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"POST Tribal Shuffle Challenges Vidcaps"
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Flowerpower 7012 desperate attention whore postings
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02-07-12, 01:41 PM (EST)
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"POST Tribal Shuffle Challenges Vidcaps"
LAST EDITED ON 02-07-12 AT 02:04 PM (EST)


Post TRIBAL SHUFFLE Challenges

So far we have at least two post tribal shuffle challenges, maybe three. The first one I will post is the leaky water barrel challenge.

We see that 2 guys and 1 girl are all working together with the blue barrel, and we see a blue buff on the guy on the left of the frame. This is definitely post shuffle....




The girl in the middle is definitively Kim, and the guy on the right is definitively Michael. The guy on the left has been identified by Castaway208 at Sucks as Matt. I agree with him. Some at Sucks believe he is Troyzan because someone thinks that these shorts are the same as pictured above....

I disagree about the shorts, to me, they are different. I believe the guy on the left of the frame is Matt. I suppose we will definitively know when they get their bathing suits.

Second post tribal shuffle challenge

The water basketball challenge. We know that this challenge is for immunity...

Here are the vidcaps...

Kat and Sabrina...




Bill...

Colton...(and I believe Matt in front of him, face not seen)




Monica....








Jonas (with orange buff on wrist), Troy with blue buff around neck...





Leif...


Alicia with orange buff....

Jay with blue buff...




Tarzan, Greg:


(Note above that Greg is topless, and he's standing next to his tribemate, Christina, I believe at the start of the water basketball challenge)


Michael, now wearing blue buff, vs Leif, orange buff:






Christine, now in orange buff:


Christina and Sabrina (blue buff)




FWIW....I think that Sabrina is holding on to our mystery tribemate that is on the orange tribe. If we could tell who she is, we would have our first two boots, imo, fwiw....

Sabrina, with blue buff, and MYSTERY Orange tribe woman...


So, by the tribal swap, here is who we have:

So, here are who I have placed on the tribes post shuffle:
New Manono, orange : Leif, Bill, Alicia, Jonas, Colton, Christina, Greg, Mystery woman seen with Sabrina in the water basketball challenge (?Chelsea, Nina, Kourtney)
New Salani : Monica, Jay, Katt, Sabrina, Troyzan, Matt, Kimberly, Michael

***With all men accounted for post episode one, and in the post shuffle challenges, clearly our first boot will be one of the following females: Kourtney, Nina, Chelsea.

So, with 16 people seen, in the basketball water challenge, the tribal shuffle must occur most likely after the second boot, most likely in episode 3.

Manono wins episode one challenge. Going one step further, out of the five people that are not seen post shuffle - Kourtney, Nina, Chelsea - two of them are our first and second boots, while the remaining one will be on the ORANGE tribe, Salini, post shuffle. She is seen in the vidcap with Sabrina. So, I am thinking that Manono wins both the first and second episodes. The episode 3 IC is most likely with mixed tribes.

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge vidca... Flowerpower 02-07-12 1
   RE: Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge v... baddove 02-07-12 2
       Post merge Challenge Flowerpower 02-07-12 3
   RE: Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge v... jasonkola 02-11-12 15
   RE: Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge v... VolcanicGlass 02-28-12 40
       RE: Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge v... Blind Freddy 02-28-12 42
           RE: Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge v... VolcanicGlass 02-28-12 49
               RE: Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge v... Blind Freddy 02-28-12 50
                   RE: Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge v... Flowerpower 02-28-12 52
                       RE: Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge v... Outfrontgirl 02-28-12 53
                           RE: Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge v... Blind Freddy 02-28-12 55
                   RE: Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge v... VolcanicGlass 02-28-12 54
                       RE: Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge v... Outfrontgirl 02-28-12 56
                           RE: Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge v... VolcanicGlass 03-02-12 62
   RE: Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge v... Outfrontgirl 03-26-12 88
 Troyzan vs. Jay Comparison Flowerpower 02-08-12 4
   RE: Troyzan vs. Jay Comparison Blind Freddy 02-08-12 5
       RE: Troyzan vs. Jay Comparison Flowerpower 02-08-12 6
 MYSTERY SOLVED!!! Flowerpower 02-08-12 7
   RE: MYSTERY SOLVED!!! Outfrontgirl 02-08-12 8
       RE: MYSTERY SOLVED!!! Flowerpower 02-08-12 9
           RE: MYSTERY SOLVED!!! Outfrontgirl 02-08-12 10
   RE: MYSTERY SOLVED!!! tullfan 02-09-12 11
       RE: MYSTERY SOLVED!!! Flowerpower 02-09-12 12
   RE: MYSTERY SOLVED!!! Flowerpower 02-11-12 13
       Kim makes merge. baddove 02-11-12 14
           RE: Kim makes merge. Flowerpower 02-12-12 17
   RE: MYSTERY SOLVED!!! jasonkola 02-12-12 16
 Not Troyzan Flowerpower 02-17-12 18
   RE: Not Troyzan jasonkola 02-21-12 19
       RE: Not Troyzan Flowerpower 02-21-12 20
           RE: Not Troyzan jasonkola 02-21-12 21
               RE: Not Troyzan jasonkola 02-21-12 22
 RE: POST Tribal Shuffle Challenges ... Outfrontgirl 02-22-12 23
 1 more time...tribes post shuffle Flowerpower 02-23-12 24
   RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuff... jasonkola 02-23-12 25
       Greg, post shuffle Flowerpower 02-24-12 26
           RE: Greg, post shuffle Outfrontgirl 02-24-12 27
               RE: Greg, post shuffle Outfrontgirl 02-24-12 28
               RE: Greg, post shuffle Flowerpower 02-24-12 29
                   RE: Greg, post shuffle Outfrontgirl 02-24-12 30
                   RE: Greg, post shuffle jasonkola 02-24-12 31
                       RE: Greg, post shuffle Outfrontgirl 02-25-12 32
   Question re Bill Outfrontgirl 02-27-12 33
   RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuff... Outfrontgirl 02-27-12 34
       RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuff... jasonkola 02-28-12 35
       RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuff... jasonkola 02-28-12 36
           RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuff... Flowerpower 02-28-12 37
               RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuff... Outfrontgirl 02-28-12 38
               RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuff... VolcanicGlass 02-28-12 39
                   RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuff... Flowerpower 02-28-12 43
                       RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuff... VolcanicGlass 02-28-12 45
                           RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuff... Flowerpower 02-28-12 47
                       RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuff... jasonkola 02-28-12 46
                       RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuff... VolcanicGlass 03-02-12 57
                           RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuff... Flowerpower 03-02-12 58
   RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuff... Blind Freddy 02-28-12 41
       RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuff... VolcanicGlass 02-28-12 44
       RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuff... Flowerpower 02-28-12 48
           RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuff... Outfrontgirl 02-28-12 51
               RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuff... Flowerpower 03-02-12 59
                   RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuff... Sheldor 03-03-12 64
                       RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuff... dabo 03-03-12 65
                           RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuff... Sheldor 03-04-12 66
                       RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuff... Flowerpower 03-04-12 67
 Ep 5 - Tribal Shuffle Flowerpower 03-02-12 60
   RE: Ep 5 - Tribal Shuffle byoffer 03-02-12 61
       RE: Ep 5 - Tribal Shuffle Outfrontgirl 03-03-12 63
 You make the call! Flowerpower 03-07-12 68
   RE: You make the call! jasonkola 03-07-12 69
       RE: You make the call! Flowerpower 03-07-12 70
           RE: You make the call! PepeLePew13 03-07-12 71
               RE: You make the call! Flowerpower 03-07-12 72
                   RE: You make the call! PepeLePew13 03-07-12 73
                       RE: You make the call! jasonkola 03-07-12 74
                           RE: You make the call! Blind Freddy 03-07-12 75
   RE: You make the call! VolcanicGlass 03-07-12 78
 No Bill post Tribal Shuffle beaglemaster 03-07-12 76
 RE: POST Tribal Shuffle Challenges ... VolcanicGlass 03-07-12 77
   RE: POST Tribal Shuffle Challenges ... Outfrontgirl 03-08-12 79
       RE: POST Tribal Shuffle Challenges ... tribephyl 03-08-12 80
           Blind sided....dang it! beaglemaster 03-08-12 81
       Thoughts... Flowerpower 03-08-12 82
           RE: Thoughts... jasonkola 03-08-12 83
               RE: Thoughts... parathor 03-08-12 84
       RE: POST Tribal Shuffle Challenges ... VolcanicGlass 03-08-12 85
           RE: POST Tribal Shuffle Challenges ... Flowerpower 03-08-12 86
               RE: POST Tribal Shuffle Challenges ... Outfrontgirl 03-08-12 87

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Flowerpower 7012 desperate attention whore postings
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02-07-12, 02:04 PM (EST)
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1. "Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge vidcaps"
LAST EDITED ON 02-07-12 AT 02:06 PM (EST)


Ring toss, mudslide Challenge

I am speculating that this challenge occurs post MERGE, when the tribal color goes to black. To me, she looks as though she is indeed wearing a black buff.

She is clearly tossing an orange ring onto an orange receptacle...? She starts out on the blue tribe, and is blue after the first tribal shuffle. Could this be post merge, when the color of the tribes is BLACK? Food for thought.





Could this challenge be post merge? Food for thought...

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02-07-12, 04:22 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge vidcaps"
I agree that Kim has a black buff around her torso. The orange pole seems to be her individual "color" in what is an individual challenge.

Excellent work on slicing and dicing the many pics, Flower. The only problem is, you might want to put the Kim pics in a whole new category, "post merge."

