite. I felt like I was reading Polo over on Sucks, and this guy annoys me nearly as much!

>Bottom line, if you don't want
>others to be rude or
>mean (your words) to you,
>don't post in a way
>that makes it sound like
>you know something but have
>something hidden behind it or
>potentially accuse someone of something
>in a hit-and-run posting.

If you have a real spoiler, say so, other wise just say that's what you think and maybe why you think that and stop being so pushy and full of yourself. That behavior is OK (and encouraged ) over at Sucks but it is not appreciated here.

Just my 2 cents

Calling someone a jerk is rude and mean no matter if she disagrees with my opinion.

>Calling someone a jerk is rude
>and mean no matter if
>she disagrees with my opinion.
>
>
Her problem and mine is you never said it was an OPINION, you stated it as FACT and treated everyone that said anything different was stupid to disagree with you. And that is RUDE!!!

LAST EDITED ON 03-31-12 AT 10:42 PM (EST)

Much better. As the Apollo astronauts might say, looks like we've had our glitch for this mission.

Honestly, tension always builds up on the forum sometime every season and vents out somehow. The thing is those posts weren't contributing to the conversation, the discussion, but had an opposite air of being end of the conversation, so I can understand why some people may have felt annoyed or whatever.

So, shake it off, remember to contribute, let's have fun.

Kind of hard to have fun when someone calls you a jerk as FlowerPower did. I don't care how long she has been posting, that was uncalled for. And I have posted my reasoning in a few different places, didn't feel the need to keep reposting that. People may not agree with what I say but that doesn't give them the right to call me a jerk.

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck...

You may disagree, but there's three people calling you out on certain actions. One might be an accident, two might be a coincidence, but three...

Semantics, she was addressing your actions (posting without really contributing to the discussion, as I see it) rather than your person. I can understand how you feel but shake it off, put it in perspective, zen on contribution.

Anyway, WOO-HOO!, if this is the worst it gets this season, YAY! We've had much worse in the past, we don't need the bad vibes.

Really, as for the show, this has been the best season in ages! Wouldn't you say so?

>Really, as for the show, this
>has been the best season
>in ages! Wouldn't you
>say so?

Stamp!!

Having no spoilers and lots of vague (and some not so vague) clues in promos has been great fun. I've spent many enjoyable hours pouring over clips and others speculation trying to work them out. I didn't really post much at all in past seasons, mostly because I was already spoiled and had nothing new to ad. This season with no spoilers I have felt I could contribute to the discussion and be in on the debate of ideas.

Hey, Arnold
Join in the discussion, you've had some very good insights and ideas. Just don't try to come across like you have the answers and no one else's opinion matters. I've gotten some right and more wrong but it's been lots of fun none the less.

Look Arnold, I am sorry if I offended you by telling you to quit "acting like a jerk". But, when you post in such a nasty way, that is what you "seem" to be.

Please, if you have an opinion, by all means state it, but state it as such and give your rationale. You can disagree with people but give them a reason why you disagree.....just don't force your opinion on others....saying "Chelsea is safe get over it", is what I call rude and acting like a "jerk". I don't mean to offend you, I just want to point out that your posts are offensive.

Regarding your post telling me after my spec and rationale that it was like someone whispered to me was offensive to me. I formulated it all on my own. If you read Whispers than state that you do but leave me out of it.

I accept your apology. I didn't mean to offend you either I will do better next time.

Thanks Arnold. I look forward to your point of view....

I think the promos could be straightforward: The women will choose to keep Troyzan and will betray Jay...or Michael. I'm not sure Michael would be called a power player but maybe he would in SEG's distorted vision of things.

Or we're all wrong and the guys wake up and boot one of Kim, Chelsea or Sabrina who can't be discounted as a power player.

To me, right now, Michael makes the most sense with Alicia as a back-up option. I don't think the showdown between Kim and Troyzan will happen just yet. Maybe that's wishful thinking as I'd like to see both top contenders remain longer.

michel, you make a good point. SEG does like to put a spin on things. When Kim is talking privately with Sabrina and Kat and she is saying something like if we make this move things are never going to be the same....she could be saying if we go after Michael and take him out, then we have drawn the line in the sand....it will be revealed that they are back solid with the old Salani as they are getting rid of a member of nuSalani.

Michael could be a target....perhaps SEG has him as a "major player" because he is a member of the dominant alliance....just something to add to the mix, so to speak!

When I first saw the clip of Kim talking to Kat and Sabrina I thought maybe she was trying to talk them out of targeting one of the guys in their alliance. But I had second thoughts when I seen the clip where Kim says it is time for the girls to take control of the game.

The thing is even if they take out say Greg or Leif they will still have control of the game. If they out Troy or Jay I will be vary disappointed with them. They could easily target one of the other guys and still have control of the game.

LAST EDITED ON 03-31-12 AT 10:27 PM (EST)

My early prediction of a Sabrina boot has lost a lot of ground with the promos. She still fits the teasers well, but so do quite a few of the others. I would love to be right and have the guys show some mental power but I feel that is not in the cards. I'm starting to lean towards a Jay boot, but if that happens I fear that will set the season up to get predicable and rather boring in the later episodes.