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02-07-12, 07:15 PM (EST)
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3. "Post merge Challenge"
Thanks, baddove! I appreciate the validation of Kim and her black buff. Maybe I will start a new thread, future challenges. I'll start it after the tribal shuffle though, and when the game is well under way. We usually get a glimpse at future challenges at the re-crap as well. For now, it can sit here, in the post tribal shuffle challenge thread....
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02-11-12, 10:25 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge vidcaps"
Hi my name is Jason. I am new here, but I thought I would bring up one observation I made. It may be a black buff but it could also be the black Survivor logo that is at the top and bottom of each buff. I do not know how to post a pic yet but you can see examples of it on several of the girls pics wearing the blue buff. I first noticed it looking at the pic of the girls celebrating a win. Kim's biff has a black upper edge to it.
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02-28-12, 12:16 PM (EST)
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40. "RE: Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge vidcaps"
There is another sequence of Kim on the slip slide which shows more of her buff.

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02-28-12, 12:41 PM (EST)
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42. "RE: Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge vidcaps"
Really nice work there VG!!!!
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02-28-12, 03:47 PM (EST)
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49. "RE: Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge vidcaps"
BF, I would be very curious to know what you think of the buff. I keep going back and forth on whether it was altered. You may want to blow up the picture to check the detail.
Any thoughts either way?
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02-28-12, 05:12 PM (EST)
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50. "RE: Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge vidcaps"
Using my latest photo analysis tools...

This is the result running the first pic thru the s/w for analysis...

First pic of Kim...

Analysis tool result...

Any highlights shows alterations or changes. Note the CBS logo is lower right lights up b/c it was layered over the video. But the buff area looks clean.

Second Kim composite pic....

Analysis tool result:

This pic does show artifacts first b/c it is a copy and every copy or reproduction will degrade the pic and thus the integrity of the analysis. But also the composting(pasting together) added the artifacts as it went thru the editing process. But it doesn't matter as the first pic above looks clean.

Note this tool/analysis process isn't the definitive authority but it does give some indication of whether the pic has been 'worked' on. Additionally the 'analysis' pics posted above had to be resaved into JPG from PNG in order to be posted here...so there might be some degradation in the 'analysis' pics. But I think looking at both the original analysis PNGs and these JPGs the take-away interpretations are close enough.

Hope this helps.

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Flowerpower 7012 desperate attention whore postings
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02-28-12, 06:58 PM (EST)
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52. "RE: Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge vidcaps"
Simply amazing work, from BOTH of you! I am in awe! Originally I made my own video captures from the original video of Kim....and I caught the black looking buff. Then I noted that CBS had spoiled earlier that the merge color was going to be black....but, I am not an expert on photos, whatsoever, so I have to defer to the experts to determine if there has been any tampering....

If there was doctoring it could signal another shuffle...I question if the original shuffle is in episode 5, would they consider another shuffle prior to merge? Well, fwiw, if the shuffle breaks down as to how I expect, then Salani could win every challenge prior to the merge....if Salani ruled the challenges, perhaps they would consider another shuffle...food for thought?


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02-28-12, 07:36 PM (EST)
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53. "RE: Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge vidcaps"
I believe BF is saying that the buff on Kim appears to be genuinely black and not a product of Buffomatic. There is no reason for them to have altered that one buff, so I think it makes most sense that for whatever reason they wanted to use a pic of Kim from post-merge.

I see her as a shoe-in to make merge. She has all the skills they need, but is quiet enough to where she shouldn't ping the boot radar. There is so much drama on these tribes, they need to keep the level-headed one.

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02-28-12, 09:04 PM (EST)
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55. "RE: Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge vidcaps"
LAST EDITED ON 02-28-12 AT 09:17 PM (EST)

To clarify...to the best of my understanding of the tool analysis....there doesn't appear to be any tampering/alteration in the first Kim buff pic. The second pic analysis is irrelevant since it was obviously altered in the editing into a pic sequence by VG.

All that said...it is not by any means definitive since the s/w is dependent on many factors.....most important of which is the originiality of source pic. The closer you can get get to the first generation of the pic(original) the more accurate the results are. And of course a vidcap is a second generation source at its start. With CBS PR pics...we might have them by the throat if they try it there.

But for this vidcap of Kim and the buff....at this time, my best analysis says it is unaltered. YMMV (your mileage may vary)

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02-28-12, 09:00 PM (EST)
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54. "RE: Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge vidcaps"
This is a great tool, BF.

The detection may be more reliable on pictures than on vidcaps of video. I did a couple of experiments. Changes that were applied directly to the vidcap were quite obvious, while the same changes applied to a video from which a vidcap was then extracted produced inconclusive results. Without getting too technical, contrast also seems to factor into the results, with high contrast areas showing up as highlights that are not necessarily manipulated.

I'm not going to worry too much about this. As was pointed out, we know the merge color, we know that Kim is on new Salani, so whatever the explanation is for Kim splashing down the Manono-colored slipslide will be answered soon enough.

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02-28-12, 10:36 PM (EST)
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56. "RE: Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge vidcaps"
oh, I didn't understand the comments about a second swap. I just figured that orange and blue will be two of the rainbow of colors used in individual challenges, and that Kim happens to be on orange.

Perhaps if she had been on purple or green lane in that challenge they wouldn't have shown it, but the orange does fit right in for the casual viewer who hasn't obsessed over what color is worn in which challenges, and the black buff doesn't stand out all that much as a promo slips by.

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03-02-12, 09:34 PM (EST)
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62. "RE: Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge vidcaps"
I feel like this has devolved into that old telephone party game.

When I examine something, I like to look at all possibilities and use the evidence to eliminate those which are not viable. I was trying to be succinct in my discussion, rather than to have a full blown exposition of all the possibilities, and why they may or may not be viable. To the extent that I have apparently confused everyone, I regret posting this question. I should have addressed it privately.

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03-26-12, 09:30 AM (EST)
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88. "RE: Ring Toss/Mud Slide Challenge vidcaps"
Bumping for slip and slide and ring toss challenge.
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02-08-12, 09:09 AM (EST)
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4. "Troyzan vs. Jay Comparison"
LAST EDITED ON 02-08-12 AT 09:49 AM (EST)


Polonium has brought up a very debatable point. I am going to try and post comparison shots so everyone can make up their own minds....it could change our previous speculation as to who is there, and who isn't by the post tribal shuffle challenges...

First, here are the pictures in question....is the man jumping on top of Jonas Troyzan, as first spec'd by Blind Freddy I think, or is he Jay?




Right off the bat I note that he's wearing his buff around his neck, AND he's wearing NO bracelets. Would Troyzan remove his bracelets?

Here's some comparison shots...





Note the hair lines


both are muscular, Jay is bigger...


Hands...


After careful examination, I am inclined to agree with Polonium. That's Jay, not Troyzan. Troy has longer hair, I doubt if he would take off all of his bracelets, his muscles are not as big as Jay's, Troyzan's nose is more pointed. I think that is Jay with Jonas, we know he is wearing his buff around his neck and he's going after Jonas, on the Orange tribe right there.

So, what does this mean...

Troyzan makes it past episode one, we know this as he's seen in the sling shot challenge and the belt's challenge, both spec'd to be in at least ep 2, where the girls tribe wins. So, if the girls win IC, then Troy could be booted.

If Matt is in the orangish plaid/flowered shorts, as identified by Castaway208, then he is seen in the water basketball challenge vs. Colton, AND, seen in the leaky water barrel challenge as well. It looks as though Troyzan could be in danger of being an early boot as there is no siting of him post ep 2.

Likely to be first boot: Girls lose, Nina, Kourtney, Chelsea
Likely to be second boot: Girls lose: Nina, Kourtney, Chelsea/ Boys lose: Troyzan

Also just wanted to note who we see definitively post tribal swap, either in the water basketball challenge, OR, the leaky water barrel challenge:

Manono, Orange tribe: Jonas, Leif, Greg, Bill, Colton, Christina, Alicia, Mystery women (being held by Sabrina in the water basketball challenge, ?Chelsea) Note pic of mystery woman here:

Salani, Blue tribe: Jay, Matt, Michael, Kim, Kat, Sabrina, Monica,

We may be off here, since the orange tribe has 5 guys and the blue only has 3. We know Colton is orange because he's going against Matt in the water challenge, as identified by his trunks. So, perhaps Bill, whose buff is unseen, is on the Blue tribe. I don't know?

Those in question: Kourtney, Nina, Troy, ?Chelsea.....One of these women is seen as the mystery Orange Buffed woman that Sabrina is getting here:
*Also, just because we can't account for everyone, doesn't definitively mean that they are not there....UGH. We can account for 15 people in the challenge. Most likely the water basketball challenge, as we know is for immunity, in episode 3 or 4. Could the medivac be this early....that would account for 3 people already gone at episode 3.

So, at the water basketball challenge we are either short 2 people, or 3 people.

Would love to hear others thoughts...

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02-08-12, 03:50 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Troyzan vs. Jay Comparison"
Troy vs Jay
Ok I'm open for revisiting the vidcap ID....
First off, good work all...
Let's bring in the F*B*I handy-dandy 10 point facial recognition comparison checklist into play...

I worked on the pics a bit, taking color out of the mix and enhancing as best as possible...also greyed-out and enhanced the individual ID pics to help make a better comparison possible.

Hmmmm...while there are several items that favor a Jay ID (neckbuff, lack of wrist bands, musculature), there are also convincing Troy items (recessed hairline, broad nose, wild hair). So while I am no longer solid in the Troy court, the Jay argument isn't a slam dunk either for me.

Fwiw...TDT has the guy IDed as Jay over at his site.

Can we just call him 'Jayzan'...or...'Tray'?
In lieu of that...your thoughts?

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02-08-12, 07:39 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Troyzan vs. Jay Comparison"
Freddy....you are the BEST! I love your work here. I have agonized over this all morning. I really think it is hard to decipher. The guys hair seems shorter than Troyzan's to me, and Troyzan's nose is pointier...I also think that crinkle over his upper nose, between the eyebrows is significant on Jay....

Definitely a tough one to call but it makes a big difference as far as the scenarios go....Let's look at the time line. First episode there is one big RC/IC and the Orange/Men/Manono win. So Kourtney/Nina/Chelsea is out.

There are at least 2 more men vs. women challenges, and they could be in ep 2, or ep 2 and 3. Most likely they are both from episode 2. One should be reward, and other would be for immunity. We see that the girls/Salani win the belts challenge. If it is the immunity challenge, then Troyzan must be the boot, as we have no further pictures of him in post-shuffle challenges, while we have pictures of every other man in post shuffle challenges.

If the belt challenge that the girls/Salani tribe wins is the RC, then the girls or the boys could win the IC...boot could be: Troyzan, one of Nina/Kourtney/Chelsea.

In the IC for episode 3, the basketball water challenge, everyone is seen post tribal shuffle now except: Troyzan, Nina, Kourtney, Chelsea. My gut is that the mystery girl that Sabrina is around is Chelsea....so, there are either 16 people in the challenge, or 15. If there are 15 people in the challenge, then someone has to sit out.

Who we see participating...

Blue Salani: Jay, Michael, Matt, Monica, Sabrina, Kat,
Orange Manono: Colton, Leif, Greg, Jonas, Christine, Alicia, ?Mystery woman-Chelsea?

Seen but we don't know what tribe he is on: Bill
Not seen at all: Troyzan, Kourtney, Nina, ?Chelsea?....

As this is most likely episode 3, then 2 or 3 of the above could be out already....if there is a medivac already. If 2 out of the above are out, then someone is likely sitting out, either Troyzan or one of the girls. All of this speculation makes me think that Bill will most likely be on the blue Salani tribe then?

If the diving picture on top of Jonas IS Troyzan, then all men are accounted for post tribal shuffle, and therefore it will be 2 women that are voted out prior to this challenge....could be 3 people gone though if there is an early medivac...


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02-08-12, 08:13 PM (EST)
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7. "MYSTERY SOLVED!!!"
LAST EDITED ON 02-08-12 AT 08:18 PM (EST)

So....I go over to peruse TDT's site and see a link to Jay Byers Facebook page photos. I click on it and low and behold I find this picture....(date: Sept 9, 2010)

LOOK AT THE BATHING TRUNKS THAT HE IS WEARING!!!! See how the flower petals curl, identical to the latter pictures from the show...

They are the same as these....


The guy on the left side of the leaky water bucket challenge is NOT Matt, it is NOT Troy, but it is JAY!!! So, this is of Jay, getting Colton here....

So, now I am thinking that perhaps the guy jumping on Jonas is Troyzan afterall, because his shorts/trunks are solid dark...

I still don't know who is jumping on Jonas...?

So, if orangish shorts guy in leaky barrel challenge is Jay, and Troyzan is jumping on Jonas, then where oh where is Matt??? Hmmmmm?

Food for thought!


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02-08-12, 08:40 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: MYSTERY SOLVED!!!"
Spectacular, FP! Bravo!

So Troyzan has plaid shorts and orange shorts with a pattern. I doubt the orange would look black even when it's wet.

Three pairs would seem excessive, no?

Could Matt have black shorts?

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02-08-12, 08:48 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: MYSTERY SOLVED!!!"
Hi OFG: I think the brown plaid shorts that Troyzan was wearing were just plain shorts...I don't think they were swimming trunks. Many of the daws are seen with different bathing trunks then they are wearing in the pre-game. The guy jumping on Jonas is clearly either Jay or Troyzan. If Jay has the flowered/plaid/paisley swim trunks on as seen in front of Colton and in the water barrel challenge shot, then those dark shorts MUST be on Troyzan....no one else has the long hair like they do....

At least that's my take on it...

That can not be Matt because of the dark long hair on him.


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02-08-12, 11:07 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: MYSTERY SOLVED!!!"
oh right, I momentarily forgot that was the same shot with long haired receding corners of hairline guy -- who is either Troyzan or Jay -- so if they only get the one pair of swim trunks (seems right), then Jay.

I didn't realize that the other was a pre-game shot with non-game clothing, but thank you, now I do.

Jeff's cast assessment is really down on Matt's chances. His invisibility post shuffle might just be significant.

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02-09-12, 10:35 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: MYSTERY SOLVED!!!"
Flower,

Congrats! That is an amazing find! So it is still possible that the belted challenge, that the women won, is for Immunity and the men vote out Matt.

Several possibilities - if Kourtney is evacuated after the IC in ep. 1 perhaps the women still have to go to TC and vote a person out (eg. Foa Foa voted out Betsy even though Mike was evactuated). Maybe the swap doesn't take place until ep. 4 after 2 women and one man are voted out. Maybe Kourtney and Matt are eliminated in the first 2 episodes then the swap happens and both Nina and Chelsea make it to the new tribes.

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02-09-12, 02:03 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: MYSTERY SOLVED!!!"
Thanks, tullfan! You are right, the women could win the ep 2 IC, and the belted challenge could be it. You have noted three possible scenarios.

I am speculating that the tribal shuffle occurs in episode 3, after 2 boots, most likely planned for then as the tribes would be even. But, if there is a medivac as well, then regardless, the shuffle would occur with 3 people gone.

Or, there is no medivac yet, and 2 people are gone, booted in the traditional time line, and there are folks that are just not seen.

Or, it could occur in episode 4 with 3 people gone to date.

To sum it up

Not seen anywhere after episode 1: Kourtney, Nina, Chelsea, but one of them is seen in the water basketball challenge with Sabrina, we just don't know which one.

One female MUST go in episode 1, maybe 2 go, if there is a female medivac.

Not seen anywhere after episode 2: Kourtney, Nina, Chelsea One of them is seen in the water basketball challenge with Sabrina, just don't know which one.
Matt, Troyzan Troyzan may be the one that is jumping on Jonas in the water basketball challenge. If that person is NOT Troyzan, than he is not seen anywhere either post tribal shuffle.

So, there are possibly 4 people that are NOT seen post tribal shuffle, 2 girls and 2 guys...at least 2 of them are gone by way of tc boot, maybe 3. Someone could be a medivac, or 2 of them may just not be shown, but still there.


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02-11-12, 06:35 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: MYSTERY SOLVED!!!"
LAST EDITED ON 02-16-12 AT 08:27 PM (EST)

Before and After Survivor...

**I want to clarify....when I found the later picture of the skinny Jay on Facebook it was labeled 2010, which would have made the picture pre-Survivor. But, keep in mind, if he posted that picture on facebook, he could have labeled it anything he wanted to. But, on further examination, would one wear very old trunks on the show? I don't think so, I would think that he would wear brand new trunks on the show. If that were the case than the above shot is POST Survivor. I believe that it is post survivor, but there is some question...I'll let you decide.


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02-11-12, 07:11 PM (EST)
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14. "Kim makes merge."
Kim is shown as a blue (Salani) player in the leaky bucket challenge, and in the ring toss is throwing to an orange pole. I maintain the orange pole is her individual color in a post merge contest. Unless there are two tribe swaps (which I doubt, but its possible.)
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02-12-12, 08:35 AM (EST)
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17. "RE: Kim makes merge."
Yes, baddove, that is settled! Kim is seen in the ringtoss, water slide challenge wearing her black buff, merge color. She is indeed seen post merge. You are right. Once the show starts I'll start up a new thread where we can put future challenges and beyond.


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02-12-12, 00:19 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: MYSTERY SOLVED!!!"
LAST EDITED ON 02-12-12 AT 01:18 AM (EST)

Great catch on those shorts I thought for sure they were Troyzan's.
The more I look at that pic of the guy tackling Jonas the more I think it is Jay. Jay has darker shorts like that. Plus if you look closely he appears to be wearing a striped shirt which Jay has as well. I will try to post a pic if I can figure out how.

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02-17-12, 10:27 PM (EST)
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18. "Not Troyzan"
Now that we finally see Troyzan's bathing trunks...

...we can definitively say that this guy dunking Jonas is NOT Troy, so it must be Jay...


Definitely those are NOT yellow trunks...fwiw.

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02-21-12, 02:54 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Not Troyzan"
It has been bugging me who is tackling Jonas and Colton. Both shorts seem to match Jay. But they can not both be Jay unless these pics are from different challenges. I have seen Troy in two pairs of shorts that do not match. I have seen Mat in two pairs of shorts that do not match. So unless someone has 3 pairs of shorts. The only other thing that makes any sense is that either the guys are sharing shorts or these pics are from different challenges. To me it looks like it is Jay who is tackling Jonas. but all we see is shorts in front of Colton. I have been racking my brain trying to figure this out. Any thoughts?
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02-21-12, 08:29 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Not Troyzan"
Hi Jason: I really think that the shorts in front of Colton are indeed Jay, you can barely see the pattern, yet I do believe it is there. But, look how dark those shorts appear when they are soaking wet. I do believe that it is Jay jumping on Jonas...maybe the shorts there are appearing as dark as they are in front of Colton...I dunno?



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02-21-12, 10:15 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Not Troyzan"
Yes I agree it dose look like the pattern in Jays shorts in front of Colton.