Repeat footage is only shown in thumbnail format, but we do finally get some challenge footage, likely RC.

Two teams, green and yellow take turns sliding down large water slide into lake.
Green team: Alicia
Yellow team: Christina, Kim, Sabrina.

VO: Wednesday, on Survivor, someone is about to get played.

Given the few team players we see in the PIP promo, it's possible that the following scenes take place at camp during the reward. The person who would be talked about would probably be Michael.

Kat would then catch up Sabrina and Kim after they return, at which point they have decide which way to go, Micheal, or someone else.

LAST EDITED ON 04-01-12 AT 08:07 AM (EST)

Great spec, VG! Thanks so much for the PIP. Yes, I think that Kat could be filling in Kim and Sabrina at that point....Note that we see Sabrina has a beer bottle in her hand....perhaps returning from the reward...

Kat most likely tells Sabrina and Kim, we need to take out Michael ASAP, he's the biggest threat....then we hear Kim note...

So, we have to decide if we're going to, like, make our move. Because this is never going to be the same.
"This is never going to be the same, if we do this."

They are noting that it will no longer be nuSalani vs. nuManono, but it will appear as though all of the girls are sticking together and voting out the men...

If, however, this is Kat filling in Sabrina and Kim after their reward, which I agree it sure looks like, than there is still time for an IC and Michael could still win it.....so, their plan may be foiled.

Food for thought....who will the girls minus Kim/Chelsea want to target if NOT Michael? That's the million dollar question...

Here are the suspicious PIP pics sandwiched in the middle...

Chelsea, Alicia, Christina, Michael, Troy, and Jay are ALL there....(darn!)

Another possible scenario at this point....if the girls are adamant about taking out a physical threat, and Michael wins the IC, then the girls would want to target one of Troy or Jay....but, Kim would most likely talk them out of it, or not? If Kim and Chelsea vote separately from all of the girls, and all of the boys vote together, it will be a girl to go home.

But, if Kim has as much control as we think she does, she will indeed control the vote. So, we have to think of what is best for Kim to determine who they will vote for. If Michael doesn't win the IC, I think he's toast.

I'm kind of a beginner in the "reading the vidcaps for clues" game and have a couple of beginner questions.

1) what in the world does PIP stand for? I've been racking my brain and haven't come up with anything that remotely makes sense.

2) I haven't seen Kim mentioned as a possible target in this or the Ep Title thread - what are y'all seeing in the vidcaps that is eliminating her as a target?

I keep trying to figure out who exactly these previews are aimed at. What I mean is, are they aimed at me (a person who reads a few different message boards and actively tries to figure them out), or are they aimed at the more casual viewer? I think if I knew who they were aimed at then I'd have a better idea of who fit the bill of a "shocking blindside". To me, "shocking" would be Kim or Troy, then probably Chelsea, Jay, Sabrina, and Michael in that order. To the casual viewer, "shocking" would probably mean anyone on NuSalani. And if it's shocking to the players themselves, then it would probably be anyone other than Greg or maybe Leif.

Any thoughts?

LAST EDITED ON 04-01-12 AT 02:00 PM (EST)

Hi OllieKat... (I have a cat named Oliver, we often shorten his name to "Ollie" )

PIP = Picture in Picture, where there's a smaller picture playing something in a corner of the TV while a different channel is on.

About Kim... I think the thinking might be that based on the editing, she seems destined to go far, really far, in the game so that might be why people are not including her as a shocking blindside candidate - I've seen a couple of people throw her name, but really, at this point in the game all bets are off and nobody can truly be considered 100% safe. Even so, we've had absolutely no hints that Kim could be a boot coming up and we've been shown that she has her pulse on almost all parts of the game, while with almost everyone else, we've been shown a reason or two why they could be considered a boot.

I believe that CBS aims their vidcaps at the average viewer, many of whom have no idea how to pick up hidden messages that might be present in a vidcap - for example, my wife is an 'average viewer' and she doesn't pick up on who's sitting with whom, whether there's an immunity idol in the background, whether a certain scene might be before or after IC based on buffs and clothes, etc. So you may very well be correct that just about anyone on NuSalani could be considered a "shocking blindside."

ETA:
What FloPo said.
What BF said.
Great minds think alike.

Probably best the the mrs misses the subtleties.

Because aside from the occasional buff-o-matic, it looks like there might just be an idol gremlin let loose in the editing bay.

Notice him in this shot of Sabrina and Tarzan? Almost smirking from from between them.
It was shown during the promos leading into Ep7.

But then...
When the real episode seven airs...

Notice anything missing?

Boy these editing guys are krazxy!

Wow! That's amazing....looks like they got rid of it the photoshop way? Clearly, it had to have been there. That is a great find, Tribe! Fitting that your eagle eye didn't miss that!