But I think the lighting in the pic of him tackling Jonas would be good enough to show some of the colors in the patterns. Maybe not. I have a hunch these clips may be from different challenges wearing different shorts.

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02-21-12, 11:20 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Not Troyzan"
I would like to add one more thing I noticed. Jay has been shown in 3 pairs of shorts who knows how many pairs every one has. he has been shown in green, patterned, and darker shorts I posted above. just food for thought.
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02-22-12, 07:04 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: POST Tribal Shuffle Challenges Vidcaps"
LAST EDITED ON 02-22-12 AT 07:08 PM (EST)

Asking because I have no memory of what video clip this cap is from and whether it is seamless with the water basketball. Are we sure this cap is not from the balance beam challenge? There is no apparatus in view here, and we know the balance beam is immunity and in the same water.

ETA: never mind, I see the different backgrounds, and the one below is from the Ep 2 promos. Also looks like Jiffy has one more button fastened in Ep 2. Guess he loosens up in Ep 3.

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02-23-12, 10:25 PM (EST)
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24. "1 more time...tribes post shuffle"
OKay, I have really been working with the few vidcaps we have to try and pinpoint who is indeed at the IC post tribal shuffle, and who isn't. If we can figure this out, we can pinpoint who our episode 3 bootee is, as well as who is most likely to go in episode 4. First of all let's look at the vidcap that Blind Freddy blew up for me...

Now here are shots of the girls and guys in their bathing suits, thanks to Volcanic Glass...


Now, I am going to point to a few things in the blow up with Jiffy situated on his platform. Here is a blow up and a progression that Volcanic Glass did for us....it is clearer, and it has better color....THANKS so much, VG!

I have labeled who I think is in this shot....

First of all, there are 4 people to Jiffy's right, (left of the frame), situated in front of the blue banners. I propose that these 4 people are on the Salani/blue tribe. Then, there are 3 people on the other side of Jiffy, that we see, and they are most likely on the Manono/orange tribe.

This shot was taken when Leif vs. Michael, and Sabrina was vs. Christina and who we thought was Chelsea. I propose that the girl on the far left of the frame is approaching the action and getting into the game. I propose that she is wearing her buff around her midriff, and that she is from the Salani/blue tribe.

First of all, in the group of 4 people standing in front of the blue banners, I think we can see Kim on the far right of that group, in the black bikini bottoms...she is tall and thin. Her hips are wider and she has a very narrow, slender waist and rib cage...Next to her, I believe is Kat, she is shorter. Then I think Jay is on the far side, he's the tallest, and then I propose that the guy behind Jay and next to Kat is Troyzan. You can see that he has dark hair that is to his shoulders...see how his neck is not as defined as Jay's is...it's because of his hair, imo. (One could argue that who I think is Troy could possibly be Matt with his buff around his neck? This is debatable...but Matt, is taller than Jay...)

Then, when we go to the group of 3 that are most likely from Manono, I start with Colton in the middle, he's in the lighter trunks. Next to him, on the left of the frame, next to Jiffy, I think it is Bill. Then on the other side of Colton, I think it is Jonas, in the dark trunks. You can see Jonas at the top with his hand on his hip. Please note that Bill's bathing trunks are obsured by water and the hand.

Ok, we know there are 2 guys on the side for Salani, 3 guys on the side for Manono, and we know that Leif and Michael are competing in the competition. So, we have identified 7 guys, plus one guy SITTING OUT, which I propose is Greg/Tarzan. So, if there are only 8 guys in this challenge then the guys have to lose in episode 3, which has now been confirmed, guys lose ep 3 IC. And, the only one that I cannot find is Matt. Therefore, I highly suspect that Matt is gone in episode 3 TC. (Greg is seen in previous vidcaps before this challenge next to his tribe mate, Christina.)

Now for the girls....we see Kat and Kim back with the stand outs for Salani, and no girls on the side line with Manono. There is a girl approaching on the left side of the frame, that I believe is Monica. She has a dark blue buff around her middle, dark hair...I do believe that it is Monica, and she is on the blue/Salani tribe....I will add that it could possibly be Chelsea....Chelsea has a bathing suit that has ties on the side of her bottoms, as does Monica, and they are of similar color...(If it is Chelsea approaching, than it is most likely Monica in front of Sabrina in the challenge...)

Either way, Monica and Chelsea are both accounted for. So, definitively we have 7 girls. So 8 guys, 7 girls, Boys must lose the IC in episode 3, as has now been confirmed by noting the II in the second promo, thanks Blind Freddy!

Also, here is what I propose are the tribes post shuffle:

Blue/Salani (7 members): Kat, Kim, Sabrina, Monica, Jay, Michael, Troyzan
Orange/Manono (8 members): Chelsea, Alicia, Christina, Greg/Tarzan, Leif, Colton, Bill, Jonas

Furthermore, I am going to add just for fun, and as I have spec'd earlier, I believe that the Blue Salani tribe will win this challenge. I think I noted that it's not a good sign that the tallest guy is going up against the shortest guy... therefore, I predict that Bill will be the ep 4 boot. He is the only one that is not in the misfit alliance, and we know that Colton prefers the girls, and we see at some point that Bill and Colton have a big argument.

And, if Bill is a possibility to be the next boot we have to consider that the flight spoiler could be holding some water....less Nina.

Again, thanks so much to Blind Freddy for originally blowing up that pic, and then to Volcanic Glass that did a fantastic job with the frame and the progression! Better than I could have imagined it, thank-you!


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02-23-12, 10:57 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuffle"
LAST EDITED ON 02-23-12 AT 11:16 PM (EST)

Wow FP you have better eyes than I do for sure. I just have one question. Although I agree Mat is the most likely one going home ep3. Sense we can not see who is sitting out this challenge how do we know for sure it is Mat voted out and not Greg. The CBS promo's could be trying to mislead us into thinking this. Just some food for thought.

Oh and another thought. Is it not possible the swap dose not happen till ep5 and no one is sitting out. Just another thought to consider.

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02-24-12, 07:33 AM (EST)
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26. "Greg, post shuffle"
Jason, as noted above, Greg/Tarzan is assumed to make the shuffle, because here he is standing next to his new tribemate, Christina, shirtless, most likely showing up for the water challenge...there is another picture of him above where he is all wet, and the beard growth is there...

As for the eyes, clearly it is speculation that I'm doing with the vidcap progression. There probably are a few holes. I can't see them definitively, but working with what we have from this post, knowing who is definitively on blue/orange, then trying to plug in the sizes and shapes with the people standing there, along with clothing. As I said, mostly it's about who's there, how many are there, guys/girls. The only one not accounted for in the progression is Alicia, but we know that she is there because we have a picture of her in her orange buff...


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02-24-12, 08:34 AM (EST)
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27. "RE: Greg, post shuffle"
Remarkable, FloPo!

Now I'm going to ask the most challenging questions I can think of ...

You cleared up that it is not said anywhere by anyone on production crew or Jeff that slingshot is an IC; it was the press person who thought that. If so, it works to have water basketball in Ep 4 as the next IC.

How do we know though that there is a sit-out? Do we see one?
Greg is wet here, his hair is wet, would it get that way sitting out?

As a note: haven't there been challenges like this one where instead of a sit-out, someone goes extra times?

Question about orange buff girl Sabrina is holding, do we know for sure she is not Christina?

Number of people:
Wouldn't Salini be down a person, because they usually keep the tribe numbers the same when they swap? Are they? Shouldn't they have 7 players and Manono 8?

I can't tell who the male figures back by the Salini flag are, but I do think that is Kim in the dark bottoms and it is Cat by default, also as you point out, we know that Jay is Salini. So Troy or Matt is the mystery.

Neck I can't see anything, height not sure because people may bend knees. Almost looks like some yellow there (Troyzan). Matt has the black trunks.

One thing folks have mentioned at Sucks is that Matt is super into tweeting about the show and they are surprised he is so enthusiastic if he goes out next. I haven't been following the tweets. Who knows, maybe he wants to get the most bang out of a short term buck.

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02-24-12, 08:52 AM (EST)
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28. "RE: Greg, post shuffle"
PS. These are Matt's tweets:
https://twitter.com/#!/Matt_Quinlan

On question of what happened to his visibility last week, he said:
went the way of a church mouse in Ep2... Like to keep those bloggers off my a** for being loud, brash & cocky for at least 1 wk ;)

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02-24-12, 10:11 AM (EST)
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29. "RE: Greg, post shuffle"
All good points, OFG. First of all, I had ASSumed that Greg is there because he is seen next to Christina, who is likely his tribemate at the time, and he's shirtless which makes me think it is before the water basketball challenge. I presume that the water basketball challenge is the FIRST WATER challenge post shuffle, but I could definitely be wrong about it. This is my speculation, that I have composed with definitive siting of the players post shuffle, but by all means it could be wrong or off a bit.

If, when a guy goes in episode 3, we know that the blue tribe is down by one. And, I do spec that the blue tribe remains with one less, post shuffle...

blue: Jay, Michael, Troyzan, Kat, Kim, Sabrina, Monica = 7
Orange: Leif, Colton, Jonas, Tarzan, Bill, Alicia, Chelsea, Christina = 8

This spec presumes that Greg sits out, as the orange tribe is one up, someone from orange has to sit out, IF, this is the first IC post shuffle that I presume occurs in episode 4.

But, as I missed them not booting someone in episode 1, and we had to adjust for Nina being booted in episode 2, I could be off by one here as well. As I said, it's speculation, I suppose my best "guess" as to the timeline.