>Probably best the the mrs misses
>the subtleties.
>
>Because aside from the occasional buff-o-matic,
>it looks like there might
>just be an idol gremlin
>let loose in the editing
>bay.
>
>
>Notice him in this shot of
>Sabrina and Tarzan? Almost smirking
>from from between them.
>It was shown during the promos
>leading into Ep7.
>
>
>But then...
>When the real episode seven airs...
>
>
>
>
>Notice anything missing?
>
>
>Boy these editing guys are krazxy!
>
What I can't understand is why they chopped it out of the video that aired in the real episode. If you look the bottom of the idol is still there under Sabrina's right hand and the greenery between them is duplicated just slightly out of focus from directly behind her shoulder blades. The leaves and shadows match perfectly. I wish I had a decent photo editor to high lite the area.

I just couldn't let this go, so I had to check the CBS site for the full episode.
I believe the reason they edited out the idol was that they wanted us to think that this interaction with Chelsea was AFTER IC. It was before the IC and the idol was there but they needed to make it look like Tarzan was still on the radar at TC for the drama leading up to tribal. The wood chopping sequence was part of that video footage but happened at a different time too. Sab's hair is up in a braid while she is talking to Greg about his soiled drawers but while he's chopping the log her hair is down and frizzed out all over. It's made to look like this all happened in just a few minutes but it was pieced together form several different events. Now I wonder how many times they have done this that we missed?

"Now I wonder how many times they have done this that we missed?"

They do it quite often. Take the Samoan episode where Russell found his first HII. The episode showed that he found it before the reward challenge but, looking at it carefully, we saw Ben wearing the war paint they had put on for that challenge. Russell found the idol after Yasmin had been in camp and he told us he saw her looking at trees so the "I found an idol without a clue" was a lie.

Or, if you have time, go look for Exile island episode 4: There are at least three scenes taken out of sequence and/or spliced together to create the story.

LAST EDITED ON 04-01-12 AT 12:21 PM (EST)

first of all, I'm glad that you are chiming in. Sometimes it is the casual viewer that can point something out to all of us that scour the vidcaps each and every week. But, I include you in the mix if you do indeed read message boards and try to figure it out...

!. PIP= Picture in Picture promo....it is usually shown on Saturday night or Sunday on CBS when they are featuring some kind of sports....such as during NFL football, or say last night during the Final Four basketball, etc. It is usually a little hazy in quality, as they show it on the bottom of the screen right during the sports show, while the announcer says a little blurb about it....don't miss Survivor this week! So, usually there isn't a transcript with it.

It comes out after the preview promo, which is "Next time on Survivor", that we get at the end of each weeks episode. Then there is the "Promo", which usually comes out sometime the day or two after the show aired, and is a longer commercial type format with a voiceover and transcript.

Sure hope that helps.

Then, while I am no expert on CBS and their hype, my opinion is that the promos are totally aimed at Mr. and Mrs. John Q. Public and family....they are aimed at the general population to try and hook us into watching....

2. Regarding your second question....I think you raise an excellent point. A MOST shocking blindside would be either Kim or Troy, because we know that they both have a HII. But, when the promos note that one major player will be played, they proceed to show

VO: It's the biggest Survivor shocker yet.
Kim: "We're about to make our move." See Kim talk to Sabrina and Kat
VO: A major player is about to get played. See Alicia, Christina, Chelsea, Troy, Jay, and Michael.....NO sign of Kim, and she is the one stating...
Kim: (confessional) "We can start sending these guys home."
Jay: (confessional) "I think it's just a safe vote to knock out a girl."
Kim: "This is never going to be the same, if we do this."

Kim in the promo is seen saying they are going to make their move, it will never be the same, time for the girls to take over this game, we can start sending these guys home, it's never going to be the same, if we do this....additionally she is not seen after "a major player is about to get played"....

That leads most of the folks at Blows to not consider Kim as the major player about to get played.....but, nevertheless, as you point out:

1. She is a major player
2. It would really be a shocking blindside!

Thanks for your thoughts!
ETA: What Pepe said!

LAST EDITED ON 04-01-12 AT 12:44 PM (EST)

First off thanks VG for the PiP caps and analysis/spec and FloPo for additionally breaking things down into logical thinking.

> Olliekat
'PiP' mean 'Picture in Picture'...as in a tv promo during a basketball on TV where they only show the promo is a small window/picture almost always in a lower corner of the screen. There usually is no audio from the PiP promo only the annoucer of the basketball/football/golf/whatever? talking over it usually reading a script giving a very general idea of what the previewed episode is about...maybe some teasers if we're lucky. But never any dialogue I don't think. Anyway b/c the PiP window is so small when you enlarge it(even in HD presentation)the result is usually much less clear in the details than a full screen sized promo, so it's harder to spoil. A SEG/CBS/MD favorite ploy.

W/re to whom the promos are aimed at. I'd say that anything on TV is 'aimed' at the general/average TV audience...the non-fanatic Survivor fan(ie casual viewer). Anything shown on the web/internet is 'aimed' at the more rabid Survivor fans who obsess over all the details.

Hope this is helpful in sinking your teeth into 'vidcap'(shown on TV=video capture) and/or 'screencap'(shown on the web=monitor screen capture analysis.

W/re to analysis about Kim...
It more of what folks *are* seeing about Kim...in the confessionals, Kim's interactions w/other players, Kim's comments, editing of her in positve light. The fact that she now has a HII is also a big factor in her safety...moreso of her power or potential power to influence the game's directions and boot targets than pure safety, as we have seen several players booted with the HII in the pockets in seasons gone by. But the HII *is* a factor. Look how Colton used it to gain control and direct the boots and yet never played it. Some of it is just fear of the bounce being 'me'. Anyway that's seems to be the general feeling about where Kim is at right now...the catbird seat. Not infallible but in control at the moment.

Edit to add...
- What pepe said
- What FloPo said
obviously we're covering the same ground here in our answers...lol

Ollie, I've been seeing Kim as the possible winner since early on but that isn't the reason I haven't brought her up as a possible boot. Instead, it's because I'm really worried she could be the one voted out! When the Voice Over says a player is about to be played and we first see Kim taking a free fall, it worries me. It doesn't make sense as far as what we know is going on but we really don't know much about what is really going on.

SeeBS really aims their promos to the average viewers. We had proof of that when, during Guatemala, the promo included a shot of the upcoming F4 tribal Council. Rafe was wearing the Immunity necklace! It was too quick on screen for the average person to see but not for us.

With that in mind, Michael would be a blindside as far as the audience goes because he is part of NewSalani and they'd expect Tarzan. Still Michael wouldn't be that shocking which is what worries me. Then again, SeeBS has often over-hyped results that were less than shocking.

I haven't seen Kim mentioned as a possible target in this or the Ep Title thread - what are y'all seeing in the vidcaps that is eliminating her as a target?

Another thing that I wanted to mention but didn't is that Kim is seen in a future challenge as noted here. This is a future challenge that we have not seen yet. It's for an individual winner, as we see that she is playing on the red/orange color. This could be a multiple tasks challenge, as we see her doing a slip n slide, then doing a ring toss.

So far for episode 7 we have a water slide challenge....it is not the same as the future challenge I've noted above. It is still possible that the slip n slide/ring toss challenge could be for individual immunity in ep 7, but we just don't have any vidcaps of that yet....

Pepe, FloPo, BFreddy, and Michel: thank you so much for the answers, it definitely helps this newbie I can't believe I couldn't figure out Picture in Picture for myself!

I think part of why I brought up Kim was because I was looking for some reassurance that she wasn't likely to be booted. This is one of those very rare seasons that someone I want to win is actually playing well and is edited as a potential winner

One worry I have about her is that she may not be harnessing the power of the idol as much as she could since (as far as we know) only Chelsea knows about it. Of course, the same could be said about Troy.

It seems like the "power player" this week might very well turn out to be Christina. To boot a woman, the guys would have to bring in a woman and I would think Christina would be the one they'd try to bring in unless Greg insists Alicia is the one to talk to. And then if the women want to blindside a NuSalani without Jay and Troy they need to bring in another NuManano (I'm counting Alicia as a women's vote they don't have to work for). So yeah, Christina could gain some power this week.

Not that that spec does much in the way of figuring out the vote but I'm trying not to be deadweight around here

FloPo: I had seen the stuff about Kim doing a future challenge. Trust me, last week I was smiling when I realized that it hadn't shown up yet since I'm a Kim fan! I'm hoping we get a glimpse of this week's other challenge and that it's not slip 'n slide 'n toss.

Pepe: When I was trying to come up with a screen name here I had my cat "helping" me. Yep, you got it, his name is Oliver and one of his many nicknames is Ollie He was being somewhat good that day otherwise my screen name would have been Dam*ItOliver!

"One worry I have about her is that she may not be harnessing the power of the idol as much as she could since (as far as we know) only Chelsea knows about it."

People have many different ideas on how to play the idol and circumstances vary but keeping the idol a secret isn't a bad idea.

Yul had an all powerful idol (he could wait until the votes were read to use it) and he was wise to use it to flip Jonathan but it could have backfired if Jonathan had gotten everyone to vote against Sundra or Becky.

James, Ozzy and many others were voted out because others knew they had an idol. Marty was so cornered when Sash and Brenda found out he had the idol that he had to give it to Sash.

Rob kept it secret and it worked very well for him while Coach showed it and it worked out fine. It helped that both had a bunch of loyal zombies though.

I'd say the best course of action would be to keep it secret. If you are in the dominating alliance, you don't need it. If you are on the block, it's better to surprise everyone with it, preventing a split vote. If the situation is volatile then you could reveal it to flip someone.

Yeah, it's tricky. Part of the problem with keeping it a secret is that you might never find out that you're on the block if you 'thought' you had some friends on the tribe, but find out that you don't...