We do know FOR SURE that Sabrina is NOT holding Christina, as if you watch that promo it pans to the left and we see Christina is there as well, but away from Sabrina and who ever she is holding.

Troy or Matt is the mystery! I have stated my case for it being Troy....same height as Jay, not taller, and the brownish thick neck...?Troy's hair?

Definitely, could be off....

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02-24-12, 09:41 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: Greg, post shuffle"
I want to start by saying my brain was tired on that last post. It was 2 am and why I was even posting is a mystery. Of course you did have the tribe numbers right. Also, I really want the note of congratulation for your stellar work to be primary over any questioning.

The questioning is just to see if there are any holes in this fantastic argument, because it is easy to say "I'm convinced" and sometimes we figure out more when we question.

You are the queen of grace in qualifying all the ways things could be different.

I think you are quite right in the assumption that Greg is there. What I was questioning was whether he is a sit out, because his hair is drenched in that shot. Yes it could be another challenge, we don't know. Is he a logical sitout? Yes. Possible there is no sit out? With teams of two, maybe so, they might want to run eight from each team and have a Salini go twice. I recall numerous challenges in the past where all compete but one goes extra, although none recently.

I really can't see the hair on "Troyzan" or the neck. My eyes won't do it!
I have some Troyzan hinkies from the promos showing him so cocky, but it may be that they want to do a surprise boot of Matt -- but no, they feature him in the promos too, and have given us plenty of badmouthing against Matt, so it is not going to come as a surprise.

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02-24-12, 10:22 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: Greg, post shuffle"
I know this is somewhat off subject but it is related to FP's spec as to the tribe members in each tribe so I will post it here. Maybe it belongs in another thread. If so let me know and I will start another thread.

But my question is how do you feel the alliances will align after the shuffle providing the tribes are split as FP stated:

blue: Jay, Michael, Troyzan, Kat, Kim, Sabrina, Monica

Orange: Leif, Colton, Jonas, Tarzan, Bill, Alicia, Chelsea, Christina

I would like to point out that at the last TC several of the girls admitted that if they had it to do all over again they would pic their alliance differently. That being said things could get mixed up as far as alliances go. Lets say the girls stick to their Alliance and the guys do as well. The girls who were on the outs on the premerge Monica and Christine would most likely want to join the guys. I can especially see this happening with Christine. Especially considering the hints CBS has released indicating an alliance between Christine and Jonas. Here is a couple pics that made me consider this.

I know their is a lot of possibilities. I just thought I would see what everyone else thought. If this belongs in another thread let me know and I will repost in in another thread. Jason

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02-25-12, 08:07 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: Greg, post shuffle"
Good catch, Jason! I hadn't fixated on what they were showing yet. Christina and Jonas could well feel a bond with their Asian heritage, even though Jonas is Japanese-American and from Hawai'i, which is a very specific background and Japanese and Chinese or Korean (Christina) are very different cultures in Hawai'i from the Japanese ... very separate.

But still, Christina needs an ally, and Jonas is outside the frat boy alliance. It looks like both the "outsider" women are honing in on him.

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02-27-12, 11:17 PM (EST)
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33. "Question re Bill"
Does this wooden structure appear in any caps that we know to be of the water basketball challenge?

Second, with the player opposing Bill, is there any more that could have been captured from the video -- similar to the peek of Cat VG found?

I see a nose, but what is that protruding into the frame above? Is it a buff? If so, it is orange not blue. It almost looks like the bill of a cap to me, it sticks out so far into the frame. And is this a male or female, judging by the arms? What about the height, a bit shorter than Bill?

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34. "RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuffle"
Are the pics of Jay and Alicia, side by side in the same video?

It looks like they are from the progression, but without a link to the video I don't want to assume.

Question: if Jay is back by Jeff in the blow-up pic, and he and Alicia are in together, would that make it less likely for Alicia to be the one Sabrina is holding? Or do you think these are from different heats where they mix it all up?

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35. "RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuffle"
In this pic I just noticed something. I was thinking the face looks more female but the arm looks too big to be female. Then I noticed we are looking at the inside of the elbow That arm is to the left of her face so how could we be looking at the inside of the elbow. I now believe that arm belongs to a guy and the face to a girl ant there is two people on the right.


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36. "RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuffle"
Here is one clip.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=2xYKNlHZuNY

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37. "RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuffle"
LAST EDITED ON 02-28-12 AT 08:00 AM (EST)

Great posting the clip here, Jason. I have found something. First of all, there are indeed 2 people going after Bill. I think the orange blur at the top of the frame is something on shore, like perhaps the orange banner. I think the structure must be the basketball structure, where the hoops most likely are built, or, it could possibly be where Jiffy's platform is. It is more likely the hoops structure though. And, it's not a nose on the right, but fingers and then lower is the thumb. You can see it on the video.

Now...here is the vidcap I just made...

You can see a LiveStrong yellow band on the right wrist...so, which of the daws has one of those???

1. Colton
2. Troyzan

I speculate that this is a 7 vs 7 challenge. We see that there are 3 vs. 3 at first...most likely blue Michael, Sabrina, and Kat vs. Orange Leif, Christina, Alicia.

So, the next group that would go would be the 4 vs 4 that are standing on the side lines at the time of the first group fighting on. So it would be Colton, Bill, Jonas, and Tarzan going against Jay, Kim, Chelsea, and Troyzan.

WE see Jay vs Jonas

Jay vs. Colton...

We see Kat and Sabrina competing at the same time....the hand there is either Alicia's or Christina's...

Michael vs. Leif...

So, the yellow banded arm is either Troyzan or Colton, both are out there at the same time as Bill, and multiple hands are likely to be in the shot, guarding, blocking, getting ready to receive a pass, etc.

With these pictures, I am more sure of my speculation as to the breakdown of the tribes...

Blue: Jay, Troyzan, Michael, Kim, Kat, Chelsea, Sabrina
Orange: Leif, Bill, Colton, Jonas, Tarzan, Alicia, Christina

If, Monica is there, she will be on Orange, but I am beginning to think she'll be toast....in ep 4.

PS. Ofg: Alicia's clips were from a promo on Alicia, they were isolated shots, so no progression with others in the frames. Jay was also isolated running, and his running shots were in the same promo as Monica's falling into the water from the balance beam challenge....fwiw.


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38. "RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuffle"
Thanks so much for the efforts and great catches!
jason, excellent point about the inside view of the arm, and Flo Po getting the arm of third person with yellow band on wrist.

It looks to me like a bit of dark blue on the one arm. If they weren't shirtless I would think it's the edge of a T-shirt sleeve, but could it be a bit of blue buff wrapped around the arm?

I guess it could be a shadow but it seems odd placement.

I am loling that I saw a nose and a cap brim when it was part of a hand. Oh well, the eye sometimes sees what it thinks would be there, at least mine does.

It is looking bad for Monica. Can't see why she would sit out of a challenge like this as I think she'd be very good at it.

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39. "RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuffle"
FP pulled a lot of the same vidcaps I did, so I won't go over what she already posted.

In terms of who is on each tribe post-swap, the ones for which we have direct evidence are:

MANONO: Alicia / Christina / Jonas / Leif
SALANI: Jay / Kat / Kim / Michael / Sabrina

FP speculated that Tarzan might be on new Manono because he is seen standing next to Christina on one sequence, but we also have the shot of him apparently on the Salani waterball bench. Conflicting info for me.

Since there are bound to be multiple heats, we should not assume that the individual shots come from a 4x4 of the players sitting out the 3x3. With that in mind, it's worth trying to identify as many of the groupings first.

We have a shot of Bill (no buff visible) against Colton/Troyzan and one other person, probably male. FWIW, this vidcap looks to be flipped. Bill's tattoos are on his left arm, while both Colton and Troyzan wear the yellow plastic bracelet om their left wrist.

In this vidcap, we can see four different men: Colton, Jay, the one holding Colton, and the one behind the Colton grouping.

In this vidcap, which is a few frames further on the one of Leif with his wedding band, we can see the shape of the right arm of the person holding him. He also has a beauty mark, so it may help for comparison.

In this vidcap, we see Jay running. It could be part of the same sequence as when he falls on Jonas, but they are not edited together. The salient point is that there is an arm, which looks to belong to a woman, on the left part of the frame, reaching over to him. That would suggest that Jay takes part in at least one heat where at least one Manono woman takes part.

Since the group at the back of the 3x3 action is just not clear enough, it may be worth checking the relative heights to determine where the rest of the players are situated. With that in mind, I tried to get a better working close-up of the Salani and Manono benches.

Unfortunately, the men were crouching during the balance beam challenge, so there's no decent comparison of heights of them in bathing suits. The following line-up at the E2IC mat will have to do.


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43. "RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuffle"
Hiya VG! Great to see you in here and most appreciative of your comments. Your vidcaps have been amazing too, and we couldn't have gotten this far without them! I agree that the groups could mix up in who they go up aganist. But, they are likely to keep the numbers even...2 vs 2, 3 vs 3, 4 vs 4, maybe 5 vs 5, all the way up to 7 vs 7. Just don't know how the heats will break down.

Another point with basketball type challenges is that there are likely to be players from the same team in many of the same shots going after passes, or trying to get the ball, etc. For example, we can't rule out that the female hand in this picture isn't actually one of his teammates hands...

I speculate that these frames both include Michael vs. Leif...


Here is Michael's right arm with the beauty mark/mole on it..

As for the blow up, which is amazing, VG!...