LAST EDITED ON 04-01-12 AT 09:05 PM (EST)

I'd agree if it wasn't for one thing: There are a lot less blindsides than what we are lead to believe. So often, the player knows he is going home if only because no one wants to talk to him or they can't look him in the face.

I'd reveal it if I trusted someone completely but I doubt that I'd find someone like that. I'd also reveal if I thought it would help me create a new alliance but it would be a last resort type of thing.

Ii won't repeat what PePe, FloPo and BF have already posted, but I will add that prior to the challenge footage showing up in the PIP promo, you did have a good case for Kim not being considered more as a boot possibility.

A couple of points which don't translate well in vidcaps.

After going down the giant slide, players land in a sand pit, not a lake, as I originally thought. I pity the last players to go down, as they will land in a soggy mess of sand and water.

The other point is that in the Full (web) Promo, the final sequence shows Kim speaking with Kat and Sabrina, then the footage freezes on a slightly more close-up of Kim in more saturated colors.

Is there some where I can watch this PIP video with sound. I have searched and can only find it at survivor Phoenix web site in the form of vidcaps. I know there has to be video somewhere. I just want to see if the VO: Wednesday, on Survivor, someone is about to get played is fallowed by a pic of Kim. If so I have to consider Kim a potential boot until I see the IC is the slip and slide.

Perhaps Christina is even proactive, after the girls try to have her vote with them against a guy, and goes to the guys with the name of the girls' vote. Unfortunately, based on all of your spec, I'm thinking Troy is going, and I don't want to see that. I would love for the guys to turn it around. And like OFG, in last week's episode thread, I'm not liking Kim after last week's episode. I told someone at work, I'd have to watch it again to really get a handle on what it was, but i felt like she was an overlord, lying on the canoe, dictating.

rachel,
maybe Kim is acquiring Brenda syndrome -- I am the smartest in the land and I hold the power ...
As we saw in Nicaragua, all it took was for Holly to open their eyes to the fact they didn't have to let Brenda (and Sash) run the game any more. That could happen to Kim, although I don't think it happens now.

I don't think they will do two water slide challenges in one episode, as they usually aim for some variety, which would mean Kim survives.

Re Ollie's question:
While I have always said that promos are for the general viewers and the primary purpose is to increase ratings, they do from time to time slip in some Easter eggs for the fans who capture the images.

However, for the press announcement teasers, I think those descriptions apply within the game.

That is -- "shocking blindside" means that at least one players and probably others will find the vote quite unexpected.

I think fans on the boards overthink the "shocking" and think it means WE will be shocked, and that leads to looking for very unlikely boots. It could be an unlikely boot, but it doesn't have to be, so let's not eliminate Michael simply because we think he is a predictable boot.

The obvious boots, if no one makes a jump to a bigger fish, would be Leif or Tarzan, because they are the ones with no allies left. For the nuSalani men, Christina and Alicia will feel like fair game. So if nuSalani is going to try to stick together as they said they would, the jostle for power would be for Jay-Troy-Michael to try to get Kim-Sab-Chelsea-Kat to ditch Alicia or Christina instead of going after Leif.

But the women want to keep their numerical superiority, and they want to get rid of a bigger threat than Leif -- I personally do not see why it would be Troyzan. Yes he won a balance the balls immunity, but Jay and Michael are the two big threats. Troy's idol is a secret.

I really don't see any signs that the men are pulling it together to get out a powerful woman. We have one confessional from Jay saying he would like a woman to go, but the easiest thing for the men to do, being down in numbers, is to push for one of the women on the fringe, the nuManono women.

I think it will be Jay or Michael. The question is whether one of the wins IC and whether Kim abandons her co-ed alliance because she can't protect Jay without arousing suspicion.

Kim will be at risk if Sab, Kat, Alicia, Christina figure out that she made a F4 pact with Jay and Troyzan. That could easily be Kim's demise. She's not Rob Mariano.

I agree, OFG, that Michael could be shocked if he got voted out. He thinks he's in with the nuSalani tribe. I think that the girls would go after Michael first as the biggest challenge threat. Now if he wins immunity, things get trickier. I would think that Kim and Chelsea would want to keep their alliance with Troy and Jay together but as you said, it would arise suspicion if they tried to protect Jay.

P.S. If Kim does go down at some point, is she getting the fan favorite edit?!

Question. After Jonas' attempt to draw attention to Michael at TC as a threat, would it be really 'shocking' to Michael if he gets booted, now that he's been publicly outed as a threat?

would it be really 'shocking' to Michael if he gets booted, now that he's been publicly outed as a threat?

I could see that Michael could go. But, he's in nuSalani and while it looks like nuSalani is the dominant tribe that could pick off nuManono. What would be "shocking" is if nuSalani picks off one of their own before picking off all of nuManono. Michael, as the big powerhouse who is not in the core 4 or female, fits the bill perfectly. But, as Pepe points out, he was outed last week by Jonas at TC to be the most physically capable person out there....and, it was noted by his performance at the RC. He received 2 votes by others for being the most likely to go on an IC run. Therefore, I don't think him being a target is shocking, nor would I consider it a blindside for him....he's got to have his radar up after TC.

We KNOW that the girls are planning on targeting him, as we hear Kat note that he's got to go ASAP in their discussion when half the tribe is away on their reward, as VG noted. Kat brings up Michael. Then, most likely, when Kim and Sabrina return from their reward, Kat fills them in on them wanting to vote out Michael. Then Kim tells them that if we do this it will never be the same....

So, clearly it looks like Michael will be the target of the girls. But, will something happen that forces them to choose another? Will Michael win the IC? If he does, who will they then choose?

Long story short....Michael for me would not be a blindside, nor do I think he would be surprised if they go after him as well...

I agree that Michael should not be a blindside, and if it is Michael, the promo will have been shoddy.

My theory I put on MESS is that a promo writer, who does see an advance copy of the episode, could easily come up with the blindside and eradication of security due to Jeff's words at tribal.

As in, if Jeff notes after the vote that the Tikiana tribe has just pulled off its first blindside, and that tells him that no one should feel secure ...

We have heard Jeff say this type of thing on multiple occasions.

We might also keep in mind that Jeff doesn't watch camp footage, so he does not know that Jay and Troyzan made a pact with Kim and Chelsea. He won't know differently until and unless someone outs this alliance at TC. For all Jeff knows, the three nuSalani man are somewhat equal in status. He doesn't know if they are with Leif and Tarzan or not either. He IS going to see that the men are in danger of being annihilated if things continue as they have.

Jeff doesn't like to see pagongings, so I expect he will be nudging the men to wake up and trying to shake up the nuManono players as well.

I would love to see Michael pull of a big move here.

I too think it is possible that Michael will win immunity and the women will have to scramble, and that some of the women will want to take out Jay, and that Jay gets played.

The one thing I see that could mess that up, assuming that Kim agrees to it, is that Chelsea and Jay are close, and from the same geographic region. We know Chelsea was recruited by Jaime of Survivor China, who is from SC, and she might have found Jay too, although I don't know that.

The question I have is, can Chelsea be trusted to let Jay get blindsided?
Or could Chelsea get played by Kim and be left out of the loop?

>maybe Kim is acquiring Brenda syndrome
>-- I am the smartest
>in the land and I
>hold the power ...
>As we saw in Nicaragua, all
>it took was for Holly
>to open their eyes to
>the fact they didn't have
>to let Brenda (and Sash)
>run the game any more.
> That could happen to
>Kim, although I don't think
>it happens now.

OFG, there is a big difference between Brenda and Kim: Brenda had confessionals saying she was smart and in control of the game. Kim merely talks about having options.

As for Brenda's ouster, editing mislead us. Holly had little to do with it. Brenda told Nay that they should eliminate Sash but Na'Onka was too close to Sash. That's what got Brenda voted out. Would Chelsea or any of the women go to Jay or Michael if Kim puts the target on one of them? I really doubt it.

Actually I would not be surprised to see Christina go to them and flipping. She would have a better chance going with the guys than the girls. If she flipped to the guys and they targeted say Kim. She would be in control.

But the guys are not unified like the 4 NuSalani girls and the Alicia are. If Jay and Troy are told of a possible plan to vote off one of them by Christina they don't really have a reason to believe her since she's been shown to scramble. Leif, as we know from Jonas' interview is out of the loop for everything.

Tarzan has publicly said he does not like Christina and nobody likes Tarzan.

I am thinking it's either Troy or if it's a woman it's Alicia. The Core 4 guys would want to eliminate a girl to even the numbers again. This is when Kim prevents it by eliminating another guy, IMO.

I'd buy that only if Jonas was still there. Christina has no connection to Mike, Jay and Troy while Tarzan wanted to vote her out and Leif is a nobody. Christina would be so happy just to have 3 more days, to see the women include her, that she'd tag along.

I agree she dose not have a connection to them. I am not sure she even has her head in the game enough to see she would have a better chance with the guys. But I believe if Troy was suspicious at all and she came to him with the info that he was being targeted he could get the guys to vote for one of the girls and then play the idol. I know the guys are fractured but I do not think it would be hard to reunite them if it was done by someone like Troy.

michel,
just because I make a snarky remark about a past situation doesn't mean I think that it's a perfect analogy. Also I take shortcuts with the story because I don't want to go into some big summary of exactly what happened and how it compares.

You love to debate the analogies with past seasons, and I really don't want to nor have time to do that. I will certainly concede you have better recall.

I just wish I could make a post mentioning a past season without getting a detailed counter argument from you. The past doesn't matter to me this week.

All that I meant is that Kim is showing signs of "running the show" and that whenever a person is "running the show" it can be flipped by the majority waking up to it and doing something about it.

However, in some seasons people let it happen and don't fight it as long as they see a way to be part of it. I don't know how this season will go.

However, Mike is a player who hoped to make big moves, and he is in danger, so he might try something.

You know, that could be a hint that it's Michael that goes -- "the player gets played", hmmm?