Yes, you are right in that we have confirmation of the tribes as you have listed above. But, as I've tried to note it is indeed speculation. However, at this point, I am feeling better and better about them. It is easiest to see that 2 of the four Salani are male, while 2 are female. And, all of the four on the Manono side are male. We know that Kat, Sabrina, Alicia, and Christina are all in the middle of the challenge at this point, so who is left? Kim, Chelsea, and Monica. I have to use reasoning to speculate that the 2nd girl in front of the Salani banners is Chelsea, rather than Monica. Note I can make out darker hair on Jay, Troyzan, and Kim, but the fourth one's is lighter. You can see that Chelsea's hair is much lighter than Monica's when they are seen side by side on the balance beam. Still, it's by process of elimination and best guess. Thanks for the blowups and the great observations you make available for us...especially, look at this pic with Colton, and Jay is in front. I agree there are 2 other guys there...

You can see the lower half of the guy's face, to Colton's back, you can see his heavy beard and his mouth...who is that? Could that be Michael? And, is he helping Colton, or against him? Hard to tell.


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02-28-12, 01:39 PM (EST)
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45. "RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuffle"
FP, you know I think the world of you. ;)
I wasn't rejecting your spec, just trying to approach the dissecting of vidcaps with fresh eyes, given the additional information we have at this point, to avoid taking something as given that could be disproved.

I agree that we do appear to have arrived to a good conclusion on the new tribes.
MANONO: Alicia, Bill, Christina, Colton, Jonas, Leif, Tarzan
SALANI: Chelsea, Jay, Kat, Kim, Michael, Sabrina, Troyzan

Well done.

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47. "RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuffle"
Well done.....right back at you, VG! You are a wise woman, and many times you with your observations prevail over what I think I see, or what I'm "expecting" to see. I suppose I want to figure it all out at once, but time and again, it just seems to unfold. Thankfully with your help and approach.

And, I do post thoughts, observations from my vantage point particularly to expose it to the masses, who find many things that I don't. You finding Kat, someone on Sucks finding Kourtney kneeling on the top of the challenge, and even Benson arguing that he thought the approaching lady was Christina. Togetherness is the key!



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46. "RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuffle"
To me that looks like Troyzan tackling Colton from behind with Jay standing in front. I noticed two freckles on his shoulder I am going to see if I can get a match from that.
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57. "RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuffle"
Michael, it is.

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58. "RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuffle"
WOOOOO HOOOOOOO! Now that's what I call a confirmation shot, VG! You ROCK! So, we now know that Michael is behind Colton, and Jay is in front....surprising that Colton wasn't drowned...
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41. "RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuffle"
I've been working on this awhile now...trying to figure out the players. Rather than place this post in the SOTS3 where some of this is also being discussed, I'm putting it here for the continued on-going analysis of the future waterball chal.

There *is* a second Mystery Woman(MW2), as also noted by VG, who appears on the right side of the frames in the Sabrina waterball chal scene of so much analysis. This is a female and she has light hair(could be blond hair that is wet or brown hair w/highlights. No buff is seen on this MW2.

The waterball scene appears to show blue buffed Sabrina trying to either block or take-away the ball from orange buffed MW1. Unknown buffed Mystery Woman2(MW2) appears to be either also trying to take the ball away from orange buffed MW1....or she's there to help MW1 from being dis-emballed(sic):-p by Sabrina. My guess it's the first. In which case MW2 is a blue-buffed partner of Sabrina.

Here's some frames of MW2...

And a closer view....

So altho we don't know which color buff MW2 has on, we have these possibilities narrowed down via hair color: Kat, Kim or Chelsea.

AND...there is an image of orange buffed Mystery Woman1(MW1) that can be further analyzed. MW1 *does* have black hair which can be seen emerging from behind the left side of Sabrina's head. It is not noticed in the video at normal speed but can be seen in a frame by frame analysis of the video clip. The hair is not Sabrina's that is just moving around as it is a darker shade of black and emerges as a formed round shape inconsistent w/any hair of Sabrina flopping around.

Here's a frame by frame video clip w/IDs for your review and analysis.

So if orange buffed MW1 has black hair, then she could only be Alicia or Monica. It can't be Christina who also has black hair b/c she's seen to the left of the action in the continuous pan of the video.

Your thoughts?

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44. "RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuffle"
I was just discussing this elsewhere.

We suggested earlier that the blonde woman might be Kat, because of the blonde hair, as well as the sequence of her running with Sabrina in the background.

For now, though, let's say she's not identifiable. That would make the groupings Michael/Sabrina/unidentifiedwoman vs. Leif/Christina/unidentifiedwoman.

If the people on the Manono bench during this sequence are indeed Bill, Colton, Tarzan, and Jonas, then the woman has to be Alicia, since we have shots of her in the orange buff, whereas we don't have shots of Monica in this challenge at all.

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48. "RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuffle"
LAST EDITED ON 02-28-12 AT 02:44 PM (EST)

WOW, color me impressed with the frame by frame video that's even labeled, Freddy! Woo Hoo. Pointing out MW1 and MW2....I love it.

I'll be back later to comment....I'm flying out the door! But I will add this...per VG:

If the people on the Manono bench during this sequence are indeed Bill, Colton, Tarzan, and Jonas, then the woman has to be Alicia, since we have shots of her in the orange buff, whereas we don't have shots of Monica in this challenge at all.

Agree 100%.

Additionally, the blond MW2 must be either Chelsea or Kat. To me, I see Kat. This also sheds some light...

As VG noted, we can't know all of the pairings in the challenges, but seeing Sabrina behind Kat, when we KNOW that Sabrina is indeed in this competition, lends favor for the MW2 being Kat. At least it makes sense to me...



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51. "RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuffle"
In awe of the work by VG, BF, and FP!
Love your contributions jasonkola, so glad that you joined us here and at MESS.
You obviously have a very good eye ... freckles !

Re the tribal make-up, an obvious point of interest is how Manono is male-dominant 5-2 at this point, while Salani is 4-3. There is no sign of a sit-out to this challenge, so say this is Ep 5 and there are 14 people.

MANONO: Alicia, Bill, Christina, Colton, Jonas, Leif, Tarzan
SALANI: Chelsea, Jay, Kat, Kim, Michael, Sabrina, Troyzan

With Matt presumedly gone in Ep 3, there are 7 women and 8 men. If the women lose IC in Ep 4 (say the slingshot), I guess Monica is a reasonable boot from the alliance dynamics, although one has to wonder what saves Christina.

That would put an Ep 5 swap at 8-6. Obviously they could balance the genders, but it looks like they don't. I wonder if it's a pickem or a random swap. With Colton, Jonas, Leif, Tarzan on one tribe, it looks a bit like there could be a pickem with a man starting out on Manono and a woman on Salani, with one of the four misfits starting off the picking, as the tribe doesn't go for the muscular competitors, whereas Salani scoops up Jay and Michael, and only loses one member of its alliance of 5, Alicia.

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59. "RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuffle"
That would put an Ep 5 swap at 8-6. Obviously they could balance the genders, but it looks like they don't. I wonder if it's a pickem or a random swap. With Colton, Jonas, Leif, Tarzan on one tribe, it looks a bit like there could be a pickem with a man starting out on Manono and a woman on Salani, with one of the four misfits starting off the picking, as the tribe doesn't go for the muscular competitors, whereas Salani scoops up Jay and Michael, and only loses one member of its alliance of 5, Alicia.

EXCELLENT spec, OFG. I am in agreement, 100%. As you speculate, most likely it is a pick'em with one of the misfits starting the pick'em for Manono, and likely one of Kim/Chelsea/Sabrina starting the pick'em for Salani. Most likely it has to go, girl-boy-girl-boy, and perhaps the Salani's get first pick...Say Kim picks first, she picks Michael, then she would tell him who to pick next...Chelsea, then Michael would tell them who to pick next, Jay, then the girls would tell them to pick Sabrina, then she would pick Troyzan at that time, then Kat would be the only one left to pick....

Good job!


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64. "RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuffle"

FP: It can't be "girl-boy-girl-boy" since you are speculating 8 boys and 6 girls and the new tribes would both end up with 4 boys and 3 girls each which doesn't match your speculated tribes.

Also, if the chosen players are helping each other make picks there is no way Alicia and Christina would end up on the same tribe since Alicia hates Christina.

To get tribes with 5 boys & 2 girls on one tribe and 3 boys & 4 girls on the other the swap is either random (e.g. draw new buffs) or like in Gabon where you were free to choose any player next (Gillian chose Crystal chose Susie).

One other possibility is that the Manono tribe tells the man who does the "unforgivable betrayal" that he is no longer a member of Manono and must join Salani. Then if the picking is by alternating tribes then NuManono could end up with 5 men (4 Manono men + 1 Salani man) and 3 women. Unlikely but it makes the numbers work.

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65. "RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuffle"
Welcome aboard, Sheldor!
How's Glen?
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66. "RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuffle"
>Welcome aboard, Sheldor!
>How's Glen?

Thanks dabo! Glen (the only bird I ever loved) the Battle Ostrich is back in my possession! He even has a Facebook page! http://www.facebook.com/pages/Glen-the-Battle-Ostrich/151960051540634?sk=wall&filter=12

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67. "RE: 1 more time...tribes post shuffle"
You are right, Sheldor...can't be boy, girl, boy, girl picks. Could be just random pick'em's OR it could be pull buffs out of the bag...we'll see! thanks, and welcome to Blows!
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60. "Ep 5 - Tribal Shuffle"
Episode 5 will be the tribal shuffle, and the basketball water challenge will be for immunity in ep 5.