Well, per casual viewers, Big Mike has an on-again off-again edit. He made a bold move at the start of the game stealing equipment from the women, then basically went into the background until episode 4 when he was edited as instrumental in the events leading to the men going to TC rather than the women. In episode 5 he was shown as a major challenge contributor, in fact he has been consistantly edited well as a challenge factor. Last episode he was instrumental in the rift between Jonas and Tarzan, and Jonas tried to throw him under the bus at TC. But the backlash was that only Leif voted with Jonas, so he doesn't appear to be under any threat.

But I couldn't know it was a shortcut or that you knew it wasn't a perfect analogy. I wasn't debating, just showing why I thought Nicaragua didn't apply to this season.

I went back through this thread to review what all we had in regards to written/spoken words (visual cues often escape me so I didn't review the caps) and something caught my eye that I don't think we've discussed.

In the preview Kim has the following confessional:

Kim: (confessional) "I'm not exactly sure how this is about to go down."

One thing that says to me is that Kim isn't in complete and total control because she' expressing doubt about how the vote is going down. If she had a Rob-type control she'd know exactly what's happening.

The other possible explanation for the confessional is that she's not sure how she's going to make what she wants to have happen, happen. What I mean is that, say she wants Troy out, she may be expressing doubt about how she can get the votes to make that happen.

In any case I think it for sure says that she has doubt that her chosen target will for sure go home. Could that be the mis-direction doubt the viewers get so that when Kim's target does go home we're "shocked"? If so, who do we think Kim wants to target?

Thanks to the work of everyone here I'm leaning heavily towards Jay or Troy. Kim's doubt about it happening may be her wondering if she can really get her buddy Chelsea to vote her buddy Jay out. Something to think about?

OllieKat your post made me think of another possibility. If the girls are targeting Troy or Jay, Chelsea may not agree with the boot choices as she often dose. She may even voice her opinion in a more assertive manner. This could cause Kim to be not sure how it was going to go down. If Chelsea disagrees enough she could turn on the girls and let Troy and Jay in on the plan to target them. I have not seen any sign Chelsea is an aggressive enough player to do this but she has been shown as voicing her disapproval in the boot choice. She could get tired of being ignored.

The thing with Chelsea though is that she has been the most vocal about women power.

Episode 1: “We are not letting those muscles discourage us at all. The girls, if we just keep our head in the game and try to stay together and just take the boys down, then we will just be one huge ball of badasses.”
After finding out they'd live on one beach: “We were kinda pissed.”
After the IC: "Those guys don’t give a crap about any of us girls and they showed it today. They don’t care. This is a no mercy game.”

After episode 3 IC: "What is funny is that the boys thought they had it in the bag because they were so far ahead so now they are probably running around like chicken with their heads cut off, not knowing what to do.”

At the start of episode 4: : “Isn’t that funny?! I think it’s hilarious that, at the beginning, we were struggling but now the boys come by wanting to borrow everything that we’ve won at challenges. It’s just crazy how the roles have reversed in just nine days.”

After the Merge: : “It makes me nervous that an idol is still out there. My biggest concern is for someone on the Manono tribe finds the idol going into the next vote and messing up our numbers because we can’t have a Salani go home.”
And: “It’s guys versus girls but, the way I see it, we keep it Salani versus Manono. We should take out Manono’s strongest people first. I think Jonas is their strongest player right now which I hate because he’s a great cook, great positive attitude, fun to be around but I’m thinking Jonas will be the next to go.”

It was Kim that was shown making the alliance and, while we saw Chelsea hunting crabs with Mike and discussing the boot with Jay, the words we heard from Chelsea were all about Men vs Women. It would be a break of character for her to go with the guys and editing usually doesn't have those breaks come out of nowhere.

All that to say: I don't think she'd break up the women's alliance for Jay.

Micheal That's pretty cool you know all her quotes. You have a better memory than me for sure. When I read that quote post merge is sounds to me that she was all about NuSalani versus Numanono. She even states their strongest player was Jonas. If she was implying that Jonas was somehow a stronger player than Jay, Troy and Micheal I would be surprised. I do see what you are saying about the girl power statements she had. I had not thought about that. I just guess it depends on how attached she has become to her new core 4 alliance. I do remember her saying early in the game that if they had the chance to form an alliance over again it would be different. I do not think she likes Kat or Alicia.

Neither she or Kim have ever referred to Jay and Troy as their core 4. Kim told Chelsea that they needed to get their hooks in as many people as they could so, from what we have been told, Jay and Troy are the outer layer of their alliance.

Chelsea mentions Jonas first which could indicate she is talking about NuSalani but she does start by talking about men and women again.

michel...I echo the sentiment, I love when you bring the editing in to help in difficult episodes. Please don't be a stranger!

To me this is exactly why Leif, Tarzan are most exposed. Chelsea (and Kim) can boot one of them while not playing their card as to whether they are supporting the women or the nuSalani alliance.

Booting Michael would be next, as they could still be supporting the woman and the NuSalani Core alliance.