I would bet that our new tribes will be:

NuManono: Jonas, Leif, Colton, Bill, Gregzan, Alicia, and Christina
NuSalani: Kim, Chelsea, Sabrina, Kat, Michael, Jay, Troyzan

Wow, the blue team is going to be stacked, imo. Most likely Monica will be toast in episode 4. I really believe by the hair color, that the girl next to Kim standing on side lines is NOT Monica, as her hair is darker than Kim's. It would be noticeable, even from that distance.

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61. "RE: Ep 5 - Tribal Shuffle"
I agree that from a physical perspective the tribes would be very unbalanced. The producers will have to work even harder in creating non-physical challenges than with girls vs guys. I will have a hard time believing that NuManono wins many challenges if they end up like that.
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63. "RE: Ep 5 - Tribal Shuffle"
Yes, but they won't work to balance the challenges after the swap. The challenges are already developed. They will have planned a certain number as fairly gender neutral, and planned to go back to regular all out challenges with the swap.

They're not going to tweak all the challenges because of pickem results. It's just too bad if there's a weaker tribe.

The only time they cater to tribe differences is when a production twist like men vs. women or old vs. young has dictated the lack of parity.

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68. "You make the call!"
Okay, the bottom line is this...

I feel really good about all of the identities that have been uncovered in the above shot. But, the bottom line is, the face/head of the female next to Kim is obscured, possibly by a water droplet on the lens of the camera? That female is either Chelsea OR Monica. I have stated that to me her hair appears lighter than Kim's. Here is a pic of the women and their hair color...

...if I were a betting woman, and we all know I am , my money is on Chelsea for surviving tonights boot. I am betting that Monica will walk the walk.

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69. "RE: You make the call!"
Ya I am not 100% the Monica boot tonight. I am like 70% chance Monica 30% Chelsea. If Chelsea was not part of the 5 person alliance And if I was not a Chelsea fan my odds probably would be 50/50. The fact something big and unexpected happens tonight at TC makes me worried about the possibility Chelsea goes home. Monica going home would be less a surprise. Chelsea has been one who has spoken out against the choices of her alliance. Perhaps it could backfire on her.
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70. "RE: You make the call!"
LAST EDITED ON 03-07-12 AT 02:00 PM (EST)


All good points, Jason. Here's how we can line it up:

Factors to support a Monica boot:
1. Not in the majority alliance
2. The girl next to Kim in the vidcap of the standouts appears to have lighter hair than Kim
3. Hidden in the pre-boot episode, as seems to be a pattern so far this year
4. Fits with the flight of five spoiler...located, here. a white girl with long dark hair
5. If it were a Monica boot, it really wouldn't be such a an electrifying Tribal Council that leaves several castaways speechless...unless they expected Christina to go, and it was Monica in the end?

Factors that support a Chelsea boot:
1. Not clearly seen in the water basketball challenge
2. ALL OVER the promos for episode 4
3. Questions some of the decisions of her majority alliance
4. Certainly would fit with an electrifying Tribal Council that leaves several castaways speechless. No ifs, ands, or buts!


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03-07-12, 02:25 PM (EST)
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71. "RE: You make the call!"
I think we need to keep in mind that an "electrifying Tribal Council that leaves several castaways speechless" would NOT mean a blindside or surprise boot. The majority is in on the boot, no? So it's not a surprise for them.

So... to me, we can never think of a "speechless" plug to be directly related to a boot. It's something else - a backstab out in the open during the Jiffy questioning, a betrayal of one or more tribe members, something to do with the men offering up something, etc etc etc.

Remember the words... it's something that has never happened before, according to Jiffy. A blindside boot does NOT fit this in any way at all.

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03-07-12, 03:47 PM (EST)
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72. "RE: You make the call!"

You make a very valid observation, Pepe. We've seen blindsides throughout the history of the show. I had ventured a guess somewhere on these boards that perhaps a bigger cat fight than we have previously seen with the girls ensues, and who does it leave speechless? Jiffy. I have a feeling that Alicia and Christina are going to go at it, in a big way!


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PepeLePew13 24731 desperate attention whore postings
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03-07-12, 04:52 PM (EST)
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73. "RE: You make the call!"
LAST EDITED ON 03-07-12 AT 05:29 PM (EST)

That's possible about Alicia and Christina - but, remember the blurb that it's "several castaways" that are left speechless, not Jiffy.

Criteria:
- Castaways left speechless (but not Jiffy)
- Something "a first at TC, a game changer.....one of the most unexpected things that I've ever seen happen!"
- An unforgivable betrayal involving the men - also involving the women somehow? It's something that causes a drastic move that has never been seen before.


What could it be? Some ideas (including some that already have been thrown out there by others):

- The men ask to show up at TC and outs someone who committed a betrayal - perhaps Leif gives something to a certain woman and the men want to get it out in the open?

- Catfight to end all catfights on such a grand scale that it leads someone (i.e. Monica) to offer herself up to ask the others to vote her out (although 'asking the tribe to vote me out' has been done before).

- Jiffy asks the men to attend TC as well, either as a prize to win the right to eat and watch the ladies TC or to be present for a tribal swap (not sure if THAT has been done at TC) and the men do something such as outing someone who has betrayed or received something the betrayer gave away (as mentioned above). But the eat-and-watch-TC stuff has been done before, although the speaking out during such a TC hasn't been done.

- Or it could just be the hype machine from Jiffy and the CBS editors that ran amok, and they're just blowing smoke up our azzes to get us to watch.


Couldn't be (at least in my interpretation of the words) simply the following without something else happening:
- a blindside
- quitting
- asking to be voted out
- idol bounce
- the intended bootee being saved by a misplay by another (i.e. Tyson not following Rob's 3-3-3 vote scheme, then getting booted out himself)

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jasonkola 240 desperate attention whore postings
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03-07-12, 05:26 PM (EST)
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74. "RE: You make the call!"
LAST EDITED ON 03-07-12 AT 05:26 PM (EST)

I agree it may not have to do with the boot. In this video http://www.cbs.com/shows/survivor/video/2205761581/survivor-one-world-tribal-council-tour
on TC Jeff says if anyone leaves the set and dose not return they are out of the game. The cat fight could lead to someone storming out of TC and getting the boot.

I keep getting hung up on the "game changer" part of the teaser. It has to be not only something new but also something unexpected and a game changer. I keep coming back to the idea I had that the men exile the Leaf and at TC the women ask to allow him to join their team. If Jeff allowed this it would be a game changer as well as unexpected.

I also keep thinking about someone speculated on Sucks that maybe lightning strikes at or near TC. That would sure be electrifying and unexpected. It would sure leave some people speechless. But it dose not fit the game changer tease.

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Blind Freddy 444 desperate attention whore postings
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03-07-12, 05:59 PM (EST)
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75. "RE: You make the call!"
Very interesting Jasonkola....nice out-of-the-box thinking.

From the JP TC tour transcript (ty SurvivorFever)
------------------------------
Right here, this is the heart of it. These little stumps where Survivors plop down to be grilled by me sitting across from them. This really is the Tribal Council equivalent of our living room. This is where we hang out and talk about everything. The only thing is there's a million dollar stake attached to this living room. Because if you leave and don't come back, you're out of the game. So the goal at Tribal Council, every single time you're here is make sure it aint me. And the guy that's trying to stop you is me and I sit over there.
----------------------------------

When I first read that I thought this only was ref'ing the lack of a RI and chance to return to the game upon a boot. However it can be viewed as you interpret. And it definitely would fit w/Monica's demeanor of this season's arbitrator. And it fits the LL post boot descriptions of Monica...ie 'angel'.

So the scenerio unfolds at TC....Alicia vs Christina in the cat fight from hell w/Alicia determined to trash Christina....Monica attempts to problem solve and mediate...perhaps Alicia turns on her as well....in any event Monica has had enough negative energy and leaves TC and commits a voluntary exit from the game that's never been done quite like this before. Jaws drop over this unexpected event.

The only sticking point is how is this a 'game changer'? The only way this can be a 'game changer' is if the Female alliances are affected...ie Alicia is admonished by her alliance and all bets are off w/re to their alliances.

So not to stir the pot, but *if* Chelsea were to be the one who had 'enough' and walked off the TC set(instead of Monica), then that might be viewed as changing the game as the wrong alliance lost a member, tho it would still leave the GirlPower aliance up 4-2. Maybe this affects Kim's alliance ties b/c of the speced Chelsea exit. But Chelsea's over-the-top Facetime this last episode would make sense, something that is otherwise just not sitting right.

Again, nice out-of-the-box thinking Jason.

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VolcanicGlass 428 desperate attention whore postings
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03-07-12, 11:50 PM (EST)
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78. "RE: You make the call!"
In terms of the final tribe swap line-ups, what we have in terms of direct evidence:
MANONO: Alicia, Christina, Leif in play / Colton, Jonas + 2 more on bench
SALANI: Kat, Michael, Sabrina in play / Jay, Kim + 2 more on bench

That leaves Chelsea, Monica, Tarzan and Troyzan to place.

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03-07-12, 10:36 PM (EST)
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76. "No Bill post Tribal Shuffle "
This had to be from balance beam

after the win.
So it was high 5's like someone thought.

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03-07-12, 11:25 PM (EST)
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77. "RE: POST Tribal Shuffle Challenges Vidcaps"
FP, my apologies for taking that Bill shot at face value.
I had originally checked the E2 IC footage for it, but that sequence did not air, so I didn't dig any deeper. HUGE mistake as it turns, because a cursory look showed quite clearly that this was the E2 IC ladder structure.

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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03-08-12, 03:18 AM (EST)
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79. "RE: POST Tribal Shuffle Challenges Vidcaps"
When I made this post,
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/7824.shtml#33

my intent was to express doubt that Bill was really in the water basketball. I have had doubts about that, especially with all the clips we had from the water basketball being taken from the same heat, which we knew Bill was not in.

33. "Question re Bill"
Does this wooden structure appear in any caps that we know to be of the water basketball challenge?

I also didn't think the guy standing back with Manono looked dark enough.
But, I am not good with visuals of structures, so I let it go when the answer was that the structure was in the challenge. I figured it was just my deal that I couldn't figure out where it would be. C'est la guerre. I should have pushed my doubts more vigorously.

Lol, the whole imaginary reward basket fiasco is an example of why I find it pretty easy to accept I'm misguided.

But, VG, and FP, don't even think of feeling bad for not checking against that shot of the balance beam structure. Your work this season has been incomparable and I salute you both, and not to forget Blind Freddy! and so many others ...

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tribephyl 9688 desperate attention whore postings
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03-08-12, 03:45 AM (EST)
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80. "RE: POST Tribal Shuffle Challenges Vidcaps"
I should have pushed my doubts more vigorously.

My exact inner thoughts as well. I shoulda stuck with my gut.
After the end of the previous episode I knew it was Bill.
But ended up using the extremely logical part of myself to 'deduce' that a woman was going to leave. Damned 'Big' Brain.

I hope that this season stays as unpredictable and unsourced as long as possible, I am loving that we all were (and are) allowed to take the puzzle pieces and maneuver them around ourselves. Without having the outline passed out beforehand.
So what if we were wrong.
It'll just make us better prepared for the next chance.
And will lead to more GUT work. Sensing something is wrong is something quite a few of us have (I daresay all of us here) in our genes. Not acting on that feeling is where we seem to get ourselves into trouble.

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beaglemaster 107 desperate attention whore postings
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03-08-12, 09:23 AM (EST)
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81. "Blind sided....dang it! "
Same here.
I kept thinking "that doesn't look like Bill" in the blurry caps for the basket ball. but hey, it has to be because we have another shot of him fighting in the water. And besides everyone knows that Monica is next, right? I let myself get led this episode and assumed someone else did the due diligence to verify. No one to blame but myself.
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Flowerpower 7012 desperate attention whore postings
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03-08-12, 10:36 AM (EST)
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82. "Thoughts..."
LAST EDITED ON 03-08-12 AT 10:46 AM (EST)

First of all, I don't feel badly about posting what I thought. None of us should EVER feel badly about what we may think, or at least voicing what we think we see. That's all how things get uncovered. We are right about alot....for example, while we got ONE person wrong in the entire speculation about who is who in the water basketball....pretty DARN good, in my book.

Also, I remember when you posted that thought, OFG...
Does this wooden structure appear in any caps that we know to be of the water basketball challenge?

So, I did go back and look at the structures...look at the structure that Jiffy is standing on there, a prominent ladder...

And, we had NO pics of the actual basketball structures that they must be using to make baskets on....who knows, perhaps they have ladders on them as well....so, I don't know if that really would have made a difference. Also, look at Bill's expression, he looks like he's in the throws of a challenge, not big GRIN, HAPPY, High FIVING! Especially a basketball challenge....when you throw your arms up to receive a pass or to block someone making an attempt to shoot on the basket! This is typical posturing for a basketball game! And, it looks so sloppy, like they are opposing each other. A natural mistake, imo.

And Tribe...I agree, it was easy to see that Bill would be the next one to go for the guys, but we predicted that the guys would win the challenge, and we were RIGHT! This is a first, as Jiffy notes, I don't think ANY of us, save Parathor, really believed that ANY tribe would give their II away to the other tribe in order to GO to TC. So, we figured out as much as possible, imo. We even got that it was a ruse to get someone else out....(we speculated they would possibly try to perhaps get Colton out the next TC, not Bill). And, regarding your last point, yes, thank God we can try our best to figure it all out and it's NOT handed to us on a spoiled bootlist platter. As we have always said, may we always be a little wrong!

Now, on with the show....Here is the zoom in of the standouts, and I posted pics of bathing suits and heights, per VG, and then a vidcap of Gregzan's bathing trunks


Given that we know now that Monica is indeed there, she is either in the challenge going up against Sabrina as noted in Blind Freddy's post #41 in this thread, or she is standing next to Colton on his right, left on the frame. She or Alicia is the one that is obscured by Leif's thumb? This is my opinion, not fact!

Using the bathing suits to identify...you can see Colton first in the standouts blow up....then to Coltons left, going right on the frame, I think is Greg, note his bathing suit - greenish pattern and height matches, then it's Jonas on the far end, next to who I think is Gregzan. So, that leaves the mystery person, who I thought was Bill, must be Monica or Alicia. On the 5th and 6th shot of VG's progression, you can see she has dark hair, and her arm is slender...I think that Monica or Alicia must be wearing her buff over her chest, as it appears that she is bare chested...Also, Monica's bathing suit straps are string size, so easily obscured, missed. And, you can see from above that Alicia's straps are not significant either when she has her buff pulled up over her chest as well...***Another clue to the tribes being EVEN at the shuffle was that we definitely NOTED that they were even post shuffle....d'oh!

So far, and this is my best GUESS, this is what I THINK may be the tribes post shuffle...
nuManono: Leif, Colton, Gregzan, Jonas, Christina, Alicia, Monica
nuSalani: Michael, Troyzan, Jay, Sabrina, Kat, Kim, Chelsea

*ETA: Now we see that it is possible to pick one person from each of the original tribes to start a boy/girl pick'em. For Salani a female will start by picking a man, and that man must pick the next female, then she must pick another man...etc. Say Gregzan picks for nuManono first, and he picks Christina, then she picks Colton, then he picks Monica, and she picks Jonas, then he picks Alicia, then she picks Leif.

Then suppose the nuSalani tribe is started off with Sabrina and she picks Michael, then he picks Kim, then she picks Jay, then he picks Chelsea, then she picks Troyzan, then he picks Kat....

Easy to see that the guys and the girls will influence who to pick on their tribes.

I do believe that both darker haired girls are on the same tribe, and that it is Chelsea over on nuSalani. But, clearly, people could think differently.


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jasonkola 240 desperate attention whore postings
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03-08-12, 01:56 PM (EST)
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83. "RE: Thoughts..."
nuManono: Leif, Colton, Gregzan, Jonas, Christina, Alicia, Monica
nuSalani: Michael, Troyzan, Jay, Sabrina, Kat, Kim, Chelsea

If this is really how the tribes end up the Manono tribe will be a mess. Non only will they be the weaker tribe but the alliances will be weak. I can not see Christina, Alicia, and Monica working together. Most likely the girls will split up Alicia aligning with Colton and Gregzan. Christine and Monica would most likely align with Jonas and maybe Leif. This alliance match up if it happens would be most interesting. I would expect Alicia and Colton and Gregzan to be the next to go unless they can manage to win an IC.

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parathor 250 desperate attention whore postings
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03-08-12, 03:37 PM (EST)
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84. "RE: Thoughts..."
Hmm... it looks like Alicia is giving praise to Queen Colton (either before or after the shake-up). If this is the nu Manono tribe, then Colton's gang is still intact, and would likely pick off Christina, Monica, and Leif.

(if they were smart... which they are not)

An alternative would have Colton 100% bolt from the guys, vote with the girls, and knock off Leif, Gregzan, and Jonas.

Either way, yeah, Manono is not looking strong at all. They get nuked on strength, puzzle prowess, workers around camp... egads!

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VolcanicGlass 428 desperate attention whore postings
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03-08-12, 04:45 PM (EST)
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85. "RE: POST Tribal Shuffle Challenges Vidcaps"
It seems we all had questions about the identification of Bill in the waterball challenge, but we all let it slide.

I am not upset that we got it wrong. That's the game. It happens. What is frustrating is why we got it wrong. I made the basic mistake of not checking something that was established, rather than double-checking. Considering how fast I was able to find a match after the show aired last night, this was an avoidable error.

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Flowerpower 7012 desperate attention whore postings
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03-08-12, 05:04 PM (EST)
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86. "RE: POST Tribal Shuffle Challenges Vidcaps"
i don't know if it was avoidable or not, VG. Look at Jiffy's platform in the water basketball challenge, it is built the exact same way. And, one could also argue that perhaps the basketball net fixtures could be built atop similar platforms with ladders like that. I am sure that they build the frames and use them in multiple challenges if they can....and, as I have noted, the stance the guys are in, in the pic with Bill in it, is clearly a basketball action stance....rebounding, catching passes, blocking passes, etc.

I didn't let it slide when OFG questioned the platform....I went and looked at the platforms that were from the balance beam challenge shots, and the overheads of it....I was convinced that they were indeed the same platforms as could be used in the water basketball challenge. I had to presume that they would use them again...repeatedly. So....


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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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03-08-12, 06:09 PM (EST)
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87. "RE: POST Tribal Shuffle Challenges Vidcaps"
Indeed you did ...

No blame or regrets, and much congrats to all for this season so far.

I always do a hindsight check when I make a big or even small but significant mistake. Much like VG's. It's all about looking at where I went wrong in hopes that my brain will make a note of the danger signs and have a better response to them next time.

I think it was the little robot on "lost in Space" that would warn "Danger, Will Robinson!" That's what I want to develop, an internal warning system.

When I was watching last night, first think I thought about during the show was that post I had made. I had a strong feeling Bill was not in water basketball there, and that was the key, and I dropped the ball on it ...

Will I do any better next time? Probably not, but I can hope.

I think that is likely Monica standing in back who appeared to be Bill, but it may be Alicia. Either way, both should be on Manono.

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