IMO, from this list only a Michael boot would qualify as a "major player". (though Tarzan has had a lot to say, I would not call him a player)

LAST EDITED ON 04-03-12 AT 00:20 AM (EST)

VO: A major player is about to get played.

Taking this from who is what angle:

Manono1: Greg (Tarzan), Jay, Leif, Michael, Troy (Troyzan) - 5
Salani1: Alicia, Chelsea, Christina, Kat, Kim, Sabrina - 6
InstantAlliance: Alicia, Chelsea, Kat, Kim, Sabrina - 5
Muscle: Jay, Michael - 2
Misfits - Greg (Tarzan), Leif, Troy (Troyzan) - 3
Airheads - Alicia, Kat - 2
Manono2 - Alicia, Christina, Greg (Tarzan), Leif - 4
Salani2 - Chelsea, Jay, Kat, Kim, Michael, Sabrina, Troy (Troyzan) - 7
CrossAlliance - Chelsea, Jay, Kim, Troy (Troyzan) - 4
HII Buddies - Chelsea, Kim - 2
HII Buddies - Troy (Troyzan) - 1
Subsets:
Jay, Michael, Troy (Troyzan)
Kat, Kim, Sabrina
Alicia, Greg (Tarzan)

Right now I'm thinking the hype machine is just taking the position that all of the Salani2 members are major players, plus probably InstantAlliance member Alicia.

Thanks for typing all of that out Dabo!

I have a feeling you're probably right in who fits the "major player" label. I also have a feeling that I'm not going to be able to pick one likely suspect before the show The best I've been able to do is narrow it down to Michael, Jay or Troy. I have a gut feeling it's a guy going so at this point I really don't even have a guess as to which woman could be going.

Ok they have the Reward challenge up at the express site. I have been dieing to see the IC but it looks like they may be keeping it a secret.

http://www.cbspressexpress.com/cbs-entertainment/shows/survivor-one-world/video

LAST EDITED ON 04-03-12 AT 01:29 PM (EST)

Spa reward, get to bring back to camp a cooler of 7Up.

So, teams of 5, one of them has to sit out. Probably random draw for teams and sit-out. Sit-out may have option of backing a team and sharing reward if they win. More politics possible? Trade place options?

Ok finally got something on the IC...
It's called 'Odd Shaped Bottoms'

Camp scene...

RC-'7-UP'

Comment:
So it looks like Michael and Leif are the adds for the Yellow team....leaving Greg as the non-participant...who still goes on Reward?(does he pre-pick a winning tribe?)

Thanks BF for posting those. We can now rule out Kim as a boot candidate as that is not the slip n slid challenge. This challenge dose not look like it would be easy for a bigger person. It looks like they have to untangle or unwrap the rope from all those rungs as they cross that bridge. I am not sure if that it the whole challenge we are seeing.

LAST EDITED ON 04-03-12 AT 08:51 PM (EST)

Adding to note that there are a few additional Press Pics which I'm unable to get large pics of at the moment(perhaps someone else can and post them)....

Edit to add an additional pic

If you look closely you can see 3 bags of what I guess to be puzzle pieces tied to the rungs. Troy has his first one in his hands in the pic

Also Kim is on black so this can't be slip-n-slide after because in that she is red

I am wandering if any one can tell the time date stamps on these pics and tell if any are post IC.

LAST EDITED ON 04-03-12 AT 10:32 PM (EST)

RC pics are 8.21.11 afternoon
IC pics are 8.22.11 1:47 - 2:13

All other pics are post IC. I'll try to go back and edit in the camp pic timestamps and maybe order them.

Edit to timestamp and order the camp pics.

8.22.11 3:46

8.22.11 3:53

8.22.11 4:10

8.22.11 4:15

8.22.11 4:31

Awesome BF much appreciated. I see everyone back at camp after the IC except Tarzan. He could be standing next to Troyzan and we can not see him.

The thing that strikes me about the post IC pics is that Kim is the only one shown looking happy. Perhaps that points to her winning immunity?

Actually OllieKat I think that pic was taken about the same time this pic was taken.

Notice Kat looking astonished and Chelsea smirking. I think someone perhaps Troyzan says something funny at about that time. I have been looking hard for the Immunity necklace on someones neck but I can not find it. So it is hard to tell who won.

This picture is time stamped after the IC...

Note Troy's arm band and his buff around his head, it's the same as he is in this confessional...

So, I think that the confessional is AFTER the IC, and possibly Troy could have this as he's telling us his thought on the win post IC....he could have won it. Then he possibly adds, "I want to stick with this group to the end"....so, he will vote as the core four decide...and Jay tells us it's the safe vote to vote out a girl. They most likely agree to vote out either Alicia/Christina. Yet, the girls, we know are voting out Michael or Jay. If Troy wins the IC, as speculated here, then Michael is vulnerable, and will be toast. Surprise boot for the nuManono tribe that thought they could be picked off. But, with this revelation, now the men will realize that they are in jeopardy of being picked off as Jay forewarns....

I'm leaning toward a Michael boot now.